The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 146
A Pre-Playoff Examination (and Autopsy Report for 2009)
12/4/08

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

From the Top

League: Fantasy Auctioneer Invitational Expert League
Record: 9-4 (division winner)
Draft Strategy: Pay high early for studs I wanted and hope I land huge bargains late. I used this strategy for three seasons and won this league in 2005 and 2006, and failed to make the playoffs in 2007.

The Bad: I ignored the tight end position and opted for Vernon Davis as an upside pick (and only TE). Then I waited too long to pick a suitable replacement. Greg Olsen was pretty good for a while, but if the waiver period is over in this league I’ll have to hope his month-long slump ends in time for the games that count the most. I had John Carney for a week, but dropped him after the Cleveland game, thinking Lawrence Tynes would be back. As I mention a lot, I’m not a huge proponent of spending inordinate amounts of time on tight ends, kickers, and defenses and for the way this team has performed, I don’t have much to complain about as a result.

The Ugly: Brett Favre. He’s been all over the place and for a league that docks points for turnovers, his stat line can look ugly when I’m checking the score in the first quarter. Hanging onto Mike Walker after the Pittsburgh game has been ugly. I missed out on more than a few strong receivers I could have available if Owens, Fitzgerald, or Jackson get hurt or benched.

Playoff Studs: Peterson, Fitzgerald, and Owens should continue to play in the coming weeks because their respective teams haven’t sewn anything up. This is potentially great news, especially for Peterson, who faces the Lions, Cardinals, and Falcons. Fitzgerald is nearly as enticing with the Rams, Vikings, and Patriots on the docket. Although Arizona is virtually a lock to win the division, they are still competing to host a home field game and the next two weeks will still be must-wins, because the 49ers are still mathematically capable of taking the NFC West away from them. The Cowboys will need everything they can get out of T.O., because they not only still have a chance to win the division, but they also are just as capable of missing the playoffs altogether if the Cowboys falter and the ‘Skins and Eagles go on a roll.

Playoff Duds: I’m worried about Brett Favre. He has a great schedule, but his week 15 match up versus the elements in Buffalo could be dicey. The alternative is Joe Flacco facing the Steelers – I’ll have to take my chances with Favre.

Playoff Sleepers: Derrick Ward. If the Giants clinch the NFC East and home field advantage before week 15, it’s certain Tom Coughlin will give Brandon Jacobs a rest and it will be the Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw shoe. My only fear is with the depth New York has, Coughlin could easily bench Ward after a quarter or two and use Bradshaw and Rueben Droughns. Yes, I just invoked Rueben Droughns, he’s just that kind of player that could make or break a championship game.

League: SOFA Auction Fantasy Football League
Record: 9-3-1 (division winner and first-round bye)
Draft Strategy I won this auction league in my first season (2006) and bombed the following year. As mentioned above, I’m often a proponent of paying high for a few studs early, and unearthing huge bargains late, but this league has most of the same owners I competed with a few days earlier in the Fantasy Auctioneer Invitational Expert League I just discussed. It made more sense to alter my draft strategy and spread my money around on players I felt were considered just below elite status, but with a chance to reach that level of play in 2008. Another important difference with this league is the flex option of a third back or fourth receiver/second tight end.

The Good: My running backs. Although this was an auction league, I felt like a lucky owner drafting at the turn of a round with Portis and Lynch as my first two acquisitions. DeAngelo Williams was one of my Preseason All-Gut Check Team nominees and he panned out handsomely as my flex back – so much so, I haven’t even used Derrick Ward (notice the fact I drafted him in both of these leagues at the $1 bargain bin) although it’s a possibility I might if I go far in the playoffs. What’s great about the spread-out-the-talent strategy is when you hit on the right players you have few holes you have to fill through the waiver wire. In this case, I only had to focus on my three favorite waiver wire positions: kicker, tight end, and defense.

The Bad: Vernon Davis Syndrome (see the first analysis from the FAEIL team).

The Ugly: Tying a team in a league that scores its performance to the hundredth of a point. Seriously, how often have you had the same score down to the yard?

