Fantasy Gold Or Fool’s Gold?
10/5/06
The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense
of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check
is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s
a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information.
This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s
potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining
the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines
that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.
Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic,
he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and
help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep
a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This
way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider,
or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast
as you can!
Whether you’re riding high at 4-0 or in the cellar at 0-4,
these next 2-3 weeks are important to determine whether your squad
is built on a solid foundation or resting precariously on a house
of cards. In most cases, four to six weeks should be enough to discern
the fantasy gold from the fool’s gold. Within the next 2-3
weeks FFToday will be running the initial 2006 results through the
Crank Score Calculator, but at this point yours truly will attempt
to combine stats with common sense to evaluate which opposing teams
have aided the inflation or deflation of a player values. Which
opposing teams does the Gut Check believe are making players look
better or worse than advertised and why is this the case?
FF Today’s Fantasy
Stat Pages are a great starting point for this evaluation.
Mike MacGregor has updated the pages to display a differential
between how many points a defense allows (or offense scores) by
position and the average defensive allowance (or offensive production)
for the rest of the NFL teams. How to use this valuable information
to your advantage? The Gut Check is going to take this data for
a test drive by running the data for three backs with stats that
don’t reflect their performance potential, stats that inflate
their potential unnecessarily and some mixed nuts (the kind of
players that have mixed results from week to week that drive owners
nuts).
Mixed Nuts
Kevin Jones—As mentioned
in Tuesday’s 20/20 Hindsight
column, Jones has a very drastic dichotomy of good/bad performances.
Let’s see if the data in Mike’s Fantasy Stats Pages
provide some useful information to predict the rest of Jones’
season. The Lions’ starter vaulted himself to the #12th
spot in fantasy points per game for RBs after two excellent weeks
of production against the Packers and Rams. Here’s how the
RB position (mainly Jones) performed against the NFL Average for
the position.
| Lions RB Comparison to
NFL Average |
| |
DET Avg |
NFL Avg. |
Dif. |
| Last 3 Weeks |
29.3 |
22.9 |
27.90% |
| Last 5 Weeks |
25.6 |
22.7 |
12.80% |
| Season |
25.6 |
22.7 |
12.80% |
| The Detroit Lions score
significantly more fantasy points on average
at the Running Back position than the NFL average (last
5 weeks) |
|
On the surface this looks promising, but should one examine the
frame of reference a bit closer. Are the Rams and Packers run defenses
really that good? At the same time Jones had to face Seattle and
Chicago in the first two games. Seattle’s run defense differential
is a –9.7%, which is considered a ‘Neutral matchup.’
The differential would be even lower if not for Thomas Jones’
big effort on Sunday night. Speaking of Chicago, the Bears run defense
differential is an impressive –27.8%. In other words, backs
versus Chicago score 27.8% fewer points than the average RB against
the other NFL defenses.
The Gut Check presumed the Rams were a bad run defense, but their
12.3% differential indicates, backs only do slightly better than
average against them. Jones did better than Frank Gore, Edgerrin
James, and the Bells of Denver. Green Bay’s differential
is a horrible 33%, but Jones and the Saints’ Deuce McAllister
had huge games while Chicago and Philly had sub par outings.
Based on this information, the Gut Check believes Kevin Jones
isn’t going to be a bust this year, but his current spot
as the 12th-best RB in FFpts/Gm might be his highpoint of the
season. Definitely start Jones as a #2 RB, but don’t give
away the rest of your RB stable because you think you found a
centerpiece for your fantasy lineup.
Fantasy Fool’s Gold
Ronnie Brown—Brown is
the 9th-ranked RB in traditional scoring setups, but over 36%
of his points came from one game, a two-touchdown effort against
Pittsburgh where he had 15 carries for 30 yards. Interestingly
Pittsburgh was the toughest defense Brown faced in terms of run
defense differential:
| Pittsburgh's Run Defense
Comparison to NFL Average |
| |
PIT Avg |
NFL Avg. |
Dif. |
| Last 3 Weeks |
12.1 |
18.0 |
-32.80% |
| Last 5 Weeks |
14.1 |
17.9 |
-21.20% |
| Season |
14.1 |
17.9 |
-21.20% |
| Playing against the Pittsburgh
Steelers represents a negative matchup for
opposing Running Backs relative to the NFL average (last
5 weeks) |
|
As the Gut Check discussed last week, touchdowns make a huge
difference in fantasy production. These two touchdowns from short
yardage disguised a sub par outing from a yardage standpoint.
