Running back is easily the position with the greatest opportunity for a rookie to make an immediate impact on a fantasy owner’s roster. The list of the best all-time rookie fantasy performances for tailbacks clearly illustrates this fact:

Generally, the key is how many carries or targets the rookie will see. Will the rookie be the feature back from day one, or will he at least be the sure-fire backup to the starter? Neither Dominic Davis nor Corey Dillon were on this list, but their rookie stretch runs as injury substitutes for Edgerrin James and Ki-Jana Carter, helped many owners win championships.

Two years ago I provided a historical analysis based on 54 years of rookie production tiered by rushing attempts. The result was the same as with any NFL RB: A rookie that earns 300 or more carries in a season is going to put up fantasy quality numbers equivalent to a #1 RB in an owner’s starting lineup. Most of the rookies accomplishing this feat were highly touted starters from opening day.

Rookies earning 250-299 carries are generally starters from opening day or prospects who gradually earn more time as the season progresses. Although the fantasy totals aren’t as impressive as the 300+ carry workhorses, the production is still worthy of a starting roster spot to an owner. In some cases, these backs assume the workhorse role at mid-season and carry fantasy owners down the stretch. MJD, Addai, and Bush were more in line with seeing increasing opportunities from mid-season, on. Both Bush and Drew also had receiving yardage within the top 30 all-time rookie performances in this area.

Four of these top performances have come in the past decade. Still, only seven of the runners on this list compiled fantasy totals over 200 points. If two of the seven on the list made it happen just last year, you know that it’s not likely you should count on an RB to be highly involved in both dimensions of offensive production during his rookie season.

Of course you can’t really factor this 200-point barrier into some of the players on this list because they performed in an era prior to 1978. But 20 of the 30 backs on this list performed in the 16-game era and 13 of them did not earn at least 200 fantasy points.

Jones-Drew and Bush are very similar backs in terms of their talents. Both are excellent return specialists because they are uncommonly gifted open-field runners with more than enough skill to be good between the tackles, tailbacks. I would say they fall into the Gale Sayers School of backs. Herschel Walker, although not even close to Sayers in terms of his style as a runner, also fits due to his multi-dimensional talents as runner, receiver, and return specialist.

Marshall Faulk could have been a star pupil in this aforementioned school of backs, but he wasn’t given return duties. Faulk, James, and Sims carried the load from Day One.

Talent and opportunity are the keys for a rookie runner to have an immediate impact. The 2007 class lacks the deep pool of talent of 2006, but there are two excellent runners who would have been blue-chippers in any class. The first is Adrian Peterson. From the standpoint of natural talent, there aren’t many backs that come along with his power, speed, and balance. Peterson has moments where he looks like he’s a man among boys. However, the Vikings rookie is raw in key skill sets and he might be up and down as a fantasy performer as a rookie. The more polished rookie is the Bills Marshawn Lynch out of California. Lynch may not produce as many eye-popping highlight plays as Peterson, but he is a more multi-dimensional threat along the lines of an Edgerrin James.

Here are the best backs according to each skill set for the 2007:

Front And Center

Marshawn Lynch, Bills: While I believe Adrian Peterson is the most physically talented back in this draft, Lynch is no slouch. The former California Bear is at this point the best bet to produce as a featured back in 2007. I remember first seeing Lynch in 2005. At that time I thought he was an impressive, breakaway threat out of the backfield. But it was his ability to produce despite playing with injures in 2006 that really caught my attention.

Running backs take so much punishment during their careers. It requires a certain level of toughness to perform with an injury because of the number of touches they receive combined with their position’s much higher rate of collisions in comparison to other skill position players. Lynch performed much of last year with both ankles sprained and a sore back. He was unable to demonstrate the acceleration he had when fully healthy, but he consistently showed the ability to wait for blocks to develop and gain yards after contact—two excellent traits necessary for an NFL back.

