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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — May 11, 2010 @ 9:15 am
The rookie draft and free agency didn’t produce any significant player movement at the tight end position but a number of players were affected by their team’s ability to secure talent at the other offensive skill positions.
Our updated rankings don’t include any major movements with Heath Miller, Greg Olsen and Brandon Pettigrew moving down and no player moving up significantly. Fred Davis of the Redskins moves up from 25th to 19th, but he’s a fantasy backup at best with solid upside for dynasty leagues.
The 2010 tight end crop is loaded with talented players so the days of needing to grab one of the top three or four players at the position are over. The drop-off starts at four after Dallas Clark but it wouldn’t be a surprise if any of the next four players finished in the top five.
However, the value and upside starts dropping quickly after Jason Witten at number eight. If you miss out on one of the top eight, then my advice is to move on to other positions and wait until later in your draft or auction to address the position.
Each player’s prior ranking is noted in parentheses after the current ranking.
1. (1) Antonio Gates, SD
No change at the top. I expect Gates to reclaim the title of fantasy football’s premier tight end. The addition of running back Ryan Mathews shouldn’t hurt Gates’ touchdown totals.
2. (3) Vernon Davis, SF
Do you believe? Apparently I do. Expect a repeat of his 2009 breakout campaign but maybe not quite the 13 touchdowns he had last year.
3. (2) Brent Celek, PHI
Don’t be shocked. He’s talented, he plays in a solid offense and new quarterback Kevin Kolb loves throwing to him (208 yards and a touchdown during Kolb’s two starts last year). Not to mention he was the fourth ranked fantasy tight end in 2009.
4. (4) Dallas Clark, IND
Career year in 2009 but more competition for targets with Anthony Gonzalez returning plus Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie earning more looks after improving throughout the 2009 season.
5. (5) Jermichael Finley, GB
Laugh at me now if you like but you might be crying later. Finley amassed 97 fantasy points in only nine starts and averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game over the last five games of the season. There is a good argument that he should be the top ranked tight end in dynasty leagues.
6. (6) Owen Daniels, HOU
Bit of an injury risk so his recovery needs to be monitored. However, he was having a career year last year and likely would have been the top ranked fantasy tight end had he not torn his ACL. Daniels averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game during the first seven weeks before going down in week eight.
7. (7) Tony Gonzalez, ATL
Here’s the dilemma—does he have upside because he was underutilized last year or downside because he’s a year older? Gonzalez stays in phenomenal shape but it is hard to move him higher.
8. (9) Jason Witten, DAL
Plenty of yards last year with 1,030 but finished eighth in the rankings because of his two touchdown receptions. Cowboys feature big wide receivers in Miles Austin, Roy Williams and Dez Bryant to go along with an outstanding short yardage runner in Marion Barber. Expect more touchdowns and fewer yards with hotshot rookie Bryant on board.
9. (11) Zach Miller, OAK
Miller gets a decent quarterback for the first time in his career in Jason Campbell. Miller is the most underrated tight end in the league so he could surprise.
10. (10) Kellen Winslow, TB
Racks up the yardage totals when healthy but has never topped five touchdown receptions in a year, which begs the question why anyone should bank on that happening in 2010 given the team’s young, raw talent on offense.
11. (8) Heath Miller, PIT
Coming off a career year but moves down due to Ben Roethlisberger’s four to six game suspension. Miller may become a solid check down option for Dennis Dixon, Charlie Batch or Byron Leftwich, but touchdown totals will almost certainly suffer.
12. (12) Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN
He’s been solid two years running but with Shiancoe, it’s all about the touchdowns. Has never surpassed 600 yards but has 18 touchdowns over the last two seasons. That means his production is going to be inconsistent and it also increases his risk factor.
13. (15) Chris Cooley, WAS
He’s talented and the Redskins have upgraded the talent at quarterback with Donovan McNabb, but Fred Davis is breathing down his neck. I expect Cooley to retain the job but Davis is too good not to be utilized or else I would have him higher. An ankle injury from last year is of no concern for 2010.
14. (14) John Carlson, SEA
Coming off a sophomore slump, Carlson has a new head coach in Pete Carroll who figures to be more imaginative on offense. However, if he has to pass protect to help the offensive line, he will be around the 80 target mark again in 2010 which prevents him from being a quality starter for fantasy purposes.
15. (17) Kevin Boss, NYG
Somewhat surprisingly, the Giants failed to draft a tight end. Boss has increased his yardage totals every year but the team ignored him in the red zone for the first half of 2009. Boss did finish with five touchdowns over his last nine games so it’s up to you to decide whether that was a mirage or whether it foreshadows fantasy glory in 2010.
16. (13) Greg Olsen, CHI
He’s talented but new offensive coordinator Mike Martz is stubborn and doesn’t utilize tight ends. Look no further than the case of Vernon Davis. Forgotten by Martz, Davis became a Pro Bowl tight end once Martz left.
17. (18) Todd Heap, BAL
Heap had a bit of a bounce back season in 2009 but has two rookies behind him who the Ravens are high on. No upside potential here.
18. (19) Dustin Keller, NYJ
Underutilized by the Jets in 2009 and with Santonio Holmes now on board to compliment Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery, there is no reason to expect that to change in 2010.
19. (25) Fred Davis, WAS
Looked good last year replacing Cooley but has limited upside until one of them is on a new team.
20. (20) Jeremy Shockey, NO
Played well when he was healthy in 2009 but has promising rookie James Graham and solid receiver David Thomas behind him. It wouldn’t be a total shocker if Shockey is fighting for his job in August.
21. (16) Brandon Pettigrew, DET
Last year’s top ranked rookie tight end but is recovering from a knee injury and may not be fully healthy on opening day plus he now has Tony Scheffler to contend with. In a nutshell, the odds of him breaking out are pretty much zilch. Too bad since he was playing well when he was hurt (15 receptions for 165 yards and two touchdowns in the three games before the injury).
22. (22) Marcedes Lewis, JAC
Keeps adding to his yardage total but can’t top two touchdowns in a season. Why should you expect that to happen in 2010? You shouldn’t.
23. (21) Tony Scheffler, DET
Goes from being a forgotten man in Josh McDaniels’ Denver wonderland to being a backup in Detroit. Makes you wonder what Scheffler did in his past lives.
