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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — December 9, 2011 @ 4:38 pm
1. With most fantasy leagues beginning their playoff rounds this week, line up decisions become more paramount and there is a major question mark surrounding Monday night’s tilt between the Rams and the Seahawks. The Rams top two quarterbacks are injured and may not play, leaving recently signed journeyman Tom Brandstater as the team’s potential starter against Seattle. Sam Bradford sat out last week with a high ankle sprain and A.J. Feeley suffered a thumb injury. Neither have practiced this week. If Brandstater starts, Brandon Lloyd’s fantasy takes a significant hit so his owners may want to consider other options. In addition, running back Steven Jackson struggled mightily against the Seahawks in Week 11 (15 carries for 42 yards and 19 yards on three receptions) so Sjax owners may want to sit him if better options exist.
2. If Brandstater starts, it will almost certainly add to a long line of bad quarterback play on Monday nights this season. Maybe the NFL needs to flex out some of these matchups.
3. Chargers linebacker Takeo Spikes will play his 200th game this week against the Buffalo Bills, becoming just the 13th linebacker to accomplish the feat. The Bengals 13th pick in the 1998 draft, Spikes has been remarkably healthy throughout his career, being fortunate enough to miss just 21 games with 13 of those coming in 2005 due to an ACL tear. Unfortunately, despite his talent and longevity, Spikes has yet to play in a post-season game throughout his career with the Bengals, Bills, 49ers and Chargers, another remarkable feat.
 The road is getting bumpy for Lynch. 4. Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch has had an outstanding run of games, topping 100 yards in four of his last five games and scoring a touchdown in his last eight. However, after this week’s game against St. Louis, the Seahawks face the Bears (8th ranked run defense), 49ers (1st) and Cardinals (19th) and the bad news keeps pouring in along the offensive line. Having already lost rookie starters James Carpenter (right tackle) and John Moffitt (right guard) for the year, the Seahawks found out this week that left tackle Russell Okung, the team’s best offensive lineman, would miss the rest of the season due to a torn right pectoral muscle suffered when he was flipped to the ground by Eagles defensive end Trent Cole near the end of last week’s win over Philadelphia. While Seattle offensive line coach Tom Cable may have been lost as the head coach in Oakland, his hiring will go down as one of the more astute assistant coach hires of the 2011 offseason.
5. It is difficult to win your division when you can’t muster wins against division opponents and with the Browns 14-3 loss to the Steelers on Thursday night, 2nd year quarterback Colt McCoy is now 0-8 against the AFC North. This loss was especially painful for Browns fans, as Cleveland failed to capitalize on three Pittsburgh turnovers and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger playing more than half the game with a high ankle sprain. While McCoy has shown improvement in his second year in Cleveland, there remain significant doubts about his ability to help make the Browns competitive in what is perhaps the toughest division in the league. Despite playing in new head coach Pat Shurmur’s west coast offense, a version that relies on short passing more than perhaps any other previous scheme, McCoy’s completion percentage has actually dropped from 60.8% last season to 57.2% in 2011. His lack of accuracy, arm strength and inability to win within the division could doom McCoy’s chances of returning as Cleveland’s starter in 2011.
6. Down in Jacksonville, Jaguars fans are just about ready to write off rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert, the 10th pick in the draft, after just ten starts. Gabbert has struggled mightily in Jacksonville, completing less than 50% of his passes, failing to consistently move the offense and displaying poor mechanics, including failing to step into his throws in the face of oncoming defenders, a criticism that was included in several scouting reports prior to the draft. While Gabbert is largely responsible for the Jaguars 31st ranking in offensive scoring, the criticisms he has endured have been overblown. He was not expected to take over as the team’s starting quarterback so early in his career (most teams had him pegged as a project due to his poor mechanics and having led a spread offense at Missouri) but was forced into the role when former head coach Jack Del Rio released David Garrard in the final days of the preseason and then benched Luke McCown after just two starts. That was an especially poor decision, even irresponsible, given that Gabbert had a shortened offseason and wasn’t given first team reps throughout training camp and the preseason. That left him leading an offense he was not familiar with, devoid of playmakers other than running back Maurice Jones-Drew, whose offensive line has failed to develop and who feature the least talented group of wide receivers in the league. In essence, the ingredients for success were never there for Gabbert so his failure should come as no surprise. Look for Jacksonville to hire an offensive minded head coach to help salvage Gabbert and return the Jaguars to respectability on offense.
7. In Minnesota, another rookie quarterback is suffering from a lack of talent surrounding him in the starting lineup. Christian Ponder has outperformed expectations thus far in 2011 but he has been beset by injuries at running back to Adrian Peterson and at wide receiver to Michael Jenkins, a unit that was considered a weak area even with Jenkins available. In addition, dual running-receiving threat Percy Harvin has only begun to play at a consistently high level over the past few weeks and Charlie Johnson has proven himself to be nothing more than a stop gap starter at left tackle for the departed Bryant McKinnie. Look for Minnesota to spend some high draft picks on upgrading their offensive talent and providing Ponder with a better chance at success in his sophomore season.
8. With Matt Flynn a free agent at season’s end and wanting a chance at a starting position, Green Bay will be looking for a new backup to Aaron Rodgers for the 2012 season. Former Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell had been on the team’s practice squad but was signed to the active roster this week when the Buffalo Bills offered him a spot on their active roster. Look for Harrell to be the frontrunner to backup Rodgers next season.
By: Dave Stringer — December 6, 2011 @ 4:17 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Tim Tebow, Broncos
Tebow was hardly dominant in fantasy this week against the Vikings, scoring 19.4 fantasy points on 202 passing yards, two touchdown passes and 13 rushing yards. However, he’s Moving Up because the passing totals represent career highs (it was his third game with two touchdown passes) and it was the first time he has completed over 50% of his passes as a starter. Unfortunately, the increase in his passing totals was more than offset by the decrease in his rushing production. Nonetheless, Tebow is going to need to be a more efficient passer to be a consistent fantasy threat at quarterback and we saw a glimmer of hope of that happening this week.
Moving Down
 Flacco continues his downward spiral. Joe Flacco, Ravens
Let’s just say that Flacco’s not exactly peaking as the playoffs approach, both for the Ravens and for fantasy purposes. Both the 49ers and Browns have shut down the Ravens passing attack over the past two weeks, holding Flacco under 200 passing in both games. He was especially bad this week against the Browns, completing just ten of 23 passes for 158 yards and no touchdowns. The only saving grace is that he avoided interceptions in both games. Flacco’s status as a fantasy backup is basically cemented given his performance this season and, with just one 20 plus point performance over the past seven games, the odds are far greater that he will cost you a win in the next three weeks than help get you one.
Vince Young, Eagles
To the bench for you, young man. Likely for 2012 as well since his performance this season gave little reason for any quarterback needy team to take a chance on him as their starter next season.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Marion Barber, Bears
Given the Bears reliance on the run and Matt Forte’s knee injury, Barber is going to be the top waiver wire add this week in shallow leagues. The only problem is that quarterback Caleb Hanie hasn’t generated much offense in his two starts and he seemed to regress this week against the Chiefs. Let’s just say that it is hard to get on the offense on a roll when your quarterback throws three interceptions every week. That being said, the Broncos, Seahawks and Packers are up next and they all feature middle of the pack run defenses and Barber hasn’t been that bad this season. His 3.7 yards per attempt average is skewed by his low number of rushing attempts and usage in a short yardage role.
Roy Helu, Redskins
Hey, Mike Shanahan did what he said he was going to do for once and Helu owners are grateful. The rookie is picking up steam over the final part of the season, topping 20 fantasy points in each of the last two weeks. He has topped 100 rushing yards while chipping in 96 passing yards in the process, giving him a tidy 304 total yards and two touchdowns over the past two weeks. With Fred Davis suspended for the final four games of the season, look for Helu to become an even bigger presence in the passing game. It’s also nice that backups Evan Royster and Ryan Torain are getting precious few touches behind Helu (one in each game).