The Bills offense showed some signs of life last year in the passing game. Lee Evans is one of the best young receivers in the NFL and J.P. Losman had some solid, if not excellent, outings at various points of the season. The problem is Losman’s tendency to throw interceptions. Part of the reason for Losman’s mistakes is a reckless approach, but he often winds up in more difficult situations because the running game was unable to bail out Losman on first and second down. The Bills tandem of McGahee and Thomas scored 32.8% fewer fantasy points than other team RBs in 2006 and were ranked 26th in total rushing yards.

If Lynch stays healthy, he could take over the starting job and provide a spark to the Buffalo offense. He’s also a decent pass blocker, so he should be able to work is way into a multi-faceted role that keeps the rookie on the field. At worst, I believe Lynch will get eased into the offense as the Colts did with Joseph Addai. But I believe the higher tendency for Peyton Manning to call plays at the line of scrimmage makes the Colts offense more difficult to master than the Bills. Count on Lynch to be the favorite to start for Buffalo from the first game and serve as a solid #2 RB for your fantasy league during much of the year.

Anticipation…It’s Making Me Wait

Adrian Peterson, Vikings: Let me cut to the chase about Peterson. The reasons he might not start right away have to do with his ability to protect the football, protect the passer, and run with discipline in situations where freelancing will kill his team’s chances from making first downs. Watch the film and you will see a runner who does not keep the ball close to his body in the open field. You will also see a player who was a liability in pass protection on the perimeter of the defense. And you will see a runner who made some of the most exciting minimal gains, and 5-yard losses you’ve seen since Walter Payton. Except Oklahoma had a decent offensive line.

But you will also see a runner with amazing balance that is extremely difficult to knock off his feet; a runner with the rare agility to successfully put spin moves on linebackers and safeties for a man of his size and strength; and a runner, when determined, has the sheer will to make yardage when nothing seems available for him to gain any. Adrian Peterson is gifted. When it comes to purely running the football and not getting tackled, I’m not sure there is a back in football I’d rather have.

Peterson needs to harness his tremendous gifts into becoming a complete football player. When he does, he has the offensive line and complementing defense to help the Minnesota Vikings become a playoff team. I just don’t believe Peterson will put it all together in time to make it happen this year. Chester Taylor may not have the natural gifts of Peterson, but he is a smart runner and veteran football player who was the Vikings offense.

Look for Peterson to excite fantasy owners throughout the season with some highlight plays and big games, but provide almost equal doses of frustration as he adjusts to the pace, intensity, and rigors of the pro game. The Vikings will feel compelled to get their big-time talent into the backfield, but don’t expect more than a situational role for Peterson in 2007. Averaging anything more than 10 carries a contest will be a bonus for the Vikings rookie—it’s good enough to consider him as 5th or 6th round pick with upside in a rookie draft in case he works his way into a full-time role by season’s end.

Brandon Jackson, Packers: There was a time where it was out of the question to second-guess Green Bays draft day selections. Even prior to Aaron Rodgers that day has passed. It sure sounds like I am down on Brandon Jackson. I’d rather say I’m just not as high on him as others. Is there a difference? Allow me to explain.

Jackson catches the ball well and has tree trunks for thighs. He looks like a powerful back with good quickness. I just don’t believe he’s as good as Vernand Morency, which for the price of a 2nd round pick, I’m second-guessing the Packers. Morency has speed to burn and I think he has more potential than Tatum Bell, but toiled on a slower learning curve due to the fact he started with the Texans. Jackson is not a speedster, and I believe the Nebraska alum and Morency will split time, at best.

The reason is Jackson looks the part more than he plays the part. What I saw on film was a back who went down easily in comparison to other backs in similar situations. Jackson is like a few backs from big-time programs where the offensive linemen are massive (hint: Ohio State and Penn State) and many of their “impressive” runs are products of huge gashes in the defensive line. I think he’s actually the best of the big-time university backs that I’ll profile later, but it doesn’t mean he’s the automatic starter for the Packers. He’s worth selecting late in a re-draft, but I wouldn’t overspend. In fact, I’d rather avoid what I see as imminent frustration with the Green Bay backfield and pick a player like Brian Leonard as a quality handcuff at a cheaper price.

