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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — January 20, 2012 @ 12:34 pm
1. Jets running back LaDainian Tomlinson mused about retirement last week and if his comments this week about the team’s organization are any indication, he is either headed for retirement or to another team for the 2012 season. Tomlinson let loose on the team’s dysfunction, suggesting the team’s chemistry was as bad as he had ever seen, that he doubted quarterback Mark Sanchez and wide receiver Santonio Hollmes could coexist, that Holmes needed to work on being a leader and that while he liked playing for head coach Rex Ryan, he wished the combative coach would tone down his style. Having used 4th round picks in each of the last two drafts on running backs (Joe McKnight and Bilal Powell), don’t look for LT back in a Jets uniform in 2012.
2. Having witnessed left tackle Doug Free struggle mightily to protect quarterback Tony Romo’s blindside in 2011, reports indicate the Cowboys are considering moving Free to right tackle. Rookie 1st round pick Tyron Smith played that position this season but Dallas head coach Jason Garrett may want to move Smith to left tackle, given his superior athleticism.
3. With the Packers loss this week to the Giants, the top seed in the NFC has now lost their first playoff game in four of the past five seasons. This trend follows a string of 17 years in which the top seed in the conference won their first playoff game.
 Nicks: 1a in the Giants passing attack. 4. Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks has been dominant in his team’s wins over the Falcons and Packers, reminding fans of the superlative performance that Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald had in his team’s run to the Super Bowl during the 2008 season. Having topped 100 receiving yards and scoring twice in each game, Nicks becomes just the third player since the Super Bowl has been awarded to accomplish that feat, joining Fitzgerald and Jerry Rice.
5. Sticking with the Giants and their situation at wide receiver, Nicks’ performance has made a mockery of numerous fantasy pundits and NFL writers who spent the week prior to the wild card round claiming that the Giants had two number one wide receivers and debating the merits of which player would have a superior season in 2012. While Victor Cruz had an amazing season (setting a Giants record for most receiving yards with 1536, good enough for third in the league, there is little doubt that he benefitted playing alongside Nicks, who often drew coverage away from him. In addition, while Nicks played in 15 games this season, he was banged up regularly and was as healthy as he has been all year when the playoffs opened.
6. Looks like karma is working in favor of disposed Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo. While Spagnuolo enjoyed little success in St. Louis, compiling a 10-38 record in three seasons, he was a solid defensive coach who attempted to build the team’s roster based on his four pillars: faith, character, core values and team first. With Jeff Fisher taking over for Spagnuolo and the hiring of Gregg Williams to lead the team’s defense, a vacancy at defensive coordinator in New Orleans was created. Spagnuolo will fill that role in 2012. Interestingly, the only truly solid performance the Rams put together this past season came in a 31-21 upset win over the Saints, a game in which they produced two turnovers and six sacks in limiting the Saints to just 283 total yards.
7. Looking forward to the conference championship games this weekend, one key stat to remember is that the Ravens are 7-0 against playoff teams thus far in 2011.
By: Dave Stringer — January 12, 2012 @ 2:38 pm
 Sanchez is under off-season fire. 1. In what seems like a post-season ritual, anonymous Jets players have used the early part of the off-season to rip the play of the team’s starting quarterback. Brett Favre got the treatment after his only season with the team, roasted by his teammates for his performance and work habits although it was well known that he played most of the season with an injured throwing shoulder that affected his arm strength, velocity and accuracy. Mark Sanchez got the Favre treatment this week with reports that his teammates felt he didn’t work hard enough, was coddled by the organization and that they would prefer the team acquire a veteran signal caller (with Peyton Manning mentioned as a possibility) to either challenge Sanchez or take over as the team’s starting quarterback. As was the case with Favre, few of them were willing to mention that Sanchez had led the team to two AFC Championship game appearances during his three years in the league and came within a game of qualifying for the post-season this year despite getting little help from top wide receiver, Santonio Holmes, who clearly quit on the team. While Sanchez has not developed as quickly as the team would like and remains maddeningly inconsistent, the mercurial Holmes was at least as much to blame for the team’s poor offensive showing.
2. Sticking with the Manning to Jets conjecture, that possibility seems remote for several reasons. First off, while the Colts have given every indication that they plan to use the first overall pick in the draft to acquire Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, they have also stated that Manning will return to the team in 2012 provided he is healthy enough to play. In addition, recent reports indicate that both Manning and the Colts are willing to renegotiate his contract, pushing a $28-million option payment currently due prior to the start of the league’s new year to a later date. Taken together, this would seem to indicate that the odds are strong that Manning will be a Colt in 2012. Even if that fails to transpire, a Manning to the Jets scenario is unlikely. The Rex Ryan led Jets have a personality that seems ill-suited to Manning’s buttoned down, business-like style. In addition, given the dissension on the team, it is easy to question why Manning would come to New York when he would likely have at least a half-dozen other suitors to choose from. Finally, having played his entire career in a dome stadium, he would likely choose to suit up for another team that plays in a dome or in a warm weather location.
3. Despite enjoying a solid four-year run together in Atlanta, Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Mike Smith were put on notice this week by owner Arthur Blank that he expects the team to win a Super Bowl. The Falcons have put together four consecutive winning seasons under Dimitroff’s and Smith’s leadership, including qualifying for the post-season three times. Further, they have made several astute personnel decisions including the decision to draft quarterback Matt Ryan with the third pick in their first draft together in 2008. However, they have failed to win a post-season game and Smith was heavily criticized after the team’s 24-2 playoff loss to the Giants for his decision to gamble twice on fourth down with the team in field goal range as well as the play calls on those gambles, one of which included a quarterback sneak with an empty backfield. Blank stopped short of saying that it was Super Bowl or bust for his solid managerial duo but the implication was clear – more is expected in Atlanta in 2012.
