What can we say about Week 8? It was one of those crazy weeks where
your players either killed it or were completely absent. It seemed
like there was very little in between the two extremes. The winning
entry in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker tournament was higher
than the optimal lineup in any other week this season. Hopefully
you were the one that did well and did not run into your opponent
doing just a little better. There was plenty of “one upping”
going on from my experience.
As we move on to Week 9 we see that there are six teams on bye.
As mentioned when this occurred
in Week 4, the bye weeks have little to no effect on your weekly
roster strategy. Some ownership percentages will be higher just
because there are fewer options so be aware of that for your contrarian
tournament plays.
Here is what the odds makers think of the other 26 teams this
week.
Las Vegas scoring lines for Week 9:
- New Orleans (26) at Carolina (23)
- San Diego (21.75) at Miami (23.25)
- Jacksonville (16.25) at Cincinnati (27.25)
- Tampa Bay (18.5) at Cleveland (25)
- Washington (23.5) at Minnesota (21)
- Philadelphia (25.5) at Houston (23.5)
- NY Jets (15.75) at Kansas City (25.75)
- Arizona (22) at Dallas (26)
- St. Louis (16.75) at San Francisco (26.75)
- Denver (26) at New England (29)
- Oakland (14) at Seattle (29)
- Baltimore (24) at Pittsburgh (24)
- Indianapolis (27.25) at NY Giants (23.75)
Bye: Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Tennessee
Salaries: (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Tom Brady averages 23.8 FPts against Denver.
Quarterbacks Tom Brady
(9,000/8,400) – Brady performed well for us last week but
this play is more than riding the hot hand. He has performed well
versus Denver in the past and should be involved in a shootout
this week.
Colin Kaepernick (7,800/7,000) – Coming off a bye, Kaepernick
is at home against St. Louis. The Rams defense is giving up top
ten production to the quarterback position and Kaepernick is a
dual threat to score.
Brian Hoyer (6,200/5,300) – If you are looking in the bargain
barrel this week, consider Hoyer against Tampa Bay. His stat line
this year has never exceeded 300 yards and Cleveland is a run
first team so temper expectations. This is a value play against
a poor defense so you have money to get another stud in your lineup
elsewhere.
Running Backs
Andre
Ellington (7,700/5,900) – Ellington continues to be the workhorse
head coach Bruce Arians promised us he would be. Since the bye
week, Ellington is averaging over 25 touches per week. With Stepfan
Taylor out (calf), there is one less vulture in the Arizona backfield.
LeSean
McCoy (7,800/5,200) – McCoy’s value at DraftKings is better
than at Fanduel, but his production should pay off his salary
in both spots. With center Jason Kelce poised to play Sunday and
fellow back Darren Sproles still nursing an MCL sprain, McCoy
is in a good spot.
Shane Vereen (6,600/4,600) – Vereen’s usage was down
last week due to game flow and possibly some lingering sickness.
This week’s close, high scoring game figures to play out
better for his usage.
Jerick McKinnon (6,300/4,700) – McKinnon was highly owned
last week and did not produce like many had hoped. His price went
up a bit at Fanduel but came down at DraftKings. With the volume
of touches he has seen and expects to see, McKinnon is still a
value play. I expect his ownership percentages to be lower this
week as well.
Wide Recievers
Mike Wallace (7,200/5,200) – Wallace has expressed
his frustration with the offense following his 5-target 2-catch
performance last week. Look for him to get back on track at home
versus the San Diego defense who has given up 7 TD passes over
the last three weeks.
Rueben
Randle (6,400/5,400) – Coming off a bye, Randle gets to face
an Indianapolis team that was torched by Ben Roethlisberger in
Week 8. Randle is sixth in the NFL in red zone targets and has
been averaging over 9 targets in the last five games.
Michael Floyd (6,500/3,800) – After last week’s goose
egg, Floyd’s price is down 1100 at DraftKings and the same
at Fanduel. The combination of his upside potential, his lower
price and how he soured many people means he is one of the best
values this week.
Wes Welker (6,300/3,600) – Welker has moved from an every
week play to a boom-or-bust option. If you are looking for a tournament
play, consider Welker playing against his old team.
Tight Ends
Julius Thomas (7,800/5,600) – Thomas now has two
weeks in a row with fewer than 30 yards and no touchdowns. Look
for him to get back on track in the shootout in New England.
Travis Kelce (5,400/4,100) – The only thing still holding
Kelce back is head coach Andy Reid. Kelce is still only seeing
about 60% of snaps, which limits his upside. Kelce leads tight
ends in yards after the catch and YAC per reception. He faces
the Jets defense that is top 5 best for opposing tight ends.
Defenses
Seattle (5,500/3,300)
Cincinnati (5,600/3,300)
Cleveland (4,800/2,900)
Good luck this week!
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