The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 141
Second Reads and Route Adjustments
10/30/08

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

The stats that reveal this information include target conversion percentage (C%), targets per game (T/GM), and touchdown conversion percentage (Td C%). These three pieces of information will be combined with the typical receiving stats of value to reveal which moves you should make at this fantasy position down the stretch.

It’s clear that the players with the most targets per game don’t necessarily have the best fantasy points per game average. Of the top twelve T/GM receivers, five of them average less than 10 points per game. Three of these five receivers – Dwayne Bowe, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Matt Jones – are arguably the primary threat in offenses with line struggles to run the ball and protect the passer. The Chiefs and Bengals both have quarterback issues.

If you argue T.J. Houshmandzadeh isn’t the primary guy in Cincinnati, then he also has something in common with the other two receivers in the T/GM top twelve who are averaging less than 10 points per game. Houshmandzadeh, Eddie Royal, and Wes Welker all serve as productive secondary options for their teams and all three are underneath options for their quarterbacks – averaging 10 yards or fewer per catch.

Of the twelve most targeted receivers, only three – Bowe, Wayne, and Jones – have a conversion percentage below 60%. This is a common sense stat: if you have reliable hands, your quarterback will target you often.

Surprisingly, the lowest three converters on this list of 36 receivers are the venerable, Terrell Owens (47%), Marvin Harrison (46%), and Braylon Edwards (40%). T.O. has the rep for inconsistent hands, but Harrison and Edwards? Credit inconsistent play for each offense to begin the season. Stick with Owens, who might be a buy-low candidate relative to his preseason perception.

If the patchwork solution between Kellen Winslow and the Browns holds up, Braylon Edwards could benefit. The attempts are there, but the receptions aren’t. Marvin Harrison may have a strong game or two for the rest of the year, but I wouldn’t count on him returning to fantasy form unless the Colts find a situational role for him where he can exploit his remaining skills in a new way. I would think putting Harrison in the slot could be helpful, but I’m not sure they have the personnel to replace Harrison’s role on the outside to divert the focus of a starting corner.

In contrast, let’s check out the top 36 receivers that make the most of their opportunities. What you’re going to find here are a lot of solid #3 -#4 receivers or bye week options. Only Anquan Boldin and Andre Johnson are double-digit fantasy point producers and in the top twelve in terms of converting targets, which should further underscore how good both are playing right now.

You may not get much out of Ike Hilliard, Antwaan Randle El, Chansi Stuckey, or Hank Baskett, but if your desperate for a receiver these guys will at least give you something most weeks.

Wes Welker is no longer “sneaky good,” but Lance Moore, Steve Breaston, and Eddie Royal have the quarterback and surrounding options to give you solid production without the marquee name. Plus, Royal and Welker get enough targets each game to be productive options. Houshmandzadeh and Breaston’s stats indicate the same, but quarterback issues and the return to slot receiver status (respectively) lead me to believe they’ve already peaked.

It’s obvious from this table that production and the highest target conversion don’t always go hand in hand. Santana Moss, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, and Larry Fitzgerald are all in the middle to closer to the bottom of the pack I this category. When you get your nose out of the stat column and watch a ballgame you know these players are often targeted in situations with a high degree of difficulty. Therefore, the conversion may not be among the highest on the list, but they continue to get fed the ball enough to produce among the best in the game.

There is a player with intriguing numbers that we should discuss. Robert Meachem is averaging fewer than two targets per game, but he’s converting enough to earn over five points per game. When you see he’s averaging over 30 yards per catch, you realize he’s a player to watch for the future but not likely this season. A lot of owners are up and own on Meachem because his production is high for a player with such limited looks. Personally, I like what Meachem has done by working with David Patteon to learn what’s needd to become a true professional. He’s a long-term “buy” candidate in dynasty leagues as long as he continues to exhibit this type of behavior.