4. With first-year offensive coordinator Jay Gruden receiving interest as a head coaching candidate, the Bengals moved this week to lock him by agreeing to a three-year contract extension. Despite having to start a rookie quarterback in Andy Dalton and use another rookie, the fourth overall selection in the draft in A.J. Green, as the team’s leading wide receiver, the Gruden-led offense finished 21st in total offense and 18th in total points. Considering the Bengals schedule included two games against both Pittsburgh and Baltimore (the first and third ranked defenses in the league), those results are more impressive than they appear. The Gruden signing is further evidence that the Cincinnati organization is now prepared to move aggressively in building a perennial contender in the difficult AFC North division.
5. Look for Buffalo to use the draft or free agency to help bulk up the depth chart at wide receiver. Steve Johnson, the team’s leading wide receiver in each of the past two seasons, is an unrestricted free agent but the Bills have been in discussions with his agent regarding a long-term contract. Look for Johnson to sign long-term or for the Bills to place the franchise tag on him. Opposite Johnson, the Bills had a plethora of options in 2011 but emerged to claim the starting position. Marcus Easley, the team’s 2010 4th round pick, has excellent size and speed but missed the season with a head ailment. David Nelson has solid size at 6’5” and excels in the slot but struggles on the outside. Donald Jones struggled with injuries and consistency and seems destined for a backup.
6. In Arizona, Kevin Kolb suffered through a miserable first season in the dessert and the word out of the Cardinals organization is that backup John Skelton will be given at least a cursory opportunity to win the job in 2012. Kolb figures to get a significant lead in that battle given his lucrative contract and the fact the team gave up former 1st round pick Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as well as a 2nd round pick in order to acquire his services. However, his 2-6 record in 2011 pales in comparison to Skelton’s 6-2. If Skelton improves his accuracy and Kolb continues his inability to stay healthy, Skelton figures to get an opportunity to claim the starting job, if not in training camp, then at some point in 2012.
By: Dave Stringer — January 5, 2012 @ 4:02 pm
1. The head-coaching carousel began twisting this week with the information and misinformation campaigns in full swing. Of all the big name candidates, Jeff Fisher is the only coach that is a virtual guarantee to be coaching somewhere in 2012 given that Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, Brian Billick et al seem content to continue their lucrative careers in television without the daily grind that comes with leading a team. Fisher’s first stop was in Miami with a tour of the team’s facilities and a helicopter ride on offer to woo the long time Tennessee coach. Prior to Fisher’s trip to St. Louis, the rumor mill was hot that Miami was his top choice. He wasn’t sold on Rams quarterback Sam Bradford and Miami had the obvious benefits of Florida over Missouri, especially in terms of attracting free agents. The common thread amongst all those rumors was to increase Fisher’s leverage with respect to contract terms and organizational clout. However, while the Miami and St. Louis organizations are clearly hot for Fisher, the fact remains that several high profile, recycled head coaches have failed in recent seasons (witness Mike Shanahan’s struggles in Washington) and Fisher compiled a solid, yet unspectacular record of 142-120 while in Tennessee.
2. Raiders head coach Hue Jackson went off on his squad after his team’s disappointing 38-26 loss to the Chargers ended Oakland’s season. With Denver losing to the Chiefs, an Oakland win would have propelled them into the playoffs and, at least partially, justified Jackson’s decision to trade the team’s 1st round pick in the upcoming draft and a 2nd round pick in 2012 (which would have been upgraded to a 1st round pick had the Raiders qualified for the postseason) for quarterback Carson Palmer. When owner Al Davis passed away this season, Jackson filled the vacuum left behind and essentially took control of the organization. However, with the Raiders compiling a 4-2 record prior to the trade and going just 4-6 with Palmer in the lineup, Jackson’s decision-making is certainly being called into question within the organization, making his comments this week that he will become even more involved within the organization seem almost ludicrous. Look for owner Mark Davis to reel in Jackson’s authority and install a general manager with the power to either oversee Jackson or at least provide a strong counterbalance to his spontaneous, some might say reckless, decision-making.
3. Staying in the Bay area, San Francisco head coach Jim Harbaugh stated the obvious this week when he reportedly informed quarterback Alex Smith that he intends to re-sign him in the offseason. Credit Harbaugh with making the unpopular decision this past offseason to stick with the former first overall selection in the draft despite the cries for change coming from the team’s fan base. Smith had done little during his first six years in the league to justify Harbaugh’s faith in him but the former Stanford coach justified his decision based on game tape and Smith having had to deal with numerous offensive coordinators. That faith was rewarded with Smith having his finest season as a pro, setting career-highs in completion percentage (61.4%), passing yards (3,150) and rushing yards (179) while throwing just five interceptions against 17 touchdowns. It will be interesting to see what type of contract the team is willing to lavish on Smith, with rookie 2nd round pick Colin Kaepernick waiting in the wings. Look for the 49ers to re-sign Smith to a modest, four or five-year contract.
4. Reports out of Chicago indicate that quarterback Jay Cutler went to head coach Lovie Smith to inform him that he preferred that offensive coordinator Mike Martz, whose contract was up, not be re-signed. Smith agreed and the Bears will now look to find another coordinator after two up-and-down years with Martz calling the shots. While Martz may not have been Cutler’s favorite, his play calling and coaching helped Cutler pad his statistics given Martz’ propensity for throwing the football. Unfortunately for both, Chicago simply didn’t possess an offensive line solid enough to pass protect for the five and seven-step drops Martz prefers or wide receivers skilled and/or fast enough to run the deep patterns his offense is predicated on. In retrospect, Smith’s decision to hire Martz was a poor one since the team was intent on attempting to turn Devin Hester into their top receiver and going with mid to low-round picks (such as Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox) at the wide receiver position.
