Raiding the Infirmary (And The Nursery)
for 2006 and Beyond
11/17/05
The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense
of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check
is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s
a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information.
This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s
potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining
the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines
that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.
Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic,
he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and
help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep
a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This
way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider,
or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast
as you can!
The Gut Check would like to title this week’s column A
Dynasty League Primer for Mike MacGregor but out of fairness
to Mike, he is dominating our Ironman
Dynasty League on his own. Yours Truly was off to a good start,
but his running back-weak team is going the way of the Cadillac
at this point. Still, the Gut Check has made a good living off
castaways where a little more patience would have paid off for
the original owner. The best players to target via trade or waiver
wire that can provide you the greatest return on a small investment
are players with deflated values due to injury, owners impatient
with longer development curves, and young, talented players stuck
behind established stars. Here are profiles of several players
for consideration if you are looking to build for 2006.
Residing at the Infirmary, But Should be
Ready Next Year
Kellen Winslow, Jr. —
The best thing that may have ever happened to the Browns tight
end was to face some adversity off the football field. The Gut
Check isn’t saying it’s good the kid got hurt, but
the incident has forced Winslow, Jr. to re-evaluate his approach
to his career. One can’t choose how life is going to test
you, but eventually it tests all of us in some form. Winslow,
Jr. had it easier than most as the son of a Hall of Famer with
similar physical talents. Unlike his dad, who had to earn his
fame, Winslow, Jr. had an advantage. This doesn’t mean that
he didn’t have to prove his talent. Coaches are going to
play the most talented player. But Winslow, Jr. could slide by
on being less mature.
He’ll no longer be coddled as the first-round draft pick
from the same school as the Browns’ former coach. Winslow
will not only have to prove that he is still a talented athlete
but also demonstrate to the team that he’s going to approach
his career as a professional. The Gut Check believes Winslow,
Jr. has the attitude of a fighter and this incident will toughen
him in the right way. The Browns are building a solid foundation
and Romeo Crennel is the type of coach the Cleveland community
is going to grow to respect as much as any they’ve had in
recent memory. Braylon Edwards is already showing flashes of elite
skill, and the team is playing tough in just about every game.
Winslow, Jr. will be counted on to open up the running game with
his ability to keep linebackers and safeties honest with the short
and intermediate passing game. At Miami, Winslow had a penchant
for clutch plays on 3rd or 4th down, and the 4th quarter. Plus,
the pressure on Winslow, Jr. won’t be as great with the
other young skill players surrounding him. Count on the Browns
tight end evolving more into a “let my actions on the field
speak for me,” kind of player. While others counting to
make humorous jokes about Winslow, Jr., scoop this guy off the
waiver wire or ask for him as basically a throw-in player in a
trade. He’ll most likely command a bit more value than you’d
expect, but you still could get him for a relatively good deal.
Koren Robinson — The
Gut Check considers Robinson an infirmary guy because if he didn’t
have an alcohol problem, he’d probably be lighting it up
for the Seahawks. If you are going to show up hung over or drunk
at practice, a court hearing, and sentencing, it’s not a
stretch to believe Robinson wasn’t on the wagon on game
day, either. Just trying to function at a desk job with a raging
hangover is rough. So imagine repeated sprints that often end
with getting hit hard and/or trying to catch a ball thrown the
equivalent of 60-80 mph. No wonder the guy couldn’t hold
onto anything thrown his way. Yours Truly is surprised the guy
wasn’t holding onto his head most of the time.
As mentioned earlier this week, FOX Sports sideline
report Jay Glazer interviewed Robinson prior to the Vikings match
up with the Giants and recounted how candid the receiver was about
his problem. When Robinson entered rehab, he described being in
a room with fellow addicts and had the typical denial that he
wasn’t like these guys at all. But as the days went by,
Robinson realized that he was in fact just like them. He said
the first thing he did was drop all of his friends. Changing one’s
surrounding environment may be one of the most important things
to do when overcoming something this serious. Robinson gets it,
and the Vikings—with all their problems aside—realize
they have a reclamation project that could approach the success
of a similar player-salvage in Cris Carter.
How does The Gut Check know Robinson understands and appreciates
his new opportunity? The guy is playing special teams, and playing
well enough to make a positive impact on game day. The Vikings
are even letting Robinson learn a bit of the offense at time and
slowly incorporating him into game situations. They see that Robinson
is on the right track, and they are giving him the chance to make
real changes in his life. This was a first round pick that many
scouts figured could give his former college teammate Torry Holt
some competition as to who is the best receiver out of NC State.
