Green Bay

Impact Player: QB Brian Brohm, Louisville

Whether or not he becomes the next starting QB in Green Bay, the fact he was drafted in round two with Favre gone will make an impact. Aaron Rodgers will either play well enough to put any thoughts to bed of Brohm competing for the job or we’ll see there’s no immediate clear answer in Green Bay. In terms of mechanics and overall decisions, Brohm was one of the more impressive quarterbacks I’ve seen in the last three seasons. He gets rattled under pressure more than one should expect from a blue chip prospect and I’m not completely sold on his pocket presence. These are two big negatives that can keep him from transitioning from great college QB to quality pro starter. This pick does give Green Bay some decent options in the wake of Favre’s retirement, especially with the recent improvement of the offensive line. I’m looking forward to seeing whether Rodgers comes out with something to prove. This should be the greatest impact of this pick.

Sleeper: WR Jordy Nelson, Kansas State

Nelson has similar skills to James Jones, but might be even tougher after the catch. I think this was another good pick by the Packers because they aren’t waiting for Donald Driver to leave before they groom another receiver. I didn’t see enough of Nelson to give him a grade in the RSP, but I believe he warranted a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If needed to play early, he’ll be productive.

Project: TE Jermichael Finley, Texas

Finley is a savvy football player at his position. He does a lot of the little things that make me like his prospects. He sets up delayed releases from the line of scrimmage very well. He catches the ball naturally with his hands and he’s a decent runner. I just don’t see him as a starting quality athlete. Maybe he can improve his athleticism as he ages. If so, he might become a solid starting TE. I just don’t see him as anything more than a #2 TE with some complementary skills at this point.

Notable Free Agents: RB Kregg Lumpkin, Georgia. If he can stay healthy and regain some of his lost speed after an ACL tear two years ago, Lumpkin has the natural skills and football savvy to make the team. He’s a good after contact runner with excellent patience.

Houston

Impact Player: LB Xavier Adibi, Virginia Tech

I like what CB Antwaun Molden offers, but he’s not an immediate player. I think Adibi has the best chance to see the field and make an impact. He operates very well in space and paired with DeMeco Ryans he should have an opportunity to make the most of his ability to play in space. With decent speed, long arms, and coverage skills, Adibi is a poor man’s version of Keith Bullock and with time he could make up the difference.

Sleeper: RB Steve Slaton, West Virginia

Slaton is a great open field runner with speed and an assortment of nifty moves. He’s also a decent receiver out of the backfield. That’s about all I like about him as a runner. Chris Brown and one more year of Ahman Green (if he can eke it out) will man the inside running duties. If Gary Kubiak’s staff can employ some imaginative play sets for Slaton, he’ll make them look good. In fact, I would like to see them convert him to a receiver where he could be dangerous on underneath routes.

Project: QB Alex Brink, Washington State

Brink is one of those late round picks who have enough skill to be a solid backup with coaching. His game isn’t that different than John David Booty’s. He doesn’t move as well as the USC QB, but he’s a pretty smart player. I could call Duane Brown a project, but he’s a first round pick and that would confirm my take on half of Houston’s draft—yuck…

Notable Free Agents: None

Indianapolis

Impact Players: TE Jacob Tamme, Kentucky/RB Mike Hart, Michigan

Ho-Hum, the Colts just acquired another weapon for Peyton Manning to carve up the league. Tamme won’t be an in-line TE, but he’ll be an effective receiver as the #2 TE split away from the line of scrimmage or used as an H-Back. If Dallas Clark gets hurt, Tamme will fill in ably. All this pick does is free up Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Anthony Gonzalez. Mike Hart will shore up RB depth chart. He’s a tough runner with good balance and patience. He’s a high effort player who will be an adequate producer if he sees the field. I don’t think he’ll ever be a star, but do well enough to keep Addai fresh.

Sleeper: LB Philip Wheeler, Georgia Tech

Wheeler seemed on his way to becoming a first day pick after a pretty good junior year. Now he is seen as too slow, over aggressive, and soft. He’s one of those players I believe is more accurate to evaluate as a junior. Since he started a DE and moved to ILB in college, I also believe he hasn’t found a home position just yet. I trust the Colts see something they like in Wheeler that can be put to use right away.

Project: OLB Marcus Howard, University of Georgia

Howard has the speed to be a good edge rusher or zone defender. He was a defensive end in college, so he’ll need time to adjust to a new position in the pro game.

