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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — October 17, 2011 @ 3:00 pm
The St. Louis Rams got a head start on Tuesday’s NFL trading deadline by acquiring wide receiver Brandon Lloyd from the Denver Broncos.
In return, published reports indicate the Rams will ship a conditional 6th round pick to Denver that becomes a 5th round pick provided Lloyd catches 30 passes over the Rams final 11 games.
 Lloyd is reunited with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. With Denver making the decision a week ago to insert second year player Tim Tebow into the starting line up at quarterback, the Broncos have clearly moved into rebuilding mode. The decision to trade Lloyd comes as little surprise given that he is in the final year of his contract and the Broncos were not willing to sign him to an extension with young players such as 2010 1st round pick Demaryius Thomas, 2010 3rd round pick Eric Decker and 2008 2nd round pick Eddie Royal on the roster.
In St. Louis, Lloyd will be reunited with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who coached the Broncos during the 2010 season when Lloyd enjoyed a career year after languishing on several rosters during the first seven years of his career. With McDaniels leading a pass first offense, Lloyd caught 77 passes for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns.
With the offense becoming more conservative under new head coach John Fox, Lloyd had seen his opportunities, and production, diminish. During four games this year, he had accumulated just 19 receptions for 283 yards and no touchdowns.
Fantasy Impact
Almost assuredly, Lloyd immediately becomes Sam Bradford’s top target in St. Louis. It will also be no surprise if free agent signee Mike Sims-Walker is given his release. Sims-Walker has been a bust for the Rams, dropping several passes which led to him being a game day inactive during this week’s game against the Packers.
The question isn’t so much whether Lloyd can duplicate his 2010 success with St. Louis (he can’t) but whether he can provide the Rams and Bradford with the true number one wide receiver they have lacked for years. On that count, Lloyd should be successful although he doesn’t rank amongst the top wide receivers in the league.
Consider solid a low end WR2 or high end WR3 for the balance of the season. If that seems too low, consider the current state of the Rams offense, which has scored two touchdowns in the last three games and put up just three points this week against the Packers.
With Lloyd in town, Danario Alexander’s six-reception, 91-yard performance this week got a whole lot less exciting. Nonetheless, it’s hard to imagine the Rams scaling him back too a minimal role given his enormous upside. He rates as a low end WR4 for 2011 but remains a solid dynasty prospect provided his gimpy knees holed up.
The biggest losers from the Lloyd acquisition are Sims-Walker and Brandon Gibson. While Sims-Walker was a long shot to see action on game day barring injury, Gibson may become an afterthought with Lloyd in town and the emergence of Alexander and rookie fourth round pick Greg Salas (eight for 77 this week).
In Denver, another fantasy loser is Tebow. The inexperienced signal caller’s job gets a whole lot tougher with his best wide receiver shipped out of town. While Eric Decker has looked solid thus far in 2011, he benefitted from the additional attention that Lloyd drew playing opposite him.
Thomas is expected to take Lloyd’s place in the starting line up but he has had trouble staying on the field, much less being productive. He missed six games last season due to injury as well as the first five games of this season. Expected to be placed on the physically unable to perform list due to a ruptured Achilles tendon suffered in 2010, Thomas proved healthy enough to play in the preseason but broke a finger on his first day of practice.
Decker becomes the Broncos top threat at wide receiver but remains a low end WR3. Thomas remains a solid prospect in dynasty leagues but there’s no point in grabbing him off the waiver wire in redraft formats unless you are truly desperate.
As for Tebow, let’s hope you weren’t relying on him in the first place.
By: Dave Stringer — October 14, 2011 @ 2:19 pm
1. There probably isn’t a team in the league better at mining late round draft picks and undrafted free agents at the wide receiver position and turning them into productive players than Buffalo. Last year, former 7th round pick Steve Johnson stepped up to become the Bills go to wide receiver and with Lee Evans traded to Baltimore, David Nelson and Donald Jones, both undrafted free agents, stepped to the forefront over the first five weeks of the season. When Jones went out of the game with a high ankle sprain this week against the Eagles, Naaman Roosevelt, another undrafted free agent, took his place and caught five of seven targets for 41 yards. He also scored a 28-yard touchdown in Week 5 on his only target. If you’re looking for an option in a deep league, Roosevelt is worth keeping an eye on.
2. The 49ers lost starting wide receiver Josh Morgan to a potentially season-ending broken leg, leaving a large hole in their starting line up. Former Jet Braylon Edwards isn’t expected to return until after the team’s Week 7 bye, which means Ted Ginn Jr. will start opposite Michael Crabtree. In reserve, San Francisco has a pair of young receivers in Kyle Williams and Brett Swain who have a combined eight career receptions. Look for opposing defenses to put increased attention on tight end Vernon Davis and that may put a damper on his production until the team’s wide receivers start producing.
3. The news out of Cleveland is that rookie 2nd round pick Greg Little will be inserted into the Browns starting line up in Week 6. Little has more athletic ability than the team’s other wide receivers and appears to have shaken off the rust after little activity during his final season in college at North Carolina. While having a player move into the starting line up is generally positive for their fantasy prospects, this move isn’t quite the panacea some have made it out to be. Little was already heavily involved in the team’s passing attack, mostly at the expense of starter Brian Robiskie, with 18 targets over the past three weeks. Look for Little to see more targets than he has but at this point there isn’t any indication that the Browns plan to reduce the roles of Mohamed Massaquoi or Josh Cribbs, who rank 2nd and 4th on the team in targets with 28 and 20.
4. Texans coach Gary Kubiak felt the need to defend wide receiver Jacoby Jones’ performance during the team’s Week 5 loss to the Raiders where Jones put up a lackluster performance in catching just one of 11 targets. As my gramma used to say, it’s not what you say, it’s what you do. To that end, Jones’ fantasy prospects should be based not on what Kubiak said but what the Texans did which was immediately go out and acquire Derrick Mason from the Jets. Jones remains an enigma, a player who clearly has the athletic ability to succeed but has failed miserably in developing a rapport with quarterback Matt Schaub during his four plus seasons in the league. Meanwhile, veteran Kevin Walter did make the most of his increased opportunities this week, catching five of six targets for 81 yards and a score. He’s the Texans wide receiver to use as your replacement for Andre Johnson, not Jones.
5. With Mason out of the picture, rookie 5th round pick Jeremy Kerley becomes the Jets slot receiver and he played well in a Week 5 loss at New England, catching all three of his targets for 35 yards and a touchdown. However, the Jets passing attack can barely provide enough production for the team’s starters so Kerley makes for a poor fantasy option. While he figures to have an increased role in the team’s offense going forward, tight end Dustin Keller figures to benefit more with Mason’s departure and the recent reduction in LaDainian Tomlinson’s playing time. Look for Keller to be featured on more short and intermediate routes.
 Driver has lost his fantasy relevance. 6. Packers head coach Mike McCarthy was agitated this week when faced with questions over the reduced role of veteran wide receiver Donald Driver. With just nine receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown, Driver has been the 5th most productive wide receiver on the roster behind Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones and rookie 2nd round pick Randall Cobb. With Driver having made his opinion known during training camp that he felt he should remain a starter, the last thing McCarthy wants is for his 5-0 Packers to lose focus over the 36-year old Driver’s playing time. Unfortunately for McCarthy, the questions are likely to keep coming because Cobb has played well enough to be a part of the team’s game planning and Jones has come on strong over the last two weeks after a slow start to the season. Look for Driver to remain little more than an afterthought in the Packers dominant passing attack.
7. Sticking with the Packers, this might be the first week in fantasy football history that an offense has eight startable players in one week. With a home game on tap against a Rams team that is ranked 31st against the run and 11th against the pass mostly because teams can run on them at will and they have been playing from so far behind, it’s not a stretch to say that wide receivers Jennings, Nelson, Jones and Cobb along with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, tight end Jermichael Finley and running backs James Starks and Ryan Grant are all worthy starters in 12 team leagues. If you’re a Rams fan, yes, it’s that sad.
