QB Byron Leftwich,
JAX 7/6/04
The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense
of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check
is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s
a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information.
This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s
potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining
the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines
that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.
Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic,
he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and
help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep
a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This
way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider,
or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast
as you can!
It's time to look at THE player. We're not talking about THE
player in the sense that LT, Priest Holmes, or Randy Moss has
been from year to year. We're talking about THE player that you
should make an aggressive play to acquire during the meat of your
draft. True, one shouldn't reach for too many players--that's
the value of playing it safe. But there will be moments in every
draft just as in any game--football, poker, or life for that matter--where
one has to temporarily abandon the game plan and gamble. This
year, Byron Leftwich is that gamble and The Gut Check is betting
2004 will be the final time that you will read anything about
Leftwich that doesn't have at least one of these qualifiers preceding
his position and name:
Pro-bowl
All pro
Elite
Superstar
Strong statement? Not at this point. Many of you have seen the
growing hype surrounding Leftwich. If it isn't CBS Sportsline's
Pete Prisco lauding Leftwich's work ethic, then it's
ESPN's Ron Jaworski conducting a film clinic on draft day
to illustrate why he feels the Jaguars' quarterback was
ahead of Peyton Manning at the same point in his rookie year,
and will be a top five passer in 2004. So an FFToday.com column
on Leftwich, profiling him as the fantasy flavor of the preseason
doesn't appear to be groundbreaking stuff.
But what if The Gut Check tells you we'll eventually have to
add "super bowl champion," and "most valuable player,"
to this list? Well, I guess that means yours truly not only jumped
on the bandwagon, he car-jacked it and is leading the cops on
a high-speed chase that's likely to end badly. The truth is the
Gut Check took everything he had and hitched his wagon to Byron
Leftwich without so much as a test drive. In August 2003, he traded
away a freshly injured, Michael Vick in a dynasty league for Leftwich
and a bunch of players that amounted to pocket change.
The season had yet to begin and this league wondered if The Gut
Check was out to lunch! There's no denial here that more
could have been extracted from the current Vick owner, but ultimately
the league was convinced not to overturn the deal. Considering
the Gut Check brokered Steve McNair and Brian Westbrook from the
same owner for Tom Brady and a mid-round pick early on, he rationalizes
the grand total of McNair, Leftwich, Westbrook, and what turned
out to be Cedric Cobbs for Vick ain't too shabby. Even so,
the Gut Check doesn't care what you think. He doesn't
care what his colleagues here or at other sites will tell you
about value. By late August, Leftwich's fantasy stock will
either be inching its way up their rankings, or they'll
be hyping him next year as an elite quarterback long after it's
already a safe play.
Screw the safe play. You don't win championships without taking
risks--if you are drafting prior to the preseason games, GET THIS
PLAYER NOW! If you have to reach for him a bit in your draft in
August, do it. Remember, this is THE player that should be your
calculated gamble on greatness when creating a draft strategy.
Sometimes there's more than one of these players every year, but
it's a good bet to focus on the quarterback position. This is
because quarterbacks tend to make big, performance leaps from
their first to second years as starters. Pay attention to the
fact that The Gut Check is saying as starters. This means
you should pay attention to 3rd or 4th year players that have
earned their second consecutive year to start for the same team.
Making a calculated gamble such as this, allows an owner to wait
a bit longer on drafting a quarterback and acquire more depth
at RB and WR--where an owner increases his chances of gaining
valuable depth or unexpected breakout players. Generally an owner
can take this type of gamble and still follow up with a veteran
capable of delivering solid, fantasy performances on a consistent
basis. The Gut Check took a look at quarterbacks over a twenty-year
period that went from fantasy depth to fantasy force in either
their second year, or their second year as a consistent starter.
