FFT's Blog O' Fantasy Football

1. With the Dolphins in a freefall after their loss to the Bills last night and Reggie Bush a free agent at the end of the season, look for the Dolphins coaching staff to go with more of a committee approach at running back over the balance of the season. While Bush entered 2012 with a hot streak over his first two games after coming off a career year last season, opposing defenses have mostly contained him over the last eight games (he hasn’t topped 68 total yards since Week 2) and especially so over the Dolphins last three games, all losses. This week, Daniel Thomas, the team’s 2011 third round pick, carried the ball more than Bush (12 carries to 10) and it won’t be a surprise if he and rookie 4th round pick Lamar Miller, who is averaging a solid 5.4 yards per carry, assume a greater workload over the Dolphins remaining six games as the team tries to determine whether they need to re-sign Bush or add another running back in the draft. That doesn’t bode well for Bush’s fantasy prospects and his fantasy owners should be looking to add a replacement prior to league trading deadlines.

2. Another running back whose fantasy prospects are looking shaky over the balance of the season is the Giants’ Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw has struggled badly over the last four games, averaging just 57 rushing yards and failing to find the end zone. Foot and neck injuries are hindering his performance and he has lost the team’s short yardage role to Andre Brown, who has scored touchdowns in four consecutive games. With rookie 1st round pick David Wilson struggling (just three carries in his last two games), the team worked out several veteran running backs this week and that could be an indication that Bradshaw’s neck injury could cause him to miss time. Bradshaw owners might want to look for a replacement while Brown owners in flex leagues should feel comfortable using him as a flex option over the remainder of the season.

3. Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones is a wonderful talent but is beginning to earn the label of being injury prone with news this week that he will be a gametime decision on Sunday for Atlanta’s home game against Arizona. Jones suffered an ankle injury in the Falcons Week 10 loss to the Saints and was ineffective earlier this season in a Week 4 game against Carolina due to an injury. In addition, he missed three games and most of another during his rookie season in 2011 due to hamstring issues. While Jones has the talent to be a top 10 wide receiver and he was expected to be a top 10 fantasy wide receiver this season, it is beginning to look like Roddy White is the safer fantasy option of the two Atlanta receivers due to track record of remaining healthy (no missed games during his eight years in the league).

4. With a slew of injuries at the quarterback position in Week 10, there are likely a number of fantasy owners struggling to find starters at the position this week with the bye weeks not over until Week 12. The Steelers Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler of the Bears and Michael Vick of the Eagles are all likely to miss this week’s game and the 49ers Alex Smith will likely play but faces a tough matchup against a stout Bears defense. For those who need to grab a replacement from one of these teams, the options include Byron Leftwiich (against the Ravens), Jason Campbell (against the 49ers) and Nick Foles (against the Redskins). Given the matchups, the rookie Foles, taken in the 3rd round of this year’s draft, looks like the best option of the three. While he struggled somewhat in relief of Vick this past week against Cowboys, the Redskins represent a plum matchup due to their 30th ranked pass defense. In addition, Eagles head coach Andy Reid has never been known to change his offensive approach, which borders on “run only when necessary”. That should translate into plenty of targets and fantasy production for Foles.

5. With his 127 total yard performance this week against the 49ers, Rams running back Steven Jackson now has accumulated the 2nd most yards from scrimmage of any player in franchise history, moving past former Rams wide receiver Torry Holt. With a strong finish to the season, Jackson could overtake Isaac Bruce for the franchise record by season’s end.

Dwayne Bowe may take his show to another team in 2013.

6. Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe stated this week that he wanted to finish his career as a Chief. What remains to be seen is whether he is willing to finish his career as a Chief if it means signing a long-term contract extension at terms that are below his market value. The Chiefs and Bowe failed to reach a contract extension in 2011, forcing Kansas City to retain his services by placing the franchise tag on him. The reasoning may have been to ensure that his maturity is in check after a number of examples of immaturity during the early part of his career. However, he has performed admirably on a struggling team, taking that argument away from Chiefs management. Unfortunately for Bowe and Chiefs fans, general manager Scott Piolo has shown a tendency to be unwilling to sign players to a long-term extension unless they are on favorable terms. It certainly won’t be a surprise if Bowe is either back in Kansas City next season under the franchise tag or on the market looking for another team.

