Knowing Your League: Pt 4 - Draft Day
8/17/04
The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense
of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check
is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s
a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information.
This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s
potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining
the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines
that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.
Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic,
he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and
help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep
a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This
way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider,
or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast
as you can!
Draft Day is still on the horizon for most, but The Gut Check just
finished his last draft of the year. Draft Day for the ABFFL was
the ultimate way to cap off a summer. Yours Truly feels like he
just returned from a week at a spa and resort. Come to think of
it, maybe Bentley (our draft day host) is onto something here. Just
imagine handing a brochure to your spouse/girlfriend:
"Want to show that man in your life how much you care? No?
How about showing him how much you want to preserve the sanctity
of your home? Or better yet, send him on a vacation that's so
good, nothing could spoil his mood. In fact, clinical tests have
proven with 99.8% accuracy that our product will maintain your
man's good mood even upon returning to a re-decorated home on
his credit card!!! Better yet, none of this will come at the expense
of your wedding vows. In fact, early studies reveal that resulting
conceptions upon return are skyrocketing at a rate rivaling the
Baby Boom!!!
Does it seem too good to be true??? That's what your man will
think when you send him to Bentley's All-Inclusive, Fantasy Football
Resort located in the heart of college football country and a
convenient hour from the NFL town that boasts one of the leagues'
most exciting players:
- 1300 square feet solely devoted to your fantasy draft.
- Complete war room with draft board.
- Plenty of outlet access for laptops
- Private research facility with High-Speed Internet connection
for last-minute draft day prep.
- 55" Wide-screen TV
- ESPN updates
- Preseason football
- High-capacity/High-comfort seating arrangements
- PS2 with Madden 2005 Special Edition
- The world famous, Space-Eater Menu certified by NFL
Space -Eaters Gilbert Brown, Tony Siragusa, and Keith Traylor:
- Burgers
- Dogs
- Bratwurst
- Pizza
- Beer
- Coke
- Mrs. Bentley's How 'Bout Them Chicken Dip. So good, Bill Parcells
banned his players in partaking-even before he nixed the local,
exotic dance clubs. Athens, Georgia natives are speculating this
dip was the true reason for Quincy Carter's demise.
Think of this as an emotional and financial down payment on a
new living suite and call today before we're completely booked!
Reservations are available with credit card or cash deposit. Remember
ladies, if this doesn't get him excited then as my boy says, 'if
it looks like a rat….'"
Pre-Draft Festivities
As much as The Gut Check missed the confines of The Frank-a place
we all officially bid a fond farewell-Bentley's All-Inclusive
Fantasy Football Resort started a new tradition in grand-style.
The host invited us over the night before, coincidentally the
day that ESPN Page 2's Bill Simmons coined National Madden Day:
the official release of Madden 2005.
Bentley, The Gut Check, Cuji, DB, and Son of a Bentley kicked
off the proceedings with pizza and the Falcons-Ravens preseason
tilt. Then we broke out the Play Station2. We thoroughly tested
Madden 2005 with a five-man tournament. The highlight of the night
was The Gut Check's Titans besting Cuji's 49ers on a 4th down,
Steve McNair corner pattern in the end zone as time expired. It
was initially ruled incomplete before the referee-initiated replay
showed Drew Bennett amazingly getting both feet in bounds while
wearing Mike Rumph as a blanket. Of course, The Gut Check and
Cuji own an X Box, so we were pretty much flailing around for
most of the game as Bentley and Son of a Bentley that eventually
took us to school courtesy of Bentley's Mike Vick and the full
house backfield, and Son of A Bentley's one-play offensive scheme
of Bulger to Bruce.
By the time we finished, it was six in the morning. Better yet,
there was still another 24 hours of football, food, and frivolity.
One more thing before The Gut Check covers the results of the
draft. Yours Truly and Cuji have both played ESPN's 2K5 and Madden
2005. We've both seen the 2K5 vs. 2005 thread on the FFToday Forum,
and we have to agree with those that feel Madden 2005 is the better
game. 2K5 is an excellent package for the price tag, but Cuji
and The Gut Check have to say that Madden's graphics, player maneuverability,
playbook, and Hit Stick are terrific. The 2K5 crib in an interesting
concept, but The Gut Check wants more football and less Sims.
