The Chargers once again had a solid regular season in 2009, finishing 13-3, only to suffer another heart-wrenching defeat early in the playoffs. Despite having a playoff bye, they lost to the Jets 17-14 in their first playoff game, courtesy of two missed field goals by Nate Kaeding.
Head coach Norv Turner returns for his fourth season at the helm of the Chargers, and there has been significant movement on the roster during the offseason. Gone are LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Williams, Antonio Cromartie, and Brandon Manumaleuna.
On offense, the Chargers aired it out more regularly than in years past, finishing fifth in passing yards. With Tomlinson struggling behind an injury-plagued offensive line and Darren Sproles better suited for spot duty, Turner was forced to pass more. The result was quarterback Philip Rivers having a career year.
While the Chargers were clearly successful last year despite the heavy pass-run ratio, look for the team to have a more balanced attack in 2010 with rookie first round pick Ryan Mathews getting a healthy dose of carries in the running game.
As training camp approaches, there is concern the team will be without two stalwart performers in left tackle Marcus McNeill and wide receiver Vincent Jackson. Both players have refused to sign their restricted free agent tenders and have threatened to hold out until the tenth game of the season. If both players refuse to report, it will seriously jeopardize the Chargers’ ability to win a fifth consecutive AFC West division title.
QB Philip Rivers
Rivers has been fantasy gold over the last two seasons, topping 4,000 yards passing each year while tossing 62 touchdown passes. While Rivers is clearly not in decline at age 28, his fantasy prospects for 2010 aren’t as promising as his 2008 and 2009 success would suggest. The drafting of Ryan Mathews causes Rivers’ projected points to drop since the Chargers rushing attack figures to gain prominence this season. More worrisome is the status of Vincent Jackson. The Chargers top wide receiver has threatened to boycott the first ten games of the season unless he receives a lucrative long-term contract. Without Jackson, Rivers’ fantasy stats would take a serious hit, perhaps even dropping him to marginal starter status. Monitor Jackson’s contract situation and adjust Rivers’ fantasy ranking accordingly.
RB Ryan Mathews
Mathews lucks out in going to the high-powered Chargers offense. The rookie first round pick figures to get plenty of touches and touchdown opportunities in his first year with the team. Mathews will start on opening day, with Darren Sproles serving as the pass-catching, change-of-pace option. Look for Mathews to get 15-20 touches a game, including goal line work. At close to 220 pounds, Mathews has the stature to be a feature back, and with the Chargers expected to dominate the AFC West in 2010, he should see plenty of fourth quarter, closing-time work. It’s hard to imagine a better fantasy situation for a rookie rusher. Pencil him in as an RB1, but monitor how he is used in the preseason and how much work he gets as the season progresses. As with all rookie runners, there is a risk of him hitting the wall late in the season.
RB Darren Sproles
Sproles is coming off a career year in which he benefited from LaDanian Tomlinson’s injuries and declining level of play. He finished 2009 with 840 total yards and seven touchdowns. Unfortunately for Sproles, the Chargers traded up in the first round to take Ryan Mathews after jettisoning Tomlinson in the offseason. He will enter 2010 as a change-of-pace, pass-catching option. Sproles’ 2009 production is pretty much his upside, save for a few more yards. He is a must-have handcuff for Mathews owners and remains a useful flex play in leagues that employ the position.
WR Vincent Jackson
The good news with Jackson is that he has gotten better every year during his four-year career, finishing last season with career highs in yardage (1,167) and touchdowns (nine). The bad news is that he feels that he’s outplayed his contract status and is threatening to not report until Week 11 of the coming season. If healthy and motivated, he’s pretty much guaranteed production. Although he had a career year in 2009, it was somewhat marred by a four-game slump between weeks 10-13. Jackson will be suspended for three games due to his off-the-field troubles. Monitor his contract and suspension status in the preseason. If he’s in the lineup for 16 games, Jackson is clearly a low-end WR1 with upside for fantasy purposes.
WR Malcom Floyd
Floyd is going to be one of the most intriguing players in 2010 fantasy drafts. Not only did he show some solid ability after taking over for Chris Chambers as a starter partway through the 2009 season, but he may also benefit from Vincent Jackson’s absence. Jackson is in the midst of a contract dispute and has threatened to boycott the team until its eleventh game of the season. If that transpires, Floyd will move into the lead receiver role for the better part of 2010. He is a tall, physical receiver who has the ability to go up and get jump balls on deep passes, in addition to possessing better–than-average speed. He has solid upside playing in the Chargers potent passing game and could be a breakout candidate if Jackson stays away.
WR Legedu Naanee
Naanee started getting some opportunities in 2009 following the release of Chris Chambers. The Chargers love big receivers, and Naanee fits the mold at 6’2” and 220 pounds. Despite his size, Naanee isn’t an overly physical player and seems to be best suited to playing in the slot. However, if Vincent Jackson doesn’t resolve his contract issues, Naanee will compete for a starting spot with former Buffalo receiver Josh Reed. Give Naanee the leg up in that competition since Reed has been a slot receiver his entire career. Naanee is likely waiver wire material in most leagues if Jackson is back, but he could be a useful option if Jackson holds out.
TE Antonio Gates
After a subpar year in 2008, Gates bounced back last year to lead all tight ends in receiving yards. The Chargers offense figures to be dominant once again in 2010, and it’s worth noting that Gates finished 2009 with six touchdowns in the final six games of the season. Gates is clearly the best receiving tight end in the league, able to beat defenders with his agility and use his size to shield them from defending passes. Vincent Jackson’s potential absence only figures to increase Gates’ looks in the red zone. Look for Gates to reclaim the title of fantasy football’s premier tight end in 2010. Injuries have been a concern over the last few years and this offseason has been no different, with reports indicating that he is battling plantar fasciitis. Monitor that situation.