Unfortunately for Brown, his less than impressive performances
against much weaker defenses expose the weak offense that negatively
impacts his production.
| Tennessee's Run Defense
Comparison to NFL Average |
| |
TEN Avg |
NFL Avg. |
Dif. |
| Last 3 Weeks |
30.2 |
18.0 |
67.80% |
| Last 5 Weeks |
26.2 |
17.9 |
46.40% |
| Season |
26.2 |
17.9 |
46.40% |
| Playing against the Tennessee
Titans represents a positive matchup for opposing
Running Backs relative to the NFL average (last 5 weeks). |
|
| Houston's Run Defense Comparison
to NFL Average |
| |
HOU Avg |
NFL Avg. |
Dif. |
| Last 3 Weeks |
32.8 |
18.0 |
82.2% |
| Last 5 Weeks |
31.0 |
17.9 |
73.2% |
| Season |
31.0 |
17.9 |
73.2% |
| Playing against the Houston
Texans represents a positive matchup for opposing
Running Backs relative to the NFL average (last 5 weeks). |
|
Brown’s points versus Tennessee and Houston were a paltry
10 and 11.1, respectively. Not a good sign for a back that just
finished the easiest portion of his schedule against the run. The
Gut Check isn’t questioning Brown’s talent—the
offensive line and quarterback play is the problem—but the
second year back’s opportunities in the red zone dwindle with
a suspect passing game. All four games were close contests, so it’s
not as if the run was taken away due to the game situation. The
Gut Check finds this information disconcerting for Brown owners.
If the passing game doesn’t improve soon, Ronnie Brown’s
production won’t get much better.
Hidden Fantasy Gems
Joseph Addai—The stat
performances for Addai really say it all. When the rookie back
receives more than 10 touches his numbers are impressive. When
he sees 10 or fewer, Addai has paltry totals.
| |
Rushing |
Receiving |
|
| Week |
Starter |
Opp |
Result |
Att |
Yard |
Avg |
TD |
Target |
Rec |
Yard |
Avg |
TD |
FFPts |
| 1 |
N |
at NYG |
W 26-21 |
7 |
26 |
3.7 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
22 |
7.3 |
0 |
4.8 |
| 2 |
N |
HOU |
W 43-24 |
16 |
82 |
5.1 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
22 |
11 |
1 |
13.4 |
| 3 |
N |
JAC |
W 21-14 |
3 |
15 |
5 |
0 |
5 |
3 |
13 |
4.3 |
0 |
2.8 |
| 4 |
N |
at NYJ |
W 31-28 |
20 |
84 |
4.2 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
15 |
5 |
0 |
15.9 |
|
The Giants have a neutral run differential score and the Jags
are an impressive –19% in the same category, but it’s
not as if Indianapolis gave Addai enough chances to establish
a rhythm. The Giants game was Addai’s first NFL opportunity
and the Jaguars contest was one where the Colts were behind early
and Jacksonville looked so adept at driving down the field on
their defense, Indianapolis abandoned the run.
When you view the Jaguars stats versus the run thus far, you
can see teams that stuck with the run found success.
| |
RUSHING |
RECEIVING |
|
Player
|
Team
|
Week
|
JAC
Result |
Att
|
Yard
|
TD
|
Target
|
Rec
|
Yard
|
TD
|
FFPts
|
| Julius
Jones |
DAL |
1 |
W 24-17
(h) |
17 |
72 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
39 |
0 |
17.1 |
| Marion
Barber |
DAL |
1 |
W 24-17
(h) |
3 |
13 |
0 |
4 |
2 |
13 |
0 |
2.6 |
| Verron
Haynes |
PIT |
2 |
W 9-0
(h) |
2 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
5 |
26 |
0 |
3.2 |
| Willie
Parker |
PIT |
2 |
W 9-0
(h) |
11 |
20 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
0 |
2.6 |
| Dominic
Rhodes |
IND |
3 |
L 14-21
(a) |
14 |
48 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4.8 |
| Joseph
Addai |
IND |
3 |
L 14-21
(a) |
3 |
15 |
0 |
5 |
3 |
13 |
0 |
2.8 |
| Clinton
Portis |
WAS |
4 |
L 30-36
(a) |
27 |
112 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
28 |
0 |
20.0 |
| Ladell
Betts |
WAS |
4 |
L 30-36
(a) |
11 |
37 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
4.1 |
| Mike
Sellers |
WAS |
4 |
L 30-36
(a) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
0 |
0.6 |
| Last
3 Weeks (2 to 4) |
68 |
238 |
1 |
21 |
15 |
83 |
0 |
38.1 |
| Last
5 Weeks (1 to 4) |
88 |
323 |
2 |
27 |
18 |
135 |
0 |
57.8 |
| Season |
88 |
323 |
2 |
27 |
18 |
135 |
0 |
57.8 |
|
Dallas and Washington ran the ball more than 15 times and the
resulting totals were vastly better than those teams that abandoned
the run despite the fact the contest was still close!