Notable Free Agents: WR Rudy Burgess, Arizona State

Jacksonville

Impact Player: DE Derrick Harvey, Florida

Jacksonville still hasn’t found an impact player off the edge, but Harvey will be good enough to start. If he can at least consistently get close to the QB, he’ll be an improvement. Although they were ok down the stretch without him, the loss of Marcus Stroud could make the Jags more vulnerable up the middle. And I don’t think Harvey will be a superstar quality player to make a huge difference.

Sleeper: DE Quentin Groves, Auburn

This is an explosive edge rusher who could actually provide Jacksonville something they’ve never had. He’s still a bit raw, but he has the aptitude to become a very good player for the long haul. I wouldn’t be surprised if he outplays Harvey.

Project: OLB Thomas Williams, USC

Williams understands how to play the game, but he will need time to get used to the speed of the NFL. He might surprise if he can become a great student of the game, which he has the aptitude to do.

Notable Free Agents: TE/FB Chris Brown, Tennessee. Brown is a good receiver with nice athleticism. I just don’t see him sticking with the Jags unless they suffer a rash of injuries.

Kansas City

Impact Player: DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU

He’s the best player in the draft hands down, no contest. Dorsey plays at a high level even when he’s banged up. When healthy, he’s a monster. He won’t show up on the stats page or highlight reels every week, but he’ll help the rest of the defense. The Chiefs should find themselves employing a lot of stunts and twists to pressure the passer with Dorsey around because the DT will require frequent double teams. There will be fewer highlight runs by the opposing team when they face KC beginning in ’08.

Sleeper: RB Jamaal Charles, Texas

Larry Johnson is one of the best backs in the league. He’s a great combo of power and speed. Jamaal Charles won’t take Johnson’s job, but he will have some electrifying moments as a situational back. If LJ gets hurt, Charles has enough skill to perform at a high level. What the Texas Longhorn must change is his tendency to carry the ball loosely and opt for the higher risk/reward hole at the line of scrimmage. If Charles can demonstrate maturity and a good work ethic, he’ll inherit the starting job in two or three seasons because I doubt LJ will last longer than this with his running style.

Project: TE Brad Cottam, Tennessee

I think this was a reach. The Chiefs could have had Kellen Davis, who would have made a great heir apparent to Tony Gonzalez with a couple of years behind the all-time great. Instead, they get a big, straight line TE who should become an effective blocker and situational receiver, but will limit the KC passing game in ways they could have avoided.

Notable Free Agents: WR Jabari Arthur, Akron—smart, tough receiver with good hands. He could surprise as a strong possession option. RB Kalvin McRae, Ohio—McRae could supplant Koby Smith, because he’s a bit shiftier than the second-year back from Louisville.

Miami

Impact Player: OT Jake Long, Michigan

Whether it is Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, or even Jalen Parmalee (see below), this pick is going to help the ground game immediately. Long will struggle against the top edge rushers, but give him a year or two to adjust. A building block made out of hunk of granite. John Beck will be happy. And I mean John Beck. I continue to hear that this pick “is an indictment of John Beck,” which is just completely reactionary. Bill Parcells knows there aren’t any prospects at the position next year and he wants a player he can develop as quality depth. Chad Henne is not “the next Tom Brady.” He lacks the ability to slide in the pocket and the downfield vision to play well under pressure. He’s a caretaker starter at best, much like Josh McCown or an aging Vinny Testaverde: good enough to keep a team competitive each week, but not a guy to build a team around. Beck on the other hand can give this team a good 6-8 years worth of quality play if he can show he’s catching on in ’08. I believe Parcells saw enough from Beck to give him this chance and if it doesn’t work out, sign a classic game-managing veteran down the line.

Sleeper: RB Jalen Parmale, Toledo

He’s a good after contact runner who will at least be serviceable as a starter if Brown’s rehab goes awry and the Ricky Williams comeback story lacks legs. He won’t ever be a dynamic RB in the NFL, but he’ll be a guy Parcells will like.

Project: DE Phillip Merling, Clemson

Merling is a nice fit for the 3-4 defense. He’ll be rock-solid against the run and decent in passing situations. Parcells and Sporano will eventually land an OLB who can terrorize opponents off Merling’s side.

