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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — November 11, 2011 @ 6:19 pm
 Best backup RB in the league. 1. If there was any doubt who is the best backup running back in the league, the Raiders Michael Bush put those doubts to bed with his performance Thursday night against the Chargers. With Darren McFadden out of the line up, Bush ran roughshod over a solid Chargers run defense, gaining 157 yards on 30 carries and catching three passes for another 85 yards, allowing Oakland to win the time of possession battle and ultimately prevail over the Chargers in a key road game against a division rival. His 242 total yards were the fourth highest ever by a Raider and the most since Bo Jackson gained 235 yards against the Seahawks in a 1987 contest – many of you may remember that game. Bush has now topped 100 total yards in three straight games, gaining 482 yards and two touchdowns over that stretch. Dynasty leaguers should take note of his contract status with Bush having signed a one-year deal to remain in Oakland, allowing him to test the free agent waters in 2012. While the Raiders would clearly love to re-sign Bush, look for another team to offer him a starting role (and commensurate salary) and for this to be his last season in Oakland.
2. Sticking with the Raiders, the perplexing situation of wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey continued last night. After coming off the best four game stretch of his career (22 receptions for 385 yards and a touchdown), he barely played in a Week 8 loss to the Broncos, getting targeted only once. That carried over to last night’s game with DHB not receiving a single target despite Jacoby Ford getting injured and not returning. Consider DHB waiver wire fodder until the Raiders bring some clarity to why he has suddenly become persona non grata in the team’s offensive game plan.
3. The Seahawks made a big splash in free agency, signing tight end Zach Miller away from the Raiders despite the presence of 2009 1st round pick John Carlson. With more speed than Carlson and having averaged 61 receptions for 756 yards and three touchdowns over his past three seasons, Miller was expected to provide Seattle with a tight end capable of splitting the safeties and making some big plays in the passing game. However, even with Carlson suffering a torn labrum that caused him to be placed on injured reserve in the preseason, Miller has been a non-factor in the Seattle passing game, hardly justifying the five-year, $34-million ($17-million guaranteed) he received in the offseason. He has been targeted just 20 times, catching 11 passes for 99 yards and failing to find the end zone. With Miller spending most of his time blocking, backups Anthony McCoy and Cameron Morrah have combined to have more targets than Miller. Signing Miller to such a large contract and using him as little more than a blocker is another in a growing list of questionable decisions made by Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll.
4. Eight games into the 2011 season, it is safe to conclude that the Eagles grand plan to utilize three Pro Bowl quality cornerbacks has backfired badly and it is not just because of the performance of those players. Free agent signee Nnamdi Asomugha has regressed badly from his play a season ago in Oakland, giving up big plays to journeyman receivers such as the Bears’ Earl Bennett and Victor Cruz of the Giants. Fellow starter Asante Samuel has played reasonably well but has not come up with the big plays that have been a hallmark of his career. He is on pace to finish the season with just two interceptions, an unjustifiably low number considering the Eagles pass rush has been solid for most games this season. Meanwhile, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has often been forced to line up in the slot and he has struggled badly in that role. His incredible closing speed is wasted in that role and he lacks the short area quickness to be effective playing out of the slot. In addition, the salary cap space used on the Eagles cornerbacks resulted in the team having to use inexperienced players in the starting line up at linebacker and caused a severe lack of depth along the offensive line, two areas that have struggled this season.
5. Bengals rookie wide receiver A.J. Green has had an amazing start to his career, catching 40 passes for 599 yards and five touchdowns eight games into the season. The fourth pick in the rookie draft has made a smooth transition to the pro game, displaying his speed and athleticism in almost every game he has played save for Week 1 where his lone reception went for a 43-yard touchdown on a busted play where he was uncovered. Green’s owners may want to take note of Cincinnati’s upcoming schedule which features five consecutive games against pass defenses ranked in the top five (Ravens, Browns, Texans and the Steelers twice). Although Green is clearly destined to be a top five wide receiver for several years, rookies often hit the wall around the 10-game mark and with a difficult schedule on the horizon, his owners may want to temper their expectations over the next few weeks.
6. Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson has always been a boom or bust player but he’s testing the patience of his fantasy owners even more than usual in 2011, particularly over the last three weeks. In games against the Redskins, Cowboys and Bears, Jackson has been a relative non-factor, catching eight passes for 93 yards and no touchdowns despite being targeted 20 times. With Philadelphia’s offensive line struggling and opposing defenses playing plenty of soft coverages, the coaching staff has used more screens, checkdowns and intermediate patterns in the middle of the field in recent weeks. Jackson has always been more of downfield threat (witness his career yards per reception average of 18.1) but opposing defenses are more determined to force the Eagles to march down the field methodically rather than allowing big plays to Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Since Maclin is more inclined to go over the middle than the frequently alligator-armed Jackson, he is the Eagles wide receiver to own for fantasy purposes.
7. There has been some silly talk lately about how Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is the league MVP based on HIS NOT PLAYING and the Colts failing to win a game thus far in 2011. While Manning’s absence is a large part of the reason for the team’s poor record, a look at their drafts over the last five years provides another large clue as to why they are winless. The team has failed to hit on many players taken in the later rounds and their 1st and 2nd round picks have fared very poorly. Players taken in those rounds since 2007 that have failed to live up to expectations include Anthony Gonzalez, Tony Ugoh, Mike Pollak, Donald Brown, Fili Moala and Jerry Hughes.
By: Dave Stringer — November 8, 2011 @ 3:26 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
 Is Rivers ready to roll? Philip Rivers, Chargers
Rivers struggles in 2011 have been well documented so let’s not spend time rehashing that. However, as I noted in my Dave’s Take column on Friday, the Chargers have been a great second half team with Rivers at the helm and sure enough he and wide receiver Vincent Jackson were in fine form this week against the Packers in a high scoring affair (NFL and fantasy football style). Rivers threw for season highs in yards (385) and touchdowns (four), on his way to his best fantasy performance of the season (35.2 points). Up next are the Raiders (25th ranked pass defense), Bears (27th) and Broncos (19th).
Moving Down
Colt McCoy, Browns
Over the first five games of the season, McCoy looked comfortable leading the Browns attack with a touchdown pass in every game and three games with two touchdown passes while averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game. At that point, he certainly appeared on the verge of cementing his status as Cleveland’s starting quarterback for years to come. Since then, the wheels have come off. Over his last three games, McCoy has passed for 565 yards and two touchdowns with three interceptions, averaging 14.3 points per game. The recent stretch has caused him to plummet to the 26th overall fantasy ranking at quarterback, making him officially worthy of being dropped.
Curtis Painter, Colts
Hmmm. Do you think defenses have figured Painter out? The Colts third year signal caller raised hopes with a pair of decent starts against the Bucs and Chiefs where he averaged 279 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game. Since then, it’s been mostly downhill sledding. Over his last four games, Painter has two sub-100 yard passing performances, just one touchdown pass, five picks and is averaging 151 yards per game. Yuck.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Roy Helu, Redskins
Let’s face it – if you didn’t think Helu was going to get a chance in the Redskins backfield, then you’re likely in elementary school. The only issue is that his owners were salivating at the prospect early in the season with the Redskins offense rolling and now they might just be the league’s worst due to their numerous injuries. Let’s just say I’m a lot less excited by Helu’s presence in the starting line up than I thought I would be (yes, I own him). Let’s assume Helu starts for the rest of the season (a big if). What’s the over/under on how many touchdowns he scores? Two? Three? Yeah, he’s worth grabbing (especially in dynasty leagues) but keep your expectations in check. With Helu grabbing 14 passes this week and the Redskins figuring to be playing from behind plenty over the second half of the season, I like him a lot more in PPR leagues.
