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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — November 5, 2010 @ 11:56 pm
1. Jets head coach Rex Ryan did a masterful job in 2009 of bringing his team to within a game of the Super Bowl, succumbing to the Colts in the AFC Conference Final. However, he hasn’t had that same success this season. The team returned Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis to the starting line-up too soon after he injured his hamstring and it remains to be seen whether that decision will affect his performance over the balance of the season. At this point, the consensus is that he has not performed up to his 2009 standard. This week, Ryan released defensive tackle Howard Green knowing that the Jets opponent, the Green Bay Packers, were desperate for help along their depleted defensive line. Green stepped in for the Packers on short notice and played well in helping the Packers restrict the effectiveness of the Jets rushing attack. And finally, the Jets not only lost to the Packers at home, they were also shut out and that is inexcusable considering New York was coming off a bye week and two weeks to prepare. Ryan is a solid coach, just not as solid this year as last.
2. Speaking of bad coaching, Redskins head honcho Mike Shanahan, another coach who always thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room, takes the prize this week for the biggest coaching blunder following his decision to bench quarterback Donovan McNabb in favor of Rex Grossman so Grossman cold run the two-minute drill. No, folks, that wasn’t a typo. Grossman in for McNabb. Grossman stepped in and promptly fumbled on his first play, leading to a fumble recovery and touchdown for the Lions Ndamukong Suh. Shanahan’s initial reasoning was that Grossman was more adept at running the team’s two-minute offense. When that rationale was questioned, he stated that McNabb was not conditioned well enough to run the two-minute offense. Hey, if you’ve already dug a hole for yourself, why not dig deeper? He forgot to mention that McNabb has engineered 25 fourth quarter comebacks in his career.
3. Lots of bad coaching this week so next up on the hit list is the Texans’ Gary Kubiak. Kubiak has done a fine job of turning around the Texans program but with a chance to make a statement this week by beating the Colts in Indianapolis and sweeping the season series with them, he fell flat in a big play. In the Texans Week 1 win over the Colts, running back Arian Foster ran wild, gaining 231 yards and three touchdowns on 33 carries. In that game, quarterback Matt Schaub was a non-factor, passing for 119 yards. Despite that, Kubiak came out throwing on Monday night on the road in a loud Lucas Oil Stadium in left tackle Duane Brown’s first game back from a four-game suspension, squaring off against Dwight Freeney. It took all of three plays to figure out that Brown was no match for Freeney. However, Kubiak kept dialing up the passes and Schaub finished the first half 5 of 15. He reasoned to ESPN reporter Michelle Tafoya at half-time that they needed more balance and that they couldn’t pass protect one on one or in maximum protections. Frankly speaking, there was more than a little fiction in that statement since almost all of the pass protection schemes in the first half did not include running backs or tight ends. As for the comment about needing balance, that’s another fiction. The Texans won in Week 1 without any balance. They could have won last week without any balance. They just needed to give the ball to Arian Foster. He had 102 yards on 15 carries and 65 yards on nine receptions. The Texans threw it 38 times. That’s not balance. Kubiak clearly outthought himself in this one, despite having two weeks come up with a game plan.
4. Here’s to stating the obvious. Broncos Chief Operating Officer Joe Ellis, speaking on behalf of owner Pat Bowlen, was asked by the Denver Post to comment on head coach Josh McDaniels job security. Ellis refused to guarantee that McDaniels would be back in Denver in 2010. I guess when a head coach has lost 14 of his last 18 games and the team’s fans are hurling their fury at him, it’s no surprise when upper management refuses to guarantee the coach will be back the following year.
5. It seems like the Rams got it right with the selection of Sam Bradford with the first overall pick in the draft. Bradford has showed poise in leading the Rams to a 4-4 record that leaves them a half-game behind the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West Race. Despite having a wide receiver group missing Mark Clayton and Donnie Avery, Bradford has moved the ball effectively with an array of short passes. All the more impressive is that he has been able to accomplish that and avoid interceptions despite lacking a true deep threat. He has thrown 96 straight passes without an interception.
6. If the Rams hit the nail on the head with Bradford, the Lions did the same with defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh with the second overall pick in the draft. He has been a beast for the Lions and has already emerged as the team’s most disruptive defender less than halfway through his rookie season. This week, he scored on a fumble recovery to seal the Lions win over the Redskins, although he almost got caught hot dogging it too much Leon Lett style with Santana Moss nearly stripping him at the one-yard line. Suh has six and a half sacks on the season, tied for eight overall in that category. It’s not often that the top two selections in the draft prove themselves to be potential Hall of Fame players mere games into their careers but that seems to be the case with the 2010 draft.
7. How about those poor Buffalo Bills? Two overtime losses in a row. I don’t know if that’s a record but somehow it doesn’t seem all that surprising that it would happen to Buffalo. Maybe linebacker Shawne Merriman can bring some much needed pass rush to a Bills’ defense that struggles mightily in putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
8. Fantasy owners of Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles are disappointed by head coach Todd Haley’s refusal to insert Charles into the starting line-up over Thomas Jones. However, Charles has put up decent production in a backup role despite being used in a change of pace role and not getting any goal line work. It’s also encouraging that with their 274 yard rushing effort this week against the Bills, the Chiefs have now surpassed 200 rushing yards in three straight games.
9. Don’t look now but the Oakland Raiders have actually made their presence felt in the AFC West for the first time since Jon Gruden was coaching the team. They sit at 4-4 but are on a roll, having trounced the Broncos in Denver in Week 7 and the Seahawks in Week 8. This marks the first time they are playing .500 ball in November since the 2002 season. With 92 points over their past two games, the offense is clicking behind a solid rushing attack and big plays in the passing game on play action. Al Davis must be smiling in his grave. Err, he’s still alive, you say? Who knew Chiefs at Raiders would be a feature matchup in Week 9?
10. Keeping with the Raiders, wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey showed some toughness for the first time in his career this week, playing through a shoulder injury he suffered during the game to haul in five passes for 105 yards and a score. He also had a 30-yard run to pad his fantasy stats. While it was nice to see him display some toughness, the production shouldn’t be emphasized too much since the Seahawks have a suspect pass rush and played the game without two of their top three cornerbacks.
11. Get your wide receivers in this week against Cincinnati. Their secondary is banged up and extremely thin heading into this week’s game against the Steelers. At cornerback, Adam Jones was placed on injured reserve two weeks ago and Jonathon Joseph will likely gut it out this week with an ankle injury. If he can’t go, Morgan Trent will step in. At safety, Nedu Ndukwe and Roy Williams will both try to play through knee injuries. If they can’t go, the Bengals will have to rely on inexperienced Tom Nelson to man one of the safety positions. The Bengals need a lot of things to break their way if they’re going to field a decent secondary over the next few weeks.
12. After watching wide receiver Donald Driver unsuccessfully try to play through a quadriceps injury for two straight weeks (no receptions in either game), the Packers quickly ruled him out for this week’s contest against the Cowboys. With the team having their bye in Week 10, that gives Driver two full weeks to recovery. Owners in deeper leagues likely have James Jones and Jordy Nelson stashed on their benches in the event Driver went down. Early this year, it looked like Jones had locked down the third receiver role but Nelson has been the steadier performer of the two over the past few weeks. Jones has the flashier numbers with 19 receptions for 284 yards and a score. However, it’s taken him 40 targets to reach that production and he has been prone to drops. Meanwhile, Nelson has caught 62.8% of his targets and is clearly the more sure-handed of the two.
