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Training Camp Battles: TEs
8/22/05

The feedback on last season's "tcb" series was positive and welcome. Drafting the loser of a camp battle will make you one of the first to dip into free agency by squandering that valuable draft pick. Making the right choice solidifies your lineup. Discussing camp battles rarely elicits the interest of debating stud running backs like Priest Holmes versus Shaun Alexander, but it can be the secret to a well-rounded and deep roster. In more competitive leagues, it's often the little things that win championships.

This season we'll again break down camp battles by position starting with tight ends, moving along to quarterbacks and finishing up with wide receivers and running backs. The TE segment, while less interesting to many, may provide crucial information for those of you in leagues starting a mandatory TE. If your league does so (as I believe it should), the following food for thought should be helpful.

Before digging into specific battles, an unexpected trend across the NFL bares discussion. For the last decade shrewd fantasy owners have understood the "stud early or wait strategy" for their TEs. There's been one to three players in the top tier with a huge dropoff in projected production for the remaining TEs. The idea was either to take one of the top players in the 3rd through 5th rounds, or if you missed out, build the rest of your roster while waiting for the "TE pick of the litter" in a late round. Historical stats have proven the strategy's effectiveness, and fantasy owners have fallen into a "habit" with this approach. With the ongoing dominant career of Tony Gonzalez and the emergence of Antonio Gates, this season seems little different from many others.

For awhile in the mid 90s, the two studs in tier one were Shannon Sharpe and Ben Coates. I'm sure many of you remember those days. In one draft, they both slipped to the end of the fifth round, where I was drafting on the corner, and on a stroke of whimsy grabbed them both. In my mind I had just monopolized the position-- effectively taking it away from the rest of the league. It was as if, in comparison, I had an extra player starting every week. Had Wesley Walls not emerged that season, I would have been exactly right, and for what it's worth, I won a title with the strategy.

So, am I suggesting my whimsical gamble for this season? Should you consider both Gonzo and Gates to monopolize the position? For several reasons the answer is absolutely not. First, I was very lucky. Second, their respective average draft positions (ADPs) are both in the early fourth round making the idea impossible or suicidal. Finally, and what bares discussion before addressing camp battles is the aforementioned trend. The year I took the top two TEs, the rest of the league was in the doldrums at the position with the exception of Walls. This year the rest of the league is packed with potential. A minimum of important camp battles in terms of projected performance, and a near glut of talent solidified at the position, may bring an end to the effectiveness of the "stud early or wait" strategy.

While the following list is out of context for an article discussing camp battles, it's appropriate for any discussion of fantasy TEs this season. The numbers in parentheses represent player's ADPs coming into your drafts. So, with Gonzalez hampered by a bothersome foot, and Gates way behind from his holdout, let's quickly look at this trend of potential talent removed from camp battles.

Jason Witten (5.11)-- He caught 87 balls for almost 1000 yards and 6 tds last season. The focus of his team's passing attack, he could easily break into the top tier and possibly emerge as the #1 TE in the league. Once Gonzo and Gates are gone, taking Witten around his ADP is of little risk.

Alge Crumpler (6.8)-- Alge is the primary beneficiary of Michael Vick's scrambling ability, and the Falcon's unfortunate inability to find a go to wide receiver. He missed the final two games of last season finishing with 6tds and almost 800 yards receiving. If he slides below his ADP, you may regret not having him on your team.

Jeremy Shockey (6.11)-- Sure-handed, big, fast, tough, studious, hard working, determined and controversial, Shockey has the talent and opportunity to live up to his hyped potential. Eli Manning should be vastly improved, and Jeremy has much to prove. I'm holding on to him in a keeper league.

Todd Heap (7.2)-- Perhaps more all around talent than any of the three players listed above, Heap also reaps the benefit of an offense and quarterback struggling to consistently find wide receivers. When injury free he has as much upside as anyone, but he's been slowed down recently with ankle and shoulder problems.

Dallas Clark (8.4)-- The focus of a camp battle with Marcus Pollard a year ago, he now sits atop the Colts' TE position in the league's most prolific passing attack. In past years a player like this may have slipped under the radar and been available to those who waited, but his 8th round ADP suggests that won't be possible.

Randy McMicheal (8.8)-- McMicheal's career has been hampered by both injury and off-field problems, but he's emerged as a team leader and Dolphin insiders are predicting a great season. His ADP also suggests his potential isn't going unnoticed.

LJ Smith (10.1)-- A year ago Donovan McNabb was talking about LJ breaking into the top tier of TEs . While that kind of talk is expected from a QB, the results never emerged as Smith shared the position with Chad Lewis. Smith later revealed he was playing most of the season with a serious back injury. He's healed from off-season surgery, and Chad Lewis has retired. Maybe McNabb spoke a year too soon. LJ's ADP is finally getting us into those later rounds. He is possibly the best value on this list.