Reggie Bush, Dolphins
With Daniel Thomas back in the lineup, the odds seemed pretty strong that Bush would once again be relegated to more of a backup role this week against the Chiefs despite his strong Week 8 performance against the Giants where he had 15 carries for 103 yards and added another 17 yards on four receptions. However, even though the Dolphins staked out a big early lead, a situation that would seem to call for the bigger back get more work, Bush stayed in the game, producing 92 yards and a score on 13 carries and adding three receptions for 50 yards. It’s anybody’s guess as to who will get the playing time in any given week in the Dolphins backfield but it would seem hard for the team’s coaches to ignore Bush’s solid performance over the past two weeks.
Frank Gore, 49ers
Five straight 100-yard rushing performances. Touchdowns in four of his last five games. Plays for a team that’s winning by pounding the ball on the ground. Suffered an ankle sprain this week. Three out of four ain’t bad.
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
As my momma taught me, give credit where credit is due. And so I begrudgingly have Lynch Moving Up this week. Do I own him? No. Do I like him much? No. Has he scored touchdowns in four straight games? Yes. Does he have double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games? Yes. After this week’s game against the Ravens, do the Seahawks face another run defense ranked better than 10th? No. Lynch is Moving Up, I just puked in my mouth and I hope you’re all happy.
Moving Down
Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Can you say enigma? If there’s a word to describe Wells, this is it. Minor injury, out. Stud against great defenses. Ridiculously bad against bad defenses. Despite not being expected to play last week against the Ravens due to a knee injury, Wells was a go and ran the ball 22 times for 83 yards and a score against the league’s third rated run defense. With the Rams on tap in a tantalizing matchup, Wells went flat, gaining 20 yards on ten carries. Maybe even worse is that he suffered a neck stinger in the fourth quarter. If he won’t play with a hang nail, he’s certainly not going to play after suffering a neck stinger.
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
So bad that the Broncos would rather start a pedestrian 30-year-old with a broken hand rather than him. If anybody in Denver knows a good realtor, Knowshon could use your help.
Joseph Addai, Colts
In Week 8, Addai dressed but didn’t play. In Week 9, Addai dressed but didn’t play. My wife tells me I can be a little slow on the up take at times but I do sense a trend here.
Delone Carter, Colts
Carter did play in Week 9, it’s just that he fumbled on the Colts first series and was benched for his efforts. Donald Brown stepped in and looked decent. Carter may get the start next week, or he may not. At this point, it’s anybody’s guess as to whether it’s going to be Carter, Brown or Addai in the starting line-up.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Earl Bennett, Bears
Roy Williams has been horrible (witness his horrendous drop on a deep ball on Monday night against the Eagles). Devin Hester suffered an ankle injury this week and has been almost as bad as Williams. And it seems like the Bears coaching staff is doing everything in their power to keep Johnny Knox from getting consistent playing time. Enter Bennett. In his first game after suffering a chest injury in Week 2, Bennett carved up the Eagles, catching all five of his targets for 95 yards and a touchdown. All that plus the knowledge that quarterback Jay Cutler loves throwing to his former college teammate.
Laurent Robinson, Cowboys
Moving Up last week and Moving Up once again this week courtesy of Miles Austin’s injured hamstring, an injury that may keep him out for weeks. Despite being released by the Chargers in the preseason and then signed, released and re-signed by the Cowboys and not playing until Week 3, Robinson is the 44th ranked fantasy wide receiver and sits at 28th in average points per game. This week, he caught all five of his targets for 32 yards and a score.
Vincent Jackson, Chargers
Vjax owners were having their patience tested this season with the Chargers top wide receiver posting just a pair of double-digit fantasy performances over his first seven games. There were a few ugly stat lines in there (think two for 31, three for 34, one for 15) but his owners were rewarded this week with a seven reception, 141-yard, three touchdown performance against the Packers. With defenses often double teaming tight end Antonio Gates, Jackson just might be ready to explode in the second half of the season.
Josh Cribbs, Browns
Yeah, I know, it’s hard to trust Cribbs but the numbers don’t lie. He’s had at least three targets in every game, is averaging 4.9 targets per game and we know what he can do with the ball in his hands. Over the last two games, he’s caught seven passes for 106 yards and a pair of scores. With Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty likely out at running back next week and Chris Ogbonnaya flopping badly in his first career start this week against the Texans, the Browns figure to use Cribbs a decent amount next week against the Rams and their pathetic defense.
Lavelle Hawkins, Titans
With Nate Washington going down with a hip injury, Hawkins stepped into the Titans receiving fray and posted a solid game with five receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown. Interestingly enough, I checked his FFToday players page and this dude is averaging 5.7 targets over his last seven games. Who knew? And who knows how long Washington will be out but I’m guessing a hip injury isn’t a good thing for a wide receiver. Up next are the Panthers and their 14th ranked passing defense followed by the Falcons (24th), Bucs (26th), Bills (24th), Saints (11th), Colts (22nd) and the Jaguars (8th) in Week 16. If quarterback Matt Hasselbeck can stay upright and Washington’s hip is problematic, Hawkins might be a decent option in larger leagues.
Moving Down
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
Raiders head coach Hue Jackson questioned his team’s smarts after they took 15 penalties for 130 yards during this week’s 38-24 home loss to the Broncos. Raiders fans questioned head coach Hue Jackson after he failed to use Heyward-Bey (one target, no catches) despite the 2009 1st round pick coming off the best stretch of his career (22 receptions, 385 yards and a score over his last four games). So, who’s dumber? Hue or the Raiders? Or is that a trick question…
Mike Williams, Bucs
Somebody in Tampa, please let the team’s coaching staff know that Williams isn’t the same player he was last season. Touchdowns: on pace for 2, down from the 11 he posted in his rookie season. Yards: on pace for 726, down from the 955 he posted a year ago. Targets: on pace for 142, up from the 128 he had in 2010. Yards per catch: down from 14.9 last season to 9.8 this season. This situation has me more confused than Elmer Fudd.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Jacob Tamme, Colts
If my memory serves, those who jumped on Tamme immediately after Dallas Clark suffered a season-ending injury in 2010 were rewarded. With Clark suffering a potentially season ending leg injury this week, could history be repeating itself? Nah. Peyton Manning is out and Curtis Painter’s been horrible so Tamme has almost no chance of replicating his solid performance from last season when he accounted for 67 receptions, 631 yards and four touchdowns. Still, he’s worth grabbing as your TE2 if you don’t like your current option.
Moving Down
Ben Watson, Browns
I needed an option to have Moving Down at tight end and Watson is what I came up with. At first glance, his performance this season hasn’t been far off what he did last season (5.9 PPG vs. 5.3) but he’s stumbled over the past four weeks, coincidentally struggling along with McCoy. Watson caught nine passes for 130 yards over that span and it also doesn’t help that he’s been targeted just nine times over the past three weeks. Let’s just say that’s it’s hard to be a productive fantasy tight end in a struggling offense when you’re averaging three targets a game.
By: Dave Stringer — November 4, 2011 @ 2:41 pm
 A good buy-low candidate. 1. With the trading deadlines for most fantasy football leagues just around the corner, the Rams Steven Jackson picked a fine time to notch his first 100-yard rushing performance of the season, also ending a nine-game drought in which he had been held below 100 yards. Jackson’s performance has been underwhelming for the early part of 2011, as the Rams have faced a grueling schedule and he missed most of two games with a thigh injury. However, the Rams schedule gets decidedly easier over the next eight weeks with the Seahawks and Cardinals on tap twice as well as games against the 49ers, Bengals, Browns and Steelers. If you’re looking for a mid-tier, reasonably low cost option at running back, SJax just might be your guy.