24. (NR) Evan Moore, CLE
This guy looks the part of a solid pass catcher. No, really. I mean it. Oops, Jake Delhomme is his quarterback.
25. (NR) Jermaine Gresham, CIN
Forecasting solid production from rookie tight ends is kind of like expecting to win the lottery. It is very rare, especially when they play in an offense that’s going to run and run a lot.
26. (23) Anthony Fasano, MIA
It’s all about the touchdowns with Fasano and the Dolphins got some guy in the offseason named Brandon Marshall who has pretty good size.
27. (27) Bo Scaife, TEN
Showed some promise as a young player but his ceiling seems to be 30-40 yards a game and maybe a touchdown or two on the season.
28. (34) Leonard Pope, KC
Chiefs have to throw to some tight end. Maybe Pope’s the guy.
29. (24) Daniel Fells, STL
The talentless Rams didn’t bother to offer him a tender but re-signed him when the Patriots showed some interest. Luckily for Fells, the Rams had so many needs that they didn’t bother drafting a tight end until the fifth and sixth rounds of the rookie draft. If they don’t like him, why should you?
30. (31) Jared Cook, TEN
He’s talented and Scaife has a low ceiling, so Cook’s playing time will increase but maybe not until midseason. Has some upside if he can win the starting job.
31. (29) Brad Cottam, KC—Yawn.
32. (28) David Thomas, NO
I like this guy but unless Shockey is cut, Thomas’ playing time will decrease due to the presence of rookie James Graham.
33. (30) Dante Rosario, CAR
Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane.
34. (32) Ben Watson, NE—See above.
The following player dropped off the rankings from last time:
NR (33) James Casey, HOU
Nothing against Casey but Gresham has to be included and other players figure to have more opportunity. Casey remains a decent option for dynasty leagues.
By: Dave Stringer — May 6, 2010 @ 1:23 pm
The post-rookie draft quarterback rankings are in so let’s move on to the running backs, the meat of any fantasy football roster.
With the rookie running back crop weaker than normal and only one of the top four backs guaranteed a major role in 2010, the NFL rookie draft didn’t significantly alter the fantasy landscape for next year.
The biggest developments since my initial rankings, published in early-March, were as follows:
- Ryan Mathews drafted by the Chargers,
- C.J. Spiller drafted by the Bills,
- Jahvid Best drafted by the Lions,
- Ben Tate drafted by the Texans,
- LenDale White and Leon Washington traded to the Seahawks,
- Brandon Marshall traded to the Dolphins (Knowshon Moreno’s touchdown opportunities take a hit),
- Donovan McNabb traded to the Redskins (Portis looks more intriguing now),
- LaDainian Tomlinson signed by the Jets,
- Montario Hardesty drafted by the Browns, and
- Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension (more work for Rashard Mendenhall).
I’ll end the suspense—very little changed at the top of the rankings but there are some significant considerations later on. No change in the top nine.
It’s worth noting that Brian Westbrook is the only notable veteran running back that remains unsigned. However, he passed a physical with St. Louis and is mulling his options which appear to be limited. Bet on him being a Ram in the coming weeks. Don’t bet on him having any impact on Steven Jackson’s fantasy value.
Each player’s prior ranking is noted in parentheses after the current ranking.
1. (1) Adrian Peterson, MIN
Would have taken a hit had the Vikings taken a solid pass catching back in the draft such as Jahvid Best. However, second round pick Toby Gerhart isn’t such a threat and is very similar to Peterson.
2. (2) Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
There were some rumors that the Jaguars would use the tenth pick in the draft on C.J. Spiller but that didn’t happen.
3. (3) Chris Johnson, TEN
The trade of LenDale White removes a slight bit of risk to Johnson’s opportunities, but I figured White’s role would have been the same this year as it was last year had he stayed anyway.
4. (4) Ray Rice, BAL
Holding steady at number four.
5. (5) Frank Gore, SF
Same position as the prior rankings but more upside here due to the addition of two offensive lineman in the draft. Put it this way—he’s much closer to Rice than he is to Steve Jackson.
6. (6) Steven Jackson, STL
The presence of rookie quarterback Sam Bradford doesn’t impact Jackson much but the addition of Rodger Saffold helps along the offensive line. Ignore the back surgery—all indications are that it was not a significant procedure.
7. (7) Michael Turner, ATL
8. (8) DeAngelo Williams, CAR
9. (9) Ryan Grant, GB
Waiting until the sixth round to take James Starks shows management’s confidence in Grant.
10. (13) Cedric Benson, CIN
Up three spots. No real reason other than I’m more comfortable that his 2009 season wasn’t a fluke.
11. (14) Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
Up three spots due to Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension and others sliding.
12. (11) Chris Wells, ARI
13. (12) Jonathan Stewart, CAR
14. (16) Pierre Thomas, NO
Up a couple notches. The Saints ignored the position in the draft and Lynell Hamilton is no threat to eat into Thomas’ carries.
15. (19) Shonn Greene, NYJ
Up four spots. Addition of Santonio Holmes makes the offense more explosive which should translate into more goal line opportunities for Greene.
16. (17) Matt Forte, CHI
Getting more convinced that Chester Taylor is destined for backup duty.
17. (10) Knowshon Moreno, DEN
Likely the most significant drop in the projections as Moreno falls from 10 to 17. Brandon Marshall’s trade leaves the team without a true number one receiver and if Tim Tebow is starting at the end of the season, Moreno will almost certainly struggle during the fantasy playoffs.
18. (NR) Ryan Mathews, SD
Rookie lucks out going to the Chargers high-powered offense. Touchdown opportunities await.
19. (21) Joseph Addai, IND
The misfortune of others moves Addai into the top 20.
20. (20) Ricky Williams, MIA
Don’t be surprised to see Ricky ahead of Ronnie. His role in the passing game puts him here.
21. (22) Jamaal Charles, KC
Don’t worry about the addition of Dexter McCluster. He’s going to be used in the slot with Charles the main threat on first and second down.
22. (23) Ronnie Brown, MIA
Are you getting the player who looked like a fantasy star for the first part of 2009, or the one who seems to get injured just when he’s starting to look like a fantasy stud?
