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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — March 19, 2012 @ 4:14 pm
Various news outlets are reporting that former Colts quarterback Peyton Manning will be joining the Denver Broncos for the 2012 season.
 Is the AFC West Denver's division to lose? The Manning sweepstakes began when Indianapolis chose not to pay their future Hall of Fame quarterback a $28-million bonus payment, releasing him on March 7th and setting in motion the biggest free agent frenzy for one player in the history of the league.
After his release, reports indicated that up to 12 teams had inquired as to whether Manning was interested in signing with them. Presumably the only teams that didn’t inquire were those with Pro Bowl quality quarterbacks, outstanding young players at the position or teams that knew they had no chance to land the player regarded as arguably the best to ever play the position.
In the end, Manning’s decision came down to three teams – the Broncos, the Titans and the 49ers.
Manning’s agent, Tom Condon, must still finalize contract arrangements with the Broncos, a process that could take some time in order to protect the Broncos in the event Manning’s prior neck injuries reoccur. However, Manning has repeatedly stated that he wants to protect his next employer in the event that he is injured, making prolonged negotiations unlikely.
In Denver, Manning will join an offense that features a solid offensive line and a pair of promising young wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. The Broncos have holes at running back where Willis McGahee was productive in 2011 but has complained about his contract and at tight end.
Interestingly, the Colts released running back Joseph Addai and tight end Dallas Clark this off-season and both players remain unsigned.
Fantasy Impact
The Broncos have largely sat on the sideline for the beginning of free agency, signing former Browns safety Mike Adams and re-signing linebacker Joe Mays. Reports have indicated that the team planned to continue building through the draft with Tim Tebow at quarterback unless Manning decided to join the team.
With Manning in the fold, the Broncos are expected to become more aggressive in free agency and the expectation is that a number of former Colts could join Manning in Denver.
There can be little doubt that the team will add a multi-dimensional threat out of the backfield as well as a pass receiving tight end and perhaps a slot receiver to the roster. Since that hasn’t happened and we don’t know who those players might be and whether those areas will be addressed through free agency or the draft, it is difficult to ascertain Manning’s fantasy football value for the 2012 season.
Let’s consider his age and health.
Manning will turn 36 this month and while that is clearly old for most positions, recent history suggests that quarterbacks can be very productive at such an age. The most recent example is Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who remained productive until 38 years of age.
Health-wise, Manning’s nerve damage to his neck is clearly cause for concern but not necessarily an indicator that he is more susceptible to injury going forward.
Keep in mind that Manning’s ability to recognize coverages was the main reason the Colts regularly ranked near the bottom of the league in sacks allowed. His ability to get the ball out before being pressured reduces his likelihood of suffering an injury.
Manning’s performance over the 2009 and 2010 seasons do not suggest any drop off from his performance over the earlier part of his career. He established a career-high in passing yards in 2010 with 4,700 and threw for the 3rd highest yardage total of his career in 2009 (4,500).
In addition, he threw for 33 touchdowns in each of those seasons and a touchdown interception-ratio of two to one while finishing as the top ranked fantasy quarterback in 2010 and 4th at the position in 2009. It is safe to conclude that Manning’s performance did not suffer in either of those seasons as a result of his advancing age.
In Denver, Manning will inherit a pair of young, talented receivers entering their 3rd seasons in the league. While Decker was more productive last season (44 receptions for 612 yards and eight touchdowns), Thomas (32 receptions for 551 yards and four touchdowns) is the more exciting talent of the two. However, neither player has reached the heights of Reggie Wayne, Manning’s top wide receiver in Indianapolis.
As for comparing the tight end positions for the two teams, there’s simply no comparison. Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme were far better receiving options than what currently resides on the depth chart in Denver (a pair of second-year players in Julius Thomas and Virgil Green as well as Cornelius Ingram).
As the Denver roster currently stands, Manning would shape up as a low-end fantasy starter, perhaps sneaking into the top 10 but only barely. Lump him into the tier of fantasy quarterbacks that includes Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger but consider moving him up once we see what types of additions the Broncos management has planned on the offensive side of the ball.
