10/26/04
As we all know Hindsight is 20/20. This weekly column is devoted
to learning from common mistakes and serves as FFToday's "Fantasy
Football Confessional."
It's time to look at the NFL in Hindsight now that we're reaching
the halfway point of the season.
The WR class of 2003 is as good as advertised.
Take a look at the first round picks thus far.
Current Stats |
Player |
Rec |
Yds |
Avg |
Lng |
TD |
M. Clayton |
37 |
505 |
13.6 |
51 |
2 |
L. Fitzgerald |
26 |
371 |
14.3 |
39 |
2 |
Roy Williams |
24 |
362 |
15.1 |
37 |
5 |
L. Evans |
10 |
248 |
24.8 |
65 |
1 |
Reg. Williams |
12 |
115 |
9.6 |
19 |
0 |
R. Woods |
2 |
35 |
17.5 |
18 |
1 |
M. Jenkins |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Projected Stats |
Player |
Rec |
Yds |
Avg |
Lng |
TD |
M. Clayton |
85 |
1154 |
13.6 |
51 |
5 |
L. Fitzgerald |
69 |
989 |
14.3 |
39 |
5 |
Roy Williams |
64 |
965 |
15.1 |
37 |
13 |
L. Evans |
27 |
661 |
24.8 |
65 |
3 |
Reg. Williams |
27 |
263 |
9.6 |
19 |
0 |
R. Woods |
5 |
93 |
17.5 |
18 |
3 |
M. Jenkins |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
With a strong finish it's very possible for the class of 2003 to
produce three, 1,000-yard receivers. When was the last time this
happened? Since 1950 it's never happened.
Keep in mind that Keary Colbert is a productive starter and on track
for over 50 catches, 800 yards, and five touchdowns. Darrius Watts
and Ernest Wilford are making solid contributions in three wide
receiver sets for the Broncos and Jaguars respectively. Throw in
talent the likes of Bernard Berrian, Devard Darling, and Derrick
Hamilton that haven't seen much of the field in their rookie years
and there is a lot to like about this class.
What do Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones, and
Mewelde Moore have in common? All three ran slower 40-times
than NFL management desire from an RB. All three were pretty much
their respective college teams' offense (apologies to J.P. Losman).
And all three players slipped in the draft. The coaches of all three
players have experience as either an offensive coordinator (Martz),
offensive position coach (Mariucci), or experience as an offensive
player (Tice). The result? Jackson, Jones and Moore are using their
multi-dimensional offensive talents to benefit their teams. Come
to think of it, Michael Clayton, Larry Fitzgerald, and Roy Williams
have head coaches that fit this profile.
What do Chris Perry and Julius Jones have
in common? Both ran 40-times NFL management desire from an
RB. Both players were taken higher than expected in the draft. Neither
is making an impact for their team and is initially seen as a disappointment
to their respective head coach. Speaking of coaches, Parcells and
Lewis have defensive coaching backgrounds. Come to think of it,
Lee Evans, Reggie Williams, and Michael Jenkins have head coaches
with defensive backgrounds.
What do Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich,
and Tom Brady have in common? Poise. This quality is the
major factor that gives a quarterback "It." The coaches
of three players have defensive backgroundsCowher, Del Rio,
and Belicheck. Coincidence? May bemay be not.
Terrell Owens may have won the battle,
but Jeff Garcia won the war. As a fan of football players,
I like Owens and Garcia. Both work hard year long to be the best.
The Browns and the Eagles are better teams with these guys on
board. Arguably, Owens and Garcia's performances were about evenalthough
Garcia's required more guts and leadership given the way the game
turned out. Owens won the game. But to a man, their actions made
the result of the football game less significant in perspective.
Owens bashed Garcia both professionally and personally in the
media throughout the off-season and even a week before the game
in a local media outlet. Garcia took the higher road. Leading
up to the game, Owens appeared noticeably preoccupied and frustrated
with the media following up on his earlier statements.
What did he expect? Owens always defends his behaviors by saying
that he's not one of those players involved in well-publicized
issues with drug addiction, domestic violence, rape, or vehicular
homicide. What's so special about him obeying the law? Isn't
being a law-abiding citizen something we're all expected to do?