23. (24) LeSean McCoy, PHI
24. (26) Brandon Jacobs, NYG
I guess I believe that his undisclosed knee injury from last season slowed him down. Could be a great value pick in 2010.
25. (28) Felix Jones, DAL
It looks like he’s the starter, but that doesn’t mean much if he can’t shoulder the load.
26. (29) Marion Barber, DAL
Seems like the Cowboys are convinced he’s a backup. At least he’s in a solid offense and figures to get the goal line work.
27. (30) Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
With Jacobs at full health, does Bradshaw’s role get reduced?
28. (27) Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, TB
Williams fits in the top 30 but there is not a lot of upside here.
29. (35) Clinton Portis, WAS
Can’t believe I moved him six spots. Yikes! Donovan McNabb helps his value so he moves into the top 30.
30. (31) Darren Sproles, SD
It looks like you can expect a duplicate performance from 2009 while Mathews is the bell cow.
31. (NR) C.J. Spiller, BUF
Here’s the second rookie on our list. Hard to believe he’s going to bust out behind the Bills shaky offensive line in a division loaded with solid defenses.
32. (15) Fred Jackson, BUF
Poor Freddie. It takes the Bills coaches almost a whole season to realize he should be starting ahead of Marshawn Lynch and then the team’s new management takes Spiller with the ninth overall pick. Jackson is likely the biggest fantasy loser from the rookie draft.
33. (NR) Jahvid Best, DET
I have a sneaky suspicion that Best could have a surprising season. Detroit’s offense is on the way up (but not way up, mind you).
34. (33) Michael Bush, OAK
While others overspend on Darren McFadden, you wait and get the value pick in Bush and are rewarded.
35. (34) Reggie Bush, NO
Keeps losing touches but that might be reversed in 2010 with Mike Bell out of the picture.
36. (36) Thomas Jones, KC
37. (NR) LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ
Not likely going to eat into Shonn Greene’s goal line carries but should produce behind the Jets solid offensive line.
38. (NR) LenDale White, SEA
White figures to be get the first and second down work as well as be the goal line back in Seattle. Unfortunately, the offense is looking highly suspect for 2010.
39. (40) Darren McFadden, OAK
Not convinced he will bust out or be a solid producer in his third year.
40. (NR) Ben Tate, HOU
Rookie is going to share the load with Steve Slaton and get the goal line work. Tate could surprise in the Texans powerful offense.
41. (38) Steve Slaton, HOU
Bit of a risk due to his neck injury but will be solid if healthy as a change of pace and receiving option for the Texans.
42. (19) Kevin Smith, DET
Lions didn’t trade up to take Best in the first round to play behind Smith. Once healthy, Smith figures to rotate in and get the goal line work.
43. (25) Jerome Harrison, CLE
Here’s my partial quote from the initial rankings: “the bottom line is that he did nothing for three years and 89 of his 150 fantasy points came in three games against the Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars.” Then the Browns traded up to take Montario Hardesty in the second round.
44. (39) Donald Brown, IND
45. (NR) Montario Hardesty, CLE
Browns general manager Tom Heckert said he views Hardesty as a feature back. Harrison looks more attractive this year as the pass catching option on a bad team but Hardesty will get the goal line work so he’s the better Browns running back in dynasty leagues.
46. (44) Laurence Maroney, NE
47. (41) Tim Hightower, ARI
Interesting that the Cardinals still list him as the starter.
48. (42) Chester Taylor, CHI
Could surprise if he overtakes Forte but I don’t see that happening.
49. (43) Willis McGahee, BAL
50. (53) Leon Washington, SEA
Trade to Seattle revives his fantasy value but hard to count on a pass catching running back coming off a bad leg injury playing in what figures to be a poor offense.
51. (46) Sammy Morris, NE—Yawn.
52. (48) Mike Bell, PHI
53. (NR) Lynell Hamilton, NO
Thomas owners better handcuff him with Hamilton. Hamilton could be solid if Thomas goes down.
54. (49) Correll Buckhalter, DEN
55. (52) Kevin Faulk, NE
56. (51) Derrick Ward, TB
Big flop last year is now stuck behind Williams.
57. (NR) Toby Gerhart, MIN
Must have handcuff for Peterson owners.
58. (32) Justin Forsett, SEA
Likely going to get some playing time early in the season but will be stuck on the bench once Washington is healthy.
59. (55) Jason Snelling, ATL
Surprisingly productive last year, I’d rather have Snelling than Jerious Norwood.
The following players dropped off the rankings from last time:
NR. (37) Arian Foster, HOU
NR. (45) Julius Jones, SEA
NR. (47) Leonard Weaver, PHI
NR. (50) Marshawn Lynch, BUF
NR. (54) Bernard Scott, CIN
NR. (56) Jerious Norwood, ATL
NR. (57) Maurice Morris, DET
NR. (58) Brandon Jackson, GB
NR. (59) Mewelde Moore, PIT
By: Dave Stringer — May 4, 2010 @ 2:50 pm
With the free agency portion of the offseason nearly complete and the NFL rookie draft in the rear view mirror, it’s time to update my 2010 quarterback rankings.
The initial rankings noted the significant number of solid fantasy performances last season and there’s little reason to doubt a repeat in 2010. The biggest developments since my initial rankings, published in early-March, were as follows:
- Ben Roethlisberger’s four to six game suspension,
- Brandon Marshall traded to the Miami Dolphins,
- Donovan McNabb traded to the Washington Redskins,
- Jason Campbell subsequently being traded to the Oakland Raiders,
- St. Louis Rams drafting Sam Bradford, and
- Brett Favre’s recent announcement that he requires ankle surgery.
The only potential major issue to be resolved before training camp is where former Rams quarterback Marc Bulger signs. The Pittsburgh Steelers seemed like a logical destination but they picked up Byron Leftwich from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Teams currently thought to be interested in Bulger include the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals, with the Cardinals an intriguing option given the question marks surrounding Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson.
Each player’s prior ranking is noted in parentheses after the current ranking.
1. (1) Aaron Rodgers, GB
Fantasy football’s top ranked QB from 2009 returns to the top spot for 2010. What propels him to the top of the projections is his rushing ability (304 yards and five TD last year).
2. (4) Drew Brees, NO
Moves from four to two. The Saints failed to take a running back in the draft and lost Mike Bell to the Eagles, so they figure to match their passing production from a year ago.
