The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 98
A Projections Primer Part 3: WRs
7/26/07

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

The Gut Check has decided to provide a historical overview of fantasy stats that will help owners avoid the common pitfall or projecting player performance—extreme over-and under-valuation of players. Last week, yours truly profiled the quarterback position. This week the focus is receivers.

Historical Stats For Fantasy Receivers

The key components one must consider when projecting receiver performance:

• Total Fantasy Points
  
• Targets
  
• Receptions
  
• Receiving Yards
  
• Receiving Touchdowns

Pretty straightforward, but the way many people project stats they don’t bother to view how each stat influences the other. For instance, one isn’t demonstrating adequate knowledge of the position if one predicts a receiver to gain 1400 yards but sets the receptions so low, the average yardage per catch is 7 to 8 yards higher than the historical average. If one views the best performances with these stats, one should get a stronger idea of how to project performance.

Fantasy Points—These point totals are for a standard scoring fantasy league: 1 point per 10 yards receiving and 6 points per touchdown:

When we compare WR stats with RB stats we see (in terms of total fantasy points) the top 20 receivers have actually become less valuable in comparison to backs in the past few decades.

For all three decades, it appears the top 7-8 backs have significantly better point totals than the top 7-8 WRs then the point gap narrows with the lesser-ranked players. This supports the idea that there are only a few stud receivers in a given year, at most. Even so, the best receivers were at best (in the 90s) ranked on par with the 5th or 6th ranked back and now closer to the 8th or 9th best back in this decade. Interestingly enough, the 90s was a decade where the receiver position temporarily experienced enough of an upswing in points where one would seriously consider drafting a top WR in the mid-first round. And the reason was really one player, Jerry Rice.

Yardage—The top 30 fantasy performances since the advent of the 16-game season is a testament to the 49ers receiver. Rice appears on this list an amazing seven times—and 50% of the top 10 fantasy performances all-time for a receiver are his! The next best receivers in terms of appearances in the top 30 are Marvin Harrison (4) and Randy Moss (3). Rice has the best fantasy-point total (280.8), the best yardage season (1848), the best td total (22), and the third-best reception total in a season (122). If Rice isn’t mentioned as one of the top five players in fantasy football history—and in my opinion real football—you haven’t absorbed the scope of his impact on the game. His stats and impact on the league’s offenses and defenses were revolutionary.

Jerry Rice aside, the very best receiving performance in a season would place Rice as a better draft pick than the #5 RB in this decade. Think about that fact for a bit. Before those of you who are unusually optimistic about Randy Moss’ move to New England, think about Rice before you predict an all-time great performance from Moss in 2007. Picking the right wide receiver to perform as the best at his position in a given year is hard enough, picking one to perform on par with the top backs in the game is at another level altogether. Even if Calvin Johnson turns into a mix of Randy Moss and Terrell Owens without the bad aftertaste, it’s unlikely you draft any receiver in the top 7-10 spots in a fantasy league.

The average reception total for these top 30 performances is 100. Interestingly, 50% of the 100-reception seasons have occurred in this decade. A huge historical increase, but as the stats indicated earlier, the increased fantasy impact of receivers remains minimal in non-point per reception leagues.

That may have to do with the fact that only 22 receivers have ever surpassed this list’s average total of 1494 yards. One can hypothesize that high-yardage players with high reception totals play in west coast offenses where there are a significant number of 5 to 10-yard routes, but you would be incorrect. Of the 100-reception players on this list, only 5 of these performances came from players from west coast offenses. In fact, the rest were primary receivers in a more vertical-oriented, passing game.

The common denominator among receivers on this all-time list is touchdowns. The entire list had at least double-digit touchdowns, and 28 of 30 receivers had at least 12-score seasons. In fact, one-third of the pass catchers averaged at least a touchdown per game. The overall average number of touchdowns for this list is 14 scores—and only 28 receivers in the history of the 16-game season have even reached this number in a season. When projecting receiving touchdowns remember that the number 14 is rarified air.

