12/2/08
As we all know Hindsight is 20/20. This weekly column is devoted
to learning from common mistakes and serves as FFToday’s “Fantasy
Football Confessional.”
It’s the day before Thanksgiving but I know that most
of you will be reading this as I’m recovering from a 12-hour
road trip to meet the future in-laws in Baltimore. My future father
in-law, L.A., is a retired police detective and a Cowboys fan.
Fortunately there’s much more to life than football, but
from a football compatibility perspective of childhood Browns
fan, current Titans fan, and AFC fan, L.A. and I won’t be
cheering from the same sideline too often. Maybe we’ll have
some good smack talk.
Since I’ll be getting grilled for Sunday dinner by “Pops”
and the rest of the family with ties to law enforcement in the
greater Baltimore area, I probably won’t be watching football
after Thursday night. With that in mind, now’s a great time
to look back upon the regular season that now “was”
and name my 2008 All-Fantasy Team. This is your typical 12-team
league with an 18-player roster of 2 QBs/6 RBs/6 WRs/2 TEs/1 K
/1 DEF with a starting line up of 1 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1TE/1K/1DEF and
FFToday scoring.
Quarterback
Starter - Drew Brees: With
nearly 64% of his games at elite quality after 11 games according
to the Crank Score and thoroughly ripping apart a quality Packers
secondary with a receiving corps of lesser that most GMs and coaches
wouldn’t have the stones to put on the field over their
big contract guys, Drew Brees is threatening to obliterate Dan
Marino’s yardage record. My back up may be more consistent
as a No. 1 fantasy starter, but Brees is mobile, takes better
care of the football, and is the most accurate deep passer in
the game. While everyone was drooling over Brady, Manning, and
Romo this summer, Brees was a bargain in comparison. At least
one owner in every league I was in this year cursed when another
drafted Brees somewhere between rounds three and five. I was able
to make sure I wasn’t the only “said owner”
and managed to win a bid for him in the SOFA Auction League where
I’m in good position to make a run for a chance at my second
championship in three years.
Back up – Kurt
Warner: Warner has the fewest Subpar games of any quarterback
and with receivers like Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Steve
Breaston, it’s easy to see why. Warner also has a good chance
to top Marino’s single season yardage total and is playing as
smart as ever. He doesn’t’ manipulate the defense or move in the
pocket like Brees, but with those receivers, he can get rid of
the ball quicker than anyone in the NFL with the confidence that
his corps of pass catchers will win the battle for the football.
Congratulations to those of you who had the smarts to nab Warner
at the end of your drafts – you rightly had no faith in Matt Leinart’s
prowess behind the beer bong and hot tub. I’d argue he didn’t
even do that well. If he didn’t we wouldn’t be looking at photographs
plastered across the Internet.
Running back
No. 1 – Matt Forte: Looking
for a big game? Matt Forte delivers nearly 55% of the time in
the Elite category. That’s tied with the Diesel and the
Barbarian for tops in fantasy football. What’s all the more
impressive is Forte only bombed 9% of the time while Peterson
and Barber had subpar efforts 27% and 36% of the time, respectively.
That means only once has Forte not performed like a quality fantasy
starter in 2008. I would have been the first to tell you that
I thought Forte’s talent would be overshadowed by the dearth
of surrounding talent and he’d make a solid #2 RB because
he was at least used to being the big fish in a small pond. I
had no idea in many respects he’d grade out as the best
fantasy back in the NFL this year. If you picked Forte in the
middle rounds, no one is second guessing your pick now.
No. 2 – Adrian
Peterson: All Day isn’t averaging as many points per game
as three other backs on this depth chart, but he’s stayed healthy,
is tied for the best percentage of Elite performances, and he’s
doing it without a quality passing game. In other words, go ahead
and stack the line, Peterson will deliver 8 out of 10 times with
the bull’s eye on his chest.