Consider Thomas, a player with perhaps more physical ability than any wide receiver Manning has ever played with, a mid-tier WR2 with upside and Decker a low-end WR3.
As for Tebow, his fantasy value in redraft leagues plummets to zero and it isn’t much above that in dynasty formats.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 1:07 pm
The wide receiver signing most expected to happen entering free agency has finally occurred.
The New England Patriots have signed Brandon Lloyd to a multi-year deal. Reports indicate that Lloyd will sign a three-year, $12-million contract, a discount from what he was expected to sign for, particularly considering the free agent contracts that similar wide receivers have signed for this offseason.
 Lloyd is a significant upgrade for the Patriots at the WR position. In New England, Lloyd will be reunited with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. McDaniels was Lloyd’s head coach when he had a breakout season in 2010 and last season in St. Louis, where he served as the Rams offensive coordinator.
Lloyd posted career highs in every receiving category in 2010, finishing the season with 77 receptions for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns. Traded by the Broncos to the Rams in 2011, he finished last season with 70 receptions for 966 yards and five touchdowns.
The Patriots were in the market for a wide receiver capable of stretching opposing defenses and Lloyd has proven capable in that role over the last two seasons. He will start opposite Wes Welker and join a receiving cast featuring four Pro Bowl quality players including Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
Fantasy Impact
Let the hype machine start rolling and it is going to be based on Lloyd’s stellar 2010 production with McDaniels in Denver combined with Randy Moss’ other-worldly production with McDaniels in New England.
Let’s run down the reasons why Lloyd could bust out once again in 2012.
Moss consistently topped 1,000 yards and double digit touchdowns as the Patriots main deep threat, the role that Lloyd figures to fulfill this season. It is also worth noting that Lloyd’s breakout season came with Kyle Orton at quarterback and Tom Brady is several notches up the quarterback food chain from Orton.
Let’s also throw in that BenJarvus Green-Ellis remains unsigned so the Patriots current running back depth chart features a pair of unproven second-year players in Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen as well as Danny Woodhead, whose main role is as a receiver out of the backfield. If that situation doesn’t change, we can assume even more passing attempts in New England in 2012.
Time to switch to the cup is half-empty mode.
In his 2010 breakout season, Lloyd wasn’t just the Big Dog in Denver, he was the only dog. The team’s other wide receivers were Jabar Gaffney, a slumping Eddie Royal and a pair of largely unproductive rookies in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker.
That factor combined with the fact that Broncos finished 4-12 that season and spent plenty of time playing from behind helped Lloyd finish fourth in the league in targets.
Although the Patriots throw the ball plenty (the 3rd most in the league last season), Lloyd won’t be the Big Dog and there’s a chance he might be the Little Dog behind Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez.
Not helping matters is that Lloyd certainly won’t be the Red Zone Big Dog given the Patriots preference to either throw underneath to Welker or utilize the size of Gronkowski and Hernandez in red zone situations.
You see where I’m going on this one. The chances of Lloyd finishing as a top ten fantasy wide receiver in 2012 are very low. There certainly won’t be a repeat of his marvelous 2010 production. Consider Lloyd a mid-tier WR3 in 2012.
Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez are the fantasy losers with Lloyd’s signing as well as Rams quarterback Sam Bradford, at least if you were under the impression that Lloyd was considering re-signing with the Rams.
Welker should no longer be considered a top five fantasy wide receiver, except in PPR leagues.
In Gronkowski’s case, he remains the top ranked tight end but with lower overall production. Hernandez slides down a few notches but remains a top ten option.
The biggest fantasy football winner with Lloyd’s signing? Well, that has to be Brady. The fair-haired one comes out on top once again.
By: Dave Stringer — March 15, 2012 @ 9:52 am
With a dearth of talent at the wide receiver position and numerous free agent options going off the market quickly, the Jacksonville Jaguars entered the fray by signing former Dallas wide receiver Laurent Robinson.
