|
Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
|
 By: Dave Stringer — March 24, 2010 @ 10:16 am
As expected, the New Orleans Saints will not match the offer sheet that restricted free agent running back Mike Bell signed with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Saints won’t receive any draft pick compensation because Bell was an undrafted player who the Saints tendered at the lowest level.
Reports indicate the offer sheet was a one year contract for $1.7 million with $500,000 guaranteed and also included modest incentives as well as a no-trade clause. With a solid one-two punch of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush and a desire to increase the role of third year power back Lynell Hamilton, the Saints decided against retaining Bell.
Bell is coming off a solid year in which he ran for 654 yards and five touchdowns in 13 games last season. He had success as a rookie in 2006 with Denver but bounced around the league in 2007 and 2008 before resurrecting his career in 2009.
In Philadelphia, Bell will provide another veteran presence behind LeSean McCoy and allow Leonard Weaver to concentrate on the fullback position. His acquisition reduces the likelihood of the team taking a running back in the rookie draft this year.
Fantasy Impact
The biggest winner with Bell moving to Philadelphia is Pierre Thomas. With Bell off the roster, the short yardage and goal-line work will fall to either Thomas or Hamilton. Hamilton lacks Bell’s experience so there is now a greater likelihood of Thomas getting increased touches at the goal-line.
Thomas moves up to 15th in my running back rankings with an increased likelihood of a breakout season.
Hamilton assumes Bell’s role in the offense but is unlikely to match Bell’s production from a year ago. Look for approximately 450 yards and 4-5 touchdowns from him.
In Philadelphia, Bell’s signing negatively impacts fullback and backup running back Leonard Weaver more than McCoy. Weaver figures to be relegated almost exclusively to fullback duties with Bell taking over in short yardage situations. Barring injury, Weaver is not worth owning except in leagues with deep rosters.
Bell is a proven short-yardage runner and figures to amass 500-600 yards and 5-6 touchdowns as part of a potent Eagles offense. The move is slightly negative for Bell from a fantasy perspective since he was expected to achieve similar production in New Orleans as he had last year.
The Saints run the ball far more frequently and effectively than the Eagles. While Bell’s touchdown production won’t suffer in Philadelphia, there is a risk that he won’t see enough carries to match his yardage total from 2009.
By: Dave Stringer — March 23, 2010 @ 10:17 am
The unrestricted free agent market is slowing down due to a number of early signings and lack of quality free agents available courtesy of 2010 being an uncapped year.
Much like the NFL, fantasy football has leagues that run all year due to the expanding number of dynasty leagues that employ keepers, salary caps and various free agent tags, not to mention rookie drafts.
With fantasy football becoming a year-round pursuit for many, lets fill the time with something useful during this down period, before we ratchet things up for the next big event on the NFL calendar, the NFL Draft.
Well, as I always say, there is never a wrong time to do a mock draft to think about when players will be drafted if we started a brand new league, today.
This mock is a one-man show based on statistical projections for the 2010 season, and assumes all players are going to play 16 games and be solid citizens from now until the end of the year.
Concerns about Brandon Marshall? Forget about it. Vincent Jackson might get suspended? For what? Let’s agree to ignore all that, at least for the next ten minutes.
Plus, this mock draft does not consider the incoming rookie crop or some veteran free agents who are bound to end up as handcuffs to players in this draft and negatively impact their touches.
Keep your eye out for where Brian Westbrook and Willie Parker eventually sign. Plus, a couple of players will likely drop in value once the rookie draft is complete such as Kevin Smith of the Detroit Lions.
Round 1
1.01 (1) Adrian Peterson, MIN—He’s my top ranked running back at the moment.
1.02 (2) Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC—Touchdown machine who put concerns about his durability to rest after his first year as a starter in 2009.
1.03 (3) Chris Johnson, TEN—Fantasy’s biggest breakout star last year will try to duplicate his 2009 performance. He’ll be great in 2010, just not as great.
1.04 (4) Ray Rice, BAL—Others may think the addition of Anquan Boldin will reduce his numbers. Boldin’s presence will just make Rice more dangerous.
1.05 (5) Frank Gore, SF—Plenty of talented, young skill position players in San Francisco will help Gore’s touchdown totals.
1.06 (6) Steven Jackson, STL—He’s a beast but a bit of a risk due to the low number of touchdowns and injury issues. Downside risk if they take a quarterback in Round 1 of the draft.
1.07 (7) Michael Turner, ATL—Lack of receiving ability drops him down but he’s good for almost a score a game.
1.08 (8) Aaron Rodgers, GB—First quarterback off the board. There’s no reason why he can’t duplicate his 2009 performance.
1.09 (9) DeAngelo Williams, CAR—If he can stay healthy, he could get back in the top five like he was in 2008.
1.10 (10) Andre Johnson, HOU—Topped 1,500 yards and eight touchdowns in each of the last two years.
1.11 (11) Ryan Grant, GB—Fantasy’s most underrated running back. I’m not sure why fantasy owners aren’t more interested in a RB who starts on one of the most explosive offenses in the league.
1.12 (12) Matt Schaub, HOU—Threw for more yards than any other quarterback last year. Bit of an injury risk but guaranteed to be in the top five if he stays healthy for 16 games.
Round 2
2.01 (13) Knowshon Moreno, DEN—All he needs to breakout is more touches. Look for him to get those touches in 2010.
2.02 (14) Chris Wells, ARI—Same story for Wells plus the Cardinals figure to run more with the loss of quarterback Kurt Warner and Boldin.
2.03 (15) Randy Moss, NE—With Welker hurt and no proven third wide receiver or starting tight end, Moss figures to get plenty of looks in 2010.
2.04 (16) Peyton Manning, IND—Top five lock once again but a risk considering he’s often rested for at least part of the fantasy playoffs.
2.05 (17) Jonathan Stewart, CAR—Matt Moore isn’t that much better than Jake Delhomme to change this team’s identity. There will be a healthy dose of running in Carolina once again in 2010.