No. 3 – Clinton Portis:
I wavered several times with placing Portis below Peterson because
the worst defense in the Redskins division is better than the
Lions. But Portis has better weapons and a semblance of a passing
game to prevent defenses from stacking the line as regularly as
they do against Peterson. Plus I want a back with more upside
even if he’s averaging slightly fewer fantasy points per
game. I really couldn’t argue with you if you went with
Portis over Peterson. He’s a great back and I enjoy watching
him as much as Peterson although for entirely different reasons.
Peterson is a force of nature; Portis is the guy who outsmarts
the forces of nature.
No. 4 – Michael
Turner: No one averages more points per game than Turner and
his huge days have done more to help a fantasy team than any other
player in fantasy football. You know he’s going to get the ball
in goal line situations and he’s nearly a certainty to see 20
touches per contest. The fact he did this with a rookie – albeit
a good one – under center is all the more impressive. He’s also
been remarkably durable despite such a bruising style. Thomas
Jones and Frank Gore may be a bit more consistent, but I think
Turner will wind up looking better on the stats sheet by week
17.
No. 5 – Marion
Barber: Did you watch him carry the ball at the end of the
Redskins-Cowboys game two weeks ago? If you didn’t see it, don’t
even try to argue with me that Thomas Jones, Frank Gore, or Brandon
Jacobs should be above him. It’s not his fault that Jerry Jones
wants Felix Jones in the lineup, Tony Romo hurt his little finger,
and T.O. is a whiny baby. When they call upon Barber, he delivers
like no other back in football. He may have the best balance of
any back in football, which is why he always manages to make big
plays despite the fact he lacks the speed of the backs ahead of
him. If Jerry Jones weren’t such a pimp, I could be a Cowboys
fan just because of Barber.
No. 6 – Frank
Gore: Thomas Jones and Brandon Jacobs each have a quarterback
capable of consistent, elite level play and an excellent defense
to keep them in any game. Frank Gore’s QB corps amounts to a bust
as a #1 overall pick in the draft and two undrafted guys who got
most of their experience in alternate leagues. Thomas Jones and
Brandon Jacobs have two of the best offensive lines in football.
Frank Gore plays behind an offensive line that hasn’t lived up
to its draft day billing. Thomas Jones and Brandon Jacobs play
in the I-formation and get to read blocks as they develop. Frank
Gore frequently gets put close to the line – about as close as
a fullback – and has to opt for quick-hitters. Thomas Jones and
Brandon Jacobs aren’t the best weapons on their team. Frank Gore
is by far the best weapon on the Niners offense. Thomas Jones
and Brandon Jacobs have more Sub par games than Frank Gore in
the consistency scale. Put Frank Gore in New York with either
of these teams and he’d lead the league in rushing and would be
a legitimate MVP candidate.
Wide Receivers
No. 1 – Anquan
Boldin: Boldin has been a beast. Especially for a receiver
most were able to take as their fantasy No. 2 WR. You just have
to hate that guy who was lucky enough to nab him there and hate
yourself for letting him get past you where he did. He hasn’t
performed below No. 3 receiver status all year, unless you count
those two weeks dealing with facial reconstruction. I can’t even
imagine having 18 plates put in my face after taking a hit so
vicious that my QB consider his mortality only to return two weeks
later to dominate the fantasy position at an incredible 17.76
fpts/game and Elite percentage of 77.8%. That figure is so ridiculously
good - Santana Moss is a distance second with 50%. Oh yeah, he’s
letting his play do the talking despite the team not giving him
a new contract and requesting a trade in the preseason. That’s
what happens when you’re a former college QB. You and Hines Ward
are my football heroes at the WR position. Every time you play
like the men you are you make Chad Ocho Cinco and Terrell Owens
look like middle school kids and my apologies to kids that actually
behave well.
