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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — September 25, 2012 @ 3:14 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Andy Dalton, Bengals
We can forgive Dalton for a subpar opening week performance against the Ravens but he has been on fire over the last two weeks, dismantling both the Browns and the Redskins. While neither team has an above average secondary and the Browns were without Joe Haden, Dalton’s numbers were still impressive, as he passed for over 300 yards and threw for three touchdowns in each game. Up next – Jaguars (21st ranked pass defense), Dolphins, (28th) and the Browns again (26th).
Moving Down
 Aaron Rodgers moving down? Who wudda thunk it? Aaron Rodgers, Packers
While the Packers skill position players have not played as well as they did in 2011, partly due to injuries, the real issue with Rodgers is the team’s offensive line, which is in shambles. And nobody is even hurt. Who knows – maybe center Jeff Saturday is having trouble with the line calls. Eight sacks to Seattle is a disgrace even if the Seahawks possess one of the league’s better (maybe best) defensive backfields. With just three touchdown passes and 745 passing yards over three games, Rodgers is currently the 23rd ranked fantasy quarterback, not what his owners had in mind, although his next two matchups look sweet (dating myself here) with the Saints and Colts up next.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Mikel Leshoure, Lions
I tried to steal this guy in a couple of leagues last week but the asking price was too high. And it just went up, courtesy of his 26 carries, 100 yards, and one touchdown on the ground this week against the Titans. Leshoure also displayed some pass catching ability, hauling in all four of his targets for 34 yards. Will he get 30 touches every week? Not a chance. But he did prove that he doesn’t need a pile of touches to rack up a decent point total. Leshoure looks like a decent RB2 from here on out.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
He’s back!!!!! But not for long if the Chiefs give him 33 carries every week.
Tashard Choice, Bills
C.J. Spiller is likely out with a sprained shoulder and Fred Jackson (knee injury) says there is a 75% chance that he will play. Let’s take that bet and go on the assumption that he won’t dress. That would make Choice the starter and he was solid against the Browns, rushing for 91 yards on 20 carries. Choice is also a solid pass catcher so even if the Bills get behind against the Patriots, he figures to get plenty of touches… provided he starts.
Andre Brown, Giants
Hello, Andre Brown! Subbing in for an injured Ahmad Bradshaw, Brown did his best Jim Brown impersonation, running roughshod over an overmatched Panthers defense last Thursday night. By game’s end, Brown had chalked up 113 yards and a pair of touchdowns on his 20 carries as well as logging three receptions for 17 yards. Sure, the Panthers D probably couldn’t have tackled a Pop Warner reject in this one and the Giants offensive line was dominant but Brown did enough to earn a share of the workload going forward. We all know Bradshaw is injury prone, rookie 1st round pick David Wilson has been a disappointment and the Giants formula in the past has been to use multiple backs.
Daniel Thomas, Dolphins
Looks like Reggie Bush will miss some time with a knee injury and Thomas played well this week against the Jets, gaining 69 yards and scoring the first rushing touchdown of his career in the Dolphins 23-20 loss. A lost fumble didn’t help his cause but he moved ahead of rookie 4th round pick Lamar Miller on the depth chart and is the odds on favorite to get the start this week against the Cardinals if Bush can’t go.
Bilal Powell, Jets
Powell had the most extensive work of his two-year career against the Dolphins, gaining 69 yards on 12 touches. With Joe McKnight buried on the depth chart and Shonn Greene not much of a receiving threat, Powell had five targets in the passing game and may be nudging the Jets into a timeshare situation with Greene. Or maybe they reduced Greene’s workload due to the concussion he suffered last week. Either way, Powell is worth a look if you have a bench spot open.
Moving Down
Chris Johnson, Titans
Moving Down three weeks in a row. The funny thing is that I’m not even bitter about his pathetic performance since I refused to own him in any of my leagues this year. This is just a bit of a hate on for guys who get their money and bust and guys who won’t man up for their poor performance. CJ2K (time to replace that nickname, folks) fails on both counts.
Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Last week, we put Ryan Williams Moving Down and that didn’t work out so well. Williams got the majority of the work this week against the Eagles and played well, gaining 83 yards on 13 carries and catching one pass for 12 yards. Wells (turf toe) can’t stay healthy and he hasn’t produced when he’s been in there. Expect this backfield to be in flux for most of 2012.
Kevin Smith, Lions
I’m dropping in here for the second week in a row just so I can provide myself with an opportunity to say I told you so to a few people who were calling me out on having Moving Down last week. Petty, yes. With Mikel Leshoure in the line up for the first time ever, Smith was unceremoniously benched this week and given no touches. Joique Bell backed up Leshoure and unless there is an injury, Smith appears to be firmly planted on the bench and likely out of a job if Jahvid Best returns at some point this season.
Stevan Ridley, Patriots
Just a little reminder that the Patriots never employ a workhorse back and there will be days like this. As in, 13 carries for Ridley for 37 yards and precious little playing time in the second half when the team went no huddle. Ridley should be a solid RB3 by season’s end but not without some hiccups along the way.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Torrey Smith, Ravens
Unless you just came out of your cave, you know what I’m talking about. Heavy heart and all and Smith is the week’s top rated fantasy receiver with six receptions for 127 yards and a pair of scores.
Ramses Barden, Giants
Meet the Giants new top backup wide receiver. With Hakeem Nicks out of the lineup and the Panthers focused on shutting down Victor Cruz, Barden went wild, catching nine of his 10 targets for 138 yards. The Giants throw it enough to support three wide receivers and it looks like Barden is finally realizing the potential that he has shown since being a 3rd round pick in the 2009 draft. Nicks owners should definitely get in on the Barden action.
Denarius Moore, Raiders
Two games, 18 targets, eight receptions, 112 yards and a score. With Darrius Heyward-Bey out for an indefinite period with a concussion and Moore getting on the same page with quarterback Carson Palmer, his fantasy prospects are on the rise.
Moving Down
Dez Bryant, Cowboys
You know, there is a line drawn somewhere in time when a player who was supposed to become something big becomes exactly what he is. It feels like Dez Bryant is about to hit that line. What he could become was always thought to be something elite. What he is right now is a guy who will score some touchdowns but doesn’t seem capable of even topping 1,000 yards. This year, Bryant’s on pace for 875 yards and he has failed to score.
Sidney Rice, Seahawks
The Seahawks are on pace to throw for 2,315 yards in 2012. Since they spread their targets around like peanut butter, Rice has just 15 looks this season, including one in Week 3.
Greg Little, Browns
Head coach Pat Shurmur says Little is on a short leash due to his propensity for dropping passes. Let’s hope you’ve had Little on a leash (as in, on your bench) thus far in 2012.
Mike Williams, Buccaneers
Yes, he has scored two touchdowns but I’m guessing that he’s not going to keep scoring at a 7:1 target to touchdown ratio. I will do the math for you. That is 14 targets on the season. Seven receptions for 104 yards. More math – 34.7 yards per game. The resurrection of Mike Williams is looking less likely as the weeks go by.