2.06 (18) Drew Brees, NO—Before you get your knickers in a knot, note that five quarterbacks threw for more yards than Brees in 2009.
2.07 (19) Roddy White, ATL—Matt Ryan should only get better and White figures to reap the benefits with Tony Gonzalez a year older and a lack of playmakers amongst the team’s other wide receivers.
2.08 (20) Cedric Benson, CIN—The Bengals now feature the running game and Benson is one of the few workhorses in the league.
2.09 (21) Rashard Mendenhall, PIT—Mendenhall came on strong last season but it remains to be seen whether the Steelers will revert back to a more ground based attack after a pass heavy 2009 season.
2.10 (22) Miles Austin, DAL—Dynamic playmaker usurped Roy Williams as the Cowboys top wide receiver. Expect big production in 2010.
2.11 (23) Brandon Marshall, DEN—Catches 100 balls every year even with the suspensions.
2.12 (24) DeSean Jackson, PHI—Expect Jackson to make plenty of big plays again in 2010.
Round 3
3.01 (25) Donovan McNabb, PHI—Eagles young skill position players only figure to get better and the offensive line should bounce back after underperforming in 2009.
3.02 (26) Fred Jackson, BUF—Jackson figures to relegate Marshawn Lynch to the bench and perhaps off the roster in 2010. If Lynch goes, Jackson will be in line for major touches.
3.03 (27) Pierre Thomas, NO—Thomas was solid in 2009 and could get increased work if Mike Bell doesn’t return. Big upside on a strong Saints offense.
3.04 (28) Vincent Jackson, SD—Facing a league suspension but has gotten better every year, and the Chargers could lean more on the pass this year.
3.05 (29) Calvin Johnson, DET—Expect a bounce back season with Matthew Stafford entering his second year.
3.06 (30) Shonn Greene, NYJ—Greene was pegged at least a round higher before the LaDainian Tomlinson signing. Greene will still be solid enough for a mid-third round pick. Leon Washington was likely going to get the third down work anyway.
3.07 (31) Matt Forte, CHI—Chester Taylor’s a good back but he’s a similar player to Forte. If Taylor gets the goal line work, Forte will suffer slightly. However, Forte’s a solid receiving threat out of the backfield and should benefit in that area with Mike Martz running the show.
3.08 (32) Greg Jennings, GB—Scored only four touchdowns in 2009 but that should improve in 2010. Jennings was a touchdown machine in 2007 and 2008 with 21 over those two seasons.
3.09 (33) Marques Colston, NO—Top receiving threat on a great offense that unfortunately spreads it around a lot.
3.10 (34) Kevin Smith, DET—Bit of an injury risk. However, I’m not as sold as other prognosticators on the Lions taking an impact running back early in the draft.
3.11 (35) Philip Rivers, SD—His passing yards have gone up every year and that shouldn’t change in 2010 with no clear starter at the running back position.
3.12 (36) Larry Fitzgerald, ARI—He’s a bargain at this spot but hard to move up given the doubts about Matt Leinart’s ability to produce at quarterback. Had the 15th most receiving yards in the league in 2009 but was the fourth ranked fantasy wide receiver courtesy of his 13 touchdowns.
By: Dave Stringer — March 19, 2010 @ 1:12 pm
With the NFL free agent market cooling off until the restricted free agent market heats up, the number of important unrestricted free agent signings has slowed to a trickle. However, teams continue to fill their personnel needs for the 2010 season with more modest acquisitions through free agency and trades.
That the free agent market has included so few key signings comes as no surprise given teams’ increased propensity to retain their own free agents over the last few years, and the breakdown of labour negotiations which resulted in 2010 being an uncapped year. The latter point severely reduced the number of unrestricted free agents on the market due to players now requiring six years of experience before qualifying for unrestricted status.
Despite that, there were a number of interesting moves this week that will have fantasy implications for the 2010 season. Some of the players that changed teams this week could provide surprise fantasy value.
Charlie Whitehurst Traded to Seattle
This one qualifies as the most intriguing transaction of the week with the Seattle Seahawks swapping 2nd round picks in this year’s rookie draft and also giving up a 3rd round pick in 2011 to San Diego to acquire Charlie Whitehurst.
The ‘Hawks drop 20 spots in the 2nd round and also have reportedly agreed to a contract extension for Whitehurst that pays him $5 million per season.
Teams don’t pay backups $5 million a season unless they are all but guaranteed to become starters. With Seattle in a rebuilding mode under new head coach Pete Carroll and an injury-prone Matt Hasselbeck hitting 35 early in the season, there’s little doubt Whitehurst will be behind center at some point in 2010 barring a Seattle early season resurgence.
Whitehurst is an unknown commodity, not having thrown a regular season pass during his four years in the league. With the team’s offense expected to struggle and being led by an aging Hasselbeck or the inexperienced Whitehurst, you should downgrade the team’s wide receivers and tight end John Carlson. They carry significant fantasy risk with little upside given the quarterback situation.
Is Whitehurst a sleeper in Seattle? Not in 2010 and maybe not in dynasty leagues given the team’s aging starting wide receivers T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch.
Delhomme to Start in Cleveland
If the Whitehurst situation was intriguing, this one is the head scratcher of the week. Cleveland trades a former 1st round pick in Brady Quinn, who never really had much of a chance to succeed, for a fullback, a 2011 6th round pick and a conditional pick in 2012. They also dumped former Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Anderson.
They did this all for the chance to install Delhomme as the team’s starting quarterback on a 2 year deal for a reported $7 million a season. This for a player who has over his last 12 games, thrown for 2,220 yards, nine touchdowns and 23 interceptions while completing less than 55% of his passes.
As with the Seattle wide receivers, avoid Cleveland’s wideouts and tight ends in 2010. In fact, the only useful offensive fantasy player on the roster is running back Jerome Harrison.
Quinn Traded to the Broncos
The Broncos gave up little to acquire Quinn and he will enter training camp with a chance to unseat Kyle Orton as the team’s starting quarterback in 2011. While Quinn has been dismal as a pro, there should be little argument with the notion that he had little to work with in Cleveland, particularly in 2009.