The Main Event
As a reminder, the ABFFL is a 12-team re-draft league with a scoring
system that is somewhat related to the high performance scoring
seen on AntSports. The Gut Check is listing each team according
to draft order and their order of picks along with some commentary
on what transpired:
| Venus |
| Rd |
Player |
Team |
| 1 |
Priest Holmes |
KC |
| 2 |
Stephen Davis |
CAR |
| 3 |
Donovan McNabb |
PHI |
| 4 |
Plaxico Burress |
PIT |
| 5 |
Andre Johnson |
HOU |
| 6 |
Lee Suggs |
CLE |
| 7 |
Roy Williams ® |
DET |
| 8 |
Chad Pennington |
NYJ |
| 9 |
Andre' Davis |
CLE |
| 10 |
Todd Pinkston |
PHI |
| 11 |
Eddie "Boo" Williams |
NO |
| 12 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
|
| 13 |
Jim Kleinsasser |
MIN |
| 14 |
Sebastian Janikowski |
OAK |
| 15 |
David Givens |
NE |
| 16 |
Larry Johnson |
KC |
| 17 |
Vinny Testaverde |
DAL |
| 18 |
Oakland Raiders |
|
| 19 |
John Kasay |
CAR |
| 20 |
Kurt Warner |
NYG |
|
Venus' third draft illustrates
an owner that is on the rise. No one can argue that Priest Holmes
was the top back last year and has shown nothing to lose that distinction.
Stephen Davis falling to 2.12 gives Venus a great 1-2 punch, and
following up with Donovan McNabb makes this owner very dangerous-all
three of these picks have shown the ability to carry a fantasy owner
on any given week. Plaxico Burress was a reach in round four, but
based on Venus' draft position, the Steelers receiver might have
been gone by then end of round six. Venus could have picked Moulds,
Chambers, Porter, or Koren Robinson, started round five with Andre
Johnson, and still had a chance at Burress. This would have given
him more depth without having to take a chance on Roy Williams.
Lee Suggs could wind up being a late season star that takes over
for Stephen Davis on this squad. Chad Pennington was a great selection
in round eight. Venus missed out on handcuffing Davis with Foster,
but did manage to grab Larry Johnson. David Givens and Andre Davis
provide Venus with excellent depth with red zone potential. Overall,
Venus had an excellent draft and should make the playoffs for the
first time.
| DB |
| Rd |
Player |
Team |
| 1 |
Michael Vick |
ATL |
| 2 |
Eddie George |
TEN |
| 3 |
Terrell Owens |
PHI |
| 4 |
Mike Vanderjagt |
IND |
| 5 |
Kellen Winslow ® |
CLE |
| 6 |
Larry Fitzgerald ® |
ARI |
| 7 |
Warrick Dunn |
ATL |
| 8 |
Ben Roethlisberger |
PIT |
| 9 |
New England Patriots |
|
| 10 |
Johnnie Morton |
KC |
| 11 |
Julius Jones ® |
DAL |
| 12 |
LaMont Jordan |
NYJ |
| 13 |
Drew Bledsoe |
BUF |
| 14 |
Dante Hall |
KC |
| 15 |
Ben Troupe ® |
TEN |
| 16 |
Erron Kinney |
TEN |
| 17 |
Amos Zereoue |
OAK |
| 18 |
Greg Jones |
JAC |
| 19 |
Brandon Stokely |
IND |
| 20 |
Matt Schobel |
CIN |
|
DB—T.O.'s former roommate
and a standout college cornerback that once intercepted Steve McNair
twice, is a rookie to fantasy football. The Gut Check wasn't
sure what to expect from DB Michael Vick at 1.02 was a surprise,
but it was a good bet that the Falcons quarterback wouldn't
have made it back to him in round two. Vick has the talent to be
the fantasy MVP once again, but he's a huge risk. Eddie George
might have come back to him in round 4 and he could have had Travis
Henry, Brian Westbrook, Kevin Jones, Chris Brown, or especially
Quentin Griffin. This was likely a case of a rookie owner not keeping
track of the action. He was pretty amazed that others came into
this thing with elaborate lists and laptops. Terrell Owens was a
good pick at the end of round three, but his lack of familiarity
with draft strategies and values really became apparent in the mid-to-late
rounds. It seemed like DB would follow a decent pick with a reach.