 Robinson has landed in a fantasy wasteland. Reports indicate that Robinson will sign a five-year, $32.5-million contract that contains $14-million in guarantees.
Robinson enjoyed a career-year in Dallas in 2011. Despite playing a reserve role behind Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, he caught 54 passes for 858 yards and 11 touchdowns, establishing career-highs in each category.
While Dallas was satisfied with his production, they made little effort to re-sign him, likely in the belief that his production came as a result of being the team’s fourth option in the passing game behind Austin, Bryant and tight end Jason Witten.
In Jacksonville, Robinson ascends to the top of the team’s depth chart at the position and will be paired in the starting lineup with Mike Thomas, barring another free agent addition or the team using a high draft pick on the position.
While Robinson possesses solid size and speed, he has failed to remain healthy and the Jaguars will be his fifth team as he enters his sixth season in the league.
Fantasy Impact
First off, let’s take a shot at the Jaguars business acumen, particularly when it comes to the wide receiver position.
The Jaguars decided to sign Mike Thomas to a three-year, $18-million extension ($9-million in guarantees) that runs through 2015. That amounts to $6-million per season for a 5’8”, 198 pound receiver who should play out of the slot.
Of course, in Jacksonville, he was their top wide receiver in 2010, catching 66 passes for 820 yards and four touchdowns. After signing the extension, Thomas become persona non grata, catching 24 passes for 203 yards and failing to find the end zone over his next 11 games (he missed one game with an injury).
So, after that abysmal failure, do the Jaguars learn to pay a player for his ability as opposed to his performance given favorable circumstances? Not a chance.
Enter Robinson, who gets guaranteed money similar to what far more established receivers such as DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon received. This for a player who was waived by the Chargers in training camp last year, remained unsigned entering the season, has missed 28 games over the first five years of his career and has failed to establish himself as a number two receiver, let alone the top dog.
Don’t for one second make the assumption that Robinson will match his 2011 production with the Jaguars while catching passes from second-year quarterback Blaine Gabbert. It ain’t gonna happen.
Unless the Jaguars are planning on trading up to acquire Justin Blackmon in the draft, Robinson’s signing is foolhardy. Even then, it might still be.
Somebody in your league will reach or overpay for Robinson. Please don’t let it be you.
And don’t drink the Thomas or Gabbert Kool-Aid either.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 8:51 am
The Kansas City Chiefs made their first foray into the 2012 free agent market, signing former Cleveland Browns running back Peyton Hillis.
 A change of scenery may do Hillis some good. Reports indicate that Hillis has agreed to a one-year, $3-million contract with the Chiefs. He is coming off an injury-marred, drama filled 2011 season in which his rushing yardage plummeted after a career-high 1,177 rushing yards in 2010.
In Kansas City, Hillis will be reunited with the team’s new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who filled that position with Cleveland in 2010. The Chiefs will pair Hillis in the backfield with Jamaal Charles, who also enjoyed a breakout 2010 campaign before missing 14 games last season due to a torn anterior cruciate ligament.
The Chiefs were in the market for a power back after the combination of Thomas Jones, Jackie Battle and LeRon McClain failed in that role last season. Hillis will fill that role in 2012 and also provide insurance if Charles struggles in his return from injury or isn’t ready to assume a large workload early in the season.
Hillis established himself as the Browns key offensive weapon during the 2010 season, gaining 1,177 yards on 270 carries and catching 61 passes for 477 yards while scoring 13 touchdowns.
However, he struggled during his last five games of the season and suffered through a miserable 2011 season in which he topped 100 rushing yards just once while being criticized for complaining about his contract, missing a game due to strep throat and angering the team’s management due to missing treatment for his various injuries.
Reports out of Cleveland indicate the Browns were so disenchanted with his behavior that they failed to make him a contract offer.
Fantasy Impact
The good news for Hillis is that he will be playing for an offensive coordinator who believes in him and has had success rushing the ball over the last two seasons (witness career seasons for Hillis in 2010 and Reggie Bush in Miami this past season). It is also nice that Hillis will be motivated to perform in order to secure a more lucrative long-term deal after the 2012 season.