Chris Johnson, Titans
Hallelujah. It’s about time. Johnson torched the Bills this week for 153 yards and a pair of scores on just 23 carries, one week after going 23 for 190 against the Bucs. That gives him three 100-yard performances in the last four weeks (with a 12 carry, 13 yard dud against the Falcons thrown in the mix). Up next are the Saints and Colts with the Jaguars in Week 16. If the Johnson of old is back, he might be ready to carry a few fantasy squads to some championships.
Moving Down
Darren McFadden, Raiders
Not much news coming out of Oakland on when McFadden would return to the line up other than head coach Hue Jackson’s comment that he thought it would be this year. Hope you weren’t counting on him for the fantasy playoffs.
BenJarvus Green-Elllis, Patriots
When you can only muster 14 yards on eight carries against the Colts, something is wrong. The touchdown was nice, but again, not a guy you want to rely on. It’s touchdown or bust with The Law Firm.
James Starks, Packers
Ditto for Starks. This guy’s running into injury problems just when his fantasy owners were expecting him to seal the lead back role and get some additional carries in some bad weather games in December.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Percy Harvin, Vikings
After hitting double-digit fantasy points just twice in his first nine games, Harvin has been on a tear over the Vikings last three games. He struggled to fulfill the role Minnesota handed him as the team’s lead wide receiver early in the season but is beginning to blossom as a dual running-receiving threat as the 2011 season draws to a close. This week’s eight reception, 156 receiving yard, two-touchdown performance brings Harvin’s three week totals in the passing game to 22 receptions for 324 yards and four touchdowns. He has also chipped in 51 yards on the ground during that span, averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game. Outside of Victor Cruz of the Giants, Harvin is the hottest fantasy wide receiver in the last three weeks.
Malcom Floyd, Chargers
With Andre Johnson owners desperate for a replacement as the fantasy playoffs heat up, Floyd just might be the answer. Of course, he is as likely to produce as he is to end up sitting on the sidelines. In his first game action after missing four weeks, Floyd torched an overmatched Jaguars secondary on Monday night, hauling in four receptions for 108 yards and a score. That gives Floyd three 100-yard games this season in just eight games and brings his average yards per reception up to 22.1. With the Bills up next followed by the Ravens and Lions, Floyd is a decent option as an AJ replacement although you might look for a better option against Baltimore.
Mike Williams, Buccaneers
Williams was perhaps the worst fantasy wide receiver bust over the first nine games of the season, as he found the end zone just once after scoring 11 touchdowns during his rookie season. While not many expected Williams to replicate that feat, it was expected he would increase his yardage total from the 955 he totaled in 2010. While that isn’t likely to happen, he has a chance to come close to that total as he has lit it up over the past three weeks, finding the end zone in Weeks 11 and 12 and posting five receptions for 93 yards this week, bringing his three week total to 18 receptions for 260 yards. Up next are the Jags, who just got torched by San Diego’s passing offense, the Cowboys and Panthers. That’s not a bad three-week stretch.
Golden Tate, Seahawks
This one’s for deeper leagues only. The man who loves donuts seems to be head coach Pete Carroll’s preferred option at receiver in the red zone. With Sidney Rice out for the year and Mike Williams M.I.A., Carroll has given Tate some red zone opportunities over the past two weeks and he’s scored in each game. The Rams are on tap next week.
Austin Collie, Colts
Collie still hasn’t found the end zone in 2011 but put up season highs in receptions and yards this week with his seven for 70 performance against the Patriots. Maybe Dan Orlovsky is more comfortable throwing to him than Curtis Painter was. For desperate AJ owners, maybe Collie is the answer.
Donald Driver, Packers
Driver is Moving Up courtesy of his four-reception, 34 yard, two-touchdown performance this week against the Giants but I’m not recommending him. He’s here because he’s one of my favorite players so I’m taking an opportunity to give him some kudos for an outstanding career given that he is unlikely to be back in Green Bay for another season. It’s not often that a 7th round pick (from tiny Alcorn State) hangs around the NFL for 12 seasons, posting seven 1,000 yard seasons and accumulating 725 receptions for 9,897 yards and 57 touchdowns. And he did it with class. Driver was never mentioned as one of the most talented receivers in the league but he was one of the hardest workers and he avoided the diva tag. He has been a great leader and his work ethic has clearly rubbed off on the Packers younger receivers, the most talented and feared in the league.
Moving Down
Andre Johnson, Texans
Sure, it’s a mild a hamstring injury. My question is, when you have hammies like AJ’s, is there such a thing? Even if this is only a one-week deal, I wouldn’t feel too comfortable starting him in Week 15 against the Panthers.
Mike Thomas, Jaguars
Sign a big contract, turn into a piece of crap. We’ve seen it before, we’ll see it again. Four games into his third season (and with a year remaining on his rookie deal), Thomas signed a three-year, $18-million extension ($9-million in guarantees) that runs through 2015. In eight games since signing the extension, Thomas has caught 19 passes for 177 yards and no touchdowns. He was fed, now he’s napping.
James Jones, Packers
Forgotten once again, Jones target totals have fallen off the map over his last five games (1, 1, 3, 4, 0). It’s nice that he has scored twice despite the low target total but counting on a touchdown is fantasy folly.
Eric Decker, Broncos
Here is another player who is suffering in the key target statistic. After averaging eight targets per game over the Broncos first seven games, Decker has seen his average targets drop to 4.6 over the last five games. Again, it’s nice that he has scored three times over that span of games but the odds of him averaging a touchdown ever 7.6 targets are pretty darn low.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
Here is an excerpt on my outlook for Gonzo prior to the season: “Gonzalez has been a dynamic tight end throughout his career and is clearly headed to the Hall of Fame, but the writing on the wall can’t be ignored. He is in serious decline.” Well, so much for that. In all honesty, I would be willing to bet some hard earned cash that he had some kind of undisclosed injury holding him back in 2010 because he certainly has an extra spring in his step this season. Over his last five games, Gonzalez has topped nine fantasy points in four games, caught touchdowns in three games and is averaging 10.6 points per game. Rejuvenated. Renaissance season. Call it what you want.
Moving Down
Owen Daniels, Texans
You would think that a pass catching tight end on a team that just lost their best (and only solid) wide receiver to a hamstring injury would be Moving Up but that’s not the case with Daniels. After finding the end zone in three of the Texans first four games, he has failed to score in his last eight games and has between 31 and 35 receiving yards in each of the last four weeks. Consistent – yes. Consistently good – no. It has now been over two years since he suffered a torn ACL that ended his 2009 season and there’s enough evidence to conclude that he will never again produce at the level he was at prior to the injury.
By: Dave Stringer — December 2, 2011 @ 1:13 pm
1. Who knew the NFL was becoming the NBA? Hey, you want to be waived for a chance to go play for a contender, here’s your pink slip. First up was Kyle Orton being waived by the Broncos last week, paving his way to join the Kansas City Chiefs. This week, it is Sage Rosenfels and Donovan McNabb hitting the waiver wire with Rosenfels likely headed to Houston and McNabb possibility on his way to Dallas, where the Cowboys have concerns about Jon Kitna as their top backup quarterback. Frankly speaking, this practice is unfortunate and it is very likely that the league will correct this issue as soon as one of these late season releases ends up tilting the balance of power in a playoff race or in the playoffs.