 It's another off-season of uncertainty for Vincent Jackson. 5. As any fantasy football owner with a modicum of experience knows, Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan is renowned for his unexplainable decisions at the running back position with playing time doled out based on no consistent formula. While it was encouraging to hear the Redskins head coach endorse both of his rookie runners this week (4th round pick Roy Helu and 6th round pick Evan Royster), look for the team’s running back situation to be a fantasy mess once again in 2012. Helu had a number of solid outings but couldn’t stay healthy while Royster didn’t even make the team coming out of the preseason. It seems highly unlikely that Shanahan will hand the running back reigns over to a pair of second year players, meaning unrestricted free agent Tim Hightower, whose season ended after he suffered a torn ACL in Week 7, is likely to be brought back. If Hightower or another veteran is added to the roster, look for a committee approach at the position once again in 2012.
6. While San Diego owner Dean Spanos made the surprising decision to retain both general manager A.J. Smith and head coach Norv Turner, there is a decent possibility that there could be major changes in the team’s group of receivers. Vincent Jackson, the team’s top wide receiver for several years, is a free agent once again and may want to move on given his unhappiness with his contract situation over each of the past two off-seasons. If the Chargers decide against offering Jackson a long-term deal, they may decide to place the franchise tag on him to secure his services for the 2012 season. Malcom Floyd is under contract for next season and played well opposite Jackson but has been injury-prone, missing nine games over the past two seasons. Slot receiver Patrick Crayton is unlikely to return given the presence of rookie 3rd round pick Vincent Brown, who played well when given an opportunity. At tight end, Antonio Gates suffered through another injury-marred season and may not be retained given the $10.4-million he is due to be paid next season.
By: Dave Stringer — December 30, 2011 @ 11:08 am
1. With the regular season about to end, several coaches around the league will have their fate decided over the next week with several pink slips expected to be handed out this coming Monday. Jacksonville (Jack Del Rio), Kansas City (Todd Haley) and Miami (Tony Sparano) fired their opening day coaches in midseason and there are four more potential firings. Let’s start in San Diego where Norv Turner has been rumored to be a coaching casualty for weeks. Perennial contenders and 2007 AFC Conference finalists in Turner’s initial season, he was not able to build on early success and with this week’s 38-10 blowout loss to the Lions, the Chargers will miss the postseason for a second consecutive season. That is not an acceptable result to owner Dean Spanos given the team’s talented personnel and Turner will almost certainly pay the price on Monday.
2.In St. Louis, the rumors have been flying wildly about who will replace Steve Spagnolo but there are just as many reports that owner Stan Kroenke will stick with him for a fourth season in 2012. With a 10-37 record during his three-year stay and this year’s 2-13 record heading into a Week 17 matchup against the 49ers, the numbers would indicate that this should be Spagnolo’s last season in St. Louis. However, injuries to key personnel have decimated the Rams at quarterback, along the offensive line and in the defensive backfield which may prompt Kroenke to bring Spagnolo back for the final year of his contract in 2012. If Spagnolo is let go, he will be a hot defensive coordinator option with the Eagles and Giants the front runners to secure his services.
3. While Spagnolo appears to be the head coach most likely to be fired outside of Turner, the Bucs Raheem Morris has earned that distinction. After finishing with a surprisingly solid 10-6 record in his second season as the team’s head coach, the Bucs have slumped badly in 2011, currently sitting at 4-11 and in the midst of a nine game losing streak. A closer look reveals that the Bucs 2010 record was more than a bit misleading, with five wins of three points or less, a schedule that included the weak NFC West and just one win against a quality opponent (a Week 17 win against a New Orleans team that had nothing to play for and pulled several starters in the fourth quarter). Look for general manager Mark Dominik to jettison Morris and the Bucs to move in another direction. With a talented young roster, the Tampa Bay job should attract plenty of solid coaching candidates.
4. Other coaches on the hot seat include Indy’s Jim Caldwell, the Eagles Andy Reid and the Giants Tom Coughlin. Caldwell has been hamstrung by a squad that was devoid of talent behind Peyton Manning and his future seems tied to Manning’s. If Manning returns, the team will likely attempt to re-sign many of their veteran free agents and bring Caldwell back in an attempt to make a Super Bowl run. While Reid has taken plenty of criticism for his team’s poor season, he is the league’s most tenured coach and his comments in recent weeks seem to indicate that he is secure for the 2012 season. The Giants have been perhaps the league’s most inconsistent team in 2011 but can reach the post-season with a win this week in a home game against a Cowboys squad whose quarterback will be playing with a bum throwing hand. If Coughlin’s Giants squeak into the postseason, he likely secures his return for next season.
 AP won't be a first-rounder in 2012. 5. Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson suffered a gruesome knee injury this week against the Redskins, tearing both the anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments in his left knee. While the Vikings have said they expect their star running back to be ready for the 2012 season opener, that assumption may be a bit unrealistic given that he will have a recovery period of just over eight months, a short period of time for that type of injury. Peterson is a possibility to open next season on the physically unable to perform list which would require him to miss at least the first six games of the season. Even if he is ready by opening day, he will not be the same player he was prior to the injury for at least the 2012 season. Based on that prognosis, Peterson should rank no better than an upper tier RB2 for next year and Toby Gerhart merits consideration as an early season flex option in larger leagues.
