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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — August 21, 2011 @ 9:25 am
QB Tarvaris Jackson
 Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. If you’re looking for a reason why the Seahawks signed Jackson and gave him the keys to the team’s offense, that’s the only reason I can give you. If you’re looking for a quarterback who can scramble and make people miss, Jackson isn’t a bad option. If you’re looking for one who can make plays with his arm, you can surely do better. In a nutshell, Jackson has done nothing to prove that he’s capable of being an NFL starting quarterback, but that’s what he will be in Seattle in 2011.
QB Charlie Whitehurst
NFL personnel don’t like to admit to their mistakes, especially after just one year, but Whitehurst appears to have been a big front-office mistake. Despite long-time starter Matt Hasselbeck having left town for Tennessee and the Seahawks having swapped second-round picks and given up a third-round pick to acquire Whitehurst, they have no intention of handing over control of the team’s offense to him. And you should have no intention of wasting roster space on a player who has shown no natural instinct for the game whatsoever.
RB Marshawn Lynch
With the Bills having given up on him, Lynch got a new lease on his NFL career when Buffalo shipped him off to Seattle early in 2010. Since his arrival in the Pacific Northwest, Lynch has averaged a solid 8.9 fantasy points per game on 573 rushing yards, 138 receiving yards, and six touchdowns over 12 games. The numbers are a bit deceiving, however, and his performance can best be described as mediocre, as he has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry as a Seahawk. In addition, of his 107 fantasy points in Seattle, 28 came in one game over the lowly Panthers. The case could be made that Lynch will resurrect his career with the Seahawks given his young age (just 25) and that his struggles last year had more to do with the team’s offensive line than his own talent. But I’m not buying it. He’s a RB3 heading into 2011, and just as likely to bust as he is to break out.
RB Justin Forsett
Given the state of the team’s rushing attack, the Seahawks have had ample reasons to give Forsett a chance to take over as the starter, but it hasn’t happened. Last year, it took them just four games to realize that he wasn’t the answer, and the odds are that Seattle views him as nothing more than a third-down, change-of-pace back. He averaged a respectable 7.9 points per game in 2009, but that dropped to just 5.6 last season, as he finished with just 772 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. On the plus side, current starter Marshawn Lynch remains an enigma, so Forsett has a decent chance to start a handful of games in 2011. He is best served as a flex option in deep leagues and is worth using a low-end draft pick on in redraft leagues.
RB Leon Washington
After Seattle acquired Washington prior to the 2010 season, the assumption was that he would take over as the primary returner and get worked into the offense by midseason as he recovered from a gruesome leg injury. Although he performed well as a returner, Washington never got much of a chance in the team’s base offense, getting just 36 touches for the year. And there’s little chance of that changing in 2011.
WR Sidney Rice
In 2009, Rice flashed the potential the Vikings felt he had when they used a second-round pick in 2007 to draft him. Unfortunately, Rice suffered a hip injury that caused him to miss the majority of 2010, and he never really seemed to get on track once he returned to the lineup. In six games, he caught just 17 passes for 280 yards and a pair of touchdowns. To be fair, Brett Favre only saw meaningful action for Rice’s first two games, so part of his lack of productivity was due to the team’s quarterback issues. It’s all about risk, however, and the bottom line is that he has been productive for only one season out of four. Consider him a WR3 with upside until he solidifies his role in Seattle.
WR Mike Williams
All it took was six years, but Mike Williams finally arrived last season, catching 65 passes for 751 yards and two touchdowns in 14 games with Seattle. The tenth pick in the 2005 draft, Williams was out of the league for the 2008 and 2009 seasons and was given little to no chance to earn a roster spot with the Seahawks during the 2010 preseason. He surprised, however, and ended up spending most of the year as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. That won’t be the case in 2011. With Williams lacking the speed to get deep and being more of a possession receiver, the Seahawks signed unrestricted free agent Sidney Rice to fill the lead receiver role. While that’s not a death knell for Williams’ fantasy value, it does mean his upside is likely what he produced in 2010. It also doesn’t help that Matt Hasselbeck has been replaced by the erratic Tarvaris Jackson, and that the team wants to develop some of their younger receivers. Don’t expect this comeback story to have another great chapter in 2011.
WR Golden Tate
The Seahawks’ 2010 second-round pick dropped into a great situation in Seattle last season, with the expectation that he would assume a big role in an offense severely lacking talent at wide receiver. There was an offseason incident prior to training camp that caused some to doubt his maturity, but he was considered perhaps the most NFL-ready rookie wideout, given his pedigree at Notre Dame. After a rookie season in which he caught just 21 passes for 227 yards and failed to find the end zone, Tate’s situation entering 2011 isn’t looking quite so rosy. Look for him to enter the season as the team’s slot receiver, which is hardly a ticket to success given the state of the offense. He figures to take a step forward in 2011, but he’s not worthy of a spot on your roster.
WR Ben Obomanu
Obomanu proved last year that he could be a decent player when given an opportunity, catching 19 passes for 371 yards and a pair of touchdowns—all career highs for him—over a six-game stretch in the starting lineup. His reward was the team signing Sidney Rice and relegating Obomanu to fourth on the depth chart, given that he is not suited to play out of the slot. That means he has no fantasy value unless injuries strike Rice or Mike Williams.
WR Kris Durham
The Seahawks like big receivers, further evidenced by their choosing Durham in the fourth round of this year’s draft. Unfortunately for Durham, the team already has three proven wide receivers with solid size ahead of him on the depth chart. His draft status means he will make the team, but he’s not likely to dress on game day unless he earns a spot on special teams or beats out Ben Obomanu. He’s for dynasty leaguers only.
TE Zach Miller
You have to feel for Zach Miller. One of the most underrated players in the NFL—not just at tight end, but of all players—he spent the first five years of his career suffering from substandard quarterback play in Oakland. Then as a free agent he signs with Seattle, a team that likely has the worst quarterback situation in the league, with no proven starter and no young quarterback with a strong pedigree waiting to take over. Of course, he chose to sign with Seattle, so maybe he’s a glutton for punishment. At least in Oakland, Darren McFadden helped take some heat off the team’s receivers by forcing opponents to play eight men in the box. That’s not the case in Seattle. And to make matters worse, John Carlson is arguably the finest backup tight end in the league, deserving of a decent amount of playing time. Miller goes from a lower-tier fantasy starter in Oakland to a low-end fantasy backup in Seattle.
TE John Carlson
You have to love Seattle’s management team. They don’t have a quarterback but they spend big money on Zach Miller to give them two starting tight ends. Of course, Carlson didn’t help matters by having the worst year of his three-year career in 2010, and his numbers have now dropped in two straight seasons (from 627 receiving yards as a rookie, to 574, to 318 last year). Look for the Seahawks to utilize more double-tight-end sets to get Carlson on the field, but the bottom line is that his fantasy value is nil unless he is traded to another team.