However, there is no sugarcoating that Hillis would have been given every opportunity to compete for the starting job with Montario Hardesty in Cleveland but in Kansas City, he has almost no chance of unseating Charles as the team’s starting running back.
While Hillis had an opportunity to enter 2012 as a mid-tier RB2 in Cleveland, he will be no better than an RB3 or flex option in Kansas City. For reference, take note of Thomas Jones’ 2010 production as Charles’ backup when he gained 896 rushing yards and six touchdowns. That production is Hillis’ upside for the coming season, assuming Charles remains injury free.
Given that it was known that the Chiefs were in the market for a power back and his production splitting time with Jones in 2010, Charles’ value remains static as a top 10 fantasy running back, again assuming he is sufficiently recovered from the knee injury that ended his 2011 season.
Since that injury occurred early in the season, expect Charles to be ready to assume a full load early in 2012 although he is unlikely to produce at his 2010 levels until mid-season at the earliest.
In Cleveland, quarterback Colt McCoy, the team’s current starter but with no guarantees that will remain the case on opening day, loses his best pass catching threat out of the backfield while Montario Hardesty immediately climbs to the top of the depth chart.
Unfortunately for Hardesty and his fantasy owners, the Browns are almost certain to replenish their running back depth chart and there is a possibility the team will use the 4th overall pick in the draft on Alabama running back Trent Richardson. In addition, they could look to the free agent market where the options currently include Michael Bush, Cedric Benson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Mike Tolbert, Ryan Grant and Brandon Jacobs, amongst others.
By: Dave Stringer — March 14, 2012 @ 11:20 am
The Buccaneers have joined the 2012 free agency fray, landing the top available free agent wide receiver in former Charger Vincent Jackson.
Jackson will reportedly sign a five-year, $55-million contract with Tampa Bay that includes $36-million in payments over the first three years of the deal.
With second-year players Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn suffering through sophomore slumps in 2011, the Buccaneers were in the market for a big play wide receiver and Jackson figures to take over as the team’s top threat at the position in 2012.
The former Division II player out of Northern Colorado possesses excellent size (6’5” 230 pounds) and speed, as his career average yards per catch of 17.5 indicates. Jackson has also shown the ability to out jump defenders on deep balls.
Removing his injury-marred, suspension and contract holdout shortened 2010 season, Jackson caught 187 passes for 3,371 yards and 25 touchdowns during the 2008, 2009 and 2011 seasons.
Despite his solid production, the Chargers were unwilling to sign him to a lucrative long-term contract given their belief that he had failed to reach his potential, his constant injury issues and their concerns regarding his off the field behavior.
Fantasy Impact
 Jackson's move to Tampa may not improve his fantasy stock. Off the top, this move has to be viewed as lowering Vjax’s fantasy value. He goes from catching passes from one of the top quarterbacks in the league and playing in the league’s 5th ranked scoring offense to playing with a far more inexperienced quarterback coming off a horrible season and playing in the league’s 27th ranked scoring offense. Let’s get one of those pointing down arrows and stick it beside his name.
Jackson was the 10th ranked fantasy wide receiver in 2011 but he rates as a mid-tier WR2 in 2012. Simply put, Josh Freeman is coming off a horrendous season and has not proven to be as accurate on deep passes as Philip Rivers and those plays have been Jackson’s bread and butter throughout his career in San Diego.
Freeman obviously wins out as he now has a true number one wide receiver for the first time in his career and the Bucs receiving depth chart rounds out nicely with Williams, Benn, Preston Parker, Dezmon Briscoe and Sammie Stroughter. Freeman ranks as a high-end fantasy backup with upside in 2012.
Williams wasn’t a complete bust last season but he was clearly a huge disappointment, as his yardage and touchdown totals plummeted from his solid rookie season in 2010 when he caught 64 passes for 955 yards and 11 touchdowns. Given Jackson’s size and ability to stretch the field, Williams figures to be featured on more short and intermediate routes in 2012 and his red zone opportunities also figure to be diminished.
