8/22/05
The feedback on last season's
"tcb" series was positive and welcome. Drafting the
loser of a camp battle will make you one of the first to dip into
free agency by squandering that valuable draft pick. Making the
right choice solidifies your lineup. Discussing camp battles rarely
elicits the interest of debating stud running backs like Priest
Holmes versus Shaun Alexander, but it can be the secret to a well-rounded
and deep roster. In more competitive leagues, it's often the little
things that win championships.
This season we'll again break down camp battles by position starting
with tight ends, moving along to quarterbacks and finishing up
with wide receivers and running backs. The TE segment, while less
interesting to many, may provide crucial information for those
of you in leagues starting a mandatory TE. If your league does
so (as I believe it should), the following food for thought should
be helpful.
Before digging into specific battles, an unexpected trend across
the NFL bares discussion. For the last decade shrewd fantasy owners
have understood the "stud early or wait strategy" for
their TEs. There's been one to three players in the top tier with
a huge dropoff in projected production for the remaining TEs.
The idea was either to take one of the top players in the 3rd
through 5th rounds, or if you missed out, build the rest of your
roster while waiting for the "TE pick of the litter"
in a late round. Historical stats have proven the strategy's effectiveness,
and fantasy owners have fallen into a "habit" with this
approach. With the ongoing dominant career of Tony Gonzalez and
the emergence of Antonio Gates, this season seems little different
from many others.
For awhile in the mid 90s, the two studs in tier one were Shannon
Sharpe and Ben Coates. I'm sure many of you remember those days.
In one draft, they both slipped to the end of the fifth round,
where I was drafting on the corner, and on a stroke of whimsy
grabbed them both. In my mind I had just monopolized the position--
effectively taking it away from the rest of the league. It was
as if, in comparison, I had an extra player starting every week.
Had Wesley Walls not emerged that season, I would have been exactly
right, and for what it's worth, I won a title with the strategy.
So, am I suggesting my whimsical gamble for this season? Should
you consider both Gonzo and Gates to monopolize the position?
For several reasons the answer is absolutely not. First, I was
very lucky. Second, their respective average draft positions (ADPs)
are both in the early fourth round making the idea impossible
or suicidal. Finally, and what bares discussion before addressing
camp battles is the aforementioned trend. The year I took the
top two TEs, the rest of the league was in the doldrums at the
position with the exception of Walls. This year the rest of the
league is packed with potential. A minimum of important camp battles
in terms of projected performance, and a near glut of talent solidified
at the position, may bring an end to the effectiveness of the
"stud early or wait" strategy.
While the following list is out of context for an article discussing
camp battles, it's appropriate for any discussion of fantasy TEs
this season. The numbers in parentheses represent player's ADPs
coming into your drafts. So, with Gonzalez hampered by a bothersome
foot, and Gates way behind from his holdout, let's quickly look
at this trend of potential talent removed from camp battles.
Jason Witten (5.11)-- He caught
87 balls for almost 1000 yards and 6 tds last season. The focus
of his team's passing attack, he could easily break into the top
tier and possibly emerge as the #1 TE in the league. Once Gonzo
and Gates are gone, taking Witten around his ADP is of little
risk.
Alge Crumpler (6.8)-- Alge is the
primary beneficiary of Michael Vick's scrambling ability, and
the Falcon's unfortunate inability to find a go to wide receiver.
He missed the final two games of last season finishing with 6tds
and almost 800 yards receiving. If he slides below his ADP, you
may regret not having him on your team.
Jeremy Shockey (6.11)-- Sure-handed,
big, fast, tough, studious, hard working, determined and controversial,
Shockey has the talent and opportunity to live up to his hyped
potential. Eli Manning should be vastly improved, and Jeremy has
much to prove. I'm holding on to him in a keeper league.
Todd Heap (7.2)-- Perhaps more
all around talent than any of the three players listed above,
Heap also reaps the benefit of an offense and quarterback struggling
to consistently find wide receivers. When injury free he has as
much upside as anyone, but he's been slowed down recently with
ankle and shoulder problems.