By: Dave Stringer — August 20, 2011 @ 3:22 pm
QB Sam Bradford
 The first overall pick in 2010 proved last season that he is the real deal, leading the Rams to within a game of the playoffs. Bradford displayed veteran poise throughout his rookie season and appears to have the Rams ready to make a run at the playoffs in 2011. Missing the team’s top two wide receivers in Mark Clayton and Donnie Avery and having marginal talent at tight end, Bradford spread the ball around, throwing for 3,210 yards with 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, making him the 19th-ranked fantasy quarterback. Look for more this coming season. He had a solid six-game stretch at midseason, throwing for 1,307 yards with 11 touchdowns and only a single interception. However, he fell off over the final five games, a stretch where he passed for 1,046 yards with six interceptions and only one touchdown as defenses began to focus on shutting down slot receiver Danny Amendola. With new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels running the show, look for improvement in Bradford this coming season. However, the team failed to address its needs for a true No. 1 wide receiver, and while there is talent at tight end, it is largely unproven. Bradford enters 2011 as a mid-tier fantasy backup with upside, and he is a great option in dynasty leagues.
RB Steven Jackson
What to make of Steven Jackson… On the one hand, he’s only 27 years old and is a true workhorse back in a league full of timeshares; he rarely comes off the field, gets the goal line work, and can catch the ball. That’s why it’s no surprise he’s had at least 1,273 total yards every year since taking over as the team’s starter at the beginning of the 2005 season. On the other hand, he’s been used heavily (averaging 25.1 touches per game over the last five years), is coming off a career worst 3.8 ypc season, and has trouble finding the end zone. In fact, since scoring 16 touchdowns during his career year in 2006, Jackson hasn’t scored double-digit touchdowns in any one season, averaging just six scores per season over his last four years. By adding Cadillac Williams and Jerious Norwood to the fold, the Rams have given SJax his best backups since, well, Marshall Faulk. While Jackson has earned a reputation as a player who often gets hurt, the bottom line is that he has missed just ten games over the last six years and has a willingness to play through pain. He enters 2011 as a reliable, low-end RB1 with some upside if he can start finding the end zone again. With the Rams on the upswing, that just might happen.
Cadillac Williams
After years of having a black hole behind Steven Jackson, the Rams may have finally found a decent backup in former Buccaneer Cadillac Williams. Williams was relegated to a backup role in 2010 after losing his job at midseason to LeGarrette Blount. His prospects for playing time were actually better in Tampa Bay than in St. Louis, however, given Blount’s poor blocking and receiving ability—areas in which Jackson has proven capable. At this point in his career, Williams is clearly a backup, but one who has played reasonably well in most games since his resurgence in 2009. However, he has not been able to produce against the league’s top defenses. He shapes up as a worthy handcuff on your fantasy roster.
RB Jerious Norwood
Norwood comes to the Rams after a pair of injury-plagued seasons in Atlanta. He suffered a torn ACL in Week 2 last year and has missed 20 games over the last two seasons. Prior to that, he enjoyed a career year in 2008, rushing for 489 yards, gaining 338 receiving yards, and scoring six touchdowns. At that point, Norwood looked like a player who just might emerge as a solid time-share back, but the Falcons signed Michael Turner and Norwood couldn’t stay healthy. Norwood will fight with Cadillac Williams for the few scraps Steven Jackson leaves behind, but his main role will be on third downs. He’s only worth grabbing if SJax or Williams gets injured.
WR Danny Amendola
After the 2010 rookie draft, the Rams boasted about how they got a steal in selecting slot receiver Mardy Gilyard with the first pick in the fourth round. Turns out that was a wasted pick since they got a steal when they plucked Amendola off the Eagles practice squad two years ago. Amendola’s willingness (bordering on reckless) to go over the middle and ability to convert third downs helped him develop into Sam Bradford’s go-to receiver. Bradford targeted him 123 times, with Amendola catching 85 passes for 689 yards and three touchdowns. The nifty 69.1 completion percentage pretty much ensures Amendola doesn’t have to worry about Gilyard. Clearly Amendola is a better option in PPR leagues, where he ranks as a lower-tier WR2 or upper-tier WR3. In non-PPR leagues, consider him a WR3. New offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels helped make Wes Welker a star in New England, and the same might just happen with Amendola in St. Louis.
WR Mike Sims-Walker
Conventional wisdom is that the Rams are desperate for a No. 1 wide receiver and Sims-Walker is the player most likely to fulfill that role, given his size-speed combination and his accomplishments in Jacksonville. The only hiccup with that theory is his production in 2010, where he caught just 43 receptions for 562 yards and seven touchdowns. That’s not No. 1 wide receiver production to most folks. More likely, the Rams will spread the ball around among several wide receivers because, while they don’t have a true No. 1, they have several that are NFL caliber. Sims-Walker is worth taking on as a WR4 or WR5, but he’s not a player you want to rely on in your starting lineup until he proves otherwise.
WR Danario Alexander
While Mike Sims-Walker is getting all the pub as the Rams receiver most likely to replicate Brandon Lloyd’s breakout season in Denver with Josh McDaniels running the offense, Alexander has far more potential if he can stay healthy. However, the odds of that happening cannot be considered good. Alexander is a solid 6’5”, but he went undrafted due to his numerous knee injuries. Although he joined the Rams near the end of preseason last year, he quickly picked up the offense and had three double-digit fantasy point games despite playing in just eight contests. Unfortunately, he was in and out of the lineup with those same knee problems. Alexander has the potential to be one of the top receivers in the league if his knees would just hold up. He’s worth a late-round flier in larger leagues.
WR Donnie Avery
The Rams made Avery the first wide receiver taken in the 2008 draft, using the first pick in the second round to acquire him. With DeSean Jackson still on the board at that point, let’s just say St. Louis may regret that one. In three years, Avery has proven injury-prone and inconsistent, missing all of last season with a knee injury. He’s a burner but his route running doesn’t seem to have improved much since he entered the league. While the Rams are stacked at wide receiver with no clear-cut No. 1, Avery’s size and poor route running don’t bode well for his becoming quarterback Sam Bradford’s go-to guy in 2011. He’s far more likely to be used as a deep threat. See what Avery does in the preseason before wasting a roster spot on him.
WR Brandon Gibson
What’s a guy have to do to get some respect? After being plucked off the Eagles practice roster in 2009, Gibson stepped into the lineup and caught 34 passes for 348 yards and a touchdown in ten games, including three starts. Last season, he was the Rams’ most consistent outside threat with 53 receptions for 620 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, the Rams weren’t impressed, bringing in Mike Sims-Walker and drafting two wide receivers in the middle rounds of the draft.
WR Mardy Gilyard
Gilyard was considered a steal when the Rams used the first pick in the fourth round of the 2010 draft to acquire him. A few picks later the Bucs grabbed Mike Williams. You don’t need a degree in rocket science to figure out who got the real steal. With a plethora of wide receivers worthy of roster spots and Danny Amendola having cemented his position as the team’s slot receiver, Gilyard has no chance of making the Rams roster. He’s trade bait for the Rams and not worthy of a roster spot in your dynasty league.