Williams rates as fantasy backup in 2012 but is worth taking a flier on provided he shows a renewed dedication and reports to training camp in better physical condition than was the case in 2011.
Outside of deep leagues and dynasty formats, Benn’s fantasy value basically drops to nil. Unless he beats out Williams, he is waiver wire material in most formats.
However, the biggest fantasy loser is Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, who loses his top wide receiver and arguably San Diego’s top receiving option ahead of tight end Antonio Gates. While Robert Meachem will take over for Jackson in the Chargers starting line-up, he is an inconsistent player and both Gates and Malcom Floyd, the team’s other starting wide receiver, have proven to be injury-prone. Rivers moves to low-end starter status in 2012.
Both Meachem and Floyd see their fantasy values rise but neither should be relied on as a starting option in 2012 until they prove otherwise.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 11:02 am
If his Facebook page can be believed, former Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon has landed in Washington.
 Garcon: A new target for RGIII. He will reportedly sign a five-year contract worth in excess of $40-million with over half of that amount guaranteed.
With the team’s trade with St. Louis to acquire the 2nd overall pick in the draft (and the likely selection of Robert Griffin III) and reports indicating the team is also on the verge of signing former 49er Josh Morgan, the Redskins figure to start the season with new starters at quarterback and both wide receiver positions as head coach Mike Shanahan continues to overhaul the team’s offense.
Playing alongside Reggie Wayne, Garcon posted career highs in receptions with 70 and yards with 947 while scoring six touchdowns.
In Garcon, the Redskins add a player with tantalizing talent to their roster but one who has frustrated his coaches and quarterbacks with his frequent drops and questionable route running. The former Division III player from Mount Union possesses outstanding speed and solid size at 6’0” and 210 pounds but has been plagued by inconsistencies.
Morgan missed all but five games last season after suffering a broken leg, finishing the year with 15 receptions for 220 yards and one touchdown. The 2008 6th round pick burst onto the scene with an impressive training camp performance as a rookie but largely failed to assert himself as consistent receiving option during his four years in San Francisco.
While the 49ers were clearly interested in having him return, they were not willing to offer him the type of contract he received from Washington, which reportedly includes $12-million in salary over its first two years.
With Garcon and Morgan now on the roster and reports indicate that former Bronco Eddie Royal is likely to sign with the Redskins, it appears that Santana Moss’ days with the team are numbered.
Fantasy Impact
The biggest winner with these signings has to be Griffin. Garcon and Morgan offer far more potential than a diminutive, 33-year old Moss and Jabar Gaffney. Throw in tight end Fred Davis, entering his 5th year and coming off a career season, and the Redskins now boast plenty of young talent in their receiving corps.
While Garcon looks the part of a number one wide receiver, he has done little to justify the belief that he can fulfill that role. Washington is banking on Garcon fulfilling on his immense potential.
However, despite being on the receiving end of passes from perhaps the most accurate quarterback in the history of the league, Garcon caught just 55.1% of his passes during his first three years in the NFL.
On the plus side, he had a career year in 2011 catching passes from the likes of Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky. That provides some comfort and indicates that even with Griffin under center, Garcon’s downside, barring injury, figures to be his 2011 production where he finished as the 22nd ranked fantasy wide receiver, although that ranking was burnished by a number of injuries and poor performances to receivers across the league. Garcon should be considered a mid-tier WR3 entering 2012 but one with upside.
As for Morgan, he is a solid fit as the second option in a West Coast passing offense given his size and willingness to go over the middle. While he has a respectable career average yards per catch of 13.5, he doesn’t possess great deep speed. He is clearly a fantasy backup in all leagues but a player with more value in PPR leagues. A breakout 2012 campaign is very unlikely.
Moss is clearly the biggest loser with these moves as he will need to find a new team next season. Coming off his worst season since his second year in the league in 2002, it seems unlikely that any team will consider him a starting option in 2012.
Another fantasy loser is Andrew Luck, the Colts expected 2012 starter, who is now without the team’s top deep threat from 2011.