A Robinson, Williamson, and Burleson-led receiving corps could
be more dangerous in reality than the hype of the Seattle corps
that had many so excited a couple of years ago. Robinson is likely
on many waiver wires this time of year. Scoop this guy up and
be glad you did…
Michael Clayton — How
far can a guy drop in the span of year? Ask Clayton, a 1000-yard
receiver that thrilled fantasy owners as a rookie last year only
to wreak havoc on many drafts in 2005. Clayton bulked up in an
attempt to improve his game but it wound up being the wrong move
because he lost his speed and acceleration. To make matters worse,
Clayton dislocated his shoulder in training camp and it has hampered
him throughout the first half of the seasons. Now Clayton is dealing
with a minor knee injury, and Jon Gruden’s patience is wearing
thin this season.
This doesn’t mean Clayton is going to disappear into anonymity
as player next year. This is a kid that was known for his work
ethic and maturity coming out of school. Clayton will get back
into his rookie year shape and win the trust of his teammates
and coaching staff in 2006. An 80-reception, 1193-yard, 7-Td rookie
year isn’t a fluke. Unless Clayton has some underlying attitude
problem not reported in the media, expect much better from the
Buccaneer receiver next season. This is another player that most
owners won’t come off easily, but his value is about as
low as it will get. If you want to take advantage of it, package
a deal that’s more in favor of the owner that has Clayton
but only enough to recognize you are approaching Clayton’s
value from last year.
Lee Suggs — Here’s
a player that has shown great promise, but the injury-riddled
start to his career has earned him the moniker, Mr. Glass
by our regulars at the FFToday Forums. As talented as Suggs is,
he’s earned that nickname. He’s also lost any chance
of showing his goods in Cleveland in 2005. Nor is it likely any
team will trade for Suggs with the desire to have him as a starter.
Then why does The Gut Check believe Suggs is a good value? Since
the position has a high rate of injury—Green, McAllister,
Holmes, Julius Jones, Thomas Jones, Cadillac Williams, Corey Dillon,
and Domanick Davis account for 25% of the opening day starters
in 2005 alone—talented depth will continue to be a desired
commodity in the NFL. Thomas Jones never seemed to stay healthy
to start his career. Now the Bears have a tough time keeping him
off the field, regardless of injury.
Whether in Cleveland or elsewhere, Suggs is the type of talent
that could earn a chance to start in a variety of ways. He’s
a low-risk pick because he should be an easy player to pry away
from an owner or acquire off the waiver wire. If Suggs had any
devastating injuries like Kijana Carter, then the situation would
be different. As bad as Suggs’ injury history has been,
none of the problems he’s had in the pros have had to do
with his legs. Keep this in mind when everyone else is ready to
write him off completely.
Peter Warrick — Now here’s
a guy with some knee issues, but if he can recover without relapses
this season then Warrick could be a great addition to a Seahawks
offense that runs a system perfect for this receiver’s talents.
Warrick has good hands, works well with his quarterback, and has
great skills with the ball. Bobby Engram isn’t getting any
younger, and Warrick is a more physically talented player with
a similar skill set. Warrick has also wowed the Seahawks with
his pass catching skills in practice. He should be available on
most waiver wires.
About to Graduate Nursery School (The Diapers
are Coming Off)
Greg Jones — Actually,
after this weekend Jones has graduated and will likely see his
value inflated, but it’s still not a bad idea to inquire.
Jaguars Brad Meester has been quoted by a variety of sources,
including NFL.com, describing Jones as a runner that spots holes
very well and if there isn’t hole he does a great job of
creating them. These are a couple of reasons why Blesto Scouting
Services rated Jones as the top RB in the country prior to the
2003 season. The Jaguars may be coming back around to permanently
keeping Jones as a halfback in this offense. Two years removed
from ACL surgery, Jones is regaining enough speed to be an effective
runner on plays to the outside. On the surface it looks like there’s
a changing of the guard in Jacksonville. Jimmy Smith is “still
the #1 WR” but he’s going to rotate in and out with
Wilford, Jones, and Williams during the games. Alvin Pearman was
regularly spelling Fred Taylor and showing promise. Now, Greg
Jones is filling in admirably and earning the respect of his teammates
with Taylor hurting. Jones value is already climbing to the point
it was at just after the Jaguars drafted him, but there’s
likely enough owners out there that haven’t noticed it yet
so at least try to take advantage.
Teyo Johnson — Johnson
was billed as a TE/WR hybrid that could wreak havoc either in
a three-point stance or split out from the line. The fact he was
under-whelming as a Raider is not a good sign, but he’s
talented enough to deserve a second chance. He’ll get one
in the off-season if he can show a commitment to Denny Green.
If you hear good things about Johnson by mini-camp, you may want
to take a flier on the guy. There are enough weapons in Arizona
that Johnson could benefit if line play improves.