2. Keeping with that theme, let’s go around the league and do a quick hit on the various quarterbacking situations that are looking quite muddy due to numerous injuries over the past couple of weeks. In Houston, rookie T.J. Yates is in but the Texans signed Jake Delhomme and are likely to put in a waiver claim for Rosenfels. Head coach Gary Kubiak says the Texans will rally around Yates and that sounds about as hollow an endorsement as you will find. Look for Yates to be on an extremely short lease and it won’t be a surprise if Rosenfels is under center by season’s end, provided the waiver process lands him in Houston.
3. In Kansas City, head coach Todd Haley is inexplicably standing by Tyler Palko although Palko is splitting reps on about a 60/40 basis with Orton. This proves that there is stubborn, but at a point stubborn becomes stupid. Haley’s insistence on starting Palko is an example of the latter. Palko’s arm strength is negligible, his running prowess was overstated (two carries for minus six yards in his two starts) and he has been a turnover machine (seven in two starts with six interceptions). With no touchdowns and just four field goals in his two starts, Palko has not been able to generate any kind of offensive rhythm for the Chiefs or even a big play to get them in scoring position. In a must win game this week against the Bears, it will shocking if Orton isn’t under center by the second quarter.
4. Down in Arizona, the Cardinals are set to hands the quarterback duties back to Kevin Kolb. While Kolb has been a huge disappointment after coming over in a trade with Philadelphia, backup John Skelton proved in his four starts that he is not yet ready for prime time. Skelton compiled a 3-1 record in those games but it’s fair to say that the Cardinals won more in spite of him than because he was solid. His lack of accuracy resulted in seven interceptions over the last three games and two of his wins came against the lowly Rams. The Cardinals will spend the balance of 2011 figuring out what they have in Kolb, who needs to display better accuracy and decision-making to prevent Arizona from spending a pick in the upper rounds in this year’s draft on a quarterback.
5. Over in Indianapolis, it was interesting to hear that the Colts will hand the quarterback reins over to Dan Orlovsky to turn around their 0-11 season. This is the same Dan Orlovsky who lost all seven of his career starts in 2008 for the Detroit Lions, a team that finished that year 0-16 in becoming the first (and only) NFL team to fail to win a game. So, what does Orlovsky bring to the table for Indianapolis? Let’s just say he’s experienced in going 0-16.
 One more snap in Indy? 6. Sticking with Indy, quarterback Peyton Manning was advised by doctors that his neck is healing properly and that he should be ready to resume his career, almost certainly in 2012. The team has said that Manning is being kept on the active roster so that he can practice with the team prior to the end of the season. However, with the Colts expected to have the number one selection in the rookie draft, a roster that has numerous veteran free agents such as Reggie Wayne, Jeff Saturday and Robert Mathis and Manning due $28-million prior to the start of the league’s 2012 year, perhaps there is a chance that Manning is being kept on the active roster so that he can go under center for one final play to end his career with the Colts. Given the state of the team’s roster and quarterback Andrew Luck’s availability at the top of the 2012 draft, it would seem imprudent for the Colts to re-sign their veteran free agents, pay Manning his bonus and keep Luck as a backup while attempting to win the Super Bowl over the next two years. There is precedent for Manning going under center for one play. Isaac Bruce was finishing his career with the 49ers in 2009 as a game day inactive but dressed in the team’s final game as a starter, playing one play before calling it a day. Such a scenario would give Indy fans one final chance to salute a player who single-handedly made the team a perennial playoff and Super Bowl contender and will go down as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, player to ever play the game.
7. On the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles chose to spend heavily on their trio of Pro Bowl quality cornerbacks and along the defensive line and if there was ever a game that showcased the fallacy of this strategy, it was Thursday’s night loss to the Seahawks. Facing a determined running back in Marshawn Lynch, the Eagles linebackers failed to bring him down on several runs and compounding the problem was the play of the team’s safeties, who also missed several tackles and took horrendous angles. While Lynch is having perhaps the best stretch of games of his career, the Eagles used several eight-man fronts to slow him down last night but to little avail. The scheme was right but the fading Eagles simply don’t spend their cap in a manner to make it work.
8. Sticking with that game, it is now safe to conclude that Eagles quarterback Vince Young will not have the career renaissance that Michael Vick experienced after joining Philadelphia. Young’s poor decision making was on display several times as were his poor mechanics which resulted in a number of poorly thrown passes.
9. The Jack Del Rio era came to a crashing halt this week in Jacksonville as the Jaguars fired Del Rio and promoted defensive coordinator Mel Tucker to interim head coach. In nine seasons with the Jaguars, Del Rio compiled a 68-71 record and took the team to the playoffs twice, compiling a 1-2 record. However, he failed to win a division title and goes down as the longest tenured coach with one team that failed to accomplish that feat. Del Rio will likely be remembered most for his handling of the team’s quarterback situation, twice choosing to release an incumbent starter mere days prior to opening day (Byron Leftwich in 2007 and David Garrard this season), a move that other teams have rarely if ever, made.
10. The much-maligned Patriots defense has struggled against both the run and pass for much of this season but is reputedly getting stronger as the playoffs approach. Don’t believe it. While New England has improved to 12th against the run, they remain the league’s worst ranked pass defense and there is a quick explanation for both rankings. Over the past three weeks, the Patriots have faced struggling quarterbacks, starting with the Jets Mark Sanchez in Week 10, Vince Young of the Eagles in Week 11 and Tyler Palko of the Chiefs last week. They have played with a large lead in all contests, forcing their opponents to eschew the run for the pass. Up next are Dan Orlovsky (Colts), Rex Grossman (Redskins), Tim Tebow (Broncos) and Matt Moore (Dolphins). That’s good fortune folks, but the Patriots task will get much more difficult in the playoffs.
By: Dave Stringer — November 29, 2011 @ 2:17 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Rex Grossman, Redskins
I know – it’s hard to drink the Rex Kool Aid so I’ll be quick (occasionally, that line works on my wife). In the last two games, he’s thrown for 603 yards with four touchdowns and three picks. He also chipped in a rushing touchdown in Week 11 against the Cowboys. He could do a face plant at any time but after the Jets this week, he gets the Patriots (32nd ranked pass defense), Giants (26th and slumping) and Vikings (29th). The schedule is definitely on his side and having Santana Moss back in the line up at wide receiver helps.
Kyle Orton, Chiefs
He’s gotta be in and that’s all I have to say about that.
Tyler Palko, Chiefs
After the Chiefs close loss to the Steelers this week, head coach Todd Haley said he wasn’t sure if the recently acquired Kyle Orton would start at quarterback rather than Palko. With Palko tossing six interceptions and losing in fumble over the course of two games (including four turnovers to a Steelers defense that had accumulated just six over the first ten games of the season), here’s guessing there’s not much to think about. Of course, Haley somehow thought the noodle armed, accuracy challenged Palko was good enough to be an NFL backup so maybe these decisions aren’t quite as obvious as they seem. I guess Palko as a backup isn’t quite as offensive as Ron Jaworski saying that he had an opportunity to be the next Kurt Warner.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Roy Helu, Redskins
Last week, Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan opined that Helu wasn’t ready to be the team’s starting running back. Fantasy owners everywhere made sure Helu was sitting on their bench. Sure enough, Helu gets a whopping 30 touches against a stout Seahawks run defense and gains 108 rushing yards, 54 yards receiving and finds the end zone on a nice 28-yard run. And, oh yeah, he was in the starting line up. It’s a mixed bag of run defenses on the horizon (Jets, Patriots, Giants and Vikings over the next four weeks) but given Shanahan’s lack of consistency, it’s hard to start Helu over a guy like the Saints Darren Sproles who is guaranteed to get 10-15 touches every week. That being said, the Redskins aren’t getting to the playoffs, Helu is coming off a monster game and he has topped 100 total yards in all three games that he received at least 13 touches so doesn’t Shanahan have to start him?