Dallas Clark (8.4)-- The focus
of a camp battle with Marcus Pollard a year ago, he now sits atop
the Colts' TE position in the league's most prolific passing attack.
In past years a player like this may have slipped under the radar
and been available to those who waited, but his 8th round ADP
suggests that won't be possible.
Randy McMicheal (8.8)-- McMicheal's
career has been hampered by both injury and off-field problems,
but he's emerged as a team leader and Dolphin insiders are predicting
a great season. His ADP also suggests his potential isn't going
unnoticed.
LJ Smith (10.1)-- A year ago Donovan
McNabb was talking about LJ breaking into the top tier of TEs
. While that kind of talk is expected from a QB, the results never
emerged as Smith shared the position with Chad Lewis. Smith later
revealed he was playing most of the season with a serious back
injury. He's healed from off-season surgery, and Chad Lewis has
retired. Maybe McNabb spoke a year too soon. LJ's ADP is finally
getting us into those later rounds. He is possibly the best value
on this list.
In season's past my advice would be to forgo drafting the players
listed above, with a firm belief that you could find a gem later
of near equal value. I would have suggested adding RB depth or
building a stronger WR core, and looking later for a TE that would
end up hard to differentiate from those chosen after the top tier
studs and before round 10. This season, and with the exception
of keeping a watchful eye on Todd Heap's health, I wouldn't let
any of these second and third tier TEs slip much beyond their
ADPs. At TE in fantasy football this season, poker's going up.
Nevertheless, and with respect to those who know they can support
the position with a late round pick or two, let's get back in
the context of camp battles and look for some sleepers and late
round value.
San Diego Chargers
Antonio Gates (4.2) vs. Chargers Front
Office vs. Justin Peelle
The most talked about camp battle at tight end this preseason
hasn't been about competition for a starting job. It's been about
contract negotiations between one of football's top tight ends,
Antonio Gates, and San Diego's front office. The disputed financial
arrangements between team and player are a major reason why this
article wasn't ready for publication a few days ago. If bad came
to worse for Gates, I was prepared to share a terrific late round
(or free agency) sleeper from San Diego, Justin Peelle. Gates'
enormous success last season is not only due to his tremendous
athletic ability, but also due to a system designed for getting
the ball to the tight end. Peelle would not have produced anything
comparable to Gates, but it wouldn't have been surprising to see
the 4th year player prove more than worthy of a spot on your roster.
The good news is after receiving an ultimatum, missing a deadline,
and being penalized with a three game suspension; a disgruntled
Gates is risking his future on a $380k tender for the season and
getting himself into camp. The suspension only includes the regular
season opener (and the final two pre-season games). There's even
a possibility the Chargers will ask the league to waive the suspension.
That loud sigh of relief you heard was from early drafters who
took Gates as high or even higher than Gonzalez. I hope he has
a great season and is rewarded accordingly next season. The interesting
tidbit for fantasy fans is to keep an eye on Peelle should Gates
go down to injury or attitude problems. Gates is gambling his
future on his performance this season. It should be fun to watch.
And, I wanted to get Peelle on your radars should things go south
for Gates in San Diego.
Minnesota Vikings
Jermaine Wiggins (10.4) vs. Jim Kleinsasser
(17.7)
Some readers may be surprised that Wiggins wasn't mentioned above--
above the actual camp battles themselves. Last season he played
safety valve and check off for Daunte Culpepper, and he played
well. Consistently finding the open seam and displaying great
hands, Wiggins caught 71 passes, proving the late TE theory while
making his owners happy. On average he is the 10th TE drafted
by fantasy owners this season, placing him almost even with LJ
Smith's ADP. Many are expecting even bigger things from Jermaine
this season. However, he comes with a caveat worth considering.