Santana Moss, Redskins
It’s officially official. The Redskins have moved on from Moss, as his target total suggests (11 on the season).
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
While Rudolph has yet to emerge as a down the field option for the Vikings, he has become a solid red zone option, hauling in three touchdowns over the past two weeks. With no proven threat opposite Percy Harvin, Rudolph looks good going forward and no, I’m not worried about the imminent return of the immortal Jerome Simpson.
Moving Down
Jason Witten, Cowboys
What’s wrong with Witten? The normally reliable Dallas tight end entered the season still healing from a spleen injury but has managed to catch just six of 16 targets over the past two games for a paltry 64 yards. Witten says he is healthy but you have to wonder given his low production in 2012. It might just be that some combination of injuries and age are finally catching up to the Cowboys likely Hall of Fame tight end.
By: Dave Stringer — September 21, 2012 @ 5:43 pm
 RGIII shouldn't be surprised about the rough treatment given to him by opposing defenses. 1. Redskins rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III suffered his first loss this week, a 31-28 nail-biter against the Rams in St. Louis. Washington had a chance to tie the game but a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty against wide receiver Josh Morgan pushed the team out of field goal range during the last minute of the contest. RGIII went off on the Rams this week, stating they were unprofessional and took some cheap shots at him. What he is forgetting is that the Rams formula was successful and his complaining about it after the game is only going to reinforce the notion that opposing defenses can get him off his game by playing to the whistle and slightly beyond. The reality is that it should be no surprise that the Rams were going to go after him since the Redskins entire offensive playbook is predicated on his unique set of skills. While the Rams were certainly playing on the edge and keeping with Jeff Fisher’s defensive philosophy from his days in Tennessee, we can be fairly certain that Washington’s offensive coaches apprised RGIII of what to expect during the week leading up to the game.
2. Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall was cleared for contact this week, opening up the possibility that he could playing during the team’s Week 3 road game against the Raiders. However, with both Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer expected to play and Pittsburgh having a Week 4 bye, look for the Steelers to sit Mendenhall this week and for him to make his 2012 season debut in the team’s Week 5 home game against the Eagles. Neither Redman nor Dwyer have done enough to wrestle the starting roll away from Mendenhall so look for him to see a normal amount of touches by Week 8 or 9, if not earlier.
3. Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant has had a disappointing start to the season, notching just seven receptions for 102 yards during the Cowboys first two games. While it is clearly too early to give up on the talented Dallas receiver, another disappointing effort against the Bucs and their 29th ranked passing defense just might make the alarm bells starting going off for Bryant owners. His preseason prognosis looked solid with the team seemingly lacking a proven 3rd wide receiver. Although Kevin Ogletree may not end up being a threat to Bryant’s usage, it is worth noting that Bryant is currently on pace to record just 102 targets in 2012, one less than he had in 2011. Also concerning for his owners should be the fact that he has topped 100 receiving yards just once in 29 career games and that was in Week 10 of his rookie season.
4. In Indianapolis, Donnie Avery has quickly made his mark with the Colts, catching 12 of his 18 targets over the team’s first two games for 148 yards and a score. New Colts offensive coordinator Bruce Arians likes what Avery has brought to the team’s offense as their only true deep threat, making it likely that he will continue to have a role in the team’s offense when fellow wide receiver Austin Collie returns from his latest concussion. The first wide receiver taken in the 2008 draft, Avery flamed out in St. Louis but may have found a home in Indianapolis in 2012. He makes for an intriguing flyer in deeper fantasy leagues.
5. You have to love Titans running back Chris Johnson. A year removed from one of the least inspiring seasons a former 2,000 yard running back has ever had, Johnson is once again struggling in 2012 and apparently laying the blame at the feet of his team’s offensive line. This week, Johnson said he wasn’t to blame for his struggles and that he wouldn’t lay the blame on others. Duh. If Johnson hasn’t performed, and he hasn’t, and he isn’t to blame, then he’s blaming the offensive line. Here’s guessing the Titans offensive line isn’t too impressed by the team’s star running back comments to the press. At this point, Johnson can’t be considered a must start and if you have a decent RB3 on a good matchup, consider putting Johnson on your bench.
6. Is the Giants Ramses Barden the real deal? While he may be a reasonably talented receiver, don’t be surprised if the Giants turn that role over to rookie 2nd round pick Rueben Randle at some point in 2012. Barden’s contract is up at the end of this season and his skill set is very similar to Randle’s. As for veteran journeyman Domenik Hixon, don’t look for him to be a key component of the team’s game planning any time soon.
7. Sticking with the Giants, the Andre Brown feel good story was a nice one and he could be a decent fantasy starter if Ahmad Bradshaw is out for a significant period of time. However, that possibility seems remote and while Brown looked good against the Panthers, it was a night in which the Giants offensive line played extremely well and Carolina’s defensive line and linebackers were mostly going through the motions. A big portion of Brown’s production came after missed tackle and while he gets credit for running hard, he clearly benefitted from a subpar night put in by the Panthers defenders.
8.In Seattle, the Seahawks are sticking to their tried and true offensive formula of pounding the ball and keeping things simple in the passing game. Despite all the hoopla about the playmaking ability of rookie 3rd round pick Russell Wilson, the team has passed the ball just 54 times in two games for 304 yards. While fantasy enthusiasts may look at the numbers and surmise that a change is in order with free agent signee Matt Flynn getting a chance to start, Seahawks management seems committed to developing Wilson as the team’s long-term starter at the position. With Wilson currently ranked 30th among fantasy quarterbacks, he is little more than a prospect in dynasty leagues and his presence is a major negative factor in wide receiver Sidney Rice’s production. With Wilson at the controls, Seattle has just one fantasy roster worthy performer in running back Marshawn Lynch.
9. In case you are wondering who the 31st rated fantasy quarterback is, that would be the Texans Matt Schaub, putting to rest the debate as to whether Houston is truly a run dominant team. Consider Schaub little more than a low end QB2 in 12-team leagues in 2012.
By: Dave Stringer — September 18, 2012 @ 3:34 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Matt Cassel, Chiefs
The way the Chiefs are going, Cassel is going to be loading up on garbage time points in 2012. Two blowouts into the season and he is the sixth ranked fantasy passer with 559 yards and three passing touchdowns to go along with a score on the ground. Even taking away the rushing touchdown, Cassel would still be ranked in the top 10. Jonathan Baldwin’s performance in Week 2 was also encouraging.
Moving Down
Jake Locker, Titans
This isn’t as much of an indictment of Locker as it is of the entire Titans offense. The offensive line looks bad, running back Chris Johnson is in a coma, Kenny Britt is tied together with string and Nate Washington has a sore calf. There are a lot of things that need to change in Tennessee for Locker to be fantasy relevant.