TE Michael Hoomanawanui
The Rams’ 2010 fifth-round pick had an up-and-down rookie season. He performed well in training camp and appeared to be on the verge of claiming the starting position by midseason, only to suffer a high ankle sprain to his left ankle on opening day. He returned in Week 6 and had 12 receptions for 138 yards and three touchdowns over the next six games before suffering a right high ankle sprain. Hoomanawanui will battle rookie second-round pick Lance Hendricks for playing time but has the edge to open the season as the team’s starter given his superior blocking ability. Monitor the situation and consider Hoomanawanui a low-tier backup with upside, provided he beats out Kendricks.
Lance Kendricks
The Rams haven’t gotten much out of their tight ends in recent years, and new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ system calls for a tight end with the ability to get downfield. Hence, the selection of Hendricks in the second round of this year’s draft. More receiver than blocker, Hendricks will likely spend his rookie season playing mostly on passing downs, but he could be a solid fantasy backup if he can win the starting position, which just might happen considering his play in training camp. If it doesn’t happen, he isn’t worth owning in redraft formats but is still a decent option in dynasty leagues.
By: Dave Stringer — August 19, 2011 @ 12:20 pm
QB Philip Rivers
 How do you know when a quarterback has made it to the elite level? There are many ways to measure that, but I consider a quarterback elite when he can still produce while key receivers are out of the lineup. That’s what Rivers did last season. Despite having the league’s top tight end Antonio Gates for only ten games, his top wide receiver Vincent Jackson for just five games, and Malcom Floyd for 11 games, Rivers enjoyed a career year throwing to the likes of Legedu Naanee, Buster Davis, Seyi Ajirotutu, and Patrick Crayton. He topped 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns for the third consecutive season, throwing for 4,710 yards, 30 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions. Imagine what’s in store if the he can get full seasons out of Jackson, Floyd, and Gates. With running back Ryan Mathews showing up out of shape, there certainly isn’t much worry of the Chargers running it more in 2011. All signs are pointing up for Rivers heading into 2011, and that’s saying something considering that he has finished as the fourth-, ninth-, and fifth-ranked fantasy quarterback over the past three seasons. He’s definitely in the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks.
RB Ryan Mathews
After the Chargers moved up in the first round of the 2010 draft to acquire him, it looked as though Mathews had stumbled into an excellent situation for a rookie running back. With LaDainian Tomlinson having been released and with no evident replacement on the roster, Mathews had a clear path to a starting spot on one of the league’s most high-powered offenses. He looked like fantasy gold. But that was then. His rookie season was subpar, marred by a recurring ankle injury and bad luck. In the 12 games Mathews played, he often lost time to Mike Tolbert or Darren Sproles based on game situations. Of course, had he earned more playing time, he would have had more touches. Rookie running backs often struggle, however, so more was expected from Mathews in 2011. Unfortunately, he showed up at training camp out of shape and promptly suffered a toe injury. Even if he does return to full health, Tolbert is all but certain to get the team’s short-yardage and closer work, so that limits Mathews’ upside. In addition, the team added Jordan Todman in the sixth round of the draft in hopes that he could replace the departed Darren Sproles as a pass-receiving threat. On the plus side, Mathews was solid during the final four games of 2010, averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game on 296 rushing yards, 53 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. The guy is talented. The question is whether he can put it together. He is a lower tier RB2 with upside in 2011.
RB Mike Tolbert
Hands up if you saw Tolbert as an RB2 heading into 2010. Yeah, didn’t think so. With rookie hotshot Ryan Mathews expected to replace LaDainian Tomlinson in the starting lineup and with Darren Sproles in line to reprise his role as the team’s third-down back, Tolbert was basically an afterthought—and that’s being polite. No matter, as the 243-pound bowling ball rolled past both Mathews and Sproles on the depth chart in Week 2 and earned more rushing attempts than both players over the course of the season. He was a touchdown machine with 11 scores on his 207 touches to go along with his 735 rushing yards and 216 receiving yards. With the team having invested so heavily in Mathews, he is expected to get first crack at the starting spot in 2011, but make no mistake that the Chargers will quickly turn to Tolbert if Mathews struggles once again. At worst, Tolbert shapes up as the team’s short-yardage back and fourth-quarter closer, likely spelling Mathews every third series or so. That makes him a great flex option for the coming season, and one who just might steal away a starting spot on one of the league’s top offenses.
RB Jordan Todman
With Darren Sproles approaching free agency, the Chargers used a sixth-round pick to acquire a similar player in Todman. Smart move. Sproles bolted from the Chargers, as expected, for the Saints. That leaves Todman with a clear path to a roster spot. What he doesn’t have is a clear path to enough playing time to make him a solid fantasy option in 2011. He’s not worth owning in redraft leagues but is worth taking a flier on in dynasty formats that employ a flex position.
WR Vincent Jackson
After a wasted 2010 season in which a holdout, suspension, and injuries caused him to miss 11 games, Jackson is back in San Diego as the Chargers’ franchise player. That means he should be good for 16 games, barring injury, and there’s a decent chance that Jackson emerges as an upper-tier WR1 in 2011. When both players are healthy, the Chargers offense runs through Jackson and tight end Antonio Gates, who are quarterback Philip Rivers’ preferred options in the passing game. Jackson has been a touchdown machine for the Chargers with 19 scores in his last 36 games, and the team is expecting him to become a more consistent threat in 2011. The fantasy knock on Jackson has been that he doesn’t catch a lot of balls, reaching a career-high of 68 in 2009. Look for that to change this year as he attempts to earn himself the lucrative long-term contract he’s been after for the past few seasons. Add it all up and a breakout season might just be in the cards, with Jackson establishing himself as one of the top receivers in the league.
WR Malcom Floyd
Throughout Vincent Jackson’s 2010 holdout, Floyd was consistently mentioned as a potential breakout candidate. However, a midseason hamstring injury prevented that from happening. With Jackson back and Antonio Gates at full health, Floyd will probably be the third wheel in the team’s passing game in 2011. He is at his best as a deep option, given his size and above-average speed. He has compiled a healthy 18.0 yards per reception over the past three years, but his career-high reception total is just 45, and he has only found the end zone 11 times since 2008. Given Gates’ injury history and Jackson’s DUI history, Floyd could emerge as the go-to guy in the Chargers passing attack. Even if that doesn’t happen, he is definitely worth grabbing in the middle rounds of your redraft leagues.
WR Vincent Brown
On the one hand, Chargers general manager A.J. Smith has a stellar reputation for finding NFL-caliber talent. On the other, it’s awfully hard to get excited about a smallish third-round pick who will line up in the slot and doesn’t possess good speed. Brown is not built to play outside, he’s not fast enough to be dynamic in the slot, and the Chargers aren’t going to give him many targets as long as Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson are healthy. Brown is a fringe prospect in dynasty leagues, and one who will not be on any of my rosters.
WR Patrick Crayton
Sure, he plays for the Chargers and he’s got the upper hand on rookie Vincent Brown to be the team’s slot receiver, but Crayton has never topped 7.4 points per game (his average from way back in 2007). And if Vincent Jackson or Malcom Floyd go down, it’s unlikely the Chargers would move Crayton outside. No fantasy value here, folks.
