Random Thoughts
12/3/04
The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense
of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check
is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s
a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information.
This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s
potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining
the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines
that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.
Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic,
he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and
help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep
a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This
way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider,
or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast
as you can!
If The Gut Check were an omnipotent force of management over
any and all NFL organizations here's some of the things he'd do:
Hypnotize the Chargers brass and do everything
they can to keep Drew Brees. Listen up, A.J. Smith. Just
admit that you were impatient. If the best player on your team
had enough balls to publicly support Brees when everyone in the
world knew you were drafting a quarterback and still have the
patience to sign a deal that will keep him a Charger for what
will likely be the rest of career, you need to re-evaluate your
plan.
You dump Brees and you're costing the Chargers at least two years
worth of playoff appearances just to hopefullyand Yours
Truly means hopefullyregain some semblance of chemistry,
leadership, and developed talent you let go in Brees. Why? The
guy wants to stay a Charger. At the beginning of this year, most
people would have thought he was crazyor just such a bad
quarterback that he's desperate to stay in the league as a starter.
In fact that's exactly what most people thought and he proved
you and your coach wrong. Be men, admit your mistakes, and do
what's best for the team.
Here's the deal: trade Rivers for an experienced back up with
starting capability, but knows his rolelike Jon Kitna or
Kelly Holcomb. You still have some nice picks from dealing away
Eli Manning, which might allow you to move up in the draft and
nab a receiver like Braylon Edwards. Or better yet, acquire a
free agent like Jerry Porter and let Schottenheimer load up on
the defense.
Make scouts recognize that Carnell Williams
and Ronnie Brown are clearly the best RB prospects coming out
of college in 2004. The draft class will be deep at running
back this year, but don't let anyone tell you different. The two
backs at Auburn are the best of the lot. Cadillac Williams is
a natural playmaker that despite his relatively thin frame, excels
as an inside runner. This guy that piled up yards on 30-plus carry
games against top notch defenses like the University of Georgia
that had the likes of Boss Bailey, Charles Grant, Sean Jones,
Thomas Jones, and Marcus Stroud opposing him.
Williams is able to do this because of his excellent vision not
only before entering the hole, but also while running through
the hole. He's a patient runnersomething few runners display
this early in their careersespecially when they have the
type of game breaking speed Williams possesses. Cadillac is as
polished a runner as you'll see coming out of the draft. He rarely
loses yardage because he runs with a good body lean and this also
makes him a good finisher on the inside. At the same time, Williams
is perfectly capable of taking a play outside for big yardage.
Although scouts like to say Ronnie Brown might be a better NFL
prospect because he's had least mileage in college, The Gut Check
doesn't buy into this as the reason. Williams is the type of runner
that knows how to avoid a big hit. Rarely do opposing defenders
get a clean shot on him.
Combine these traits with Portis-like moves in the open field,
receiving skills, and kick return prowess and it's understandable
why Williams has remained the unquestioned starter for Auburn
despite the presence of Ronnie Brown and, until this year, Brandon
Jacobs. The Gut Check believes we'll hear a lot of nitpicking
about Williams' lack of size and more development needed as a
pass blocker, but ultimately Cadillac will be an impact RB before
his rookie year is up.
On the other hand, Ronnie Brown is already a good a pass blocker.
Brown is also a more physical runner that looks for contact and
has displayed his versatility lining up at fullback, tight end,
and in the slot. Although Yours Truly doesn't agree that Brown
is a better runner than Williams, he does admit that Brown's style
will be a better fit for many NFL teams because of his down hill
style and already developed skills as a blocker and receiver.
The Gut Check would like to see either of these backs in Atlanta,
Houston, Oakland, or Arizona where they could make an impact right
away
But keep an eye on Ryan Moats:
The Louisana Tech runner turned the NCAA's top passing team in
2003 into one of the best rushing offenses in 2004. Moats has
a low center of gravity, good burst, excellent moves in the open
field, a terrific stiff arm, and great balance. Yours Truly watched
Moats shred defenses in the first half of the season before getting
nicked up at mid-season. Former Ohio State head coach, John Cooper,
labeled Moats an excellent NFL prospect. Coming from a coach that
recruited Raymont Harris, Robert Smith, and Eddie George, The
Gut Check thinks Cooper is a good source on the subject of RBs.
Moats will likely wind up a 3rd or 4th round pick, but he has
the talent to be the his draft class' S.O.D.
Bench Randy Moss until he can beat someone
deepor only bring him on the field when inside the 20.
Yours Truly owns Moss in a dynasty league, and he benefits greatly
from Moss monopolizing Culpepper's attention in the passing game.
But The Gut Check thinks Culpepper would become an even better
quarterback if forced to go to other options. It makes little
sense to risk Moss to further injury. Teams are going to realize
they can single cover Moss outside of the red zone until he proves
he get deepand based on last week, Moss looked several weeks
away from being able to run that fast.