6. Jets running back LaDainian Tomlinson announced this week that he may retire at the conclusion of this season. A free agent at season’s end, Tomlinson has assumed a traditional backup role to starter Shonn Greene after being used in more of a timeshare role during his initial season in New York (2010). With just 224 rushing yards to go along with 38 receptions for 426 yards, Tomlinson ceased being a useful flex option for fantasy purposes. Having spent 4th round draft picks on Joe McKnight in 2010 and Bilal Powell this season, the Jets seem unlikely to spend a high draft pick in the 2012 draft to find Greene’s backup for next season. Dynasty leaguers should consider McKnight the frontrunner to assume that role although he did little as a rookie and has struggled to run the ball effectively during his first two years in the league. In the only start of his career, he carried the ball 32 times for 158 yards against Buffalo in Week 17 of the 2010 season.
By: Dave Stringer — December 23, 2011 @ 11:25 am
 Are these the final days for Manning in Indy? 1. In what has to rank as a major surprise, Colts owner Jim Irsay revealed that if Peyton Manning regains his health, the future Hall of Fame quarterback will be back with Indianapolis for the 2012 season. At the same time, Irsay also said that if there was a quarterback in the draft, the Colts would not hesitate to draft one. Irsay’s comments are the clearest signal yet that the Colts will take the high road with their long time star quarterback and draft Stanford’s Andrew Luck if Indianapolis finishes the season as the league’s last ranked team. That possibility seemed a foregone conclusion two weeks ago but wins over Tennessee and Houston have given the Colts a chance to finish ahead of the Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams. If the Colts win at Jacksonville in Week 17 and the Rams and Vikings both lose their last two games, the Colts will lose the opportunity to select Luck. If Irsay is to be taken at his word, there are only two scenarios in which Manning does not suit up for Indianapolis next year. First, he doesn’t regain his health. Second, he requests to be released or traded to another team, paving the way for Luck or another rookie quarterback to start a new era in Indianapolis in 2012.
2. With the firing of Todd Haley in Kansas City, defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel took over as the team’s interim coach and was given little to no chance of succeeding Haley as the team’s next head coach. However, an upset win last week over the previously undefeated Green Bay Packers and some help from other teams has given the Chiefs an opportunity to win the AFC West division crown for a second consecutive year. If the Chiefs beat the Raiders at home this week and the Broncos lose to the Bills, next week’s Chiefs-Broncos game in Denver could decide the division winner provided San Diego does not win both of their final games (road games in Detroit and Oakland). If the Chiefs somehow pull that off, Crennel could be the head man in Kansas City in 2012.
3. Bills fans in Buffalo couldn’t have been too pleased when owner Ralph Wilson announced this week that the team is in talks to continue playing games in Toronto in upcoming seasons. While the Bills haven’t received much, if any, of a home field advantage when playing in Toronto, the arrangement has been a lucrative one for the small market team with Buffalo receiving a staggering $78-million for allowing Toronto to host eight games. If Rogers Communications, which hosts the Toronto games, is willing to approach the $10-million per game mark, Wilson will almost certainly take them up on their offer. In his recap of the season, Wilson also indicated that he was pleased with the play of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick but that he needed help on offense, particularly at wide receiver. Those comments seem to indicate that Fitzpatrick will lead the team for at least the next few years and that wide receiver Steve Johnson, a free agent at season’s end, will be back in Buffalo on a long term contract extension or as a franchise player.
4. Browns head coach Pat Shurmur refused to endorse Colt McCoy as his starting quarterback when he returns from the concussion he suffered against Pittsburgh in Week 14. That means Seneca Wallace could finish the season as the team’s starter, leading the team this week against Baltimore and in Week 17 against the Steelers. If that transpires, McCoy will not have another chance this season to prove to Browns management that he should be the team’s starter in 2012. With general manager Tom Heckert stating that the team has seen enough of McCoy to evaluate him and McCoy showing only minor improvement over his 2010 rookie season, his only hope of entering next season as the team’s starter is if Heckert and the team’s management determines the lack of playmakers on offense is what is held McCoy back from making a big leap forward in 2011.
5. The Cardinals quietly placed linebacker Joey Porter on injured reserve this week, ending his season and likely signaling the end of the career of one of the league’s most colorful players. Porter suffered a knee injury that kept him out of much of this season but Arizona has been pleased with the player of young linebackers such as Sam Acho and O’Brien Schofield, making Porter’s return in 2012 unlikely. He had stints in Pittsburgh and Miami before signing with Arizona prior to the 2010 season and accumulated 98 sacks during his 13-year career.
6. Rams running back Steven Jackson has been remarkably consistent despite playing for a St. Louis team that has been consistently bad since he entered the league in the 2004 draft. Aside from his rookie season when Jackson split carries with Marshall Faulk, he has topped 1,000 rushing yards every season and is on the verge of his seventh consecutive season of reaching that plateau, sitting just 34 yards shy of the mark heading into this week’s game in Pittsburgh. If Jackson reaches the 1,000 yard mark for a seventh consecutive season, he will become only the seventh player in league history to accomplish that feat.
7. Bills second-year running back C.J. Spiller was on the verge of being labeled a bust prior to his improved play since taking over for the injured Fred Jackson beginning in Week 11. However, head coach Chan Gailey ended any speculation that Spiller might take over as the team’s starter next season, stating that Spiller lacked Jackson’s size and that he wasn’t a 20 plus carry a week player. Although Spiller won’t unseat Jackson in the starting line up, his run of solid performances ensures that he will be a solid flex option in 2012.