TE Antonio Gates
Every year, we read about three or four tight ends that supposedly have the talent to reach the level of production that Gates achieves. And yet, every year the tight end rankings have Gates alone at the top in his own tier. There’s a reason for that. He’s unstoppable. He either beats defenders deep with his speed or he beats them on short and intermediate routes with his quick cuts and by shielding them from the ball. Oh yeah, his quarterback is one of the best in the league, as is the Chargers offense. Last year, Gates was the second-highest-scoring tight end, averaging 13.8 points per game, despite playing in just ten games. The highest-scoring was Jason Witten, who averaged 9.6 points per game. That makes Gates worth paying for. He is apparently healthy now and it’s worth noting that, although he is regularly banged up, he missed just three games over the first seven years of his career prior to 2010.
By: Dave Stringer — August 18, 2011 @ 3:14 am
QB Jason Campbell
 It’s not often you get a second lease on your football career with the same team in the span of two years, but that is the case for Campbell. Despite joining the Raiders with the expectation that he would be the team’s starter, he was yanked out of the starting lineup by former head coach Tom Cable six quarters into the 2010 season. Enter new coach Hue Jackson. Jackson let Bruce Gradkowski go in free agency, and with little depth behind Campbell, the starting job is safely his. Once he was back in the starting lineup last season, he played reasonably well over the final five games, averaging 15.4 points per game while throwing for 1,065 yards with six touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. That’s decent QB2 production, and with a cast of young speedsters at wide receiver and a pair of solid running backs in Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, the Raiders possess some intriguing, young offensive talent. Unfortunately, tight end Zach Miller, the team’s most dependable receiver, left for Seattle and his replacement, former Giant Kevin Boss, is not nearly the same receiving threat. That hurts Campbell’s fantasy value and makes him a low-end backup for 2011.
RB Darren McFadden
After a pair of largely disappointing seasons, McFadden showed why he was the fourth pick in the 2008 draft with an outstanding 2010 campaign. Even though he missed three games with injuries, he rushed for 1,157 yards and seven touchdowns while adding 507 yards and three more scores through the air, reaching career highs in every major offensive category despite playing in the Raiders’ popgun offense. He was also remarkably consistent, hitting double-digit fantasy points in ten of 13 games. Can he do it again? Why not? New coach Hue Jackson figures to open up the offense more than his predecessor Tom Cable did, and Run-DMC produced top-five running back numbers last season despite not playing a full slate of games. Given his injury history, you can almost certainly bank on his missing a game or two and hope it won’t be during the fantasy playoffs. Either way, that makes acquiring Michael Bush as his handcuff imperative. McFadden ranks just outside of the top five at running back for 2011, and he could be a bargain if others are wary of his injury history and the fact that he’s had only one solid season out of three.
RB Michael Bush
Considering Darren McFadden’s subpar first two seasons in the league, it appeared entering 2010 that Bush had a decent chance to unseat him as the Raiders’ starting running back. Bush held up his end of the bargain, rushing for 655 yards and eight touchdowns on just 155 carries while chipping in 194 receiving yards, proving he could put up good numbers with more work. However, we already knew that based on his performances in 2008 and 2009. The problem was that McFadden didn’t hold up his end of the deal, finally putting together a Pro Bowl-caliber season and gaining a stranglehold on the starting spot. Nonetheless, Bush was still a valuable commodity, finishing 2010 as the 27th-ranked running back. Expect more of the same in 2010, which makes Bush one of the better flex plays considering he can likely be had for a low-round pick.
WR Jacoby Ford
Ford was a pleasant surprise as a rookie in 2009, proving to be a multi-dimensional threat for a Raiders squad lacking in playmakers. He caught two touchdowns passes, scored twice on the ground, and ran back three kicks for scores. That’s nice if your league counts return touchdowns. However, most don’t, and that limits Ford’s upside, as does his size. Listed at 5’9”, 186 pounds, he’s not going to catch a ton of balls, but he is dynamic when he does, putting up 470 yards on just 25 receptions last year for a tidy 18.8 yards-per-catch average. All of Ford’s production came in the final ten weeks of the season (save for an eight-yard run), so he averaged a respectable 8.7 points per game over that stretch. That’s WR3 production. Ford is definitely a nice sleeper pick, but the Raiders have a number of speedsters on their roster and Ford hasn’t exactly established himself just yet. He’s definitely worth owning, but don’t reach too far for him.
WR Louis Murphy
On first glance, Murphy had a middling performance in 2010, catching 41 passes for 609 yards and two touchdowns over 14 games. However, the Raiders’ quarterback play was spotty at best, Murphy played banged up for most of the year, and he was still clearly the Raiders’ most consistent wide receiver when in the lineup. Did we mention he’s entering his third year in the league? Murphy doesn’t project as a breakout candidate for 2011, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he performed as a top-tier WR3 either. He has good size and enough speed to get deep, and that’s always a plus when playing for Al Davis’ Raiders. Murphy is definitely worth taking a flier on in 2011, but make sure to monitor the hamstring and groin injuries he has been dealing with in training camp.
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey
Heyward-Bey enters his third season in the league, the point when wide receivers generally take a big step forward. The only problem is that a big step forward for Heyward-Bey would get him in the 600-yard, five-touchdown range. He needs a huge step forward to be a solid fantasy producer after a 2010 season in which he caught only 26 passes for 366 yards and a single touchdown. Of course, that production was a big step up from a rookie campaign where he looked completely lost, catching just nine passes for 124 yards and a score. You need playing time to produce, and there’s no guarantee Heyward-Bey is going to get a whole lot with Jacoby Ford and Louis Murphy ahead of him on the depth chart—and rookie fifth-round pick Denarius Moore having a solid training camp. Did we mention that Chaz Schilens figures to operate as the Raiders’ possession receiver since they lost tight end Zach Miller? Heyward-Bey’s nothing more than a deep sleeper, worth owning only in larger leagues.
WR Chaz Schilens
There was a time when Schilens was considered a lower-tier breakout candidate for the Raiders. So much for that. He played in just eight games in 2009 and five games last season, as knee and foot injuries kept him out of the lineup. With several younger, talented wide receivers in the fold, Schilens doesn’t figure to earn much playing time other than as a backup possession receiver. And we all know that backup possession receivers aren’t going to carry you too far, especially when they play on a team with a suspect passing attack.
WR Denarius Moore
The Raiders apparently love Moore, their 2011 fifth-round pick. Of course, new head coach Hue Jackson is talking up every Raider wide receiver under the sun. We’re waiting for him to say Tim Brown has come back and he’s looking good. Joking aside, there are plenty of reports coming out of Oakland that Moore is lighting it up, but it’s one thing for a speedster to dominate against scrubs and another for a rookie wide receiver to consistently beat veteran defenders. Do I sound skeptical? That’s right. This guy’s waiver wire material and nothing more in redraft leagues. He is worth taking a shot on in dynasty formats, however.