Get Houston TE Billy Miller back into
the passing game. Miller was a terrific fantasy TE a couple
of years ago when he was David Carr's only option, but he disappeared
with the development of Andre Johnson. Last week was his first
taste of extended looks in the passing game and he produced. When
the NFL has modified it's rules to benefit TE's as much as it
has, The Gut Check doesn't understand why Houston has failed to
exploit Miller's talentsespecially when Jabar Gaffney and
Corey Bradford aren't the type of receivers that create and exploit
mismatches on a regular basis. This is just too inexplicable
Let's move on to another little ditty called Over The Hill
Or My Demise Has Been Greatly Exaggerated:
Mark BrunellBrunell was never
a great fantasy quarterback. Even in his Jacksonville heyday,
Brunell's best season (1996) made him the fourth-best quarterback
in most fantasy leagues:
Mark Brunell |
Year |
Team |
G |
GS |
Pct |
Pass Yd |
Pass TD |
INT |
Rush Yd |
Rush Att |
Rush TD |
FF Pts |
1994 |
gnb |
2 |
0 |
44.44% |
95 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
11.45 |
1995 |
jax |
13 |
10 |
58.09% |
2168 |
15 |
7 |
480 |
67 |
4 |
240.4 |
1996 |
jax |
16 |
16 |
63.38% |
4367 |
19 |
20 |
396 |
80 |
3 |
351.95 |
1997 |
jax |
14 |
14 |
60.69% |
3281 |
18 |
7 |
257 |
48 |
2 |
273.75 |
1998 |
jax |
13 |
13 |
58.76% |
2601 |
20 |
9 |
192 |
49 |
0 |
229.25 |
1999 |
jax |
15 |
15 |
58.73% |
3060 |
14 |
9 |
208 |
47 |
1 |
235.8 |
2000 |
jax |
16 |
0 |
60.74% |
3640 |
20 |
14 |
236 |
48 |
2 |
297.6 |
2001 |
jax |
15 |
0 |
61.10% |
3309 |
19 |
13 |
224 |
39 |
1 |
269.85 |
2002 |
jax |
15 |
0 |
58.89% |
2788 |
17 |
7 |
207 |
43 |
0 |
228.1 |
2003 |
jax |
3 |
0 |
65.85% |
484 |
2 |
0 |
19 |
8 |
1 |
40.1 |
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It wasn't like Brunell got a fat contract to lead a bunch of
stiffs in Washington. Although it can be argued that Joe Gibbs'
conservative offense and injuries to the offensive line were contributors
to the lackluster production, Yours Truly has a tough time reconciling
the fact that Clinton Portis, Laveranues Coles, and Rod Gardner
are the problem. Quarterback is the one offensive position that
seriously helps or hampers the team and Brunell's veteran presence
and knowledge of the game could not outweigh his dwindling arm
and mobility. If Yours Truly thought it would make a difference,
he'd write Daniel Snyder and Joe Gibbs and tell these two to make
some sort of deal for Drew Brees before Arizona starts a serious
courtship.
Verdict: Over The Hill.
Jeff GeorgeThis guy's career
epitomized the concept of fantasy tease:
Jeff George |
Year |
Team |
G |
GS |
Pct |
Pass Yd |
Pass TD |
INT |
Rush Yd |
Rush Att |
Rush TD |
FF Pts |
1990 |
clt |
13 |
12 |
54.19% |
2152 |
16 |
13 |
2 |
11 |
1 |
177.8 |
1991 |
clt |
16 |
16 |
60.21% |
2910 |
10 |
12 |
36 |
16 |
0 |
189.1 |
1992 |
clt |
10 |
10 |
54.58% |
1963 |
7 |
15 |
26 |
14 |
1 |
134.75 |
1993 |
clt |
13 |
11 |
57.49% |
2526 |
8 |
6 |
39 |
13 |
0 |
162.2 |
1994 |
atl |
16 |
16 |
61.45% |
3734 |
23 |
18 |
66 |
30 |
0 |
285.3 |
1995 |
atl |
16 |
16 |
60.32% |
4143 |
24 |
11 |
17 |
27 |
0 |
304.85 |
1996 |
atl |
3 |
3 |
56.57% |
698 |
3 |
3 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
47.9 |
1997 |
rai |
16 |
16 |
55.66% |
3917 |
29 |
9 |
44 |
17 |
0 |
316.25 |
1998 |
rai |
8 |
7 |
55.03% |
1186 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
8 |
0 |
75.5 |
1999 |
min |
14 |
10 |
58.05% |
2816 |
23 |
12 |
41 |
16 |
0 |
236.9 |
2000 |
was |
6 |
0 |
58.25% |
1389 |
7 |
6 |
24 |
7 |
0 |
99.85 |
2001 |
was |
2 |
0 |
54.76% |
168 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
8.4 |
|
When George was good, he was very good (1995, 1997, and 1999). But
three or four excellent seasons out of twelve doesn't engender a
lot of admiration from fantasy ownersespecially when it was
well-broadcasted during his career that George lacked toughness
in the pocket to such an extent that opposing defenses would watch
George go to the ground just at the sight of an oncoming defender
and rewind the film as if they just watched a hilarious scene from
a Jim Carrey movie. Combine his with his tendency not to stay disciplined
within the offensive scheme and it's no wonder George hasn't played
since 2001.