Receptions

Returning to the subject of receptions, do more receptions predicate high fantasy production? The Gut Check will examine this momentarily, but maybe the stat we should examine first is targets. Although yours truly does not have a 30-year history of target data, stats from recent seasons suggest high target figures correspond with high fantasy production. Only 8 players out of the 90 receivers that constitute the top 30 fantasy producers at the position from 2004-20006 had fewer than 100 targets and none of them started all 16 games in those seasons! The top 10 receivers during this same period have at least 140 targets—8.75 targets per game. They also convert between 35%-40% of these targets into receptions. Unlike runners, whose target to attempt ratio is bad if lower than a 95% conversion rate, or quarterbacks and their 60% completion rate, a quality receiver generally produces elite stats with a conversion rate 2.5-3 times less than a the other positions.

This means a premium should be placed on targets for receivers. It also means if you are projecting receptions for a receiver, you should look at attempts for quarterbacks and calculate what percentage of these attempts will result in targets for specific receivers. This will help you develop a balanced method for projecting reception totals for a receiver in his offensive system. This may be something The Gut Check will tackle this season.

When you begin to calculate stats in a cause-and-effect based manner, you’ll find your overall projections will be tighter. You may miss out predicting those surprises, but so will most everyone else—you’ll still likely land the player at a bargain price if you incorporate average draft position data and your own observations/feeling about a player into the mix. If you project performance without incorporating your non-statistically based beliefs into the mix you can then use the stats to know where the player “should go off the board. “ This will help you make note of how much of a risk you may be taking if you go against the traditional stats to select a player at a different point. This is helpful, because few owners go exactly with their stats when making decisions. Drafting is neither science nor art—it’s a craft. An excellent drafter does a great job incorporating both aspects of evaluation to make a decision.

The all-time fantasy point leaders at WR averaged nearly 2 points per game more than their reception-leading counterparts. The obvious difference is the rate of touchdowns scored for the fantasy point leaders. In contrast, the yardage and receptions are only marginally different between the two lists. This comparison further underscores the importance of targets, because of this minor difference in receptions over the course of the season. The average difference in targets remain marginal and it appears it is worthwhile to draft a receiver who averages slightly fewer receptions per game in exchange for lower percentage plays with a higher reward.

Look at some of the names on this reception list that are not on the total fantasy point list: Brett Perriman, Art Monk, Tim Brown, Eric Metcalf Terance Mathis, and Keyshawn Johnson did not even sniff the total fantasy points all-time list. These are safe players to draft, but their roles were as possession receivers. Only Terance Mathis had double-digit scores. Even in point per reception leagues, the fantasy point leaders still hold the advantage due to such a small difference in receptions between the lists.

The point is to understand the nature of the receiver’s game. What role does he have in the offense? At what stage is his career from a physical standpoint? What kind of offense is his team running? These answers should impact your projections. For example, west coast offense players should have higher reception totals at a lower yardage per catch rate than primary threats in a downfield passing game. Or, an athletic possession receiver (i.e.—Larry Fitzgerald or Hines Ward) in his prime has a chance to amass more touchdowns than an athletic deep threat in a struggling offense (Andre Johnson).

Big play threats may have lower reception counts, but they still generate more yardage and scores. Names from the past and recent present such as Stanley Morgan, Santana Moss, David Boston, and Roy “The Jet Stream” Green epitomize the impact of the a good, vertical passing game.

It’s still very important to recognize that 1400-yard seasons are still all-too rare for the NFL. Slightly more than one third (8 out of 20) of the historical 1500-yard seasons came in the past seven years. Only once has a receiver surpassed this mark in the last three seasons.

100-reception seasons may be more common with the west coast offense, but these receivers are getting their total yardage in smaller chunks. As you can see from the chart comparison above, yardage leaders are closer to fantasy-point leaders in nearly every respect. While there is no clear statistical correlation at this point, the hypothesis of the vertical offenses or big-play receivers having a higher threshold for fantasy scoring seems accurate.