8. Bucs wide receiver Mike Williams has been a major disappointment thus far in 2011 and noted to the media this week that he’s been playing poorly. However, a closer look reveals that, while Williams play isn’t on par with his performance during his rookie season, opposing defenses and quarterback Josh Freeman are also to blame. Opposing defensive coordinators have been playing softer coverages, forcing Freeman to check the ball down more frequently and causing his yards per attempt to drop from 7.2 last season to just 6.5 in 2011. In addition, he has thrown six interceptions against just three touchdowns and failed to connect on many big plays. Averaging just under eight targets per game, Williams remains the focal point of the team’s passing attack and the Bucs best hope to get increased production in that area over the balance of the season.
9. Sticking with the Bucs, the local Tampa Bay media reported late this week that running back LeGarrette Blount has a torn MCL that will keep him out of the lineup for at least four and possibly up to six weeks. If that’s the case, Earnest Graham figures to take over as the team’s starter during Blount’s absence with Kregg Lumpkin likely in store for a healthy dose of touches. The 31-year old Graham hasn’t had a 15-touch game since Week 9 of the 2008 season and there is little to suggest that he will be a workhorse back for Tampa Bay. That makes Lumpkin a speculative add in deeper leagues and also increases the likelihood the Bucs placing increased reliance on their passing attack until Blount returns.
10. Reports out of Denver indicate that the team has put wide receiver Brandon Lloyd on the trading block. If that’s the case, his fantasy owners should too. Lloyd’s remarkable 2010 season in which he caught 77 passes for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns was an amazing story. However, there is a reason why Lloyd had seven seasons of marginal or low production prior to his breakout campaign and that makes the probability of him being traded midseason, having to learn a new playbook and being productive over the balance of the season very low. In essence, if you believe Lloyd will be traded, it’s high time to move him now. And with Lloyd a free agent at season’s end and the Broncos rebuilding and having three solid young receivers in Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Eddie Royal, Lloyd’s days in Denver are numbered.
By: Dave Stringer — October 11, 2011 @ 7:49 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Matt Cassel, Chiefs
The good news is that Cassel is heating up as we’re going through bye weeks. The bad news is that he’s on a bye in Week 6. Rats. Over the last two weeks, Cassel has looked like the player we expected entering the season, solid but far from spectacular. He had his best fantasy game of the year against the Colts, throwing for 257 yards and four touchdowns, one week after throwing for 260 yards and a score against the Vikings. Here’s his schedule beginning in Week 7: Raiders (28th ranked pass defense), Chargers (2nd – okay, not so good), Dolphins (27th), Broncos (21st), Patriots (31st), Steelers (1st), Bears (26th), Jets (5th), Packers (29th) and Raiders (28th). That’s right through to Fantasy Football Championship Games in Week 16 and it looks pretty darn nice.
Curtis Painter, Colts
Turns out Painter’s not quite as clueless as he led us to believe during significant playing time in a pair of games to close out the 2009 season and in most of his preseason contests. With the Colts in desperation mode, Painter has started each of Indianapolis’ last two games and looked solid, completing 28 of 59 passes for 558 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions. That’s pretty impressive considering the state of the Colts offensive line (they were horrendous during Painter’s first start against the Bucs).
 Tebow is likely to give his fantasy owners a wild ride. Tim Tebow, Broncos
It’s Tebow time. Help yourself to what surely will be the one of the most up and down fantasy quarterbacks for the balance of the 2011 season. The Broncos were surely looking to find a reason to insert Tebow into the starting line up and incumbent starter Kyle Orton provided it this week with a dud of a performance against the Charges. The good news is that Tebow is his own goal line back and has seven rushing touchdowns (including one this week) in just 12 career games. The bad news is that it often looks like he’s throwing to opposing cornerbacks as much as his own wide receivers. Dig in for a wild ride, folks.
Moving Down
Mark Sanchez, Jets
Frustration. If you own Sanchez in a dynasty league, that’s what you’re feeling. He’s blown hot and cold for much of his career but appeared ready to emerge as an upper tier fantasy backup after three decent outings to start the season where he averaged 25.9 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, his combined point total over his last two games (Ravens and Patriots) didn’t hit 25.9 – try 22.6 including a true Week 4 dud against the Ravens with just 6.3. That one you could excuse him for but just 16.3 fantasy points on 166 yards and a pair of touchdowns against a very poor Patriots secondary is cause for concern.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Jackie Battle, Chiefs
While it’s difficult to say with certainty that Battle is a big upgrade over Thomas Jones, he did get a healthy dose of playing time this week and he certainly made the most it. In the first extensive playing time of his career, Battle had 19 carries for 119 yards and two receptions for 21 yards. His 21 touches topped the Chiefs running backs with Thomas Jones getting 12 and Dexter McCluster just five. That doesn’t mean Battle has earned the starting position for the balance of the season but it does mean he’s earned it for the time being. The Chiefs have a Week 6 bye followed by a stretch of games where they face run defenses ranked 12th or lower until they face the Packers 3rd ranked run defense in Week 15. Lightning in a bottle perhaps? You never know.
Delone Carter and Donald Brown, Colts
Starter Joseph Addai injured his hamstring this week against the Chiefs and initial reports indicate he will miss 1-3 weeks. That opens the door Carter and Brown and if this week is any indication, the Colts will ride the hot hand. Brown had been left for dead but looked like the better back of the two this week with 38 yards on eight carries. Can’t say I’d want to have to rely on either one and it’s possible this situation will remain muddled until Addai returns. Only for the desperate.
Willis McGahee, Broncos
Okay, enough already. The Broncos have clearly given up on 2009 1st round pick Knowshon Moreno. When you’ve handed the lead role to the plodding McGahee, what other conclusion can be reached? On the plus side, McGahee has topped 100 yards in three of the past four weeks. Sure, the Broncos are facing soft defenses and they play from behind but McGahee is making the most of the opportunities and it’s not like the Broncos are about ready to turn their season around, Tim Tebow or no Tim Tebow.
Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers
With Rashard Mendenhall out with a hamstring injury and replacement starter Isaac Redman suffering from cramps, Dwyer stepped into the fray and showed why Pittsburgh used a 2010 6th round pick to acquire him. Dwyer had easily his best game as a pro, gaining 107 yards on 11 carries and catching a pass for six yards. The Jaguars are on tap in Week 6 and if Mendenhall can’t go, Dwyer has likely earned at least 1/3rd of the carries in a split role with Redman.
Moving Down
LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets
After having two solid performances during the first three games of the season, LT has become a forgotten man in New York with just seven touches over the last two games. Looks like the Jets are making a concerted effort to get Shonn Greene going and he posted his best game of the season this week against the Patriots. That doesn’t bode well for LT owners.
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
See above. Relegated to 3rd down duty and nothing more. This week, that meant not one single carry. Ignore the fantasy point total which was padded with a receiving touchdown.
Dexter McCluster, Chiefs
McCluster’s touches have gone from 15 to 10 to 5 … hard to be productive without the ball. So much for McCluster being the back to attempt to replace Jamaal Charles’ production.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
Has the light finally gone on for the much maligned Raiders 2009 1st round pick? Heyward-Bey has been a colossal bust for the first two years of his career but he has shown a glimpse of promise over the past two weeks. He looked solid against the Patriots in Week 4, catching four of seven targets for 115 yards and again this week against the Texans, catching seven passes for 99 yards and a touchdown. Rookie Denarius Moore and 2nd year player Jacoby Ford were getting all the fantasy love as the Raiders wide receivers to own but Ford has been a bust and Heyward-Bey has been getting the looks in the games that both he and Moore have played (29 to 18). You know the adage – it’s all about opportunity.