2. While Patriots quarterback Tom Brady remains on track to eclipse Dan Marino’s record for most passing yards in a season, his performance over the last four weeks seems to indicate that possibility is getting more remote as the season progresses. After averaging 332 passing yards over his first three games, the Patriots passing attack has come back to the pack over the last four weeks with Brady averaging a 259 yards per game. This week against the Steelers, he was held to a season-low 198 yards, his lowest passing yardage total since a Week 16 blowout win over the Bills in 2010. Opposing defenses have clamped down on wide receiver Wes Welker over the past two weeks. Look for that trend to continue until the Patriots find a way to exploit single coverage with their other receivers.
3. 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree has been a major disappointment over most of his two and a half year career in San Francisco but may be ready to finally make good on the promise he showed coming out of Texas Tech. He notched his first touchdown reception of the season this week against the Browns and finally seems to have found a rapport with quarterback Alex Smith. Smith has been reluctant to throw to Crabtree courtesy of his several drops, many of which led to interceptions, over the last year and a half. However, he has targeted Crabtree 24 times over the past two games, connecting 14 times for 131 yards and a touchdown. While Crabtree is unlikely to ever match the expectations he had placed upon him coming out of college, he shapes up as a solid WR3 over the remainder of 2011.
4. Sticking with the 49ers, here’s a tip of the cap to head coach Jim Harbaugh for his imaginative play calling this week in San Francisco’s 20-10 home win over Cleveland. In the first quarter, Harbaugh had starting left tackle Joe Staley report as an eligible receiver and Staley gained 17-yards on a catch and run play. Then in the fourth quarter, defensive tackle Isaac Sopoaga reported as an eligible receiver, gaining 18 yards. Staley and Sopoaga accounted for 26 yards after the catch displaying as much playmaking ability as the Browns receivers did in Week 8.
5. With Philadelphia’s win over Dallas, Eagles head coach Andy Reid has now won 13 consecutive games after his team’s byes. The Eagles clearly had a superior game plan than Dallas, both on offense and defense, proving yet again that Reid is a great game planner when given additional time to find his opponent’s weaknesses.
6. Saints quarterback Drew Brees had a garbage time touchdown pass with six seconds remaining this week against the Rams, keeping his streak of consecutive games with at least one touchdown pass alive at 35 games. If Brees throws a touchdown pass this week against the Bucs, he will move into a tie for second place on that list. Johnny Unitas has the record for most consecutive games with at least one touchdown at 47 games.
7. If you hitched your fantasy wagon to the Chargers quarterback-wide receiver combo of Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson, odds are you are scrapping to make the playoffs. However, as any Chargers fan or astute NFL fan knows, San Diego has been a second half surge team for the past several seasons and that will need to be the case once again if the team is to reach the postseason. Over the past three years, the Chargers have a record of 21-5 over the final two months of the season (three if you count January). Up next for San Diego are the 7-0 Packers who feature the league’s 31st worst pass defense, which is at least partly attributable to Green Bay getting big early leads in several games this season. However, that recipe bodes well for fantasy success this week for Rivers and Jackson. Between this week and Week 16, the Chargers face five pass defenses ranked 19th or worse, making Rivers and Jackson great buy low candidates.
8. How bad have the Rams been over the last few years? When safety Darian Stewart intercepted his first NFL pass and returned it 27 yards for a touchdown, it was the team’s first defensive touchdown since Game 6 of the 2009 season.
9. How bad have the Rams been this year? When they took a 3-0 lead this week over New Orleans, it marked their third lead of the season.
10. While the Raiders recent signing of free agent wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh was greeted with a collective yawn from fantasy football owners, look for him to earn enough looks to render one of Jacoby Ford or Denarius Moore irrelevant in the Oakland offense. Since his Week 2 breakout game over the Bills, Moore has caught just nine passes over his last five games for 66 yards and a touchdown, despite averaging 5.2 targets per game. With Moore playing out wide, Ford has been relegated to the slot and has just 11 receptions for 114 yards in four games. Houshmandzadeh isn’t worth owning but his presence makes Moore and Ford not worth owning either, except in dynasty leagues.
11. In the oddball statistic category, we present the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs were left for dead after being outscored 89-10 over the first two games, losses to the Bills and Lions. Of course, at the midway point of the season, those teams appear to be much stronger than was expected entering the season. Since then, Kansas City has outscored their opponents 118-81 over their last five games, going 4-1. Add it all up and the Chiefs now sit atop the AFC West, ahead of San Diego and Oakland by virtue of tiebreakers, despite having a negative point differential of 42. Oh yeah, the Chiefs ranked 20th or lower in passing offense, passing defense and run defense.
By: Dave Stringer — November 1, 2011 @ 4:57 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
Big Ben is back on track in Pittsburgh and put up perhaps his finest game of the season this week at home against New England. He threw 50 passes, completing 36 for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns with 1 pick. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 25.7 points per game and that is with a subpar stat line in a Week 6 win over Jacksonville when the Steelers went ultraconservative (23 pass attempts). Consider Roethlisberger just outside the top tier of quarterbacks for the remainder of 2011.
Moving Down
Tim Tebow, Broncos
Tebow was Moving Up last week but I did qualify by pointing out that my opinion of him as an NFL starting quarterback was pretty low. If that sounds like a whole lot of excuse making, that’s because it is. In two starts this season, Tebow has been horrible for 115 of 120 minutes. Five solid minutes in two games does not make you a QB1. If Tebow keeps this up, Broncos management will banish him to the bench first and to running back in 2012 and Denver’s fans will have nothing to say about it. If you’re looking for Vegas style odds, how about 3 to 1 to Tebow’s a running back next season.
John Beck, Redskins
Man, I was bad at quarterback last week. Beck was also Moving Up but at least this one’s not entirely on me. The Redskins offensive line was absolutely putrid this week, allowing nine sacks against a Bills defense that had generated just four sacks in their first six games. As mentioned in my Dave’s Take column on Friday, the Redskins have replaced or lost starters at five offensive positions since opening day. Beck threw 33 passes, was forced to run three times and took the nine sacks, hitting the turf 23 times. If that’s not an indictment of the team’s offensive line, then what is? Conclusion: it’s going to take a few weeks for the Shanahan boys to overcome the loss of so many offensive players from a team that lacked talent and playmakers on offense even when everyone is healthy.
Running Backs
Moving Up
 Jackson has earned the title of RB1. Fred Jackson, Bills
Who would you rather start – Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte or Fred Jackson? At the start of the season, I don’t think anybody thought Jackson (or Forte for that matter) would be in that conversation but Jackson has morphed into a top five running back and there’s basically no reason why that should change over the remainder of the season.
Steven Jackson, Rams
With the Rams hoping for a prayer against the Saints this week, SJax (and the team’s defense) delivered big time, going for over 100 rushing yards for the first time since Week 13 of last season. Jackson basically carried the offense in workhorse fashion, gaining 159 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25 carries and catching four passes for 32 yards. With their horrendous early season schedule out of the way, the Rams now get their NFC West division rivals twice each in addition to Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh over their remaining nine games with San Francisco’s stingy run defense in Week 17. If that sounds yummy, that’s because it is.
Arian Foster, Texans
With 499 rushing yards, 310 receiving yards and five touchdowns over the last five weeks, looks like we can put those hammy issues to rest. This is a reminder to consider Foster a top five running back over the remainder of the schedule.
