FFT's Blog O' Fantasy Football

Owens is still a talented receiver, despite his advancing age, so predicting a bust year would be foolhardy. However, moving to cold weather Buffalo and going from Tony Romo and Dallas’ high octane offense to Trent Edwards and the Bills sleep inducing offensive philosophy certainly kills any chance Owens will hit the top ten in terms of fantasy production. Last year, Owens’ average points per game dropped from 15.0 to 10.3, his average yards per catch dropped from 16.7 to 15.2 and his TDs plummeted from 15 to 10. He managed to haul in less than 50% of his targets and 40% of his fantasy production came in three games. The signs of decline are obvious and the defensive secondaries in the AFC East are superior to those in the NFC West. And, of course, there is always a risk factor when it comes to the volatile Owens. All that being said, Owens should still top 1,000 yards but not by much and score 6-8 TDs. At this point, he’s a solid second receiver for fantasy purposes but he doesn’t have the upside some other second receivers have. ~ Dave

On pure talent alone, Owens is one of the most gifted players of his generation. Unfortunately that talent comes with a big helping of attitude and arrogance and Owens no longer consistently displays that talent. As Owens gets comfortable in Western New York, there is an increasing groundswell for a bust year in the fantasy community. The argument centers on Owens’ age (36), his quarterback and his propensity to drop balls. I’m not buying. Owens always brings it when he has something to prove, particularly in his first year with a team, and now that he’s relegated to a one-year deal in an NFL backwater, expect a vintage Owens season – 85 catches, 1,300 yards, 12 TDs, 4 memorable end zone celebrations and one first-class ticket out of town. While your fellow owners are concentrating on Owens’ bad attitude and age, snag him and get production just below what the big four receivers (Fitzgerald, Moss, Johnson and Johnson) figure to produce in 2009. ~ Andy

Marshall is clearly an enigma and fantasy loser in the Broncos decision to trade Jay Cutler for a package that included Kyle Orton. However, he is an extremely talented young receiver just coming into his own and has spent time this offseason training with Larry Fitzgerald. If even a little of Fitzgerald’s professionalism wears off on Marshall, the Broncos will be better for it. New coach Josh McDaniels’ offensive system focuses on the wide receiver position and Marshall figures to assume the Randy Moss role with Eddie Royal attempting to duplicate the efforts of Wes Welker. While Orton isn’t the risk taker Cutler is, he is a solid quarterback who has never had anything resembling the talent the Broncos have at receiver and his production was restricted by the Bears conservative offensive approach. Look for him to open it up more in Denver and for Marshall to land in the top ten. ~ Dave

If your fantasy pool awards points for potential or athleticism, then by all means Marshall is in the top 10. If you follow the usual practice of rewarding actual production, then it is time to bump Marshall down to the 12-15 or lower range. With Marshall already in coach McDaniels’ doghouse and Orton’s spaghetti arm replacing Cutler at quarterback, expect a significant drop off in the big receiver’s production. Marshall is also publicly demanding a trade, a distraction that could either detract from his on-field performance or result in a holdout or suspension. With a very deep pool of experienced wideouts available, take a look at Marques Colston, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe and Anquan Boldin ahead of Marshall. ~ Andy