TE Kevin Boss
Mea culpa. I drank the Boss juice a little too heavily in years past, figuring he would vulture some red zone touchdowns for the Giants and become a low-end TE1 or upper-tier backup. To be fair, 18 touchdowns through four years is decent production for a young tight end, but hardly enough to make up for low receiving yardage totals. Boss moves to the Raiders this season, leaving a gaping hole at tight end in the Giants’ offense. Or, more likely, there’s a reason the Giants let him go: he’s not that good. You’re dreaming if you think Boss is going to come to Oakland and replace Zach Miller’s production. Keep an eye on him on the waiver wire, however, since the Raiders don’t exactly have an abundance of solid possession receivers.
By: Dave Stringer — August 17, 2011 @ 9:55 am
QB Matt Cassel
 Cassel is coming off a career year where he threw for 3,116 yards and 27 touchdowns with just seven interceptions. Those are solid numbers in the Chiefs’ ground-based attack, but their offensive scheme hasn’t been a boon for fantasy success, as Cassel has failed in each of the last two years to reach the eighth-place quarterback ranking he had in 2008 with the Patriots. He has finished 15th and 21st over the past two seasons and seems entrenched as a fantasy backup. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis has left the Chiefs, so head coach Todd Haley will have a greater say in the team’s play calling this year, but Kansas City is once again expected to rely on the run heavily. In addition, Dwayne Bowe is coming off a career year and the team has added former Cardinal Steve Breaston and 2010 first-round pick Jonathan Baldwin to the receiving mix. However, the team’s reliance on the run limits Cassel’s upside. Draft him as a QB2 for 2011.
 Jamaal Charles is ridiculously productive in a timeshare. RB Jamaal Charles
How good was Jamaal Charles last year? Very good, actually. Of the top 15 fantasy running backs, only BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ranked 15th) and Darren McFadden (ranked sixth) had fewer touches than Charles’s 275, and he still managed to finish the season ranked fourth at running back. By season’s end, Charles had rushed for 1,467 yards on just 230 carries and caught 45 passes for 468 yards while accumulating eight touchdowns. Over his past 24 games, he has averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game. So, he’s ridiculously productive in a timeshare, which begs the question, How productive could he be if Thomas Jones is relegated to a backup role in 2011? Actually, that’s not the question, since we know Charles would go gangbusters if given a larger share of the workload. The question is really whether head coach Todd Haley will relegate Jones to a backup role in 2011. And it’s not sounding like that’s going to happen, although Haley has said Jones’s workload will be reduced slightly. That means we can expect more of the same from Charles in 2011, and that makes him a near cinch for the top five at running back, provided he remains healthy (and he’s missed only one game in three years).
RB Thomas Jones
While Jones might be a workout warrior, it’s pretty obvious that Father Time caught up with the 33-year-old running back in 2010. Jones seemed to slow down as the season wore on, and it became apparent that he no longer has the ability to break long runs—made even more apparent by Jamaal Charles reeling off one big play after another. Jones managed to eke out 3.7 yards per carry, but that was a far cry from the 6.4 average that Charles had. Jones was a pedestrian performer last year, topping 100 total yards just three times despite having double-digit touches in 13 games and getting 20 touches eight times. While he was a decent flex option heading into 2010, he is now strictly a handcuff.
WR Dwayne Bowe
There’s a good chance you were leading your league in 2010 as the fantasy playoffs approached if you had Bowe on your roster. There’s also a good chance you got bounced in the first or second round if you had Bowe on your roster. Bowe had a monstrous 2010 campaign, finishing the season with 72 receptions for 1,162 yards and 15 touchdowns—the most in the league and the most by a wide receiver since Randy Moss’s 23 in 2007. However, he was held in check in Weeks 14 and 15 (three receptions for 56 yards), costing his fantasy owners at the wrong time. He finished as the second-ranked fantasy wide receiver behind Brandon Lloyd, and the question is whether the talented Bowe has put his litany of issues behind him and is ready to be a consistent producer for the Chiefs. Since he stayed clear of trouble last year, he deserves the benefit of the doubt, but expecting a repeat of his 2010 season isn’t realistic. He’s not a major yards producer, so he relies on touchdowns to pad his fantasy point total, and he is unlikely to approach his 2010 touchdown total this season. It’s also worth noting that Bowe really slowed down starting in Week 14, catching just 14 passes for 277 yards and one touchdown over the next six games, including the Chiefs’ wild-card loss to the Ravens. That stretch included three games where Bowe failed to notch a single fantasy point. He’s a WR2 heading into 2011.
WR Steve Breaston
Having signed with Kansas City in the offseason, Breaston will be reunited with his former offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, in Kansas City. Breaston’s signing gives quarterback Matt Cassel another offensive weapon, and it’s worth noting that Breaston enjoyed a career year in 2008 with Haley calling the plays, as he caught 77 passes for 1,003 yards and three touchdowns. However, that was in a pass-happy Cardinals offense with Breaston as the third receiving option and defenses focused on shutting down Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. In Kansas City, Breaston figures to battle rookie first-round pick Jonathan Baldwin for a starting position, a battle he will likely win. However, it’s far more likely that he will finish the season with little more than 700 yards and 2 or 3 touchdowns—as he has done over the past two seasons—than replicate his career year of 2008. He is worth taking a flier on in larger leagues but is waiver wire material in leagues with smaller rosters.
WR Jonathan Baldwin
When the Chiefs used a first-round pick on Baldwin in April, his fantasy prospects for the upcoming season looked promising. With the inconsistent Dwayne Bowe opposite him and the team’s receiving depth chart looking mighty thin, Baldwin had a clear path to a starting spot, with the potential for plenty of targets if Bowe put up another dud season similar to 2009. That was before the team added free agent Steve Breaston to the mix. While Baldwin still has a chance to relegate Breaston to the slot receiver role, look for the rookie to finish behind both Bowe and Breaston in the target parade. Since the Chiefs like to run, Baldwin isn’t likely to produce much as a rookie. He’s worth owning in dynasty leagues but isn’t worthy of a roster spot in redraft formats.
WR Dexter McCluster
What a difference a year makes. Last season, the Chiefs drafted McCluster in an attempt to add some playmaking ability to their offense, and he was expected to contribute as a runner, a slot receiver, and a wildcard on gadget plays. However, his performance was underwhelming, as he caught just 21 passes for 209 yards and a score and rushed 18 times for 71 yards. Looks like the naysayers were right when they chided the Chiefs for using a second-round pick on a diminutive player who timed out at 4.58 in the 40 at the combine. This season, Steve Breaston figures to occupy the slot position and Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones will handle the team’s rushing chores. Unless he wins the return job, McCluster isn’t even likely to dress on game day, and the 2010 supposition that McCluster could become a Wes Welker clone can be relegated to history’s dustbins.
TE Tony Moeaki
You’ve seen it, we’ve all seen it: Moeaki’s phenomenal touchdown catch that made the NFL Network’s top five receptions of 2010. That shows his athletic side, and it seemed likely that the 2010 third-round pick would improve on his solid production as a rookie (47 receptions for 556 yards and three touchdowns). However, a mysterious knee injury kept him out of the early part of training camp and the Chiefs have not disclosed what held him back—that has to be a concern. Provided he is healthy, look for him to improve his production in all areas. He has an outside chance to become a fantasy starter in 2011. That will hinge on his ability to increase his touchdown numbers and become more of an option in the red zone. However, with the team adding another large target in Jonathan Baldwin and already having Dwayne Bowe as an option near the goal line, Moeaki will likely struggle to increase his touchdown count to the 7-8 range. He is a TE2 with upside for 2011 and a great prospect in dynasty leagues.