Running Backs
Moving Up
C.J. Spiller, Bills
Moving Up two weeks in a row. Boring, I know, but deserved courtesy of his demolition of the Chiefs. Spiller now has 364 total yards and three touchdowns for the year, ranking him as the number one fantasy running back. It’s beginning to look like the Bills starting running back gig is Spiller’s to lose.
Michael Bush, Bears
Bears head coach Lovie Smith says Forte doesn’t have a high ankle sprain but on the other hand, they re-signed Kahlil Bell so they are obviously concerned about Forte’s availability in the short term. While Forte won’t miss significant time if Smith’s comments are true, Bush figures to start for at least a week and maybe more. The team’s offense crashed back to earth after a solid Week 1 performance but Bush could be gold as the Bears face some weak rushing defenses over the next three weeks (Rams, Cowboys, Jaguars).
Andre Brown, Giants
Ahmad Bradshaw may miss some time with a neck injury and rookie 1st round pick David Wilson is firmly in the doghouse for fumbling in Week 1. Enter Brown, who looked good, rushing for 71 yards and a score on 13 carries while adding 19 yards on a pair of receptions. He looks to be the starter if the MRI on Bradshaw’s neck turns up something serious. With a Thursday game on tap, Brown figures to get the starting nod in Week 3.
Daryl Richardson, Rams
Meet Steven Jackson’s new handcuff. Or is that SJax’s new competition? We will likely never find out the real reason SJax spent most of the game standing on the sidelines (groin injury vs. benching) but what we do know is that Richardson looked good subbing in for him. The rookie 7th round pick has usurped Isaiah Pead, one of the Rams 2nd round picks, on the depth chart and rumbled for 83 yards on 15 carries while catching two balls for 19 yards. A fumble late in the 4th quarter was the only blemish on an otherwise solid performance. Jackson isn’t likely to miss any time but his owners need to run to the waiver wire to grab Richardson.
Moving Down
 CJ's fantasy value is sinking quick. Chris Johnson, Titans
From being a Barry Sandersesque talent to being a complete dud in two years. Stunning, folks, just stunning. Johnson has just 21 yards on 19 carries this season to go along with eight receptions for 58 yards. If you have anything on your bench, then sit Johnson, who faces a pair of top 10 run defenses in each of the next two weeks (Lions, Texans).
Ryan Williams, Cardinals
It’s not like Beanie Wells has been lighting it up but Williams has been awful with 18 carries for 22 yards and four receptions for 27 yards. I will do the math for you – 22 touches, 49 yards. Not to mention an almost fatal fumble late in the 4th quarter this week, giving him two lost fumbles already in 2012.
Kevin Smith, Lions
Smith was so unimpressive against the 49ers that the coaching staff turned to some retread named Joique Bell, who is 26 years old and had never carried the ball during his three years in the league. With Mikel Leshoure returning from suspension in Week 3, Smith’s fantasy value is sinking fast.
Ronnie Brown, Chargers
He’s done. Just saying.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Danny Amendola, Rams
Amendola should fumble on his first reception every game. Huh? After having the Redskins return his early fumble for a touchdown, Amendola caught fire, catching 12 passes in the first half on the way to 15 receptions, 160 yards, and one touchdown. The Rams offense goes something like this. Hand it off, pass to Amendola. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat. Amendola just might be a PPR demon in 2012.
Wes Welker, Patriots
Five receptions on 11 targets for 95 yards and no scores shouldn’t get you Moving Up, particularly when your head coach, the best in the league at what he does, appears to want to phase you out of your team’s offense. But with tight end Aaron Hernandez expected to miss several weeks with an ankle sprain, the Patriots no longer have the luxury of phasing Welker out.
Donnie Avery, Colts
With Austin Collie sidelined, Avery has taken over his spot in the starting lineup and amassed a whopping 18 targets over the first two weeks of the season, catching 12 passes for 148 yards and a score. A former 2nd round pick of the Rams, Avery was the first wide receiver taken in the 2008 draft, mostly due to his blazing speed and he might just be ready to be a solid contributor on a Colts offense that figures to be behind early and often in 2012. Points are points whether you get them in garbage time or not and we all know about Collie’s health issues.
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Just a friendly reminder that Bowe is talented and the Chiefs don’t have much at tight end and neither Steve Breaston nor Jonathan Baldwin are consistent threats opposite Bowe. He went off this week against the Bills for 102 yards and a pair of scores. Bowe might be a fool at times but he is a talented fool who has played all 16 games in four of his five seasons in the league. And he’s motivated to finally get the lucrative, long-term deal that the Chiefs have yet to offer him.
Moving Down
Robert Meachem, Chargers
Kind of looking like Malcom Floyd is the new Vincent Jackson and not Meachem, who threw up an O-fer this week.
Randy Moss, 49ers
The 49ers told us Moss would be on a limited rep count and they were apparently telling the truth. Randy has had five targets in two weeks and this week’s game against the Lions told us definitively that Michael Crabtree is the team’s top weapon at wide receiver as well as quarterback Alex Smith’s go-to guy in crunch time.
Anquan Boldin, Ravens
This week’s game against the Eagles proved that Boldin cannot beat elite cornerbacks. He remains a decent WR3 but one you likely need to sit if you know he is facing a top coverage corner.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Brandon Myers, Raiders
Two games, 11 targets, 11 receptions, 151 yards. Hey, it’s not like the Raiders have a load of proven talent at wide receiver. If you’re desperate for somebody on a roll, Myers is your man. And if he stinks it up in Week 3, it’s not like you have to feel bad for dumping him. Opposing defenses appear to be backing off the Raiders speedy wideouts and with Darren McFadden also getting plenty of attention, Myers is benefitting. For how long? Who knows.
Dante Rosario, Chargers
Three touchdowns on four targets gets you Moving Up, especially when the guy you’re playing behind can’t stay healthy. But it is worth noting that Rosario had one target in Week 1 when Antonio Gates was mostly healthy and prior to this week, Rosario last scored in 2009.
Moving Down
Fred Davis, Redskins
Two straight tough weeks for Davis who can’t seem to get on the same page with RGIII and who doesn’t seem to be a big part of what the Redskins want to do passing the ball. Even with Pierre Garcon out and facing a poor coverage corner in Craig Dahl, Davis still had only two receptions on five targets for 14 yards against the Rams.
Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
This guy can do it all but I’m beginning to get the impression he can’t do it all for 16 games. This will be the third year in a row that he has missed time due to injury, a likely high ankle sprain sending him to the sideline this time.