The results show the payoff is excellent for the owner that takes
the risk:
Ranked In Top Ten? |
Player |
1st Year |
Yds |
TDs |
2nd Year |
Yds |
TDs |
Dan Marino |
1983 |
No |
No |
1984 |
1st |
1st |
Tony Eason |
1983 |
No |
No |
1984 |
10th |
7th |
Boomer Esiason |
1984 |
No |
No |
1986 |
10th |
2nd |
Ken O'Brien |
1984 |
No |
No |
1985 |
3rd |
6th |
Jim Kelly |
1985 |
No** |
No** |
1986 |
6th |
5th |
Randall Cunningham |
1986 |
No |
No |
1987 |
9th |
4th |
Jim Everett |
1987 |
No |
no |
1988 |
2nd |
1st |
Don Majkowski |
1988 |
No |
No |
1989 |
1st |
3rd |
Brett Favre |
1992 |
9th |
8th |
1993 |
6th |
5th |
Drew Bledsoe |
1994 |
No |
No |
1995 |
1st |
1st |
Jeff Blake |
1994 |
No |
No |
1995 |
8th |
5th |
Mark Brunnell |
1995 |
No |
No |
1996 |
1st |
8th |
Jake Plummer |
1997 |
No |
No |
1998 |
4th |
No |
Peyton Manning |
1998 |
3rd |
5th |
1999 |
3rd |
3rd |
Donovan McNabb |
1999 |
No |
No |
2000 |
No* |
7th |
Jeff Garcia |
1999 |
No |
No |
2000 |
2nd |
3rd |
Daunte Culpepper |
1999 |
No |
No |
2000 |
4th |
1st |
Aaron Brooks |
2000 |
No |
No |
2001 |
4th |
5th |
Tom Brady |
2001 |
No |
No |
2002 |
6th |
1st |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Totals |
Yds |
TDs |
Both |
|
|
|
% Top 5 |
58% |
74% |
42% |
|
|
|
|
*McNabb's rushing totals made him a top 5 ff qb, although not
a top 5 passer, statistically.
**Kelly was in the USFL in 1985.
As one can see, the caliber of players on this list ranges from
Hall of Famer to one-year wonders. Yet just from playing the percentages,
the owner that picks a second year (or second year starter) at
quarterback that is likely projected at best as a second-tier
fantasy passer has a good shot of getting a player that will not
only crack the top ten in yards and tds, but has a better than
even chance to be in the top five for yardage and nearly a 75%
chance of making the top five in scoring. This means Kyle Boller,
Josh McCown, and Carson Palmer may be good risks this year as
well--but 14 out of the 19 qbs listed in the table played in at
least 10 games and had over 200 attempts in their rookie year.
That's why the better gamble is a player with reps in actual games.
Statistically speaking, Leftwich is the best choice of the three
with Boller, McCown, and Palmer behind him in that order.
But behind the statistics, The Gut Check really believes Leftwich
has that special something in common with Montana, Elway, and
Favre. He's a leader that understands what teamwork means.
And just like these greats, Leftwich's game isn't
based on his athleticism nearly as much as what lies between his
ears. He's a warrior on the field; a field general in the
huddle; and a gym rat on Monday-Saturday. The Gut Check wants
to tell you why this is case.
Yours truly first saw the field general on display at the end
of his junior season. Down by 30 points to East Carolina at halftime
in the 2001 GMAC Bowl, Leftwich took command of the game: 41 for
70 for 576 yards, 4 tds in the air, and 1 on the ground rallied
Marshall to a 64-61 win in double-overtime. But the numbers didn't
do his play justice. Leftwich's completion percentage (58.5%)
belied the level of accuracy put on display. In the second half
alone, his receivers dropped no less than 8 passes. We're
not talking about overthrows or squeezing the ball into career-ending
tight spots. These drops were not only catch-able, but so right
on the money they were bouncing off player's hands! In fact,
The Gut Checked short-changed Leftwich:
You've got to do what you've got to do to get your point across.
These guys know what they have to do and they understand that
when they drop a pass that they made a mistake and we joke about
it. They'd say, "Aw man if we'd have caught all twelve
of those dropped passes, you'd have thrown for too many yards
and they'd be wondering what we're doing here!" We understand
that dropped passes are going to happen and that occasionally
they're going to drop a bomb or a big play, but I miss passes
too. The drops in the Bowl wasn't an every game thing and we
just had to fight through it.