By: Dave Stringer — August 16, 2011 @ 9:49 am
QB Kyle Orton
 Where is the love in Denver for Orton? The Broncos acquired him from the Bears prior to the 2009 season and he rewarded them with a career year. He continued that in 2010 before his season was derailed by injuries. The Broncos have thanked Orton by using a 2010 first-round pick on Tim Tebow, acquiring Brady Quinn as competition, and putting Orton on the trade block as soon as the lockout ended. Denver fans have thanked him by booing him during training camp practices. With trade talks having calmed down, it really isn’t a surprise that Orton is listed first on the team’s depth chart. Tebow proved at the end of last season that, while he is a capable playmaker with his legs, he isn’t ready to contribute at the NFL level as a passer. In addition, Orton is the perfect fit for new head coach John Fox, who wants to establish the team’s running game, avoid turnovers on offense, and play solid defense. While Orton might be the perfect fit for Fox, he’s not the perfect fit for your fantasy squad. With quarterback-friendly Josh McDaniels no longer leading the offense and Fox’s rushing mentality now in town, Orton is a fantasy backup with almost no chance of attaining the 21 fantasy points per game he posted in 2010. And we haven’t even mentioned that he’s in the final year of his contract and wants to test the free agent market, giving the Broncos plenty of reason to give Tebow a shot as soon as the season heads south, which seems imminent.
QB Tim Tebow
While the thought of Tebow running the Broncos offense was an intriguing one, it turns out he was too far behind the curve in the passing game for that to happen in 2011—at least for opening day. The Broncos couldn’t get market value for Kyle Orton, who it now appears will open the season as the starter. His contract is up at season’s end, however, so there is a strong possibility Tebow will start if Orton struggles or the team falls out of playoff contention. Tebow was highly productive in three starts at the end of last season, averaging 28.8 points per game mostly because his running ability—he gained 227 yards and six touchdowns on 43 carries over the course of the season. That makes him a solid prospect in dynasty formats. He is waiver wire material in redraft leagues but worth adding as a fantasy backup if he somehow ends up in the starting lineup.
RB Knowshon Moreno
Figuring out Moreno’s fantasy value is a tricky proposition in 2011. The waters are muddy and navigating them is no easy task. On the plus side, John Fox is now in town and he loves to run the ball, so that should mean more touches for Moreno. Unfortunately, Fox also loves to use a committee approach at running back, and the Broncos acquired Willis McGahee to fill the backup role. He’s far superior to the backups Moreno has had over the first two years of his career. The offense should be more productive with Kyle Orton under center than with Tim Tebow, but how long that will be the case is anybody’s guess, with Orton in a contract year and the fans clamoring for Tebow to start. Tebow vultured six touchdowns last season, and the team will possibility feature him in short-yardage situations, even if he opens the season as a backup. Finally, after two years in the league, it seems pretty clear that Moreno doesn’t have the talent level to support his having been taken with the 12th pick in the 2009 draft. He’s likely going to be drafted as an RB2, but he is best suited as a fantasy backup, so don’t reach for him on draft day.
RB Willis McGahee
With a large salary pending for 2011, McGahee was let go by the Ravens in a move that surprised nobody. Having struck out in their attempts to sign free agent DeAngelo Williams, the Broncos signed McGahee to backup disappointing 2009 first-round pick Knowshon Moreno. While there are whispers that McGahee has a chance to carve out a large role in Denver, that seems unlikely. He will turn 30 during the season and is on the downside of his career. While Moreno will probably never be mentioned as one of the league’s top backs, the bottom line is that he is more explosive and has more upside than the aging McGahee. Consider McGahee a worthy handcuff, but he is unlikely to be even a decent flex option as long as Moreno stays healthy.
WR Brandon Lloyd
Even though it was his eighth year in the league, Lloyd seemed to come out of nowhere last season to catch 77 passes for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns and become the leading fantasy wide receiver. Suffice it to say, you could have made a bungle in Vegas on that bet. Just don’t make that same bet in 2011. Josh McDaniels took his pass-happy offense to St. Louis and has been replaced by John Fox, a coach who favors running the ball, so Lloyd isn’t likely to approach the targets he had in 2010. Throw in Denver’s quarterback issues—with Tim Tebow breathing down the neck of likely starter Kyle Orton—and the fact that Lloyd was regarded as a bust prior to 2010, and it seems pretty clear that Lloyd shouldn’t be drafted as a WR1. That being said, it wouldn’t be fair to completely disregard his marvelous 2010 season, and he is the Broncos’ top wide receiver with no threat of competition. Draft him as a mid-tier to high-end WR2.
WR Eddie Royal
After Royal burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2008 with 91 receptions for 980 yards and five scores, the sky seemed to be the limit. Well, maybe that’s a slight exaggeration, but he did seem ready to be a consistent performer for years to come. The wheels fell off in 2009, however, then he enjoyed a somewhat resurgent 2010 season. By resurgent, I mean 59 receptions for 627 yards and three touchdowns. In 2011, Royal will battle Eric Decker for a starting spot opposite Brandon Lloyd, but he is clearly not the front-runner due to his lack of size—head coach John Fox likes his receivers to be solid blockers. That makes Royal a candidate for mostly slot work in an offense that will pass far less than it did last season. In addition, 2010 first-round pick Demaryius Thomas will come of the physically unable to perform list and challenge for playing time by midseason. You see where this is going, right? Don’t go thinking Royal is ready to recreate his rookie magic because it ain’t gonna happen.
WR Eric Decker
There’s a new sheriff in town who likes to run the ball and Decker’s got more size than the diminutive Eddie Royal. That means he’s got a leg up on earning a starting spot—there’s just no telling what he’ll be able to do with it if he does earn it. Decker enters 2011 coming off a subpar rookie campaign where he caught just six passes for 106 yards and a score. The Broncos aren’t going to throw it a lot, Decker doesn’t have a history of production, and Demaryius Thomas will challenge for playing time when he returns from injury around midseason. Decker’s going to need to earn a starting spot coming out of the preseason and be productive early in order to hold off Thomas. That’s a lot to ask. He’s waiver wire material in redraft leagues.
WR Demaryius Thomas
Thomas has a pile of potential and eventually he figures to become the Broncos’ top wide receiver. It’s just not going to happen in 2011. The 2010 first-round pick suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon at the end of last season and will open 2011 on the physically unable to perform list. Thomas saw limited action as a rookie, playing in ten games, starting two, and catching 22 passes for 283 yards and a pair of scores. At 6’3” and 224 pounds, he possesses very good size and also has excellent speed, making him a great prospect for keeper leagues. For redraft leagues, he’s not worth drafting.