Of course, the other side of the argument is that there’s nothing to suggest that he’s bound for success in Denver in 2010 or even that he’ll push Orton to the bench. However, head coach Josh McDaniels may have seen enough from Orton to know that after five years in the league he’s not about to relinquish his role as a game manager.
Here’s betting that McDaniels gives Quinn every opportunity to win the job and that he does. Quinn’s motivation has never been questioned and it’s possible that the better supporting cast that resides in Denver will propel him from the fantasy backwaters to being a useful fantasy backup quarterback.
Orton was the 16th ranked quarterback in 2009, the team has talented young playmakers on offense and a solid, young offensive line so if Brandon Marshall returns, whoever wins the starting job could provide some upside to your fantasy squad next year.
Derek Anderson Signs with Arizona
Jettisoned by the Browns, Anderson quickly found a home with the Arizona Cardinals. The former Pro Bowl quarterback figures to play behind Matt Leinart, but there are mixed signals coming from the team’s coaching staff regarding where Anderson fits in.
A week ago Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt noted that Leinart would be the team’s anointed starter after he goes to three Pro Bowls and wins a Super Bowl. Then after Anderson signed, Whisenhunt claimed that Leinart was the starter.
However, Anderson’s deal is significant for a backup and reports indicate that it includes $7.25 million over two years with the chance to earn up to $18 million. While Leinart may be the starter heading into camp, Anderson’s deal suggests that the team certainly felt they needed competition for Leinart.
That should come as no surprise given his history off the field as well as his performance on it over the last few years.
Nonetheless, Leinart figures to win the job out of training camp and his fantasy situation is solid given the team’s cast of offensive skill position players, even with the departure of wide receiver Anquan Boldin to the Ravens.
However, while his fantasy situation is solid, he has done little to suggest that he is about to become an elite level quarterback overnight. More likely, he will struggle at times in 2010 and the team will almost certainly look to increase the use of their running attack behind 2009 1st round pick Chris Wells.
Leinart figures to be a mid to low end backup fantasy quarterback in 2010, albeit one with upside. In dynasty leagues, he’s certainly worth taking a chance on.
Johnson Signs on to Backup Portis in Washington
Former Chief Larry Johnson signed a two year deal for the chance to compete for playing time in Washington behind starter Clinton Portis. While Johnson has been an enigma for his entire career and is perhaps the most overrated fantasy running back over the last decade with just two 1,000 yard seasons out of seven in the league, his performance over the last few years hasn’t been as horrible as some would suggest.
He averaged 4.5 yards per carry in 2008 and would have topped 1,000 yards had he not missed four games due to his off the field transgressions. While his performance last year was poor, it seems clear that he is a player that plays best when his back is against the wall or when he is challenged.
His best years in the league came when he had to beat Priest Holmes out of the starting spot in Kansas City. In Washington, his career is on the line and he will be out of the league unless his performs.
In Washington, they might consider him the oldest running back on the roster since at 30, he is two years older than Clinton Portis. However, he’s carried the ball 775 fewer times in his career. He’s worth taking a flier on but certainly not worth reaching for.
By: Dave Stringer — March 15, 2010 @ 9:09 am
After a short free agent tour that saw him take trips to Minnesota and New York, LaDainian Tomlinson flew home to San Diego to mull his options and has chosen to join the New York Jets in 2010. Reports indicate he will sign a 2 year deal for over $5 million.
Tomlinson was looking for a chance to play on a contending team in 2010 but also wanted to be in a situation where he had the potential to get 10-15 carries a game. It should come as no surprise that he chose to sign with a Jets team that relies heavily on the run and features a much less proven number one guy relative to the Vikings. The Vikings also sport a solid passing game with Brett Favre at the helm.
The Jets were in the market for a veteran back after failing to renegotiate the final year on Thomas Jones’ contract and watching him move to Kansas City. Tomlinson’s signing may also be an indication that the team is concerned about Leon Washington’s recovery from a broken right fibula.
With Washington also a restricted free agent, the move to acquire Tomlinson now allows the Jets to consider taking draft pick compensation if another team signs Washington to an offer sheet they deem to be excessive. Washington was tendered at the 2nd round pick level.
Reports out of San Francisco indicate the 49ers are interested in a running back who can returns kicks. Washington is another logical destination for Leon Washington.
Fantasy Impact
In New York, Tomlinson joins a Jets team that led the league in rushing in 2010 with 2,756 yards and carries with 607, 140 more than the Vikings. Clearly, the Jets represented his best opportunity to get on the field and this in turns positively impacts his fantasy value.
Unfortunately he is coming off the worst year of his career with 730 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns while averaging 3.3 yards per attempt. In addition, he had just 154 yards receiving, well off his career average of 475 entering the season.
Fantasy wise the issue is, what does he have left? In considering Tomlinson’s performance, what is often overlooked is the deteriorating play of the Chargers’ offensive line over the last two seasons.
The Jets possess perhaps the league’s best run blocking offensive line. Last year, counting the game where Washington was injured, Shonn Greene averaged over 10 carries per game backing up Jones. Expect Tomlinson to average at least that many touches due to his superior receiving ability, something that kept Greene off the field in certain situations.
Tomlinson figures to approach but not exceed the 730 yards he had in 2009 with fewer than the 12 touchdowns he posted last year. Look for 600-650 yards and four to six touchdowns. If Washington goes elsewhere, Tomlinson also becomes the team’s receiving back. For Greene’s owners, he is a must have handcuff.
Greene was pegged as a low end RB2 with upside and he slides down a couple of spots in the rankings. He remains a solid option in all fantasy leagues but his value takes a hit due to the acquisition of Tomlinson and his lack of touches in the passing game. Greene failed to catch a pass in the regular season as a rookie. He caught one in three playoff games.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 7:46 am
1. Antonio Gates, SD—Gates bounced back last year after a subpar year in 2008 to lead all tight ends in receiving yards. The Chargers offense figures to dominate and he had six TD in the last six games of 2009.