By: Dave Stringer — March 13, 2012 @ 7:55 pm
Just three years after the Denver Broncos broke up one of the most promising quarterback-wide receiver duos in the league in Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, the pair will be reunited in 2012 in Chicago.
Reports indicate that the Bears have traded their 3rd round pick in each of the next two drafts to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for Marshall.
 Marshall is taking his talents to Chicago. During their time together in Denver, Cutler and Marshall combined to form one of the league’s most lethal quarterback-wide receiver combinations. Taken together in the 2006 draft (Cutler in the 1st and Marshall in the 4th), they rose to prominence during the 2007 season with Marshall on the receiving end of 102 passes for 1,325 yards and seven touchdowns.
For Marshall, that marked the beginning of three consecutive seasons that he topped 100 receptions and 1,000 yards. During that period, he amassed 307 receptions for 3,710 yards and 23 touchdowns.
Cutler was the Broncos quarterback for two of those seasons, throwing for 8,022 yards and 45 touchdowns.
However, the duo was broken up in 2008 when Josh McDaniels took over for the fired Mike Shanahan. McDaniels flirtation with current Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel led to Cutler’s trade to the Bears.
Marshall followed Cutler out of Denver the following season; traded to the Dolphins for a pair of 2nd round picks.
In Chicago, Marshall immediately becomes the team’s top wide receiver. The Bears have failed to land a true number one wide receiver for several seasons with Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Roy Williams and Earl Bennett failing in that role in 2011.
Fantasy Impact
The Dolphins chances of landing former Colts quarterback Peyton Manning are likely over with Marshall landing in Chicago unless this move is to clear cap space and facilitate the signing of Manning and wideout Reggie Wayne. Suffice it to say that the task for whoever is starting in Miami in 2012 just got a whole lot tougher.
In Chicago, there are plenty of questions with the Bears passing offense.
Can Cutler and Marshall reclaim their magic? Can Cutler produce more with offensive coordinator Mike Martz out of the picture? Will new offensive coordinator Mike Tice bring the team’s passing attack to a new level? Can the team fortify the offensive line to give the team’s passing attack a fighting chance?
Cutler is just 28 years of age and Marshall is 27. With five consecutive seasons of at least 1,000 receiving yards, Marshall has plenty left to offer. Despite being battered for much of his time in Chicago, Cutler’s best years almost certainly lie ahead of him.
Cutler was a fantasy backup prior to this trade but with Marshall in the fold, he becomes a low-end starting option or high-end backup, assuming the team’s offensive line play improves. Look for Cutler to top the 3,666 passing yards he had in Chicago in 2009, his highest total with the team.
Marshall figures to put up numbers similar to his time in Miami, where he averaged 83.5 receptions for 1,114 yards and 4.5 touchdowns. Look for the touchdown numbers to improve.
Hester, Bennett and Knox will battle for the starting spot opposite Marshall but none of them will be solid fantasy options in 2012.
By: Dave Stringer — February 3, 2012 @ 9:00 pm
1. The rumblings out of San Francisco are that the 49ers will pursue a veteran wide receiver this offseason to replenish a group that was relying heavily on rookie 6th round pick Kyle Williams by season’s end. The team’s decision to wait for the second tier of signings in free agency allowed them to sign former Jet Braylon Edwards to a discounted one-year deal worth $1-million plus bonuses seemed like an astute decision at the time but Edwards bombed out in San Francisco due to injuries and ineffectiveness, catching just 15 passes and failing to find the end zone in nine games before finally being released. Josh Morgan, whose season ended with a fractured right leg, and Ted Ginn Jr. are unrestricted free agents at season’s end and the team would like to re-sign them but both players are better suited to supporting roles, as is Williams. Although former 1st round pick Michael Crabtree enjoyed his best season with 72 receptions for 874 yards and four touchdowns (including 61 receptions for 742 yards and all four of his touchdowns over his final 11 games), the 49ers may have concluded that Crabtree will never be a bonafide number one wide receiver and that his lack of chemistry with quarterback Alex Smith is evidence of that.