No. 2 – Larry
Fitzgerald: Although Fitz loses out to Boldin in the red area
and his Elite percentage is 45%, he’s nearly as consistent as
his teammate everywhere else. Not many teams can support having
two excellent receivers, but this duo and Kurt Warner are like
the perfect storm of aerial talent.
No. 3 – Calvin
Johnson: Let’s see here…run-oriented offense? Check. Lackluster
offensive line? Check. Mike Martz? Gone. Jon Kitna? Gone. Roy
Williams? Gone. We like to joke about Randy Moss’ ridiculous skills,
but when he was with the Raiders it wasn’t even this ridiculous.
Johnson is literally scoring like a No. 1 fantasy receiver on
less than five catches per game and at least one catch per game
is a schoolyard, go long, throw it up for grabs play drawn in
the dirt against double coverage. He’s averaging a ridiculous,
18.9 yards per catch with the retread, get your roll on, Culpepper
and my buddy, Drew-Precht Stanton. He does more with less than
any receiver in football; maybe any player. If you’re reading
this column and were able to draft Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Johnson
in this order, e-mail me so I can congratulate you.
No. 4 – Greg
Jennings: Johnson may be superhuman, but no one looks better
making a reception off a bomb than Jennings. Like Johnson he’s
only had two sub par games and 81% of the time he’s performed
at least like a No. 3 receiver in a fantasy receiving corps. Other
than Boldin, he also might be the best yards after the catch receiver
in football. You know Brett Favre misses Jennings as much as any
player he left in Green Bay.
No. 5 – Roddy
White: The only move I am really going to question in regard
to the Falcons this year – and I’ll probably be proven wrong in
hindsight – is their decision to sign Michael Jenkins to a contract
extension. He’s playing pretty well, but I think they could have
gotten better with Matt Ryan in the fold. Seriously, Jenkins isn’t
the reason Roddy White is one of the best receivers in the game.
White is acrobatic, a deep threat, and capable of taking a short
pass a long way. He’s versatile and expects to be great. He has
as many elite games than Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall and
didn’t miss time for punching (or allegedly punching) anyone.
No. 6 – Lance
Moore: Yeah, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Santana Moss,
and Lee Evans are all probably deserving but Moore gets the nod.
This Toledo product who was originally signed by the Cleveland
Browns in 2005 and waived five months later before signed to the
Saints practice squad a month later, has been nothing short of
amazing for a Saints team that was desperate for a consistent
presence at receiver. At 5-9 and 190 pounds, the Saints have compared
him to Marvin Harrison. He’s on his way to producing like Harrison
this year. He makes catches all over the field and has great rapport
with the best QB in the game.
Tight End
No. 1 – Kevin Boss: He’s only started seven games,
but it’s no wonder the Giants were happy to rid themselves
of Shockey and could care less about getting Gonzalez. Boss is
averaging 8 points per game and only 29% of his games are Subpar;
the rest are actually Elite level. It’s not like the Giants
receivers are world beaters. A good ground game is actually the
best friend of most teams that have productive receivers at this
position. This is no exception.
No. 2 – Tony Gonzalez: The guy is the Father Time of the
Tight End world and he’s still averaging more points per
game than any of them. He’s done it with a QB carousel,
too.
Kicker
John Carney:
He’s hitting 96% of his attempts and made it difficult for Lawrence
Tynes to get his job back. He’s also old as dirt for a kicker,
so he’s paid his dues.
Defense
Baltimore Ravens: The Packers score more per game. The Jets do
too and they have the second-most sacks in football. The Bucs
are perennially tough as are the Eagles, but for my money I’m
sticking with the Ravens. Jim Schwartz, the Titans defensive coordinator,
was quoted in an article last week that fumbles aren’t an
important stat – its luck; interceptions are the true turnover
worthy of tracking. The Ravens lead the league with 19 of interceptions
and 3 safeties, and are second in the NFL in defensive scores.
Only the Giants and Steelers really put it to them offensively
and they have allowed 13 points or less in 7 of 11 games.
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