Meachem also headlines the list of players who make the most of their catches – by reaching the end zone on 17% of his attempts. Miles Austin is another player with promise for the future. But let’s look at the players who will help you now. The only guy that really makes the most out of less than favorable circumstances (limited looks, poor QB situation, or lack of surrounding talent) is Calvin Johnson. If Daunte Culpepper signs with Detroit and has anything left, look out. The fact Johnson is on pace for 1100 yards and 10 scores with the Lions as they are is impressive enough – and by the way, he’s out-producing Randy Moss in worse circumstances than Moss has…

Anquan Boldin jumps off this table with an impressive 15% of his targets resulting in touchdowns. Because of the presence of Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston, Boldin draws single coverage in situations where most receivers of his skill set are bracketed by the secondary. He has the trifecta of stats we’re looking for here: high targets, high conversion of targets, and high conversion of targets in to scores. Add that up and you have a receiver scoring 17.6 points per game. As a fan of Donovan McNabb, it’s a shame Boldin didn’t get his preseason wish, but the receiver is playing true to his word and helping the Cardinals contend.

Chris Chambers’ targets and target conversion is mediocre for a starter, but when he gets his hands on a ball, he’s scoring nearly once every three catches. But if you want a lesser known guy that is just as productive, but more efficient, target Kevin Walter as a viable starter in three-receiver lineups. If you are trying to negotiate a deal where you can’t offer a lot in return Walter might be a player you can sneak off with.

So the next logical thing to do is put it all together and see which players have the best combined numbers that reflect high opportunity, high efficiency, and high production rolled into one. I decided the criteria would be at least:

• 60% conversion of targets
  
• 7 fantasy points per game
  
• 6 targets per game.

The results aren’t the best fantasy producers, but it gives a cross section of players you can rely upon to get consistent opportunities and make something of them week in and week out. Some of these players are superstars, others are solid #2 fantasy starters, and still others are lesser-regarded bye week options.

The first seven receivers on this list are about as good as you can get in fantasy football. You can count on at least two targets per quarter in every game and no less than 12 fantasy points per game. And there’s no one way these receivers achieve this production. Boldin has been a redzone monster that is used in the middle of the defense where he can make the tough grab or run through a secondary. In contrast, Greg Jennings is performing like the prototypical big play threat. Much like Derrick Mason in his prime, Jennings skill at getting behind a defensive back has far less to do with raw speed.

Then you have Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, and Andre Johnson who must have some dirt on their quarterbacks because they are getting targeted at least 10 times a week. The truth about this trio is they have the size and toughness to go over the middle and the speed to take a short pass a long way. None of their teams have a strong defense and the quarterbacks are young and have these receivers as favorites to rely upon – maybe even a little too much for the good of the team, but with no complaints from their fantasy owners.

There are also a fair share of tandems on this list: Boldin and Fitzgerald, Coles and Cotchery, Marshall and Royal, Welker and Moss, and Johnson and Walter. By the end of the year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad join the list by season’s end. Interestingly enough, Marshall and Johnson only appear to hog all the looks when in fact they don’t at all – it just underscores how much their teams throw the football.

Looking for a trio of players that are as safe a bet as you can get not to get shut out? T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Eddie Royal, and Wes Welker may not give you many big days, but 8-9 points per game, and catching nearly 70% of the 9-10 targets they get per game, these are valuable depth in non-ppr leagues and viable starters in ppr leagues.

Lee Evans and Randy Moss are safe bets as big play artists. They are getting over seven looks per game and converting those looks over 60% of the time with double-digit fantasy points scored per game. It appears they’ve gotten in sync with their quarterbacks.

Rising and Falling

A fast-rising guy is rookie Donnie Avery. Although he’s only getting 5.5 targets per game, if you calculate this number based on games started, he’s getting far more looks now that he’s in the lineup. Marc Bulger is a terrific quarterback, what holds him back is protection up front. Bulger had no problem transitioning from Isaac Bruce to Kevin Curtis a few years back. Now he has no problem getting the ball to Avery more often than Holt.

Kevin Walter is on the rise, because opposing teams have to give some respect to the Texans’ ground game with rookie Steve Slaton. They run the ball just enough and rely so heavily on Andre Johnson, that Walter will continue to earn easier opportunities to cash in.

Steve Breaston and Lance Moore are players I believe will see a slip in production because of the return of Anquan Boldin and Marques Colston, respectively. Both have demonstrated they have the skills to be more than situational receivers, but they will likely return to those roles for as long as these primary guys remain healthy.