Notable Free Agents: WR Devon Bess, Hawaii. Bess has very good hands and skills after the catch. He’s not very fast, but he bounces off tackles. He might have a real shot to make the roster because his quickness and lateral movement might compensate for his lack of quicks.

Minnesota

Booty could get the call if Tarvaris Jackson continues to falter.

Impact Player: QB John David Booty, USC

I have a Brad Childress theory and Booty validates it: Childress, a former Eagles offensive coordinator who got media credit for developing Donovan McNabb into a superstar, set the tone with his first coaching job by hand-picking his quarterback Tarvaris Jackson in the second round of the 2006 draft. Childress confidently trumpeted Jackson despite the fact the Arkansas State QB was regarded as a significant reach. Jackson has yet to prove Childress right. His accuracy is lacking. He’s not a dynamic runner like Vince Young and his decision-making is very up and down. In fact, the offensive system has been simplified just to help Jackson stay on the field. This put Childress in a quandary: either the coach with the prickly personality picks a QB early and admits Jackson isn’t what he thought and opens himself to further criticism or he rides his QB to a pink slip.

Fortunately, there’s a third option and that’s where John David Booty comes into play. If Childress and the Vikings could find a QB in the draft who is a good match for their offensive system and nab him on the second day, they could allow Jackson another year to grow or falter and then allow their second day guy to outplay him when it happens. Booty played in a very similar system to Minnesota’s and he will give Childress a more graceful out if he want so ditch Jackson. Personally, I thought San Diego QB Josh Johnson was a more like the player Childress thought he saw with Jackson. Apparently Jon Gruden felt the same way, because he runs the same offense and picked Johnson.

Sleeper: C John Sullivan, Notre Dame

He’s a good addition to this team to groom for their offensive line. Matt Birk isn’t getting any younger and Sullivan can fill in right now if needed.

Project: WR Jaymar Johnson, Jackson State

He’s a small school playmaker, but he needs to learn how to handle press coverage and run good routes.

Notable Free Agents: QB Kyle Wright, Miami: WR Davis Reynaud, West Virginia; and RB Albert Young, Iowa. These three are all quality talents with some component of their game missing. Wright has all the physical tools you want from a QB, but lacked the confidence and consistency to put it all together. With good coaching, he could have a much bright future as a pro; at this point it’s a long shot chance. Reynaud can run the ball and catches it pretty well, but the Rich Rodriguez offensive system makes him inexperienced with pro style routes. I really like Albert Young, but he might be a poor man’s Mike Hart—which from the current perspective looks pretty destitute.

New England

Impact Player: LB Jerod Mayo, Tennessee

I think he’s the best linebacker in the draft and we all know that much of the Pats LB corps is in the 4th QTR of their careers. May can come in an play right away, but he’ll likely make an impact by keeping the current corps fresh while he learns behind a great group of guys. He’s a future pro bowl quality player.

Sleeper: QB Kevin O’Connell, San Diego State

I didn’t watch this guy at all, but from what I’ve read and heard he’s a terrific prospect based on what I think makes a good quarterback. Those key elements are pocket presence, accuracy, and the ability spot the second and third option down field. It’s not likely O’Connell will be seeing playing time, but like the Brett Favre-Mark Brunell-Matt Hasselbeck situation in Green Bay, the Patriots will have depth and future options as O’Connell learns on the bench.

Project: CB Jonathan Wilhite, Auburn

Wilhite has 4.3-speed and he’s a physical corner. He has a lot to learn, but when you have an aggressive cover guy with that I just mentioned, he’s likely to grow into a starter.

Notable Free Agents: None.

New Orleans

Impact Player: DT Sedrick Ellis, USC

If you are an IDP fantasy owner, this pick should make you excited for the Saints. Ellis will allow that Saints defense to tighten up their run defense with their additions of Dan Morgan and Jonathan Vilma to the linebacker corps. These two will be allowed to run free if Ellis does what’s expected. This is especially the case for Vilma, who was an absolute stud in the 4-3 as a rookie with the Jets. This defense could really turn things around with all these pieces in place.

Sleeper: CB Tracy Porter, Indiana

Porter is fast and he tracks the ball in the air very well. He’s very talented defending the ball while it is in the air. He’s not a physical presence and bigger receivers will likely eat him alive as a rookie. Still, if the Saints play as I expect they can hide his weaknesses with a good pass rush and a run-stuffing unit headed by Fujita, Morgan, and Vilma.