Javon Ringer, Titans
With Chris Johnson continuing to struggle, the Titans ramped up Ringer’s use for the first time this season. In a 27-10 win over the Colts, Ringer matched Johnson’s 14 rush attempts and caught five passes – two more than Johnson. The questions are whether the plan was to use Ringer more or whether the score dictated his extra use and what is the plan going forward? After the game head coach Mike Munchak stated that the Titans would ride the hot hand. There is no question that Ringer was more productive in Week 8, gaining 102 yards on his 19 touches compared to Johnson’s 51 yards on 17 touches. Don’t be surprised if Ringer ends up being the hot hand in Week 9.
Joseph Addai, Colts
Hopefully Addai owners didn’t start him this week based on the pregame reports of being active. While he dressed, he didn’t play and the plan was to only use him in an emergency situation. With another week of rest, Addai’s injured hamstring should be good to go in Week 9 against the Falcons. Neither Delone Carter nor Donald Brown did enough to claim the starting gig during Addai’s absence and it’s possible that they will both be relegated to pure backup status in a couple of weeks. Indy’s offense is a horror show but Addai was reasonably productive during the first four games of the year when he was healthy.
Moving Down
Ryan Torain, Redskins
On the positive side, Torain had eight carries this week to none for rookie Roy Helu. On the negative side, he gained just 14 yards, often getting hit in the backfield, and now has just 31 yards on 20 carries over three games since his big Week 4 against the Rams. While the performance of the offensive line is largely to blame, you can almost guarantee that head coach Mike Shanahan will turn to Helu in hopes of sparking his dormant offense which is averaging 11 points per game over the last three games and 16.6 points per game for the season.
Chris Johnson, Titans
See Javon Ringer above. Consider Johnson officially benchable.
Montario Hardesty, Browns
Hardesty is working hard to prove that the label he had coming out of college of being injury prone was bang on. Last year, he tore his ACL in training camp and he’s been nicked up this season and will likely miss time due to a moderate tear in his right calf. So, just when it looks like the Browns may have given up on Peyton Hillis and Hardesty’s got a chance to be the BMOC, he pulls up lame.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Laurent Robinson, Cowboys
Robinson was Moving Up a couple of weeks back with the proviso that he was more of an option in deeper leagues considering that Dallas’ starting wide receivers Miles Austin and Dez Bryant seemed to be taking turns on the inactive list. It turns out that their being injured isn’t a prerequisite for Robinson to get a solid number of looks in the team’s offense. Granted it was in a blowout loss but Robinson had eight targets, catching five passes for 103 yards and a touchdown this week against the Eagles. And just as importantly, the guy has looked good when given an opportunity, catching 19 of 28 targets this season for 336 yards and a score.
James Jones, Packers
Jordy Nelson has cooled down after two solid fantasy performances to start the season and has now posted three duds in his last five outings. Meanwhile, after three duds to start the season, Jones has been catching everything in sight. Over his last four games, he has caught 13 of his 16 targets for 286 yards and three touchdowns. Right now, I would be more comfortable starting Jones than Nelson.
Anquan Boldin, Ravens
After posting just one double-digit fantasy point performance over the first four weeks of the season, it seemed Boldin was on the verge of becoming a low end WR3 in 2011. However, he has come on strong over the past three weeks and Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron may finally have figured out how to best utilize Boldin’s talents. Geez, only took a year and a half. With 33 targets, 19 receptions, 317 yards and a score over the past three games, Boldin may be ready to emerge from his Baltimore slumber to become the high-end WR2 most expected when he moved from the Cardinals to the Ravens.
Jonathan Baldwin, Chiefs
The Chiefs rookie 1st round pick made his first big contributions this week against the Chargers, getting targeted eight times and catching five balls for 82 yards, including a nice 39-yard touchdown reception. Better yet, while Baldwin didn’t start, he was on the field opposite Dwayne Bowe in almost all two receiver formations, relegating Steve Breaston to more of a third receiver role. With Bowe getting plenty of attention from opposing defenses and no threat at tight end, Baldwin may be useful of the second half of the season. His stat line would have looked even better had he not had a drop.
Antonio Brown, Steelers
With Hines Ward out, Brown stepped up for the Steelers against the Patriots this week, catching nine passes for 67 yards and his first touchdown of the season. The Patriots basically left the middle of the field wide open for much of the day and the Steelers took advantage of it, with Brown getting a whopping 15 targets. Ward figures to return from an ankle injury this week and Emmanuel Sanders actually started over Brown, but it is Brown who has been the team’s second most productive wide receiver behind Mike Wallace thus far in 2011. Just a note that I like Sanders better in dynasty leagues.
Moving Down
Santonio Holmes, Jets
Mea culpa. Should have had Holmes here last week courtesy of his two reception, 24-yard performance in Week 7 against the Chargers. He was supposed to be the Jets top threat at wide receiver this season, and while that may be the case, he hasn’t exactly been producing much and his three touchdowns have saved his fantasy performance from being truly abysmal. Why? He’s not seeing the ball. Taking away his games against the Cowboys and Ravens where he had 22 targets, Holmes averaged 3.8 targets per game in his five other starts. That’s not receptions, folks. Oh yeah, he hasn’t topped 70 receiving yards in a single game and has five games with less than 50 receiving yards. Add it all up and Holmes shapes up as a guy who needs to score a touchdown to be useful. Can you say bust?
DeSean Jackson, Eagles
The last time I had DJax Moving Down, he responded with a six reception, 171 yard performance against the 49ers and followed that up with a five reception, 86 yard, one touchdown performance against the Bills. Since then, defenses have clamped down on him once again and he has just six receptions for 77 yards over his last two games. Talented, yes. Ridiculously streaky, you bet.
Brandon Marshall, Dolphins
Consider the prospect of Marshall returning to top ten status at wide receiver officially dead. After a nice pair of games to start the season, Marshall has gone cold. He has been held under 62 receiving yards four out of the past five games and failed to score in all of those games. At this point, he is on pace to finish the season with two touchdowns, one less than the three he had last season. Basically, Marshall is being held back by poor quarterback play and a Dolphins offense that is averaging 13.1 points per game and has topped 20 points just once in 2011.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Brent Celek, Eagles
Celek has been a forgotten man in the Eagles passing attack for the past year and half but with defenses focused on shutting down wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin on the outside, Philadelphia has attacked the middle of the field over their past two games… and that’s been good news for Celek. He has been targeted nine times in each of the Eagles past two games, catching a touchdown in each contest with eleven receptions and 136 receiving yards over the two game span.
Moving Down
Jared Cook, Titans
Take away an 80-yard touchdown reception in Week 7 against the Browns and Cook is averaging a whopping 3.6 fantasy points per game. It certainly looks his fantasy owners should give up on the prospect of Cook having a breakout campaign. And with four targets over the past two weeks, it certainly looks like the Titans have too.
By: Dave Stringer — October 28, 2011 @ 3:16 pm
1. We have nearly hit the midseason mark so let’s go out on a limb here (not really) and proclaim Tennessee running back Chris Johnson as the biggest fantasy bust thus far in 2011. Johnson has been simply atrocious, helping to bolster two arguments often espoused by fantasy owners: don’t acquire players who are holding out and don’t acquire player who have just signed a lucrative, long-term contract. Johnson hit on both counts and maybe that’s why he’s not doing much on the field. In six games, Johnson has just 268 rushing yards, 143 receiving yards and a single touchdown while averaging 2.9 yards per carry. That’s not a typo, folks. And neither is this – his fantasy points per game average sits at 7.9, making him the 31st highest points producer at running back. If you put him ahead of a couple of players who have yet to have their byes, Johnson would rank 29th. That’s not even automatic start territory. The big plays just haven’t been there for Johnson in 2011. Or maybe he’s just not making the most of his opportunities. Either way, he’s been held under 54 rushing yards five times, topped 100 rushing yards once and had three games with less than 25 rushing yards.