Although he picked the best kicker in the game in round four, DB
could have waited at least twice as long for Vanderjagt. This was
a true sign of a rookie that knows football, but has no experience
with fantasy football. Winslow could wind up worth the fifth round
pick, but once again he was valued lower. DB actually capitalized
on The Gut Check's mistake of not acquiring Fitzgerald at
the end of round five, because Yours Truly originally planned to
take Favre on the way back when he saw that DB and Venus already
had their first passer. The Gut Check just forgot after consulting
his Draft Buddy, and lost out on one of the players he targeted.
DB chose too many TE's—we weren't sure what he
was thinking. Dante Hall could be a major sleeper—The Gut
Check thinks Hall could be the best playmaker on the Chiefs receiving
corps, and Vermeil recognized it last season. Overall, this team
is missing a second starting rb and that puts him in the hole. But
if Vick gets off to a good start and DB finds a waiver wire gem,
this team could get competitive fast.
| The Gut Check |
| Rd |
Player |
Team |
| 1 |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
| 2 |
Michael Bennett |
MIN |
| 3 |
Travis Henry |
BUF |
| 4 |
Santana Moss |
NYJ |
| 5 |
Eric Moulds |
BUF |
| 6 |
Brett Favre |
GB |
| 7 |
Brandon Lloyd |
SF |
| 8 |
Chris Brown |
TEN |
| 9 |
Marcus Robinson |
MIN |
| 10 |
Rich Gannon |
OAK |
| 11 |
Kevin Johnson |
BAL |
| 12 |
Onterrio Smith |
MIN |
| 13 |
Dallas Cowboys |
|
| 14 |
Freddie Mitchell |
PHI |
| 15 |
Tony Hollings |
HOU |
| 16 |
Joe Nedney |
TEN |
| 17 |
Daniel Graham |
NE |
| 18 |
Jason Witten |
DAL |
| 19 |
Robert Ferguson |
GB |
| 20 |
Kassim Osgood |
SD |
|
Yours Truly said last week that
he was happy with his draft position due to being sandwiched between
a rookie and a conservative owner. The Gut Check was targeting Ahman
Green as his first round pick, but was surprised to have to choose
between LT2 and Green. In a weird way, The Gut Check was hoping
not to have this decision because he liked Green Bay's offensive
unit much more, but Tomlinson is a special player that he could
not pass up-especially since he's #1 on The Gut Check's board. Michael
Bennett in round two was a more difficult decision because Travis
Henry and Westbrook were still available-talk about being hard up
for choices! Yours Truly chose Bennett due to the strength of the
offensive unit and he figured (incorrectly) that Westbrook, due
to the news of Buckhalter projected to split carries evenly with
the third year back, might fall back to him as far as round four.
Yet it was when Henry was still there at the top of round three
that the Gut Check had no choice but to pounce on him. With the
preseason just beginning and the amount of question marks surrounding
NFL backfields, The Gut Check took the opportunity to get three
backs he felt were in his top fifteen. His choice was even more
gratifying when he was still able to land Santana Moss and Eric
Moulds as his top two receivers. In fact, Cuji was not too happy
to lose out on Moulds and Yours Truly has to credit The Draft Buddy
for helping him keep his data organized to draft the third rb and
still land two excellent starters. This is the first time The Gut
Check has had the pleasure of drafting Brett Favre and doesn't think
last year's leader in passing tds will disappoint. Lloyd was a bit
of a reach, but after Fitzgerald and Leftwich, he was on the list
of mid-round prospects The Gut Check targeted as calculated gambles-especially
with Cuji The Niners fan seated next to him. The steal of the draft
was landing Chris Brown in round eight!!! The Gut Check couldn't
believe the Titans' starter fell this far-and once Brown went off
the board, neither could some of the owners. This meant Yours Truly
didn't have to do a lot of handcuffing of backs. Instead, he had
the luxury of picking the undervalued (Graham, Kevin Johnson, and
Hollings) and the under-appreciated (Gannon, Mitchell, and Marcus
Robinson). The two picks The Gut Check liked the least were Ferguson
and Osgood. Considering they were his last two picks, that's a great
sign.