LeGarrette Blount, Bucs
After topping 1,000 rushing yards in 2010 despite getting significant playing time in just 11 games, the expectations for Blount this season were pretty high. Unfortunately, he’s had a couple of bad games as well as two performances where he barely saw the field because the Bucs were trailing and he doesn’t contribute in the passing game. However, Blount has been rolling over the past two weeks, topping 100 rushing yards in each game and even chipping in a career-high 56 receiving yards this week against the Titans.
"Beast mode" is on a roll. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
It’s been touchdown or bust for Lynch in 2011 and it was nice to see him get on a run of six consecutive contests with a rushing touchdown prior to this week’s game against the Redskins. There was no rushing touchdowns this week but Lynch did top 100 yards rushing (24 for 111) for the third time in four games and also catch a pass for a 20 yard touchdown. He’s rolling at just the right time for his fantasy owners.
Mark Ingram, Saints
Absolutely loved the MNF comment attributed to Saints head coach Sean Payton that the only thing holding Ingram back from being the Rookie of the Year was Payton’s play calling (i.e. not enough touches for Ingram). Yeah, right. That and his atrocious 3.7 yards per carry and 3.6 yards per reception averages heading into Week 12. Giving credit where credit is due, Ingram arguably had a “career game” (little bit of sarcasm there, folks) with 13 carries for 80 yards and a score as well as two receptions for 14 yards. Maybe next week he will top 100 total yards for the first time in his career.
Moving Down
Steven Jackson, Rams
I was high on Jackson as the Rams entered the easier portion of their schedule but the team’s poor passing attack and absolutely devastating injury situation along the offensive line has made it tough sledding for the big Rams back. After three straight 100-yard rushing performances, Jackson has been mostly shut down over the last two weeks by the Seahawks and Cardinals as they stacked the box, limiting Jackson to 139 total yards and no touchdowns in those games. The Rams reshuffled, makeshift offensive line reads, from left to right, Adam Goldberg, Jacob Bell, Tony Wragge, Jason Brown and Harvey Dahl.
C.J. Spiller, Bills
As I said in my column on Fred Jackson’s season-ending injury, Spiller is ill-equipped to handle major touches and hasn’t done much during his first two years in the league. Sure enough, the Jets shut him down easily this week with Spiller gaining 55 yards on 19 carries and catching three passes for 15 yards. He just hasn’t shown anything to suggest that he is a capable NFL starter and his dancing in the backfield leads to far too many negative plays or minimal gains.
Daniel Thomas, Dolphins
With Reggie Bush stringing together a nice stretch of games, Thomas has seen his touches go down in games where the outcome is in doubt. After topping 16 or more touches in each of his first four games, Thomas has had two games with seven touches over his last four contests. And despite entering the league with a reputation as a solid short yardage option, the 228-pound former Kansas State product has found the end zone just once in his rookie season and that was on a pass reception.
Chris Ogbonnaya, Browns
Peyton Hillis made a surprise appearance in the Browns starting line up this week, essentially torpedoing Ogbonnaya’s fantasy value. With Hillis getting a workmanlike 21 touches (and, no, he didn’t do much with them, gaining just 71 yards), Ogbonnaya barely saw the field, gaining 20 yards on four touches. Ogbonnaya’s not the most talented back in the league by any stretch but he did top 100 total yards in each of his last two games and with Hillis unlikely to be re-signed, it seems curious that the Browns gave Hillis so many touches.
Arian Foster, Texans
Just acknowledging that the presence of one T.J. Yates in the starting line up will impact Foster’s production. He’s still a top 10, maybe even top 5 running back the rest of the way but a monster performance may not be in the cards.
Matt Forte, Bears
With the fantasy playoffs just around the corner, Forte has put up his second and third worst fantasy performances over the last two weeks, gaining 85 and 84 total yards in the process and failing to find the end zone. This week, the Bears inexplicably gave backup Marion Barber ten carries to Forte’s 12. Figure that one out. Is injury the issue? Who knows? Either way, Caleb Hanie starting with Jay Cutler out doesn’t help matters. The sad sack Chiefs are up next followed by the Broncos, Seahawks and Packers for the fantasy playoffs.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Johnny Knox, Bears
Let’s connect the dots. In the games that Jay Cutler started, Knox was averaging 4.3 targets, 2.4 receptions and 5.4 fantasy points per game. With Caleb Hanie under center this week, Knox had ten targets, catching four passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. Looks like the backup quarterback likes throwing to his former backup wide receiver. Hopefully offensive coordinator Mike Martz took notice but we all know that Mad Mike works to the beat of his own drummer.
Laurent Robinson, Cowboys
This week against the Dolphins, Robinson hauled in seven receptions for 79 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With that performance, he has now caught 21 passes for 302 yards and five touchdowns in his four starts this season. While Miles Austin is expected back in the starting line up this week after missing three games with an injured hamstring, it’s hard to see the Cowboys relegating Robinson to a pure backup role. Consider him a low end WR3 but worthy of a flex start if your league uses that position.
Roddy White, Falcons
White tested the patience of his fantasy owners for much of 2011 but their patience has been rewarded over the past two weeks with White putting up his two best performances of the season. He had 147 receiving yards in Week 11 against the Titans and topped that this week against the Vikings with ten receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown. And look for that production to continue as the coaching staff has been feeding him the ball (27 targets over the past two weeks). Julio Jones was active this week but not fully healthy. Regardless, White is on a roll and the rookie’s presence isn’t expected to change that.
Percy Harvin, Vikings
In another case of “It’s About Time”, how about the Vikings Percy Harvin? Harvin was a dud over the first nine games of 2011, topping 100 total yards once and finding the end zone just once. He scored his second touchdown in Week 11 against the Raiders and totaled 94 yards. This week, he scored again and put up 106 total yards. That gives the multifaceted Harvin 344 total yards and three scores over the past four weeks.
Brandon Lloyd, Rams
I’m guessing that Lloyd likes St. Louis and his fantasy owners like him in St. Louis. In six games with the Rams, Lloyd has 71 targets (that’s 11.8 per game and just one game where he didn’t hit double digit), 31 receptions, 396 yards and four touchdowns. With 10.6 points per game, he rates as a high end WR2 with upside should the Rams somehow find a way to get the offense clicking.
Moving Down
DeSean Jackson, Eagles
Alligator Arms Jackson dropped not one but two potential touchdown passes this week in a must win game for Philadelphia at home against the Patriots. Both catches were plays that teams expect their top wide receivers to make and both times Jackson came up short. The worst one came on a crossing route at the goal line where Jackson dropped an easy catch at the goal line in order to protect himself. If you want to get paid like a superstar, come up big in a big game like a superstar. Kudos to head coach Andy Reid for nailing his so-called superstar to the bench in the fourth quarter.
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Tyler Palko is absolutely horrendous and figures to be replaced next week by Kyle Orton, who will have had a week and a half to learn the playbook. That hurts Bowe as does his disappearing act this week against the Steelers at the end of the game. With the game on the line and less than a minute remaining, Bowe raised his arm for the ball to come his way. It did. Bowe jumped. And in order to protect himself, he didn’t bother to raise his arms, pirouetting in the air with his arms at his side. Steelers interception, game over. Another so-called superstar wide receiver who doesn’t get it.
Andre Johnson, Texans
Johnson’s a stud and you have to start him every week no matter who is at quarterback for Houston. However, I’m guessing that T.J. Yates was “trending” big time on Sunday after Matt Leinart suffered a suspected broken collarbone. It’s one thing to go from Matt Schaub to Leinart and quite another to go from Leinart to a rookie 5th round pick from North Carolina. Whether it is Yates or veteran retread Kellen Clemens, Johnson’s value is sinking unless the Texans find a veteran signal caller to spearhead the offense (Brett Favre anyone?).