Kenny Irons, Bengals: Rudi Johnson has been a model of consistency with three consecutive 12-touchdown, 1300-yard seasons. Can you guess how many backs have had three consecutive seasons of this caliber? Including Johnson and combining receiving yardage and touchdowns? Seven.

And how many backs did it four times? Just Tomlinson. He was the only back from 4650 seasons of games to have four seasons with at least 1300 yards and 12 scores. Not Emmitt. Not Walter. Not Dickerson. Not Holmes. They didn’t even make this preliminary list.

It is possible Johnson could make it a fourth season in a row, or as with many great backs have a one-year downturn and resume his run of good fantasy production. My point is Rudi Johnson may be in select company, but the chances this six-year veteran from Auburn University matches a feat only Ladainian Tomlinson has met is slim and this brings us to Kenny Irons. Odds are in the rookie’s favor that he will see the field early than the Bengals hope because Johnson has taken a tremendous amount of punishment at this stage of his career and his likelihood of injury increases with every year.

A fellow Auburn Tiger, Irons is a slashing back who hits the hole hard and finishes strong. He has good vision and patience, but I wasn’t impressed with his skills as a short-yardage back. He also lacked some skills that separate the serviceable NFL backs with top-notch starters: making defenders miss in the backfield and maximizing space for positive yardage. What this means to me is if Irons starts any games in 2007 he will look very exciting to fantasy owners against a soft run defense, but will likely disappoint against the Ravens and Steelers of the division.

Talent-wise, Irons may not be as good as Chris Perry. But the Bengals multi-skilled backup from Michigan has spent more time on the disabled list than the football field and this prompted to Cincinnati to address their depth chart at the position. Irons is a tough player who has a tendency to come up big against tough competition. I think he’s a lesser talent than a back he resembles physically and a bit sylistically—Cadillac Williams. Fortunately for Irons, he has found himself among one of the better offenses in the NFL. If you draft Rudi Johnson, Irons is a good late-round handcuff for 2007. He could be serviceable for a year or two as a starter, but I wouldn’t lock him into your dynasty roster.

Spot Time With A Future

Brian Leonard, Rams: Leonard is one of the best football players to come out of college in the last 2-3 seasons. Whether this will make him a fantasy-worthy option for your squad is another subject altogether. Steven Jackson is coming off a great season and most fantasy owners see the Rams’ starter as a bona fide top-three pick in summer drafts. If you have Jackson, I implore you to get Leonard—especially in a dynasty league.

Keep in mind that Jackson just came off a season with a huge workload and he is a punishing power back who plays on artificial turf. If you have read Tony San Nicolas’ RB Workloads articles, then you know Jackson qualifies as a higher risk player in 2007. Brian Leonard is most likely to be that player who takes over for Jackson if the Oregon State alum finds his way onto IR.

Leonard was actually a dark horse candidate for the Heisman until fellow Rutgers back Ray Rice began his Emmitt Smith imitation and the unselfish Leonard moved from halfback to fullback during his senior season to help the Scarlet Knights finish with one of their best seasons in recent memory. Leonard has quick feet, excellent power, and demonstrates third and fourth effort with the ball in his hands. He also has excellent agility and receiving skills. What I find most impressive about Leonard is that he does everything well. If you have him run routes from the backfield he reminds you of Larry Centers. When he’s asked to block as a fullback he’s unsung and consistently good in the way you think of Seahawk, Mack Strong. And when you hand Leonard the football, he runs a bit like John Riggins.