Playoff Studs: It will be the passing game that will need to take it up a notch if this team is going to go deep in the post season. Brees should continue to throw at will versus Atlanta, Chicago, and Detroit. The tough part will be figuring out will be getting the love. My money is still on Moore, but with Colston benefiting from Moore’s play. He’s had two decent games in a row and I think he’ll stay hot – especially with Reggie Bush back and that knock-off-the-rust game under his belt. Greg Jennings faces Houston, Jacksonville, and Chicago, which is good news because all of these teams are vulnerable to the big play and Jennings is versatile enough to score via the bomb or the quick slant. Antonio Bryant is clearly the first option for Jeff Garcia and he gets the gifts of the Panthers, Falcons, and Chargers. These are all huge games for the Bucs, who will be duking it out for a playoff spot and possibly the division title and these type of games are often high-scoring affairs. Bryant should come up big. The Jets’ match ups aren’t as good, but Jerricho Cotchery is in a great situation and he appears to be rounding back to form after playing through a nagging injury since mid-October.

Playoff Duds: it will be the ground game that will face the stiffest challenges. Clinton Portis gets tested with date against Baltimore. Portis, Santana Moss, Ray Lewis, and Ed Reed, the UM alumni in this game, will be geeked up to face each other as interdivision, cross-town rivals. I think Portis is talented enough for a big week, but as long as he’s healthy enough to go I’m expecting a better effort than last week’s Giants effort. Fortunately, I have a bye, so I get to use Portis against Cincinnati’s defense. Marshawn Lynch will face the improved Dolphins defense and the Jets looking to rebound from the embarrassing effort versus Denver. The potential reward is a date with Denver in week 16 – the problem is the Bills could be far behind in that game. Then there’s DeAngelo Williams whose fantasy playoff schedule has the Bucs and Giants as bookends – not encouraging, because he’s been a relative dud against stronger defensive units this year. Again, I get to skip the Bucs affair, but the Giants will be a test. The Packers were considered one of those units, but after the past two weeks, something has changed for the worse.

Playoff Sleepers: The players who might save me if I choose to take the chance on playing match ups rather than establish studs will be Derrick Ward, Ricky Williams, and Jerious Norwood. We talked about Ward earlier; Williams has the benefit of facing Buffalo, San Francisco, and Kansas City in that order. With the Dolphins in contention, they’ll be pulling out all the stops and Williams will be a huge factor against young, athletic defenses that are prone to abandoning their assignments. Although Norwood faces Tampa, he does get another crack at the Saints this weekend and a Vikings front four that will be toothless without the Williams DTs. Expect the Falcons to attempt to build on the success they had with Norwood burning New Orleans a few weeks ago. He’s naturally a mismatch for the Saints defense, so I expect more of the same when the Falcons travel to the Big Easy.

A Fighting Chance

League: Ironman Dynasty League
Record: 7-6
Draft Strategy This team is better than its record; I made poor lineup decisions that cost me five victories. My rookie drafts have been fruitful and netted me decent players. Due to the fact this is a 40-man roster with individual defensive players, I’ll spare you the complete roster breakdown. This year my rookie draft netted me Dustin Keller and a bunch of players I expect to come to the forefront within 2-3 years. I traded away picks and Cadillac Williams for Kevin Smith so he can back up my tandem of Brandon Jacobs and Brian Westbrook.

The Good: Larry Fitzgerald, Dwayne Bowe, and Bernard Berrian are a solid trio of receivers and Matt Jones has been a surprisingly effective spot-time player. Bo Scaife and Dustin Keller are both in the top 10 at their position despite not being projected to start entering training camp. On defense I have two, top-ten linebackers Patrick Wiliis and Karlos Dansby and a total of four in the corps producing in the top 25.

The Bad: Trent Edwards is still developing and the last month not withstanding, David Garrard’s production took a step backward this year. My cornerbacks have been pedestrian at best.

The Ugly: Picking the right runners and passers for my starting lineup has been the killer for me this year. Kyle Vanden Bosch could have been the difference in at least three of the five games I lost if he were healthy. I continually dropped cornerbacks who had good weeks after letting them go for what turned out to be a lesser performer.

Playoff Studs: Larry Fitzgerald (see earlier segment).

Playoff Duds: Although I expect Westbrook to be a strong start versus Cleveland, I’m not counting on him to be great against the Giants or Redskins in weeks 14 and 16. Like DeAngelo Williams, Westbrook has been a fair-weathered, fantasy stud in 2008. I already mentioned that Brandon Jacobs worries me because of the increasing possibility he’ll be used more sparingly on championship weekend if the Giants clinch the division and home field advantage.

Playoff Sleeper: Bernard Berrian has a nice trio of match ups, including the Lions, Cardinals, and Falcons. The Vikings tend to play up or down to their competition so I think Berrian will be needed in every game, especially the last two.