2. Brent Celek, PHI—Built on his impressive late season performance in 2008 to become the 4th ranked fantasy TE in 2009 with nearly 1,000 yards receiving and eight TD. No reason why he can’t duplicate that in 2010.
3. Vernon Davis, SF—Huge, unforeseen breakout campaign in 2009 that included 13 TD made him the top fantasy TE. Difficult to imagine that happening again but he should top 900 yards again next year.
4. Dallas Clark, IND—Coming off a career year where he benefited from the absence of a solid threat opposite Reggie Wayne early in 2009. With Anthony Gonzalez back from injury and Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie developing, Clark’s opportunities could be reduced in 2010.
5. Jermichael Finley, GB—Had a coming out party in 2009 with 55 receptions for 676 yards and five TD despite playing in only 13 games with nine starts. Finley averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game over the last five games of the season. Young player with major upside who should be the top ranked TE in dynasty leagues.
6. Owen Daniels, HOU—Daniels was on pace for a career year in 2009 before an ACL injury derailed his season. If he is fully recovered by week one, he will be in the top 5 in 2010 but that is unlikely.
7. Tony Gonzalez, ATL—Another solid campaign but he looked slower than in 2008 and was definitely underutilized by the Falcons.
8. Heath Miller, PIT—Coming off a career year, Miller emerged as a solid check down option for the Steelers as well as a great option in the red zone. Expect similar production in 2010.
9. Jason Witten, DAL—Witten ranked 3rd in yards amongst TE last year with 1,030 but was only the 8th ranked fantasy TE due to his low TD total (two in 2009, scoring six over the last two years). The Cowboys have shown a propensity to throw to their big wide receivers in the end zone and there’s little reason why that would change in 2010.
10. Kellen Winslow, TB—Sneaks into the top 10 despite being hindered by quarterback play and the lack of a dominant wide receiver in what figures to be one of the worst offenses in the league in 2010.
11. Zach Miller, OAK—Miller doesn’t get the credit he deserves, mostly because he has never had the chance to play with a decent quarterback. However, his numbers improved once the team benched JaMarcus Russell and Russell will be on a shorter leash in 2010.
12. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN—A solid fantasy TE for the last two years because he is a TD machine (11 last year and seven in 2008). However, he has yet to top 600 yards so if you grab him, you’re banking on the touchdowns and that makes him a bit of a risk.
13. Greg Olsen, CHI—Olsen is talented but no TE in a Mike Martz offense has ever topped 380 yards. As with Shiancoe, if you grab him, you’re banking on touchdowns.
14. John Carlson, SEA—Carlson wasn’t a bust in 2009 but it’s safe to say that his owners expected him to improve on his rookie season in 2008 and that didn’t happen. He was forced to stay in to pass protect more often and given the team’s questionable offensive line, that likely won’t change much in 2010.
15. Chris Cooley, WAS—Suffered an ankle injury which relegated him to seven games last year. He is a talented player and, at 27, should bounce back but the Redskins offense is in a rebuilding mode and Fred Davis played well in his absence.
16. Brandon Pettigrew, DET—Last year’s top ranked rookie TE was rounding nicely into form with 15 receptions for 165 yards and two TD in the three games before he suffered a season-ending knee injury. Might start slowly in 2010 but expect him to come on by mid-season.
17. Kevin Boss, NYG—Boss has increased his receiving yards every year (118 to 384 to 567) which is encouraging, however the team completely forgot about him in the red zone until week eight last year. He had five TD over his final nine games but may be forgotten once again in 2010 due to the emergence of the team’s wide receivers.
18. Todd Heap, BAL—Provided a surprisingly solid season last year but he’s about to turn 30, he’s injury prone and the Ravens will almost certainly pick up a TE in the draft.
19. Dustin Keller, NYJ—Similar to Carlson in that an improvement in his receiving numbers was expected in his second year, but he was held in to pass block more. Keller got a boost when Leon Washington went down but not as much as expected.
20. Jeremy Shockey, NO—Played well when he was healthy in 2009 but still missed two games and played hurt in a number of others.
21. Tony Scheffler, DEN—Forgotten man in Denver last year figures to have a new team in 2010.
22. Marcedes Lewis, JAC—Has improved his yardage totals in each of his four years in the league but has never topped two TD in a season which severely restricts his fantasy usefulness.
23. Anthony Fasano, MIA—Fasano was a decent option in 2008 courtesy of his seven TD but slumped to just two last season. His receiving skills are mediocre at best.
24. Daniel Fells, STL—The Rams didn’t tender Fells but was re-signed after the Patriots expressed interest. Obviously, they’re not sold on him and you shouldn’t be either.
25. Fred Davis, WAS—Played too well last year to be relegated to a strictly backup role but the Redskins offense figures to be mediocre in 2010 so his upside is limited unless Cooley gets hurt again.
26. Chase Coffman, CIN—The Bengals have big hopes for him, but with the addition of Antonio Bryant and strong running by Cedric Benson, there are already a lot of mouths to feed in this offense.
27. Bo Scaife, TEN—Seemed to be a promising player a couple of years ago but now he is what he is—30-40 yards per game and one or two TD on the season. Why bother.
28. David Thomas, NO—Thomas showed surprising receiving ability last year in limited opportunities, which makes you wonder what he might do if Shockey were to suffer a season-ending injury.
29. Brad Cottam, KC—He’s the starter for the Chiefs but there is not much upside here.
30. Dante Rosario, CAR—Another player who has looked the part at times but never put it together for an extended number of games.
31. Jared Cook, TEN—Titans are high on him and he could surprise if he can beat out Scaife and assume the role full-time.
32. Ben Watson, CLE—Watson moves from the Patriots, where he continued to tease fantasy owners with short flashes of excellence, to the Browns. Not overly excited here.
33. James Casey, HOU—Casey showed some ability last year and could get some opportunities if Daniels is slow to recover from injury.
