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Jayson Werra | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer


Setting Your Daily Fantasy Lineup
8/6/14


Congratulations! You have made it past the Getting Started stage of DFS and now you are looking for some insight on how to set your lineup. It is a good thing that you did not skip this article as there is more to it than just plugging in some players that fit under the salary cap and watching the games to see how you did. Well, you can do that and you might even win a few times, but long-term variance can catch up to you, so you should employ more strategy to your squad. As a matter of fact, I would argue there is more skill in putting together a daily fantasy lineup than setting your seasonal league lineup. If you do not follow that line of thinking, here is my quick answer to that. For your season league, you have a finite number of guys to choose from based on the roster you drafted. You are restricted to use those players no matter the match-up, the weather conditions, their injury status or any other factors that have an effect on their performance. In daily fantasy, the combinations of roster set-ups to choose from are nearly limitless with your only major obstacle being the salary cap. That said, let’s look at how to scale down some of those combinations and help you build a winning team.

First of all, you need to look at what type of contest you are playing and the pay scale to figure out how to proceed. Your lineup for a heads-up match or a 50/50 should not be comprised of the same players as your lineup in large tournament or guaranteed prize pool (GPP). Game theorists and algorithm models would support this with details and formulas that would make your head spin. Here you will find those concepts in an easier-to-read format.

Heads-up and 50/50 - these contests, sometimes called cash games, are what profitable players will use to help build their bankrolls. The average "in-the-money" scores for these games are lower than those of the tournament. For this reason, you want to go with the consistent, safe and high-floor type players in your lineup. This is not to say you do not want to find players with upside potential, but you want the players that will still give you a solid base score while minimizing your downside risk. Allocating your dollars to the higher-salary position players while saving money at kicker and defense is a safer play. Lineup balance is a good way to achieve the consistent and safe type of lineup you are looking for. Just remember, in a 50-person double-up, the person that comes in 25th place gets the same as the person who comes in first place. Plan accordingly.

Tournaments - Here is where you will add more of the high-risk and high-reward type players to your lineup than in the cash-games. Instead of the safe points, you should look to the value players that have a higher ceiling in more of a boom-or-bust strategy. With only a top percentage of contestants getting in the money and the big payouts being at the very top, you will need a higher score to cash and an elite score to win it all. Tournaments are the place to pick contrarian plays as well. By going against the popular players you can give yourself a better chance of winning if those top players do not perform. A concept that is more popular in MLB daily fantasy but can be applied here as well is the concept of stacking. This is where you put more of your eggs in one basket, so to speak. The week that Peyton Manning connected with Eric Decker for four touchdowns in one game last season is a good example of how this can work well in your tournament lineup. An even better example, however, is looking at the more contrarian-type play when Marvin Jones caught four touchdowns from Andy Dalton earlier last year. Another six times in 2013, a receiver or tight end caught three touchdowns in a game. Having that right combination can really move you up the leaderboard.

Of course, even with these tips, selecting players or the right combination of players can be more of an art than a science. Keep in mind such things as Las Vegas lines, expert picks and projections, position ranking versus defenses, weather and even motivation factors when selecting players. For example, the 2013 Arizona Cardinals were horrific against the tight end position. Depending on the opponent from week to week, you could make a good case for paying up for a top-tier tight end or finding a good value spot for a lower-tier player. As for knowing what the mainstream play versus the contrarian play is, there is no definite way to pinpoint that. You can pay attention to the expert projections, the talking heads on the sports networks and the buzz around the player to gauge how popular the pick will be for the week.

A good way to get a better feel of the game is to take a look at what won a particular contest the day or week before. Pay particular attention to the allocation of salary per position and players at each position. See what combinations were used in the top 10 lineups. Compare how the players’ final results relate to the projections, and try to figure out the factors that led to the big score. If you still do not know who to pick, be sure to stay tuned here throughout the season for tips, ideas and suggestions on players or theories to target each week as you find that winning lineup. Good luck and have fun!