By: Dave Stringer — December 22, 2011 @ 1:54 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Rex Grossman, Redskins
Should you get to be Moving Up (an acclaimed distinction to be sure) after a 15 of 24, 183 yard, one touchdown, two-interception performance? No way, Jose. But this isn’t a normal week and with fantasy finals on tap; those in desperate need of a quarterback could do worse than Grossman. The two picks last week against the Giants weren’t bad ones and Grossman has topped 20 fantasy points in three of his last five outings. The Vikings 29th ranked pass defense comes to Washington this week and that’s a tasty match up.
Moving Down
 Too risky to start in Week 16. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
If Big Ben owners weren’t done in by his horrendous performance this week against the 49ers (330 yards and no touchdowns isn’t bad unless you play in a league that penalizes turnovers of which he had four last week), then you might be looking for options this week. With the Rams coming to Pittsburgh, the Steelers could probably start their mascot and come up with a win. There are whispers that Roethlisberger will not start but even if he does, expect Pittsburgh to play conservatively and yank him if (when?) they get a big lead.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Reggie Bush, Dolphins
Dolphins management told us that Bush would be the featured back in 2011 and I guess we should have believed them. With 203 rushing yards this week against the Bills, he is just 16 yards shy of the first 1,000 rushing yard season of his six-year career and not many saw that coming. Bush is on pace to finish the season with 1,337 total yards and eight touchdowns and is currently the 12th ranked fantasy running back and will finish in the top ten since he will likely surpass both Fred Jackson and Matt Forte, who are both injured. With the Patriots and Jets up next, expect a strong finish to the season from Bush.
C.J. Spiller, Bills
I basically crapped all over Spiller when Fred Jackson was lost for the season but the 2010 1st round pick has looked reasonably decent over the past three weeks, topping double digit fantasy points twice. This week against the Dolphins, Spiller had the best game of his career, setting career highs in rushing yards (91 on 12 carries) and receiving yards (76 on nine receptions) while scoring twice. The Bills aren’t overworking Spiller (he has topped 14 carries just once since taking over for Jackson) but he certainly made the most of his touches this week.
Kahlil Bell, Bears
I put him here last week due to his modest production and he surprised on the high side this week, gaining 65 yards on 15 carries and 43 yards and a touchdown on five receptions. The Bears played from behind against the Seahawks so that helped increase Bell’s playing time but it’s not like Marion Barber is a chump as a receiver, having caught 52 passes during the 2008 season. The other reason he played more is that he looked good the previous two weeks, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. If you’re desperate for a flex, Bell’s not a bad option.
Donald Brown, Colts
Joseph Addai starts but Brown is getting the majority of the work and a significant amount of carries on a regular basis. Since Week 9, Brown has 15 or more touches in five or six games, getting just ten touches during Week 14’s loss to the Ravens where the Colts played from behind. He has hit double digit fantasy points in three or his last four games, scoring touchdowns in three of those games. At this point, Brown ranks as a low end RB2 or decent flex option and with president Bill Polian excluding running back from the list of team needs, he shapes up as the favorite to open the 2012 season as the team’s starter at the position.
Lance Ball, Broncos
A brutal fumble by Ball this week cost the Broncos big time against the Patriots but he managed a very respectable fantasy performance with 64 rushing yards, 41 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns on a healthy 13 touches. Willis McGahee’s hamstring isn’t expected to keep him out this week against the Bills but he seems to pull up lame plenty and the Bills have a run defense (ranked 29th) that’s been generous to opposing running backs.
Moving Down
Adrian Peterson, Vikings
What a kick in the groin for AP owners this week. Back in the starting line up and facing a middling Saints run defense, Peterson owners were expecting a big day but the Vikings coaching staff had other plans, giving the rock to the talented running back just ten times. He was productive, gaining 60 yards on those carries, but he wasn’t used in the passing game and backup Toby Gerhart chipped in two receiving touchdowns. Ouch. Maybe the Vikes are protecting their investment with the season already a write off.
Michael Turner, Falcons
Turner was decent this week against the Jaguars with 61 yards and a touchdown but he hasn’t put up a great performance since Week 6 against the Panthers. A combination of a groin injury and simply wearing down late in the season has led to a decline in his performance over the past four weeks. Despite some decent matchups (Vikings, Texans, Panthers, Jaguars), Turner has just 241 yards and a touchdown on 73 carries over the last four weeks while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per carry.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
Thomas gets the Moving Up designation two weeks in a row and his last season performance should have him Moving Up the 2012 rankings at wide receiver. He is clearly Denver’s number one wide receiver (sorry, Eric Decker owners, but this one was easy to see coming) with a whopping 33 targets over the Broncos last three games. This week against the Patriots, Thomas caught seven more balls for 116 yards, bringing his three game totals to 18 receptions for 338 yards and three touchdowns. Up next are the Bills and their leaky secondary in Week 16.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
At this point in his career, DHB isn’t nearly the enigma he was over the first two years of his career. The enigma is Raiders head coach Hue Jackson and his inconsistent use of his talented third year wide receiver. This week against the Lions, Heyward-Bey was a big part of the game plan with the Raiders feeding him the ball on shorter patterns with Detroit’s cornerbacks playing soft coverage and also taking a couple of deep shots. End result: eight receptions for 155 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. That was the best game of his young career but it won’t be a surprise if he barely sees the ball in a must win game for Oakland in Week 16 against the Chiefs.