| Cuji |
| Rd |
Player |
Team |
| 1 |
Ahman Green |
GB |
| 2 |
Kevan Barlow |
SF |
| 3 |
Hines Ward |
PIT |
| 4 |
Joe Horn |
NO |
| 5 |
Koren Robinson |
SEA |
| 6 |
Thomas Jones |
CHI |
| 7 |
Donte' Stallworth |
NO |
| 8 |
Jeremy Shockey |
NYG |
| 9 |
Aaron Brooks |
NO |
| 10 |
Tyrone Calico |
TEN |
| 11 |
Steven Jackson ® |
STL |
| 12 |
Antonio Gates |
SD |
| 13 |
Justin Gage |
CHI |
| 14 |
Correll Buckhalter |
PHI |
| 15 |
David Carr |
HOU |
| 16 |
Tatum Bell |
DEN |
| 17 |
John Carney |
NO |
| 18 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
| 19 |
Cedrick Wilson |
SF |
| 20 |
Mike Anderson |
DEN |
|
Cuji was a major benefactor from
the first round pick of Michael Vick. Ahman Green is arguably primed
for the best season of the top three backs in this draft. Picks
2-4 are especially solid. Koren Robinson as a number three receiver
isn't bad at all. Thomas Jones in the sixth round was a steal. So
was Aaron Brooks in round nine. The only questionable pick was Stallworth,
because he already had Horn. This was admittedly a miscalculation
on his part, but adding Tyrone Calico to the mix was a great adjustment.
Gates is an FFToday favorite at TE and Jackson and Buckhalter are
great value picks. Possibly the only weakness is the lack of depth
at quarterback. The Gut Check once again robbed Cuji with the choice
of Rich Gannon, so David Carr was the best of the remaining crop.
Carr has been a better NFL player than a fantasy quarterback, but
The Gut Check believes the Texan's offensive leader has the experience
and the developing talent to make the next step. Concluding his
draft with Mike Anderson was another telling illustration of Cuji's
experience and study. Anderson is highly undervalued in comparison
to higher profile selections of Griffin, Bell, and Hearst. But there's
a better chance that Anderson will get key carries every game, especially
in scoring situations or injury to Griffin. The scariest thing about
Cuji's draft is his dependence on the Saints' passing game, but
as recent history suggests for both New Orleans and this owner,
he'll be very competitive.
| Dude |
| Rd |
Player |
Team |
| 1 |
Clinton Portis |
WAS |
| 2 |
Chad Johnson |
CIN |
| 3 |
Derrick Mason |
TEN |
| 4 |
Curtis Martin |
NYJ |
| 5 |
Charles Rogers |
DET |
| 6 |
Keenan McCardell |
TB |
| 7 |
Trent Green |
KC |
| 8 |
Baltimore Ravens |
|
| 9 |
Kevin Dyson |
SD |
| 10 |
Jerome Bettis |
PIT |
| 11 |
Byron Chamberlain |
DEN |
| 12 |
Tai Streets |
DET |
| 13 |
Jason Elam |
DEN |
| 14 |
Eli Manning ® |
NYG |
| 15 |
Derrius Thompson |
MIA |
| 16 |
Ladell Betts |
WAS |
| 17 |
Dez White |
ATL |
| 18 |
Moe Williams |
MIN |
| 19 |
Minnesota Vikings |
|
| 20 |
Rex Grossman |
CHI |
|
Dude had his typical draft. Portis,
Johnson, and Mason were a good foundation. If Curtis Martin still
has it and Pennington stays healthy, the Jets starting RB could
be a steal. Rogers was the homer pick The Gut Check expected this
year. McCardell was a reach because of the contract squabble. It
was likely the Dude could have picked McCardell two rounds later
with less potential impact to his team if the Buccaneers' receiver
winds up sitting out for the year. Trent Green was good value in
round seven and Byron Chamberlain is a potential steal in round
eleven. The "once before, now again," Bronco could post some excellent
red zone stats in this offensive scheme that has made Sharpe, Chamberlain,
and Desmond Clark top fantasy players in the past. Kevin Dyson was
a smart pick, but the round he got him was a higher than he was
going in many drafts. Bettis, Streets, Betts, and Williams are players
with little upside, but can fill in during the bye weeks. Eli Manning
and Dez White are possible sleepers-especially White, a talented
practice player that could round into game-day form now that he's
in a better offensive scheme. Rex Grossman is a gamble on greatness,
and the Vikings are an underrated unit that will soon be led by
rookie, Dontarrious Thomas-an LB that would be grabbing even more
attention this season if Jonathan Vilma weren't in the same draft
class. Dude's roster really hinges on Curtis Martin and Keenan McCardell.