In season's past my advice would be to forgo drafting the players listed above, with a firm belief that you could find a gem later of near equal value. I would have suggested adding RB depth or building a stronger WR core, and looking later for a TE that would end up hard to differentiate from those chosen after the top tier studs and before round 10. This season, and with the exception of keeping a watchful eye on Todd Heap's health, I wouldn't let any of these second and third tier TEs slip much beyond their ADPs. At TE in fantasy football this season, poker's going up.

Nevertheless, and with respect to those who know they can support the position with a late round pick or two, let's get back in the context of camp battles and look for some sleepers and late round value.

Camp Battles:

San Diego Chargers
Antonio Gates (4.2) vs. Chargers Front Office vs. Justin Peelle

The most talked about camp battle at tight end this preseason hasn't been about competition for a starting job. It's been about contract negotiations between one of football's top tight ends, Antonio Gates, and San Diego's front office. The disputed financial arrangements between team and player are a major reason why this article wasn't ready for publication a few days ago. If bad came to worse for Gates, I was prepared to share a terrific late round (or free agency) sleeper from San Diego, Justin Peelle. Gates' enormous success last season is not only due to his tremendous athletic ability, but also due to a system designed for getting the ball to the tight end. Peelle would not have produced anything comparable to Gates, but it wouldn't have been surprising to see the 4th year player prove more than worthy of a spot on your roster.

The good news is after receiving an ultimatum, missing a deadline, and being penalized with a three game suspension; a disgruntled Gates is risking his future on a $380k tender for the season and getting himself into camp. The suspension only includes the regular season opener (and the final two pre-season games). There's even a possibility the Chargers will ask the league to waive the suspension. That loud sigh of relief you heard was from early drafters who took Gates as high or even higher than Gonzalez. I hope he has a great season and is rewarded accordingly next season. The interesting tidbit for fantasy fans is to keep an eye on Peelle should Gates go down to injury or attitude problems. Gates is gambling his future on his performance this season. It should be fun to watch. And, I wanted to get Peelle on your radars should things go south for Gates in San Diego.

Minnesota Vikings
Jermaine Wiggins (10.4) vs. Jim Kleinsasser (17.7)

Some readers may be surprised that Wiggins wasn't mentioned above-- above the actual camp battles themselves. Last season he played safety valve and check off for Daunte Culpepper, and he played well. Consistently finding the open seam and displaying great hands, Wiggins caught 71 passes, proving the late TE theory while making his owners happy. On average he is the 10th TE drafted by fantasy owners this season, placing him almost even with LJ Smith's ADP. Many are expecting even bigger things from Jermaine this season. However, he comes with a caveat worth considering.

Last season Wiggins entered the starting lineup after Jim Kleinsasser's season ending ACL tear in the opener. Kleinsasser's rehabilitation is a reported success, and more worrisome to Wiggins fans should be the anemic performance of the Vikings' offensive line. Daunte Culpepper was sacked an unacceptable 46 times on his way to one of the most memorable seasons in fantasy history. Training camp has provided a constant stream of concern for the Vikings' 0-line. The Vikings consider Kleinsasser the best blocking TE in the game. Not only is he necessary for protecting Culpepper, he gives the running game a needed boost, and has a sure set of hands himself.

Wiggins has earned his playing time, but other factors suggest he's going to have to share with Kleinsasser. Wiggins is overvalued at 10.4. Kleinsasser is a sleeper to consider should you wait late in your draft or want a 2nd TE on your roster from a powerful offense.

Tennessee Titans
Erron Kinney (16.6) vs. Ben Troupe (13.11)

The Titans boast two TEs being picked up near the end of fantasy drafts. The same situation was true last year, when we suggested here that Kinney was the better option based on his higher ADP. This year Troupe has moved three rounds ahead of Kinney, but the situation is the same. A foot injury has kept Troupe out of action, and Kinney has signed a contract with the Titans through the 08 season. Highly acclaimed new offensive coordinator, Norm Chow, reportedly has a special package of plays designed to exploit Troupe's superior athleticism. Still it's hard to recommend a TE who's #2 on the depth chart going into the season. A year ago Kinney missed seven games while catching only 25 passes while displaying a good nose for the endzone by scoring 3 tds. Confused? Yeah, this has all the makings of TE by committee with little chance of either TE separating from the other. In that case, like last year, Kinney becomes the more valuable choice based on his later availability. Eventually the more talented Troupe is expected to take over. That's the same Ben Troupe who struggled with an easier playbook a year ago. I think I'll stay away from this one and revisit the situation next year.