TE Daniel Fells
With a pair of rookies and the underwhelming Richard Quinn on the roster, the Broncos brought in Fells and Dante Rosario to keep the tight end position warm for the 2011 season. Bank on Fells earning the starting nod. While he is hardly a dynamic performer, he’s far more consistent that Rosario, and that figures to earn him the starting spot. He’s coming off a career year in 2010 with the Rams, where he caught 41 passes for 391 yards and a pair of scores. But don’t rely on him earning enough playing time to replicate that success in 2011.
TE Dante Rosario
We’ve said it before, we’ll say it again: Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane. Don’t expect that to change as he enters his fifth year in the league.
TE Julius Thomas
The Broncos used a fourth-round pick in this year’s draft to acquire Thomas. He is an athletic player who played basketball at Portland State, but his adjustment to the NFL will take some time given his lack of football experience. That’s why the Broncos signed a pair of veterans in Daniel Fells and Dante Rosario to man the tight end position in 2011. And that’s why Thomas is only worth considering in dynasty leagues.
TE Richard Quinn
The Broncos used a second-round pick in 2009 to acquire Quinn, and it’s safe to say the rest of the league laughed as they blew such a high pick on a blocking tight end. In two years, he has caught one pass for nine yards. They’re laughing even more now. Don’t make your fantasy colleagues laugh at you for having Quinn on your roster.
By: Dave Stringer — August 12, 2011 @ 9:00 pm
QB Drew Brees
 Last season, Brees wasn’t the same quarterback he was in 2008 and 2009, but he still produced another solid fantasy season, averaging 22.7 fantasy points per game in standard scoring leagues. He wasn’t as impressive in leagues that penalize interceptions, however, as he threw a career-high 22 picks. That can be blamed on two factors: the performance of the team’s receivers, and the situation at running back. Both Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson struggled last season, and injuries decimated the running back depth chart, with an undrafted rookie earning significant playing time. The rushing attack was addressed with the addition of Mark Ingram, and the team’s wide receivers should perform better in 2011, although lead receiver Marques Colston’s recovery from a knee injury remains a concern. No matter, as Brees and the Saints spread the ball around and Brees produces consistently, averaging 4,586 passing yards and 31 touchdown passes over the last five years. Hopefully he can cut down on those drive-killing interceptions in 2011. He’s a top-three fantasy quarterback, and that’s pretty much guaranteed if the past is any indication. He’s finished third, second, first, third, and second over the past five years.
RB Mark Ingram
After watching their rushing attack crash back to earth in 2010, the Saints addressed the issue by moving up in the first round of the draft to select Ingram. He was very productive in college at Alabama, helping lead the Tide to a National Championship and winning the Heisman Trophy in the process. He has been compared to Emmitt Smith as a tough, physical runner who lacks breakaway speed. In New Orleans, he joins a crowded backfield and figures to be part of a committee—along with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles—given head coach Sean Payton’s preference for sharing the workload in the backfield. That limits his upside. However, he should get the short-yardage work with Thomas struggling in that area, and he will probably also be the team’s closer if he can avoid fumbling. He’s a RB3 entering the season, but one with upside if he can win the starting job outright, or if the brittle Thomas gets injured once again.
RB Pierre Thomas
When healthy, Thomas has been a productive running back ever since making the team as an undrafted rookie free agent in 2007. While he doesn’t excel in any one facet of the game, he is better than average in several areas, save for short-yardage work, where he has struggled. The issue for Thomas is that he hasn’t been healthy enough, playing in just 35 games over the past three seasons. With the Saints having determined that Thomas can’t stay healthy for an entire season as the lead back (and with plenty of evidence to support that conclusion), they traded up in the first round of the draft to acquire Mark Ingram. Ingram’s presence doesn’t exactly spell doom for Thomas’ fantasy value, considering that Thomas has averaged a healthy 10.8 fantasy points per game in two- and three-player committees, when he’s been in the lineup. However, it clearly limits his upside, and his injury history has to be a concern. Being a part of the Saints’ great offense increases his appeal and makes Thomas an RB3, though one with limited upside given Ingram’s presence.
RB Darren Sproles
Having traded Reggie Bush to the Miami Dolphins, the Saints acquired former Charger running back Darren Sproles to fill Bush’s role in the New Orleans offense. Sproles joins a revamped backfield that includes Pierre Thomas, rookie first-round pick Mark Ingram, and second-year player Chris Ivory. While Sproles is a dynamic player, he isn’t Bush’s equal. Furthermore, the Saints gave a long-term contract to Lance Moore, who essentially subbed in for Bush in the passing game when he was injured. That will limit Sproles’ touches on passing downs. In addition, Ingram and Thomas will get nearly all the work on running downs. Add it all up and it doesn’t seem likely that Sproles will earn enough touches to have much fantasy value in 2011. He is waiver wire material unless those above him on the depth chart get injured.
WR Marques Colston
Despite battling the injury bug, it was another good year for Colston in 2010 as the Saints top wide receiver hauled in 84 passes for 1,022 yards and seven touchdowns. Removing an injury-shortened year in 2008, he has averaged 1,084 yards and 8.8 touchdowns per season, numbers that scream WR1 for fantasy purposes. But don’t be hasty. Colston is coming off microfracture surgery on his right knee, and reports indicate that he has had three surgeries on that knee over the past year. He also previously had microfracture surgery on his left knee. That’s a lot of surgeries for a player who, while very talented, does not possess outstanding speed. On the plus side, you don’t need outstanding speed to be a great red zone threat, and Colston is clearly head coach Sean Payton’s preferred option in that area of the field, although talented second-year tight end Jimmy Graham could poach some of that work. Despite the injury history, you can comfortably use Colston as your WR2, but be wary of having him as your top wide receiver.
WR Robert Meachem
Meachem is arguably the most gifted of the Saints wide receivers, but he remains an enigma to both the coaching staff and his fantasy owners. Coming off a solid second half of the 2009 season, where he caught 37 passes for 524 yards and seven touchdowns over the final nine games of the season, Meachem was expected to become a great compliment to Marques Colston in the Saints’ starting lineup. However, an ankle injury and the inconsistency that has plagued him for his entire career were the defining issues of his season, as he caught just 44 passes for 638 yards and five touchdowns. Entering his fifth year in the league, Meachem remains a player capable of breaking out, but at this point that’s hardly likely. Draft him as a backup and hope he surprises.
WR Lance Moore
After several years of yanking Moore in and out of the lineup, the Saints finally seem committed to him, signing him to a long-term contract extension this offseason. Despite having modest speed and being on the small side, Moore was productive when called upon, often subbing in for Reggie Bush when he was out with an injury. Moore burst onto the scene in 2008, catching 79 passes for 928 yards and ten touchdowns, before becoming a non-factor in 2009. In 2010, he bounced back with 66 receptions for 763 yards and eight touchdowns. Clearly, Moore’s career has had its ups and downs, but he figures to get consistent work in 2011. Marques Colston is coming off another knee surgery, Devery Henderson is best suited as a deep threat, and Robert Meachem has never been able to fulfill his potential. That leaves the steady Moore often picking up the pieces. Consider him a solid fantasy backup in 2011, but one who will become starter worthy if injuries strike the Saints’ other receivers.