13. IDP leaguers take note that Rams defensive end Chris Long is finally living up to his potential after being taken second overall in the 2008 draft. He has sacks in three straight games and four and a half sacks in his last five contests.
14. With Mike Tolbert topping 100 rushing yards this week, the Chargers broke a streak of 16 consecutive games without having a running back top the century mark.
By: Dave Stringer — November 4, 2010 @ 2:49 pm
The Tennessee Titans have been awarded Randy Moss on waivers.
The Titans have a need for a receiver with youngster Kenny Britt expected to miss at least four weeks with a severe right hamstring injury, so it was not unexpected that they would put in a claim for Moss.
However, the biggest surprise is the teams ahead of the Titans in the claim process did not make a claim.
Of the playoff contending teams, the St. Louis Rams, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders, Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks all had waiver priority over Tennessee and are in need of help at the wide receiver position but decided against making a claim for Moss.
Their decisions allowed the Titans to claim Moss, moving him to a team that can use his deep threat ability while at the same times giving Chris Johnson more room to operate in the running game.
The Titans become Moss’ third team in 2010, having been traded to the Vikings from the Patriots on October 6th before being waived on Tuesday.
The Vikings decision to wave Moss so soon after acquiring him, resulted from his lack of production on the field, a well-publicized altercation with a catering staff, and a rambling five-minute post-game press conference that criticized Vikings’ coaches and praised his former head coach, Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots.
Fantasy Impact
The Titans are clearly gambling on Moss but it’s easy to see why they claimed him on waivers.
 Chris Johnson: The clear winner. Their rushing attack hasn’t been as successful in 2010 because opposing defenses are clamping down on Chris Johnson, playing eight men in the box on a regular basis.
With Britt out for an extended period, this problem would have been even more exaggerated with Washington and Justin Gage in the starting line-up at wide receiver.
With Moss in the line-up, opposing defenses will play two safeties deep more frequently and that should give Johnson more breathing room in the running game. That makes Johnson a clear winner with the addition of Moss.
At quarterback, Vince Young and Kerry Collins also benefit from the addition of Moss. They get a player still capable of getting deep on a regular basis and that should also translate into more success for the receivers playing opposite Moss on intermediate routes.
Both quarterbacks are solid deep passers and become an upper tier backup for fantasy purposes with Young clearly having more upside given his ability to also contribute in the running game.
At wide receiver, Justin Gage has clearly lost his chance at moving into the starting line-up so he’s a fantasy loser with this move. He was a potential pickup in only the deepest of leagues anyway.
Nate Washington remains the second option but will be out of the starting line-up when Britt returns. Washington should see a slight increase in production until he loses his starting spot to Britt.
Britt goes from being the number one option to playing second fiddle to Moss but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. He has proven capable of being productive when defenses focus too much attention on Johnson. If defenses focus exclusively on shutting down Moss and Johnson, Britt will have some big games when he returns. Consider Britt a mid-tier WR2 when he’s back in the line-up.
As for Moss, while this isn’t the ideal landing spot for him (that would have been New England), this isn’t a bad second option. He will fulfill the same role he did with the Patriots and Vikings. Look for him to getting plenty of deep looks and red zone work with Tennessee.
What should whet the appetite of his fantasy owners is the Titans schedule over the second half of the season. After a Week 9 bye, they face a number of weak passing defenses. Here is a list of the teams the Titans face between Week 10 and 16 and their pass defense rankings: Dolphins (18th), Redskins (31st), Texans (30th), Jaguars (32nd), Colts (13th), Texans (30th) and Chiefs (12th)
Moss shapes up as a mid-tier WR2 with upside but a player who brings considerable risk given his surly attitude and extremely questionable behavior in 2010. If motivated, he could be a significant fantasy contributor over the balance of the fantasy season considering the Titans schedule.
By: Dave Stringer — November 2, 2010 @ 1:28 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Michael Vick, Eagles
He’s back this week and he’s averaging 22.2 fantasy points per game in standard scoring leagues. Even more impressive is that in the four games he has appeared in, he has twice played only half the game. That means that in three games worth of actual playing time, he’s scored 88 fantasy points, which translates to nearly 30 fantasy points per game. Sure, I’m playing with the numbers a bit, and maybe Vick is injury-prone, but he’s also been brilliant thus far in 2010.
Matthew Stafford, Lions
Stafford returned to the starting lineup with a bang this week against the Redskins. Facing a suspect Washington pass defense, he completed 26 of 45 passes for 212 yards and four touchdowns and an interception. With Shaun Hill having been productive during his five games as the starter (and even Drew Stanton playing well when Hill was injured in Week 6), it is safe to conclude that the Lions passing attack is for real. Consider Stafford a low-end fantasy starter over the balance of the season.
 What's not to like? Jon Kitna, Cowboys
If your league doesn’t penalize interceptions, Kitna looks like gold. He throws picks, the Cowboys get behind, they have to throw more. What’s not to like? Well, a lot, actually-that’s why I prefer leagues that penalize interceptions. Kitna has thrown for 566 yards and three touchdowns in a game and a half, and that’s good enough for 40 fantasy points. Of course that 40 points drops considerably once you tally the interceptions, so don’t go out and get him if picks count against you in your league.
Moving Down
Alex Smith, 49ers
With Alex Smith out with a shoulder injury, Troy Smith stepped into the starting lineup for this week’s game in London against the Broncos. While he wasn’t spectacular, he was good enough to lead the 49ers to a victory, and head coach Mike Singletary hinted after the game that it is Troy’s job going forward. Time to drop Alex Smith from your roster in re-draft leagues.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
LeGarrette Blount, Bucs
He was Moving Up last week and he’s back this week for a return performance. In two short weeks, Blount has moved from afterthought to lead back to potential breakout player down the stretch. This week he ran over the Cardinals, gaining 120 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries and making an absolutely sick move when he jumped over safety Kerry Rhodes. I guess when you can run it like that, your inability to pass protect becomes a secondary issue. The Bucs remaining schedule is run-of-the-mill, and Blount has clearly established himself as the team’s top threat at running back. That makes him a mid-tier RB2 with upside.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
Quick question: Who is the 20th-ranked fantasy running back? It’s the man with four names. With Fred Taylor on the shelf, BJGE has taken over the reins as the Patriots’ starting running back. And while he will never be confused with the league’s elite backs, he has been a quietly productive fantasy option with touchdowns in five straight games, including two this week against a solid Vikings run defense. He also topped 100-yards for the first time this season, gaining 112 on just 16 carries. He’s the type of player that fantasy owners grab on the waiver wire and then are afraid to start. If that’s the case with the owner who has him in your league, and you’re desperate for help at running back, grab him. As for Taylor, there’s little reason for the team to go back to him even if he does gets healthy.
Moving Down
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
Entering 2010, Stewart shaped up as a mid-tier RB2, with the Panthers running game expected to carry the offense. However, Carolina has struggled on offense-both in the passing game and on the ground-and Stewart has been virtually invisible. He had a season-best 43 yards on the ground entering this week’s contest against the Rams and was expected to top that with DeAngelo Williams out with a foot injury. The only problem was that the Rams and their improved defense had other ideas. They shut down Stewart, and he finished with just 30 yards on 14 carries and one reception for eight yards. With that, he blew his chance to earn a greater share of the workload when Williams returns, and his yards per carry dropped to a measly 2.8.