Julio Jones, Falcons
Looks like the hammy is fine. And, no, I don’t mean the Christmas ham. Okay, that was awful but it’s good to be generous at this time of the year. And, yeah, I know it was the back that was the issue with Jones this week. Anyway, he took advantage of a truly awful Jaguars secondary this week, catching five of six targets for 85 yards and a score, one week after lighting up the Panthers for 104 yards and a pair of scores. Absolutely a must start in all leagues with the Saints (27th ranked pass defense) and Bucs (25th) on tap.
Steve Smith, Panthers
After a four-game drought where Smith caught 15 passes for 174 yards and a score, he has come on over the last two weeks, topping double digits in games against the Falcons and Texans. Smith and quarterback Cam Newton are back on the same page with Smith catching 11 of his 15 targets over the last two games for 207 yards and a touchdown. The Bucs 25th ranked defense is on tap in Week 16 so another double-digit fantasy performance seems likely.
Moving Down
Reggie Wayne, Colts
Wayne has been a huge disappointment in 2011, struggling to be productive without Peyton Manning at quarterback for the Colts. Barring a near miracle, he will finish with fewer than 1,000 yards for the first time since the 2003 season, ending a streak of seven consecutive seasons above that plateau. He is staggering towards the end of the season, with just 129 yards on 12 receptions over the last three games, although he did manage to find the end zone this week against the Titans. Unfortunately for Wayne owners, the Colts finish the 2011 season at home against the Texans and in Jacksonville against the 2nd and 4th rated pass defenses in the league. To be fair, the Jaguars offer some hope given their banged up secondary but that Week 17 match up won’t be of much use in most fantasy leagues.
Austin Pettis, Rams
Dynasty leaguers take note. Pettis made a small amount of noise this year as a 3rd round pick out of Boise State and with Brandon Lloyd a free agent at season’s end and no other receiver having stepped up to claim a spot in the starting line up, Pettis had a chance to compete for a starting spot in 2012. However, a four game suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs ensures Pettis backup status remains in tact for next season.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Brent Celek, Eagles
Do you get the feeling the Eagles are utilizing more screens to help keep Michael Vick happy? This week against the blitz happy Jets, Celek set a career high with 156 receiving yards this week on five receptions while catching a 26-yard touchdown. Since being reintroduced to the game plan eight weeks ago, Celek has 558 receiving yards. Philadelphia gets Dallas this week and look for plenty of screens as the Eagles try to slow down Cowboys pass rushing linebacker DeMarcus Ware.
Moving Down
Jason Witten, Cowboys
Witten owners should maybe rejoice. I had Calvin Johnson Moving Down last week based on a string of subpar performances and all he did was have the best game of his career with 214 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns, including the game winning score in the final minute against the Raiders. I love when that happens! Witten was decent this week against a porous Bucs secondary, catching four passes for 77 yards, but over his past four games, he has 16 receptions for 179 yards. That’s 4.5 points per game, folks, not what you’re looking for from your stud tight end when the fantasy matchups count the most.
By: Dave Stringer — December 16, 2011 @ 4:10 pm
Big Ben will be riding high in 2012. 1. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has put together a solid fantasy season in 2011, throwing for 3,526 yards and 21 touchdowns with just 11 interceptions in 13 games. While he hasn’t run the ball as much or as well as in previous years (just 70 yards on 30 carries with no touchdowns), Roethlisberger’s passing prowess has propelled him to the number nine ranking amongst quarterbacks and that ranking could go even higher in 2012. In starting wide receivers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown and third year player Emmanuel Sanders, the Steelers will enter next season with their most dynamic group of receivers in years. Wallace is averaging 17.1 yard per catch while Brown is at a healthy 16.8 per reception and Sanders is a player the team is high on but who has struggled with injuries in 2011. That trio and Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arian’s preference for the passing game bode well for Roethlisberger’s prospects in 2012.
2. In Kansas City, the Chiefs did the expected and fired head coach Todd Haley with three games left in the season. Although Haley led the Chiefs to the AFC West division title in 2010 and Kansas City struggled with injuries to numerous key players this season (Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, Tony Moeaki and Matt Cassel), there were whispers that he did not get along well with general manager Scott Piolo and that friction would eventually lead to his departure. While Haley was hamstrung by injuries to key players, he was also responsible for a preseason regimen that left the Chiefs ill-prepared to start the season and his decision to continue playing Tyler Palko at quarterback even when the evidence was clear that he was not a capable NFL starter. As for Pioli, he doesn’t escape Haley’s firing unscathed as his personnel decisions (some of them clearly influenced by Haley such as the signing of wide receiver Steve Breaston and retaining Palko as a backup) have either backfired or not resulted in the production expected from high-salaries players or players taken early in the draft. Defensive ends Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey were both top five selections that have failed to live up to expectations and running back Dexter McCluster was taken in the 2nd round but has done little to justify being taken so high. Who Pioli chooses as the team’s next head coach will clearly be the deciding factor in how long he remains in Kansas City.
3. Sticking with that theme, the apparent front-runner to take over as the Chiefs next head coach is former Broncos head coach and current Rams offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Pioli is familiar with McDaniels from their time together in New England and was the Patriots offensive coordinator when Cassel started 15 games for an injured Tom Brady in 2008. Also working in McDaniels’ favor is the Broncos production on offense with Kyle Orton starting at quarterback while he was head coach. However, McDaniels has been an abysmal failure in St. Louis this season as the Rams are last in the league in points per game with just 11.7 per contest and quarterback Sam Bradford appears to have regressed. The Rams have scored just 12 offensive touchdowns in 13 games this season although they have suffered numerous significant injuries on offense. While McDaniels has struggled with some questionable game plans in 2011, look for him to be hired as Kansas City’s new head coach based on the strength of his relationship with Pioli.