WR Devery Henderson
Despite his blazing speed, Henderson has caught just nine touchdown passes over the past four seasons, even though he has played 16 games in every one of those years. He doesn’t catch a lot of passes either, with a career-high 51 in 2009 while never topping 34 in any other season. He also doesn’t like going over the middle, so he’s not going to take a crossing pattern to the house. With Lance Moore having signed a long-term contract extension, there’s a good chance that Henderson will be fourth on the depth chart in 2011. The Saints are tight against the cap, so it won’t be a surprise if they decide against paying $2.25 million to a player so low on the depth chart. Henderson is recommended only in the deepest of leagues.
TE Jimmy Graham
With Jeremy Shockey having been released and David Thomas clearly suited to a backup role, the path has been cleared for Graham to assume the starting tight end spot in 2011. The Saints used a third-round pick last season to acquire the raw yet talented Graham, but he rarely saw the field early in his rookie year. However, he got more use beginning at midseason and quickly developed into another weapon in the Saints’ high-powered offense, particularly as an option in the red zone. By season’s end, Graham had caught 31 passes for 456 yards and five touchdowns, with four of those scores coming in his final three games. He has good size and outstanding speed for a tight end, which gives him a high ceiling. Look for him to finish the 2011 season as a lower-tier TE1.
TE David Thomas
Thomas gets the job done when he gets an opportunity, but the Saints have determined that he fits them best as a backup. He played behind Jeremy Shockey for a number of years and now sits behind talented second-year player Jimmy Graham. He isn’t worth drafting in redraft leagues, but he gets a mention here because he figures to produce if Graham goes down.
By: Dave Stringer — August 10, 2011 @ 1:29 am
QB Josh Freeman
 The fantasy world seems to be banking on Matt Ryan as the next stud quarterback, but the smart money is riding on the Buccaneers’ Josh Freeman. While Ryan’s Falcons may have better overall talent at the skill positions, Freeman’s Bucs use a more pass-based offense and Freeman is a far more capable rusher. He made huge strides in his second season in the league, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. In addition, he finished second to Michael Vick in rushing yards for quarterbacks with 364, but he inexplicably failed to find the end zone. Expect even more improvement in 2011, and if you’re still not convinced of Freeman’s fantasy potential, consider that he has stayed healthy (25 consecutive starts) and is a remarkably consistent fantasy producer for such a young player (only one sub-14-point game in 2010). Don’t be late to the Freeman parade. This guy’s going to be value on draft day—bank on it.
RB LeGarrette Blount
Undrafted and then cast aside by the Tennessee Titans, Blount signed with Tampa Bay and became a revelation at running back partway through the 2010 season. He started out as Cadillac Williams’ backup, ascended to the starter’s role, and made teams regret passing on him as he gained 977 rushing yards and scored five touchdowns over the final 11 games of the season. Blount’s checkered past scared teams away from drafting him, but he displayed excellent athleticism for a 250-pound runner, as he had a number of highlight reel runs. He is getting a lot of love in the fantasy world, but there are some red flags. His maturity level is one of them, as is the fact that many running backs with fresh legs look good over the latter part of a season. In addition, he contributes almost nothing to the passing game, leaving the field in those situations. Despite earning significant playing time, he caught just five passes last season. There’s a lot to like about Blount, but he’s not a player you want to reach for—and certainly not a good option in PPR leagues.
RB Kregg Lumpkin
With the departure of Cadillac Williams to the Rams, there is a significant void at the backup running back spot behind LeGarrette Blount. Even though Lumpkin has done little during his time in Green Bay and Tampa Bay, the Bucs like his hard-running, one-cut style. When your lead back has the checkered history that Blount has and your team is on the verge of making a playoff run, a proven backup is generally in order, and unfortunately Lumpkin doesn’t fit the bill. He might be Blount’s backup at the moment, but that moment doesn’t seem to be a lasting one.
RB Earnest Graham
While Graham is campaigning to be LeGarrette Blount’s backup and has been productive in the past when given a steady dose of playing time, the Bucs seem to have cast him in the lead fullback/emergency backup role. Look no further than the miniscule 64 touches they have given him over the past two years combined. If your league drafts early and you’re looking to grab Blount’s handcuff, don’t bank on Graham’s nabbing that role.
WR Mike Williams
Williams overcame the baggage he accumulated in college to have an outstanding rookie season in Tampa. He dropped to the fourth round of last year’s rookie draft as teams cast a wary eye on his problems at Syracuse. The Bucs took a chance on him, however, and he was easily the most productive rookie receiver in 2010. Williams quickly ascended to the top wide receiver role in Tampa, catching 65 passes for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns. That production was good enough to finish as the 11th-ranked fantasy wide receiver. Williams may have his skeptics, but he figures to remain highly productive if he can stay out of trouble. He has solid size at 6’1” and 220 pounds to go along with good hands, excellent speed, and the ability to adjust in the air for the ball. Throw in the fact that he’s the top wideout on an up-and-coming Bucs offense, and Williams makes for an outstanding prospect in dynasty leagues. While another 11-touchdown season may not be in the cards, he figures to top 1,000 yards and ranks as a mid-tier WR2 with upside in 2011.
WR Arrelious Benn
Benn enters this year coming off a disappointing rookie season that was cut short when he suffered a torn ACL in Week 16. The Bucs’ second-round pick last season struggled for most of the year as he watched fellow rookie Mike Williams emerge as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. Reports indicate that Benn’s rehabilitation is ahead of schedule and that he is the favorite to start opposite Williams. While that bodes for well for his fantasy prospects, the bottom line is that most players struggle in the year following an ACL injury, particularly when the injury occurs late in the season. In addition, he is now clearly a distant fourth in the team’s pecking order in terms of getting touches, behind Williams, tight end Kellen Winslow, and running back LeGarrette Blount. Benn makes for a decent dynasty prospect but is waiver wire material in redraft leagues.
WR Sammie Stroughter
Stroughter played reasonably well as a rookie in 2009, only to watch the Bucs use their 2010 second- and fourth-round picks on wide receivers Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams. That should have told us all we need to know about Stroughter. If your team doesn’t think you’re good enough, your fantasy prospects can’t be all that great. He won a spot in the starting lineup last season as Benn struggled out of the gate, but he just as quickly lost it. Stroughter is destined to be a slot receiver, he’s been injured at the conclusion of each of his years in the league, he’s not likely to get many looks, and there’s no reason to have him on your fantasy roster.
TE Kellen Winslow
On the plus side, Winslow has stayed healthy for the past two years, playing 16 games each season. While he is a productive tight end when healthy, the odds of him fulfilling his immense potential after seven seasons in the league are remote. He enters 2011 coming off a solid yet unspectacular 2010 campaign where he caught 66 passes for 730 yards and five touchdowns. Winslow’s fantasy prospects are brighter since he’ll be playing in an improved Tampa Bay offense, but he remains a bit of an enigma in the red zone despite his size and athleticism, as he’s failed to top five touchdown passes in any season. With a plethora of mid-tier tight ends available, there is definitely no reason to reach for Winslow.
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