Steven Jackson, Rams
Jackson is obviously a beast, and the Rams’ bye this week should help his injured ring finger on his left hand heal properly. It better, because he struggled mightily this week against a soft Panthers run defense, gaining 59 yards on 23 carries. Until the Rams started chewing up the clock, most of his runs were to the outside (presumably to protect his injured finger) where he is less effective. While he is clearly a player that needs to be retained on your roster if you have him, I would be hesitant to swing a trade for him until he shows he finger is healthy.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Terrell Owens, Bengals
After a quiet start to the season where he managed only 152 receiving yards in three games, T.O. has been on fire over the Bengals’ last four contests. He has emerged as Carson Palmer’s top target and has double-digit fantasy points in four straight games. Over that period, he has 31 receptions for 477 yards and five touchdowns. It’s a mixed bag in terms of opponents over the remainder of the season, with the Bengals facing four top 10 passing defenses and four rated 18th or lower. If his owner isn’t buying into T.O. usurping Chad Ochocinco as the team’s top receiver, see if you can grab Owens with a low-ball offer.
Mike Williams, Bucs
Apparently Williams has something to prove after dropping to the fourth round of the rookie draft. The talented wide receiver has been on a tear in his rookie season, and it’s well past time to officially declare him a must-start on a weekly basis. Williams went off against the Cardinals this week, catching four passes for 106 yards and the game-winning touchdown. That performance marked the first 100-yard receiving game of his career, and he is now on pace to finish the season with 73 receptions for 1,074 yards and nine touchdowns. If he stays on that pace, he will finish the season as either a low-end WR1 or a high-end WR2. Quite remarkable, given the baggage he brought with him from his college career.
Steve Breaston, Cardinals
In his first game back since suffering a knee injury in Week 3, Breaston once again showed his ability to make defenses pay for giving too much attention to Larry Fitzgerald. Despite uneven quarterback play, Breaston caught eight of his 11 targets for 147 yards and chipped in 14 yards on a reverse. With Derek Anderson expected to go back under center, Breaston should continue to produce and moves into the WR3 category, provided he can remain healthy.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
With the Raiders hurting at wide receiver this week against the Seahawks, Heyward-Bey stepped in and produced a career-high 105 receiving yards and a touchdown on his five receptions. While it would be foolish to suggest that Heyward-Bey is going to be a consistent fantasy producer over the balance of the season, it’s worth noting that the Raiders offense has scored 92 points over the last two games, thanks to some solid running and a play-action passing attack. That combination plays to Heyward-Bey’s strengths, and he could emerge as a decent fantasy starter if the team’s rushing attack continues to dominate opponents.
Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
Yeah, yeah, he’s the fourth option at wide receiver behind Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon. I just don’t think that will remain the case for very long. Stick with me here. The Colts haven’t said how long Collie will be out with his thumb injury, but speculation is he will return in Week 12. How effective will he be catching the ball if his thumb isn’t fully healed? Tight end Dallas Clark is on injured reserve. Pierre Garcon continues to run the wrong routes and has caught 61 of his 125 targets during the 2009 and 2010 seasons. This week against the Texans, in his first game back since suffering a knee injury in Week 1, Gonzalez caught four of his six targets for 55 yards. He’s definitely worth stashing on your bench and could develop into a useful starter over the second half of the season.
Moving Down
Randy Moss, Vikings
He’s flamed out with two teams in just eight weeks. He’s unemployed. He’s averaging 39 receiving yards per game. As I like to say, you can’t score fantasy points without opportunity, and there’s no opportunity if you don’t have a team. I don’t buy the premise of the Patriots wanting him back, and they are really the only team where he could re-establish himself as a WR1 for fantasy purposes. Look for him to re-emerge with a wide receiver?needy playoff contender, but chances are slim that he will be a consistent contributor if he lands anywhere other than New England.
 Percy needs Randy to stay. Percy Harvin, Vikings
No Moss means more opportunities for Harvin, right? That means more fantasy points, right? Not so fast. Harvin struggled before Moss was acquired, often lining up outside rather than in the slot, where he is more comfortable and more productive. Pre-Moss, Harvin had 12 receptions for 106 yards and one touchdown through three games. With Moss in the lineup, Harvin managed 19 receptions for 287 yards and two touchdowns over four games. Although his receptions stayed about the same, Harvin’s yardage actually doubled while Moss was in purple.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Jacob Tamme, Colts
The Colts entered this matchup against the Texans planning to use both Tamme and Brody Eldridge to replace Dallas Clark, who is out for the season. When Eldridge went down with a rib injury in the second quarter, that plan got shelved and Tamme responded by finishing the game with six receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown. I’m guessing the scheme going forward will involve more Tamme and less Eldridge, regardless of Eldridge’s injury situation.
Moving Down
Heath Miller, Steelers
When Ben Roethlisberger returned from a four-game suspension, Miller’s production was expected to increase with the Steelers moving to a more pass-oriented offense. That hasn’t happened. In three games with Roethlisberger at the helm, Miller has seven receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown. While that isn’t horrible, he has been targeted just eight times over those three games-a far cry from 2009, when he averaged 6.1 targets per game.
By: Dave Stringer — November 1, 2010 @ 4:58 pm
It turns out that the return of Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings was a short-lived one.
 Bye-bye Randy. The Vikings announced today that they have waived Moss, one day after the enigmatic wide receiver delivered a rambling five-minute post-game press conference that criticized Vikings coaches and praised his former head coach, Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots.
The decision to release Moss adds another layer of intrigue to a Vikings season that has delivered plenty of drama but has not resulted in a winning record for a team many had labelled a Super Bowl contender at the start the season.
On October 6th, Minnesota acquired Moss from the Patriots in exchange for their third-round draft pick in the 2011 draft. The Patriots also sent their seventh-round pick of the 2012 draft to the Vikings as part of the trade.
At the time of the trade, Minnesota’s passing game was struggling, and Moss’s addition was expected to revive the Vikings air attack. However, Moss failed to deliver big plays in Minnesota and struggled during his short stay with the team.
In four games with the Vikings, he managed just 13 receptions for 174 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This week, against his former team in New England, Moss caught just one pass for eight yards.
Because the trade deadline has passed, Moss will be on waivers for 24 hours. ESPN is reporting that a number of teams are interested in Moss.
Of the playoff-contending teams, the Redskins, Rams, Bears, Raiders, Seahawks, and Chiefs are most in need of help at wide receiver.
Fantasy Impact
With Moss on the shelf and with two more bye weeks remaining, his owners are left with the unenviable task of trying to replace the player they likely tabbed as a WR1 entering the season.
At this point, the only route to replacing a WR1 is via trade. However, moving Moss when he has little to no trade value is not a viable option. Moss owners should hold onto him and hope he ends up on a wide receiver?needy team that will be likely to use him in the starting lineup.
At this point in the season, only playoff contenders are likely to acquire Moss, given his surly reputation; and only those teams willing to use him as a starter are likely to be interested in paying for his services. However, given his lack of production in both New England and in Minnesota—and his quick flameout with the Vikings—don’t expect him to ramp up his production with the team he signs with.
The best hope for Moss owners lies in the Patriots bringing him back into the fold and reinserting him in the starting lineup. While that may seem a far-fetched proposition at initial glance, a closer look reveals valid reasons for the Patriots to bring him back.