3. (2) Matt Schaub, HOU
Schaub led the NFL in passing yards last year but moves down a notch due to the drafting of running back Ben Tate and concerns about Owen Daniels production as he returns to full health.
4. (3) Peyton Manning, IND
He’s fourth because he usually gets a game or two off at the end of the season. Otherwise, he’d be my second ranked quarterback.
5. (6) Philip Rivers, SD
The drafting of Ryan Mathews causes Rivers’ projected points to drop but he moves up a notch due to the trade of Donovan McNabb, my original fifth ranked QB, to the Redskins.
6. (9) Tony Romo, DAL
Coming off a top 5 fantasy season and moves up two notches due to the addition of a new toy on offense in rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant.
7. (8) Jay Cutler, CHI
He’s going to have to live with the team’s current crop of wide receivers but the Mike Martz factor propels him to the seven spot.
8. (11) Tom Brady, NE
Brady moves back into the top ten with two others falling and the addition of Torry Holt as a decent veteran to play outside with Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Still, there are issues at tight end with an aging Alge Crumpler and a pair of rookies.
9. (10) Eli Manning, NYG
No fancy additions in the draft but Eli moves up a spot due to McNabb and Roethlisberger moving down (drops behind Brady). Nice upside at wide receiver in Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham and no additions to the depth chart at running back so there’s little reason to think they will run significantly more in 2010.
10. (NR) Kevin Kolb, PHI
Kolb passed for over 300 yards in both games he started last season and benefits from a solid supporting cast. He is a bit of a risk due to his lack of playing time but also possesses major upside and is a great option for dynasty leagues. Kolb will routinely be compared to Aaron Rodgers in his first year as a starter by fantasy pundits leading up to the start of the season.
11. (13) Joe Flacco, BAL
Anquan Boldin was a nice addition and Derrick Mason’s re-signing was icing on the cake but this is still a run first team with an aging Todd Heap at tight end.
12. (12) Brett Favre, MIN
Sixth ranked fantasy quarterback last year but hard to believe he can duplicate his performance coming off ankle surgery and being a year older. There’s a risk factor here that’s hard to ignore.
13. (18) Alex Smith, SF
Moves up courtesy of a pair of first round offensive lineman in Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati. The 49ers’ offense should surprise in 2010 given the young talent on the roster.
14. (5) Donovan McNabb, WAS
McNabb was ranked fifth previously assuming he would benefit from having perhaps the best young group of offensive skill position players in the league in Philadelphia. There is a big drop off in the talent surrounding him in Washington.
15. (17) Matthew Stafford, DET
Nate Burleson adds a nice deep threat opposite Calvin Johnson and the addition of rookie first round pick Jahvid Best reduces the concerns about the running attack as Kevin Smith fights his way back from injury. Tony Scheffler’s acquisition also provides insurance in case Brandon Pettigrew isn’t 100% at the start of the season.
16. (15) Matt Ryan, ATL
The Falcons rely on the run and there were no fancy additions in the draft. Unfortunately for Ryan, he has to rely on Michael Jenkins once again as his second receiver opposite Roddy White.
17. (19) Vince Young, TEN
Played well last year but still has to be considered a boom or bust candidate. Damian Williams was added in the draft but the team figures to rely on an out of shape Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and Justin Gage once again in 2010.
18. (16) David Garrard, JAC
The Jaguars ignored the wide receiver in the draft so Garrard has to hope one of Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard or Tiquan Underwood develops opposite Mike Walker. Not much upside here.
19. (26) Mark Sanchez, NYJ
Sanchez figures to improve on a decent rookie season and benefits from the team’s trade for Santonio Holmes as well as the team’s ability to bring in a veteran running back to replace Thomas Jones.
20. (25) Chad Henne, MIA
Henne moves up five spots courtesy of the Brandon Marshall trade. The Dolphins will run plenty in 2010 but Marshall will open it up for the team’s other wide receivers as well as provide a deep threat and plenty of yards after the catch.
21. (24) Matt Leinart, ARI
Leinart will likely be drafted before he should be. He loses Boldin and the offense figures to run much more this year than they did in 2009.
22. (20) Carson Palmer, CIN
The Bengals are going to run heavily again in 2010 and Palmer will almost certainly be drafted before he should be based on his name recognition and past fantasy achievements.
23. (14) Jason Campbell, OAK
It’s worth noting that the Raiders passing offense was significantly better last year when JaMarcus Russell was on the bench in favour of Bruce Gradkowski or Charlie Frye. Campbell is much better than either of those two. Unfortunately, there’s no number one wide receiver.
24. (23) Josh Freeman, TB
Freeman gains a pair of rookie wide receivers in Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams, so he’s looking decent for 2011. This year, not so much.
25. (7) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
It was a career year for Big Ben in 2009 but he’s facing a four to six game suspension, loses Holmes and the Steelers figure to run more in 2010.
26. (22) Matt Cassel, KC
Unless scatback/slot receiver Dexter McCluster provides a major shot in the arm to the offense, Cassell is destined for fantasy irrelevance. There is little upside here.
27. (27) Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
Hasselbeck is likely keeping the position warm for Charlie Whitehurst.
28. (21) Kyle Orton, DEN
Orton was okay last year but loses Marshall and will likely have to rely on a pair of rookie wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. It will come as no surprise if Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow gets a shot early in 2010.
29. (NR) Sam Bradford, STL
There is no competition in St. Louis but loads of question marks at wide receiver and tight end. There is some upside at receiver but it is difficult to forecast any breakouts in 2010.
30. (29) Matt Moore, CAR
Moore’s prospects got a lot less exciting due to Jimmy Clausen’s presence. Actually, I wasn’t that excited to begin with.
31. (NR) Jake Delhomme, CLE
He’s been horrible for the last season and a half and the Browns depth chart at wide receiver is absolutely scary.
32. (31) Trent Edwards, BUF
Two people in NFL management circles think Edwards is a starting caliber quarterback and they happen to the Bills head coach and general manager. Edwards wins the lottery on that one but he won’t win any fantasy games for you, that’s for sure.
33. (NR) Charlie Whitehurst, SEA
Whitehurst is probably the only player likely to enter the season as a backup but almost certainly guaranteed to be starting by midseason.