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
Suffice it to say that Lewis owners have been sorely disappointed with his performance in 2011, after he posted a career year in 2010 with 700 receiving yards and ten touchdowns. Hard to believe but the seven reception, 64 yard performance Lewis had in Week 11 was his best stat line of the year and his four reception, 47 yard outing this week was his second best performance of the season. So, he’s trending up. Maybe next week, he will catch his first touchdown of the year (ugh).
Moving Down
Jermichael Finley, Packers
Let’s pretend Finley’s Week 3 explosion (seven receptions for 85 yards and three touchdowns) against the Bears never happened. Here’s what Finley’s stat line would read: ten games, 29 receptions, 428 yards, two touchdowns, 5.5 points per game. And 5.5 points per game is Heath Miller territory. Think low end TE2.
By: Dave Stringer — November 25, 2011 @ 1:28 pm
1. With Tyler Palko clearly limited as a downfield passing threat, the Chiefs moved quickly to claim former Bear and Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton when Denver unexpectedly placed him on waivers this week. While Orton will never be considered to have one of the stronger arms in the league, the Chiefs offense was limited by Palko’s weak arm and opposing defenses were certain to catch on quickly to his limitations and start dropping their safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, reducing the Chiefs options on short and intermediate throws. Look for Orton to move into the starting line up as early as Week 13 against the Bears with a strong likelihood that he enters this week’s game against the Steelers in mop up duty. Orton doesn’t rate as an option for fantasy purposes but his presence does bring a greater measure of comfort to Dwayne Bowe owners who were likely concerned about his ability to keep producing with Palko under center for the Chiefs.
2. With the Chiefs scooping up Orton, the Bears moved quickly to solidify the backup quarterback position behind Caleb Hanie, signing veteran retread Josh McCown. McCown will back up Hanie until Jay Cutler returns to the team, likely in the playoffs should Chicago qualify as a wildcard team. McCown is familiar with the team’s offense from his time together with offensive coordinator Mike Martz (as well as wide receiver Roy Williams) in Detroit. While Hanie has never been a Martz favorite and seems unlikely to return to the Bears in 2012, the odds of McCown stepping into Chicago’s starting lineup are slim. Hanie possesses solid athletic ability but is more of a freelancer and scrambler than Martz cares for. However, McCown is in Chicago simply to provide insurance behind Hanie given that Chicago’s third string quarterback is rookie 5th round pick Nathan Enderle, who is not ready to assume control of the team’s offense.
 Absolutely delusional. 3. Let’s hand out some awards this week. The Absolutely Delusional Award goes to Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh for his post-game comments yesterday after getting ejected for ramming the head of backup Packers offensive lineman Evan Dietrich-Smith into the turf three times before stomping on his arm with his foot. From Suh’s viewpoint, he was being held down, just tried to get up and stumbled. Worse yet, Suh admitted that he saw the replay, which clearly shows him stomping on Dietrich-Smith’s arm. It’s one thing to be involved in a dirty play but another to fail to admit guilt when you have witnessed overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Albert Haynesworth received a five game suspension for stomping on Andre Gurode so, while that incident was worse than this one, the Lions will almost certainly be without their best defensive player for at least one game and possibly more.
4. Next up is Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio who gets the Don’t Hold Me Accountable Award. With Jacksonville trailing Cleveland 14-10 and having the ball on the Browns one-yard line with three seconds remaining, offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter called for a Blaine Gabbert pass to diminutive wide receiver Mike Thomas. With running back Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield it is easy to second guess Koetter’s call, but, as head coach, Del Rio could have ordered a Jones-Drew run had he wanted to. At his post game press conference, Del Rio threw Koetter under the bus stating that the offensive coordinator calls the plays and that reporters should speak to him. Here’s to guessing that Del Rio wouldn’t have the press go speak to Koetter had the play resulted in a Thomas touchdown. Here’s hoping that Jaguars management finally pulls the plug on Del Rio’s tenure in Jacksonville and they move on from a coach who has always been willing to lay blame but never accept responsibility.
5. Next up is the Eagles DeSean Jackson for the Me, Me, Me Award. Flipping the ball to the opposing teams defensive coordinator after a long completion is one thing but then doing the ole’ can’t stick to me thing is guaranteed to draw a flag for unsportsmanlike conduct. Of course, it is not surprise that Jackson was guilty of this considering he dropped the ball in the field of play prior to entering the end zone as a rookie. Note to DeSean – if you want to get paid like you’re a superstar, then play like a superstar and ditch the punk portion of your personality.
6. Finally, the award for Plummeting Performance Right After Signing a Massive Contract Extension goes to Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. In fact, this one wasn’t even close. Since signing a six-year, $59-million extension, Fitzpatrick has failed to top 200 passing yards in two of three games while throwing for two touchdowns and seven interceptions. Pre-extension, the Bills were averaging 30.1 points per game. Post-extension, they are averaging 8.7 points per game. With running back Fred Jackson having been placed on injured reserve, the offensive line banged up and missing their best player in Eric Woods and numerous injury issues at wide receiver, keep Fitzpatrick out of your fantasy starting line up at all costs.
7. With just six games left on the schedule, it is safe to conclude that the Josh McDaniels era has not gotten off to the start that Rams management was hoping for. McDaniels offensive play calling has generated very little scoring in St. Louis where the Rams average a league low 12.0 points per game. With quarterback Sam Bradford having thrown just five touchdowns in eight games and clearly regressing after posting a solid rookie season, the whispers are growing in St. Louis that McDaniels will not be back next season and that owner Stan Kroenke will also look to replace head coach Steve Spagnolo and general manager Billy Devaney.
8. For years, fantasy owners had to be concerned about whether or not they would be able to use their Colt players during the fantasy playoffs. This year, there’s a chance that fantasy owners will have to be concerned about whether or not they can use their 49ers. Who saw that coming? With a 9-2 record and a commanding lead in the NFC West, San Francisco could clinch the division title as early as next week and, with a soft schedule, could also clinch a first round bye prior to Week 16. Monitor that situation as well as the situation in Green Bay where the undefeated Packers could very well rest several key fantasy contributors perhaps as early as Week 15.
9. The Titans used the eighth pick in the draft on quarterback Jake Locker and the expectation was that he would likely enter the starting line up sometime after the midpoint of the season once Tennessee was eliminated from playoff contention. The athletic rookie quarterback played well in his first extensive game action last week, subbing in for injured starter Matt Hasselbeck and nearly bringing the Titans to a come from behind victory over the Falcons. While Locker played well, there are no plans to insert him into the starting line up since Tennessee, at 5-5, sits just two games behind division leading Houston in the AFC South. In fact, with Hasselbeck playing well despite missing the team’s wide receiver in Kenny Britt for much of the season and running back Chris Johnson having the worst year of his career, there is a strong likelihood that he will enter 2012 as the team’s starting quarterback.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 12:51 pm
With three consecutive losses and their season spiraling out of control, the Buffalo Bills situation went from bad to worse with running back Fred Jackson being placed on injured reserve with a fracture to his fibula bone in his right leg.
 Jackson's injury sinks the Bills' ship. Jackson’s injury is a major blow to a Buffalo squad that unexpectedly started the season with three straight wins and at one point seemed on its way to earning at least an AFC wildcard berth. Those playoff hopes now seem faint at best with Jackson out for the season and the team facing a must win game this week on the road against the New York Jets.
With 934 rushing yards and 442 yards receiving, Jackson was second in the league in total yards from scrimmage and enjoying the finest year of his career at age 30. His receiving yardage from this season surpassed a career-high of 371 set in 2009 and he was on pace to shatter his previous high of 1,062 rushing yards, also set in 2009.