While Moss clearly sulked his way out of New England, the Patriots passing attack has suffered since he left. This year quarterback Tom Brady passed for 911 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions with Moss in the lineup. In his three games without Moss, Brady has thrown for only 691 yards and three touchdowns with the same number of interceptions.
By: Dave Stringer — October 29, 2010 @ 12:58 pm
1. Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams has had a rough start to the 2010 season with just 361 yards and a single touchdown during the team’s first six games. Williams has suffered from Carolina’s lack of production in the passing game. However, there is hope on the horizon in the form of the Panthers upcoming schedule, and that makes Williams a definite buy-low candidate provided his foot injury isn’t severe. Over the next five weeks, the Panthers face run defenses ranked 15th or lower (Rams, 15th; Saints, 16th; Bucs, 31st; Browns, 19th). Unfortunately, the fantasy playoffs are a mixed bag, with the Falcons (8th), Cardinals (29th), and Steelers (1st).
 The ultimate buy-low candidate. 2. Keeping with that theme, let’s have a look at the case of the Cowboys’ Felix Jones. Jones hasn’t been a complete bust this season, but his 36th ranking at running back is disappointing considering many were predicting a breakout season for the speedy tailback from Arkansas. There are some positives for Jones, however, and he could be ready for a big second half. Over the last three games, he has 55 touches to just 24 for Marion Barber; and Jones has racked up 126, 93, and 62 total yards in those games, with the 62 coming against a stiff Giants defense. Here are the rankings of the run defenses the Cowboys face between Week 8 and Week 16: Jaguars (25th), Packers (23rd), Giants (3rd), Lions (26th), Saints (16th), Colts (25th), Eagles (18th), Redskins (20th), Cardinals (29th). That makes Jones perhaps the ultimate buy-low candidate.
3. With the acquisition of wide receiver Brandon Marshall from the Broncos and with strong-armed Chad Henne at quarterback, the Dolphins offense was expected to feature more big plays in the passing game this season. However, that has failed to materialize, and Marshall has contributed just four plays of 20 yards or longer, two plays of more than 40 yards, and only one touchdown. While he has been a solid contributor in the passing game with 524 yards in six games (projected to a career-high 1,397 yards), the big plays aren’t going to come until the Dolphins rushing attack begins forcing opposing defenses to play closer to the line of scrimmage and out of the cover two defense the team has faced for most of 2010.
4. There have been a lot of stops and starts on Beanie Wells’ path to becoming the Cardinals full-time starter at running back, but it now appears that he will assume the starting role over incumbent Tim Hightower. After Hightower lost his fourth fumble of the season (all of which have come at inopportune times), head coach Ken Whisenhunt noted that there would be a point where fumbling issues would cost players playing time—a comment clearly directed at Hightower. If Wells does indeed get the promotion, it comes in perfect timing with the Cardinals facing the Buccaneers’ 31st-ranked run defense this week.
5. Speaking of the Buccaneers run defense, it has gone completely downhill over their last four games. After allowing just a combined 223 yards on the ground to the Browns and Panthers during their first two games, the Bucs have allowed 723 rushing yards over their last four games, an average of 181 yards per game. Safe to say that it’s high time to get your running backs in the starting lineup if they face the Bucs.
6. It looks like the biggest benefactor in Green Bay’s offense after tight end Jermichael Finley’s season-ending injury is wide receiver Greg Jennings. Jennings has come out of his four-game slumber over the last two weeks, catching 12 passes for 207 yards and a pair of scores. With Donald Driver suffering from a quadriceps injury that is clearly slowing him down (3 catches for 31 yards in Week 6, and held off the score sheet this week), Jennings figures to keep producing. As for Driver, keep him on your bench until the quadriceps injury is healed.
7. It appeared that Cardinals wide receiver Steve Breaston would be back in the lineup in Week 7, but instead he missed his third consecutive game. He was held out due to the playing conditions in Seattle but will return to the starting lineup this week. That bodes well for quarterback Max Hall and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who should see fewer double teams with Breaston starting.
8. It looks like the Bills are close to giving up on 2009 first-round pick Aaron Maybin. With Buffalo switching to a 3-4 defense, Maybin was converted to a pass-rushing role as an outside linebacker after a disastrous rookie season in which he failed to record a sack and saw minimal playing time due to his inability to hold the point in the rushing game. He was inactive this week during the Bills trip to his hometown of Baltimore, and Bills head coach Chan Gailey was clearly sending a strong message, reasoning that the team would play the players who give them the best chance to win. Maybin barely played during the two games prior to the trip to Baltimore, and it doesn’t look like he will see field again for a while, barring injuries to the team’s other linebackers. This is likely to be his last season in Buffalo, and if that happens, he will be another in a long line of questionable Bills draft picks.
9. The Texans were dealt a huge blow to their defense when middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury during the their Week 6 win over the Chiefs. The team announced this week that starting strong-side linebacker Brian Cushing will slide over to the middle with Kevin Bentley starting on the strong side. While that would generally increase a player’s IDP production, it’s not necessarily the case this time. Since entering the league, Cushing has out-produced Ryans, so he may see fewer tackles in his new role. Bentley becomes an intriguing option, although you should wait to see how he does this week against the Colts before adding him to your roster in IDP leagues.
10. Has there ever been an instance in which a team as talented as the Chargers made two completely boneheaded plays in one game? First off, rookie wide receiver Richard Goodman was credited with a fumble after making a 25-yard reception on his first reception as a pro. No big deal, right? Except he went to the ground untouched after making the catch, put the ball on the ground, and got up and walked away. It’s not college, big fella. Later, fullback Jacob Hester was the target on a swing pass that he failed to catch. Only problem was the swing pass was actually a backwards pass, and as Hester jogged back to the huddle, the Patriots recovered the ball and returned it 63 yards to the Chargers eight-yard line.
11. Keeping with the Chargers, they have now lost 12 fumbles, the most in the league, including three in the red zone. With all the fumbles, it’s no wonder the Chargers sit at 2-5 despite having the top-ranked offense and defense in the league.
 Here's to you, T.O.! 12. Here’s to Bengals wide receiver Terrell Owens, who scored his 150th career touchdown this week against the Falcons, making him only the fifth player to accomplish that feat. Owens is currently on pace to finish the year with 1,504 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, so we can now officially say that his lack of production last year in Buffalo was a direct result of the team’s poor quarterback play and unimaginative offense.
13. Despite uneven play at the quarterback position, the Titans offense has been on fire this season. They are second in the league in scoring at 28.4 points per game and have topped 30 points in each of their last three games. If you follow the theory that a rising tide lifts all boats (and you should), then it’s time to start adding some Titans to your roster. Running back Chris Johnson and wide receiver Kenny Britt have seven touchdowns each; but it’s unlikely that distribution will continue going forward, so Nate Washington and Bo Scaife are decent pickups given that they can likely be had for next to nothing at the moment.