7. It’s official – James Starks is the man for the Green Bay Packers at running back, at least for now. Running backs coach Alex Van Pelt stated this week that Starks had earned the role but there are no guarantees that Starks will retain the starting position once veteran Cedric Benson returns to the team. Benson is eligible to come off the injured reserve list in Week 14, just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Starks has a chance to keep Benson on the bench with a string of solid performances but he has failed to remain healthy and productive during the first two and a half years of his career, making that prospect unlikely.

1. If there was ever any doubt that Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is no ordinary rookie, he proved it last night at the end of Indianapolis’ 27-10 dismantling of the Jaguars. With the game in hand in the 4th quarter, Luck rolled out and took off running before sliding and taking a hard shot from Jacksonville safety Dawan Landry, which drew a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty. With his teammates in a lather, Luck quickly hopped up and directed them back to the huddle before accepting Landry’s apology for the hit. If that wasn’t enough, he topped 20 fantasy points for the ninth time in ten games this season, throwing for a subpar 227 yards but rushing for two touchdowns, giving him five on the season. Despite lacking a proven threat opposite Reggie Wayne, injury issues at running back, a leaky offensive line and two rookies atop the depth chart at tight end, Luck is on pace to finish the season with just under 4,700 passing yards and 18 touchdown passes.

2. Sticking with the Colts, Wayne was expected to leave via free agency prior to the season but chose to stay in Indianapolis, a somewhat surprising decision especially considering the team’s struggles in 2011. However, he chose to stick around and is on pace for a career year in 2012. Coming off eight straight seasons with at least 70 receptions and 1,000 yard receiving seasons in seven of those years, Wayne is on pace to finish the season with career highs in receptions (123) and yards (1,655). Here’s to Wayne for not bailing on the Colts and being rewarded for staying to play for a rebuilding franchise that was expected to struggle with a rookie quarterback.

Redman's fantasy run may be coming to an end.

3. The Steelers backfield has been a fantasy mess this season as Rashard Mendenhall, Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer have all taken turns in the starting lineup. Dwyer looked like a solid bet to maintain the lead back role after consecutive 100-yard rushing efforts in Weeks 8 and 9. Then Redman had a career game in Week 10 with Dwyer out with an injury, gaining 147 yards and a touchdown on the ground. However, it appears that Mendenhall will take over in the starting lineup as soon as he is ready to play. Despite Mike Tomlin’s comments this week that the Steelers would go with the hot hand at running back, both Dwyer and Redman as well as the team’s running backs coach, Kirby Wilson, have stated at various times this season that the starting job is Mendenhall’s due to his superior speed, power and agility. Don’t overpay for Redman or Dwyer in the hopes that they can fill a hole at running back on your fantasy roster.

4. With the sale of the Cleveland Browns finalized, it appears that Pat Shurmur’s run as the team’s head coach will come to an end once the season is over. New owner Jimmy Haslam III is expected to change directions at head coach as he looks to put his stamp on the organization. While Shurmur has hardly been overly successful, the bottom line is that he has been severely handcuffed by a roster devoid of talent at the skill positions in 2011 and at wide receiver and along the offensive line in 2012. Barring a miracle turnaround by rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden and strong development at wide receiver from Greg Little and Josh Gordon, Shurmur will almost assuredly be looking for work in 2013.

5. Dynasty leaguers might want to take note of the performance of third year Redskins tight end Logan Paulsen, who has hauled in 13 of his 20 targets for 178 yards over the past three weeks. Incumbent starter Fred Davis was lost for the season due to a torn left Achilles’ tendon and he may not return to the team for the 2013 season. Davis received the franchise tag this past offseason as the team preferred locking him up under a one-year deal rather than securing his services with a long term contract extension. While Davis played reasonably well, his off the field issues could cause the team to once again shy away from offering him a long-term deal, especially if Paulsen continues to play well.

6. 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree is coming off perhaps the best game of his four-year career and could be in line for a strong finish to the season. In a Week 8 win over the Cardinals, Crabtree badly outplayed Arizona cornerback Patrick Peterson, catching all five of his targets for 72 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Crabtree regularly got separation from Peterson and also looked good running after the catch. With a Week 9 bye behind him, Crabtree faces a number of plum matchups over the next several weeks before facing a sturdy Seahawks pass defense in Week 16. Up next for the 49ers are the Rams (17th ranked pass defense), Bears (15th), Saints (28th), the Rams again, the Dolphins (29th) and Patriots (28th). While Crabtree has been up and down this season, his strong performance against Peterson coupled with a great schedule make him a must start over the next six weeks.