By: Dave Stringer — September 14, 2012 @ 4:05 pm
1. It took all of one week for the notion that San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates would remain injury free in 2012 to come crashing down. Gates suffered a rib injury during the team’s opening week win over the Raiders and was limited to Friday practice prior to the Chargers home game against the Titans this week. He was generally the 3rd tight end off the board in most fantasy drafts based on the belief that he was healthy and would benefit from the free agent defection of wide receiver Vincent Jackson to the Buccaneers. Unfortunately, his fantasy owners will once again need to shuffle their rosters and starting lineups with the rib injury making him a questionable start in Week 2. With San Diego being a west coast team, those decisions aren’t always easy to make at 1:00 p.m. on Sundays.
2.In the offseason, the Falcons let it be known that they planned on opening up their passing attack under new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and while most pundits expected that to happen, most didn’t expect the team to go as heavy on the pass as they did in Week 1. Despite the fact they never trailed and won by a score of 40-24, the Falcons ran the ball just 23 times and threw 31 passes. The fantasy prognosis for running back Michael Turner took another hit as he had just 11 carries for 32 yards, just four more carries than backup Jacquizz Rodgers. At this point, Turner shapes up as nothing better than a fantasy backup.
3. Over in Kansas City, the expectation was that the Chiefs would rely heavily on Peyton Hillis early in the season in order to ease Jamaal Charles’ return from a torn ACL that ended his 2011 season in Week 2. However, that scenario did not materialize in Week 1 with Charles getting 16 touches to just 10 for Hillis. While this ratio doesn’t torpedo Hillis’ fantasy value, it certainly does lessen it and makes Charles a much more valuable option earlier in the season than most expected.
4. In St. Louis, the Rams bad luck with injuries has continued with free agent center Scott Wells being placed on injured reserve. Wells was signed to bolster the team’s porous offensive line and help keep franchise quarterback Sam Bradford upright. The loss of Wells lowers the value of running back Steven Jackson as well as Bradford, who will face off against Redskins rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III this week in marquee matchup featuring the quarterback the Rams could have had and the one they chose to keep. If you’re wondering what one to keep from a fantasy perspective (and I’m pretty sure you’re not), this little tidbit might help you out. In 27 career starts, Bradford has thrown for 300 or more yards three times while RGIII threw for 300 in his only start. There’s more. Bradford has 92 career rushing yards while RGIII ran for 42 yards last week. Let’s go out on a limb and jump to the conclusion that the Rams probably aren’t too enamored with the NFL’s schedule maker.
 Cutlers was up to his usual tricks and picks Thursday night. 5. The Bears offense crashed back to earth in Week 2 with quarterback Jay Cutler having another awful day against the Packers. Neither outcome should be a surprise since the accolades the team’s offense was getting after dismantling an overmatched Colts defense weren’t exactly deserved. The Bears failed to address the offensive line in the offseason and remain unable to protect Cutler. And, while the addition of Brandon Marshall was a clear upgrade at the wide receiver position, the team lacks a consistent option opposite Marshall with Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and rookie 2nd round pick Alshon Jeffery sharing time at that position. At tight end, the team lacks a proven receiving option and offensive coordinator Mike Tice failed to dial up any screen passes in Week 2 to help slow down the Packers pass rush. While the Bears abysmal offensive performance in won’t likely be repeated any time soon, the team is unlikely to have anything more than a mid-tier offense in 2012, particularly with running back Matt Forte likely to miss time with a high ankle sprain.
6. In Tampa Bay, rookie 1st round pick Doug Martin’s stranglehold on the team’s starting running back position became a little stronger with news that backup LeGarrette Blount suffered a stinger in Week 1. While Blount was clearly being relegated to a backup role, new head coach Greg Schiano has shown a preference for players that avoid the injury bug (witness the trade of tight end Kellen Winslow). That doesn’t bode well for Blount, who faces competition for touches from former Giant D.J. Ware, who is more familiar with new offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan’s playbook from their time together with the Giants.
7. All it took was one week to prove that Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson should not have been a 1st or 2nd round selection in your fantasy draft. While Richardson is clearly a talented back and will have a productive career in the league barring injury, there are too many obstacles for him to have a solid fantasy season in 2012. The Browns offensive line features three largely unproven starters and the team’s group of wide receivers rank near the bottom of the league. At quarterback, rookie1st round pick Brandon Weeden figures to improve as the season progresses but isn’t ready to lift up an offense that lacks playmakers to a respectable level. Cleveland is going to struggle to move the ball on a consistent basis in 2012 and that will likely relegate Richardson to low end RB2 status by season’s end.
8. Washington head coach Mike Shanahan was up to his usual tricks in Week 1, loading up rookie 6th round pick Alfred Morris with 28 carries while dishing out two carries each to Roy Helu, Evan Royster and Darrel Young. The fact Morris started wasn’t exactly as big of a surprise as his huge workload, the most of any running back in the league. For what it’s worth, his production was more volume based than anything, as he accumulated 96 yards and two touchdowns. If I had to make a guess as to whether an NFL talent evaluator was overly impressed by Morris’ performance in Week 1, the guess would be no. Look for the Redskins to have a revolving door at running back once again in 2012 and if I had to roll the dice on one, it would be Helu.
By: Dave Stringer — September 11, 2012 @ 4:04 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Robert Griffin III, Redskins
Looks like RGIII has a chance to be CNII. Nothing like a bad pun to get the year rolling. RGIII looked poised, calm and efficient on his way to a 19-26, 320-yard, two-touchdown performance and his 42 yards on the ground were just icing on the cake. Let’s call him a low-end fantasy starter until he shows us otherwise.
Mark Sanchez, Jets
Who needs the preseason? Looks like the Jets don’t. After a truly awful offensive performance during the preseason, the Jets blew out the Bills with Sanchez leading the way. He threw for 266 yards and three touchdowns and a pick. It was also nice to see rookie wide receiver Stephen Hill establish himself as a deep threat.
Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars
Gabbert looked good in a Week 1 loss to the Vikings, completing 23 passes for 260 yards and a pair of touchdowns, all career highs. No, he’s not going to be savior for your fantasy squad this season but he may emerge as a serviceable backup.
Moving Down
Sorry folks, no quarterbacks are getting thrown under the bus after Week 1.
Running Backs
Moving Up
 Nobody's arrow is pointing higher than Spiller's right now. C.J. Spiller, Bills
Fred Jackson is out at least a month with a knee sprain, his second injury in two seasons and a reminder that he is 31 years old. Spiller went off on the Jets for 169 yards and a score on just 14 carries while chipping in 25 yards through the air. He performed well replacing Jackson in 2011, accumulating 446 yards rushing, 187 receiving yards and scoring five touchdowns over his last six games.
Alfred Morris, Redskins
Morris got the start for the Redskins this week and put together a solid, if not spectacular, game gaining 96 yards and scoring twice on 28 carries. The rookie 6th round pick is currently the apple in head coach Mike Shanahan’s eye but we all know Shanny has a wandering eye. Quite frankly, his production seemed to be based more on volume than ability. No one should be surprised if this turns out to be his high water mark for the year.