2. Bears running back Matt Forte is having an outstanding, MVP caliber season and is the main reason that Chicago remains in the hunt for a wild card spot at 4-3. With 151 yards rushing and 39 receiving yards this week against the Buccaneers in London, Forte became the first player since 2004 to top 1,000 total yards in just seven games. Both Priest Holmes and Tiki Barber accomplished the feat that season.
3. The Cam Newton Show keeps on rolling in Carolina. This week, the Panthers defeated the Redskins 33-20 in a home game, lifting their record to 2-5. Newton added to his league leading quarterback rushing total, gaining 59 yards on the ground and scoring another touchdown, giving him seven on the season. That touchdown allowed Newton to tie the record for the most rushing touchdowns by a rookie quarterback. Here’s banking on Newton shattering that record by season’s end.
4. After looking decidedly mediocre and completely overhyped for the first five games of his NFL career, Cowboys rookie running back DeMarco Murray looked like the second coming of Jim Brown this week, running roughshod over a Rams defense that had more holes that swiss cheese. Murray finished the game with 25 carries for 253 yards and a touchdown, breaking both the Cowboys single game record for most rushing yards and accumulated the 9th best rushing performance in league history. After the game, Murray stated that he’d never expected to have “a game like this.” Suffice it to say that after his first five games, his fantasy owners didn’t either and many of them likely had him planted on the bench.
5. At the start of the season, the Redskins offense was playing surprisingly well with Rex Grossman at quarterback, Tim Hightower churning out decent production at running back, Santana Moss once again leading the wide receiver corps and a pair of talented tight ends in Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. What a difference a few weeks. In a key game this week against the Bills in Toronto, Washington will trot out John Beck at quarterback, Ryan Torain at running back, Davis at tight end and Jabar Gaffney as their top wide receiver. It also doesn’t help that the Redskins placed starting guard Kory Lichtensteiger on injured reserve a week ago. If you don’t see trouble ahead for Washington’s offense, take off the rose colored glasses. There is but one solid fantasy option in the Redskins offense and that is Davis, who is on the verge of becoming a top five fantasy producer at his position.
6. Sticking with the Redskins, don’t expect Cooley back in Washington for the 2012 season unless he accepts a massive pay reduction. Cooley will turn 30 prior to next season, has lingering knee problems and is due $3.8-million next season. Considering that he has been surpassed on the depth chart by Davis who is clearly an ascending player, Cooley will need to accept backup money to return to Washington in 2012.
7. Here’s a shout out to Vikings defensive end Brian Robison. After the Vikings 33-27 loss to division rival Green Bay, Robison tweeted that he was sorry for kicking Packers offensive lineman T.J. Lang in the groin, that he didn’t aim for the groin and that he is not a dirty player. Which begs a couple of questions. Where exactly was Robison aiming? Does Robison think that kicking is okay, provided it’s not in the groin? Here’s hoping NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell kicks Robison really hard somewhere – like say his bank account.
8. The Rams keep getting mentioned as a candidate to land the top overall pick in the draft and the opportunity to land Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. Of course, with Sam Bradford on the roster, a Luck selection by the Rams would be followed quickly with a trade of the Stanford star to another team. However, that scenario isn’t likely to happen. After this week’s game against New Orleans, the Rams play each of their NFC West rivals twice, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Presumably, the Dolphins and Colts are the front-runners in the Suck for Luck sweepstakes.
 Finley is lacking opportunities. 9. Owners of Jermichael Finley have, for the most part, been disappointed in the Packers tight ends fantasy performance in 2011. Expected to be a top five producer at his position with many pundits having him pegged as the second ranked tight end behind the Chargers Antonio Gates, Finley has just 25 receptions for 334 yards and four touchdowns this season, with 85 yards and three touchdowns coming in the Packers Week 3 win over the Bears. While the consensus has generally been that his performance will turn around, a look at the tight end stats tells us that Finley is the 17th most targeted tight end on a per game basis. As you read here all the time, opportunity is the first ingredient in production and Finley just isn’t getting much of either. Over the Packers last two games, Finley has been targeted just six times.
10. Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz has been a boon to the team’s offense since taking over in the slot, producing a number of big games prior to his two reception, 12 yard performance in Week 6 against the Bills. In the three games prior to that, he had 17 receptions for 369 yards and 3 touchdowns and the assumption by most is that he had put a stranglehold on the slot receiver role for New York. However, 2009 3rd round pick Ramses Barden is eligible to come off the physically unable to perform list and there are rumblings out of New York that the team is anxious to see what he can do. Despite having solid size at 6’6” and 225 pounds, the team thinks Barden can produce out of the slot as well as on the outside spelling Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham.
By: Dave Stringer — October 25, 2011 @ 3:56 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Christian Ponder, Vikings
Last week, Ponder was moving up with the proviso that it was for dynasty leagues only. After showing some moxie this week in nearly bringing the Vikings to a come from behind win over the undefeated Packers, Ponder is looking like he could be a useful asset at some point in 2011. Completing 13 of 32 passes isn’t pretty but he made some big plays, finishing with 219 passing yards and 31 rushing yards. It’s always nice when a rookie quarterback can pad his fantasy stats with three or four points on the ground every week.
Tim Tebow, Broncos
Bit of a qualifier here. My opinion on Tebow as a fantasy quarterback was pretty low compared to most so even a 13 of 27 for 161-yard, two-touchdown performance gets Tebow in the Moving Up column. Yes, he did have something like 40 passing yards with five minutes to go. Sure, if the Dolphins can chew up the clock, his fantasy point total would look really ugly. But this guy’s got some Doug Flutie in him – sans the accuracy, of course. He wins. It’s never conventional, it’s not going to be pretty but he wins. And as I said with Ponder, rookie quarterbacks who run are a little easier to live with.
John Beck, Redskins
In his first start of 2011, and first start since the 2007 season, Beck looked surprisingly good for the Redskins. Despite losing his best weapon in Santana Moss mid-game, Beck completed 22 of 37 passes for 279 yards and a touchdown with one interception. He also chipped in ten yards and a touchdown on the ground, giving him rushing touchdowns in consecutive games. Between Week 8 and Week 16, the Redskins have six games against teams with passing defenses ranked 21st or lower and just one game against a top ten passing defense.
Moving Down
Carson Palmer, Raiders
Moving from the unemployment line to being the anointed one in Oakland got Palmer Moving Up last week but I did qualify it by stating that “We will see how many weeks it takes him to shake off the rust.” After a three-interception performance in just two quarters, we have our answer – several. As in, Palmer looked so bad that it’s going to take several weeks before you can click him as your starter and feel good about it. In fact, he was so bad, he fills out my quota for the Moving Down portion at the quarterback position.
Running Backs
Moving Up
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
Murray was moving up last week, a weak endorsement based on Felix Jones being out for a minimum of two weeks and a schedule that worked in his favor with the Rams and Eagles on tap. Well, he certainly took care of the Rams, setting a Dallas single game rushing mark with 253 yards on 25 carries and finding the end zone on a 91-yard run. Better yet, as noted, the Eagles are up next and Tashard Choice left the Rams game with a shoulder injury and there is no word yet on whether he will suit up next week. Time to rain on the parade a little… it was the Rams. They have the league’s worst run defense. Murray isn’t likely to get a 91-yard touchdown run every week where he makes exactly one defender miss. To be honest, I’m putting a major discount on this performance. I watched it and the Rams-D was UGLY. Don’t sell the farm for Murray.