Doug Gabriel — Gabriel
has been one The Gut Check’s regular, Under The Radar picks
for the past two years. The Raider receiver continues to progress,
and he’s that the point where he’s consistently performing
at least as well as highly regarded, Jerry Porter. ESPN
columnist Len Pasquerilli often cites NFL personnel men having
good things to say about Gabriel, so don’t be surprised
if the 3rd year receiver winds up getting a chance to start somewhere
else in 2006. If it happens, he has the speed, hands, and desire
to be a quality starter for many years.
Still In the Incubator, but the Talent is Evident
Stefan LeFors — The Carolina
quarterback will make Chris Weinke expendable by 2006 and if he
receives any opportunities to sub for Delhomme, he’ll impress
along the lines that Atlanta QB Matt Schaub has people talking
about him as a future starter. LeFors passing skills are comparable
to Drew Brees, but the Louisville talent possesses even greater
physical talent. Add 2-3 inches to his height and 20 pounds to
his frame, and LeFors would have had a good shot at being regarded
more than Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers. LeFors will be the kind
of QB that will seem to come out of nowhere when he gets his chance,
but if you have the luxury of a deep roster and want someone to
hold onto, LeFors is a good bet.
Bradlee Van Pelt — Another
great athlete at the QB position. The difference between he and
LeFors is their development as passers. Van Pelt has the size
scouts and coaches love, but he was raw. The son of the former
all-pro Giant LB was also a wild child that didn’t take
the craft of football seriously. This has changed dramatically
in the past year and his rapid development earned him the backup
position to Jake Plummer. Don’t think for a minute that
Mike Shanahan wouldn’t find a more time-tested veteran if
he didn’t feel good about Van Pelt.
While Plummer is playing as well as he has in years, all it takes
is one play for Van Pelt to wind up in the game. Ask Don Majkowski,
Trent Green, and Kurt Warner—they were entrenched starters
before Brett Favre, Warner as a Ram, and Marc Bulger. Van Pelt’s
new approach to becoming a student to the game will only enhance
his natural toughness and passionate play on the field. The Gut
Check doesn’t recommend picking this guy up right now unless
you have Jake Plummer. But he has enough potential to remember
his name.
Jarrett Payton — Yes,
The Gut Check has officially latched onto this RB and won’t
let go. But Travis Henry has been a disappointment, Chris Brown
has been up and down, and Payton has continued to show improvement
week to week. The RB has strong skills as a pass blocker and receiver,
and with a full off-season under his belt with the Titans in 2006,
could be a surprise of training camp. He’ll easily be available
as a free agent in most fantasy leagues, but he’s a good
late round, waiver pick up in early spring to see if the situation
in Tennessee—injury (Brown and Henry), drug abuse (Henry),
picking up underage girls (Henry), or fumbles (Henry) give Payton
increase chances.
Obvious…
Daunte Culpepper — if
someone cut him and you don’t have much depth at QB, grab
him and wait. Even if it’s another year before he’s
fully healthy. Culpepper is too talented to pass over. Will the
rumors of him going to Arizona become a reality? Who knows, but
either way you’ll most likely benefit.
Charlie Frye — Cleveland
will be giving Frye a serious look in 2006. He has shown poise
in limited time and could be regarded as the future of a well-coached
franchise on their way up.
Philip Rivers — One of
these signal callers in San Diego is going somewhere next year
and where ever the destination, it’s likely a starting gig.
Baltimore could be a possibility. Boller hasn’t impressed,
and GM Ozzie Newsome shared some success on the field with a QB
that shared many of Rivers stylistic strengths and weaknesses.
Terrell Rosenhaus — for
some owners, fantasy football is more serious an investment of
time than others. Take advantage of owners (Philly homers, maybe?)
that want to unload the WR. Why Terrell Rosenhaus? If Bill Parcells
winds up with this receiver on his team, the coach will have no
problem calling him Mrs. Terrell Rosenhaus, espec9ally if he sees
anything remotely close to what’s happened this season.
Considering that Parcells referred to Terry Glenn as “She,”
and Curtis Martin as “One Game Wonder,” it could be
even more entertaining in Dallas.
This Week’s Scouting Profile and
Checklist — TE
Joe Klopfenstein, University of Colorado.
The 6-6, 245-lb., senior is a terrific, receiving tight end that
does a great job of adjusting to the ball. Colorado seems blessed
to have a few good tight ends on the team, so Klopfenstein has
the advantage of getting to run more patterns on pass plays rather
than staying in to block. Speaking of blocking, this has been
regarded as a mediocre skill set for him. Colorado State is not
top-flight competition in many respects, but Klopfenstein showed
no problems as a pass or run blocker in the opener. We’ll
see if this is an area of his game that he’s worked on to
improve as the season progresses.
The Gut Check believes this prospect will become a reliable receiver
in just about any NFL system, but the West Coast offense will
exploit his receiving skills the best. Klopfenstein is a good
athlete, but he may get overshadowed by some of the certain combine
wonders that come out from year to year. Still, it’s likely
he’ll at worst be a late first day/early second day pick.
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