Buffalo will turn to a combination of second year player C.J. Spiller, the ninth pick in the 2010 draft, rookie 5th round pick Johnny White and Tashard Choice, claimed off waivers yesterday from Washington, to try to ignite a Bills offense that has struggled over the past three weeks. The Bills managed just 26 total points in losses to the Jets, Cowboys and Dolphins.
Fantasy Impact
Looking at the Bills offense in general, the unit figures to struggle mightily with defenses no longer having to focus their attention on stopping Jackson in the running game or out of the backfield as a receiving threat. Simply put, none of their other options out of the backfield come close to matching Jackson’s skill level in either area.
Even with Jackson, the Bills offense has struggled in recent weeks due to the loss of Eric Woods, their best offensive lineman, and a number of injuries along the offensive line and at wide receiver. It also seems clear that the league’s defenses have caught on to head coach Chan Gailey’s spread offense that rarely takes shots down the field due to the team’s lack of speed at wide receiver.
Spiller is clearly the most intriguing option behind Jackson but he has struggled to meet the expectations of being the ninth pick in the 2010 draft, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry as a rookie and failing to provide big plays in the passing game. In addition, given his diminutive size, Spiller is ill equipped to handle 15-20 touches per game.
If a player’s use is the main gauge in determining what the coaching staff thinks of them, then Spiller’s average of 3.6 touches per game compared to Jackson’s 22 is revealing. However, general manager Buddy Nix and Gailey are responsible for selecting Spiller so they figure to give him every opportunity to hold on to the starting job down the stretch. Look for White or Choice to handle the goaline chores.
White hasn’t been used much since registering eight carries on opening day and wasn’t even a workhorse back in college at North Carolina, carrying the ball 130 times in his senior season while displaying decent receiving ability there, catching 24 balls. He might grab a few carries per game but unless he shows something quickly, look for Choice to quickly ascent to backup status behind Spiller.
As for Choice, he played well during his first two years in the league, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 8.8 yards per reception in limited action, but has slumped over the past two seasons.
If I’m rolling the dice on one of these guys, Choice comes up a tad short of Spiller.
As for the Bills other skill position players, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick clearly takes as a hit as he loses his highly productive outlet option and wide receiver Steve Johnson, already struggling with just four receptions over his past two games, moves into WR3 territory. Both of these players will have trouble finding the end zone with Jackson out of the line up.
By: Dave Stringer — November 22, 2011 @ 2:40 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Caleb Hanie, Bears
With Jay Cutler expected to miss the remainder of the regular season with a broken thumb, Hanie steps into the starting line up for the Bears. While Hanie has done little in the regular season over the course of his four-year career (10 of 17 for 144 yards and a pick), it’s worth noting that he played well in relief of Cutler in last year’s NFC Championship game, completing 13 of 20 passes with a touchdown and two interceptions. It’s also worth noting that offensive coordinator Mike Martz saw fit to drop Hanie to third on the depth chart at one point behind veteran journeyman Todd Collins. Ouch. Well, Collins is gone so Martz will have to ride Hanie and he has the arm strength to make some plays in the passing game.
Moving Down
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
Money can change a man and that certainly seems to be the case with Fitzpatrick. I guess the Harvard grad has spent more time over the last three weeks studying his bank account than the game plan. Since signing a six-year, $59-million contract extension, he has gone stone cold with 546 passing yards, two touchdowns and seven interceptions, doing his best to make Bills management look like fools for handing him an overly generous extension. With running back Fred Jackson and leading wide receiver Steve Johnson banged up, starting wide receiver Donald Jones now out of the line up for an extended period and the league’s defenses having figured out the Bills spread offense, the next few games don’t look good for Fitzpatrick.
Tyler Palko, Chiefs
I gave him a Moving Up last week, more or less because he had an opportunity. After this week’s debacle on Monday night against the Patriots, I’m convinced he has virtually no chance of making the most of that opportunity. Not fast enough to make plays with his legs. An arm that can barely make a 15-yard throw on a rope. Only one running back or tight end capable of making something out of a short pass. With Palko starting, the Chiefs offense is doomed especially considering the Steelers, Bears and Jets are up next.
Sam Bradford, Rams
Unless Jason Smith (concussion) returns to the line up this week, the Rams are down to their second string right tackle (Adam Goldberg) and their third string left tackle (undrafted rookie free agent Kevin Hughes). That’s not good news since offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is stubbornly refusing to scale down the intermediate and deep routes that Bradford is getting killed on because the offensive line can’t hold up in pass protection. It also doesn’t help that Bradford has not proven adept at connecting on deep passes. With five touchdown passes in eight games, Bradford is suffering a sophomore slump that brings into doubt his viability in dynasty leagues.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Kevin Smith, Lions
Smith is going to be the leading pick up in all leagues this week, courtesy of a monster game this week against the Panthers. With Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams doing very little, Smith was signed off the street two weeks ago and given an opportunity against Carolina, gaining 140 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries and also catching four passes for 61 yards and another touchdown. A 3rd round pick in the 2008 draft, Smith was once viewed as the Lions long term answer at running back before numerous injuries derailed his career. The latest timetable on the return of incumbent starter Jahvid Best is sometime prior to the end of the season. Consider Smith worthy of a start until Best reclaims the lead role.
Chris Ogbonnaya, Browns
The Browns have already ruled out Peyton Hillis for Week 12 and head coach Pat Shumur plans to be cautious with Montario Hardesty. That means Ogbonnaya will once again be the featured back for Cleveland, this time against division rival Cincinnati. This week against the Jaguars, Ogbonnaya topped 100 total yards for the second consecutive game, gaining 115 yards and a score on the ground and catching two passes for 19 yards. Consider him a low end RB2 or solid flex play against a Bengals run defense that ranks 3rd in the league.
 Grant could be in line for a spot start in Week 12. Ryan Grant, Packers
With a Thursday game and a 12:30 ET start time, the odds of James Starks being ready after suffering knee and ankle sprains this week against the Bucs seem pretty low. That means he will miss a chance to shine against the Lions 27th ranked run defense. Enter Grant who gained 92 yards on 17 carries against the Bears in Week 3 in his only double-digit carry game of the season.
Toby Gerhart, Vikings
He ain’t sexy, he’s my AP handcuff. With Adrian Peterson unlikely to play this week against the Falcons due to a high ankle sprain, Gerhart will step into the starting line up for the Vikings. It was ugly for Gerhart this week with just 18 yards on seven carries but it’s not like AP did much in that game either (six for 26). In Gerhart’s only start in his 2010 rookie season, he played well against the Bears, gaining 77 yards on 16 carries and catching three balls for 18 yards. He’s not going to get you a win in Week 12 but he’s not likely to be an albatross either.
C.J. Spiller, Bills
With Fred Jackson day to day with a calf injury, Spiller figures to give up some of his pass receiving duties and line up more frequently in the backfield in Week 12, although Jackson is expected to play. Unfortunately, Spiller struggled at the goal line this week and will face a stiff challenge against the Jets in what amounts to a must win game for the Bills. He has been persona non grata in the run game for most of the season, with a season high five carries back in Week 1, no carries in two straight games (Weeks 6 and 8 ) and six carries over the last three weeks (for eight yards). So, no, don’t get too excited.
Moving Down
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
So much for Mathews becoming a consistent fantasy threat at running back in 2011. After topping 100 total yards in each of his first five games and scoring three touchdowns over that stretch, Mathews has failed to hit double-digit fantasy points in his last four games and failed to score in six straight games. He is coming off his worst rushing performance of the year, gaining just 37 yards on 13 carries against the Bears this week. While the groin injury he suffered in Week 10 doesn’t appear to be hindering him, the Bolts banged up offensive line is definitely an issue.
