3/28/06
It's generally accepted that this is one of the most talented drafts
in the history of the NFL. 2004 brought us an excellent rookie class,
but this one is much deeper and could be as rich in elite talent.
We don't have a crop of quarterbacks to compete with 1983, but there's
intriguing potential available (to say the least). The wide receivers,
while unusually deep and hard to grade, are lacking in elite talent.
At every other position this draft is loaded. After a dozen or so
premiere players, there's nearly two full rounds of talent that
would typically have first round grades. This year's second rounders
will bring first round talent to your favorite team. Third rounders
grade like typical second rounders and so on. As always there will
be undrafted rookie gems found in free agency. This year more than
usual.
We'll provide you with complete analysis by position of this
rookie class, of course, with an emphasis on fantasy implications.
Generally that process would make little mention of the offensive
lineman. Not this year. This class of OLs will be key to the future
of several NFL teams. The indirect affect on fantasy performers
should be considered. It's pass protection that makes things possible
for QBs, WRs and TEs, and it's run blocking that makes those all
important RBs shine. Several quality skill position players struggled
because of poor OL play last season. This rookie class offers
an antidote to the struggles. Rookie offensive lineman sometimes
take a little time to develop, so the value may be slightly delayed,
but understanding it early can give you an edge in the future.
So, when it comes to this rookie class...
Let's get started in the trenches.
Centers
The story at center this post-season remains Nick
Mangold (Ohio State). He was head and shoulders above his
peers at the Senior Bowl, and he didn't disappoint at the Combine.
For most of the season he was rated second to Outland Trophy winner
Greg Eslinger (Minnesota). Mangold
wasn't the strongest center. He wasn't the fastest. He did run
the quickest shuttle, and that's important for interior lineman.
He is very explosive in short distances. He was fundamentally
superior in the drills. He is very possibly a first round draft
pick. Few players have made themselves more money since the season
ended than Mangold. He's the complete package.
Will Montgomery (Va Tech) and
Chris Chester (Oklahoma) have
been nice surprises. At 312 pounds Montgomery was the second heaviest
center. The heaviest (Ryan Cook) is being looked at as a tackle.
More on him later. Montgomery probably was going to be drafted
very late prior to the Combine. He's moved up a couple rounds.
He ran faster than Eslinger while outweighing him by 20 pounds.
He was far and away the strongest of the centers, and one of the
strongest overall. He showed great burst, did unexpectedly well
in the quickness drills, and was as athletic as all but Chester.
Montgomery has a ton of experience starting at both guard and
center for the Hokies the last three years. He has great intangibles
and combined with the measureables he's displayed, it looks like
he'll be very useful in the NFL.
Chester is a converted TE, so it shouldn't be too surprising
that he was the fastest in the group. What was surprising was
how much faster he was-- a full 3 tenths faster in the 40 than
Eslinger. There's a lot of enthusiasm surrounding Chester right
now. It should probably be curbed some. He has great tools, but
centers don't run 40 yards very often, and he is new to the position.
He's a project, and the outstanding measureables could cause a
team to reach for him early. I won't be surprised to see his name
on a card as early as the third round. The tools are there for
a very solid interior lineman. The inexperience makes me wonder
if measureables will be too influential with him.
Pat Ross (Boston College) and
Marvin Phillip (Cal) continue
to look like outstanding prospects. They should both be available
early the second day, and they're both the type of talents who
would easily have first day grades in a typical year. Mike
Degory (Florida) and Donovan
Raiola (Wisconsin) will find their places in the NFL too.
If it seems like I'm down on Eslinger, I'm not. He's a terrific
center with superior technique in all phases of the position.
He's a better prospect than all but Mangold. He's proved it on
the field of play. That's more important than bench pressing and
sprinting. He's still a lock for the third round, and he represents
terrific value. He's as NFL ready as any center.
I give this class of centers a B.
It's a little deeper and more talented than usual. When it comes
to these offensive lineman get used to higher grades.
Guards
This looks like a terrific group. Max
Jean-Gilles (Georgia) is the most popular of the bunch,
but I'm not sold that he's the best. Charles
Spencer (Pittsburgh) is the story here. Spencer started
at left tackle for the Panthers last season, and he played well.