14. Broncos owner Pat Bowlen has been a staunch defender of head coach Josh McDaniels over the last season and a half, and the team’s fans have generally been supportive of McDaniels as well. However, that support seems to have dried up considerably after the Broncos were crushed at home this week by a score of 59-14 to the hated Raiders. It seems that bad coaching, bad drafting, and horrendous trades are perfectly acceptable to Bowlen and Broncos fans, but losing to the Raiders is simply unacceptable. After going 6-0 to start the 2009 season, the Broncos are 4-13 since then, and their biggest problems have been their inability to generate a consistent rushing attack and their failure to stop the run. As John Madden used to repeatedly say, if you can’t run and you can’t stop the run, you’re not going to win many games in the NFL. During the Broncos’ 13 losses over the last two seasons, they have given up 173 or more rushing yards seven times and over 200 rushing yards five times. If the Broncos don’t start winning soon, look for McDaniels to insert rookie first-round pick Tim Tebow into the starting lineup in an attempt to appease the Broncos faithful and buy himself one more season in Denver.
15. The Ravens secondary had a strong start to the 2010 season, which was unexpected given preseason predictions that they would struggle early with safety Ed Reed out of the lineup. After four games, that proved to be wrong, and the Ravens were near the top of the league in passing defense, having surrendered only one passing touchdown and just 119 passing yards per game. However, the wheels have come off over the past three weeks, with Baltimore giving up 314 yards to Kyle Orton, 292 yards to Tom Brady, and—worst of all—382 yards this week to Ryan Fitzpatrick. They have also allowed seven touchdowns over that span, with Fitzpatrick tossing four of them. Looks like it’s time to get your receivers and tight ends in against Baltimore.
16. Earlier this season, Rams running back Steven Jackson moved past Marshall Faulk to become the franchise’s second all-time leading rusher. During the Rams loss to the Bucs this week, Jackson moved ahead of Eric Dickerson into first place. Nice company to keep.
17. The question du jour this week is what to make of new Cowboys starting quarterback Jon Kitna. With Tony Romo on the shelf for a minimum of six weeks with a broken left clavicle (and most likely for the season since the Cowboys are unlikely to be in the playoff hunt by the time he is healthy), Kitna shapes up as the team’s starter for the balance of 2010. While he has barely played since the 2008 season, he did put up a pair of 4,000-yard seasons in 2007 (4,066 yards) and 2006 (4,208 yards), and the Cowboys offense features more talented skill position players than those teams—along with a comparable offensive line. Kitna is thirty-eight years old, but his arm showed some zip this week and appears to have the strength to hit some deep passes to the team’s trio of talented wide receivers. My guess is that he shapes up as a solid backup for fantasy purposes—one I would be comfortable starting on a weekly basis if necessary. If you need a quarterback and Kitna is available, grab him from the waiver wire rather than deplete your roster in a trade to fill your quarterback needs.
By: Dave Stringer — October 27, 2010 @ 2:10 am
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
Here are Fitzpatrick’s fantasy points in his last four games: 22, 21, 23, 36. Better yet, the 36 game was a road game against the Ravens in which Fitzpatrick threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns. Another added bonus with Fitzpatrick is that he can scramble and has chipped in 116 rushing yards. That’s almost three fantasy points per game, which is nice gravy if you are relying on a quarterback who is starting in a questionable offense.
Jon Kitna, Cowboys
Initial indications are that Tony Romo is out at least 6-8 weeks with a broken clavicle and that means Kitna will step under center for the Cowboys. While this warrants a downgrade for all of the Cowboys receivers, it moves Kitna into the “Moving Up” category since he was persona non grata before the Romo injury. No, he’s not going to replace Romo’s production. No, he’s probably not going to be starter worthy, certainly not for his first couple of games. However, he does have a pile of impressive weapons at his disposal and he does have a pair of 4,000 yard passing seasons under his belt – the last one in 2007. He’s worth grabbing as a fantasy backup and, who knows, maybe you hit the jackpot.
Moving Down
Jay Cutler, Bears
One game, Cutler can’t avoid the rush and his stats suffer; the next game, he avoids the rush and throws a bunch of picks. On a side note, it was humorous to read that he planned to go after DeAngelo Hall again—and even funnier to see Hall pick him off four times. Proof that Cutler’s bravado is a little bigger than his brain at times. Anyway, he has one touchdown pass in his last three games or, if you’re a cup-half-full guy, two in his last four. That’s not cutting it.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
 Believe it! Darren McFadden, Raiders
“Just the numbers, baby, just the numbers. Give me the deep ball on the play action, dammit, Tom!” There’s my ode to Al Davis. Here are McFadden’s numbers from his monster fantasy performance this week against the Broncos: 16 carries for 165 yards and three touchdowns, plus two receptions for 31 yards. That’s all the more impressive considering it was his first game back since suffering a knee injury in Week 4. Despite missing two games, McFadden is currently the fourth-ranked running back in total fantasy points and the top-ranked running back in points per game. It’s time to believe.
Brandon Jackson, Packers
If you read my column like you’re supposed to (it’s like the vitamins your mother told you to take—you may not like it but you have to do it), you know I’m not big on Jackson. Not big, not fast, not very shifty, not a great receiver. Not sure why he’s the lead back on the Packers offense. Now that that’s out of the way, it’s time to point out he’s coming off his finest game of the season. Against the Vikings he had 58 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries as well as three receptions for 46 yards. That gives him double-digit fantasy points in two of the last three weeks, which makes him a mid-tier RB2 at the moment.
LeGarrette Blount, Bucs
Blount had a nice game against the Rams this week, bowling over their defenders on his way to an 11-carry, 72-yard performance. With Cadillac Williams struggling and on his last legs, Blount will continue to see his workload increase, provided he can improve upon his blitz protection. The team won’t risk the health of franchise quarterback Josh Freeman, so Blount will continue to sit on passing downs until he picks up the team’s protection schemes. Nonetheless, while he doesn’t possess outstanding speed, he is clearly a physical back capable of churning out yards between the tackles and bouncing to the outside for extra yardage. Not to mention that he will clearly get the goal line work over the smaller Williams.
Moving Down
Cadillac Williams, Bucs
The Cadillac story is a compelling one. Alas, it appears to be in its final chapter in Tampa Bay. This week, the Bucs coaches followed through on their promise to get LeGarrette Blount more involved, and he performed well, rushing 11 times for 72 yards against the Rams. While the box score indicates that Williams had a solid fantasy performance, it is misleading, as he padded his stats with the game-winning touchdown with less than a minute to play. Blount got a healthy majority of the work on first and second downs with Williams subbing in on obvious passing downs. Williams is clearly the Bucs’ third-down back at this point.
Beanie Wells, Cardinals
I’m dropping my rankings for all Cardinals running backs and wide receivers until I see some decent play from their quarterbacks. Wells can’t do it all by himself, so it doesn’t much matter that Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt has indicated Tim Hightower will start to lose touches due to his fumbling issues.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
Mathews is clearly a very talented back, but he just isn’t getting enough touches to produce consistently, especially with Mike Tolbert getting the goal-line work. The ball clearly isn’t bouncing Mathews’ way, and it doesn’t help when the Chargers get behind early. This week, trailing the Patriots, head coach Norv Turner turned to Darren Sproles in the passing game, relegating Mathews to the bench for almost the entire second half. End result: 15 yards on eight carries with Tolbert stealing a score.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Kenny Britt, Titans
Granted, I’m not a rocket scientist, but anybody with a modicum of intelligence would say that Britt is clearly Moving Up, courtesy of his gangbuster performance this week. He torched the Eagles for seven receptions, 225 yards, and three touchdowns and is becoming a touchdown machine for the Titans, with seven over his last five games. Britt earned the ire of the Titans coaches by showing up for OTAs seriously out of shape, but he has heeded the lesson to become the team’s top wide receiver and is on the verge of establishing himself as a high-end WR2 for fantasy purposes.