Last season Wiggins entered the starting lineup after Jim Kleinsasser's
season ending ACL tear in the opener. Kleinsasser's rehabilitation
is a reported success, and more worrisome to Wiggins fans should
be the anemic performance of the Vikings' offensive line. Daunte
Culpepper was sacked an unacceptable 46 times on his way to one
of the most memorable seasons in fantasy history. Training camp
has provided a constant stream of concern for the Vikings' 0-line.
The Vikings consider Kleinsasser the best blocking TE in the game.
Not only is he necessary for protecting Culpepper, he gives the
running game a needed boost, and has a sure set of hands himself.
Wiggins has earned his playing time, but other factors suggest
he's going to have to share with Kleinsasser. Wiggins is overvalued
at 10.4. Kleinsasser is a sleeper to consider should you wait
late in your draft or want a 2nd TE on your roster from a powerful
offense.
Tennessee Titans
Erron Kinney (16.6) vs. Ben Troupe
(13.11)
The Titans boast two TEs being picked up near the end of fantasy
drafts. The same situation was true last year, when we suggested
here that Kinney was the better option based on his higher ADP.
This year Troupe has moved three rounds ahead of Kinney, but the
situation is the same. A foot injury has kept Troupe out of action,
and Kinney has signed a contract with the Titans through the 08
season. Highly acclaimed new offensive coordinator, Norm Chow,
reportedly has a special package of plays designed to exploit
Troupe's superior athleticism. Still it's hard to recommend a
TE who's #2 on the depth chart going into the season. A year ago
Kinney missed seven games while catching only 25 passes while
displaying a good nose for the endzone by scoring 3 tds. Confused?
Yeah, this has all the makings of TE by committee with little
chance of either TE separating from the other. In that case, like
last year, Kinney becomes the more valuable choice based on his
later availability. Eventually the more talented Troupe is expected
to take over. That's the same Ben Troupe who struggled with an
easier playbook a year ago. I think I'll stay away from this one
and revisit the situation next year.
Denver Broncos
Jeb Putzier (12.3) vs. Stephen Alexander
(17.7)
A year ago at this time Byron Chamberlain and Jed Weaver were
appearing in ADPs, so HC Mike Shanahan cut them both and announced
Jeb Putzier as the starter. Who knows what he has in mind this
season, but the 12th round selection of Putzier seems to be a
wasted draft pick. Journeyman Stephen Alexander has been named
the starter, and owners with Putzier already on their rosters
will soon be looking to fill the void. Denver has a legacy of
stellar production from the TE position, but Alexander's talent
isn't comparable to Shannon Sharpe's. Nevertheless, with the league-wide
cloudiness at this point for TEs, perhaps Alexander is the first
decent late round value. If he stays healthy and continues to
hold off Putzier, his availability late in drafts combined with
Denver's use of the TE position give us a player who should clearly
outperform his ADP. Putzier fans take note of the demotion and
make new arrangements. If you like the way this is playing out
sort of under the radar, Alexander will be available very late
in your draft-- and a possible steal.
New England Patriots
Daniel Graham (13.12) vs. Ben Watson
(14.7)
Two years ago Daniel Graham was praised for his physical skill,
speed, and ability to run after the catch. He was also criticized
for his work ethic and blocking. Last year he was praised for
his blocking and work ethic, and continued to impress with his
athletic ability-- scoring seven tds for the world champs. Looming
behind him on the depth chart is fellow first round draft choice,
Ben Watson. Obvious from their respective ADPs, fantasy fans are
split between the two. No team spreads the ball around more than
the Patriots, and this situation has all the hallmarks of a committee
approach. Both players are talented. Either could emerge. Their
numbers will likely end up uninspiring and similar. A great situation
for the Pats is a guessing game for fantasy owners. I'm more comfortable
with Graham, the proven commodity, but once again an unclear camp
battle leaves us unsure of the better choice. They're both being
drafted with regularity, and I can only wish you luck should a
Patriot TE be in your future.