34. Leonard Pope, KC—Pope moved from the Cardinals to the Chiefs last year, and got some chances in K.C. but didn’t do much with them.
By: Dave Stringer — March 12, 2010 @ 1:38 am
1. Andre Johnson, HOU—Followed up his 1,575 yard, eight TD season in 2008 with 1,569 yards and nine TD in 2009. Let’s chalk him up for, say, 1,575 yards and, oh, eight or nine TD. Good enough for our top spot.
2. Randy Moss, NE—With Wes Welker coming back from injury, a lack of a proven threat at the other outside receiver position and no tight end who can catch, Moss’ opportunities figure to increase in 2010.
3. Roddy White, ATL—Not quite as explosive as he was in 2008, White still managed 1,153 yards and 11 TD. If Matt Ryan continues to develop, White figures to produce more.
4. Miles Austin, DAL—Huge breakout season in 2009 vaulted him to the top of the Cowboys depth chart and there’s no reason why he can’t duplicate his performance this year.
5. Brandon Marshall, DEN—Despite the turmoil in Denver last year, he was still the 5th ranked fantasy wide receiver. No matter what team he lands on, he’s in the top 10.
6. DeSean Jackson, PHI—Was the most explosive big play receiver in the league last year and is only getting better.
7. Vincent Jackson, SD—Coming off a solid campaign that was marred by a four game slump between weeks 10-13. Jackson will likely be suspended for one or two games due to his off the field troubles.
8. Calvin Johnson, DET—Definitely one of the largest fantasy busts at wide receiver in 2009 with under 1,000 yards and only five TD. However, Matthew Stafford figures to improve significantly in 2010 and hopefully Johnson can avoid the nagging injuries that hindered his performance last year.
9. Greg Jennings, GB—Another fantasy disappointment who posted solid receiving yards but managed just four TD after scoring 21 during the previous two years.
10. Marques Colston, NO—Dynamite talent who suffers fantasy wise from playing on a team with so many solid offensive skill position players.
11. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI—Talent wise, he is definitely higher. Rankings wise, you have to move him down based on the departures of Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin.
12. Reggie Wayne, IND—Was exceptional for the first nine games of 2009 but trailed off badly during the last seven with 385 yards and two TD, which begs the question—is he wearing down at 31. The return of Anthony Gonzalez figures to have a minor negative impact on his numbers.
13. Sidney Rice, MIN—Breakout campaign in 2009 but difficult to bank on another phenomenal season from Brett Favre plus Percy Harvin’s role figures to expand.
14. Santonio Holmes, PIT—Finally delivered on his promise with a solid season in 2009 but still left something to be desired with only five TD, including a nine game stretch when he failed to find the end zone.
15. Hakeem Nicks, NYG—Simply put, he looks like a younger, faster version of Anquan Boldin. Nicks had 115 fantasy points on only 74 targets, ranking him 5th in that category. Look for the Giants to get him more involved in 2010.
16. Anquan Boldin, BAL—The move to Baltimore figures to have little effect on Boldin. If he’s healthy for 14-16 games, expect a little over 1,000 yards and 8-10 TD.
17. Chad Ochocinco, CIN—Comeback season in 2009 but is a year older and with Antonio Bryant an improvement over Laveraneus Coles opposite him, his targets may go down.
18. Michael Crabtree, SF—Solid rookie season and he figures to top 1,000 yards in 2010 but tight end Vernon Davis gobbles up the touchdowns so it’s hard to move Crabtree higher.
19. Mike Sims-Walker, JAC—Talented player coming off a breakout season but disappeared at times. With more consistency, he could hit the top 10. Here’s at 19 but with upside.
20. Steve Smith, NYG—Came out of nowhere to become the 12th ranked fantasy wide receiver in 2009. Here’s the question—do you believe? He’s at 20 so I’m not entirely sold especially with talented youngsters Nicks and Mario Manningham on board in New York.
21. Percy Harvin, MIN—Nice rookie season from Harvin and he has the talent to be a 1,000 yard receiver for years to come. The quarterback situation in Minnesota will impact where he ultimately lands in the projections and rankings.
22. Steve Smith, CAR—Salvaged his fantasy reputation with some nice games at the end of the season. His production in 2010 hinges on the play of new quarterback Matt Moore.
23. Dwayne Bowe, KC—Worked his way into new head coach Todd Haley’s doghouse by being an out of shape diva and then made things worse by getting suspended for four games. I keep wondering why Michael Clayton pops into my mind when I’m talking about Bowe?
24. Donald Driver, GB—Just keeps on producing but worrying signs on the horizon due to his week 14-17 production of 185 yards and no TD.
25. Jeremy Maclin, PHI—Maclin played well as a rookie with 762 yards and four TD. Natural progression should help him top 900 yards with at least six TD in 2010.
26. Hines Ward, PIT—Even though he had to play through some nagging injuries, he managed his most receiving yards since the 2003 season. He’s still Ben Roethlisberger’s security blanket.
27. Wes Welker, NE—Assuming he returns by the fourth week of the season, Welker still figures to land in the top 30.
28. Mike Wallace, PIT—Was the biggest surprise amongst the rookie receivers with 756 yards and six TD, good enough for 34th overall at the position. Look for him to improve on that in 2010.
29. Kenny Britt, TEN—Topped 700 yards as a rookie but only had three TD despite his 6’3”, 220 pound frame. The Titans are a well coached team so expect his red zone targets to increase in 2010.
30. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ—Solid player who produces but doesn’t get enough targets to be a fantasy difference maker.
31. Steve Breaston, ARI—Moves into the starting line-up with Boldin’s departure but questions about Matt Leinart and Breaston’s lack of TD (only six on 140 career receptions) keep his ranking down.
32. Devin Aromashodu, CHI—Look for him to line up outside and be the main benefactor at wide receiver of the team’s decision to install Mike Martz at offensive co-ordinator. Solid dynasty option, provided he can hold off Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox.