Stevan Ridley, Patriots
Ridley flashed his ability during his rookie season in 2011 but after 21 carries, 125 yards, and one touchdown in Week 1, it looks like he is ready to carry the mail for the Patriots on a consistent basis. With Shane Vereen unable to stay healthy, Ridley is splitting the work with Danny Woodhead and that is a far better fantasy situation than in 2011 when four players were vying for touches in the New England backfield.
Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers
With Isaac Redman looking like the consummate plodder, Dwyer may have emerged as the team’s starter in Week 1, at least until Rashard Mendenhall gets up to speed. While Dwyer’s numbers weren’t spectacular (9 carries for 43 yards; 2 receptions for 11 yards), he ran hard and looked like the most explosive player in the team’s backfield.
Moving Down
Chris Johnson, Titans
Ready to bounce back, eh? Four yards on 11 carries against a less than stellar Patriots run defense didn’t do much to lessen the concerns that Johnson went into autopilot after he got his big money deal.
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
With Jonathan Stewart inactive and a leaky Bucs run defense on tap, Williams looked like a solid start in Week 1. Not so fast. Williams ran for negative yardage on his six carries. This isn’t an indictment on Williams as much as it is of the team’s offensive line.
Michael Turner, Falcons
With the Falcons moving to a more pass-oriented offense, Turner was expected to see fewer touches in 2012. However, his fantasy owners were hoping he would churn out some yardage in blowouts and that wasn’t in the case in Week 1, with Turner gaining just 32 yards on 11 carries. Since we know he can’t catch the ball, it seems clear that Turner is headed to his worst fantasy production since he was a backup in San Diego.
Isaac Redman, Steelers
He looked awful and that is all there is to say about that.
Alex Green, Packers
No PT for Green this week even though Cedric Benson was (is????) awful so maybe he is not Benson’s handcuff after all.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Kevin Ogletree, Cowboys
After his impressive Week 1 performance with eight receptions for 114 yards and a pair of touchdowns (all single game career highs), Ogletree has to be Moving Up. But much like Alfred Morris, don’t sell the farm to get this guy.
Stephen Hill, Jets
Much like Ogletree, Hill has to be Moving Up after a five receptions, 89 yards, and two touchdowns. But let’s face it, the Bills pass defense stunk and Hill likely just used up 25% of his 2012 fantasy production sitting on somebody’s bench. He remains bye week filler but filler you are now more comfortable with.
Lance Moore, Saints
Moore was Drew Brees’ favorite target in Week 1, catching six of the 10 passes thrown his way for 120 yards and a score against the Redskins. While Moore’s target count reflected the fact the Saints were playing from behind early, it is also worth noting that Devery Henderson was targeted just twice. This just might be the year that Moore emerges as a consistent weekly threat in the high-powered Saints offense.
Donald Jones, Bills.
One man’s misfortune is another man’s opportunity. But in Jones’ case, it is two men’s misfortune is another man’s opportunity. With David Nelson out for the year and Fred Jackson out for at least four weeks and the wide receiver depth chart consisting of unproven rookie T.J. Graham and journeyman veterans Ruvell Martin and Brad Smith, Jones figures to get plenty of targets in the coming weeks.
Randall Cobb, Packers
Was it just me or did Cobb seem to spend more time lining up at running back than the Packers actual running backs? With the Pack playing from behind, Cobb gobbled up all nine of his targets for 77 yards, making him worthy to stash on your bench.
Moving Down
David Nelson, Bills
Done. For. The. Year.
Brian Quick, Rams
Nailed. To. The. Bench.
Greg Little, Browns
Brandon Weeden looked awful, partly because Little had one bounce off his hands in the red zone and deflect to an Eagles defender. In Week 1, it was four targets and no catches for Little and a little time on the pine due to a hands problem that plagued him during his rookie season.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Coby Fleener, Colts
The preseason hype was all about how fellow rookie tight end Dwayne Allen looked. After Fleener’s six receptions for 82 yards on 10 targets against the Bears, the Week 1 hype is all about how good Fleener looked.
Dennis Pitta, Ravens
Pitta looked good in Week 1, hauling in five receptions for 73 yards and a score in the Ravens blowout win over the Bengals. Better yet, his 9 targets were a career-high and the touchdown gave him four touchdowns in his last seven games. At this point, Pitta shapes us as the Ravens top receiving tight end in an offense that figures to get almost no production out of its backup wide receivers.
Moving Down
Joel Dreessen, Broncos
While Jacob Tamme was looking impressive in getting five targets and catching all of them for 43 yards and a score, Dreessen had just two looks in Week 1. Looks like this isn’t quite the 1A/1B situation many had predicted entering the season.
By: Dave Stringer — September 7, 2012 @ 1:23 pm
1. The NFL has clearly morphed into a passing league over the past several years with that trend culminating in six quarterbacks throwing for more than 4,600 yards in 2011. While that trend is expected to continue in 2012, there is also a chance that the total passing yardage in the league will decline this season with five teams starting rookie quarterbacks in Week 1. Of those five, only Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck appears poised to post a season with over 3,000 passing yards with the Redskins Robert Griffin III having an outside chance to reach that level of production. However, Russell Wilson is expected to lead a Seahawks offense that will rely heavily on the run while the Browns Brandon Weeden and the Dolphins Ryan Tannehill lead offenses that are devoid of proven playmakers. With so many rookies under center, expect inconsistent production from the wide receivers on these five teams.
 Don't hesitate in taking a flier on James Starks. 2. The fantasy value of Packers running back James Stark has plummeted since the start of training camp, courtesy of his lackluster performance and a high ankle sprain that caused him to miss most of the preseason. The 2010 sixth-round pick has lived up to his label coming out of the draft of being injury-prone and currently sits third on the depth chart behind recently signed Cedric Benson and 2011 third-round pick Alex Green. While Starks’ third string status is clearly problematic, his ascension back to the top of the depth chart may not be as far-fetched as his current fantasy value reflects. There is a reason that Benson was available on the free agent market as teams were wary of his penchant for putting the ball on the ground in 2011 as well as his lack of burst. As for Green, the Packers brass is high on him but he is coming off a torn ACL and the team is wary of overusing him. Add it all up and taking a flyer on Starks in midsize to larger leagues isn’t a bad bet.
3. Fantasy owners are hoping that Week 1 would provide some answers regarding the workload their running backs will receive in the many RBCC backfields in the league. However, injuries and surprising returns from injuries seem certain to keep those answers from being discovered for several weeks. In Carolina, Jonathan Stewart may not be a go in Week 1 while Bengals backup Bernard Scott will not play on opening day. Meanwhile, the Vikings Adrian Peterson and the Steelers Rashard Mendenhall will likely be game time decisions on Sunday as will the Chargers Ryan Mathews on Monday night. Throw in Maurice Jones-Drew’s return from a lengthy holdout, Marshawn Lynch’s back spasms and Mikel Leshoure’s suspension and there will be a whole pile of fantasy owners with tough decisions on who to start in their backfield in Week 1.