Victor Cruz, Giants
Do I truly believe? Not really. But there’s no denying two things: 1. Cruz is on a hot streak and 2. quarterback Eli Manning is looking his way. Cruz’s targets have went from 5 to 9 to 11 over the past three weeks, a period in which he has caught 17 passes for 369 yards and three touchdowns. The guy seems to have a knack for making big plays. Mario Manningham is too good not to start eating into at least some of that production but Cruz is definitely startable until he proves otherwise.
Pierre Garcon, Colts
If you’ve ever read my column, you know I’m not a Pierre Garcon fan. But I am warming up to him now that he’s become new starting quarterback Curtis Painter’s favorite target in the passing game. Painter has looked his way 16 times during his past two starts compared to 15 for Reggie Wayne, with Garcon catching seven of those targets for 271 yards and four touchdowns. Hey, some of it has been on broken coverages and some of it the result of bad tackling but points are points.
Steve Breaston, Chiefs
The Chiefs offense has come around over the past two weeks and Breaston is making the most of his limited targets – just in time to help his owners through their bye weeks. He’s also shaping up as a decent flex play in leagues that employ that position, with eight receptions on ten targets for 141 yards and a pair of scores over the last two weeks. Turns out a rising tide lifts all boats in Kansas City and the Chiefs increased offensive production is extending to Breaston’s performance.
James Jones, Packers
I’ll be honest – it doesn’t take as much to impress me once the bye weeks hit. Hello, James Jones. Three week scrub becomes solid two week starter becomes who knows what. With so many solid receiving options in Green Bay, Jones’ nice two-week stretch of eight receptions for 188 yards and a pair of scores might mean nothing in the Packers Week 6 game against the Rams. Of course, it’s the Rams who are down to Al Harris, Justin King, Rod Hood, Josh Gordy and Brian Jackson at cornerback. That ain’t pretty, folks. Start all your Packers.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
He was Moving Up last week when he probably didn’t deserve and after a two reception, 36-yard performance, he probably doesn’t deserve it this week. But who exactly is going to catch the ball for the 49ers? Braylon Edwards remains out and Josh Morgan suffered a broken leg during this week’s blowout win over the Buccaneers. That leaves Crabtree and Ted Ginn Jr. as the team’s starter and T.J. Houshmandzadeh was brought in for a workout. Hey, the 49ers did score 41 points this week.
Moving Down
Jacoby Jones, Texans
With Andre Johnson out of the line up, Jones got a Moving Up last week with a qualifier that it was “as tepid a Moving Up as you’ll ever find.” If you watched any of this week’s Texans-Raiders contest, what you saw was a quarterback not on the same page with his wide receiver. If Jones wasn’t running an out pattern at the wrong depth, then it was a slant at the wrong depth. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen less chemistry between a quarterback and a wide receiver. By game’s end, Jones had caught one of eleven targets. The sad parts are that these two have been playing together since Jones came into the league in 2007 and it’s not like Jones doesn’t have talent. He just can’t get do anything with it.
Mike Williams, Bucs
Well, I’ve waited long enough and it’s time for Williams to be Moving Down. When you are the lead receiver on a team that got crushed 48-3 and all you contribute is four receptions for 28 yards despite a healthy dose of garbage time opportunity and you’ve been a disappointment for four straight games, you’re Moving Down. It’s that simple. The big plays that were there in 2010 have dried up for Williams who is averaging just 9.6 yards per reception and has just one touchdown thus far in 2011. He’s benchable, folks, and I don’t care if the bye weeks are here.
Jacoby Ford, Raiders
Hello, little used little slot receiver. Preseason reports of Ford’s ascension to top dog status amongst the Raiders wide receivers were great exaggerated (mea culpa). I no longer believe and neither should you.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Owen Daniels, Texans
Meet the fantasy beneficiary of Andre Johnson’s absence. Daniels finally looks like he’s back to being the player he was before suffering a serious knee injury at the midway point of the 2009 season. With Johnson out, Daniels had 11 targets this week, catching seven for 89 yards. Since a poor Week 1 outing, Daniels has caught 20 passes for 259 yards and three touchdowns and appears ready to reclaim his role as a top five fantasy tight end.
Jake Ballard, Giants
The bye weeks are here and there have been some disappointing tight ends and a couple that are banged up. Hello, Jake Ballard. If you’re desperate, Ballard has scored in each of his last two games (six receptions for 105 yards on seven targets) and has a solid looking schedule on the horizon with Bills 25th ranked defense up followed by a Week 7 bye, the Dolphins (27th), Patriots (31st) and 49ers (22nd). The lack of targets doesn’t give you the warm fuzzies but the touchdowns just might keep coming.
Moving Down
Dustin Keller, Jets
Last year, it lasted four weeks. This year, it last three. Two in 2012? After a solid first three weeks to open the season (16 receptions for 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns), eerily reminiscent of his first four weeks in 2010 (19 receptions for 254 yards and five touchdowns), Keller has gone stone cold with just three receptions for 19 yards over his past two games. Looks like Keller is well on his way to finishing 2011 like he finished 2010, when he caught 36 passes for 433 yards and no touchdowns over his final 12 games.
Dallas Clark, Colts
It seems like it happens to one stud tight end every year and this year, it is Clark’s turn. The O-line turns turnstile and the tight end has to block. Welcome to Clark’s world. He’s averaging just 5.6 targets per game after averaging 8.4 during the 2009 and 2010 seasons. And with the Colts offense struggling for much of 2011, it’s not like Clark has made up for the lack of looks by finding the end zone more often (one touchdown this season). He’s officially benchable.
By: Dave Stringer — October 7, 2011 @ 1:27 pm
1. Big news coming out of Miami this week with word that quarterback Chad Henne will miss the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury suffered during the Dolphins loss to the Chargers. Henne’s injury likely spells doom both for his future as the team’s starting quarterback as well the future of head coach Tony Sparano. The Dolphins needed to contend for a playoff spot this season in order for Sparano to earn a contract extension but the chances of that happening with Miami sitting at 0-4 and Henne out for the season are remote at best. Sparano got the kiss of death this week when the team’s majority owner Steven Ross gave him a vote of confidence. As for Henne, he is an unrestricted free agent at season’s end and has done little to suggest that the Dolphins will re-sign him, having compiled a 13-18 record as the team’s starting quarterback.
2. With Henne out of the picture, the Dolphins will turn to veteran journeyman Matt Moore to take his spot in the starting line up. The team also signed Sage Rosenfels this week to bolster the depth chart and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he takes over at some point. Moore started for the Panthers at the end of the 2009 season, compiling a 4-1 record with eight touchdowns and just a pair of interceptions. However, he bombed in the starting role in 2010, winning just one of six starts before suffering a season-ending injury.
3. Dolphin central this week. If you’re wondering what the impact of Miami replacing Henne with Moore for the team’s wide receivers, more specifically Brandon Marshall, here is what you need to know. Despite having Steve Smith at his disposal in Carolina, Moore has averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt, making him more of a checkdown artist than Henne. Moore clearly does not possess Henne’s arm strength so there is little reason to suggest that Marshall will be able to deliver the big plays that were missing from the Dolphins offense for most of the 2010 season. From a fantasy perspective, that makes running back Reggie Bush the player most likely to benefit with Moore in the starting line up.
4. The Rams placed wide receiver Danny Amendola on injured reserve this week. Amendola was the team’s top receiver in 2010, catching 85 passes for 689 yards and three touchdowns. The Rams attempted to upgrade their receivers this year, signing former Jaguar Mike Sims-Walker and using three draft picks on tight end Lance Kendricks (2nd round), Austin Pettis (3rd) and Greg Salas (4th). Unfortunately for the Rams and quarterback Sam Bradford, that hasn’t worked out as planned. That quartet has combined to catch just 30 of 68 targets for 329 yards and no touchdowns while dropping a several passes, including some in key situations. St. Louis has turned to Danario Alexander over the last three weeks (23 targets) while reducing the role of Brandon Gibson this past week (one target). However, the receiver who may ultimately provide a boost to the Rams passing attack is Mark Clayton. Clayton is eligible to come off the physically unable to perform list after Week 6 and was Bradford’s main target during the early part of the 2010 season. Despite being acquired from the Ravens at the end of the preseason, Clayton caught 22 passes for 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns during his first four games before suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 5.