Mark Twain once said, “Facts are stubborn, but statistics
are more pliable.” Because the NFL season is far from over
very little is fact from a statistical viewpoint. Yet given enough
stats, you can find some common sense among all the numbers—or
if the Gut Check is wrong about these three players, delude yourself
with numbers…
Week 4 League Updates
Fantasy
Auctioneer Experts Invitational: The Gut Check is 3-1 after
a 3-point loss where he came into Monday night with Donald Driver
and Reggie Brown, but on the wrong side of a 14-point deficit.
Both players had disappointing outings that culminated with injury
and yours truly fell short of what appeared to be a likely comeback
victory. Although the Gut Check said he’d start McNair,
he changed his mind and went with Carr. This was a good move,
but the decision to go with Fred Taylor over Maurice Jones-Drew
cost him. This week, the Gut Check dropped Keenan McCardell and
took a flier on the Bucs Michael Clayton. Neither receiver is
off to a good start, but the Gut Check believes the rookie Gradkowski
might lean on the short to intermediate passing game and Clayton
will be the likely recipient of more targets.
Projected Starting Lineup: McNair,
Jackson, Cadillac, Reggie Brown*, Donald Driver*, Horn, Heap,
Stover, and the Ravens Defense. *If one can’t suit up, Michael
Clayton will be the sub.
Ironman
3 Dynasty League (40-man rosters with IDP): Yours truly (team
name Out To Lunch) fell to 2-2 after Brian Westbrook was a late
scratch. The Gut Check made some updates to his secondary last
week benefited from his additions of Glenn Earl, and Charles Woodson,
but the fact his one-back lineup (others on bye) turned into an
empty backfield (the late insertion of Ryan Moats garnered minimal
points) contributed to a 2-point loss.
Projected Starting Lineup: Leftwich,
Westbrook, Cadillac, Berrian, Fitzgerald, Gabriel, McMichael,
Lindell (if Viniatieri isn’t ready), Rod Coleman, Kyle Vanden
Bosch, James Hall, Derrick Johnson, Channing Crowder, Mike Vrabel,
Karlos Dansby, Walt Harris, Charles Woodson, Sammy Knight, and
Sean Jones.
SOFA
Fantasy Auction League: The Gut Check lost his bid for sole
possession of first place when he ran into a buzz saw called Larry
Johnson, Steve Smith, Isaac Bruce, and Mike Furrey…yes Mike
Furrey. Yours truly is 2-2, but he gets Amani Toomer and Cadillac
back from the bye week. He’ll also be going with Chad Pennington
as his starter now that there’s little doubt Kurt Warner
will be Matt Leinart’s caddy for the rest of the way.
Projected Starting Lineup: Pennington;
LT; Cadillac; Driver; Toomer, Wayne; Watson; Akers; Bucs Defense.
MADFAD (Dynasty Contract League w/IDP
and Fluctuating Player Values): This is played on CBS,
so the Gut Check can’t provide a link. His team fell to
2-2 after meeting another buzz saw performance from his opponent.
Throw in the late scratch of Westbrook, two high-scoring defensive
players on bye, and Stallworth’s hammy and you see the expectations
were low for week 4. Maroney is beginning to look like an enticing
option, but Gore and Westbrook will start if ready. This league
goes off the power point system determined by head-to-head record,
total points, and breakdown record. The Gut Check was 8th out
of 10th in week one; 5th out of 10th in weeks two and three; but
dropped back to 7th after a dreadful performance.
Projected Starting Lineup: Leftwich,
Westbrook, Gore (or Dillon, Drew, or Maroney), C. Johnson, Moss/Gabriel
(not sure, likely Gabriel), Galloway, Shockey, Bulluck, Vilma,
Feeley, Vanden Bosch, Umenyiora, Polamalu, and A. Wilson.
Local League (Traditional re-draft
and scoring): Another CBS league, the Gut Check is back
to 2-2 with another big week and a fully loaded lineup. He is
now only 2 points off the total points lead. Thomas Jones would
have been a better start over Reggie Bush, but at this point yours
truly has to decide among Bush, Jones, and Addai as his #2 RB.
He was also able to land Charlie Frye off waivers as a backup
now that Warner has been benched.
Projected Lineup: Favre, LJ,
Bush, Joey Galloway, Marvin Harrison, Greg Jennings, Marques Colston,
Todd Heap, Stover, and Ravens defense.
FFTOC: The Gut Check is 90th
out of 618 entries thus far and has a minute, 0.12-point of an
edge in the division standings. He’s still adjusting his
lineup, but Lamont Jordan looks like a decent play this week before
the iron door of fantasy purgatory swings shut for the rest of
the season.
Fantasy Football Handbook Expert Mock:
The Gut Check has moved up to 6th out of 12th in the total points
league after big performances from McNabb and Jordan. Yours truly
didn’t realize this league scores off the best player performances
from roster, so he’s not even going to project a lineup.
You can select the link for the roster to see the Gut Check’s
options that he chose in late May…
|