If these two players step up he's a playoff contender, but it's
no sure thing.
| 2 Names |
| Rd |
Player |
Team |
| 1 |
Shaun Alexander |
SEA |
| 2 |
Peyton Manning |
IND |
| 3 |
Javon Walker |
GB |
| 4 |
Tony Gonzalez |
KC |
| 5 |
Marcell Shipp |
ARI |
| 6 |
Rod Gardner |
WAS |
| 7 |
Travis Minor |
MIA |
| 8 |
Quincy Morgan |
CLE |
| 9 |
Jeff Wilkins |
STL |
| 10 |
Eddie Kennison |
KC |
| 11 |
Garrison Hearst |
DEN |
| 12 |
Tim Brown |
OAK |
| 13 |
Joey Harrington |
DET |
| 14 |
Seattle Seahawks |
|
| 15 |
Chris Perry ® |
CIN |
| 16 |
John Hall |
WAS |
| 17 |
Darnarian McCants |
WAS |
| 18 |
Adrian Peterson |
CHI |
| 19 |
Denver Broncos |
|
| 20 |
Chris Cooley |
WAS |
|
2 Names came into the league
last year and had a good rookie year, but after a few too many beers
he could be poised for a sophomore slump with the selection of Marcell
Shipp in round five. This pick illustrates the benefits of keeping
up with the news on a day-to-day basis rather than cramming or arriving
to the draft with solely a cheat sheet from a magazine. There were
also a number of homer picks with Gardner, McCants, and Cooley.
All this aside, Two Names has some strong picks with Alexander,
Manning, and Gonzalez. All three picks could put him over the top
on any given week. Walker is a favorite of the Gut Check's this
year-the selection of the Green Bay receiver elicited more than
a few groans and "good picks," from the league. Travis Minor is
a big gamble, considering Chris Brown was still on the board. Add
Brown to this team, and suddenly 2 Names has a competitive unit.
Overall, this team is a good example of how important it is to make
solid picks early. At the same time, as with the Minor/Brown example,
it's also good to know that in one can make up ground even with
a blown selection. In this case 2 Names didn't appear to do it,
but that's why all championships aren't locked up on draft day.
| Bentley |
| Rd |
Player |
Team |
| 1 |
Deuce McAllister |
NO |
| 2 |
Marvin Harrison |
IND |
| 3 |
Peerless Price |
ATL |
| 4 |
Quentin Griffin |
DEN |
| 5 |
Alge Crumpler |
ATL |
| 6 |
Isaac Bruce |
STL |
| 7 |
Keyshawn Johnson |
DAL |
| 8 |
Byron Leftwich |
JAC |
| 9 |
Ron Dayne |
NYG |
| 10 |
Emmitt Smith |
ARI |
| 11 |
Jerry Rice |
OAK |
| 12 |
Antowain Smith |
FA |
| 13 |
Lee Evans ® |
BUF |
| 14 |
Kelley Washington |
CIN |
| 15 |
Brad Johnson |
TB |
| 16 |
Michael Pittman |
TB |
| 17 |
Billy Miller |
HOU |
| 18 |
Aaron Stecker |
NO |
| 19 |
Tennessee Titans |
|
| 20 |
Martin Gramatica |
TB |
|
Bentley took advantage of what
many fantasy football writers and researches call the best position
in a draft-the middle of the round. Not only did Bentley benefit
from D.B.'s pick of Vick (McAllister sliding to 1.07), but he also
reaped the rewards of 2 Names' homer-ism in round six (Rod Gardner)
and wound up with Isaac Bruce. Additionally, Bentley got arguably
the top WR at 2.05 when Torry Holt was actually drafted ahead of
Harrison. Although the Gut Check is not a fan of Peerless Price,
it was a solid pick. Quentin Griffin looks like a 4th round steal
based on his pre-season displays. Alge Crumpler was a reach in round
five, considering that Todd Heap didn't go off the board for another
two rounds. This could have been a good spot to select running back
depth (Staley or Duckett), another solid receiver (Chambers, Porter,
Toomer, Rod Smith, or Branch), or an established fantasy starter
at quarterback (Hassellbeck). Byron Leftwich in the eighth round
was the calculated gamble on greatness that Yours Truly has been
recommending. The night before, Bentley made the attempt to find
out which player the Gut Check was his "must have" and he was shot
down. But The Gut Check knows that Bentley already knew the answer.