 Finley: Franchise tag dilemma 2. In Green Bay, the Packers will be faced with a number of difficult decisions this offseason due to the combination of their salary cap situation and the pending free agency of a number of key players as well as backup quarterback Matt Flynn. While the Packers would clearly prefer to avoid losing Flynn without compensation, they are in a bind because they need to maintain the franchise tag designation in order to ensure Jermichael Finley’s return at tight end. Finley’s negotiating position is clearly enhanced knowing that Flynn will leave as a free agent unless Finley is signed prior to the deadline for using the franchise tag. In addition, using the franchise tag on Flynn would cost the team $14-million against the cap, forcing the team to release several players to get under the cap and restricting their ability to sign players such as running back Ryan Grant and center Scott Wells. Look for general manager Ted Thompson to end up using the franchise tag on Finley, a talented but somewhat enigmatic player who Thompson is likely reluctant to sign to a long-term deal based on his performance this past season, and allow Grant to leave unless he accepts a major salary reduction in 2012. Other cap casualties could include left tackle Chad Clifton, wide receiver Donald Driver, safety Nick Collins and cornerback Charles Woodson.
3. The Saints face a similar dilemma with quarterback Drew Brees, wide receiver Marques Colston and guard Carl Nicks all eligible for unrestricted free agency. Clearly, Brees will receive the franchise tag if he doesn’t sign a long-term deal but the quarterback also recognizes that he stands to benefit both on and off the field if he avoids being tagged. With the tag likely to be in the $14.5-million range, Brees figures to earn more on a yearly basis if he signs long term as well as securing roughly $50 million guaranteed in addition to allowing the team to use the franchise tag on Colston or Nicks. Of those two, Nicks is most likely to be with a new team in 2012. Having signed fellow guard Jahri Evans to a seven-year, $57 million deal in 2010 and with Nicks worthy of a similar deal, the team may well decide against allocating over $15-million in cap space per year to their starting guards.
4. Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson figures to be one of the most sought after free agents at his position unless he is signed to a long-term contract or receives Buffalo’s franchise tag. Johnson has been a revelation for the Bills, with the former 7th round pick becoming the first player in team history to top 1,000 receiving yards in consecutive seasons and just the third player with 70 receptions in two straight seasons. However, given Johnson’s off the field comments and on-field issues and controversies, the Bills seem reluctant to lock him up long term. With the franchise tag for wide receivers down to $9.4-million from $11.4-million in 2011, look for the Bills to end up franchising Johnson and using the 2012 season to gauge whether he warrants a long term commitment.
5. Another elite AFC East wide receiver is scheduled for unrestricted free agency this season in the Patriots Wes Welker. Unlike Johnson, there is virtually no chance of New England allowing Welker to hit the open market. Although the Patriots and Welker’s representatives have been unable to come to an agreement throughout the season, there is no denying his importance in the Patriots passing game on short and intermediate routes. However, Welker will turn 31 prior to the start of the 2012 season and the combination of his age and size are likely causing the Patriots to hedge on giving him a contract of more than three or four years in length. If the two sides fail to come to an agreement, look for Welker to receive the franchise tag and return to New England, a scenario that he seems to think is likely given his recent comments about expecting to be back with the team in 2012.
6. The off-season is obviously a period where comments from league officials are just as likely to be misleading, as they are to be informative and where each piece of information is likely to be overanalyzed. This week’s news that Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald was planning on having dinner with Colts quarterback Peyton Manning falls into the latter category. Just because two players are having dinner is hardly cause for jumping to the assumption that they are going to be teammates in 2012.
7. Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli and new head coach Romeo Crennel told fans this week that the team would bring in competition for incumbent starting quarterback Matt Cassel for the 2012 season. That revelation was a far cry from Crennel’s assertion when he took that job that Cassel was the team’s starter. What gave rise to the change in thinking is irrelevant and the comments seem to indicate that Kyle Orton being re-signed is much more of a possibility than was thought after Crennel was made head coach. Since Orton is unlikely to be handed a starting position by another team, it won’t be a surprise if he agrees to come back to Kansas City with the hope of unseating Cassel.
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