Still there's Yours Truly can't deny George is a talent. He can
make throws that no other quarterback has ever been able to make.
He's been the Nuke Laloosh of the NFL, except he never had a Crash
Davis to screw his head on straight. Maybe spending three years
in NFL-exile watching quarterbacks like Quincy Carter, A.J. Feeley,
and Mark Brunnel starting for teams did him some good. Besides,
what did 1995, 1997, and 1999 have in common? Each of those years,
George was playing in a finesse offense: the run and shoot days
of June Jones' Falcons; Jon Gruden's Raiders when Napoleon Kauffman
was the leading rusher; and the Vikings' when they were stacked
with Carter, Reed, Moss, and Robert Smith. Lovie Smith is installing
the Rams' offense in Chicago. The Gut Check thinks George could
have a nice, last hurrah for a player that essentially wasted
his enormous talent and his hoping to make up for itespecially
if Rex Grossman either can't stay healthy or make the leap in
2005.
Verdict: Demise is somewhat
exaggerated.
Steve McNairThe Gut Check's
favorite player has gone through a horrible 2004 campaign. This
week, McNair publicly stated he's considering retirement and stuck
to those words when Jeff Fisher tried to give his quarterback
the opportunity to downplay them. The fact that McNair elaborated
further on his thoughts about retirement to include the fact that
he just wants to be able to play with his son and can't even do
that right now, speaks volumes.
McNair has always been a quiet, humble player that hasn't masked
how he's felt to the media. The Gut Check remembers watching McNair
and Torry Holt interviewed on ESPN last year. The broadcaster
referenced the Rams-Titans Super Bowl and asked both players if
they'd like to have a rematch. Before McNair stated the obvious,
all you had to do was watch McNair's face and you could tell the
Titan's quarterback wanted this more than anything in his careerthe
chance to avenge a last second defeated snared out of the jaws
of victory by Rams LB Mike Jones.
So when a player that has gutted through six operations and sleepless
nights to captain one of the most consistently resilient and successful
organizations in the last six seasons starts talking about priorities
in life, it's time to seriously wonder if he's serious about calling
it quits. McNair has watched his core group of players (and locker
room leaders) move on: Bruce Matthews, Frank Wycheck, Randall
Godfrey, Jevon Kearse, and Eddie George. These guys were part
of a vast, veteran support system that was responsible for the
Titans coming back year after year.
Now, McNair is the elder statesman of a team that needs vocal
leadership but he's not used to this role. While McNair is the
soul of this Titans team, Eddie George was its heart. George has
the fire to challenge and inspire his teammates with his words.
McNair has to do it with his playand sometimes, young players
are just too blind to see it.
McNair says he's going to let his body heal and decide before
next season. There's a lot he'll be considering:
- Can the Titans maintain or build on their current talent
with their current salary cap issues?
- Will the youth on this teamRB Chris Brown, WR Tyrone
Calico, Ben Troupe be healthy enough to take the next step in
2005?
- Can McNair return to health before training camp?
The Gut Check thinks the Titans have the pieces to be a dangerous
team in 2005, but they need to know early on if McNair will return.
The Gut Check thinks McNair will realize that 2004 was a lost
season, and the disappointment of going from MVP of a team that
arguably gave the Patriots their biggest challenge to embattled
and injured signal caller of team out of the playoffs by week
11 clouded his perspective.
Verdict: Demise is Greatly
ExaggeratedFisher will talk McNair into staying for one
more year, but the window could be closing fast if Tennessee can't
return to form.
And last, but not least, let's end this week with another version
of Intuition or Indigestion:
Brian Westbrook is returning to
last season's form as a scoring threat from anywhere on the field.
Owners should benefit greatly from their patience with him as
his scoring streak continues.
John Navarre won't last the entire
game against Detroit. Look for Green to give King or McCown another
shot in relief.
Speaking of McCown, Luke McCown
may get his first start this week. Although he's not a good fantasy
start now, he's going to show some skills on Sunday that will
make him an impressive prospect.
Fred Taylor looks healthy for a
change, and isn't just gutting it out. Some of his runs against
Minnesota last week show signs of a player on the verge of busting
out. If you own Taylor, expect some terrific games from him during
your playoffs. Yours Truly even thinks, he'll score on the Steelers.
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