Kregg Lumpkin, Buccaneers
This one’s a bit of a gamble but if you have an open roster spot, Lumpkin is worth grabbing. Starting running back LeGarrette Blount may play in Week 9 against the Saints following the Bucs Week 8 bye and top backup Earnest Graham is out for the year with a torn right Achilles’ tendon. We all know that Blount can’t catch so Lumpkin figures to get at least some playing time even if Blount is a go. Of course, there’s a reasonable chance the Bucs bring in another back with more experience catching the ball. Tiki Barber, anyone?
Jackie Battle, Chiefs
Battle was quietly efficient for the second game in a row, earning 16 carries and gaining 76 yards in the Chiefs 28-0 win over the Raiders. That gives him 216 total yards over his past two games and almost assuredly makes him the Chiefs running back to own for the balance of the 2011 season. He’s a plodder, yes. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, yes. LeRon McClain may continue to get the goal line work, yes. But Battle is the man in K.C. at the moment and that counts for something.
Ryan Torain and Roy Helu, Redskins
With starting running back Tim Hightower out for the season with a torn ACL, Torain and Helu figure to split carries for the Redskins… or maybe some other back on the roster… or maybe some other back not on the roster. At the moment, it’s one of these two. Pick your poison and mark my words, you will drink the poison. My money’s on Torain over the short haul with Helu taking over by Week 12.
Michael Bush, Raiders
Bush owners knew that starting Raiders running back Darren McFadden would get dinged up at some point but the timing isn’t exactly what they were hoping for with Oakland having a Week 8 bye. That gives McFadden two weeks to recover from the foot sprain he suffered this week against the Chiefs and reduces the chances Bush will get his first start of the season in Week 9 against the Broncos. Nonetheless, Bush looked solid against Kansas City, gaining 99 yards on 17 carries and also chipping in a pair of receptions for 12 yards.
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
Willis McGahee stole his job but Moreno gets another chance to prove he is worthy of starting for the Broncos in 2012 with McGahee out several weeks with a broken index finger. I guess he’ll be running with plenty of confidence since the Broncos essentially gave up on him when they made McGahee the starter. Don’t expect much.
Alfonso Smith, Cardinals
Smith is the man in Arizona until Chris Wells returns to action. Week 8 looks horrible with the Ravens on tap but after that it’s the Rams (32nd ranked run defense) and Eagles (24th) followed by a no-hoper against the 49ers (2nd) and then the Rams again. So, Smith is usable in three of the next five games if Wells doesn’t go.
Moving Down
Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Made. Of. Glass. Wells apparently suffered a knee bruise this week to the same knee that rendered him basically useless in 2010. Is more of the same on tap for 2011? Would you bet against it?
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
Looks like there may be a changing of the guard at running back in Carolina. Jonathan Stewart has outperformed Williams for most of 2011 and Williams took more of a back seat role this week, getting 10 touches to 14 for Stewart. With Stewart already getting more work in the passing game and in short yardage, Williams value will take a serious hit if he starts losing carries to Stewart on a regular basis.
Thomas Jones, Chiefs
Jones starts. Battle gets most of the touches. LeRon McClain subs in for short yardage. Jones is too slow to make any big plays so he’s a 10-carry, 40-yard guy for the balance of the season. You can do better.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Roy Williams, Bears
Last week, it looked like Devin Hester was the Bears new number one wide receiver. After this week’s game against the Bucs, it looks like Roy Williams may have overtaken him, which is what Chicago had as their plan entering the season. He had his best game of the season this week, catching four of five targets for 59 yards and a score. The timing was good for Williams with Earl Bennett expected to return to the line up following Chicago’s Week 8 bye. Looks like Johnny Knox may be the odd man out if Bennett returns to assume his role as the team’s slot receiver.
 Marques Colston is on a tear. Marques Colston, Saints
Last week, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson were all Moving Down because Colston was back in the line up and there weren’t enough balls to spread around. Sure enough, Colston is on a tear, putting up his second consecutive strong performance in the Saints crushing win over the Colts. Colston caught all seven of his targets for 98 yards and a pair of scores, bringing his two week totals to 14 receptions for 216 yards and three touchdowns. He is shaping up as a mid-tier WR1 for the remainder of 2011.
Jabar Gaffney, Redskins
With reports indicating that Santana Moss will be out for 5-7 weeks with a fractured hand, Gaffney becomes the Redskins top threat at wide receiver. Or maybe “threat” isn’t the best word since he’s scored once in six games this year and just twice over his last 21 games. Maybe “consistent” is the better adjective. Here are Gaffney’s yardage totals this year – 54, 62, 60, 62, 55 and 68 for an average of 60 yards per game. In 2010, he averaged 55 yards a game. There you have it – you know what you’re getting with Gaffney – consistent mediocrity.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
I had DHB Moving Up two weeks ago and he has forced my hand with another pair of solid performances. Don’t look now but it is beginning to look like maybe the Raiders did the right thing in taking DHB over Michael Crabtree. Over his last four games, Heyward-Bey has 22 receptions for 385 yards and a touchdown, averaging 11.1 FPts per game. That’s mid-tier WR2 territory. Sure, the sample size is small but DHB rates no lower than as a WR3 for the balance of 2011.
Moving Down
Mike Thomas, Jaguars
I was all set to have Jason Hill Moving Down with Mike Sims-Walker back in Jacksonville and Hill likely headed to the bench. The only problem is, Thomas is headed to the bench. Worse yet for his owners, Hill led the Jaguars in targets against the Ravens, catching four of eight looks for 62 yards. Sims-Walker was targeted just twice with Thomas getting a single look. Despite getting a lucrative long-term extension a few weeks back, Thomas has seen his targets decrease for three straight weeks from 11 to 7 to 6 to 1.
Santana Moss, Redskins
With 39 and 38-yard performances in Weeks 4 and 6 (the Redskins were on a bye in Week 5), I was getting ready to have Moss Moving Down. His fractured hand seals the deal.
Danario Alexander, Rams
Brandon Lloyd is in town and while Alexander isn’t a forgotten man, the target total dropped to six this week, his lowest of the season. It doesn’t help that he’s caught just 16 of 39 targets.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Antonio Gates, Chargers
After pondering to the media whether he would even play in Week 7, Gates started and looked good, catching five of seven targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. Reports indicate that he didn’t have any setbacks so Gates is back to being a fantasy starter. Just make sure you keep a decent backup on standby.
Heath Miller, Steelers
After a slow start to the season, Miller has been a bigger factor in the Steelers passing attack over the last three weeks, particularly in the red zone. In Steeler wins over the Titans, Jaguars and Cardinals, Miller has totaled 11 receptions for 132 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Up next is the Patriots 32nd ranked pass defense just in case you need bye week filler.
Moving Down
Jermichael Finley, Packers
Sure, he scored a touchdown – that was nice. However, in his last two games Finley has been targeted a measly six times, with just three receptions for a miserly 33 yards and the touchdown. At the beginning of the season, nobody was expected to read “measly”, “just” and “miserly” in paragraphs about Finley. But here’s one that has all three. Time to change our assumptions about this cat. Here’s one more thing to consider – one game with double-digit fantasy points out of seven. Convinced?
By: Dave Stringer — October 21, 2011 @ 3:18 pm
1. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite the passing of Raiders owner Al Davis, Oakland once again hit the trade market in a desperate manner this week, giving up a 1st round pick in the 2012 draft and a conditional pick in the 2013 draft that could also be a 1st round pick in exchange for Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer. At worst, the 2012 pick will be the Raiders 2nd round choice. Unfortunately for the Raiders, Palmer hasn’t been the same player since suffering elbow ligament damage in 2008 and having shoulder issues last season. The bottom line is that the Raiders are a team loaded with deep threats at wide receiver and they gave away a boatload to acquire a player who hasn’t been much of a deep passer over the last two years.