The following players dropped off the rankings from last time:
NR. (28) Brady Quinn, DEN
NR. (30) Marc Bulger, FA
NR. (32) Bruce Gradkowski, OAK
NR. (33) JaMarcus Russell, OAK
NR. (34) Seneca Wallace, CLE
NR. (35) A.J. Feeley, STL
By: Dave Stringer — April 28, 2010 @ 10:11 am
The NFL rookie draft generally produces a few solid fantasy performers each year but it also has a big impact on veteran players. Dynasty league keepers can lose their value in a hurry if the draft is used to bring competition in at their position.
This year, there were some major surprises in the draft with some teams ignoring major needs and others loading up on certain positions unexpectedly. The Bills chose to ignore the quarterback position while the 49ers loaded up along the offensive line which has to make Frank Gore owners a happy bunch.
There’s one team that is heavily represented here and if you guessed it’s because their general manager ignored his team’s obvious needs, you hit the nail on the head.
Winners
Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco—Not only did the 49ers address the right tackle position with the addition of Anthony Davis, they went one step further and added guard Mike Iupati. Gore’s fantasy prognosis was looking good but now it’s looking even better. Put him down as your fifth rated running back.
Jason Campbell, QB, Oakland—Campbell was going to sit behind Donovan McNabb in Washington and his trade to the Raiders will likely result in him starting in Oakland with JaMarcus Russell likely being released, possibly this week.
While all Raiders offensive players are justifiably viewed with scepticism by fantasy footballers, it’s worth noting that Bruce Gradkowski averaged 21.5 points per game during the three starts that he played the entire game and Charlie Frye had a nice game and a half run before inexplicably getting yanked at halftime of the Ravens game during Week 17. Just saying it’s worth filing away. Campbell could surprise.
Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo—Edwards lucks out with Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey being the only two people on the face of the earth not agreeing that the Bills need an upgrade at quarterback. Unless, of course, a seventh round pick can be expected to contribute right away. Remarkable.
Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans—The Saints never got around to taking a running back like many had thought they would so Thomas is entrenched as the starter with Lynell Hamilton likely spelling him and maybe getting some of the goal-line work.
LenDale White, RB, Seattle—Rather than fight for scraps behind Chris Johnson, White gets reunited with his former college coach Pete Carroll with the Seahawks. He will likely get the early down and goal line work with Justin Forsett handling the receiving role until Leon Washington is healthy.
Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh—The Steelers waited until the third round to take a wide receiver, settling on Emmanuel Sanders who doesn’t have the size to play outside. Translation—Wallace doesn’t have any competition for his starting spot.
David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville—We keep hearing about how Garrard’s not good enough to win with, but the Jaguars would rather draft defensive tackles that most people haven’t heard of. To each their own.
Michael Jenkins, WR, Atlanta—Jenkins hasn’t done much of anything and yet the Falcons never seem too interested in replacing him. Fifth round pick Kerry Meier is a possession receiver who is likely better suited to backup duty.
Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie, WR, Cleveland—Massaquoi was decent last year while Robiskie was a disaster. However, the Browns failed to acquire any veterans through free agency and then waited until the sixth round to take Carlton Mitchell from South Florida. Of course, they still have Jake Delhomme chucking it in 2010 so even though Massaquoi and Robiskie are “winners” for this article, all Browns receivers should be avoided.
James Hardy and Steve Johnson, WR, Buffalo—Despite the fact these two players have combined for 22 receptions, 208 yards and four touchdowns in two years, the Bills didn’t draft a wide receiver until the fourth round when they took Marcus Easley. Of course, they still have Trent Edwards chucking it in 2010 so all Bills receivers except Lee Evans should be avoided. The Bills-Browns don’t entirely understand the whole NFL is a copycat league concept.
Losers
Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo—Gailey to Nix: “Let’s check out the offensive depth chart. No quarterback, no left tackle, no second receiver, a veteran retread at right tackle and two solid running backs in Jackson and Marshawn Lynch.” Nix: “Okay, let’s draft C.J. Spiller.” The wheels on the bus go round and round, all the live long day…
Roy Williams, WR, Dallas—The Cowboys give up a first, a third and a sixth to get Williams and then draft Dez Bryant in the first round. So, their number two wide receiver will end up costing two firsts, a third and a sixth. Sound decision-making. Unless Williams is traded, he isn’t worth owning long-term in fantasy leagues.
Steve Slaton, RB, Houston—The Texans were expected to take a running back in the draft but Slaton owners were hoping it was a lower round selection without the pedigree of Ben Tate. No such luck.
Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit—With Smith coming off a late season torn ACL and the Lions not enamored with his big play ability, the pre-draft line was that they would look to acquire a scatback in the mid-rounds. Unfortunately for Smith, they decided to trade into the back end of the first round in order to select Jahvid Best, who would have been taken much higher if he didn’t have injury concerns.
Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland—I was never sold on Harrison and the Browns weren’t either, hence the trade up in the second round to acquire Montario Hardesty. Let others take the veteran in your fantasy drafts while you use a late round pick on Hardesty.
Matt Moore, QB, Carolina—The Panthers told anybody who would listen they were comfortable with Moore as their starter. Then they went out and drafted not one, but two quarterbacks in the draft adding Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike.
Julius Jones, RB, Seattle—With LenDale White and Leon Washington joining the depth chart and Justin Forsett earning a minimum salary, there’s no reason for the Seahawks to keep Jones and his bloated contract on the roster.
Darren Sproles, RB, San Diego—Sure, he’s a loser with the addition of Ryan Mathews but the addition of a running back in the draft came as no surprise.
Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley, WR, Denver—Demaryius Williams and Eric Decker were added in the draft and head coach Josh McDaniels has said Eddie Royal will have an increased role in 2010. One of these guys is likely to be cut with the other relegated to keeping a seat warm for the younger guys.
By: Dave Stringer — April 26, 2010 @ 2:20 pm
The NFL Draft is over and it’s time to turn our fantasy football focus to the impact the rookies will have in 2010 and beyond. With dynasty leagues growing in popularity, several leagues have rookie-only drafts.
Let’s mock it up with a three round, 10 team version. In general, rookies don’t have a huge impact in fantasy leagues in their first year, and even considering that, this is a lacklustre rookie draft from a fantasy perspective.