Denver Broncos
Jeb Putzier (12.3) vs. Stephen Alexander (17.7)

A year ago at this time Byron Chamberlain and Jed Weaver were appearing in ADPs, so HC Mike Shanahan cut them both and announced Jeb Putzier as the starter. Who knows what he has in mind this season, but the 12th round selection of Putzier seems to be a wasted draft pick. Journeyman Stephen Alexander has been named the starter, and owners with Putzier already on their rosters will soon be looking to fill the void. Denver has a legacy of stellar production from the TE position, but Alexander's talent isn't comparable to Shannon Sharpe's. Nevertheless, with the league-wide cloudiness at this point for TEs, perhaps Alexander is the first decent late round value. If he stays healthy and continues to hold off Putzier, his availability late in drafts combined with Denver's use of the TE position give us a player who should clearly outperform his ADP. Putzier fans take note of the demotion and make new arrangements. If you like the way this is playing out sort of under the radar, Alexander will be available very late in your draft-- and a possible steal.

New England Patriots
Daniel Graham (13.12) vs. Ben Watson (14.7)

Two years ago Daniel Graham was praised for his physical skill, speed, and ability to run after the catch. He was also criticized for his work ethic and blocking. Last year he was praised for his blocking and work ethic, and continued to impress with his athletic ability-- scoring seven tds for the world champs. Looming behind him on the depth chart is fellow first round draft choice, Ben Watson. Obvious from their respective ADPs, fantasy fans are split between the two. No team spreads the ball around more than the Patriots, and this situation has all the hallmarks of a committee approach. Both players are talented. Either could emerge. Their numbers will likely end up uninspiring and similar. A great situation for the Pats is a guessing game for fantasy owners. I'm more comfortable with Graham, the proven commodity, but once again an unclear camp battle leaves us unsure of the better choice. They're both being drafted with regularity, and I can only wish you luck should a Patriot TE be in your future.

Seattle Seahawks
Jeremy Stevens (15.2) vs Itula Mili

Speaking of revisiting a situation, this one has hardly changed with the long off-season. It's possible Jeremy Stevens is the greatest TE in the history of training camp. Unfortunately, he has yet to prove anything when it counts. Once again glowing reports of his playmaking ability are coming out of Seattle's camp, and once again veteran Itula Mili is battling for playing time. Stevens says he's "worked a little harder" this offseason and "tried to hang around the QBs a little bit more." Will this finally be his breakthrough year? I'm skeptical, but sooner or later he's going to be a decent fantasy option, or we're going to start wondering if the "great training camp reports" are some sort of bizarre strategy to throw off opposing coaches. I wouldn't want to start the season with Jeremy as my primary TE, but he's worth picking up very late, just in case. More importantly, Itula Mili won back the starting position late last season and remains atop the depth chart with little value to fantasy owners.

Carolina Panthers
Kris Mangum versus Mike Seidmen

Panther coaches love Mike Seidman and refer to him as "the total package." It was expected that he would emerge the clear winner of this camp battle, and TE aficionados thought they had a quiet sleeper in Carolina. As camp closes, veteran Kris Mangum remains #1 on the depth chart, but some of us aren't buying it. In this weekend's pre-season game against the Giants both TEs played with the first team, but it was Seidman targeted four times, catching three and scoring a TD. Mangum was used for run blocking and not targeted once in the passing game. Seidman rates as high on my charts as any of the "ADP'd" players mentioned in the "battles" section of this article. He's a true sleeper generally going completely ignored in fantasy drafts. Carolina is a balanced team primed for a run at the NFC championship, with a quarterback known to spread the ball around. Of course, I'd be gushing about this undrafted gem if he was penciled in atop the depth chart, but he isn't. Not yet. If you go in another direction at TE, as most will, keep a close eye on Seidman on your waiver wire. If the Panther coaches are right and he's "the total package," he could be a top ten TE-- a poor man's Jason Witten.

Are you beginning to see why I'm promoting the top TEs this season in an article about camp battles? Those golden nuggets some of us have confidently waited for in years' past look like a mixed bag of fool's gold.

Around The League:

Don't interpret this section as a series of afterthoughts. Some of these TEs may fall into high value positions in your coming draft. Some of them have little competition in camp, but they still deserve mention considering the discussion above.

Eric Johnson of the San Francisco 49ers has an ADP of 10.4 putting him in the category of Wiggins and LJ Smith. His only camp battle is with his health. A nagging foot injury is limiting him this preseason, but the 49ers' returning leading receiver provides a value selection after the 10th round. Johnson could have been mentioned above with LJ Smith. The uncertainty at QB, and the prospect of another dismal season for the team, downgrade his projections some from last year's numbers, but as they say, someone has to catch the ball there. He's a solid choice to be the guy.