It was fun to watch Bentley play dumb all the way through the draft
about this selection. Bentley's selection of Kelley Washington was
another Gut Check target that didn't make it back to Yours Truly
in the round he was hoping to nab the future Bengal stud, and Lee
Evans was another player in this category. But probably the funniest
pick of the night was Ron Dayne. In the past our league would rarely
turn on the TV during the draft, but the atmosphere has loosened
up a bit. Within five minutes of the TV going on, ESPN News was
showing highlights of Ron Dayne's 11-carry, 118-yard night. The
Krispy Kreme jokes were flying, but Bentley must have liked what
he saw because Dayne was gone the very next round. The Gut Check
isn't sure whether our gracious host overreacted or made an astute
adjustment. Either way, Dayne is a decent investment due to the
fact he's slated to split carries with Barber. Overall, Bentley
has a solid playoff contender with upside.
| Raptor |
| Rd |
Player |
Team |
| 1 |
Jamal Lewis |
BAL |
| 2 |
Domanick Davis |
HOU |
| 3 |
Darrell Jackson |
SEA |
| 4 |
Jimmy Smith |
JAC |
| 5 |
Chris Chambers |
MIA |
| 6 |
Deion Branch |
NE |
| 7 |
Todd Heap |
BAL |
| 8 |
Jeff Garcia |
CLE |
| 9 |
Reggie Williams ® |
JAC |
| 10 |
William Green |
CLE |
| 11 |
Mark Brunell |
WAS |
| 12 |
Carolina Panthers |
|
| 13 |
Ryan Longwell |
GB |
| 14 |
Michael Jenkins |
ATL |
| 15 |
Chester Taylor |
BAL |
| 16 |
David Terrell |
CHI |
| 17 |
Corey Bradford |
HOU |
| 18 |
LaBrandon Toefield |
JAC |
| 19 |
Az-Zahir Hakim |
DET |
| 20 |
L.J. Smith |
PHI |
|
Once again, Raptor made wise decisions
throughout most of his draft. Based on last year, Jamal Lewis and
Domanick Davis are a terrific 1-2 punch. The combination of Jackson,
Jimmy Smith, Chris Chambers, and branch is solid from top to bottom.
The Gut Check was a round late on Jimmy Smith, a player he's been
targeting in the mid-rounds of other drafts. Todd Heap was great
value, especially after Alge Crumpler went two rounds earlier. Possibly
the only weakness in his starting lineup is QB. Garcia and Brunell
made need another year with their new teams to accumulate good numbers.
David Terrell is a gamble-on-greatness/homer (University of Michigan)
pick that has good value in round sixteen. L.J. Smith could be a
steal in round twenty. Although the Gut Check isn't crazy about
the depth, Raptor's starters are excellent picks from top to bottom.
