Congratulations! You have made it past the Getting
Started stage of DFS and now you are looking for some insight
on how to set your lineup. It is a good thing that you did not skip
this article as there is more to it than just plugging in some players
that fit under the salary cap and watching the games to see how
you did. Well, you can do that and you might even win a few times,
but long-term variance can catch up to you, so you should employ
more strategy to your squad. As a matter of fact, I would argue
there is more skill in putting together a daily fantasy lineup than
setting your seasonal league lineup. If you do not follow that line
of thinking, here is my quick answer to that. For your season league,
you have a finite number of guys to choose from based on the roster
you drafted. You are restricted to use those players no matter the
match-up, the weather conditions, their injury status or any other
factors that have an effect on their performance. In daily fantasy,
the combinations of roster set-ups to choose from are nearly limitless
with your only major obstacle being the salary cap. That said, let’s
look at how to scale down some of those combinations and help you
build a winning team.
First of all, you need to look at what type of contest you are
playing and the pay scale to figure out how to proceed. Your lineup
for a heads-up match or a 50/50 should not be comprised of the
same players as your lineup in large tournament or guaranteed
prize pool (GPP). Game theorists and algorithm models would support
this with details and formulas that would make your head spin.
Here you will find those concepts in an easier-to-read format.
Heads-up and 50/50 - these
contests, sometimes called cash games, are what profitable players
will use to help build their bankrolls. The average "in-the-money"
scores for these games are lower than those of the tournament.
For this reason, you want to go with the consistent, safe and
high-floor type players in your lineup. This is not to say you
do not want to find players with upside potential, but you want
the players that will still give you a solid base score while
minimizing your downside risk. Allocating your dollars to the
higher-salary position players while saving money at kicker and
defense is a safer play. Lineup balance is a good way to achieve
the consistent and safe type of lineup you are looking for. Just
remember, in a 50-person double-up, the person that comes in 25th
place gets the same as the person who comes in first place. Plan
accordingly.
Tournaments - Here is where
you will add more of the high-risk and high-reward type players
to your lineup than in the cash-games. Instead of the safe points,
you should look to the value players that have a higher ceiling
in more of a boom-or-bust strategy. With only a top percentage
of contestants getting in the money and the big payouts being
at the very top, you will need a higher score to cash and an elite
score to win it all. Tournaments are the place to pick contrarian
plays as well. By going against the popular players you can give
yourself a better chance of winning if those top players do not
perform. A concept that is more popular in MLB daily fantasy but
can be applied here as well is the concept of stacking. This is
where you put more of your eggs in one basket, so to speak. The
week that Peyton Manning connected with Eric Decker for four touchdowns
in one game last season is a good example of how this can work
well in your tournament lineup. An even better example, however,
is looking at the more contrarian-type play when Marvin Jones
caught four touchdowns from Andy Dalton earlier last year. Another
six times in 2013, a receiver or tight end caught three touchdowns
in a game. Having that right combination can really move you up
the leaderboard.
Of course, even with these tips, selecting players or the right
combination of players can be more of an art than a science. Keep
in mind such things as Las Vegas lines, expert picks and projections,
position ranking versus defenses, weather and even motivation
factors when selecting players. For example, the
2013 Arizona Cardinals were horrific against the tight end
position. Depending on the opponent from week to week, you could
make a good case for paying up for a top-tier tight end or finding
a good value spot for a lower-tier player. As for knowing what
the mainstream play versus the contrarian play is, there is no
definite way to pinpoint that. You can pay attention to the expert
projections, the talking heads on the sports networks and the
buzz around the player to gauge how popular the pick will be for
the week.
A good way to get a better feel of the game is to take a look
at what won a particular contest the day or week before. Pay particular
attention to the allocation of salary per position and players
at each position. See what combinations were used in the top 10
lineups. Compare how the players’ final results relate to
the projections, and try to figure out the factors that led to
the big score. If you still do not know who to pick, be sure to
stay tuned here throughout the season for tips, ideas and suggestions
on players or theories to target each week as you find that winning
lineup. Good luck and have fun!
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