33. Robert Meachem, NO—Has all the tools but needs to be more consistent so the coaches have confidence to make him a bigger part of the game plan. Entering his 4th season, maybe the light will stay on more frequently. Big upside.
34. Malcom Floyd, SD—The Chargers dumped Chris Chambers to get him into the starting line-up. Floyd is a tall, physical receiver who has the ability to go up and get jump balls on deep passes. Decent upside considering he plays on a solid offense that passes plenty.
35. Nate Burleson, DET—Burleson moves to the Lions where he figures to get plenty of single coverage opposite Calvin Johnson.
36. Mario Manningham, NYG—Solid second season with 822 yards and five TD but dropped at least 200 yards and two or three TD worth of production. Solid upside if Steve Smith’s career year was a fluke (which is possible).
37. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA—Last year’s most overhyped wide receiver free agent signing was a bust in Seattle. With an aging O-line and quarterback, and Burleson in Detroit, expect similar production in 2010.
38. Braylon Edwards, NYJ—Maddeningly inconsistent on a team that likes to run. He’s their deep threat who averaged six targets a game with the Jets, too low to be even a WR3.
39. Pierre Garcon, IND—Made some big plays in his second year, finishing with 47 receptions for 765 yards and four TD. However, perhaps it is telling that he only caught 51% of the passes thrown his way, exceptionally low considering Peyton Manning’s 68.8% completion rate in 2009.
40. Lee Evans, BUF—Remarkably the Bills seem content with Trent Edwards at quarterback. Realistically, a rookie wouldn’t be much better so in either scenario, Evans ranks as a WR4 in 2010.
41. Derrick Mason, BAL—Back in Baltimore for another season but now playing second fiddle to Boldin.
42. Earl Bennett, CHI—Solid sophomore season after being a bust as a rookie. May not have the speed that Martz requires out wide and he’s not an option as a slot receiver.
43. Anthony Gonzalez, IND—He’s back in Indy after a wasted 2009 campaign. Caught 71.8% of the passes Manning tossed his way during his first two years in the league. While others are clamouring for Garcon and Collie, get Gonzalez on the cheap.
44. Devery Henderson, NO—He’s fast, he plays on one of the best passing offenses in the league but he doesn’t go over the middle so his fantasy upside is dependent on touchdowns. He had two last year.
45. Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE—Productive as a rookie with 624 yards and three TD but was that because they didn’t have anybody else to throw to? Who’s the QB in 2010 and how much are they throwing it? Hard to see the upside here.
46. Chris Chambers, KC—Did some nice things in K.C. in 2009 but now has his shiny new contract and don’t forget that he basically disappeared for a year and a half in San Diego.
47. Antonio Bryant, CIN—Bryant is a talented receiver. Unfortunately in Cincinnati he’s the second most talented receiver and they don’t throw it a whole lot.
48. Donnie Avery, STL—A burner who is maddeningly inconsistent and injury prone. Plus, the Rams have some major questions marks at quarterback. That being said, he has some upside provided they bring in a veteran like Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick.
49. Chaz Schilens, OAK—He’s Oakland’s best receiver. That’s not saying much and the quarterback situation is a mess so not much upside here.
50. Early Doucet, ARI—Looked like a poor man’s version of Anquan Boldin in the playoffs, when he put up 145 yards receiving and two TD. If he beats out Breaston, he could be WR3 material.
51. Santana Moss, WAS—Another player who is his team’s best receiver and another, “so what?”
52. Kevin Walter, HOU—Solid possession receiver coming off a down year, mostly due to injury, he could benefit if Owen Daniels is slow to recover from a torn ACL.
53. Davone Bess, MIA—Was the Dolphins most productive receiver over the last two years but is a small, shifty player who lacks top end speed, averages 10.1 yards per reception and has three TD in two years. Once again, not much upside.
54. Devin Thomas, WAS—Showed some flashes last year but now has to prove it to a new coach and may be catching balls from a rookie quarterback. That being said, there isn’t much talent at wide receiver in Washington so he could come on.
55. Josh Morgan, SF—Looks the part but seems to lack big play ability. Maybe the light goes on in 2010.
56. Roy Williams, DAL—Seven TD salvaged his fantasy season in 2009 when he had just 596 yards receiving. Caught 44.2% of his targets, a clear indication he and Tony Romo have some chemistry building to do.
57. Eddie Royal, DEN—Huge fantasy disappointment with 345 yards receiving and no TD after a rookie season of 91 receptions for 980 yards and five TD. Head coach Josh McDaniels says he’s going to be more involved in 2010 and if Marshall is traded, maybe it happens. There is some upside here.
58. Mike Thomas, JAC—Flashed some playmaking ability as a rookie but will need to beat out fellow second year player Jarrett Dillard to get into the starting line-up.
59. Jacoby Jones, HOU—Texans head coach Gary Kubiak says he loves Jones’ potential. If that’s the case, why did they sign Kevin Walter to a lucrative long-term contract?
60. Jason Avant, PHI—Has improved in each of his four years in the league. If Jackson or Maclin go down, Avant has the talent to produce.
61. Deion Branch, SEA—Hey, the Seahawks are going to be behind plenty and somebody has to catch some balls.
62. Johnny Knox, CHI—Move him up plenty if he works his way into the starting line-up.
63. Bernard Berrian, MIN—Sidney Rice. Percy Harvin. Meet Minnesota’s starting receivers in 2010.
64. Devin Hester, CHI—Mike Martz says Hester’s going to line up in the slot which will keep him fresh to return kicks. One comment like that and his potential drops like a stone.
65. James Jones, GB—Displayed inconsistent hands, but he’s talented enough to produce if injury strikes Jennings or Driver.
66. Nate Washington, TEN—With Britt needing to start, it makes more sense to have the explosive Washington in the starting line-up ahead of Justin Gage.