Seattle Seahawks
Jeremy Stevens (15.2) vs Itula Mili
Speaking of revisiting a situation, this one has hardly changed
with the long off-season. It's possible Jeremy Stevens is the
greatest TE in the history of training camp. Unfortunately, he
has yet to prove anything when it counts. Once again glowing reports
of his playmaking ability are coming out of Seattle's camp, and
once again veteran Itula Mili is battling for playing time. Stevens
says he's "worked a little harder" this offseason and
"tried to hang around the QBs a little bit more." Will
this finally be his breakthrough year? I'm skeptical, but sooner
or later he's going to be a decent fantasy option, or we're going
to start wondering if the "great training camp reports"
are some sort of bizarre strategy to throw off opposing coaches.
I wouldn't want to start the season with Jeremy as my primary
TE, but he's worth picking up very late, just in case. More importantly,
Itula Mili won back the starting position late last season and
remains atop the depth chart with little value to fantasy owners.
Carolina Panthers
Kris Mangum versus Mike Seidmen
Panther coaches love Mike Seidman and refer to him as "the
total package." It was expected that he would emerge the
clear winner of this camp battle, and TE aficionados thought they
had a quiet sleeper in Carolina. As camp closes, veteran Kris
Mangum remains #1 on the depth chart, but some of us aren't buying
it. In this weekend's pre-season game against the Giants both
TEs played with the first team, but it was Seidman targeted four
times, catching three and scoring a TD. Mangum was used for run
blocking and not targeted once in the passing game. Seidman rates
as high on my charts as any of the "ADP'd" players mentioned
in the "battles" section of this article. He's a true
sleeper generally going completely ignored in fantasy drafts.
Carolina is a balanced team primed for a run at the NFC championship,
with a quarterback known to spread the ball around. Of course,
I'd be gushing about this undrafted gem if he was penciled in
atop the depth chart, but he isn't. Not yet. If you go in another
direction at TE, as most will, keep a close eye on Seidman on
your waiver wire. If the Panther coaches are right and he's "the
total package," he could be a top ten TE-- a poor man's Jason
Witten.
Are you beginning to see why I'm promoting the top TEs this
season in an article about camp battles? Those golden nuggets
some of us have confidently waited for in years' past look like
a mixed bag of fool's gold.
Around The League:
Don't interpret this section as a series of afterthoughts. Some
of these TEs may fall into high value positions in your coming
draft. Some of them have little competition in camp, but they
still deserve mention considering the discussion above.
Eric Johnson of the San Francisco
49ers has an ADP of 10.4 putting him in the category of Wiggins
and LJ Smith. His only camp battle is with his health. A nagging
foot injury is limiting him this preseason, but the 49ers' returning
leading receiver provides a value selection after the 10th round.
Johnson could have been mentioned above with LJ Smith. The uncertainty
at QB, and the prospect of another dismal season for the team,
downgrade his projections some from last year's numbers, but as
they say, someone has to catch the ball there. He's a solid choice
to be the guy.
Bubba Franks (12.7) remains
unsigned and the only viable TE on the Packers' roster. The two
sides don't seem too far apart, and his ADP suggests fantasy fans
are only slightly worried. You could do much worse for yourself
in the 12th round, and QB Brett Favre has been vocal about the
team's need to take care of Bubba.
Marcus Pollard (12.10) moved
from Indianapolis to Detroit where he's the clear starter on a
team loaded with talent at the skill positions. Considering HC
Steve Mariucci's West Coast offense, and quarterback Joey Harrington's
struggles, a talented veteran TE like Pollard may just be what
the fantasy doctor ordered. At the end of the 12th round Pollard
is a decent addition to your roster, but don't be surprised if
the young wide receivers get most of the action.
Steeler rookie Heath Miller
(13.1) provides second year QB Ben Roethlisberger with the big
target he was missing a year ago. HC Bill Cowher says Miller has
had a "perfect" camp. There's every indication that
the rookie will be the featured TE in the Steelers unimpressive
passing game. Possibly, he'll make it more impressive. With goal
line defenses stacked against the Steelers' power running game,
it's not hard to imagine Miller getting plenty of looks in the
play action game around the goal line. Considering the steep learning
curve at TE, and the probability of Miller sharing duties with
veterans Rasby and Tuman, it's hard to be excited about the rookie's
first year, but the talent seems to be there.