4. One of the bigger questions after Week 1 for many fantasy owners will be whether to buy into Kevin Ogletree based on his performance during the Cowboys win over the Giants. Ogletree had the best game of his career, catching 8 of his 11 targets for 114 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Not bad for a player who had accumulated 294 receiving yards during the first three years of his career. He clearly benefited from Jason Witten’s lack of use due to a spleen injury but it is also worth noting that the Cowboys only threw the ball 29 times in the game. Ogletree has an outside chance to replicate Laurent Robinson’s production from a year ago as the team’s third receiver (54 receptions for 858 yards and 11 touchdowns) but he lacks the size to consistently get clean breaks off the line of scrimmage and the Cowboys have been underwhelmed by his consistency in the past. If you are in the market for help at wide receiver, Ogletree is worth grabbing but not likely at the expense of dropping a player who you were high on entering the season.
5. The Rams passing offense featured plenty of question marks entering training camp and the preseason did little to provide any answers to those questions. In fact, the team’s passing attack enters the season looking worse than predicted. Rookie receivers Brian Quick, chosen in the 2nd round, and Chris Givens, taken in the 4th round, did little to differentiate themselves from the pack of veterans led by Steve Smith and Brandon Gibson. Only diminutive Danny Amendola is assured of consistent playing time at wide receiver throughout the year. Making matters worse for the Rams were the surprise decisions to release backup quarterback Kellen Clemens and backup tight end Michael Hoomanawanui, leaving undrafted rookie free agent Austin Davis backup up Sam Bradford and no proven pass catching tight end to compliment Lance Kendricks.
6. The Cardinals made the not altogether surprising decision to demote Kevin Kolb from the starting lineup in favor of John Skelton. Kolb has struggled during his short stay in Arizona and Skelton went 6-2 as the Cardinals quarterback last season. While Skelton’s ascension to the starting lineup shouldn’t surprise, the Cardinals have not committed to using him as their starter for the entire season. More than likely, Kolb will get a shot to reclaim the job at some point as Skelton’s lack of accuracy is almost sure to land him in the doghouse with the team’s coaching staff.
By: Dave Stringer — August 16, 2012 @ 2:21 pm
Aaron Rodgers: The top QB in fantasy football.
Much like Peyton Manning used to be considered money in the bank as the league’s elite fantasy signal caller, that throne has now been passed to Aaron Rodgers. Entering his fifth season as the Packers starter, Rodgers has finished as the 2nd, 1st, 2nd and 1st rated fantasy quarterback with the 2011 season rating as his most remarkable season to date. Despite sitting out the finale, Rodgers set career highs in passing yards (4,643) and touchdowns (45), topping his previous best of 30 by 15. If that wasn’t impressive enough, he also chipped in 257 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, bring his season averages as a starter in those categories to 281 and four. Shall we continue? The Packers have the best group of wide receivers in the league and go five deep at the position. Their tight end has the potential to emerge a notch below Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. Their head coach treats the running game as an afterthought. Rodgers is just 28 years old, the age where most quarterbacks are entering their prime. Could he be even better in 2012? Well, if he starts all 16 games, why not? We wouldn’t go so far as to predict that but we wouldn’t discount the possibility. If Rodgers isn’t the first quarterback off the board in your league, then join a new one. After Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy are gone, feel free to grab Rodgers. And if you are picking in the top three and really love him, go for it. As noted, he’s money in the bank.
The Packers spent the offseason talking up Starks and his potential as a workhorse back in their offense. Then they signed Cedric Benson midway through training camp after Starks suffered a turf toe injury. Some players spend their whole careers on the cusp of earning a major role and you get the feeling that will be the story of James Starks. A 6th round pick in the 2010 draft, he entered the league with the reputation of being injury prone and he’s spent his career backing up that claim, having missed 13 games of his rookie season due to injury and then three more in 2012 while also playing nicked up in numerous other contests. Starks entered training camp as a solid RB3 with upside given the expectation that he would not be splitting the job with a veteran back like he did with Ryan Grant. However, with Benson likely to earn a roster spot, Starks is a RB4 and most likely best suited to using in the flex role in leagues that use that position.
With a pile of injuries at the running back position, the Packers restocked midway through training camp by signing Cedric Benson. Despite topping 1,000 rushing yards in each of the three previous seasons, there was little market for Benson’s services this offseason but he will get a decent opportunity to earn a starting role in Green Bay. Or he may enter the season on the street. With the Packers not paying him any signing bonus, it is clear that Benson will need to prove his worth in the preseason in order to make the roster. However, with James Starks’ return from turf toe uncertain and Alex Green recovering from a torn ACL, it seems likely that Benson will open the season either in a starting role or in a reserve capacity. It’s too early to tell what the Packers plans for him are but he is worth taking a flier on given his potential starting role in the league’s best offense.
The Packers liked Green enough to select him in the third round of the 2011 draft but he spent his rookie season nailed to the bench before suffering a season ending ACL tear in Week 7. Green shaped up as a potential late round flier in 2012 as the player most likely to enter the season behind James Starks on the depth chart but injuries at the running back position forced the Packers to sign free agent Cedric Benson part of the way through training camp. With Benson on the roster and Green on a reduced workload as he recovers from his injury, don’t expect much from him in 2012. Given Starks’ struggles with injuries and inconsistency, Green is a decent dynasty league prospect but he’s little more than a lottery ticket in 2012.
Like the other Packers running backs, Saine’s value took a hit when Cedric Benson was signed in training camp. Saine played reasonably well in a backup role after earning a roster spot as an undrafted rookie free agent and seemed like a decent bet to be used in a pass receiving role when training camp opened. While that may still be the case, Benson’s presence coupled with reports indicating that fellow backup Alex Green’s rehab from a torn ACL is going well have torpedoed what little fantasy value Saine had. Grab him off the waiver wire if he plays well early in the season.
Jennings was on pace to set a career high in receptions, reach double digit touchdowns for the third time in five years (nine in 2008) and top 1,000 receiving yards for the fourth season in a row when he suffered a sprain knee in Week 14 that caused him to miss the rest of the regular season. While the timing of his injury was unfortunate and likely sank the fortunes of many of his fantasy owners, Jennings has remained injury free for most of his career, missing just eight games during his six years in the league. Although Jordy Nelson emerged as one of the league’s better receivers in 2011, Jennings remains the Packers most explosive playmaker at the position and the receiver opposing defensive coordinators are most focused on. While Jennings isn’t a typical diva receiver, it doesn’t hurt that he is entering a contract year. With Jennings, you get consistent production on a year over year basis as well as on a weekly basis as he topped double digit fantasy points in nine of the twelve full games he played last season. In two of the other three games, he put up 8 and 9 points. As fantasy wide receivers go, Jennings has plenty to offer. Consider him a mid-tier WR1 in 2012.