1. The Buccaneers placed starting left guard Carl Nicks on injured reserve this week, ending his season and robbing the team of their best offensive lineman. Signed during the offseason to shore up Tampa Bay’s offensive line, Nicks was once again playing at a Pro Bowl level before suffering a torn plantar plate in his left toe. With Nicks out, the team has now lost both of their starting guards with Davin Joseph also out for the season. Tampa Bay will turn to either converted right tackle Jeremy Trueblood or undersized interior lineman Ted Larsen to take Nicks’ place and both players represent a huge downgrade at the position. That doesn’t bode well for the fantasy prospects of rookie running back Doug Martin, who is coming off the best game of his young career, a 214 total yard, two-touchdown performance against the Vikings.

2. Despite playing well early in the season, Dolphins running back Lamar Miller has fallen out of favor with the team’s coaching staff. Miller hasn’t touched the ball since Week 4 and there are no indications that the team is ready to demote second-year player Daniel Thomas behind Miller. Taken in the 4th round of this year’s draft, Miller played well in a Week 2 win over the Raiders, gaining 65 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. While the Dolphins remain high on Miller, Thomas has taken hold of the backup job to Reggie Bush and it appears that he will hold onto it for the balance of the season barring injury.

3. After getting blown out by the Chargers 31-13 on Thursday night, the Chiefs have now gone eight straight games without holding a lead. Their lone win of the season came during an overtime game against the Saints in Week 3 when they managed to tie the game late in the 4th quarter before kicking a game winning field goal in overtime.

4. In Atlanta, tight end Tony Gonzalez has slowed down over the team’s last two games (71 receiving yards) after a solid start to the season (39 receptions for 388 yards and four touchdown over his first five games). The Falcons plays the Cowboys this week and with 46 receptions, Gonzalez needs to notch just four receptions to reach the 50-reception mark for the 15th consecutive season. That is a remarkable feat particularly considering the atrocious play at the quarterback position during much of his time in Kansas City.

Starks should get more playing time beginning this week.

5. For the truly desperate, you could do worse than take a flyer on Packers running back James Starks this week. With the Arizona Cardinals fading and Alex Green struggling as Green Bay’s starting running back, Starks is in line for an increased workload. The word out of Green Bay is that Starks was in the game plan last week but taken out due to a stomach virus that kept him off the practice field. One thing is for certain, with playoff and Super Bowl aspirations, Green Bay’s coaching staff isn’t going to keep trotting Green out there if he fails to produce for the fourth consecutive game.

6. Sticking with the desperation theme, Justin Forsett could get some carries this week as the Texans figure to have their way with Buffalo’s 31st ranked run defense and Ben Tate out again with a hamstring injury. In Detroit, the immortal Joique Bell could split time with Mikel Leshoure due to Leshoure’s leg injury which landed him on the injury report. The Jaguars 25th ranked run defense is on tap for the Detroit backs, a situation that offensive coordinator Scott Linehan may take advantage of due to injury concerns with standout wide receiver Calvin Johnson.

7. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. With that, I once again present wide receiver Danario Alexander. Released by the Rams after being unable to perform in the preseason due to injuries, Alexander resurfaced with the Chargers a week ago and promptly made his presence felt during the Chargers win over Kansas City. Alexander looked explosive, catching all three of his targets for 61 yards. At 6’5 and 217 pounds and with solid deep speed, Alexander fits the mold of the wide receivers that general manager A.J. Smith typically acquires and with free agent acquisition Robert Meachem struggling during his first year in San Diego, Alexandeer could carve out a solid role over the last half of the season. That makes him worthy of a flyer in deep (maybe extremely deep?) leagues. The kid is talented but injury prone and with a degenerative knee condition.

8. In Oakland, quarterback Carson Palmer is quietly on pace to finish the season with the 6th most passing attempts in the league, a surprising number of attempts given the presence of running back Darren McFadden and the team’s injury issues at the wide receiver position. Unfortunately, although he is on pace to finish the season with just over 4,400 passing yards, Palmer has thrown for just nine touchdown in seven games. With Denarius Moore emerging as a solid leading wide receiver and Darrius Heyward-Bey back from a concussion, Palmer should improve on his current standing as the 16th rated fantasy quarterback on a FPts/G basis by season’s end.