4. The Redskins placed starting safety LaRon Landry on injured reserve this week with an Achilles tendon injury and there is speculation in Washington that he may have played his last game with the team. He is a free agent at season’s end and while the Redskins do not have an obvious replacement, they may not be willing to shell out a substantial contract to a player that has missed 15 games over the last two seasons. Landry is clearly a talented player but he has not developed into the playmaker Washington envisioned when they made him the sixth selection in 2007, failing to top two interceptions, two forced fumbles or one and a half sacks in any given season. Having doled out a lucrative contract to former Rams safety O.J. Atogwe this past offseason and with several glaring holes on offense, it will be a surprise if the Redskins sign Landry to a contract this offseason that makes him one of the league’s top paid safeties.
5. Another player likely looking for a new home in 2012 is current Bengals starting running back Cedric Benson. Benson has played well since joining Cincinnati in 2008, gaining 747 rushing yards in just 12 games that season, topping 1,000 yards in 2009 and 2010 and likely to achieve that feat again this season with 883 rushing yards with three games remaining. However, Benson is a free agent at season’s end and the team, armed with two 1st round selections and possibly next season as well (depending on the conditional pick in the Carson Palmer trade) may decide to draft a more dynamic running back, rounding out a solid nucleus of talented, young players on offense including quarterback Andy Dalton, wide receiver A.J. Green and tight end Jermaine Gresham.
6. The Chargers running game has remained productive despite a flurry of injuries across the team’s offensive line that have resulted in two starters missing significant periods of time. Left tackle Marcus McNeill and left guard Kris Dielman, both former Pro Bowlers, are both on injured reserve while center Nick Hardwick has played hurt and right guard Louis Vasquez has missed two games. With McNeill suffering a neck injury and Hardwick a free agent at season’s end, it is possible that the team will lose two Pro Bowl quality players prior to the beginning of the 2012 season. The 2012 fantasy prospects of quarterback Philip Rivers and running back Ryan Mathews will both take a hit if both starting lineman have new teams next season.
7. The Packers are clearly the league’s elite team thus far in 2011 and with last week’s win over the Raiders, the Pack have now won 19 consecutive games dating back to last season. With wins this week over Kansas City and next week over Chicago, Green Bay will tie New England’s record of most consecutive wins at 21 games.
8. Texans owner Bob McNair took a lot of heat in the offseason for refusing to fire head coach Gary Kubiak despite Kubiak having failed to lead the team to the playoffs during his first five years with the team. McNair’s faith in Kubiak’s ability to lead the team’s offense and his insistence on the team firing its entire defensive staff which led to the hiring of Wade Philips as the team’s defensive coordinator paid off this week with the Texans clinching their first AFC South division title. With a 10-3 record and games against the Panthers, Colts and Titans remaining, the Texans have a chance to finish as the AFC’s top seed which would guarantee the team home field advantage throughout the playoffs, a significant advantage with rookie T.J. Yates leading the team at quarterback.
By: Dave Stringer — December 15, 2011 @ 1:48 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Eli Manning, Giants
This Moving Up is long past overdue. Just 13 games into the schedule, Eli has already surpassed his previous career high in passing yards with 4,105 and is just six touchdown passes away from matching his career high in that category (31 in 2010). In fact, at this current pace he would finish just 32 yards short of matching Dan Marino’s record for passing yards in a season. Of course, that likely wouldn’t even give him the record since he is currently sitting fourth in passing yards in 2011 behind Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Not bad company to keep. Manning currently sits 5th overall amongst fantasy quarterbacks.
Moving Down
Michael Vick, Eagles
Anybody who was paying attention knew that Vick was unlikely to match his fantasy point per game total from last season in 2011 since his 2010 totals were padded by a whopping 676 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns in just twelve games. Thus far in 2011, Vick’s rushing yardage total of 544 remains solid but he has yet to find the end zone and given that his passing touchdowns are also down (just 12 in ten games), his fantasy ranking has taken a major hit. So much for the theory that when he suffers in the passing attack, he will make up for it running the ball. Throw in the injury issues and Vick, the top rated fantasy quarterback in most circles heading into 2011, shapes up as a low end QB1 at best in 2012.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Felix Jones, Cowboys
What the fantasy gods giveth, they can taketh away just as easily. That’s what DeMarco Murray owners found out this week. After looking decidedly mediocre over the Cowboys first five games, he busted out with a 253-yard, one touchdown performance against the Rams and played well until suffering a fractured ankle last week. With most leagues in the 1st round of the playoffs, that was bad timing to say the least. In steps Jones, who was solid this week with 16 carries for 106 yards and six receptions for another 31. He also had a horrible fumble but let’s be honest, Murray owners probably don’t have many options at this point.
Shonn Greene, Jets
Greene has had a mostly disappointing 2011 campaign, with the naysayers heavily critical of his inability to find the end zone. However, he had another touchdown this week after a three-touchdown performance in Week 13, bringing his season total to six. Hard to imagine that a big, bruising back playing in a heavily run based offense has just ten touchdowns over the first 42 regular season games of his career but at least he’s hot for the fantasy playoffs. Of course, his subpar play for most of the year likely means that plenty of his owners are sitting on the sidelines already.