While it’s not exactly fair to say that Nelson burst onto the scene in 2011 since he had showcased some playmaking ability during his first three years in the league, it is fair to say that he shocked those outside of the Packer Nation with his performance last season. Nelson finished as the 2nd ranked fantasy wide receiver courtesy of his 68 reception, 1,263 yard, 15 touchdown season. What is perhaps even more remarkable is that Nelson put up those numbers despite being targeted just 96 times, easily the lowest amount of any top 10 fantasy receiver. Nelson clearly benefited from consistently facing single coverage, hauling in eight touchdowns on passes of 36 yards or more. While Nelson may get more targets in 2012, expecting another 15-touchdown performance isn’t very realistic. It’s also worth noting that Nelson also benefitted from the absence of Greg Jennings down the stretch, as he racked up 20 receptions for 387 yards and six touchdowns between Weeks 14 and 17. With so many mouths to feed, Nelson isn’t going to get the 140 or more targets that many top wide receivers get but expect another productive season in 2012, one that will likely rank him as a lower tier WR1 or upper tier WR2.
Since Driver’s string of seven 1,000 yards seasons over last eight years ended in 2009, he has gone from being a solid fantasy producer to a bit of a vulture in the Packers offense. Driver was targeted 56 times in 2011, hauling in 37 receptions for 445 yards and six touchdowns. However, unless you had a chance to be a fly on the wall in the Packers game planning meetings, you wouldn’t ever know when to start him. With younger players James Jones and Randall Cobb in the fold as backups, Driver wouldn’t even see a big increase in targets if starters Greg Jennings or Jordy Nelson were lost to injury. Driver isn’t worth owning in 2012.
Poor James Jones. Despite spending almost his entire career as a backup, he has averaged 46 receptions for 608 yards and 4.8 touchdowns per season during the four years that he has played 16 games. That’s pretty solid production for a backup. Unfortunately, when he hit the free agent market prior to the 2011 season, the market for his services never developed and he re-signed in Green Bay. Then the Packers drafted Randall Cobb in the 2nd round of last year’s draft and kept aging veteran Donald Driver. Both players return in 2012, meaning Jones will once again split the backup role with two other players. While it helps matters that the Packers love to play with five wide formations, Jones doesn’t get fed enough (just 55 targets last season) to make him fantasy relevant. Unless he gets a new home during the preseason, Jones will shape up as a low end WR4 or as a WR5 in 2012.
Taken in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft, Cobb looked like a future stud after he took a kickoff back for a touchdown and caught a nifty 32 yard touchdown pass in the Packers opening game of the season. While he showcased his play-making ability in that game, it didn’t change Green Bay’s plans to limit his role and Cobb ended up finishing the season with just 31 targets, catching 25 passes for 375 yards and that one touchdown. Unfortunately for Cobb, the Packers re-signed aging veteran Donald Driver in the offseason and James Jones remains on the roster despite reports indicating that the team was considering moving him. As we noted last season, most 2nd round receivers end up getting a decent shot at playing time but that’s a difficult proposition when you play on a team with the deepest, most talented group of wide receivers in the league and one that also possesses a Pro Bowl quality tight end. While it’s easy to love Cobb’s game and potential, it’s pretty much impossible to love his fantasy prospects for 2012. He’s waiver wire material this season but a solid prospect in dynasty formats.
While the sky may be the limit in terms of Finley’s upside, the fact remains that he was mostly a bust in 2011 even though the season-ending numbers indicate that he finished last season as the fifth ranked fantasy tight end with 55 receptions for 767 yards and eight touchdowns. Unfortunately for his owners, Finley was the most inconsistent top ten fantasy tight end. Of his 124.7 fantasy points, 26.5 came during a three-touchdown performance in Week 3, 12.4 came in Week 17 (when most leagues were finished) and he had double digit point performances just three times in the first 16 weeks of the season. In his 13 non-double digit performances during weeks 1-16, he averaged just 4.7 points per game. The issue with Finley isn’t talent, it is lack of opportunity as he finished with the lowest average targets per game amongst the top 10 fantasy tight ends. And with the Packers returning all of their key skill position players on offense, why should we expect much to change in 2012? Consider Finley a mid-tier starting fantasy tight end with upside but one whose inconsistent production may frustrate you.
By: Dave Stringer — August 15, 2012 @ 9:10 am
 Stafford led the league with 663 attempts last season.
Considered an injury risk heading into his third year in the league in 2011, Stafford proved his doubters wrong by putting together a Pro Bowl quality season (although he miraculously wasn’t named to the Pro Bowl) by throwing for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns. With the Lions struggling to run the ball, Stafford led a high flying passing attack that threw the ball 663 times and attempted more passing plays than any team in the league. Perhaps most impressively, Stafford was able to produce in the clutch, leading the Lions to big comeback wins over the Cowboys, the Vikings and the Raiders in helping Detroit secure their first playoff spot in more than a decade. If you were looking for consistency, Stafford provided that too by registering fewer than 19 fantasy points just once. That’s what happens when you throw for multiple touchdowns 12 times, have eight 300-yard passing games and fail to throw for 250 yards just four times. What’s in store for 2012? Provided Stafford remains healthy, and it is worth noting that four shoulder injuries caused him to miss 19 of his first 32 games in the league, he should finish the season as a top five fantasy quarterback. With Calvin Johnson in the fold and Titus Young expected to build on his impressive rookie season, Stafford has explosive weapons at wide receiver as well as a solid tight end in Brandon Pettigrew, not to mention perhaps a shiny new toy in 2nd round pick Ryan Broyles. While Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady need to be the first quarterbacks off the board, you could make a strong argument that Stafford needs to go number three.
When Lions head coach Jim Schwartz announced that Best was “week to week” early in training camp, that swirling sound you heard was his fantasy value heading down the drain. The Lions first round pick in the 2010 draft, Best’s first two seasons in the league have been derailed by injuries, including a devastating concussion that forced him to miss the final 10 games of last season. Concussions were also an issue for Best in college so the prognosis for 2012, and the rest of his career for that matter, remains highly uncertain. That is unfortunate because Best is a dynamic playmaker when healthy, capable as an outside runner and a receiving threat out of the backfield. In six games last year, Best averaged 112.8 yards from scrimmage and 14.3 PPG, which is RB1 territory. Since we don’t know when or if Best will return to action and we also don’t know the Lions plans for him if he does return in a backfield that could run three deep with Kevin Smith and Mikel Leshoure, taking Best in your fantasy draft is a huge gamble. He is nothing more than a late round flier until we see him on the field.