Bubba Franks (12.7) remains unsigned and the only viable TE on the Packers' roster. The two sides don't seem too far apart, and his ADP suggests fantasy fans are only slightly worried. You could do much worse for yourself in the 12th round, and QB Brett Favre has been vocal about the team's need to take care of Bubba.

Marcus Pollard (12.10) moved from Indianapolis to Detroit where he's the clear starter on a team loaded with talent at the skill positions. Considering HC Steve Mariucci's West Coast offense, and quarterback Joey Harrington's struggles, a talented veteran TE like Pollard may just be what the fantasy doctor ordered. At the end of the 12th round Pollard is a decent addition to your roster, but don't be surprised if the young wide receivers get most of the action.

Steeler rookie Heath Miller (13.1) provides second year QB Ben Roethlisberger with the big target he was missing a year ago. HC Bill Cowher says Miller has had a "perfect" camp. There's every indication that the rookie will be the featured TE in the Steelers unimpressive passing game. Possibly, he'll make it more impressive. With goal line defenses stacked against the Steelers' power running game, it's not hard to imagine Miller getting plenty of looks in the play action game around the goal line. Considering the steep learning curve at TE, and the probability of Miller sharing duties with veterans Rasby and Tuman, it's hard to be excited about the rookie's first year, but the talent seems to be there.

Chris Cooley (13.5) scored six TDs a year ago, and fantasy owners think they've found a possible sleeper in the 13th round. Last year Cooley was working desperately to earn a roster spot while learning four different offensive positions. He later emerged as QB Patrick Ramsey's favorite option in the redzone, and things should come easier this year. He's worked on speed and quickness; he's the entrenched starter; and he's no longer burdened with learning a complicated system. He's a safe value selection in the 13th round with little risk and respectable upside. This is the type of situation I've looked for in the past.

A year ago Boo Williams (13.9) was highly touted in fantasy drafts and went on to disappoint his owners on a regular basis. Before pulling up lame with a strained hamstring in camp, he found himself embroiled in a camp battle with journeyman Ernie Conwell. Conwell may be better suited to the Saints' new emphasis on the running game, and Boo isn't a player I recommend with any confidence. Some reports have him falling to #4 on the Saints depth chart. It's unlikely that he'll return to form, but if he does the late 13th round ADP becomes a bargain. I'd look elsewhere and let another owner take the risk.

Doug Jolley (13.9) has been getting fantasy attention as the new option in Chad Pennington's stable. He grew frustrated with a lack of attention in Oakland a year ago and is happy to be an integral part of the Jets' two TE attack. The second TE in New York, Chris Baker, is going undrafted and may prove to be the better all around performer. Maybe Jolley will emerge and support his late 13th round pick, but there seems to be better choices considering the two TE committee approach in NY.

In Oakland HC Norv Turner ended any talk of a camp battle by announcing Courtney Anderson as the starter. Not surprisingly, once promising Teyo Johnson has had a fine camp and looks to share opportunities with Anderson. Considering the wealth of other options in the Raider offense, it's hard to imagine many balls headed for TEs, but Anderson has the look of a steady veteran in just his second year. He's worth keeping an eye on in free agency and could be a serviceable bye week replacement.

Tampa Bay rookie Alex Smith has been unable to unseat veteran Anthony Becht as the starter in Tampa, but he could come on later in the season as he becomes more comfortable in blocking assignments.

In Houston, the Texans were set with the plan of using Billy Miller in passing situations and Mark Bruener for run blocking. Both have missed significant time with injuries and a possible sleeper has emerged. His name is Matt Murphy. At 6-5 and 270 his ability to get deep and make plays has been impressing Houston coaches. I wouldn't rush out and draft him. There's every possibility the fantasy production will once again be Miller's, but Murphy is a name to log and watch carefully early in the season.

Summary:

I'll pass on the remaining half dozen teams and add this summary. In this four part series a year ago, I was satisfied with the information provided for QBs, RBs, and WRs. I look forward to digging into them once again. But at TE I should have been better. I was too low on Witten, too high on LJ Smith, completely missed the upheaval in Denver, made a couple nice calls, but in the end just didn't provide enough information. The interesting trend of potential producers in rounds 5-10 has changed that. I personally prefer the players at the top and bottom of that first list. Witten, if you can grab him should be gold in Dallas. LJ Smith in the 10th round provides you with the potential to out produce many of the quality TEs chosen in earlier rounds. As explained in the beginning, I've never shied away from taking the very top TEs early in a draft, and both Gonzo and Gates are tremendous assets to a fantasy lineup. They come with caveats and may be joined by others in that top tier this season. The ultimate decision is yours. I hope this information is useful, and you avoid some of the big mistakes currently being made according to ADPs. Finally, I'll stand by the sleeper prediction-- Mike Seidman.

Next up: Quarterbacks.