Touchdowns—Based on what has been discussed already it should follow suit that the all-time touchdown scorers correlate highly with the best fantasy scorers.

The comparison shows this is the case. Despite the touchdown leaders having the lowest average reception and yardage totals of the four profiled lists, the fantasy points per game are only marginally different from the point leaders and nearly the same as the yardage list.

Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, and Terrell Owens represent 43% of the seasons on this list and 36% of the list came from San Francisco’s offensive system. The make up of this list should tell you two things:

In the modern era of the 16-game season, it’s telling only 10 receivers in nearly 30 years have averaged at least one touchdown reception per game. If you are projecting touchdowns, anything over 13 is extremely rare (it’s only happened 28 times in 29 years; only 8 of these seasons occurring in the current decade. If you put all of this together, you should surmise only the rare player in a great offensive system consistently posts high rates of receiving touchdowns for more than a season in his career. Rice, Moss, Owens, Clayton, and Harrison played with All-Pro or Hall of Fame quarterbacks and will likely be in Canton soon (Clayton is the only question mark).

So what numbers are the receiver’s equivalent of a quality statistical season in correlation to say, an RB’s season of 300 carries and 1300 yards? Here are some small facts to consider the limits for projections:

• Flipper Anderson’s 1989 totals of 44 receptions and 1146 yards (26 yards per catch!) was the lowest catch total for a receiver to reach 1000 yards in a 16-game season. The Ram receiver was the ultimate deep threat. Stanley Morgan, Henry Ellard, and Chargers receiver coach, James Lofton also had multiple seasons of impressive yardage to reception ratios (over 1000 yards—sometimes over 1200 yards—on fewer than 50 receptions). But out of 1169 seasons of logged by a receiver only 7 receivers gained at least 1000 yards on fewer than 50 catches. Remember, most teams play a version of the west coast offense. Don’t project high yardage per catch totals for these receivers. If you are projecting more than 14 yards per catch, that player is most likely a great deep threat on a vertical passing offense like Scott Linehan or Mike Martz’s system or the play action pass is a big staple of the offense like the Colts or Broncos. If you believe a player will gain at least 1000 yards, historically that player will have at minimum, 65-72 receptions.
  
  
• There have only been 165 out of 4503 seasons where a receiver has gained at least 1200 yards. Nearly 42% of these seasons have occurred in the current decade. Based on the past few years, a 1200-yard season is something 7-10 receivers experience per year. With this in mind, 1150-1200 yards is a good, minimum baseline for yardage among top-tier, fantasy starters. A typical receiver in the next tier down will be within the 1000-1150-range. There is an additional 261 seasons (426 total at 1000 yards ore more) where a receiver gained at least 1000 yards.
  
  
• The seasons with the highest number of tds with the least amount of yards belong to two re-known deep threats
  

More than half of “The Burner” Turner’s receptions were scores and the next closest season of this type happened nearly 20 years later.

All this data should help one understand some basic points about projecting fantasy performance for wide receivers:

1. Yardage, touchdowns, and targets are the most consistent indicators for high fantasy performance.
   
   
   • Any projection of 14 touchdowns or more is treading into the territory of all-time greatness.
     
   • Any projection of 1400 yards is also rarified air, but becoming slightly more common for top WRs in the 00s.
     
   • 140 targets in season, or 8.75 per game, is a good benchmark for top-10 worthy performances from year to year.
   
   
2. Calculate targets by using previous seasons of stats and compare them to their corresponding quarterback’s attempts to gauge some level of accuracy.
   
   
3. A higher reception total does not always correlate with higher yardage totals due to the fact big-play receivers often compile very productive totals on lower reception counts.
   
   
4. Try to ascertain the role this receiver will have in his current offensive system and look at stat performances from similar players with the related roles.

If one considers these points and the analysis from this article when considering projections, he will have a better chance of separating likelihood from hype.