In the Gut Check's mind, you have to bump that 58.5% to at least
70% (49 out of 70) and if you give him full-credit for the 12 drops
then we're talking about 74%--which really does reflect his performance
in that game. Considering Leftwich threw for 67% in the 2001 season,
this isn't too far-fetched. Nor can you downplay Leftwich's command
of the huddle--keeping 10 players confident and loose when down
by 30 is sometimes much harder than putting a ball right on the
money.
While the East Carolina game served notice to The Gut Check that
Leftwich was a competitor, it was the following year he saw the
warrior. Leftwich suffers an injury to his shin in the first quarter
of Marshall's game against Akron. While he only misses one
play and returns to the field to lead the Thundering Herd on a
nine-play drive for a touchdown, he's taken in for X-rays
and misses the rest of the half. Bit Leftwich makes his way back
to the field mid-way through the third quarter and puts on one
of the gutsiest performances seen in college football that year.
The first drive upon returning, he leads Marshall to a touchdown.
But as the game wears on, Leftwich is barely able to stand up.
His teammates have to carry him to the huddle after each successful
play. That doesn't stop Leftwhich from completing 19 of 30 passes
(63%) for 259 yards in that span. Although Marshall lost the game,
it hit home. Leftwich is special. There was no reason he should
have even been in the game. As a certain first round pick, Leftwich
had little to prove to scouts. If anything, Leftwich put his NFL
career in potential jeopardy when he decided to stay in the game--and
subsequently returned for the final four games of the season with
what we learned after the fact was a stress facture. If anything,
his courage created more questions for scouts to ponder whether
his leg was fully healed as draft day approached.
But The Gut Check didn't have to ponder anything. Leftwich
cared more about winning than anything and it's that type
of warrior mentality that keeps elite quarterbacks in the game
when most pro signal callers would call it a day. It's why
McNair, McNabb, and Favre not only stay in the game, but also
elevate their play when others would be in too much pain to even
elevate their rear ends off the bench. It's why Leftwich
inspires leadership.
"Forget the Heisman," Marshall center Jeff Edwards
said. "Forget New York. Forget all that stuff. He just proved
to me what kind of player he is. He's not in it for himself.
If he were in it for himself, if he were in it for the Heisman
he wouldn't have been out there at the end of the game."
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's only college football. But as Leftwich
endured his rookie year with his share of untimely mistakes, there
were too many flashes of greatness to ignore. The Gut Check doesn't
care that Leftwich's first preseason action was in the 4th quarter
against the Dolphins second team. Fresh off a 19- day hold out
with only two days or practice, Leftwich led the Jaguars on a
10-play, 70-yard drive, capping it with an impressive TD pass
to Donald Hayes. No, this doesn't make Leftwich a great player.
But shows that he is incredibly poised. Even when other rookies
fared well against second team defenses in the preseason, they
at least had a few weeks of physically practicing the playbook
and getting familiar with their teammates. Leftwich learned his
playbook at home and then assimilated what he learned in a game.
It was enough for Jack Del Rio to comment that his knowledge of
the playbook for his first game was "scary."
Just think about the ramifications of Leftwich's ability to transfer
his intelligence into physical action. This is a player that called
95% of his own plays at Marshall. Once he learns the Jaguars playbook
and NFL defensive tendencies the way he knew the Thundering Herd
playbook, game-winning touchdown drives will become more commonplace.
Even when he loses, Leftwich has already proven the willingness
to shoulder the blame. This tells you he knows he's the leader
and is willing to take the responsibility. The Gut Check heard
about references to Ryan Leaf and rumors Leftwich was a bit aloof
in the locker room. But offensive leaders like Fred Taylor and
Jimmy Smith saw past all the growing pains and effusively praised
the rookie's potential to develop into a leader. They see that
Leftwich will push himself to excel harder than anyone around
him--that's the sign of greatness.