Knowing tackles make bigger paychecks than guards, it must have
been disappointing for Spencer when word came from on high that
the NFL considered him a guard. It's working out nicely for him.
Rather than being somewhere near the bottom of the top 10 tackles,
Spencer may have proved himself the #1 guard. He's convinced me.
At 352 pounds only Jean-Gilles was bigger, and Spencer outran
all but two guards in attendance. He's a fierce competitor who
gives tremendous effort with every task. He turned heads with
his interior play at the Senior Bowl, and then was the most impressive
combination of size, speed and strength in Indianapolis. Like
Jean-Gilles, he'll be asked to drop a few pounds, but it doesn't
appear to be a big issue.
Max is no slouch either. He may need to work on the weight, but
the natural athleticism for a man his size is very impressive.
It doesn't show so much in the logged numbers, but in the way
he does things. He has a cat like quality in his initial burst,
showing the needed quickness to carry his weight (355) much better
than expected. He'll immediately upgrade a running game. Fantasy
enthusiasts should keep that in mind come draft day.
Davin Joseph (Oklahoma) is
not a giant mauler like the other two, but he's made a case for
being the top guard himself. He is the best overall athlete at
guard in this class, and combined with his long arms, he has several
scouts believing he could hold up at tackle in a pinch. His speed
makes him a great candidate for teams employing zone blocking
schemes.
The top notch talent doesn't let up after the first three. The
two guards from USC, Taitusi Lutui
and Fred Matua, along with Mark
Setterstrom (Minnesota), posted the best quickness numbers
of the highly rated guards. Setterstrom and Lutui have been highly
regarded all season, and Matua now has his name being mentioned
as high or higher than both. There was some controversy surrounding
Matua for declaring early in a year packed with quality lineman.
USC head coach Pete Carroll would have preferred Matua stay in
school, help the Trojans for another season, and get a bigger
pay day next year. Matua has been up to the challenge and a big
pay day is in the works anyway. Being a little less experienced,
a year younger, yet equally impressive as the seniors works to
Fred's advantage when scouts consider future development.
Rob Sims (Ohio State) pulled
his hamstring running the 40 and opted out of the workouts other
than pressing 225 27 times. He tried to get himself measured at
Ohio State's Pro Day, but the hamstring wasn't ready and he pulled
up lame again. Several teams are arranging for private workouts.
The unfortunate hamstring injury may have denied the press a real
story, but personnel execs are certainly aware of Sims' potential.
Before the hammy tightened up Sims covered 20 yards in a blistering
2.87. That number is significantly, almost ridiculously, faster
than any other guard. At the Shrine Game one personnel exec told
us that Sims could play left tackle in the NFL. Like Joseph he
is a prime candidate for a zone blocking team, and he may be the
most underrated lineman out there. He was nothing short of dominant
this past season. Purdue's athletic defensive end Ray Edwards
says Sims is the best player he's ever faced.
Jason Spitz (Louisville) rounds
out this impressive group of guards as perhaps the most versatile
player. He didn't produce the measureables of those discussed
above, but he was stellar in the drills. He is capable of switching
to center, and like Sims, he's proved it on the field for three
years and will likely do the same in the NFL for much longer.
With seven possibly elite talents followed by the versatile Spitz,
and a couple players discussed below with the tackles, this class
of interior lineman gets an A.
It's that good.
Tackles
Early last season this class of tackles was regarded as the best
in memory. It no longer gets such high praise, and I'm not sure
why. I sure believe it's the best in memory. I have little doubt
as a matter of fact.
D'Brickashaw Ferguson (Virginia)
is regarded as not only the cream of the crop, but also one of
the elite prospects at any position in the draft. I agree, but
he has company. D'Brick didn't work out at the Combine, but he
continued to impress in the interview process. His Pro Day on
March 21st was impressive. Many are discussing him in the same
breath as Jonathan Ogden, Orlando Pace and Walter Jones. He's
not the imposing presence of an Ogden or Pace, but the Jones comparison
seems valid. It's hard to find flaws in this guy, so I've given
up trying.