He may not realize it, but he's getting exactly what he asked
from the media. He's a great player and when one of the best receivers
in the game implies to the media that a pro bowl-quality quarterback
is homosexual, that's newsworthy. What it implies about Jeff Garcia
isn't as newsworthy as the sheer level of disrespect that Owens
shows to a player that undoubtedly helped him become an elite
receiver.
But it is funny that Owens is talking about Garcia's sexuality
when he seems to fit the very stereotypes that a homophobe would
ignorantly and inaccurately attribute to homosexuals:
- Owens makes his residence a short drive to metro-Atlanta,
well known as one of the more homosexual-friendly cities in
country.
- Owens went out of his way to portray himself as a deeply complex,
sensitive man in a broadcasted network profile. A story that
profiled his strange and close relationship with his over-protective
grandmother growing up.
- Owens is one of the most flamboyant players in the NFL. What
other player gets his coach to agree on a performance-based
incentive so he can wear form-fitting tights to practice instead
of shorts?
- What other player in the league has created more drama on
the field after a touchdown?
- The Dallas Star?
- The pom-pom routine
- The Sharpie
- His demanding behavior during his last season as a 49er
and his refusal to join the Ravens was more akin to a Broadway
prima donna than an NFL football player.
So it was fairly telling when Terrell Owens had to go out of his
way after a touchdown to rip down a banner that stated "Takes
One to Know One." To incur a penalty and risk himself or his
team getting hit by projectiles (for which Browns fans are now famous
for doing) just to take down a banner makes me wonder if what it
said struck a nerve. They say homophobic people are uncomfortable
with their sexuality. Owens better be careful about how he chooses
to call others out in the media. Does his friend that told him "if
it looks like a rat," know the saying about the pot and the
kettle? Maybe Donovan McNabb will help Owens learn how to avoid
situations like this one. McNabb certainly knows a thing or two
about being stereotyped in the media and handling it with classmuch
like what Owens did to Garcia.
On to the weekly files of 20/20 Hindsight...
Priest Holmes would score 4 rushing touchdowns
on the NFL's top rushing defense?
Over 42% of Holmes' games between 2000-2004 produced elite level
fantasy totalsat least 19.4 fantasy points. Only Marshall
Faulk has a higher percentage of elite level fantasy games with
45%.
Lessons Learned: If means if
you needed stats to tell you the obviousespecially after
the Ravens-Chiefs MNF match up this monththen now you know
you never bench Holmes if he's healthy.
Derrick Blaylock would score 4 rushing
touchdowns on the NFL's top rushing defense?
We can certainly predict with a decent amount of accuracy
that Priest Holmes will be a good fantasy starter every week,
but we can't predict his touchdown total, his health status, AND
the Chiefs' defensive play. These are the three factors that put
him on the bench. I'm sure there's someone
out there that started Blaylock last week in a league somewhereI
certainly should have in one league where my only healthy starting
RB was Brian Westbrookbut you'll never convince me anyone
played Blaylock out of anything but desperation. Considering I
could start one running back instead of two, I didn't have to
make this move. Just from the hindsight of luck, I wish I did40
points from Blaylock and winning by 42 going into Monday night
is much better than 3 or 4 points from Ernest Wilford and only
being up by 2 when your opponent still has Al Wilson and Brian
Simmons and you have Reggie Hayward.
Lesson Learned: Luck is what
makes Fantasy Football what it is...
Avoided Steve McNair this week.
The forum poster that goes by the name "Clash of The Titans,"
frequently shares information from an anonymous source in the
Tennessee organization. He's been making it known that McNair
has been in worse health than the Titans have let on and states
some interesting points about his throwing motion as evidence.
If you saw the hit Kevin Williams dished out on McNair, you know
it wasn't nearly as vicious as the countless hits the Tennessee
quarterback has taken throughout his entire career, but it knocked
him out of the game. Bad sign. Too bad, I was going to make my
move in the FFTOC this week. I decided to hold off on Leftwich
until the Minnesota game in week 12 and that left me with Vinny
Testaverde, Kurt Warner, Jeff Garcia, and McNair as my week 7
options. The Minnesota defense made McNair the most appealing
to me. If I went with any of the other options, I could have been
inline for a good week. But I chose McNair and got zero points
for a position that should net me at least 15-20. Now, I need
excellent weeks for the month of November to qualify for the post
season.
Lesson Learned: Trust your
sources. Especially when what they say makes sense.
For those of you that made the right decisions this week, congratulations.
For those of you that didn't: Hindsight's a
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