Chris Cooley (13.5) scored
six TDs a year ago, and fantasy owners think they've found a possible
sleeper in the 13th round. Last year Cooley was working desperately
to earn a roster spot while learning four different offensive
positions. He later emerged as QB Patrick Ramsey's favorite option
in the redzone, and things should come easier this year. He's
worked on speed and quickness; he's the entrenched starter; and
he's no longer burdened with learning a complicated system. He's
a safe value selection in the 13th round with little risk and
respectable upside. This is the type of situation I've looked
for in the past.
A year ago Boo Williams (13.9)
was highly touted in fantasy drafts and went on to disappoint
his owners on a regular basis. Before pulling up lame with a strained
hamstring in camp, he found himself embroiled in a camp battle
with journeyman Ernie Conwell. Conwell may be better suited to
the Saints' new emphasis on the running game, and Boo isn't a
player I recommend with any confidence. Some reports have him
falling to #4 on the Saints depth chart. It's unlikely that he'll
return to form, but if he does the late 13th round ADP becomes
a bargain. I'd look elsewhere and let another owner take the risk.
Doug Jolley (13.9) has been
getting fantasy attention as the new option in Chad Pennington's
stable. He grew frustrated with a lack of attention in Oakland
a year ago and is happy to be an integral part of the Jets' two
TE attack. The second TE in New York, Chris Baker, is going undrafted
and may prove to be the better all around performer. Maybe Jolley
will emerge and support his late 13th round pick, but there seems
to be better choices considering the two TE committee approach
in NY.
In Oakland HC Norv Turner ended any talk of a camp battle by
announcing Courtney Anderson
as the starter. Not surprisingly, once promising Teyo Johnson
has had a fine camp and looks to share opportunities with Anderson.
Considering the wealth of other options in the Raider offense,
it's hard to imagine many balls headed for TEs, but Anderson has
the look of a steady veteran in just his second year. He's worth
keeping an eye on in free agency and could be a serviceable bye
week replacement.
Tampa Bay rookie Alex Smith
has been unable to unseat veteran Anthony Becht as the starter
in Tampa, but he could come on later in the season as he becomes
more comfortable in blocking assignments.
In Houston, the Texans were set with the plan of using Billy
Miller in passing situations and Mark Bruener for run blocking.
Both have missed significant time with injuries and a possible
sleeper has emerged. His name is Matt Murphy. At 6-5 and 270 his
ability to get deep and make plays has been impressing Houston
coaches. I wouldn't rush out and draft him. There's every possibility
the fantasy production will once again be Miller's, but Murphy
is a name to log and watch carefully early in the season.
Summary:
I'll pass on the remaining half dozen teams and add this summary.
In this four part series a year ago, I was satisfied with the
information provided for QBs, RBs, and WRs. I look forward to
digging into them once again. But at TE I should have been better.
I was too low on Witten, too high on LJ Smith, completely missed
the upheaval in Denver, made a couple nice calls, but in the end
just didn't provide enough information. The interesting trend
of potential producers in rounds 5-10 has changed that. I personally
prefer the players at the top and bottom of that first list. Witten,
if you can grab him should be gold in Dallas. LJ Smith in the
10th round provides you with the potential to out produce many
of the quality TEs chosen in earlier rounds. As explained in the
beginning, I've never shied away from taking the very top TEs
early in a draft, and both Gonzo and Gates are tremendous assets
to a fantasy lineup. They come with caveats and may be joined
by others in that top tier this season. The ultimate decision
is yours. I hope this information is useful, and you avoid some
of the big mistakes currently being made according to ADPs. Finally,
I'll stand by the sleeper prediction-- Mike Seidman.
Next up: Quarterbacks.
|