D'Brick's company is Winston Justice
(USC). He didn't run the 40 or hit the weightroom, but he did
show off in the other events and drills. What a speciman this
kid is. His vertical jump (35") was significantly superior
to anyone else's. Is that important? You bet. It's a great measure
of burst and leg power. He also excelled in the broad jump, the
shuttle and the cone drill. He moves like a 320 pound running
back, but he's more than just a freakish athlete. He's a solid
technician in pass protection with a highly developed punch. His
burst makes him potentially the most explosive run blocker in
this excellent class. Like D'Brick, it's hard to find flaws in
Justice. He was solid in the interviews, and the overhyped story
of his off the field problems should be considered a non-issue.
The media won't let it go, but I'm certain NFL execs have. I haven't
missed a USC game since Carson Palmer was a junior, and it's Justice's
body of work on the field that is most impressive. Some say he's
been inconsistent. I'd like to know when, because I must have
missed it. I have some difficulty ranking the tackles listed below,
and without any disrespect to Ferguson, I'm having difficulty
separating him from Justice. They are very similar. This isn't
the place for a long breakdown of the two top tackles, but in
my mind their potential is dead even. Justice is that good. I'm
comfortable giving him the unusually high praise.
The next three tackles remain very difficult to rank. Eric
Winston (Miami FL) was the athletic star of the group.
At 6-6 and 5/8ths and 310 pounds he posted the fastest 40 and
it wasn't close. He also ran the fastest shuttle. Only Justice
(easily) and Colledge (by 100th of a second) bested him in the
cone drill. Winston is a terrific athlete who has converted from
tight end. Many scouts graded him higher than Ferguson coming
into the season, but he was a little slow recovering from knee
surgery. As a sophomore he dominated. Last season the slow start
hurt his standing, but by season's end he was back to his stellar
play. He's made himself some money this post-season, and he's
going to make an NFL franchise better for years to come.
Jonathan Scott (Texas) didn't
post the impressive measureables of Winston and Justice, but he
continues to make a strong case for himself this post-season.
He excelled in all the drills displaying technique as refined
as any tackle entering the league. He's a humble kid, extremely
coachable, willing to play any position, with a great pedigree,
whose production on the nation's #1 rated offense speaks for itself.
His play at the Senior Bowl left draft guru Scott Wright wondering
if he wasn't the best tackle in attendance and Ferguson was there.
See the pattern? Ferguson looks like an elite talent, but several
others just aren't far behind him.
Enter Marcus McNeill (Auburn),
the most imposing physical speciman of them all. At nearly 6-8
and 340 pounds McNeill was the 3rd fastest of the 28 tackles in
competition. Amazing, really. Only Daryn Colledge and Winston
Justice posted better verticle jumps, which explains the explosive
quickness which made McNeill one of just five tackles to cover
20 yards in under three seconds. This performance hasn't been
given enough praise. Big Marcus stumbled in the cone drill and
posted a pedestrian time, but he rectified the notion that he
lacks lateral agility at his Pro Day. He hasn't given up a sack
in three years, and this is the beast who paved the way for Cadillac
Williams and Ronnie Brown a couple years ago. He is another solid
citizen, a student of the game, and you guessed it-- some scouts
were grading him higher than Ferguson a year ago.
I'm not going to bother ranking Winston, Scott and McNeill. I'd
rather just endorse them as being unfairly underrated by the usual
suspects playing guru in the media. It's fair to downgrade their
expected draft positions in this very deep draft. It's wrong to
be overly critical of their NFL prospects. They are excellent
football players.
I'm not close to being done praising the tackles though. This
gets better.
Andrew Whitworth (LSU) has
impressed and made probably the biggest move of any player on
the tackle chart. Whitworth says that up until the Combine he's
been 'undernoticed'. He's been noticed now, but what took so long?
The guy had a great career at LSU. He set a school record by playing
in 52 consecutive games, and dominating the opposition for two
straight years. The only practice he ever missed was the day he
graduated (early). In the words of LSU head coach Les Miles, "He’s
a great left tackle. And I don’t use that term, ‘great,’
very often." At 6-7 and a massive but lean 334 pounds, Whitworth
posted one of the top 40 times among all tackles. He had the second
best performance in the weightroom, and was solid as a rock in
every drill. He's another high character guy, a team leader. I
won't be at all surprised if three years from now, he proves to
be a better option than some of the excellent tackles discussed
above. Compared to the other tackles, there was something about
Whitworth that was... intimidating. He had presence the others
lacked.