Steve Johnson, Bills
I’ve had him here before, and it’s well past time for fantasy owners to consider making Johnson a regular presence in their starting lineups. He had the best game of his career this week against the Ravens, catching eight passes for 158 yards (both career highs) and a touchdown. He now has touchdowns in four straight games (five in total during that stretch) and has caught over 60 percent of his targets. Johnson’s chemistry with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has him sitting at a surprising 15th ranking among wide receivers.
David Gettis and Brandon LaFell, Panthers
Both of the Panthers rookie wide receivers had the best games of their careers this week, as they each lit up a struggling 49ers secondary. Gettis hauled in eight catches for 125 yards and a pair of scores while LaFell had a solid six receptions for 91 yards. With Matt Moore starting at quarterback and Steve Smith getting consistent double teams, the prospects for Gettis and LaFell are on the rise. Consider them worthy bench material at this point, in the hopes one of them establishes himself as the clear second option in Carolina.
Jordan Shipley, Bengals
Shipley had a career day this week against the Falcons, hauling in all six of his targets for 131 yards and his first career touchdown. For the season, he has caught 21 of his 25 targets for 321 yards and a score. With the Bengals struggling to get their running game going and defenses doing a solid job shutting down Chad Ochocinco (though not this week, mind you), look for the Bengals coaches to get Shipley more involved going forward. He is beginning to look like a decent flex play in larger leagues.
Moving Down
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
It’s officially time to give Fitzgerald a serious downgrade. While he is clearly one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, the Cardinals quarterback situation is causing his production to drop to unprecedented levels. Neither Derek Anderson nor Max Hall seems capable of consistently getting the ball to Fitzgerald and, as a result, he is currently the 35th-ranked among receivers who have played at least five games. This week he caught three of his 10 targets for 30 yards, and he is currently on pace to finish with less than 900 receiving yards and six touchdowns. And, no, I’m not even rating him as a solid buy-low guy.
Wes Welker, Patriots
Welker is another talented receiver suffering from issues beyond his control, only it’s clearly not the quarterback in New England causing his production to suffer. In Welker’s case, it’s the Randy Moss trade. In the two games since Moss was dealt to Minnesota, Welker has 11 receptions on 17 targets for 78 yards and no touchdowns. He is seeing more frequent double teams, which are reducing his yards after the catch. In addition, the Patriots are a far less explosive offense without Moss; they are now dinking and dunking their way down the field, and that reduces Welker’s touchdown opportunities. He is currently the 31st-ranked wide receiver and is on pace to finish the season with under 800 receiving yards.
Miles Austin, Roy Williams, and Dez Bryant, Cowboys
It’s a long way down from Tony Romo to Jon Kitna. While Kitna threw for two touchdowns in relief duty against the Giants, it was against a soft defense because New York had a solid lead. Romo is likely out for the year, so Kitna steps in—and he hasn’t played extensively since the fifth game of the 2008 season. At best, it’s going to take him awhile to shake off the rust.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
More injury problems at quarterback in San Francisco. Alex Smith is likely to miss time with a shoulder injury, an issue he’s had in the past. As mediocre as Smith had been this year, the 49ers had not gone to David Carr—and Carr showed us exactly why during his relief performance against the Panthers, going 5 of 13 for 67 yards and a key interception that cost the 49ers the game. It doesn’t bode well for Crabtree if Smith is out for an extended period.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Andrew Quarless, Packers
Some teams successfully draft lineman, some running backs, while some aren’t successful at drafting any single position. The Packers apparently know how to draft tight ends. With stud Jermichael Finley on injured reserve, the Packers dialed up rookie fifth-round pick Quarless this week, and he caught two passes for 16 yards and a score. Big deal, you say. Well, he should have had another 30 yards had he not fallen down on his way to making the catch. Plus, he looks like he’s more athletic than Donald Lee, which makes him the more logical candidate to take on a piece of Finley’s receiving role. If you’re desperate at tight end, Quarless is worth a look.
Todd Heap, Ravens
I keep getting asked by a friend what he should do with his tight end position because he wants an upgrade from Heap. Here’s the answer I keep giving him: Nothing. The Ravens offense started the season slowly, but they are averaging 25.8 points per game over the last five games, after starting the season with a pair of 10-point efforts. As for Heap, he is coming off a three-reception, 59-yard, two-touchdown performance and is currently ninth amongst active tight ends in fantasy points per game. Looking at the schedule, the Ravens face a number of bottom feeders over the next several weeks. Their schedule and his performance this week have Heap Moving Up.
Moving Down
Brent Celek, Eagles
A full seven games in, Celek has 21 receptions for 243 yards and a pair of touchdowns. That’s close to what he had during Kevin Kolb’s two starts last year. Worse yet, even with DeSean Jackson out of the lineup, Celek had only five targets this week, catching two passes for eight yards. At this point he is no longer a guaranteed starter, and his owners should be looking around their leagues for an upgrade.
By: Dave Stringer — October 22, 2010 @ 1:58 pm
 Garcon's value is on the rise. 1. Last week I told you that there were three quarterbacks on pace to top Dan Marino’s record for the most passing yards in a single season. One of the three was the Colts’ Peyton Manning, but the odds of him bettering Marino’s record took a major hit this week. Running back Joseph Addai may miss a number of weeks with nerve damage in his shoulder, and Manning will be without two of his top three receivers for a number of weeks, also. Tight end Dallas Clark has a rare type of wrist injury and is out indefinitely, while wide receiver Austin Collie will miss 2-4 weeks after undergoing surgery on his hand. Look for Manning’s numbers to drop slightly over the coming weeks as he adapts to either Jacob Tamme or Brody Eldridge at tight end and Blair White, an undrafted rookie free agent, at wide receiver. Former first round pick Anthony Gonzalez will also be available once his high ankle sprain heals. The player most likely to benefit is wide receiver Pierre Garcon, who should see plenty of targets until the team’s other receivers recover from their injuries.
2. Sticking with Manning, one of the issues with having the league’s premier player on your fantasy roster is that the Colts often have home field advantage locked up by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around .That leaves Manning owners with a tough decision on which of their quarterbacks to play—but there shouldn’t be any such conundrum this season. The AFC South is a tough division this year, with the Colts, Texans, and Titans all tied atop the division with 4-2 records and with Jacksonville a game back at 3-3. If the Colts lose another game or two while waiting for their numerous injury issues to go away, they are very unlikely to have home field locked up before Week 17.
3. Another top-tier quarterback who may see his fantasy production go down over the next couple weeks is Philip Rivers. The Chargers may be without all three of their top receivers this weekend, with Malcolm Floyd likely out and Legedu Naanee and Antonio Gates questionable. It’s a big drop from those three to Patrick Crayton, Buster Davis, and Randy McMichael. Look for Chargers head coach Norv Turner to get Darren Sproles more heavily involved in the passing game until the injury issues pass over. It also might be a great time to target Ryan Mathews as a buy-low candidate. Since returning to the lineup, Mathews hasn’t seen many carries, but that is more a result of the team playing from behind than of his actual performance. Mike Tolbert is still stealing the short-yardage work, but Mathews is clearly a talented player who will break out if he stays healthy.