Project: WR Adrian Arrington, Michigan

I don’t really understand the hype surrounding Mario Manningham. I though Arrington was often the better receiver of the two. I’m not sure he has the ability to separate at the pro level, but his hands and willingness to go across the middle give him a chance.

Notable Free Agents: QB T.C. Ostrander, Stanford. Teams are likely scared off by his much-publicized seizure. Otherwise, he has the physical skills and experience in a pro style offense to develop into an NFL player. His lack of college experience due to injury doesn’t make it likely for him to be a future starter in the pros, but he could grow into a back up.

New York Giants

Impact Player: S Kenny Phillips, Miami

There are those that say Phillips was a reach, but he’s a big, athletic player with a big-time background. The Giants need a safety, so Phillips will either, be a hit and make their defense that much better, or he’ll leave them in a bind. I think he’ll be good enough, but never great.

Sleeper: LB Jonathan Goff, Vanderbilt

Goff has very good range and is an excellent player in space. He needs to work on his technique to shed blockers, but I like his chances to grow into the job and quicker than anticipated.

Project: QB André Woodson, Kentucky

I don’t like his Leftwich-like release, but he’s a very competitive player with humility. I believe that last quality is good enough for him to take to coaching. If you followed Kentucky football, you would know that Woodson was benched at one point in his career. He spent an off-season as the backup. Instead of pouting, he worked hard and continued to act like a leader both vocally and by example. He improved as a player and gained the respect of his teammates and coaching staff. I believe Woodson will become a student of the game as a pro and correct some of his flaws. He’s not a player I would pick in a dynasty draft, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes a free agent commodity in 3-4 seasons.

Notable Free Agents: WR DJ Hall, Alabama. As an athlete Hall is effortless, graceful is an accurate description for him. But all too often effortless takes on a bad connotation with Hall. The Alabama receiver does not take the game seriously.

New York Jets

Impact Players: DE/OLB Vernon Gholston, Ohio State/TE Dustin Keller, Purdue

The Jets desperately need a playmaker on defense and Gholston has that ability. As with many of the prospects in this draft, Gholston hasn’t displayed the consistency that teams would like to see in order to feel comfortable about picking him so early. If he becomes the great pass rusher the Jets expect, the offense will have more opportunities to play a more conservative game plan with their developing offensive line. The problem I see here is that the 3-4 defense needs multiple pass rushers to make it effective. This means there will be a lot of pressure on Gholston that isn’t warranted.

Dustin Keller is a going to make the most immediate impact because he’s a top-notch receiver as a TE. Chris Baker, a 6-year vet who is in the middle of negotiations, already sees what’s in store. But I think Keller will be put in the slot or in 2-TE sets which will make the play action game much more effective. Think about the Colts when they had Pollard and Clark. These two players forced the defense to respect the seams, which created single coverage on the outside for their receivers. I believe the same thing will happen in New York, especially if they can get make up with Chris Baker get him to buy into the concept.

Sleeper: QB Erik Ainge, Tennessee

I hated the Volutneer’s passing game, but I liked what I saw out of Danny Ainge’s nephew. The rookie QB is a nice athlete who avoids the pass rush effectively and spots the open man downfield. He has a little bit of a basketball point guard in him, which isn’t a bad trait for a pro quarterback to own. The problem with the Tennessee offense was the reliance on the short passing game due to the limitations of their receivers. In 2006, Robert Meachem was mostly effective on hitches and slants and their other receivers were slower, underneath players. Last year, Ainge’s receiving corps was very young. What I like about most about Ainge is he responded well to coaching when the Mannings’ college QB coach/coordinator David Cutcliffe worked with him. I still believe Kellen Clemens has the skills to be a decent starter, but Ainge still has his best ball left to play.

Project: RB/FB Jehuu Caulrick, Michigan State

Caulcrick is a free agent signing, but I still believe he has the raw skill to become a better than expected runner. He ran a slow time, but this Liberian-born prospect is still relatively new to football. I saw some really nice instincts and patience for a young player. His footwork was what caught my eye the most. He’s very light on his feet for a 250-lb runner with a physical style.

Notable Free Agents: RB Danny Woodhead, Chadron State. He’s about the size of Ray Rice and Mike Hart, but played at a small program. He does have good speed and lateral movement.

Part 3...