 The most successful rookie quarterback in 2011? 2. Sticking with the Palmer situation, the play the Raiders lost starting quarterback Jason Campbell for the season due to a broken collarbone occurred when Cleveland linebackers Scott Fujita and Chris Gocong took Campbell down on a pass rush. What kind of karma is that for the Browns? Credit Fujita and Gocong for helping hand the Bengals two premium picks in the next two drafts. If the Bengals hit on those picks, Browns fans will remember that bad karma for years to come.
3. Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, the first player taken in the NFL draft, has taken the league by storm as well as the fantasy world with his amazing start to the season. However, you could make the argument that the most successful rookie quarterback, and the one with the best chance of taking his team to the playoffs, is the Bengals Andy Dalton. While Newton’s Panthers sit at 1-5, Dalton’s Bengals are 4-2 with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.
4. Here’s a reminder why it’s always nice for your fantasy prospects to load up on players from the top offenses in the league. The Patriots failed to top 30 points this week against the Cowboys, marking the first time in 14 games that they failed to score 30 or more points. The Rams squads from the 1999 and 2000 seasons set the mark with 14, leaving the current New England squad one game shy of matching their record.
5. Sticking with the Patriots, while they didn’t hit the 30-point plateau this week, they did eek out another home win, giving them 20 straight wins at Foxboro. It seems like they manage to pull out wins there even when they play poorly, as was the case this week against Dallas.
6. Staying with that game, it was certainly a curious decision by Cowboys coach Jason Garrett to play for a field goal near the end of regulation, relying on his defense to hold against the Patriots offense. That decision backfired and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones called him out on it this week. Of course, that was Jerry being Jerry since he also wasn’t pleased when the Cowboys continued to play aggressively despite a big lead over Detroit, that decision also backfiring when quarterback Tony Romo threw three second-half interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns, as the Lions came back to beat the Cowboys.
7. Sticking with questionable coaching, if Buffalo wasn’t a small market team, there would be howls of outrage over the decisions Chan Gailey made this week. With a little over four minutes remaining in a tied game, the Giants with two timeouts remaining and the Bills already in field goal position at the Giants 27-yard line, Gailey called for a go pattern down the sideline to Steve Johnson. However, Corey Webster had spent much of the day draped all over Johnson and already had one interception. Webster picked off an underthrown pass from quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Giants promptly marched down the field for the game winning field goal. While running back Fred Jackson had been bottled up by the Giants run defense saved for a couple of big runs, Gailey would have been better served playing more conservatively, with the worst case scenario having the Giants needing a field goal to tie.
8. The Panthers placed starting right tackle Jeff Otah on injured reserve this week, marking the third time in his four seasons in the league that he has finished the season on injured reserve. Carolina’s 1st round pick in the 2008 season, Otah was outstanding in his rookie year but not as impressive in his sophomore season before missing all of the 2010 campaign. With Otah out of the lineup, the Panthers will turn to rookie undrafted free agent Byron Bell but that may be a stop gap measure until recently signed Reggie Wells is ready to play. If Bell struggles, look for left guard Travelle Wharton to slide out to right tackle with Wells stepping in at guard. Otah’s loss hurts the Panthers rushing attack, which is already struggling with neither DeAngelo Williams nor Jonathan Stewart having solid seasons.
9. Chargers tight end Antonio Gates is listed as questionable this week but the odds are on him suiting up against the Jets. Head coach Norv Turner has indicated that Gates will be scaled back if he plays but one area where that likely won’t be the case is in the red zone, where the Chargers have struggled. Quarterback Philip Rivers has made a habit of protecting the ball in the red zone but has already thrown two picks there already in 2011. Look for Gates to resume his role as the Chargers preferred option near the goal line, resulting in fewer scoring opportunities for wide receivers Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd.
10. While Saints rookie 1st round pick Mark Ingram has not performed up to expectations thus far in 2011, he gets a solid matchup this week in a home game against Indianapolis. The Colts run defense ranks 30th in the NFL and has played well in only one game thus far, a Week 4 road loss to the Steelers. Ingram has been a disappointment, averaging just 3.3 yards per touch but his fantasy performance has been saved by the three touchdowns he has scored in his last four games. If he can’t get it going this week against the Colts suspect run defense, it might be time to nail Ingram to your bench, if you haven’t already done so.
11. There was a lot of noise coming out of Chicago this week, the result of quarterback Jay Cutler being caught on camera telling Bears quarterback coach Shane Day to tell offensive coordinator Mike Martz to do something that shouldn’t be repeated on a family friendly website. This shouldn’t come as any surprise and is hardly newsworthy. Martz is known for riding his quarterbacks wherever he has been, including in St. Louis with his star pupil Kurt Warner. When Todd Haley was the Cardinals offensive coordinator, he had frequent sideline blowups with head coach Ken Whisenhunt, Warner and wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Cutler’s apparent broadside amounts to little more than a tempest in a teapot.
12. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is having an MVP caliber season with his team throwing the ball far more than most expected. Having signed veteran free agent running back Darren Sproles away from San Diego and trading up to take Ingram near the end of the 1st round of the draft, the Saints were expected to run the ball more frequently than they did in 2010 when they struggled with injuries at the position. Their ability to run the ball was a key factor in their Super Bowl winning season and head coach Sean Payton was expected to attempt to replicate that strategy in 2011. However, the running game has struggled, leaving Brees to throw early and often. He threw for 383 yards in this week’s loss to the Bucs, making Brees the first player in league history to throw for 350 or more years in four consecutive games.
By: Dave Stringer — October 18, 2011 @ 4:41 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Jay Cutler, Bears
While it’s far past the time to be coming to the realization that Mike Martz isn’t going to turn Cutler into a Kurt Warner fantasy god (mostly due to his horrendous supporting cast), he has looked very good over the past two weeks. In a Week 5 loss to the Lions, Cutler singlehandedly kept the Bears in the game until the fourth quarter, completing 28 of 38 passes for 249 yards and a touchdown, despite a woeful performance by the team’s offensive line. This week against the Vikings, he completed 21 of 31 passes for 267 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s protecting the ball and completing passes in the face of tremendous pressure and that’s keeping the Bears offense on the field.
 Movin' up in Silver and Black. Carson Palmer, Raiders
If Palmer was headed to the Bay Area, his image seems more in line with that of the 49ers but he will be wearing the Silver and Black beginning this Sunday. Of course, these are the new Raiders sans Al Davis so maybe a change is afoot in Raider Nation. Nah. When you are an unemployed former number one selection in the draft who has had a highly productive career, you definitely get a Moving Up when you find a new team. The Raiders have plenty of speedsters for Palmer to throw to. We will see how many weeks it takes him to shake off the rust.
Christian Ponder, Vikings
For dynasty leagues only.
Moving Down
Rex Grossman, Redskins
Looks like Bad Rex has reappeared and Good Rex has gone missing. After throwing for 1,686 yards and 12 touchdowns with 7 interceptions over his first six starts with the Redskins, Grossman has imploded over the last two weeks. In games against the Rams and Eagles, he has thrown for 286 yards and one touchdown with 6 interceptions, including four this week. On Wednesday, head coach Mike Shanahan will announce the Redskins starting quarterback for Washington’s Week 7 matchup against the Panthers. I’m announcing now that you don’t want him in your starting fantasy line up anytime soon.