After being a 2nd round selection in the 2011 draft, Leshoure’s prospects looked rosy. Let’s run down Leshoure’s running back opportunity checklist as it looked heading into this rookie season. Incumbent is coming off a disappointing season? Check. Incumbent is injury prone? Check. Incumbent isn’t a great short yardage back? Check. Unfortunately a torn Achilles tendon ended Leshoure’s rookie season in the preseason and he enters 2012 with some major question marks, specifically maturity issues that resulted in the league imposing a two-game suspension and a hamstring problem that caused him to miss the early part of training camp. The suspension came from not one but two marijuana charges so Leshoure’s clearly got some growing up to do. Basically, the Lions don’t know what they have in Leshoure and neither do we. He’s a big back who should excel in short yardage work but he faces competition from Kevin Smith and possibly Jahvid Best for playing time, a pair of backs whose pass catching skills make them better fits in the Lions offense. Leshoure is worth taking a flier on but don’t reach for him expecting him to emerge as an upper tier RB2 in 2012.
Jahvid Best isn’t day to day, he is week to week. Mikel Leshoure is going to sit out the first two weeks of the season due to a suspension and up until mid-August, he had missed most of training camp due to a sore hamstring. Meet the Lions expected starting running back to open the season – Kevin Smith. What was old is new again in Detroit’s backfield. The old man of the Lions backfield at the ripe old age of 25, Smith returned to the fold in midseason last year, taking over the lion’s share of the team’s running back duties over the final seven games of the season. He put up 535 total yards and scored seven touchdowns over that stretch, despite playing through injuries himself. A solid fit in the Lions offense due to his ability to catch the ball (he had 79 receptions during his first two years in the league), Smith must overcome his own injury history in 2012. He starts the season with a big opportunity and that isn’t something most expected when the Lions chose not to place a RFA tender on him after the 2010 season. Consider Smith a high risk, high reward RB3 this season.
Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald says Calvin Johnson is the top fantasy wide receiver entering 2012 and we’ll take his word for it. The beast known as Megatron posted career highs across the board in 2011, with 158 targets, 96 receptions, 1,681 receiving yards and 16 touchdown passes, finishing the season as the top ranked fantasy wide receiver with a whopping 16.5 FPts/G. If you’re looking for something to quibble about, it would be Johnson’s production during a five game stretch between Weeks 10 and 14 when Johnson failed to top 100 receiving yards in any game and caught just one touchdown pass. Other than that, it was all sunshine as Johnson hit double-digit fantasy points twelve times and topped 100 receiving yards eight times. Since Johnson has the ability to regularly beat double and even triple teams, he is basically money in the bank given his lack of missed time during his five-year career (just three missed games). The only potential red flag is the health of quarterback Matt Stafford, who put together his first 16 game season in 2011. Megatron needs to be the first wide receiver off the board in 2012 and he makes for a solid 1st round pick. No other wide receiver is even close.
Looking to replenish their wide receiver depth chart and provide quarterback Matthew Stafford with another offensive weapon, the Lions wisely used a second round pick in 2011 to acquire Young. And Young didn’t disappoint, putting together a solid rookie season during which he showcased his solid playmaking skills. Despite lacking ideal size at 5’11”, 174 pounds, Young proved capable of lining up outside and finished his rookie season with 48 receptions for 607 yards and six touchdowns. After putting up decent numbers over his first seven games, the speedy Young came on down the stretch catching 33 of his 52 targets over his final nine games for 398 yards and all six of his touchdowns while averaging 8.4 FPts/G over that stretch. That’s WR3 territory, folks. While the Lions figure on passing less in 2012, they will still chuck it around plenty and Young has earned a bigger role at Nate Burleson’s expense. That bodes well for Young’s fantasy prospects as does lining up opposite Calvin Johnson. Look for Young to build upon his solid rookie season and emerge as a low end WR3 in 2012, provided he keeps his maturity issues in check. He is a solid dynasty league prospect.
In 2011, Burleson had a bigger role in the Lions offense, seeing increases in his targets (86 to 110), completion to target percentage (66.4% in 2011), receptions (73, a career high) and yards (757). That’s the good news. And here’s the bad. Burleson seems to have lost whatever explosiveness he had left, with his yards per reception dropping for the second consecutive season (from 12.9 to 11.4 to 10.4) and his touchdown count declining from six to three. Did we mention the Lions have used 2nd round picks in consecutive years (Titus Young in 2011 and Ryan Broyles this year) to upgrade the wide receiver position? The writing is on the wall, folks. Young had a solid rookie season and figures to earn more looks in 2012, pushing Burleson inside to a slot receiving role more frequently. Considering the Lions are likely to throw it less than they did in 2012 when they led the league in passing plays, Burleson’s fantasy prospects this season aren’t looking so great. And it’s not like he was great in 2011, averaging just 5.9 FPts/G. He’s a WR5 with little upside.
Despite having three solid wide receivers, the Lions used a 2nd round pick on Oklahoma wide receiver Ryan Broyles even though Broyles suffered a torn ACL last November. The pick was panned somewhat but with Nate Burleson aging and chewing up a decent chunk of salary cap space, Broyles figures to line up as the team’s main slot receiver within a year or two. And there’s a chance he could earn some looks at some point in 2012. More quick than fast and lacking ideal size at 5’10” and 188 pounds, Broyles isn’t a candidate to earn a major role outside but he caught a ton of balls in college, making him an intriguing flier in deep, PPR leagues, although he may not be fully recovered early in the season. Look for Broyles to have a limited role early in the season but monitor his usage and consider him a potential waiver wire candidate by mid-season. He rates as a mid-tier dynasty prospect given his potential role as a target eating slot receiver in a young Lions offense.
With the Lions stable of running backs struggling with injuries and failing to provide the team with consistent production, Pettigrew emerged as a solid receiving option on short routes and was a target machine, finishing 2011 with the second highest target total amongst tight ends with a whopping 126. Unfortunately, that caused his yards per reception to drop to 9.4 as Pettigrew finished the season with 83 receptions for 777 yards and five touchdowns. While that is solid production, it is hard to predict a breakout season for Pettigrew in 2012. If he is going break out, it is going to have to result from increasing his touchdown count. The problem there is that the Lions possess the top wide receiver red zone threat in the league in Calvin Johnson. Also not helping matters is the presence of backup tight end Tony Scheffler who pilfered six touchdowns last season. In 2012, look for Pettigrew to post similar production to what he put up in 2011, making him a lower tier fantasy starter.
The Lions reduced Scheffler’s role in their offense during his second year with the team but he still managed to put together a solid 2011 season. Playing second fiddle to a fully healthy Brandon Pettibrew, Scheffler saw his targets decrease from 72 to 42 but his fantasy points increase from 44 to 71. That’s making more with less, folks. Scheffler’s point total jump is directly attributable to his touchdown production as he emerged as a solid option in the red zone, catching five touchdowns between the opposition’s 10 and 20 yard line. While his 2011 production was amazing considering his target total, it is not hard to consider it a bit of a fluke considering he caught a touchdown pass every seven targets. If Pettigrew were to go down, Scheffler is productive enough that he would likely emerge as an upper tier fantasy backup.
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