 Rushing into the record books. 5. Thus far in 2011, Eagles quarterback Michael Vick has not been able to replicate his 2010 production but he has a chance to reach a league milestone during this week’s road game against Buffalo. Vick needs just 71 yards to surpass Randall Cunningham to become the league’s all-time leading rusher amongst quarterbacks. Considering Vick is just 31 years old and does not appear to have lost any of the speed he entered the league with, the only obstacle to him making this record virtually untouchable is remaining injury free. If only he could start scoring some touchdowns for his fantasy owners (none so far in 2011 after scoring nine in just 12 games last season).
6. Last week, I told you that there was little chance of the Broncos handing over the leading running back role to Willis McGahee, mainly due to his age, lack of explosiveness and because it made sense for them to figure out what they had in former 1st round pick Knowshon Moreno. Denver head coach John Fox thought otherwise, stating this week that McGahee had earned the right to be the team’s starter after a pair of 100-yard rushing efforts over the last three weeks. I guess what I was missing was that McGahee was brought in by Fox and Moreno was acquired by the previous regime. That means I forgot the golden rule that all NFL head coaches prefer to provide the solution rather than have the solution be on the roster when they arrive. Nonetheless, McGahee is averaging a pedestrian 3.8 yards per carry and just 4.5 yards per reception so there is a decent chance Moreno ends up in the lead role soon enough.
7. The scuttlebutt surrounding the Redskins running back situation is that it’s best to avoid the teams’ three running backs altogether for fantasy purposes. Tim Hightower looked solid in the preseason, claiming the starting role on opening day from an injured Ryan Torain with rookie 4th round pick Roy Helu set as the team’s main backup. Sure enough, head coach Mike Shanahan seems to have changed that rotation with the emergence of Torain this week against the Rams (19 carries, 135 yards and a touchdown). All you had to do was watch that game to realize the talent differential between Torain and Hightower. The competition for the lead back role isn’t between Torain and Hightower (as most pundits have it), it’s between Torain and Helu. While Torain clearly is the more powerful of the two runners, Helu has the breakaway speed and upside that Shanahan craves in his running backs. Look for Torain to be given every chance to keep the job but history says that either injury or performance will provide Helu with an opportunity to start, probably sooner rather than later.
8. On initial glance, the news that Bengals running back Cedric Benson was facing a three game suspension for his off the field indiscretions couldn’t have come at a worse time for his fantasy owners with the bye weeks beginning this week. However, it appears that Benson’s appeal of his suspension could take a few, if not several, weeks to be resolved as his legal team is challenging the league’s right to suspend players for their off the field actions when they were locked out. Benson owners should hold off on hitting the panic button until this situation is resolved.
9. And on a somewhat football related note, I’m going to miss Hank Williams Jr. doing the introduction to Monday Night Football. It used to send shivers up my spine when I was younger, as it heightened the anticipation of what was generally a key game, often between division rivals. Not that I’m condoning his actions.
By: Dave Stringer — October 4, 2011 @ 2:48 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Cam Newton, Panthers
Let’s do the projections. Passing yards: 5,544. Passing touchdowns: 20. Rushing touchdowns: 16. Fantasy points: 507. And it’s not like Newton’s been putting up these numbers against bad defenses. By season’s end, Chicago and Green Bay figure to be in the top ten in total defense, Arizona should be middle of the pack and the Jaguars will likely be near the bottom. In fact, if you toss out the Jacksonville game where the weather was horrendous, Newton is averaging 37.3 points per game. I’m rolling with him as my number one unless I own Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Michael Vick or Drew Brees.
Moving Down
 Schaub becomes is a big question mark with AJ out of the lineup. Matt Schaub, Texans
Schaub hasn’t been the same fantasy producer since Arian Foster burst onto the scene in 2010 and with Foster back in the line up for this week’s game against the Steelers, he had his worst fantasy performance since Week 5 of last season with just 11.0 fantasy points on 138 yards passing and one touchdown. Even worse than that, it appears that wide receiver Andre Johnson will miss time with an injured hamstring. Jacoby Jones would take Johnson’s spot in the starting line up but he has been a disappointment. If AJ is out, the Texans will turn to Foster even more than they did against the Steelers (30 carries), rendering Schaub even more of a question mark than he has been since the end of the 2009 season.
Sam Bradford, Rams
A quarter of the way into the 2011 season and it’s time to shelve the notion that new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is going to turn the Rams passing attack into one of the league’s best and make Bradford a solid fantasy starter. Where to begin… the Rams lead the league in dropped passes, the offensive line has given up a league worst 19 sacks and McDaniels continues to feed wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker and tight end Lance Kendricks who have combined to catch 39.6% of their passes (19 of 48).
Running Backs
Moving Up
Arian Foster, Texans
He’s back. And with a bang. Not only did Foster return with a vengeance, gaining 155 yards and touchdown on 30 carries against the Steelers in his first full game of the season, the Texans coaching staff kept backup Ben Tate nailed to the bench, which may or may not have been the result of a groin injury. Tate had just two carries despite the team’s heavy reliance on the run and maybe, just maybe the assumption that Tate had earned himself a solid chunk of playing time was fallacious.
Stevan Ridley, Patriots
Ridley has now outperformed starter BenJarvis Green-Ellis for two straight games, gaining 97 yards and a touchdown this week on 10 carries after putting up 44 yards on seven carries in Week 3. The Law Firm also performed decently in the Patriots 31-19 win over the Raiders with 75 yards and a score on his 16 carries but it appears that this will be a timeshare situation moving forward. The only caveat here is that BJGE is unlikely to make a mistake that causes him to lose playing time while the rookie Ridley is far more likely to lose a fumble or a blow a pass protection that lands him a spot in Bill Belichick’s doghouse and on the bench.
Ryan Torain, Redskins
I’ve been preaching that Tim Hightower is a dud for weeks (read it here and down at the bottom here). Okay, maybe I was banking a little more on rookie 4th round pick Roy Helu than Torain. This week, head coach Mike Shanahan had Hightower on a short leash after his lackluster performance against the Cowboys that caused Helu to see time in the fourth quarter for the second week in a row. Sure enough, Hightower disappointed with just 24 yards on eight carries, opening the door for Torain who ran roughshod over the Rams, gaining 135 yards and a touchdown on his 19 runs. That’s a nifty 7.1 yards per carry and it’s worth noting that he averaged 4.5 last year while Hightower is at 3.5 in 2011. The best part is that Torain’s almost assuredly available on your league’s waiver wire. Giddy up.
Matt Forte, Bears
With Forte, it’s by ground or by air. He’s the FedEx of Fantasy Football, getting the job done one way or the other each week. His receiving production carried the day for the first three weeks of the season (22 receptions for 287 yards and a score) and this week, the mail got delivered on the ground to the tune of 205 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers. He’s hit double-digit fantasy points in three of the Bears first four games and is averaging 18.9 points per game. Can you say RB1? This isn’t a Sell High. It’s the type of good, solid production that nets you a championship.
Isaac Redman, Steelers
Rashard Mendenhall suffered a hamstring injury that caused him to miss most of the second half of the Steelers loss this week to the Texans. Redman and Mewelde Moore split the workload with Redman finishing with six carries for 40 yards and he even chipped in a reception for 12 yards. Of the two, Redman is the running back to own if Mendenhall were to miss any time given that he would get the goal line work. The Steelers are a mess and so is their offensive line but Redman would likely be worth a look in your lineup if he ends up starting.