Most of the running backs will enter committees and the wide receivers are raw, have personal issues or are entering bad situations. There are no stud tight ends and the only quarterback guaranteed to start will do so for the St. Louis Rams, the worst team in the league.
Add it all up, and it might be worth moving your picks for veteran fantasy help, other than if you own the first pick, that is.
A future article will focus on veteran winners and losers from the NFL Draft, including Fred Jackson and Roy Williams.
Round 1
1. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers—Mathews will start on opening day in the Chargers high powered offense and Darren Sproles will serve as the pass catching, change of pace option. Look for 15-20 touches a game, giving Mathews RB2 status with upside.
2. C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo—Topped 200 touches only once in college and Fred Jackson isn’t chopped liver so expect RBBC in Buffalo. He’s going to need touchdowns to hit RB2 status but that’s wishful thinking with Trent Edwards at quarterback. He’s a backup, but admittedly with upside, in 2010.
3. Ben Tate, Houston— Texans get their running back to compliment Steve Slaton but perhaps not to supplant him. The Texans’ offense is loaded and he will be the goal line back. That’s why he’s here.
4. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit—Either Kevin Smith isn’t ready on opening day or he struggles from his injury recovery so Best will get opportunities early. Unfortunately, Smith is a starting calibre back best suited to early down work and Best seems to fit best as the third down guy.
5. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas—Has a chance to supplant Roy Williams this year and, barring any issues, will almost certainly be starting in 2011. Huge upside in a solid Cowboys offense.
6. Montario Hardesty, Cleveland—Jerome Harrison did nothing for three years and then put up 150 fantasy points last year with 89 coming in three games against the Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars. Hardesty’s going to challenge and nobody should be surprised he beats out Harrison.
7. Golden Tate, WR, Seattle—Great situation for Tate with T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch aging and Seattle in rebuilding mode. Tate could be starting on opening day.
8. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver—He’s going to start but might be catching passes from Tim Tebow by midseason and in future years. Sorry—I’m not that excited.
9. Rolando McClain, ILB, Oakland—Tackle machine and the top IDP player in the draft. Road to the starting line-up was cleared with the trade of Kirk Morrison to the Jaguars. Doesn’t have Patrick Willis potential in IDP leagues but he isn’t far off.
10. Arrelious Benn, WR, Tampa Bay—With Josh Freeman entering his second year, Benn won’t be a starting calibre fantasy starter this year but has upside in 2011.
Round 2
1. Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis—Don’t expect much in 2010 but he’s the only quarterback in the draft likely to start next year. The Rams’ receivers offer potential but remain raw.
2. Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings—Tough to slot him in. If Adrian Peterson gets hurt, he’s gold. Otherwise, he’s 4-6 touches a game at most. It’s like the lottery—at $2 a ticket, I’m in. At $10, forget about it. This spot seems about right.
3. James Starks, RB, Green Bay—Measures and collegiate production don’t jump out at you but Ryan Grant’s backups to date have been a bust and it’s not likely Grant is overly talented himself. Plus, the Packers offense is great which makes Starks worth the gamble.
4. Brandon LaFell, WR, Carolina—Steve Smith isn’t getting any younger and Dwayne Jarrett isn’t getting any better.
5. Daryl Washington, ILB, Arizona—Cardinals take Washington to replace Dansby and he will likely start from day one. He could be a tackle machine in the Cardinals defensive scheme.
6. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati—A solid prospect who might catch enough touchdowns to be fantasy useful in 2010.
7. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Pittsburgh—Won’t likely get to play much but does figure to start ahead of Mewelde Moore if Rashard Mendenhall gets hurt.
8. Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay—It might seem odd to have two Buccaneers rookie wide receivers in this mock but it’s not like any of the current crop of veterans are sure fire starters. Opportunity trumps character concerns at this point.
9. Marcus Easley, WR, Buffalo—Huge hole opposite Lee Evans with only the disappointing James Hardy and former seventh round pick Steve Johnson to compete with Easley. He has solid size which is what the Bills want opposite Evans.
10. Eric Decker, WR, Denver—Let’s see, Josh McDaniels clearly likes his own guys. Eddie Royal isn’t one of them and he was a bust last season. Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley aren’t the long-term answers so Decker will get a shot at some point and don’t be surprised if it’s this year.
Round 3
1. Jordan Shipley, WR, Cincinnati—Chad Ochocinco isn’t getting any younger, Antonio Bryant and Matt Jones aren’t getting any smarter, Andre Caldwell’s best suited as a backup and Jerome Simpson will be starting his second career soon. Shipley’s got an opportunity, just not this year.
2. Damian Williams, WR, Tennessee—Kenny Britt is locked in at one starting position but Justin Gage and Nate Washington have been marginally disappointing for the Titans.
3. James Graham, TE, New Orleans—Jeremy Shockey is injury prone and David Thomas has played well but has limited upside. Graham’s opportunity could come sooner than many think.
4. Eric Berry, S, Kansas City—Safeties excel in IDP leagues when there’s pass rush help, which the Chiefs lack. However, if Berry is as good as advertised, he’s worth a shot here.
5. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Carolina—Matt Moore’s the incumbent. Do I need to go on?
6. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England—Alge Crumpler’s the starter but Gronkowski could take over by midseason.
7. Kareem Jackson, CB, Houston—Expect him to get picked on plenty which should provide opportunities for tackles, passes defensed and maybe the odd interception.
8. Colt McCoy, QB, Cleveland—Slotted behind Clausen since the Panthers have a solid running game and Steve Smith. The Browns’ offensive line is above average but the receivers and running backs don’t match up to Carolina’s.
9. Andre Roberts, WR, Arizona—Likely will be used in the slot. If Early Doucet’s late season play was a mirage, Roberts could get a shot earlier than expected.
10. Joe Haden, CB, Cleveland—Rookie cornerbacks get picked on plenty but Haden may be the Browns best corner on opening day. Nonetheless, expect him to rack up solid numbers in IDP leagues.
By: Dave Stringer — April 23, 2010 @ 12:51 am
Let’s take a look at how the first round of the NFL draft impacts fantasy leagues in 2010.