If healthy, this team should make the playoffs. QB play will dictate
how far they'll go.
| D.W.W.A. |
| Rd |
Player |
Team |
| 1 |
Edgerrin James |
IND |
| 2 |
Marshall Faulk |
STL |
| 3 |
Steve McNair |
TEN |
| 4 |
Steve Smith |
CAR |
| 5 |
Jerry Porter |
OAK |
| 6 |
Rod Smith |
DEN |
| 7 |
Charlie Garner |
TB |
| 8 |
Drew Bennett |
TEN |
| 9 |
Jake Plummer |
DEN |
| 10 |
Joey Galloway |
TB |
| 11 |
Dallas Clark |
IND |
| 12 |
DeShaun Foster |
CAR |
| 13 |
Matt Stover |
BAL |
| 14 |
Buffalo Bills |
|
| 15 |
Lamar Gordon |
STL |
| 16 |
Troy Brown |
NE |
| 17 |
Nate Burleson |
MIN |
| 18 |
Dominic Rhodes |
IND |
| 19 |
Freddie Jones |
ARI |
| 20 |
Josh Reed |
BUF |
|
James was a solid first round pick. Faulk was a back the Gut Check
was glad didn't fall to him round two, due to the injury issues
and upside of Steven Jackson. Nonetheless, Faulk was his usual self
when he returned from injury. If neither player returns to their
superstar form for a full season, D.W.W.A. is going to be out of
luck. Steve McNair in round three is a pick the Gut Check likes,
although he hoped for the co-MVP to drop to late round four or the
top of round five. Steve Smith, Jerry Porter, and Rod Smith make
a decent corps of receivers with some upside (Porter), and Charlie
Garner is great insurance in round seven. Plummer and Galloway were
once again excellent value. DeShaun Foster in the twelfth not only
gives him trade bait, but a possible starter down the stretch. The
Gut Check likes this draft a lot, because D.W.W.A made smart value
picks throughout the process and did a good job handcuffing at least
one his starting backs with a clear-cut number two (Rhodes). This
is a typical, D.W.W.A. team: it looks a bit shaky based on all the
preseason talk but will likely be a division winner when it's all
said and done. If Faulk and James return to form, this team could
make a championship appearance.
| Ligtenmiller |
| Rd |
Player |
Team |
| 1 |
Daunte Culpepper |
MIN |
| 2 |
Rudi Johnson |
CIN |
| 3 |
Anquan Bolden |
ARI |
| 4 |
Tiki Barber |
NYG |
| 5 |
Matt Hasselbeck |
SEA |
| 6 |
Amani Toomer |
NYG |
| 7 |
Randy McMichael |
MIA |
| 8 |
Muhsin Muhammad |
CAR |
| 9 |
Ike Hilliard |
NYG |
| 10 |
Tyrone Wheatley |
OAK |
| 11 |
Terry Glenn |
DAL |
| 12 |
Miami Dolphins |
|
| 13 |
Bubba Franks |
GB |
| 14 |
Jake Delhomme |
CAR |
| 15 |
Troy Hambrick |
OAK |
| 16 |
Josh Brown |
SEA |
| 17 |
Troy Edwards |
JAC |
| 18 |
Atlanta Falcons |
|
| 19 |
Artose Pinner |
DET |
| 20 |
Morten Andersen |
KC |
|
Our defending champion started his sophomore slump this weekend.
Culpepper is a terrific pick. Rudi Johnson was a solid second rounder,
but Ligtenmiller clearly thought
Bolden was out for two weeks rather than the 8-12 that was later
confirmed after the surgery. Other than Matt Hasselbeck in the fifth
round, the rest of the former champ's picks were on the pedestrian
side. None of his wide receivers come from strong passing offenses
and many of them are the second option. It looks like this owner's
belief that Bolden was returning in two weeks really threw him off.
Tyrone Wheatley in round ten could be a good value, if he lives
up to Norv Turner's expectations. If this happens, this roster could
have enough to get into the post season. Otherwise, Culpepper may
turn into trade bait to land more depth. The Gut Check believes
this is the most likely scenario if The Champ can't land a waiver
wire gem before mid-season.