9. Although general manager Marty Hurney was given his walking papers due to his numerous personnel blunders and with a number of teams in need of help at the running back position, the Panthers failed to unload one of their high-priced players at that position prior to the trade deadline. That seemed like an odd decision, particularly considering DeAngelo Williams’ recent lack of use (just 19 carries and no receptions over the last three games) and the likelihood the team will release him due to his high salary prior to the 2013 season.

1. With the Rams playing the Patriots this week in London, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick took a little of the shine off 2nd year running back Stevan Ridley, basically drooling over St. Louis running back Steven Jackson. While reminiscing about how Jackson was a player he personally made a trip to see on an individual basis prior to the 2004 rookie draft, Belichick heaped praise on Jackson for his toughness, ability to make tacklers miss on the second level, pass block and catch the ball out of the backfield, reminding Ridley owners and New England fans of the team’s long history of acquiring veteran backs through trades or free agency. With none of New England’s current backs providing the type of dual threat and punishing running style that Jackson has displayed throughout his career and the Rams in a rebuilding phase and satisfied with the play of rookie 7th round pick Daryl Richardson (and having 2nd round pick Isaiah Pead also on the roster), it won’t be a complete surprise if Jackson ends up going home with the Patriots on Sunday night.

VD: A good buy-low candidate.

2. Veteran 49ers tight end Vernon Davis has had a bit of an uneven run to start the season, scoring four touchdowns in his first three games but failing to find the end zone and being held to under 37 receiving yards in three of his last four games, including a Week 7 performance in which he was not targeted once. That marked the first time since Week 13 of the 2008 season that Davis failed to catch a pass, a streak of 58 consecutive games. A consummate team player, Davis hasn’t whined about his lack of use but team observers are certainly questioning the team’s failure to get the ball to their most explosive playmaker on offense. However, the attention that Davis has been receiving from opposing defenses has opened up holes for the running game, an area that opposing defensive coordinators are likely to focus on in the upcoming weeks. The bottom line is that head coach Jim Harbaugh will make the required adjustments to get Davis involved in the team’s passing attack, making him a solid buy low candidate if you can grab him in your league.

3. Jets wide receiver Stephen Hill dropped a key pass this week that would have given New York an opportunity to upset the Patriots but the team has been pleased with his performance during the games that he has been healthy this season. A hamstring injury caused him to miss two games and he failed to catch a pass in two others but Hill has displayed big play ability when given an opportunity, averaging 13.9 yards per reception and scoring three touchdowns. Look for him to improve on his performance over the 2nd half of the season and emerge as a solid option in the Jets passing attack.

4. With a tear in the plantar plate of his right foot, Redskins wide receiver Pierre Garcon is unlikely to return to the lineup after Washington’s Week 10 bye and with tight end Fred Davis having been placed on injured reserve, there is an opportunity for a player to emerge amongst the team’s group of receivers and tight ends. Over the past three weeks, veteran receiver Santana Moss has been targeted the most with 13, catching nine passes for 193 yards and three touchdowns. That makes him the Redskins receiver to target if you need a bye week fill-in but the player with the most upside is 2011 3rd round pick Leonard Hankerson. Unfortunately, Hankerson hasn’t received a steady diet of targets, getting seven or more three times and three or less three times. However, having caught six of his eight looks this past week against the Giants, that might change going forward.

5. Signed in the offseason to be the leading receiver in the Jaguars offense, Laurent Robinson had a pair of decent games to start the season before putting up a dud in Week 3 and suffering a concussion in Week 4. While he is back on the practice field this week, there are no guarantees of when he will return and also no guarantees that he will resume his spot in the starting lineup. With the team struggling to a 1-5 record and now without the services of their main offensive weapon in running back Maurice Jones-Drew for several weeks, look for Jacksonville to continue to utilize 2011 4th round pick Cecil Shorts in the starting lineup. While Shorts has made some mistakes on the field and caught just 12 of his 29 targets, he has also displayed playmaking ability in an offense desperate for it. He has averaged 23.7 yards per reception on his 12 catches and found the end zone three times and is coming off the best game of his career with four receptions for 79 yards and a score. With Robinson proving to be injury prone once again this season and fellow $6-million a year receiver Mike Thomas having caught just nine passes for 61 yards, look for the team to cut ties with both players prior to next season.