While Whitworth has moved ahead of Daryn
Colledge (Boise State) and Ryan
O'Callaghan (Cal) as I see things, Colledge and O'Callaghan
have done nothing to disappoint. O'Callaghan is a prototype for
a big mauler at right tackle. He doesn't look like a prospect
for the left side, but neither did Flozell Adams early in his
career. There's a lot of similarity between those two, and Big
Ryan (344 pounds) could end up being just as good. Like Flozell,
O'Callaghan plays with a true nasty streak when run blocking,
and he hasn't given up a sack in two years. He's not as nimble
as the tackles mentioned above, but again like Flozell, he has
the versatility to play in the interior and be dominant. Some
think he's a little tall for guard duty, and I disagree. He plays
like a guard in run blocking and like a tackle in pass protection,
a right tackle. He can immediately upgrade any OL in the NFL,
even if initially used for depth on one of the league's better
lines.
Colledge is also being discussed as a potential guard, but for
different reasons. He's smaller, and he's fast. Only Winston and
Guy Whimper ran faster. He has an exceptionally powerful base
and plays with solid technique while having mastered cut blocks
and sealing the edge. His Senior Bowl performance can be summed
up by calling him D'Brick-lite. He accomplishes the same things
D'Brick accomplishes in the same situations. He stones the same
DEs. He makes the same plays run blocking. He's just not quite
as impressive. He is athletic enough to play LT with some polishing,
and like O'Callaghan he is an immediate upgrade to any line in
the league. Like some of the guards discussed above, he is a great
candidate for a zone blocking scheme, in his case, as a guard
or as a tackle, even a left tackle.
Jeremy Trueblood (Boston College)
and Guy Whimper (East Carolina)
round out my top ten tackles. Whimper's performance generated
a lot of praise from those overly impressed by measureables. He
is another converted TE who grew into a tackle's body. He was
a powerhouse in the weightroom, the second fastest runner, and
he showed exceptional quickness and athleticism. He's a raw project,
but he has the tools to be molded into a productive player. He
may cut his teeth at the guard position and find his true NFL
home on the interior.
Trueblood had a tough week at the Senior Bowl, but he recovered
nicely at the Combine. He's another fierce run blocker who dispelled
the notion that he wasn't athletic. He ran and jumped exceptionally
well for a 6-8 320 pound man. He's as tough as they come. It may
take him just a little longer to develop, but he is capable of
competing with any tackle in this article. Like Whitworth, I won't
be surprised if Trueblood ends being one of the top tackles in
this draft.
Just outside the top ten are yet more intriguing prospects. There's
a list of players too long to detail, but a few deserve comment.
Ryan Cook (New Mexico) didn't
post the best numbers, but he's as polished and versatile as any
lineman in the draft. He is exceptionally powerful and is praised
for his technique, hands, and footwork. He played center in college,
and can do so in the pros. He's been observed as a guard and a
tackle by NFL scouts. He excelled working out as a tackle at the
Senior Bowl, and like O'Callaghan he is prototypical for a big
mauler on the right side. His versatility provides instant depth
to an offensive line and gives him a little extra value on draft
day.
Jahri Evans (Bloomsburg), Paul
McQuistan (Weber State), and Rashad
Butler (Miami FL) have all displayed the athleticism to
find a home in the NFL. They should all be excellent second day
values this April. Finally, Kevin Boothe
(Cornell) has been the only disappointment, but perhaps expectations
were too high. He dominated small school competition, and still
looks like a solid project. I expect him to be very good in a
couple years.
What a deep class of tackles. They get an A+
from me. Rich in elite prospects and deep in potential NFL starters,
it is the best group to come along in recent memory. It's also
great news for the fans of teams with struggling offensive lines.
Help is on the way. They don't have the direct fantasy impact
of other positions, but the indirect impact down the line could
be substantial. I'll have a keen eye for which teams reap a harvest
from this crop on draft day. Their respective skill position players
will benefit.
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