Rams coach Scott Linehan must be happy about his selection of Leonard. The rookie reportedly performed extremely well in mini-camp—scarcely missing an assignment—and the coaching staff anticipates he’ll see the field 15-20 plays a game and touch the ball maybe half the time to keep Jackson fresh. I don’t know about you, but 7-10 touches over a 16-game period equates to potential bye-week material for your starting lineup if really in a pinch. Because of the fact Leonard is the odds-on favorite to back up Jackson, I’d suggest making the rookie a late pick rather than rely upon snagging him off the waiver wire. If Jackson remains healthy, you may see a Lamont Jordan-esque free agency scenario for Leonard down the line. Re-draft or dynasty, I believe he’s a solid investment.

Lorenzo Booker, Dolphins: Is Cam Cameron a genius or just another coach who believes he has to reinvent everything in his image? We’re going to find out in the next three seasons and part of that reinvention will be the addition of John Beck, Ted Ginn, Jr., and FSU-alum, Lorenzo Booker. This runner came to Tallahassee has the top-rated prep runner in the nation. Then he promptly sat behind Greg Jones and split time with Leon Washington.

Is he Warrick Dunn material at 5-11 and 187 lbs.? Well, he is elusive, a good receiver, and courageous in traffic. He’s tougher to bring down than one might anticipate. This is why Booker impressed several observers on the college all-star circuit during Senior Bowl practices. He reportedly was one of the stars of the event. He faced quality competition as a player and performed admirably well, but the question will remain until proven otherwise: can he withstand the pounding of the NFL.

Personally, I can buy into the idea that Booker toiled on some disappointing FSU squad where the offense underachieved, because that’s what the Seminoles have done recently. I can also parallel Booker’s potential entry to the NFL with Dunn’s. Both players were behind established backs on the depth chart. Unless Ronnie Brown gets hurt or Cameron’s ego runs amok, Booker will be a situational back to begin his career.

But I don’t buy into the Warrick Dunn talk. I see a back who could potential be more Clinton Portis-like. Portis is 5-11 and entered the NFL at 190 lbs. I believe if given the opportunity Booker could evolve into a starter. I’m not so impressed with Booker that I would brand him the next Portis, but he hasn’t had enough carries to prove my wrong, either.

Depth With Upside

Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants: I have talked enough about this guy in a previous column.

Garrett Wolfe, Bears: If there is a Warrick Dunn-type back in this draft class, Wolfe fits the part the best. I sincerely believe if the Northern Illinois star were 5-10 and 205 pounds, he’d be a first round pick and maybe the best back in this class. Wolfe possesses excellent balance, vision, and practices great ball protection. He’s like a smaller, Tiki Barber.

Did you see what Wolfe did to Ohio State on opening day? What about Michigan? While I didn’t get to break down these games—and if someone has a DVD of either of these contests they’d like to send me (for educational purposes, of course) of Garrett Wolfe running wild, I’ll give you a free copy of my 2007 RSP (or 2006 publication if you have one, but not the other).

Despite missing these contests, I did see enough of Wolfe to believe he at least has a shot as a 3rd down contributor in the mold of a Kevin Faulk or Amp Lee. But I do think he has potential to be even more productive between the tackles than these two. Interestingly enough the Bears also seem optimistic about Wolfe’s chances to supplant Adrian Peterson (of Georgia Southern fame) as Benson’s backup. I’d keep an eye on Wolfe to see if he performs anywhere near expectation—not the stats, Wolfe—watch the games to see how he performs between the tackles, finishing runs, and understanding his assignments. He may be worth a late pick.

Sleepers

Kenneth Darby, Buccaneers: When he was a junior, I thought Ken Darby was a surefire, first day pick. But the Buccaneers 7th round selection dropped due to an unimpressive senior year and poor showing at the Senior Bowl. Now Darby is no guarantee to even make the Tampa roster as he competes with Earnest Graham and Michael Pittman for a spot on the depth chart.

But I think Darby is a much better back than what we saw from him as a senior at Alabama. I believe that’s definitely what John Gruden thinks as well. Darby’s father passed away last year and the rookie’s head and heart were temporarily missing from the game. If you have ever had someone close to you die, you know how hard it can be to function for a while. Now imagine feeling depressed and trying to perform at the highest level in a sport that requires a great deal of emotional energy. If you see where I’m heading, then you’d just forget about Darby’s senior campaign and focus more on his junior year. If you can’t imagine, it write Darby off and go to the next player, although I think you’re making a big mistake.