4. Sticking with the Chargers, it looks like Vincent Jackson will sign his tender next week, serve a three-game team suspension, and then be in the lineup for Week 12. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, that’s too late to get anything in a trade for him, and he’s unlikely to establish himself as a quality starter before Week 15 or 16. If some other team is desperate, unload V-Jax for some depth and move on.
5. You have to love the intelligence of some of the players in the league. Bucs defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, the third player taken in this year’s rookie draft, told reporters that he was going to “kill” former college teammate quarterback Sam Bradford. Presumably McCoy missed the news that two players were fined $50,000 this week for illegal hits while another player received a $75,000 fine.
6. Continuing with the fines handed down by the NFL this week and the intelligence of some the league’s players, did Steelers linebacker James Harrison really think his comments about retiring were anything more than a major league sulk job? Since he signed a six-year, $51.2 million contract with a $10 million signing bonus and $20 million in guarantees, Harrison would have to cut a significant check to the Steelers and forego an additional $10 million in guarantees if he were to retire. No surprise then that he returned to the team after “debating” his retirement for a day.
7. Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno, the first running back taken in the 2009 draft, has had a slow start to the season due to a hamstring injury suffered in the preseason—and with 12 carries for 48 yards, he didn’t do much in his first game since Week 2. Moreno owners also certainly took note of the 13 carries that went to Correll Buckhalter and Laurence Maroney. However, Moreno was benched for committing a false start penalty and fumbling and was likely being eased back into action by head coach Josh McDaniels. Look for Moreno to have his first big game of the year this week at home against a Raiders run defense that is once again among the worst in the league.
8. While Eagles head coach Andy Reid’s comments can never be taken at face value, I am convinced that Michael Vick will be back under center as soon as he is healthy. That being said, it is worth noting that with his 326-yard performance this week, Kevin Kolb has now passed for over 300 yards in three of his five career starts. Only two other quarterbacks have accomplished this feat.
9. Given their 1-4 record, it would be easy to write off the Cowboys’ playoff chances. But a closer look reveals that none of their losses has been by more than seven points. Dallas remains a talented team that is capable of going on a lengthy winning streak, which would be more likely if they could reign in their propensity for shooting themselves in the foot with numerous penalties.
10. Earlier this season, Rams running back Steven Jackson passed Marshall Faulk to become the franchise’s second-leading rusher. Jackson now stands just 32 yards shy of surpassing Eric Dickerson to become the Rams all-time leading rusher.
11. Ravens wide receiver Donte’ Stallworth is back practicing with the team after breaking a bone in his left foot during the preseason that kept him out of the first six games. Baltimore signed Stallworth to provide a speed element to their group of wide receivers, and he figures to be used on deep plays to help soften up opposing defenses. With tight end Todd Heap enjoying a productive season and Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason playing well, there is a possibility the Ravens could jettison T.J. Houshmandzadeh from the roster at some point. While that might sound ridiculous to some, Houshmandzadeh is no longer the player he was in Cincinnati, and he has made waves in Baltimore since signing with the Ravens, after being released by the Seahawks in the preseason. Showing his frustration might have been acceptable if he were producing, but he has just nine receptions for 128 yards and a touchdown in six games this season. Ravens management may well decide that Houshmandzadeh is likely to act out if Stallworth’s presence reduces his role (which is likely), and that he is more bother than he is worth at this point in his career. It doesn’t help matters than none of the Ravens top four wide receivers play special teams, which makes it possible that Houshmandzadeh could even become a game-day inactive when Stallworth returns.
12. I am the first to admit that I am not a huge college football fan, but my friends who are say that the performance of Rams wide receiver Danario Alexander in his first game as a pro was no fluke. Alexander caught four of his five targets for 74 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers, blowing past a flat-footed Antoine Cason before making a nice diving catch in the end zone. Alexander was expected to be a taken in the early rounds of the draft; that was, before he suffered a knee injury at The Senior Bowl, which caused him to go undrafted. The Rams other outside receivers (Brandon Gibson, Laurent Robinson, Mardy Gilyard) are unproven players, so Alexander has a chance to impress. While he’s hardly a candidate to start on a weekly basis in 10-team leagues, he could be useful in larger redraft leagues and is a great prospect in dynasty formats.
13. Another wide receiver that is worth picking up is Jason Avant of the Eagles. Avant will step into the starting lineup until DeSean Jackson returns from the concussion he suffered against the Falcons. The concussion is Jackson’s second since entering the league, and it’s possible that could cause him to miss multiple games. Like most teams in the league, the Eagles do not divulge any more information on injuries than is required, but players with multiple concussions are often held out for more than a week. While Avant is no threat to supplant Jackson or Jeremy Maclin in the starting lineup, he is a solid receiver on short and intermediate routes and is not afraid to go across the middle. He also has decent size and could steal some targets in the red zone.
14. With their loss this week to the Giants in New York, Detroit tied their own record of 24 for most consecutive road losses. Fortunately for the Lions, their next road game is in Buffalo in Week 10, where they have a solid chance to snap that losing streak.
15. Keeping with the Lions, rookie running back Jahvid Best was a fantasy revelation after the first two weeks of the season, with 55 fantasy points—40 of which came during a monster Week 2 performance against the Eagles. However, he has struggled since then, with just 274 total yards and no touchdowns. Worst yet, he has averaged just 3.2 yards per carry during that four-game span.
16. Could a 0-16 season be in the cards for the Panthers? After this week’s home game against 1-5 San Francisco, their remaining home games are against teams that currently have winning records. Their only road game against a team that currently has a losing record comes in Week 12 against the Browns.
17. If you go to the San Diego Chargers page on NFL.com, you will see that they rank first in the league in both offense and defense. Interesting stats considering they are 2-4. Further proof that there are lies, damn lies in statistics.
18. We all know about the Mike Martz factor on a team’s offense. Here’s further proof: The Bears gave up 35 sacks in 2009 but have given up 27 over just six games in 2010 (a projected total of 72 for the season).
19. Here’s to Chargers wide receiver Patrick Crayton for pointing out that his former coach in Dallas, Wade Philips, is very laid back and not involved in the team’s offense. If that’s not stating the obvious, I’m not sure what is. Philips has been a defensive coach for his entire career, and it is widely assumed that the only reason he has remained the Cowboys head coach, despite their repeated failures in the playoffs, is because he does what owner Jerry Jones tells him to do. If the NFL has a lap dog coach, Philips is it—and Crayton certainly would have been better-served keeping quiet on what is clearly well-known throughout the league.
By: Dave Stringer — October 19, 2010 @ 7:02 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
In his first game back after serving a four-game suspension, Roethlisberger looked to be in midseason form. Playing at home against a weak Browns defense, he looked rusty early in the game but shook it off to finish 16 of 27 for 257 yards and three touchdowns with a single pick. Roethlisberger’s owners have to be excited by his early success, and after this week’s performance, he looks like he could be a top ten fantasy quarterback over the balance of the season.
Moving Down
 A big part of the problem. Brett Favre, Vikings
After an up-and-down performance last week in his first game with Randy Moss replenishing the team’s depth chart at wide receiver, Favre fell back to earth this Sunday against the Cowboys. He finished the Vikings 24-21 win going 14 of 19 for 118 yards and a touchdown, throwing for less than 200 yards for the second time in five games. (He managed just 201 yards in one of those other three games.) It’s looking more and more like Favre—not just his receivers—could be a big part of the problem with the Vikings passing game.