 Ryan Grant is the last man standing in the Packers' backfield. Ryan Grant, Packers
I’m going to be honest with you. Grant was never the most talented running back in the league and the ankle injury he suffered last season seems to have set him back more than was expected. He was never that explosive and now he looks more plodding than ever. That being said, James Starks has missed most of the last three games with injury and Grant finally took advantage of the situation this week against the Raiders, gaining 85 yards and two touchdowns on just ten carries. Starks hasn’t practiced this week and the Pack get the Chiefs and their 25th ranked run defense this week. Yummy.
Brandon Jacobs, Giants
Jacobs played well in Ahmad Bradshaw’s absence and has continued to get carries and produce with him back in the line up. Despite lining up against some pretty solid run defenses (Saints, Packers, Cowboys), Jacobs has amassed 206 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns over his last three games. Up next are the Redskins and Jets.
Kahlil Bell, Bears
Since Marion Barber hasn’t exactly been a bastion of health in recent seasons and the Bears will have to run the ball no matter who is at running back given Caleb Hanie’s lack of success at quarterback, I would be willing to add Bell in larger leagues that use the flex position. He totaled 64 yards on 14 touches this week, which isn’t bad.
Moving Down
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
Let’s see. Your season’s on the line in a key division matchup against the team ahead of you in the standings and your starting running back breaks a team rule. You bench him for a series, right? A quarter maybe? A half? Are you kidding me? That was the plight of Bradshaw owners as head coach Tom Coughlin nailed him to the bench until the second half and then gave him eight carries which produced 12 yards. This week, he has missed practice. Let’s sum it up. In the doghouse. Check. Unproductive coming back from injury (19 carries for 50 yards in his last two games). Check. Backup played pretty well in your absence. Check. Guess what? That gets you Moving Down.
Darren McFadden, Raiders
The word is out. Run-DMC has a Lisfranc injury and that usually requires surgery for a full recovery. Looks like Oakland’s chances of making the playoffs in 2011 are dwindling, as are the chances of McFadden owners who didn’t do the smart thing and handcuff the injury prone back with Michael Bush.
Willis McGahee, Broncos
The good news for McGahee owners is that every time I write his fantasy obituary, this cat discovers another of his nine lives. This week, I’m writing him off courtesy of his 17 carry, 34-yard performance last week against the Bears. It’s nice he got the rock 17 times despite his lack of production but what is worrisome is that he seemed to be bothered by his knee injury.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
James Jones, Donald Driver and Randall Cobb, Packers
With Greg Jennings expected to miss two to three weeks with a knee injury, the Packers will turn to their trio of superlative backup wide receivers in his absence. The only issue for fantasy owners is figuring out which one is the best option. Of the three, Jones has been the most productive this year but Driver had four receptions this week for 75 yards, one week after catching a pair of touchdown passes. Cobb is a supremely talented, rookie 2nd round pick but he’s been mothballed for much of 2011 after a promising performance in Week 1. Jones is clearly the top pick but all three are listed here because they all could be useful in larger leagues.
Jordy Nelson, Packers
See above. Already a quasi WR1, Nelson moves up the chain to clear cut number WR1 for fantasy purposes. His owners could be getting their fantasy Christmas gift early.
Nate Washington, Titans
About the only reason Washington doesn’t get compared to the likes of the Joey Galloway’s and Santana Moss’ of the word is because he’s never had a 1,000-yard season. Other than that, the similarities are striking and it is mostly to do with consistency – as in Washington has none of it. With 798 yards and three games to go, looks like we will be able to make those comparisons in 2012 as Washington seems a likely bet to get to 1,000 yards considering his performance this week. He went off on the Saints, catching six passes for 130 yards and a touchdown, after notching just five receptions for 52 yards over his last two games. Maybe Damian Williams isn’t the surefire number one in Tennessee after all.
Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
Looks like the 1st wide receiver taken in the 2010 draft has some game after all. After playing a solid game in Week 2 of his rookie season, Thomas basically faded into the background due to injuries that ultimately forced him to miss the first six weeks of this season as well. However, over the last two weeks he has become Tim Tebow’s favorite target and made several big plays, accumulating 11 receptions for 222 yards and three touchdowns. And topping it all off are the 20 targets that he had in those games.
Moving Down
Greg Jennings, Packers
Back for the playoffs, at best. NFL playoffs, that is.
Calvin Johnson, Lions
Here’s your second WR1 that is Moving Down this week. Of course, we all knew that Megatron couldn’t keep up the touchdown clip that he was on over his first eight games of the season when he caught 11 touchdowns (including eight in his first four games). However, his owners weren’t expecting him to forget where the end zone was. Unfortunately, that seems to have happened with Megatron finding the end zone just once in the Lions last five games. This week against the Vikings, he put up his worst fantasy performance of the season with just three receptions for 29 yards. In Week 1 of the fantasy playoffs no less. Recall my comment about the fantasy gods giveth and taketh away.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Jake Ballard, Giants
Being truthful (starting a sentence that way makes it sound like sometimes I’m not, doesn’t it), Ballard is Moving Up because the pickings were extremely thin at tight end. Thin as in I don’t ever remember my options being this limited in all my years doing these types of columns. He looked good against the Cowboys this week with four receptions on six targets for 52 yards and a score. Mostly he is here because he got the six targets and scored despite the Giants having their top three wide receivers healthy for an entire game for the first time in ages.
Moving Down
Jimmy Graham, Saints
Sometimes a player tries to play through injury and they’re still productive but they’re just not the superstar they would otherwise me. Meet Jimmy Graham. Graham’s owners likely made the playoffs in their leagues with his performance being a big part of the equation but he is playing through a back injury that he described as painful. This week against the Titans, he caught five balls for 55 yards and failed to score, bringing his scoreless games streak to two.
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