1. Sam Bradford, QB St. Louis—With A.J. Feeley and Craig Null at quarterback, there is little doubt Bradford will start on opening day. With the team’s current crop of receivers, there is little doubt Bradford will be a fantasy bust in 2010.
2. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit—Suh will improve the Lions defense and help recently signed Kyle Vanden Bosch in the sack department. However, it’s doubtful he will be useful in IDP leagues or vault the Lions defense into the top 15.
3. Gerald McCoy, DT, Tampa Bay—Ditto for McCoy in Tampa.
4. Trent Williams, Washington—The Redskins get their left tackle for the next 10-12 years. Unfortunately, there are major question marks along the offensive line and at running back and wide receiver. He helps, but Donovan McNabb likely remains the only Redskin to own from a fantasy perspective.
5. Eric Berry, S, Kansas City—Big time playmaker immediately improves the Chiefs defense but they aren’t worth targeting in fantasy leagues. Berry is, however, a great candidate in IDP leagues.
6. Russell Okung, OT, Seattle—Seahawks have to be ecstatic to get Okung. He immediately improves the outlook for Julius Jones, Justin Forsett and whoever they add at the position in the draft.
7. Joe Haden, CB, Cleveland—Rookie corners are targeted early and often, making them great IDP candidates. Browns D could surprise in 2010 if Shaun Rogers can stay out of trouble.
8. Rolando McClain, ILB, Oakland—Top linebacker in the draft goes to the Raiders and will either accompany Kirk Morrison in a 3-4 alignment or supplant him in the 4-3. Top IDP rookie in the draft and in Oakland, where he’ll be on the field a lot trying to stop the run, he could be a top ten LB.
9. C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo—Just about anywhere else, Spiller had a shot to be the top player taken in fantasy rookie drafts. Considering the anaemic offense Spiller has to work with, he will likely to slot in as the second rookie taken.
10. Tyson Aluala, DT, Jacksonville—Bit of a shocker with John Henderson and Terrence Knighton on the roster, this pick does nothing for the Jaguars defense in fantasy leagues.
11. Anthony Davis, OT, San Francisco—Davis solidifies the right tackle position for the 49ers and makes the team’s young offensive playmakers all that more attractive, provided Alex Smith is solid at quarterback, of course.
12. Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego—Meet the top pick in rookie fantasy drafts in 2010. Playing in the Chargers high-powered offense, Mathews is a solid RB2 candidate with upside in redraft leagues.
13. Brandon Graham, DE, Philadelphia—Eagles add to a deep defensive line rotation which likely makes Graham little use in IDP leagues. His presence should result in more fantasy points for the Eagles D, however.
14. Earl Thomas, S, Seattle—Solid pick to revamp a secondary that got burned repeatedly in 2009. Thomas figures to be a great player but with the weak pass rush in Seattle, he isn’t a great candidate in IDP leagues.
15. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, New York Giants—Pierre-Paul seems to be the consensus boom or bust pick in the draft. Unless Osi Umenyiora is moved, he isn’t useful in IDP leagues but should add to the Giants sack totals in 2010.
16. Derrick Morgan, DE, Tennessee—Morgan figures to replace Vanden Bosch but net result is fewer sacks for the Titans next year.
17. Mike Iupati, OG, San Francisco—49ers are apparently doing everything in their power to help the O in 2010. This could be a solid overall offense for fantasy, especially with six games against the Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals.
18. Maurkice Pouncey, C, Pittsburgh—Pouncey will replace Justin Hartwig and solidify the Steelers offensive line. His presence improves the prospects of Rashard Mendenhall next year.
19. Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Atlanta—Mike Peterson put up solid numbers playing on the outside last year and Weatherspoon figures to be even better.
20. Kareem Jackson, CB, Houston—Plenty of cornerbacks in Houston, all of them suspect so Jackson will likely start from day one and get picked on plenty. Target him in IDP leagues.
21. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati—Gresham improves the offense but it’s hard to imagine him being anything more than a backup TE in fantasy leagues.
22. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver—Broncos move way back and then surprisingly make Thomas the first wide receiver off the board. If Dez Bryant pans out, the Broncos will look silly for years to come. Thomas, however, does have decent fantasy prospects, especially in dynasty leagues.
23. Bryan Bulaga, OT, Green Bay—Bulaga sinks like a stone to the Packers disbelief. Great pick for the Packers. Bulaga should improve the running game in 2010.
24. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas—Cowboys get their man and it’s anybody’s guess what’s next for Roy Williams. Bryant doesn’t figure to do much if Williams is around but he’s a great player for dynasty leagues.
25. Tim Tebow, QB, Denver—Check back in a few years to see how this pans out. From a fantasy perspective, the name recognition alone is enough to almost guarantee he’ll be drafted too high, especially considering the uncertainty about what role he will play in the offense out of the gate.
26. Dan Williams, DT, Arizona—Great pick for the Cardinals but their D has likely lost too much to be fantasy relevant in 2010.
27. Devin McCourty, CB, New England—Somehow I don’t see a rookie cornerback playing a big role in the Patriots secondary. Just a hunch.
28. Jared Odrick, DT, Miami—Dolphins add to their defense, as expected, and Odrick will likely move to defensive end. In the Dolphins scheme, he isn’t worth owning in IDP leagues.
29. Kyle Wilson, CB, New York Jets—With Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie on the scene, Wilson won’t have much opportunity. Avoid him in IDP leagues unless Revis or Cromartie gets hurt.
30. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit—Best figures to have a solid chance to supplant Kevin Smith, with Smith recovering from a torn ACL. However, there are questions about his durability so this could be a RBBC in 2010 and perhaps for years to come.
31. Jerry Hughes, OLB, Indianapolis—Figures to start from day one but don’t expect much from him in IDP leagues in 2010.
32. Patrick Robinson, CB, New Orleans—Saints end the first round by adding to their depth at cornerback. Robinson won’t start in 2010 and may not for a few years.
By: Dave Stringer — April 21, 2010 @ 11:22 pm
The NFL announced that Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will receive a six game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.
The suspension comes as a result of Roethlisberger being involved in two separate police investigations alleging sexual assaults within a nine month period. The league ordered Roethlisberger to undergo a comprehensive behavioural evaluation and the outcome of that evaluation as well as his conduct prior to the season will determine whether to reduce the suspension to four games.