67. Brandon Gibson, STL—Showed some potential as a possession receiver and the Rams have a major need in that area.
68. Laurent Robinson, STL—Looked good before getting hurt in the third game of the season.
69. Patrick Crayton, DAL—Not much upside but he has a couple of solid games every year.
70. Malcolm Kelly, WAS—Hasn’t done much in two years and the knock on him is that he doesn’t use his size to his advantage. This is likely his last year to put it together.
By: Dave Stringer — March 11, 2010 @ 1:37 pm
Almost one year after signing Laveranues Coles to be the team’s starting wide receiver opposite Chad Ochocinco, the Bengals have signed former Buc Antonio Bryant to provide the production Coles failed to. Bryant has signed for a reported $28 million over four years.
Bryant is coming off a down year in Tampa Bay which was partly due to knee surgery during training camp. The Bucs also used inexperienced quarterbacks for most of the year. In 13 games, he had 39 receptions for 600 yards and four touchdowns.
The Bengals are hoping that his knee is fully recovered and that he can duplicate his career year in 2008 when he had 83 receptions for 1,248 yards and seven touchdowns, all career highs. The team struggled in the passing game in 2009, finishing 26th in yards passing while featuring the league’s 9th best running attack.
Although Bryant isn’t a true burner, he is a strong, physical receiver who is adept at making acrobatic catches and is capable of getting deep, as evidenced by his career average yards per catch of 15.4.
Fantasy Impact
In Cincinnati, Bryant joins a team that morphed from being a passing team to a running team during the 2009 season. The team averaged just 181 yards passing last year and quarterback Carson Palmer had his worst year statistically since his second year in the league (excluding his injury shortened 2008 season).
With the Bengals making the playoffs using an offense based heavily on the run, there is little reason to suggest they will change that in 2010. Bryant figures to be more productive than Coles, who clearly lost a step in 2009, or Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson, 2nd year players last year who clearly were not ready for feature roles.
Bryant figures to slot in as a fantasy WR4 or WR5 with upside. However, look for him to be drafted higher than that based on his strong 2008 campaign and perhaps the unfounded belief that the Bengals will revert back to their pass happy ways. A season of 750 yards and 4-6 touchdowns seems likely.
Bryant’s presence should have no effect on Ochocinco but certainly hinders the prospects of Caldwell and Simpson as well as Matt Jones. Caldwell figures to get the work out of the slot with Jones being used more in the red zone. Simpson might be looking for employment elsewhere in 2010.
As for Palmer, his status as a fantasy backup remains unchanged. Ignore these stats at your own peril—only nine games with over 200 yards passing, one game with over 300 yards passing and just five multi-touchdown games. He moves up in the rankings with Bryant on board but remains a low end backup at this point.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 8:40 am
It’s never too early to start planning ahead for the 2010 fantasy season. My quarterback rankings came first, and now it is time for the running backs.
These rankings are based on my preliminary—and not yet released—2010 projections, which haven’t been scrubbed for off the field issues and consistency factors, plus some players are still bound to change teams via trade, release or inability to agree on a contract with their current club. The rankings are sure to change many times between now and September.
Still, it is great to be thinking and opining about football, and I’m sure there will be lots of discussion right off the top of most RB rankings this year as there is no clear cut consensus number one selection.
For me, Adrian Peterson of the Vikings gets the nod for top spot, followed by Maurice Jones-Drew ahead of Chris Johnson. Peterson is a more powerful runner. He’s managed to stay healthy during his three seasons in the league, he improved dramatically as a receiver in 2009 and he’s the running back most likely to hit the 16-18 touchdown range. Let the quibbling begin.
I haven’t ranked veteran runners such as LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook because we don’t know where they will be in 2010. Realistically, they are going to be in time shares or backup roles. The same logic applies to rookies so they haven’t been included yet.
Also, with Tomlinson off the roster in San Diego and Darren Sproles not suited for the feature role, these rankings do not include as yet unknown feature back in San Diego next year.
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN—Bit of a disappointment in 2009 but still the best bet to land at the top of the RB rankings in 2010.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC—Big numbers last year despite a lack of talent around him.
3. Chris Johnson, TEN—Most will have him higher but he’s here due to concerns about the dual effects of his overuse in 2009 and his stature.
4. Ray Rice, BAL—No reason why he can’t duplicate his breakout performance from last year.
5. Frank Gore, SF—There’s a lot of young skill position talent in San Francisco. If Alex Smith is decent at quarterback and the O-line is replenished, Gore will be dynamite.
6. Steven Jackson, STL—The Rams O can’t be any worse and SJax was huge last year despite his weak supporting cast and a back injury that slowed him down.
7. Michael Turner, ATL—Injuries are the only thing that are going to slow down
Turner but his lack of receiving ability keeps him out of the top 5.
8. DeAngelo Williams, CAR—Injuries held him back in 2009, otherwise he would have been in the top 10 for the second year in a row.
9. Ryan Grant, GB—Grant isn’t flashy but he’s the undisputed lead back on one of the league’s most explosive offenses.
10. Knowshon Moreno, DEN—Solid but not spectacular as a rookie. Bet on an increased workload propelling him near the top 10 in 2010.
11. Chris Wells, ARI—Kurt Warner is gone, so the Cardinals are going to run more next year and Wells is clearly a more talented back than Tim Hightower. Sometimes it’s that simple.
12. Jonathan Stewart, CAR—There’s no reason why the Panthers won’t have two 1,000 yard backs again in 2010.
13. Cedric Benson, CIN—Undisputed lead back in an offense based heavily on the run. His hard running style makes him susceptible to injury or else he would be in the top 10.
14. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT—Put up solid numbers after taking over for Willie Parker last year but never looked all that impressive.
15. Fred Jackson, BUF—Bills figure to move Jackson ahead of Marshawn Lynch. Finished 17th in the rankings last year so there’s no reason to move him down.
16. Pierre Thomas, NO—Lead back on an offense returning all of its key pieces. Committee backfield keeps him around the 18h position he finished in last year but he has huge upside.
17. Matt Forte, CHI—He’s not overly talented but he has receiving ability, a prerequisite for a back in a Mike Martz offense. Injuries and a poor O-line held him back in 2009. He was just outside my top 10 until the Chester Taylor signing.