These traits may make Leftwich a great NFL quarterback, but so
was Troy Aikman--and he was a poor fantasy option. What has The
Gut Check screaming for you to grab Leftwich is his gunslinger
attitude. He looks for the big plays first and isn't afraid to
take calculated risks with a game-changing throw. Just like The
Gut Check has been saying all this time, you have to pick your
spots to go for broke. It's no different in any game, and this
is why Leftwich is going to be a statistical force. His rookie
year alone, he had completions for 45, 49, 60, 67, and 84 yards.
In a 17-10 victory against Tampa Bay where Leftwich threw for
2 tds and 224 yards, Jon Gruden clearly showed in his brief, halftime
interview on ESPN that he was impressed with the rookie and surprised
by his aggressiveness.
You don't see this successful level of aggressive play from rookie
quarterbacks very often. The tendency to try to force balls in
where they don't belong or throw the ball up for grabs rather
than take the sack or throw it away is often the more common approach
for a young QB. Although Leftwich had his fair share of miscues,
his failed attempts were more often attempts to go for the kill
rather than save one self from a bad play. Now what would you
rather have, a player that screws up trying to win or a player
that makes mistakes because he's trying to avoid losing? Personally,
I like guys that play to win rather than play not to lose. The
will to win shows up even in Leftwich's bad decisions--it's the
ultimate intangible that predicts success.
Leftwich's rookie stats illustrate this point. The Jacksonville
QB's best QB ratings occurred in 4th quarter games. These weren't
garbage time blowouts, either--more like tightly contested ballgames:
In His Rookie Year... |
Quarter |
Att |
Comp |
Pct |
Yds |
YPA |
Lg |
TD |
Int |
1st |
1rst % |
20+ |
Sac |
Rate |
1ST QUARTER |
76 |
45 |
59 |
501 |
6.59 |
67 |
2 |
3 |
28 |
62.2 |
3 |
3 |
71.2 |
2ND QUARTER |
114 |
63 |
55 |
727 |
6.38 |
49 |
3 |
6 |
34 |
54 |
13 |
7 |
61.5 |
3RD QUARTER |
88 |
47 |
53 |
608 |
6.91 |
84 |
2 |
2 |
25 |
53.2 |
7 |
3 |
73.5 |
4TH QUARTER |
140 |
84 |
60 |
983 |
7.02 |
60 |
7 |
5 |
48 |
57.1 |
10 |
6 |
83.1 |
FOURTH QUARTER WITHIN 7 |
132 |
78 |
59 |
922 |
6.98 |
60 |
7 |
5 |
45 |
57.7 |
10 |
5 |
82.3 |
|
Leftwich threw for more touchdowns, had a better TD:INT ratio,
completed more long yardage plays, and had a significantly better
QB rating in the 4th quarter than any other part of the game.
Even with his rookie-like numbers, there's a clear picture
here and it depicts an aggressive player that thrives under pressure.
The Jaguars have all the tools and the right environment to make
a move. Jack Del Rio played a major role in building the Panthers'
defense and started with type of personnel in Jacksonville to
use a similar blueprint. The addition of ReggieWilliams and what
looks like early signs of Jimmy Smith returning to his formerly
explosive form have been the most talked about reasons for Jackonsville's
predicted offensive renaissance. But it is the development of
two other players that should help Leftwich make the jump to the
elite, Troy Edwards and George Wrighster.
Edwards, a former first round pick, is showing signs that he
understands what it means to be a successful professional and
will likely be the slot receiver this year. As Bobby Engram and
Az-Zahir Hakim have shown at various points in their careers,
an effective slot receiver leads to big years for NFL quarterbacks.
Edwards is still a relatively young player and has the size, quickness,
and ability with the ball in the open field to be a game-breaking
target in 2004. Wrighster is currently behind Kyle Brady, but
has the hands and quickness to be a reliable safety value and
intermediate threat in the seam--something he displayed flashes
of as a rookie. Even if it takes another year for Wrighster, Brady
has the experience to be an excellent red zone option.
Add Fred Taylor to the list of receivers that can spread the
field and make things happen with the ball, and it's not
hard to guess that Bill Musgrave's version of the west coast
offense will employ aggressive, vertical-passing strategies that
he learned under Mike Shannahan's tutelage. Musgrave has
gone on record to say that Taylor should get more 25-carry games
in order for them to be successful. This is great news for Taylor
owners but it doesn't mean Leftwich will be out in the cold,
fantasy-wise. Taylor's carries will enhance the play action
game and this will give Leftwich more one-on -one opportunities
with Jimmy Smith and Reggie Williams downfield.