As a sophomore and junior I watched Darby run aggressively and with emotion. He has very good performances against top-notch, SEC defenses like Tennessee and Florida. What impressed me the most about Darby was his ability to make sharp cuts in traffic and finish runs. He’s a downhill runner and slasher with enough of a burst to get into the secondary. He reminded me of two backs—Curtis Martin and former Seahawk star from the 70s and 80s, Curt Warner.

The early reports about Darby from Tampa are they got themselves a better than advertised player who they think could evolve into an every-down back. That’s at least what Running Backs Coach Art Valero has told the media. Even so, they believe Darby has a good shot to make the roster as a third down back because of his ability to catch the football. I honestly would be surprised if Darby doesn’t easily beat out Earnest Graham. Two years ago, I thought Mike Bell was a starting quality back and he didn’t get drafted. Last year, I thought Wali Lundy was a better back than his 4th round status and he did more than expected. Add Darby to this list for 2007.

Selvin Young, Broncos: Selvin Young has two ifs attached to his reputation as a football player. If #1: Injury concerns—he tore his ACL in 2005. If #2: He has shown repeated difficult protecting the football. These were enough for Young to go undrafted, but the Denver Broncos thought enough of Young to sign him as a free agent and let go of journeyman Cedric Cobbs—a player who actually looked good enough at times last preseason to warrant a serious look at starting in 2006.

I liked Young’s quickness, elusiveness, and receiving skills. I watched the Texas Longhorn runner make some impressive catches in coverage—even on a deep, wheel route 20-30 yards downfield. Young split time with Jamaal Charles, a player I believe is one of the better runners in college football, at Texas and still acquitted himself well.

Young will be competing with Cecil Sapp and Andre Hall for a post on the Broncos active roster and as the third string back to Travis Henry and Mike Bell. Sapp is a lock because of his proven performance in spot duty and skills as a fullback. That leaves Hall and Young and I believe one—if not both—will see time on the practice squad in 2007. But I believe Young has enough talent to start in the NFL one day and he’s not a guy to sleep on.

Late Round Gambles and Long Shots-Dynasty Only

Antonio Pittman, Saints: Yes, I know that Pittman is a higher pick than many of these players I already listed. I just don’t believe Pittman is anything more than an average back that will disappoint owners who believe he’ll be the replacement for Deuce McAllister in a year or two. I believe Reggie Bush will eventually be the main back—likely by fall of 2008. And, Pittman did not show the ability to break tackles and finish runs with the skill expected from an NFL back. Speed is a nice trait, but it doesn’t compensate for excellent vision and finishing power. LeShon Johnson, Brent Fullwood, and Leeland McElroy had excellent speed, but they lacked the extra skills necessary to be successful NFL backs. I see Pittman as a player who may give you a few good games in the next 2-3 years if he gets to see the field, but think of him as a Derrick Blaylock type of player. He’s over valued in dynasty drafts in my opinion.

Tony Hunt, Eagles: I believe Hunt falls down too easily when he gets hit, but other analysts talk about him as a great power back. All I see is a big kid who gained a lot of yardage in front of a Penn State line that opened large holes. But once Hunt got into closed space, he was much easier to tackle. Brian Westbrook is the man in Philly. Correll Buckhalter has experienced multiple injuries in his career and although he gives workmanlike performances, he’s a big step down from Westbrook. Ryan Moats is a terrific talent with the ball in his hands, but he has somehow alienated himself from this team due to reputedly having difficulty learning the offense.

What Hunt has is size and this gives him the chance to be the Eagles Brandon Jacobs to Westbrook’s Tiki Barber. I just don’t buy the idea of Hunt being the right guy for the job. At the price he’s going in dynasty leagues, I’d rather have several other backs, a quarterback, or a receiver.