Moving Down
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
Mea culpa. I was wrong or at least it seems that way. Either Moreno re-injured his hamstring this week or the Broncos new coaching staff isn’t interested in finding out whether he can be the team’s lead running back. Back in the lineup this week after a two game absence, Moreno carried the ball just twice while Willis McGahee had 15 carries for 103 yards in a blowout loss to the Packers. McGahee’s performance doesn’t count for much considering the Packers were up by 11 by the end of the first quarter and never looked back. But Moreno’s lack of use does because he is definitely the better receiver of the two but had just one target despite the Broncos needing to pass for much of the game.
Peyton Hillis, Browns
I’m not a doctor so I can’t say with certainty that strep throat could cause you to miss a start and then need to split time the following week. However, since I doubt that’s the case, the only reason to explain Hillis getting 15 touches and Montario Hardesty getting 12 is that the Browns running back rotation has quickly turned into a timeshare. Hardesty has looked decent given his increased playing time over the past two weeks, gaining 157 yards on 21 touches. The next week or two will tell us whether Hillis has a chance to reclaim his 2010 fantasy glory this season but the odds seem set against him (and his owners).
Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster, Chiefs
I told you the answer to losing Jamaal Charles wasn’t either of his handcuffs but I can’t say I thought Jones and McCluster would be this bad. They have COMBINED (yes, combined) for 17 fantasy points over the past two weeks against the Chargers and Vikings. That’s ten points for McCluster and seven for Jones. If you were planning on riding one of these guys, it’s time to move on.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Julio Jones, Falcons
The Falcons 1st round pick has been dynamite thus far in his rookie season, with 24 receptions for 342 yards. Impressive indeed but when you scroll down FFToday’s season statistics at wide receiver, he’s currently the 28th ranked fantasy wideout. Not impressive as we’d expect and it’s all to do with touchdowns. See, Julio has looked great but he hasn’t found the end zone just yet. If his owner sees him as just a WR3, then it’s high time to hand over a decent trade offer. Jones has topped 100 yards in each of his last two games and got heavy use this week against the Seahawks with 17 targets, catching 11 passes for 127 yards. He’s a solid WR2 for the balance of the season.
Pierre Garcon, Colts
Monday Night Football. Two long touchdowns and 146 yards receiving, both career highs. You know all of your fellow owners saw it. He’s Moving Up but he’s also Sell high, folks.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
Grabbing five of nine targets for 68 yards and failing to find the end zone generally isn’t going to get you Moving Up. But it does for Crabtree. Stick with me here. He was left for dead, fantasy persona non grata. Five for 68 against a solid Eagles secondary is pretty decent production. He’s apparently back to full health. And maybe, just maybe the 49ers offense has something to build on after a solid, come from behind win over Philadelphia.
Laurent Robinson, Cowboys
If you’ve seen Robinson in a few games, you know that he’s a talented wide receiver. Lack of talent isn’t the issue, staying healthy is. And when you don’t contribute on special teams, you need to be in the starting lineup and teams generally like their starters to be reliable (aka healthy). With Miles Austin out of the lineup with a quad injury, Robinson had a solid outing, catching seven of ten targets for 116 yards. The Cowboys have a Week 5 bye and Austin is expected to be back in the line up for Week 6 but Robinson is worth taking a shot on in deeper leagues since it seems like Austin and Dez Bryant are taking turns on the inactive list.
Jacoby Jones, Texans
Well, Andre Johnson owners can rest assured that Jones has no chance of replacing AJ’s production so better to find another option. That being said, if you’re in a deep league and need to find something, Jones is worth a shot. There you have it – a tepid a Moving Up as you’ll ever find. Yes, it was a slow week for Moving Up at the wide receiver position.
Moving Down
Mario Manningham, Giants
Manningham was one of this season’s fantasy darlings at wide receiver, expected to post a breakout season after a pair of solid seasons as the Giants third option behind Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith. With Smith out of the picture having signed with the Eagles and no proven slot receiver or tight end on the roster, Manningham figured to be in line for plenty of targets. However, his stock is sliding after concussion suffered in Week 2, a subpar performance to start the season from quarterback Eli Manning and a trip to the bench this week against the Cardinals after he apparently ran some wrong patterns. That gets Manningham Moving Down but also makes him a great Buy Low opportunity since Cruz is nothing more than a slot receiver and the Giants have no one behind Manningham capable of starting outside.
Devery Henderson, Saints
Let’s see. With a full slate of cast and characters at wide receiver and tight end for the first time this season and diminutive running back Darren Sproles earning plenty of touches, Henderson had one target and no receptions. Hopefully Henderson’s owners enjoyed the nice three week run he had because, barring injury, it’s not going to repeat itself.
Plaxico Burress, Jets
You generally need to get open to get the ball and it doesn’t seem like Plaxico can do that on a regular basis anymore. The Jets have opened the season against four teams with that either have suspect secondaries or injury issues in the secondary and he hasn’t been able to do much with just ten receptions on 25 yards. Sure, he’s scored two touchdowns but it’s a roll of the dice to be relying on touchdowns for fantasy production.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Jimmy Graham, Saints
Just like Henderson is Moving Down because his looks decreased with everybody available, Graham is Moving Up because he was quarterback Drew Brees’ main weapon this week against the Jaguars with career highs in targets, receptions and yards. Graham caught ten of his 14 targets for 132 yards and a TD and the performance helped make him the 2nd ranked tight end for the season behind only Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots. Don’t expect that to change with Graham having a shot to be the top ranked tight end by season’s end with Antonio Gates injury situation ensuring he will not earn that title.
Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
Here’s a begrudging Moving Up to Gonzalez who, on first glance, appears to be having a bit of a renaissance season in Atlanta. The 35 year-old has four touchdowns in his last three games and 21 receptions for 229 yards on the season, this after a lackluster 2010 sin which he posted a career low 9.4 yards per reception and topped 50 receiving yards just four times. He is clearly benefitting from the extra attention afforded wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, not to mention the Falcons inability to run the ball. I’m not sold on him keeping it up so this is definitely a Sell High opportunity.
Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
After two games, it sure looked like the pundits who had predicted that strong armed quarterback Matthew Stafford would lighten Pettigrew’s load in favor of chucking it downfield to Calvin Johnson et al were right on the mark. The 2009 1st round pick had just nine targets over the first two weeks but his role changed dramatically starting in a Week 3 win over the Vikings. With running back Jahvid Best struggling, Pettigrew essentially became the Lions short yardage option and that role continued this week against the Cowboys. He has chalked up 22 targets over the past two weeks, catching 17 passes for 176 yards, and there’s little reason to expect that to change. If only he could find the end zone (no touchdowns in 2011).
Moving Down
Fred Davis, Redskins
Davis looked like a world-beater over the first two games of the season, catching 11 of 13 targets for 191 yards and a score. And then head coach Mike Shanahan inexplicably forgot about him against a Cowboys squad with a pair of coverage challenged safeties and again this week against a Rams squad whose secondary allowed three touchdowns passes to Ravens rookie 2nd round pick Torrey Smith. I guess Shanny is extending his fantasy curse from running backs to also include tight ends.
Brent Celek, Eagles
Second year player Clay Harbor caught three passes for 55 yards and a touchdown this week, nearly eclipsing Celek’s production for the year. If there was a flicker of hope for Celek reclaiming his fantasy status from the 2009 season when he finished as the fourth ranked fantasy tight end (and it’s debatable whether there was a flicker), those hopes should now be extinguished. To the scrap heap, even in the deepest of leagues.