18. Shonn Greene, NYJ—Came on strong at the end of last season and in the playoffs. Greene represents major upside with the release of Thomas Jones.
19. Kevin Smith, DET—Bit of a sophomore slump coupled with a knee injury last year that could hold him back early in 2010. Lions have young, talented playmakers on offense.
20. Ricky Williams, MIA—The Dolphins run it a lot, Williams looked fantastic last year and Ronnie Brown is coming off an injury (again). What’s not to like.
21. Joseph Addai, IND—Snuck into the top 10 last year, courtesy of his 13 TD and rookie Donald Brown missing five games. Look for Addai’s role to decrease in 2010.
22. Jamaal Charles, KC—He was a monster for eight games last year, partly because of his receiving ability. Was in the top 10 until the team signed Thomas Jones who will eat into the goal line work and likely get 10-12 carries a game.
23. Ronnie Brown, MIA—He’s missed an average of four games a year over his five-year career and has only one 1,000 yard season. Just giving you the facts.
24. LeSean McCoy, PHI—Brian Westbrook is gone and McCoy takes over full time. McCoy could land higher but Leonard Weaver figures to get the goal line work.
25. Jerome Harrison, CLE—Most will rank him higher but the bottom line is that he did nothing for three years and 89 of his 150 fantasy points came in three games against the Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars.
26. Brandon Jacobs, NYG—Huge letdown in 2009 courtesy of a knee injury that wasn’t disclosed until after the season. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s always out with injuries or having to play through them.
27. Cadillac Williams, TB—Bucs O can’t be as bad as it was last year and young O-line should improve, especially if guard Aaron Sears returns.
28. Felix Jones, DAL—Bank on a bigger role for Jones in 2010 but unless he gets more goal line work, it’s difficult to move him higher.
29. Marion Barber, DAL—Expect fewer yards from Barber, but a similar TD total in 2010.
30. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG—Put up solid numbers with an increased workload in 2009. Key question is whether that workload was the result of Jacobs’ injury or Bradshaw’s effectiveness?
31. Darren Sproles, SD—Coming off a career year with 840 total yards and seven TD. In my opinion, this is pretty much his upside, save for a few more yards.
32. Justin Forsett, SEA—He’s the number one guy in Seattle until the draft. Check back after that.
33. Michael Bush, OAK—He’s been Oakland’s healthiest and most effective back running the football over the past two seasons. Presumably the Raiders will eventually figure that out.
34. Reggie Bush, NO—It looks like the Saints want him back. On the plus side, he equalled a career high in TD last year. On the down side, his touches have declined three straight years, hitting 117 last year.
35. Clinton Portis, WAS—New head coach Mike Shanahan’s teams have a history of running the ball successfully and although Portis wasn’t great last year before being injured, he wasn’t as bad as advertised.
36. Thomas Jones, KC—Coming off two top 10 fantasy seasons, he’s going to eat into Charles’ workload in K.C.
37. Arian Foster, HOU—Let’s assume Foster gets the running downs and goal line carries in Houston next year. The draft may dictate otherwise.
38. Steve Slaton, HOU—He ran it horribly last year but did you know he was the 31st ranked RB playing in only 11 games? Hard to move him lower than this.
39. Donald Brown, IND—Look for an increased role for Brown in his 2nd year. He’s projected here but has major upside.
40. Darren McFadden, OAK—Basically, the Raiders offense is in shambles and in two years, McFadden has done nothing to prove that he’s a feature back.
41. Tim Hightower, ARI—Highly productive first two years in the league but is likely relegated to a backup and pass catching role in 2010. Wells seems too powerful to not get the goal line work.
42. Chester Taylor, CHI—He’s here based on the assumption he backs up Forte but he moves up significantly if he wins the job and is just outside the top 30 if he gets the goal line work.
43. Willis McGahee, BAL—Somewhat surprisingly, the Ravens wanted him back this year. Note that 113 of his 146 fantasy points came in five games.
44. Laurence Maroney, NE—Surprisingly solid season in 2009 but fell into the doghouse at the end of the year. He might not be back in New England.
45. Julius Jones, SEA—What is there to say? He’s never fulfilled the promise he showed as a rookie six long years ago.
46. Sammy Morris, NE—The Pats like him so he’ll be back and score a few fantasy points, almost certainly sitting on someone’s bench. Why bother?
47. Leonard Weaver, PHI—With Westbrook gone, Weaver is likely in line to get the goal line work and some carries as McCoy’s backup.
48. Mike Bell, NO—Great change of pace back for the Saints. Look for another 600 yard, 5-6 TD season if they bring him back.
49. Correll Buckhalter, DEN—Moreno’s in line for more work but Buckhalter has proven to be effective in a backup role.
50. Marshawn Lynch, BUF—No surprise if he’s elsewhere in 2010. Major shocker if he opens the season as Buffalo’s starter.
51. Derrick Ward, TB—Bust in 2009 will be relegated to backup role in Tampa next year.
52. Kevin Faulk, NE—See Sammy Morris above.
53. Leon Washington, NYJ—His injury was a bad one, so expect his upside and touches to be limited for now.
54. Bernard Scott, CIN—Showed some promise as a rookie but workhorse Benson will restrict Scott’s carries unless injuries strike.
55. Jason Snelling, ATL—Looked good last year with Turner and Jerious Norwood suffering injuries but likely earns very limited touches if both are healthy in 2010.
56. Jerious Norwood, ATL—With Snelling’s emergence, he could be attractive trade bait and end up elsewhere next year.
57. Maurice Morris, DET—If Kevin Smith isn’t ready to open the season, Morris may be a useful flex play.
58. Brandon Jackson, GB—Injury prone backup is an effective receiver but has no chance to usurp Grant given his poor running ability.
59. Mewelde Moore, PIT—Surprisingly productive when given an opportunity.
« Newer Posts — Older Posts »
| |
|
Powered by
WordPress |
|
|