League: Local League
Record: 7-6
Draft Strategy This is typical re-draft league where we start four receivers and two backs with a deep roster. I went heavy on backs and receivers, late on two value-pick QBs, and did my standard one bourbon (TE), one shot (K), and one beer (DEF) near the end.

The Good: The league management site says my receivers are the second best in the league and my RB combo of Peterson and Turner has kept me in the top-four in team scoring. I traded Chris Perry early in the year for Chris Cooley to make up for my third case of Vernon Davis Syndrome.

The Bad: Beyond Calvin Johnson, my receiving corps has been wildly inconsistent and I have done a bad job of picking the right combination beyond starting Calvin Johnson every week.

The Ugly: Quarterback by Committee – the term gives me heartburn just thinking saying it. This is by far the worst performing set of quarterbacks I have ever selected in a re-draft league. I didn’t plan to use a QBBC, but I was always a pick late on the three I wanted most: Brees, Roethlisberger, and McNabb. Both quarterbacks are just missing out on some deep scoring opportunities – especially Delhomme. If he can pick up the pace, I have a fighting chance.

Playoff Studs: Calvin Johnson. With Minnesota, Indianapolis, and New Orleans ahead of him, he should at least give any playoff squad a fighting chance.

Playoff Duds: Michael Turner faces Tampa Bay in what will be the semifinals for most leagues. That doesn’t bode well for this team. Turner may be the top guy in this league and I’m hopeful that Matt Ryan will have learned enough to take the pressure off the Falcons’ bell cow back in this game, but I’m not counting on it. Making the right decision on Turner will paramount to your success. If you can advance to the finals, a chance to face the depleted front four of the Vikings will be a nice reward.

Playoff Sleepers: If Carson Palmer were available, Houshmandzadeh would be the difference for my squad. Without Palmer, the match ups of Washington, Indy, and Cleveland aren’t as appetizing. He’s difficult to bench, especially for the last two weeks. Isaac Bruce’s week 16 match up against his former team in St. Louis should give him extra motivation. Bruce is also legendary for his huge games at the end of the year. He’s averaged over 17.5 points in the last two week 16 match ups. I think this will be one of those years. Is there a scientific basis for this? No. Do you care? I

Still Alive, but an Uphill Battle All the Way

League: GOIDPANKAL
Record: 6-7
Draft Strategy This is a league with several writers from two sites participating. It has a full IDP component and what I like the most is there are no kickers. I drafted as many backs and linebackers I thought presented value. I took chances at DB, DT, and DE because I felt I would have a chance to find value on the waiver wire. The draft was late enough in the preseason to make Brett Favre a worthwhile mid-to-late round investment.

The Good: Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, and DeAngelo Williams as my RB rotation. Cortland Finnegan as my late round CB and I was able to wait forever to get him and a secondary featuring Troy Polamalu and Brian Dawkins.

The Bad: I can only start two RBs out of the three I have. Marques Colston’s injury put a severe dent in my WR corps and Brett Favre was too up and down in a league that scored for turnovers.

The Ugly: Waiting forever for Joey Galloway to return and never produce.

Playoff Studs: I think Colston is going to repeat the late-season tear of 2007 with his match up against the Falcons, Lions, and Bears. Brian Urlacher seems to be playing more like his old self lately and I’m expecting him and London Fletcher to make a late push.

Playoff Duds: None.

Playoff Sleepers: Hines Ward. He’s a great weapon over the middle and the Cowboys, Ravens, and Titans are most vulnerable in the passing game in the middle of their defense.

Mystery Meat?

Last week, the mystery player was none other than Drew Brees – probably the most accurate deep ball thrower in football today. Let’s do another. Here's what three scouts had to say about a 207-lb., prospect that ran a 4.38-40 and succeeded a Heisman Trophy Winner with a dazzling 1681-yard season as a junior. Two of these scouts had a good read on him. One had a taste of Dr. Shoals for dinner:

Scout One: "Speed kills. With his quickness out of a break he's going to have linebackers stumbling and falling all over themselves. He will undress them."

Scout Two: "I'm mixed on him. Some people say he's not instinctive and not a shake guy. (Expletive), he only has to make some kind of move and if you lean the wrong way he's gone. Great, great speed and he plays fast. Maybe when he matures he'll be your every down guy. Not now."

Scout Three: "He's a spot player that might give you a big play. He should have stayed in school and worked on catching the ball."

Personally, I think Scout Two’s comments sound a bit like Darren McFadden. See if you can guess this guy as well as you did with Brees.