By: Dave Stringer — September 30, 2011 @ 11:12 am
1. Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton spent all of the preseason looking over his shoulder at 2010 1st round pick Tim Tebow and the evidence is beginning to mount that a change may be in order in Denver. With one win and a pair of losses to open the season, Orton’s record over his last 25 games now stands at an unimpressive 6-19. While that may be an indictment of the Broncos as much as Orton, he has committed turnovers at key moments in each of the team’s losses and that hasn’t endured him to a fan base already clamoring to see Tebow in the starting line up.
2. Staying with the Broncos, there has been much speculation that former Raven Willis McGahee may take over as the team’s starting running back ahead of 2009 1st round pick Knowshon Moreno. Which begs the question – how does that make any sense? While Moreno has not lived up to his draft billing, the aging McGahee needed only two games of heavy use to prove that he is no longer a capable starter, gaining just 153 yards on 50 carries. He padded his fantasy stats with a pair of touchdowns (one on the ground and one receiving) making him an obvious sell-high candidate. While Moreno may prove that he isn’t the solution to solving the Broncos inconsistent rushing attack, there can be little doubt that McGahhe certainly isn’t the answer. Look for Denver to wisely spend the balance of the season figuring out just what they have in Moreno with McGahee relegated to a backup role.
3. Sticking with running back controversies, we move to Cleveland where 2nd year player Montario Hardesty subbed in for Peyton Hillis against Miami and had a solid game with 67 yards on 14 carries and three receptions for 19 yards. That prompted head coach Pat Shurmur to suggest that Hardesty was worthy of an increased role. However, that should come as no surprise since Hardesty was barely used during the first two games of the season, with only eight touches, this after the Browns spend the offseason saying they wanted to reduce Hillis’ workload due to his struggles down the stretch last season (272 rushing yards and no touchdowns over Cleveland’s final five games). This isn’t a case of Hardesty being a legitimate challenger to Hillis’ spot in the starting line up. It’s the Browns getting around to doing what they said they were going to do all along.
4. Next up we move to New England where rookie 3rd round pick Stevan Ridley is getting a lot of hype for out producing BenJarvis Green-Ellis this week. Ridley subbed in for Green-Ellis and looked impressive in gaining 42 yards on six carries and catching one pass for eight yards. Meanwhile, Green-Ellis struggled to his worst rushing day since Week 9 of last season with just 18 yards on 10 carries. Just don’t look for Ridley in the starting line up any time soon. The rookie missed time in training camp and the Patriots are not going to jeopardize the health of quarterback Tom Brady to get Ridley touches until he’s gotten all of the team’s blitz protections down pat. Not to mention that Green-Ellis was the Patriots most successful rusher since Corey Dillon last season, gaining 1,008 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground.
 Offensive line woes may hamper Turner's fantasy value moving forward. 5. The Falcons have struggled to a 1-2 record to open the season and head coach Mike Smith has squarely put the blame on the team’s offensive line. This week, Smith told his offensive lineman that he was opening up all of the team’s starting positions to competition due to the poor play in both pass blocking and run blocking. Quarterback Matt Ryan has been sacked 13 times in three games and while running back Michael Turner is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, that statistic is misleading. The Falcons trailed early against the Bears and were more focused on stopping big plays, allowing Turner to run 10 times for 100 yards, and the Falcons Week 2 opponent, the Eagles, have perhaps the worst run defense in the league. While general manager Thomas Dimitroff has done a superb job of talent evaluation on the pro and college levels, the decision not to re-sign starting left guard Harvey Dahl is proving to be ill founded since he brought a mean streak to the unit that appears to be lacking. Unfortunately for Smith, there are no solid veterans or promising prospects behind his starters. Backups Joe Hawley, Will Svitek, Mike Johnson and Brett Romberg have a combined 24 career starts with 18 of those belonging to Romberg, the least likely backup to work his way into the starting line up. That likely ensures the current starting five will retain their jobs, with Dahl’s replacement Garrett Reynolds the only starter in jeopardy of being benched, so improvement will need to come from within and that may not bode well for the fantasy prospects of Ryan and Turner.
6. There are a number of head coaches on the hot seat due to the play of their teams over the first three weeks of the season but the Jaguars Jack Del Rio has managed to escaped much of the criticism that has been leveled at the Chiefs Todd Haley, Andy Reid of the Eagles and the Dolphins Tony Sparano amongst others. Jacksonville sits at 1-2 having eked out an opening week win over Tennessee followed by a crushing defeat to the Jets and a six point loss to Carolina. However, Del Rio’s decision to jettison quarterback David Garrard in favor of Luke McCown is looking worse each week as the AFC South is there for the taking. Perennial division winner Indianapolis has struggled mightily without Peyton Manning, current division leader Houston has a history of underperforming in big games and Tennessee sits at 2-1 but appears to be more pretender than contender. Meanwhile, Del Rio was forced to quickly abandon the McCown decision in favor of rookie 1st round pick Blaine Gabbert who looked serviceable running the team’s dink and dunk offense in his first start. Del Rio’s miscalculation will almost certainly earn the wrath of owner Wayne Weaver given that a run at the AFC South title seems improbable but was a definite possibility with Garrard. Such a scenario would have reenergized the team’ fan base which is a big concern for Weaver.
7. If you subscribe to the theory that starting running backs in the NFL need to be able to successfully run the ball to maintain their jobs, then it might be time to sell high on the Lions Jahvid Best. Best has put up 44.5 fantasy points over the Lions first three games, rushing for 149 yards and a touchdown and gaining 183 yards through the air to go along with another touchdown. However, he is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry after averaging 3.2 in 2010 for which most of us gave him a free pass due to the numerous injuries that marred his rookie season. Considering the Lions have featured one of the most dynamic passing offenses in the league over the first three weeks of the season, there’s no free pass in 2011. What Best amounts to is a running back that relies on touchdowns and passing yards for points and that is a recipe for inconsistent production, not to mention a spot on the bench when a team is trying to eat up the clock.
By: Dave Stringer — September 27, 2011 @ 2:19 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
Every year, a couple of quarterbacks seemingly come out of nowhere and put together a career season and Fitzpatrick is in line for such a performance in 2011. He ain’t pretty, he’s just getting a lot of yards and wins for his team and for his fantasy owners. After three weeks, it’s high time for his owners to start thinking about riding him and moving whoever they acquired to be their fantasy starter in a trade to shore up their roster. Fitzpatrick has 841 passing yards and nine touchdowns for the season but his yardage total isn’t overly impressive because he was limited to 208 yards passing in a Week 1 blowout win over the Chiefs (offset by four touchdown passes). He looks starter worthy for the remainder of the season.
Mike Kafka, Eagles
I had him here last week. Just saying. With Michael Vick possibly out with a badly bruised right hand, Kafka has a chance to be under center in a Week 4 matchup against a 49er secondary that is generous to opposing offenses. He didn’t look as good this week as he did last (two interceptions in mop up duty) but he is worth a look if he plays and you are desperate for a starter this week.
Moving Down
Michael Vick, Eagles
He’s not Moving Down just because he’s hurt, although the evidence is mounting that the odds of him staying healthy for an extended period are extremely low. He’s also here because he hasn’t been that good… certainly nowhere near as productive as he was in 2010. Vick is averaging just over 200 yards passing per game despite facing a porous Rams secondary, the Falcons mid-tier passing defense and a banged up Giants secondary. What’s also hurting is that he hasn’t been able to pad his fantasy stats with rushing touchdowns, having failed to find the end zone on the ground in 2011 after having nine rushing touchdowns in 12 games last year.
Running Backs
Moving Up
 Ryan Mathews is taking over the Chargers backfield. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
It sure looked like a boy became a man this week as Mathews ran all over the Chiefs defense. With Mathews adding short yardage situations and receiving chores to his regular workload, he had his finest day as a pro, rushing for 98 yards and a pair of scores and catching four passes for 51 yards. Mike Tolbert played strictly as a backup and the question is whether that is his new role or whether his snaps were limited as a result of a calf injury. Given Mathews performance and Tolbert’s lackluster start to the season (2.6 yards per carry), look for Mathews to get a much bigger workload going forward.
LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets
Do you get the feeling the light’s never going to go on for Shonn Greene? Despite facing some mediocre run defenses (Cowboys, Jaguars, Raiders), he is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on 41 rushes for 134 yards and a score. Meanwhile, Tomlinson is chipping in on passing downs and looking like he did over the early part of 2010. At this point, he has 30.9 fantasy points to 25.4 for Greene. If you buy the theory that the Jets aren’t going to be blowing anybody out, then LT should be getting a fair amount of work. He’s a decent flex option and that’s a step up from what was expected in the preseason.
Joseph Addai, Colts
It’s renaissance week on Moving Up, Moving Down. Next we present Joseph Addai, frequently injured, easily forgotten but highly productive this week against a stingy Steelers run defense. Rookie 4th round pick Delone Carter had just four touches while Addai carried the rock 17 times for 86 yards and a score. That’s impressive production against Pittsburgh. Maybe, just maybe the Colts have figured out that running the ball is preferable to having an aging Kerry Collins or an inexperienced Curtis Painter chucking it.
Kendall Hunter, 49ers
If there were any lingering doubts as to who Frank Gore’s handcuff was, they were answered this week when he went out with a right ankle sprain. Hunter stepped in and looked decent, gaining 26 yards on nine carries including a game winning seven-yard touchdown. Hunter had a solid training camp to wrestle the backup job away from Anthony Dixon and figures to get the start next week if Gore can’t go. That game is on the road against an Eagles run defense that looks absolutely horrible and is ranked 30th in the league. That makes Hunter worthy of a start if Gore is out.
Alfonso Smith, Cardinals
LaRod Stephens-Howling was supposed to Beanie Wells backup and then Chester Taylor was signed and he was supposed to be Wells’ backup. So much for that. With Wells out this week against the Seahawks, Smith stepped in and ran for 54 yards on 17 carries and caught three passes for 21 yards. Meanwhile, Taylor looked washed up, gaining just 20 yards on 8 carries while catching one pass for 12 yards. You can hardly say that Smith looked great but what you can say is that Beanie is one of the best in the league at finding a way out of the line up. This time, it was a hamstring and we all know how tricky they can be.
Moving Down
Chris Johnson, Titans
I gave him three weeks and it turns out that was one week too many. Against a Broncos run defense that has struggled since, oh say, the Karl Mecklenburg days, Johnson was abysmal, gaining just 21 yards on 13 carries. And you can’t blame the Titans passing attack for allowing opposing defenses to drop eight and nine man fronts on rushing downs since Matt Hasselbeck is looking like he’s 28, not 36. In fact, the passing game helped pad Johnson’s fantasy stats as he caught four passes for 54 yards. Expect better days ahead but maybe those days are further off than was expected after his lengthy holdout.
Tim Hightower, Redskins
I don’t own Hightower now, I never have and I never will. Why? He’s just not that good. If there’s a poster boy for Sell High, he is it. The Redskins turned up the O in the preseason and Hightower looked great. Then the season opened and with opposing defenses not going plan vanilla, Hightower’s true colors begin to show. This week against Dallas, he managed just 41 yards on 14 carries but his fantasy performance was saved with a touchdown pass at the goal line. For the season, he is averaging 3.5 yards per carry and the odds of head coach Mike Shanahan sticking with that kind of production with dynamic rookie 4th round pick Roy Helu and Ryan Torain (4.5 yards per carry in the same offense last season) in reserve are pretty low.
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
Of all the running backs generally ranked in the top ten, Mendenhall generally been the one the most likely not to give his fantasy owners the warm fuzzies. Sure, he plays in a Steelers offense determined to get him the ball but their offensive line has had their issues over the past couple of season and this year is shaping up to be no different. The red lights should be flashing when a player of Mendenhall’s caliber can only manage 37 yards on 18 carries against a Colts run defense that is amongst the smallest in the league in the front seven. For the season, Mendenhall has is averaging a paltry 3.0 yards per carry with 148 yards on 49 carries despite two of those games being against the Colts and Seahawks. It’s one thing to get shut down by the Ravens (as happened in Week 1), it’s quite another to get shut down by these teams.
James Starks, Packers
Can you say yo-yo? Starks was Moving Up two weeks straight but this week, he’s moving down courtesy of a disheartening 11 carry, five yard performance against the Bears coupled with Ryan Grant’s 17 carry, 92 yard outing. With Grant questionable this week with a bruised kidney, Starks figures to get another shot against a suspect Denver run defense and he needs to make the most of it.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Torrey Smith, Ravens
Well, if Smith isn’t the top wide receiver Moving Up, then my credibility goes out the window (would only need to be one of those small basement windows). Smith saw one target over the Ravens first two games but got an opportunity this week with Lee Evans out of the line up and absolutely lit up the Rams secondary by catching five of his nine targets for 152 yards and three touchdowns. Smith did it with pure speed, blowing past Rams defenders repeatedly (quarterback Joe Flacco missed him an open deep route in the end zone). While Smith looked great and may have Wally Pipped Evans, it’s worth noting that most of his yardage came against Rams reserve cornerback Justin King, who was starting in place Ron Bartell, and 2nd year safety Darian Stewart who was making his first career start.
Nate Washington, Titans
Kenny Britt was Moving Up last week and it’s Washington’s turn courtesy of Britt’s season ending knee injury. Although Washington has never become the complete player the Titans envisioned when they signed him away from the Steelers after the 2008 season, he assumes the number one wide receiver role in Tennessee with Britt out and his performance over the first three games of the season indicate that he just might be able to perform as one for the first time in his career. Washington has caught 21 of his 27 targets this season (a nifty 77.8% completion percentage) for 258 yards and one touchdown. Consider him a low-end WR2 for the balance of the season.
Victor Cruz, Giants
Let’s be honest. Watching Cruz play, it’s easy to tell that he’s not the most talented wide receiver in the league (my wife remarked that he looked slow on his 74-yard touchdown reception). But there’s a big hole in a Giants offense that is desperate for a player to step up and take the place of the departed Steve Smith and Cruz made a huge claim to that role with his three reception, 110 yard, two touchdown performance this week. In addition to the long touchdown pass, Cruz outfought Eagles cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (you may have heard of him) for a 28-yard touchdown reception. More recommended for PPR leagues and those that employ a flex position but still worth adding in all formats considering Mario Manningham’s injury situation and history of inconsistent performances.
Michael Jenkins, Vikings
Honestly, this is as lukewarm an endorsement as you may ever see in Moving Up. He’s clearly not the Vikings most talented wide receiver but he seems to be the one who plays the most snaps. If you’ve given up on Bernard Berrian (and you should since the Vikings surely will once they see he has caught one of his ten targets), then Jenkins is the go to own outside of Harvin. Or maybe he’s the Vikings receiver to own since he has 20.3 fantasy points and Harvin has 20.4. He can certainly be had for less than it would cost to trade for Harvin. Sometimes it pays to look through the bargain bins.
Dane Sanzenbacher, Bears
Seven targets and a touchdown in each of his last two games. Let’s face it – Roy Williams isn’t the answer (no receptions on four targets this week with a drop), and they demoted Johnny Knox for Williams. Devin Hester runs screen and flys and Earl Bennett was out this week with a chest injury. For larger leagues only.
Moving Down
DeSean Jackson, Eagles
Jackson has put up decidedly mediocre numbers over the past two weeks after having a solid Week 1 outing against the Rams with six receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown. After watching Torrey Smith light up St. Louis, we’ll put an asterisk beside that one. The Falcons and Giants both gave Jackson a healthy dose of double coverage, limiting him to two receptions in each game and 51 total receiving yards. The blue print is out there. Jackson is clearly talented enough to beat double coverage but the odds of that happening with either an injured Vick or Mike Kafka under center are slim.
