QB Donovan McNabb While the quick thought is to write off the aging McNabb’s fantasy prospects for 2011 after a disastrous season last year in Washington, there is hope for a rebound this year in Minnesota. He was ill-suited for Mike Shanahan’s offense and is a better fit in Bill Musgrave’s version of the West Coast offense. With the team grooming rookie first-round pick Christian Ponder, McNabb will likely start in Week 1 and has a chance to hold on to the starter’s role as long as the Vikings remain in playoff contention. He will be 34 on opening day, and several quarterbacks have remained productive into their late thirties. In Minnesota, the wide receiver depth chart took a hit with the loss of Sidney Rice, but Percy Harvin may be ready to ascend to the No. 1 receiver role. There is also talent at tight end and in the running game. Add it all up and McNabb looks like a lower-tier QB2 with some risk that he may not be starting during the fantasy playoffs.
QB Christian Ponder With Brett Favre likely to stay retired this time, Tarvaris Jackson a free agent, and Joe Webb the only quarterback on the roster, the Vikings used their first-round pick to acquire Ponder, and it looked as though he would open the season as the starter. The Donovan McNabb trade all but ended that scenario. Nonetheless, the rookie walks into a great opportunity and could be starting by midseason if the Vikings struggle under McNabb. If that happens, however, Ponder will face many obstacles in 2011. Top wide receiver Sidney Rice left as a free agent, and Bernard Berrian is coming off a poor season and is likely to be released unless he accepts a salary reduction. Because of the league’s labor strife, Ponder was also robbed of valuable practice time. While he was productive in college at Florida State, he lacks a big arm and was injury-prone during his time there. But the Seminoles threw it plenty, and that works in Ponder’s favor. He is waiver wire material in redraft formats but is a mid-tier prospect in dynasty leagues.
QB Joe Webb Webb wasn’t horrible replacing Brett Favre in 2010, but with the lockout in place and free agency delayed, the Vikings were pushed into choosing Christian Ponder in the first round of the draft. And if that didn’t torpedo Webb’s short- and long-term prospects, as well as his fantasy value for the 2011 season, then the Donovan McNabb trade certainly did.
RB Adrian Peterson There is only one running back who has finished with a top-three fantasy ranking over the past four seasons, and that player is Adrian Peterson. While you could make the argument that there are better all-around backs in the league, there is little doubt that Peterson is the best pure runner in the NFL. In just four years, he has rushed for 5,785 yards and 52 touchdowns and caught 119 passes for another 1,170 yards and two more touchdowns. Let’s put it in perspective. Peterson averages 13.5 touchdowns per season, which would qualify as a career year for most running backs and is 3.5 more than Steven Jackson has scored over the last two years combined—and Jackson is regularly mentioned as a lower-tier RB1. Peterson’s is money in the bank and a near-certain bet to remain highly productive in 2011. The issue of having a new quarterback in the Vikings’ system drops AP down a notch, but he remains a lock to finish in the top five if he avoids the injury bug.
RB Toby Gerhart With the league’s top pure runner ahead of him, Gerhart stands little to no chance of carving out a meaningful role in Minnesota. To make things worse, Adrian Peterson is a more-than-capable short-yardage runner, and Gerhart isn’t a proven receiving threat. That limits his upside and makes him little more than a handcuff for 2011 and beyond, barring a catastrophic injury to Peterson. Therefore, the issue becomes whether Gerhart would produce if given an opportunity. While he looked tentative at times as a rookie, he was solid in his lone start in Week 15 against a stingy Bears defense, gaining a respectable 95 yards on 19 touches. There you have it—that’s all you need to know about Gerhart.
WR Percy Harvin Let’s be honest. As a football fan, it’s not hard to like Percy Harvin. He’s a jack-of-all-trades who is capable of making plays as a rusher, receiver, and returner. The problem is that as a fantasy owner, you need to remove your personal feelings for a player to determine his true value. The book on Harvin coming out of Florida as a first-round pick was that he was a bit of a malcontent who would get plenty of touches as a running back and as a receiver while also contributing in the return game. However, it hasn’t really materialized that way. His role as a kick returner takes him out of the base offense for a few snaps each game. And he has taken a handoff only 33 times in his first two years. With Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart around, don’t expect much to change in 2011. The big positive for Harvin is Sidney Rice’s decision to leave for Seattle, which makes Harvin the de facto No. 1 wide receiver in Minnesota. While his migraine issues could flare up at any time, the addition of Donovan McNabb at quarterback and Rice’s departure increase the likelihood of Harvin busting out in his third year in the league. He looks like a lower-tier WR2 with significant upside.
WR Bernard Berrian With Sidney Rice out with a hip injury, Berrian had a chance to re-join the starting lineup and give the Vikings a reason to pay him the $3.9-million salary he is due for the 2011 season. Yeah, that didn’t happen. The Vikings couldn’t have been impressed with his 28-reception, 247-yard, zero-touchdown season, and his fantasy owners certainly weren’t either. Barring a salary reduction, he won’t be back in Minnesota next season, and there’s a decent chance the Vikings won’t even bother re-signing him—he averaged a paltry 8.8 yards per reception last season and wasn’t much better in 2009 with 11.2 yards per catch. When your deep threat becomes a bigger threat to your team’s salary cap than to opposing defenders, you move on. You should too. Berrian is waiver wire material at best.
TE Visanthe Shiancoe Last year I told you that Shiancoe’s overreliance on touchdowns made him an inconsistent contributor at tight end and increased his risk factor. Sure enough, he caught just two touchdowns in 2010 after grabbing 11 in 2009 and eight in 2008. He dropped to 24th among tight ends, and with rookie second-round pick Kyle Rudolph on board, the odds of Shiancoe returning to his status as a fantasy starter are not great. The addition of McNabb does help his case a bit, however. Move him up to TE2 status if he relegates Rudolph to a clear backup status. Otherwise, you can do better.
TE Kyle Rudolph Rudolph was widely regarded as the premier tight end in this year’s rookie draft, and with Visanthe Shiancoe entering the final year of his contract, the Vikings grabbed Rudolph in the second round. Shiancoe has never been a feared receiver and is a poor fit for new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave’s West Coast offense. Nonetheless, Rudolph isn’t likely to beat out Shiancoe by Week 1, particularly since he hasn’t had an offseason to learn the team’s playbook. Keep an eye on him as potential bye-week filler off the waiver wire in redraft leagues, and consider him the top tight end prospect in dynasty league rookie drafts.