Jackie Battle, Chiefs
Battle was getting a healthy dose of touches for four straight games (averaging 17.3 per game) but that’s come to an end over the last two weeks and the running back situation in Kansas City now seems to be a three headed fantasy monster with Battle, Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones splitting time. That makes Battle a risky start in all formats, especially considering that the Chiefs have the toughest remaining schedule of any team in the league and will be using the noodle armed Tyler Palko at quarterback.
Wide Recievers
Moving Up
Jordy Nelson, Packers
Meet the Packers top fantasy wide receiver. To the back seat, Mr. Jennings. With his second consecutive two-touchdown performance, Nelson moved past Jennings in the fantasy points race and is now the third ranked fantasy wide receiver behind only Calvin Johnson and Wes Welker. Suffice it to say that nobody saw that coming. Nelson has been on a tear over the last five weeks, catching 22 of his 25 targets for 447 yards and six touchdowns. If only the Packers coaches would up that target total.
Victor Cruz, Giants
Meet the Giants top fantasy wide receiver. That’s right, folks, that honor goes to Victor Cruz. Who woulda thunk it? With defenses focused on shutting down Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham missing time and continuing to struggle with consistency, Cruz has been on fire for the Giants. This week, the former undrafted free agent beat Eagles high priced cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha for a touchdown for the second consecutive game this season on his way to six receptions, 128 yards, and 18.8 fantasy points. Cruz has been Mr. Reliable over his last eight games, gaining at least 84 yards in every game save for a Week 6 clunker against the Bills where he caught two passes for 12 yards.
Jerome Simpson, Bengals
When Simpson is the Man, he looks good. When he’s playing second fiddle, he’s useless. Figure that one out. In two starts at the end of last season, with Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens on the shelf, Simpson looked like a world beater, catching 18 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns, this after catching three passes over the first 46 games of his career. With rookie A.J. Green taking over as the team’s lead wide receiver, Simpson was quiet for most of the first nine games of this season, save for a pair of 100-yard outings. With Green out this week, he went off for eight receptions for 152 yards, easily his best performance of the season. While Green may play this week, the knee injury he suffered in Week 9 may hold him back, making Simpson a reasonably decent option if you are desperate.
Torrey Smith, Ravens
Lee Evans was back in the line up and Smith basically gave that the ole so what? Evans had just one target to Smith’s seven and he made sure he made the most of them, catching six passes for 165 yards and a touchdown in a key Ravens win over the Bengals. Smith now has scores in two of his last three games and the target split this week seems to indicate that Smith owners have no worries about Evans eating into his opportunities.
Santana Moss, Redskins
He was likely dumped in most redraft leagues and he almost ready to return from the broken hand he suffered in Week 6, maybe even by Week 12. If you’re desperate and the waiver wire is empty, grab Moss a week early.
Moving Down
Steve Johnson, Bills
Johnson started the season on a tear for the Bills, proving that his breakout 2010 season of 82 receptions for 1,073 yards and ten touchdowns was no fluke. Or was it? With 24 receptions for 314 yards and three touchdowns over his first four games, Johnson appeared well on his way to establishing himself as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver. However, in the six games since then, he has just 22 receptions for 233 yards and one touchdown and he is trending downward with two receptions in each of his last two games and no touchdowns in four straight contests. Defenses seem to have figured out the Bills spread offense and it is possible that the shoulder injury Johnson suffered in Week 10 is hindering his production.
Wes Welker, Patriots
Eight receptions for 68 yards in his last two games. Opposing defenses are focusing on shutting him down. Just saying, although it is worth noting that not many teams have the quality cornerbacks that the Jets and Chiefs possess.
Devin Hester, Bears
Hester was only worth owning in deeper leagues but with no targets in his last two games, he’s not worth owning in any league.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
Let’s just say that Gronkowski has been on an absolute tear over the last four weeks, blowing past the Saints Jimmy Graham to become the top rated fantasy tight end thus far in 2011. With a pair of touchdowns this week against the Chiefs, Gronkowski has now scored five touchdowns over his last three games and is up to ten on the season. In addition, he has 404 receiving yards over his last four games and has become the team’s main receiving threat with opposing defenses focused on shutting down Wes Welker. Consider Gronkowski a solid bet to be the top rated tight end at season’s end.
Moving Down
Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
With Gronkowski on a roll, Hernandez has seen his playing time and opportunities reduced to the point where he’s a touchdown or bust option at tight end. That was fine and dandy when he was scoring a touchdown a game for three straight weeks but he hasn’t found the end zone for two straight weeks. Ignoring the touchdowns, let’s recap his last four games: two receptions for nine yards (four targets), four receptions for 35 yards (five tarets), four receptions for 41 yards (five targets), four receptions for 44 yards (seven targets).
Fred Davis, Redskins
When Santana Moss went down with an injury in Week 6, Davis’ fantasy outlook seemed to brighten since he was clearly the team’s last remaining playmaking threat in the passing game. That theory held up well when Davis has a pair of solid games in Weeks 7 and 8 but in the three games since then, he has tallied just 13 receptions for 119 yards. It looks like the Redskins poor quarterback play is dragging down a player who was coming into his own in his fourth season in the league.
By: Dave Stringer — November 15, 2011 @ 5:00 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Matt Leinart, Texans
With 46 consecutive starts, Matt Schaub had gone a long ways in establishing that he wasn’t the injury prone player many thought he was after a pair of 11 start seasons when he became the Texans QB beginning in 2007. Unfortunately, he suffered a lis franc injury that will likely end his 2011 season. Enter Leinart, who hasn’t thrown a pass since the 2009 season. At least with the Texans having a bye in Week 11, he will have an extra week to get ready for Houston’s Week 12 matchup against the Jaguars. Unfortunately, it is anybody’s guess as to how Leinart will perform. Considering he did little in Arizona with a pair of Pro Bowl quality receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, we should all keep our expectations in check. That being said, the Texans have a talented offense with a strong running game so Leinart does have a chance to surprise.
Tyler Palko, Chiefs
Speaking of keeping expectations in check, I present to you Tyler Palko. Who? Great question. Who knows. I don’t profess to. Why? Because Matt Cassel has, in the word of Chiefs head coach Todd Haley, a significant hand injury. Since teams keep these things pretty close to the vest, let’s assume Palko’s the man in K.C. for at least a couple of weeks. That gives him an opportunity. Now if only he were surrounded by some better talent. With no dynamic threat at running back and a lack of a pass receiving tight end, Palko shouldn’t be in your starting line up until he puts together a pair of decent games. If your options are Leinart or Palko, take Leinart.
John Skelton, Cardinals
Can you say spark? John Skelton’s record as a starter in 2011: 2-0. Kevin Kolb’s record as a starter in 2011: 1-6. And that win came in Week 1. So, let’s assume you are Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt, what guy do you start? Production says Skelton. At $65-million over five years, contract says Kolb. Skelton was the top ranked fantasy passer on Sunday, throwing for 315 yards and three touchdowns. The two picks weren’t great but if you play in a league that doesn’t punish interceptions and you’re desperate for a bye week fill in, Skelton might be your man.
Vince Young, Eagles
With Michael Vick likely out with broken ribs, Young is likely in, given that he went in for a snap this week when Vick went down. Or maybe it will be Mike Kafka, who didn’t exactly play horribly earlier this season. As usual with Young, there are question marks such as whether he knows the offense. In his one snap this week, he had to be told to line up in the shotgun. The upside is there, there is talent on offense but Young seems like a scary proposition.