The suspension is a huge blow to a Steelers team that was expected to compete with the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. Without Roethlisberger available for at least four games, a Steelers squad that came within a game of a playoff berth in 2009 faces tougher odds of qualifying for a 2010 post-season berth.
In addition, reports indicate that the Steelers are willing to listen to trade offers for Roethlisberger provided they receive a top ten pick in the upcoming rookie draft. Of the teams that possess those picks, only the Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars might consider pursuing a trade with the Steelers. The Cleveland Browns would likely have interest but a trade between the AFC North foes is a remote possibility.
Fantasy Impact
Roethlisberger is coming off his best season as a pro and finished as the eighth-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2009. The Steelers moved to a more pass-based offense last year with three solid wide receivers in Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and second year speedster Mike Wallace.
However, Holmes was traded to the Jets and the team is expected to move to more of ground based attack in 2010.
Nonetheless, his fantasy prospects for 2010 were still solid but are now clearly diminished with the suspension. Assuming a four game suspension, drafting Roethlisberger becomes costly considering he offers zero in return to start the season, and risky unless you plan on having three quarterbacks on your roster during the suspension.
The biggest winner from a fantasy perspective is running back Rashard Mendenhall, who figures to see an increased workload early in the season. He moves up a few spots and into the top ten at running back, ranked ninth.
The biggest fantasy loser from the suspension is obviously Roethlisberger but Ward, Wallace and tight end Heath Miller also move down in the rankings with backup quarterback Dennis Dixon the likely replacement.
Dixon doesn’t have Roethlisberger’s accuracy or touch on deep balls. Expect teams to play the Steelers wide receivers tight on short and intermediate routes, at least until Dixon proves capable of hitting his wideouts deep.
Wallace was considered a breakout candidate and still should be but he moves to WR4 status given his bread and butter is big plays. Ward isn’t expected to see much of a drop but fantasy owners should be leery of drafting him as a WR2. With concerns about his age and now the quarterback play for at least four games, he looks much more attractive as a WR3.
Miller is coming off a career year in which he finished with 789 yards and six touchdowns, good enough to be the ninth ranked fantasy tight end. He moves from being a borderline starter to a solid backup for fantasy purposes.
By: Dave Stringer — April 20, 2010 @ 10:06 am
After posting my initial wide receiver rankings for the 2010 fantasy football season, there was a lot of feedback from fellow owners in my fantasy leagues that Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald was ranked far too low at 11th.
Subsequently, my one-man mock draft came out and it had Fitzgerald being selected with the 12th pick in the third round. Since it was only a three round mock, he was the last player chosen.
More negative feedback followed although some of it did admit that at least my reasoning made a little sense, a backhanded compliment to be sure.
Let’s examine the case that was made for moving Fitzgerald down the wide receiver rankings.
The wide receiver ranking article commented that:
Talent wise, he is definitely higher. Rankings wise, you have to move him down based on the departures of Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin.
The mock draft article commented that:
He’s a bargain at this spot but hard to move up given the doubts about Matt Leinart’s ability to produce at quarterback. [Fitz] had the 15th most receiving yards in the league in 2009 but was the fourth ranked fantasy wide receiver courtesy of his 13 touchdowns.
Here are Fitzgerald’s statistics over the last three years with Warner largely at the helm of a potent Cardinals offense:
| Larry Fitzgerald |
| |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
| Season |
Team |
G |
GS |
Target |
Rec |
Yard |
Avg |
TD |
FPts |
FPts/G |
| 2007 |
ARI |
15 |
14 |
167 |
101 |
1,412 |
14.0 |
10 |
201.2 |
13.4 |
| 2008 |
ARI |
16 |
16 |
154 |
96 |
1,434 |
14.9 |
12 |
215.4 |
13.5 |
| 2009 |
ARI |
16 |
16 |
153 |
97 |
1,092 |
11.3 |
13 |
187.2 |
11.7 |
In examining Fitzgerald’s performance in 2009, it’s clear that his fantasy production was largely based on the number of touchdowns he scored. His average yards per reception suffered because defenses played a lot of cover two against the Cardinals. Opponents feared the team’s passing attack, not its ability to run the ball.
Looking forward to 2010, with Boldin now in Baltimore, defenses will likely commit more to stopping the running back tandem of the emerging Chris Wells and Tim Hightower. However, with Steve Breaston not worthy of as much attention as Boldin, Fitzgerald will likely be double covered on almost every play.
Talented wide receivers are able to beat coverage but it is more difficult for them to get open and they need an accurate passer to get them the ball. With Warner at the controls, Fitzgerald had an accurate passer, but Leinart has not yet proven able to match Warner’s accuracy and is unlikely to develop to that level in 2010.
In his four years in the league, Leinart compiled a completion rate of 57.1%. Last year, in 77 attempts, he completed 66.2% of his passes but his yards per attempt was a lowly 5.6, indicating that he was throwing a high number of short and intermediate passes.
Warner’s career completion percentage was 65.7% and his yards per attempt was 7.8.
Although some fantasy enthusiasts may have taken solace in Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt recently proclaiming that Leinart was the team’s starting quarterback, it’s worth noting that a week prior to this proclamation he had remarked that Leinart would be anointed the starter once he goes to three Pro Bowls and wins the Super Bowl.
More likely than not, Whisenhunt was sending a statement to Leinart, the recently signed Derek Anderson and the team about the anticipated depth chart. Still, the earlier comment by the head coach does give us a lot of confidence in Leinart as the projected starter.
Over the last three years, the Cardinals offense scored 41, 45 and 43 touchdowns. With Leinart at the controls, it’s easy to predict that the Cardinals will score less. With the team now likely to shift to more of a ground based attack, it’s also easy to predict that a higher percentage of their offensive touchdowns will come on the ground.
Fantasy football success is based on drafting for value and the value equation includes a risk component. With Warner at the controls leading a passing based attack, Fitzgerald was a high reward, low risk option.
With Leinart at the controls of a more ground based attack, Fitzgerald will still produce but his upside is less and he is a far riskier option in 2010. For that reason, he’s currently my 11th ranked wide receiver for fantasy purposes, behind receivers with much more established quarterbacks, such as Greg Jennings (ranked 9th) and Marques Colston (10th).
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