Donovan McNabb, Vikings
Another struggling veteran signal caller, McNabb found out today he’s headed to the bench. McNabb wasn’t horrible this week, completing 19 of 24 passes for 177 yards but he isn’t making any big plays, witness his four touchdown passes in six games.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Earnest Graham, Buccaneers
Starting in place of the injured LeGarrette Blount, Graham looked solid against the Saints, gaining 109 yards on 17 carries and adding two receptions for 22 yards. Speculation on Blount’s absence from a sprained MCL in his left knee has ranged from two to six weeks and third string running back Gregg Lumpkin had just two touches this week. With the Bucs having a Week 8 bye, Graham rates as a low end RB2 for this week’s game against the Bears.
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
After a disappointing first four games to the season (58 carries for 173 yards and two touchdowns) and being inactive due to a hamstring injury, Mendenhall had his best game of the season this week against the Jaguars. He put up 146 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries and looked rejuvenated in the Steelers 17-13 win. The Steelers remaining schedule gets interesting starting this week with five matchups against run defenses ranked 9th or better and four matchups against teams with run defenses ranked 18th or lower. It might just be feast or famine for Mendenhall owners for the balance of the fantasy season.
Donald Brown, Colts
Both Joseph Addai and Colts management have described his hamstring injury as “minor” and “day to day”. Yet he basically ruled himself out of the Colts Week 6 matchup against the Bengals very early last week. So, maybe he’s out for a few weeks but maybe not. What we do know is that it probably won’t be long before he’s out again with some other ailment … or maybe the same one. Either way, Brown has looked better than rookie 4th round pick Delone Carter. Over the past two weeks, Brown has 13 rushes for 73 yards and a touchdown while Carter has run the ball 26 times for 67 yards and a score. Maybe, just maybe Brown is ready to prove the Colts didn’t make a horrendous decision when they made him the 27th overall selection in the 2009 rookie draft.
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
What’s he done? Nothing. Unless 71 yards on 24 carries is your idea of production. What can we expect over the next two weeks with Felix Jones out with a high ankle sprain? Maybe something. The schedule works in the favor of Murray owners as he figures to get the starting assignment and plenty of touches in a home game against the Rams (worst run defense in the league) followed by a road contest against the Eagles (24th ranked run defense). Sometimes you get lucky, folks, and this is one of those examples.
Maurice Morris, Lions
Looks like Jahvid Best is out with another concussion, his second in 2011, and that makes Morris the man in the Lions backfield. He ain’t pretty but he’s going to be getting some touches in the Lions surprisingly productive offense.
Editor’s Note: The Lions have traded RB Jerome Harrison to the Eagles for RB Ronnie Brown. Morris should still be the main ball carrier in Week 7 with Brown used in a minimal role.
C.J. Spiller, Bills
Looks like the Spiller will be player taking the place of injured Donald Jones in the Bills offense. He regularly lined up as a receiver outside during the Bills 27-24 loss to the Giants this week, catching all five of his targets for 39 yards. That makes him an interesting bye week fill in PPR leagues that employ a flex position.
Moving Down
Stevan Ridley, Patriots
Seven touches in Week 6 and three this week. So much for the notion that Ridley was ready to steal the starting role away from BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who has 43 touches for 218 total yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks.
Reggie Bush, Dolphins
Hurt. Again.
Felix Jones, Cowboys
Hurt. Again. Sometimes this job isn’t so tough.
Mark Ingram, Saints
I feel bad piling on a rookie but his fantasy stats are so misleading that I feel it’s my job to set the record straight on Ingram. Has he been successful running the ball? No. But he’s scored three touchdowns despite averaging a paltry 3.4 yards per carry running behind the best guard tandem in the league. Has he been productive catching the ball? No, unless 3.3 yards per reception is your idea of explosive. Ingram. First round pick. No explosive plays.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Arrelious Benn, Bucs
With Mike Williams suffering through a sophomore slump, Benn has become the Bucs big play receiver in 2011. The only problem is that he’s not getting enough targets to make many big plays. This week, he caught three of his six targets for 83 yards including a 65-yard touchdown. Two weeks ago on Monday Night Football, he had an amazing 62 yard catch and run touchdown called back because he stepped out of bounds prior to catching the ball. Oops. Let’s suppose he didn’t make that brain cramp. Then Benn would have 12 receptions for 234 yards and a pair of scores over his last three games. You just get the feeling that this guy is ready to make good on the promise the Bucs saw him when they took him in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft.
Devin Hester, Bears
Is Hester finally becoming the consistent threat the Bears envisioned when they made him a full time wide receiver and handed him a $10-million a year contract and a starting job? With five receptions on seven targets in each of the last two weeks, he just might be. He’s totaled 123 yards and a score over the Bears past two games and leads the Bears receivers in targets. Looks like Hester is the Bears wide receiver to own.
A.J. Green, Bengals
Is this guy a legit WR1 six games into his rookie season? I’m ready to anoint him as such. Let’s tally up the positives. Double-digit fantasy points in five of six games? Check. Team’s top wide receiver? Check. Amazing athletic ability? Check. Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs? Nada. It’s all there, folks. Six games, 29 receptions for 453 yards and four touchdowns with a nifty 15.6 average yards per reception. Let’s call him a low end WR1 for the balance of 2011.
Jason Hill, Jaguars
Am I totally committed? Hardly. But Hill is shaping up as decent bye week filler with 11 receptions for 147 yards and a pair of touchdowns over the past two games. If you’re in a deep league and have bye week issues, Hill isn’t a ridiculous option, hard as it is for me to type that.
Moving Down
Mike Sims-Walker, Rams
It’s the penthouse to the outhouse for Sims-Walker. Signed to be the Rams number one wide receiver shortly after the lockout ended, Sims-Walker has been a bust for St. Louis with just one decent game over the team’s first four games (a six reception outing against the Giants in Week 2). After a two-drop performance in Week 4 (the Rams had a Week 5 bye), Sims-Walker was a pre-game inactive this week against the Packers. Danario Alexander, rookie Greg Salas and Brandon Gibson all played in Week 6 and with the Rams sitting at 0-5 and not contending for a playoff spot out and Brandon Lloyd on the way to town, Sims-Walker was unceremoniously handed his walking papers on Monday and lands back with his former team in Jacksonville. Stay away.
Austin Collie, Colts
Last year, Collie caught an amazing 80.6% of his targets. This year, he’s caught just 37.1% of his targets, an equally amazing total for a slot receiver. Which goes to show you that amazing cuts both ways. I’m guessing that the drop off from Peyton Manning to the combo of Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter isn’t the only reason for the huge decline in Collie’s play. There’s basically no reason to keep Collie on your roster.
Lance Moore, Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson, Saints
With Marquis Colston back in the line up and Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles playing lights out, there just aren’t enough touches to go around in New Orleans. This week, Moore got three looks while Meachem and Henderson had two each. Last week, they split 12 targets. Unless one of these three emerges, I’m planting them all on my bench.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Dallas Clark, Colts
Tammy Wynette sang “Stand By Your Man” and that’s what I’m doing with Clark, Okay, not really since I had him Moving Down last week. However, he put together his best game of the season this week against the Bengals, catching six of seven targets for 53 yards and his second touchdown of the season. He seems to be on the same page as quarterback Curtis Painter and, just as importantly, the Colts offensive line seems to be holding up better, lessening the need for Clark to stay in to block.
Moving Down
Vernon Davis, 49ers
Just the numbers, baby, just the numbers. Let’s look at average targets per game for Davis. In 2009 when he had a career year with 965 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns, it was 8.1. Last year, with the 49ers struggling on offense, it was 5.8. This year, his targets were expected to go back up with new head coach Jim Harbaugh bringing his version of the West Coast offense to the 49ers but they are down once again to 4.7 per game. Targets equal opportunity and whether it’s by design or because of declining skills, Davis is becoming a smaller part of the 49ers offense and that is hurting his fantasy value.
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