Jason Campbell, Raiders
Just in case you were holding onto Campbell in hopes that he would win the starting job back from Bruce Gradowski and become productive, you can now safely move on. Subbing again for an injured Gradowski, Campbell went 8 for 21 with 83 yards and two picks against an average 49ers secondary. He has failed to top 200 yards passing in four games and is averaging just over 125 passing yards per game.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Ryan Torain, Redskins
Torain was impressive this week, topping 100 yards for the first time in his career. Playing against the soft Indy run defense, he had 104 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. He gets a tough Bears run defense next, followed by a pair of softies (Lions and Eagles) with the team’s bye in the middle. With Clinton Portis’s return not yet on the horizon, Torain is beginning to look like a low-end RB2.
Chris Ivory, Saints
Ivory clearly separated himself from the Saints’ other backup running backs this week with his first big performance of the season. He had a healthy 158 yards on just 15 carries and chipped in 17 receiving yards on his lone reception. Ladell Betts and Julius Jones looked pedestrian against the Bucs, and Pierre Thomas has yet to even test his injured ankle in practice, which means Ivory could be line for significant touches against a porous Browns defense.
Danny Woodhead, Patriots
It looks like Woodhead has assumed Kevin Faulk’s role in the Patriots offense and is getting plenty of playing time when the team runs its no-huddle. He is splitting time with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and is also being used on passing downs while Green-Ellis gets the short-yardage work. In the Patriots pass-heavy offense, Woodhead figures to get enough looks to be a solid flex option. He has 25 touches over the last two games and has turned that into 162 yards and a touchdown.
Moving Down
Willis McGahee, Ravens
McGahee was a decent flex play last season and was shaping up to be one again in 2010 in larger leagues. It might be time to change that line of thinking. This week against the Patriots, he failed to get on the field as the Ravens went exclusively with Ray Rice and LeRon McClain. Repeat after me: Not One Single Play. No plays means no touches, which means there’s no point in owning him.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Legedu Naanee and Patrick Crayton, Chargers
Injuries create opportunities and it looks like Naanee and Crayton are the two Chargers most likely to benefit from the injuries suffered by wide receiver Malcom Floyd and tight end Antonio Gates. Early reports indicate that Floyd will miss this coming game against the Patriots; Gates may be able to suit up. However, Gates is likely to see a reduced workload due to his injured ankle. Naanee is dealing with an injured hamstring but appears ready to return. Crayton has already taken advantage of his increased role, catching six of seven targets for 117 yards against the Rams.
Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant, Eagles
One player is here because of his production and the other is here because of his opportunity. After this week’s monster performance (seven receptions for 159 yards and two touchdowns), Maclin now has six touchdowns in six games and is the fourth-ranked fantasy wide receiver. With DeSean Jackson expected to miss at least one game with a concussion (and possibly several more), Avant will step into the starting lineup—and he has produced when given an opportunity in the past. In 2009 he caught 41 of 58 targets for 587 yards and three touchdowns. He immediately becomes a decent bye-week starter as long as Jackson is out.
Johnny Knox, Bears
Okay, Devin Hester fans, it’s officially time to give up on his becoming the go-to wide receiver in the Bears offense. That role officially belongs to Johnny Knox. At a certain point, the numbers can’t lie. That point occurred during this week’s game against the Seahawks. Knox saw 11 targets to just three for Hester, and he turned those targets into five receptions for 120 yards. For the season, Knox has been targeted 34 times, catching 18 passes for an eye-opening 392 yards—an average of 21.8 yards per reception. While he hasn’t yet found the end zone, it’s safe to assume that those big plays will translate into touchdown production in the coming weeks. More on Hester below in the Moving Down section.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
Since Michael Johnson took over as offensive coordinator in San Francisco three games ago, Crabtree has had 18 receptions for 220 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He is also averaging just under nine targets per game, which means he has regained quarterback Alex Smith’s trust. It’s gone from night to day since Jimmy Raye was fired. If Crabtree is languishing on another team’s bench, go get him.
Deion Branch, Patriots
I didn’t think Branch had much left to offer, but he certainly proved me wrong this week with nine receptions for 98 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens. With Brandon Tate not ready to assume a large part in the Patriots offense, and with defenses likely to clamp down on Wes Welker, Branch should be in line for plenty of single coverage in the coming weeks. There’s a bit of a qualifier with this one since the Ravens secondary played very poorly this week. Nonetheless, Branch proved that he can still beat mid-level corners. He looks like a WR3 going forward.
Mike Williams, Seahawks
Williams had been relatively silent since an encouraging Week 1 performance against the 49ers when he had four receptions for 64 yards. A shoulder injury suffered in Week 3 appeared to have slowed him down. But with Deion Branch traded, Williams was featured this week against the Bears and came through in a big way with 10 receptions for 123 yards on 15 targets. He shapes up as the Seahawks’ top wide receiver at the moment, but that figures to be a fluid situation, with Deon Butler and possibly Golden Tate getting some opportunities for big roles as well.
Moving Down
Devin Hester, Bears
Aside from a solid performance in Week 1 against the Cowboys, Hester has been a complete non-factor this season and is playing worse than he did in 2009. He is currently on pace to finish the year with 405 receiving yards, which would be his lowest production since being shifted to wide receiver on a full-time basis for the 2008 season. Here are his fantasy points per game: 1, 13, 1, 2, 1, 2. Here are his receiving yardage totals: 17, 77, 16, 16, 0, 26. There you have it. There is a one-in-six chance he will help your fantasy squad on any given week.
Kevin Walter, Texans
Looks like the target well has run dry for Walter in Houston. After his monster performance in Week 2, Walter has been held to under 35 receiving yards for three straight games and did not get a single target this week against the Chiefs. With Andre Johnson, Jacoby Jones, and Owen Daniels all healthy, it looks like Walter will be relegated to a minor role in the Texans offense.
Brandon Tate, Patriots
To be honest, I never felt like Tate was ready to take over for Randy Moss in New England, and he showed during this week’s win over the Ravens just how unprepared he is to become a major contributor in the team’s pass-heavy offense. Tate was targeted four times but failed to catch a single pass during a game in which Tom Brady attempted 44 passes.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Owen Daniels, Texans
Nothing spectacular from Daniels this week but, then again, we learned early in 2010 that he wasn’t going to duplicate his production from last year—at least not until he was fully recovered from the knee injury that prematurely ended his 2009 season. He had his first big game of the year this week against the Chiefs, catching five passes for 79 yards. While Daniels failed to find the end zone, his performance was still encouraging, given that his season-high for receiving yards had been 45 and he was averaging just 23 yards per game.
Ben Watson, Browns
After languishing in New England, Watson has clearly found a home in Cleveland. Always known for his superlative physical ability but a disappointment due to his inability to turn that into production, Watson has blossomed in Cleveland and is the ninth-ranked fantasy tight end after six weeks. This week, with six receptions for 88 yards and a score, he played his best game since Week 11 of the 2008 season. With the Browns struggling to get production from their wide receivers, Watson has been getting a steady number of targets and has topped 45 yards in five of six games in 2010.
Moving Down
Greg Olsen, Bears
Olsen had been surprisingly productive through four weeks, given the history of starting tight ends in a Mike Martz offense. However, the wheels have fallen off over the last two weeks, with Olsen failing to make even a dent in the stat column. And after two straight games without a single reception, Olsen should be nailed to your bench until he puts up a decent performance.
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