Mike Thomas, Jaguars
Should wide receivers who put up 11.5 fantasy points be Moving Down? In this case, you betcha. Thomas has some positives being the lead wide receiver on a team that figures to be behind early and often and he’s currently 8th in the league in targets with 29. However, he’s turned those targets into just 139 yards so at some point, the Jaguars are going to start dishing those out to somebody else. Amongst the top 30 wide receivers in targets, Thomas has the fewest yards, behind only Mike Williams of Tampa Bay who has 89 yards on 22 targets.
Bernard Berrian, Vikings
As noted above, one reception in ten targets doesn’t get you much of a spot in the game plan.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Owen Daniels, Texans
Admit it. You thought that was a typo and it was supposed to say James Casey. This is why it’s important to watch the games. While Casey had the third highest point total amongst tight ends with five receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown and 11 yards rushing on one carry, 62 of his receiving yards came on a blown coverage and the rushing yards were also a gift as the Saints were clearly not expecting him to get the ball. Basically, the Texans did a wonderful job of surprising the Saints by giving a healthy number of touches to Casey and that only works once. More exciting was seeing Daniels get nine targets and catching five of those for 76 yards and a touchdown. Wide receivers Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones are AWOL in the passing game (five combined targets this week although Walters scored on a fluke play) and that makes Daniels an enticing tight end to have.
Moving Down
Kellen Winslow, Bucs
A knee injury may have slowed Winslow this week and helped cause a 2 for 20 day but the bottom line is that the Bucs passing attack has been woeful and Winslow has not been able to find the end zone or make any big plays. For the season, he has just 12 receptions for 130 yards on 20 targets and there’s a disturbing trend developing. Winslow hasn’t had double-digit targets since Week 7 of last season and since that game he is averaging just 5.6 targets per game. Sell now.
By: Dave Stringer — September 23, 2011 @ 12:00 pm
1. If Week 1 wasn’t enough evidence that Fred Davis has clearly overtaken Chris Cooley as the Redskins main receiving threat at tight end, then Week 2 cemented that notion. A week after catching five passes for 105 yards, Davis had six receptions for 86 yards and a reception this week against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, Cooley has had just five targets in two weeks and went without a reception for the first time since Week 5 of the 2009 season. Look for Davis to continue to be targeted heavily in the passing game with Cooley relegated to a secondary role and likely to be jettisoned off the roster next season unless he accepts a massive reduction from his scheduled $3.8-million salary for the 2012 season.
 Welker benefits with Hernandez on the sideline. 2. Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez has had a strong start to the 2011 season with 14 receptions for 165 yards and a pair of touchdowns during New England’s first two games of the year. He suffered a sprained MCL during the team’s Week 2 win over San Diego and initial reports indicated he would be out for one to two weeks. Subsequent reports speculated that he could be up for up to six weeks and, in true Patriot fashion, Hernandez was apparently walking without much of a limp. Good luck figuring out how to juggle your fantasy roster to replace Hernandez. If Hernandez is out, Chad Ochocinco figures to see his playing time increase dramatically but the biggest winner is likely Wes Welker, who moves back into his customary slot position where he is far more comfortable (and productive). With the Patriots having used two tight end sets the majority of their first two games, Welker had been lining up outside most of the time with Hernandez manning the slot position.
3. With the Jaguars decision to insert rookie 1st round pick Blaine Gabbert into the starting line up, the fantasy value of the team’s other skill position players took another hit. First, there was the drop off from the steady, yet unspectacular David Garrard to veteran retread and career backup Luke McCown. Now there’s another drop to Gabbert. The rookie struggled so badly in training camp that when the Jaguars began contemplating releasing Garrard, they moved McCown ahead of him on the depth chart because they didn’t feel he was ready. Or more likely, felt like he would be overwhelmed having to start in Week 1. How has that changed in two weeks? It hasn’t. What has changed is that McCown was even worse than expected. That moves Gabbert into the starting line up and sinks the value of wide receiver Mike Thomas and tight end Marcedes Lewis, if their values could go any lower.
4. With the Seahawks sitting at 0-2 but playing in the league’s worst division in the NFC West, there situation can’t be described as dire just yet but they face a crucial matchup in Week 3 in their home opener against Arizona. Look for the heat to get turned up dramatically on general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll if the Seahawks go down to the Cardinals with the team’s key offseason additions drawing the ire of the team’s fans. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson was brought in to lead the offense, Sidney Rice was signed to provide the team with a true number one wide receiver, guard Robert Gallery was expected to help shore up the offensive line and tight end Zach Miller provided a better blocking and receiving option than John Carlson. Although it’s early, none of those moves has paid dividends thus far. Jackson has struggled and could be headed to the bench with another poor performance in favor of Charlie Whitehurst. Gallery missed time in the preseason with a knee injury and will be out for 4-6 weeks with a groin injury. Rice has yet to play and Miller has been a non-factor with three receptions for 32 yards. If the Seahawks struggle to contend for a playoff spot, look for changes in Seattle’s management with Schneider likely headed out the door.
5. Sticking with the Seahawks, the team’s coaching staff made the somewhat surprising move to demote starting strongside linebacker Aaron Curry this week in favor of rookie 4th round pick K.J. Wright. The fourth overall selection in the 2009 draft, Curry has not been able to translate his considerable athletic ability into production on the field. Simply put, he hasn’t made enough big plays to justify keeping him in the starting line up. In just over two seasons in Seattle, Curry has recorded four forced fumbles and six sacks. He renegotiated his contract in the offseason, foregoing his guaranteed salary in 2012 in order to become a free agent at the conclusion of next season. However, even if his demotion turns out to be a motivational tactic and he improves his performance, this will be Curry’s final season in Seattle and he will go down as one of the biggest busts taken within the first five picks of the draft.
6. In Kansas City, there is increasing speculation that head coach Todd Haley could be replaced at some point during the season if the team doesn’t show drastic improvement. Despite coming off an AFC West division title last season, Haley’s personality has rubbed Chiefs management the wrong way at times as well as a number of the team’s assistant coaches. Not helping matters was Haley’s decision to buck the trend and focus on the team’s conditioning during the early portion of training camp, which appears to have left the Chiefs woefully unprepared to start the season. That decision coupled with key injuries to running back Jamaal Charles, safety Eric Berry and tight end Tony Moeaki ensures that 2011 will not go down as Haley’s finest coaching season but general manager Scott Pioli shouldn’t go unscathed if the Chiefs fail to turn their season around. Pioli has failed to add enough playmakers on both sides of the ball and made a number of questionable draft picks, starting with the curious decision to select diminutive scatback Dexter McCluster in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft. In addition, 2009 1st round pick Tyson Jackson hasn’t panned out at defensive end and critics questioned the team’s decision to use their 1st round pick this season on wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin due to character concerns.
7. Two games into the season, the Eagles have determined that their revamped linebacking corps isn’t getting the job done. Philadelphia entered the season with major question marks at the position with Jamar Chaney starting on the strongside, rookie 4th round pick Casey Mathews in the middle and Moises Fokou on the weakside. However, the team’s solution amounts to little more than rearranging the chairs on the decks of the Titanic. Chaney will move back to the middle where he played last year, Mathews shifts to the weakside and Fokou moves to the strongside. Look for the opposing offenses to run heavily until this unit improves their performance.
8. Kudos to Packers wide receiver Donald Driver who became the team’s all time leader in reception yards with 9,666 during this week’s win over the Panthers.
9. Sticking with the Packers wide receivers, if there is anybody out there still buying the notion that James Jones is going to emerge to get significant targets in 2011, it’s time to end those thoughts. Over his last five games (counting last year’s playoffs), Jordy Nelson has caught 28 of 38 targets for 447 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Buy now before the word gets out.
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