The aim is to increase their points per game from 17 to 27, and
when a team has a number like this to shoot for, there's
usually enough data to support that the figure is attainable.
Tennessee averaged 27 points per game last year and went 12-4
in the AFC South where the defenses are improving, but each of
the teams in the division has holes to fill. If anything the division
is packed with QB talent and could wind up as the most explosive
and contested in the NFL over the next five years.
There is additional statistical credence that Leftwich is likely
to have a breakout season. The Gut Check looked at 50 quarterbacks
between 1992 and 2002 that started games during their rookie seasons.
After narrowing it down to qbs that started at least 60% of their
rookie season, he discovered there was a correlation between passers
that played at least 10 games their first year and had significant
statistical improvement their following year when they started
all 16 games in year two:
1st Year |
QB |
G |
Comp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
TD |
INT |
Harrington |
14 |
215 |
429 |
50.1 |
2294 |
5.3 |
12 |
16 |
McNabb |
12 |
106 |
216 |
49.1 |
948 |
4.4 |
8 |
7 |
Manning |
16 |
326 |
575 |
56.7 |
3939 |
6.5 |
26 |
28 |
Plummer |
10 |
157 |
296 |
53 |
2203 |
7.4 |
15 |
15 |
Banks |
14 |
192 |
368 |
52.2 |
2544 |
6.9 |
15 |
15 |
Bledsoe |
13 |
214 |
429 |
49.9 |
2494 |
5.8 |
15 |
15 |
Avg |
13 |
201.7 |
385.5 |
51.83 |
2403.7 |
6.05 |
15.17 |
16 |
B. Leftwich 2003 |
13 |
239 |
418 |
57.2 |
2819 |
6.74 |
14 |
16 |
|
2nd Year |
QB |
G |
Comp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
TD |
INT |
Harrington |
16 |
309 |
554 |
55.8 |
2880 |
5.2 |
17 |
22 |
McNabb |
16 |
330 |
569 |
58 |
3365 |
5.9 |
21 |
13 |
Manning |
16 |
331 |
533 |
62.1 |
4135 |
7.8 |
26 |
15 |
Plummer |
16 |
324 |
547 |
59.2 |
3737 |
6.8 |
17 |
20 |
Banks |
16 |
252 |
487 |
51.7 |
3254 |
6.7 |
14 |
13 |
Bledsoe |
16 |
400 |
691 |
57.9 |
4555 |
6.6 |
25 |
27 |
Avg |
16 |
324.3 |
563.5 |
57.45 |
3654.3 |
6.5 |
20 |
18.33 |
% Difference 1st to 2nd year |
122% |
161% |
146% |
111% |
152% |
107% |
132% |
115% |
|
As with the previous table, the caliber of quarterbacks ranges from
superstars to eventual busts, but there's no denying that even the
worst performers of this grouping had better second years if at
the very least due to exposure to the game. If we were to take the
average statistical improvement between year one and year two for
these quarterbacks and apply it to Leftwich--a qb that started 13
games--then we see that his performance leap would vault him into
the top 10 in terms of fantasy qb production:
2nd Year Projections |
|
G |
Comp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
TD |
INT |
FF Pts |
B. Leftwich 2004 w/ formula |
16 |
384 |
611 |
63.4 |
4286 |
7.24 |
18 |
18 |
311 |
GC's Projections before research |
16 |
325 |
525 |
61.9 |
3700 |
7.05 |
25 |
17 |
311 |
|
Interestingly enough, The Gut Check actually made his projections
for the Staff Consensus Rankings
nearly two weeks prior to conducting this research. It's worth noting
that although the yardage and td's are significantly different between
the two projections, the research supported the Gut Check's projected
leap in terms of overall fantasy points. So do some mock drafts
with some of your co-owners and find out what they think of Leftwich,
then make your move and play to win rather than not to lose. |