| Skelly |
| Rd |
Player |
Team |
| 1 |
Corey Dillon |
NE |
| 2 |
Torry Holt |
STL |
| 3 |
Laveranues Coles |
WAS |
| 4 |
Kevin Jones ® |
DET |
| 5 |
T.J. Duckett |
ATL |
| 6 |
Marc Bulger |
STL |
| 7 |
Marty Booker |
CHI |
| 8 |
Justin McCareins |
NYJ |
| 9 |
Peter Warrick |
CIN |
| 10 |
Dennis Northcutt |
CLE |
| 11 |
Marcus Pollard |
IND |
| 12 |
Josh McCown |
ARI |
| 13 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
|
| 14 |
Adam Vinatieri |
NE |
| 15 |
James Thrash |
WAS |
| 16 |
Jay Feely |
ATL |
| 17 |
Itula Mili |
SEA |
| 18 |
Justin Fargas |
OAK |
| 19 |
Kevin Faulk |
NE |
| 20 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
|
Skelly turned out to be the owner
chanting, "Fresh Fish, Fresh Fish, …" The Gut Check is very high
on Corey Dillon and to follow this up with Holt and Coles is pretty
good. The only move the Gut Check questioned early was choosing
Holt over Harrison. That may turn out to be splitting hairs once
the season ends. Kevin Jones is probably the best rookie back in
terms of talent and situation combined. The Lion should be a solid,
second RB in his starting lineup. Bulger, Booker, McCareins, and
Warrick are all solid mid-round picks. This is a competitive starting
lineup. The depth is the issue. Josh McCown is a gamble at this
point and James Thrash is not a good bet to contribute unless there's
an injury-which is possibly a decent handcuff for the Coles selection.
Justin Fargas is a good sleeper pick-a talented back that could
take over for Wheatley as the season progresses. On paper this looks
like a .500 roster that could go either way the running backs go.
The Gut Check believes this team may surprise.
| Sweet River |
| Rd |
Player |
Team |
| 1 |
Fred Taylor |
JAC |
| 2 |
Randy Moss |
MIN |
| 3 |
Tom Brady |
NE |
| 4 |
Brian Westbrook |
PHI |
| 5 |
Duce Staley |
PIT |
| 6 |
Reggie Wayne |
IND |
| 7 |
Donald Driver |
GB |
| 8 |
Ashley Lelie |
DEN |
| 9 |
Willis McGahee |
BUF |
| 10 |
Travis Taylor |
BAL |
| 11 |
David Akers |
PHI |
| 12 |
Bobby Shaw |
BUF |
| 13 |
Ben Watson |
NE |
| 14 |
Antwaan Randle El |
PIT |
| 15 |
Musa Smith |
BAL |
| 16 |
Kansas City |
|
| 17 |
Kyle Boller |
BAL |
| 18 |
Anthony Thomas |
CHI |
| 19 |
Desmond Clark |
CHI |
| 20 |
Jerome Pathon |
NO |
|
Sweet River had his typical draft.
Taylor and Moss are exciting players capable keeping him in every
contest. Tom Brady is a great quarterback, but not necessarily a
great fantasy quarterback. This is the type of reach that River
generally makes each year-a player that will probably play like
a third round pick, but could have been had in rounds 5-8. Westbrook
backed up by Staley at least on this roster-although no longer on
one in the NFL-is a good move. Wayne, Driver, and Lelie are all
receivers capable of good weeks but none are clear-cut, go-to guys.
This is the weakness of Sweet River's squad. This means Moss, Taylor,
and Westbrook will have to carry this organization and The Gut Check
isn't sure that can happen. This team will win its share of games,
but the Gut Check thinks he'll ultimately come up short if Lelie
and Westbrook don't break out.
The Gut Check's Predicted Playoff teams:
Venus, The Gut Check, Cuji, Bentley, Raptor, and D.W.W.A.
The Gut Check learned quite a bit from this process. Never one to
use a piece of draft day software in previous year, you can add
The Gut Check to the converted. Mike MacGregor's Compiler
and Draft Buddy are must haves. Although The Gut Check will
likely re-create his own Access Database in the off-season, he'll
be able to import his projections into the Compiler, which will
automatically create a cheat sheet with tiers and eliminate a ton
of work. The Draft Buddy made The Gut Check's draft simple and he
directly credits it with helping him stay on top of the action so
he could analyze his data within a two minute time frame per pick
and compile a roster that should be highly competitive. Yours Truly
was also able to minimize his fixation on sleepers with the help
of ADP data that he updated on the ADP tab of the Draft Buddy with
recent mocks. Although he would have preferred a later draft day,
The Gut Check felt like his picks matched his preparation and the
results should follow.
Next week, The Gut Check unveils his Preseason All-Gut Check Offense
and after that, the All-Gut Check Defense. |