Moving Down
Michael Vick, Eagles
The Philadelphia Heat, errr Eagles, are officially in the tank and Vick’s outstanding 2010 season was a, errr, fluke? Maybe. He’s been completely average the past couple of weeks and has two broken ribs, DeSean Jackson might be ready to pull a diva act (continue pulling a diva act?), the team might be ready to tank it (has already tanked it?) and head coach Andy Reid is on the ropes in Philadelphia and may need six consecutive wins in order to land the Eagles in the playoffs and ensure his return in 2012. Note all the question marks? Vick’s just one of them.
Matthew Stafford, Lions
Note to Matt Stafford: thanks for letting us know after the game that you were playing with a broken ring finger. Note to self: don’t believe Matt Stafford when he tells you that his horrible inaccuracy had nothing to do with his broken ring finger. Note to self: don’t start Stafford until he puts together a solid game. Stafford put up 20.6 fantasy points this week but needed 63 passes to get there. In a game that was even remotely close, he would have been a fantasy dud this week. I’m worried about the finger and Stafford owners should consider their options.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Steven Jackson, Rams
I took a whole pile of slack for suggesting in my Dave’s Take column that the man known as Sjax had a solid schedule over the second half of the season. The naysayers seemed to think I was off my rocker and that Jackson was ready to reitre to his rocker. Sure enough, three straight 100-yard games later we have our answer. Sorry for gloating but sometimes I can’t help myself.
Lance Ball, Broncos
Bam, down goes McGahee. Bam, down goes, Moreno. Bam, in comes Lance Ball? That’s right and if that’s a surprise, the 30 carries for 96 yards he put up this week against the Chiefs will also come as a surprise. Do I sound stoked? Okay, I’m not that stoked. Although Moreno is out for the year with a torn ACL, McGahee is apparently set to practice today and the Broncos surely can’t run it 55 times and throw it just eight games in another game this season, can they? They play Thursday so McGahee may not be 100% by then. That’s good. What’s not good is that they face the Jets and I expect their defense to show the league just how prehistoric the Broncos offense really is. One more for the good: McGahee just can’t seem to stay healthy this season. Ball is a decent option in larger leagues and not a bad one if you’re in dire straits at running back.
Chris Ogbonnaya, Browns
A week after looking like a lost puppy against the Texans (13 carries for 28 yards), Ogbonnaya was surprisingly solid this week against the Rams. He ran with some authority and made a couple of guys miss on his way to a 19 carry, 90-yard performance. He also chipped in a pair of catches for 19 yards to hit double-digit fantasy points. The Jaguars are on tap in Week 11 and if Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty are out yet again, Ogbonnaya rates as a low end RB2 or decent flex option.
Moving Down
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
He’s not getting the ball and he’s not doing much with it when he does get it. The Law Firm last scored in Week 5 against the Jets but in the four games since then, he has managed just 149 yards on 41 carries. Can I get my retainer back? Okay, bad pun but I’ve been guilty of worse. At this point, BJGE isn’t a guy you want in your starting line up, no matter the matchup.
LeGarrette Blount, Bucs
The issue with Blount isn’t so much his performance. It’s the situation. The Bucs defensive line is in shambles, the offense isn’t clicking and Blount doesn’t see the field when they are playing from behind due to his poor receiving skills and pass blocking abilities. With the Bucs playing from behind against the Texans and unable to stop the Houston rushing attack, Blount had just ten carries for 34 yards this week. Next up are the Packers so expect more of the same.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
 Denarius Moore is the WR to own in the Raiders passing game. Denarius Moore, Raiders
Let’s see. Darrius Heyward-Bey is in the doghouse and Jacoby Ford’s going to be on the inactive list while the tight end position is persona non grata in Oakland’s offensive scheme. Looks like Moore should be in line for some major targets in the Raiders Week 11 road game against the Vikings, who have some major issues at cornerback – just lost Antoine Winfield and got scorched on Monday night by the Packers. No, Carson Palmer is not Aaron Rodgers but he doesn’t need to be for Moore to have a big game. Look no further than last week’s five-reception, 123-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Chargers.
Antonio Brown, Steelers
Every so often you’re just plain wrong about something and thus far in 2011, I’ve been wrong about Brown. I figured Emmanuel Sanders was the anointed one to take over for Hines Ward. Wrong. I figured Brown’s targets would dry up. Wrong. I figured Brown wasn’t all that dynamic. Wrong. In fact, the only thing from preventing him from being a WR2 so far in 2011 is a lack of touchdowns. As it is, he is currently the 25th ranked fantasy wide receiver. Brown has been Ben Roethlisberger’s best friend over the past four weeks, catching 26 of his 41 targets for 364 yards and a touchdown. There’s nothing to suggest this should change going forward.
Vincent Brown, Chargers
With Malcom Floyd on the shelf with a hip injury, Brown looked solid on Thursday night against the Raiders, putting together his second strong performance in as many weeks. The rookie 3rd round pick caught five of nine targets for 97 yards and a touchdown and had another score reversed on replay. The previous week he caught four of six targets for 79 yards. With defenses focused on shutting down Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates and Floyd one of the most injury prone wide receivers in the league, Brown may emerge as a solid WR3 option over the next several weeks. With three of the Chargers next four games against opponents with pass defenses ranked 20th or lower, Brown is worth a look if Floyd remains out of the lineup.
Harry Douglas, Falcons
When Julio Jones went down this week, Douglas stepped up to have a career game against the Saints. The 2008 3rd round pick had career highs in targets, receptions and yards, finishing the game with eight receptions for 133 yards. The Falcons have been mum on the status of Jones’ hamstring injury but it certainly looks like he will miss Atlanta’s Week 11 home matchup against the Titans. If that’s the case, Douglas is worthy of a start.
Moving Down
Hines Ward, Steelers
Not only is Ward no longer starting in Pittsburgh, he’s not even seeing the field in three wide receiver sets, even though Emmanuel Sanders is hurt. Yeah, that’s right, he’s playing behind Jerricho Cotchery, the same Jerricho Cotchery who has six receptions for 83 yards and a score this season. Looks like the gig is up for Ward in Pittsburgh and the gig should be up for Ward’s inclusion on your fantasy roster, if it wasn’t already.
Roddy White, Falcons
For whatever reasons, the 2008-2010 magic is gone for White. This year, he’s been decidedly average, putting up just 8.3 fantasy points per game after averaging 11.7 over the previous three seasons. In fact, he’s on pace to finish 2011 with 1,001 yards and five touchdowns which would translate into his worst season since becoming a full time starter in 2007. Perhaps the knee and thigh injuries he’s experienced this season are holding him back more than he has let on. Regardless, he’s a far cry from his former self and nine games into the season, it’s safe to say he’s not the top three wide receiver most expected he would be.
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Two receptions for 17 yards last week and now catching passes from Tyler Palko. Let’s just say that Bowe is very unlikely to finish 2011 as a top ten wide receiver given the current state of Kansas City’s offense.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Ed Dickson, Ravens
Dickson started out the season in strong fashion, catching five passes for 59 yards and a score in a Week 1 win over Pittsburgh. With Todd Heap in Arizona and Lee Evans on the shelf beginning in Week 2, the hope was that Dickson would emerge as a solid receiving option behind wide receiver Anquan Bolden and that performance only help fuel that hope. Let’s just say that never materialized, with Dickson failing to find the end zone over the following seven games or top 51 yards receiving. This week against the Seahawks, he was a bigger part of the game plan, catching ten of 14 targets for 79 yards and a pair of scores. Move Dickson up to solid TE2 for the balance of the season.
Moving Down
Greg Olsen, Panthers
With a touchdown in every game from Week 3 to Week 5, Olsen was shaping up as an expectedly solid TE1 early in 2011. However, the wheels have come off since then with just one trip to the end zone over his past four games. In addition, some of the chemistry he had with rookie quarterback Cam Newton has gone by the wayside, with the two connecting on just 14 of their past 31 targets, hardly an inspiring completion percentage for a tight end.
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