|
Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
|
 By: Dave Stringer — July 16, 2009 @ 4:54 pm
Our initial tight end rankings for 2009 were posted back in March with Cowboys tight end Jason Witten in the number one position. Witten was enjoying a stellar campaign in 2008 before injuries and an injury to quarterback Tony Romo derailed his season.
As we noted in March, the top tight ends in 2008 significantly outscored lower tier starters. The top four or five tight ends again figure to outscore players below them by a wide margin, so they are worth using a reasonably high draft pick or auction dollars on to secure their services in your fantasy starting line-up.
In 2009, the tight ends generally consist of an upper tier and then a larger number of players that can be classified as either solid veteran producers or players capable of a breakout campaign. Therefore, the argument could be made that there is little reason to get a tight end early unless you are convinced you want a player from the top tier. Otherwise, it likely makes sense to wait to get your starting tight end later in the draft.
There were some incredible values at the position last year and that figures to be the case once again in 2009. For instance, early average draft position rankings have Houston’s Owen Daniels going in the 8th round, Seattle’s John Carlson in the 9th round and Dustin Keller of the Jets in the 12th round. These were the 6th, 7th and 14th rated tight ends last year. Keller’s ranking would have been higher had he played more in the first half of the season.
1. Jason Witten, DAL – Five total points in games without Tony Romo last year plus Terrell Owens is now gone points to a great season for Witten.
2. Antonio Gates, SD – Averaged over 120 targets between 2004-2007, but only 92 in an injury plagued 2008.
3. Dallas Clark, IND – Becomes the team’s second best receiving option with the departure of Marvin Harrison. He could have huge year if his red zone targets increase.
4. Tony Gonzalez, ATL – Hard to see him duplicating his 2008 performance in the run heavy Falcons offense.
5. Owen Daniels, HOU – 862 yards in 2008 with only two TD but that should increase in 2009. The Texans offense should be formidable in 2009.
6. Chris Cooley, WAS – Elite status for Cooley is not likely given poor 2nd half performance by the Washington offense.
7. Greg Olsen, CHI – This should be the year he relegates Desmond Clark to the bench. The addition of QB Jay Cutler will increase the team’s reliance on the pass.
8. John Carlson, SEA – Targets should be down with T.J. Houshmandzadeh signing and a healthy Deion Branch and Nate Burleson. However, team’s woeful running game will mean there are plenty of targets to go around.
9. Kellen Winslow, TB – There are quarterback issues in Tampa but Winslow should rebound from an off year in 2008. He could suffer down the stretch if rookie Josh Freeman moves into the starting role.
10. Tony Scheffler, DEN – A talented but injury prone tight end. Top five fantasy potential based on his skills but unlikely to achieve that with Kyle Orton now at QB.
11. Zach Miller, OAK – Perhaps the league’s most underrated tight end. A bad offense in Oakland holds him back. Would benefit greatly if Jeff Garcia takes over for JaMarcus Russell at quarterback.
12. Dustin Keller, NYJ – Expect lots of catches but few TD with rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez running the show.
13. Kevin Boss, NYG – Giant offense loses Plaxico Burress so Boss figures to be top red zone target, at least until one of the younger wide receivers develops.
14. Brent Celek, PHI – Could be in for a big year but there are plenty of options in Philly. Offense figures to be a juggernaut and he is a solid red zone target.
15. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN – Don’t expect seven TD again in 2009. Benefits due to all of the speed at the other skill positions.
16. Heath Miller, PIT – Better prospects in 2009 with Nate Washington gone but still a fantasy backup.
17. Bo Scaife, TEN – Solid receiving tight end but doesn’t get enough targets. With Scaife a free agent at season’s end, the Titans may look to groom talented but inconsistent rookie 3rd round pick Jared Cook.
18. Jeremy Shockey, NO – Just a bit part in the New Orleans offense and seemingly on the downside of his career.
19. Vernon Davis, SF – Doesn’t taste as good as it looks in the wrapper. Davis is big, strong, fast and frustrating. Unfortunately, he’s more of the latter than any of the former.
20. Randy McMichael, STL – Torry Holt is gone and the remaining receivers have combined to start only 19 games in the league. McMichael figures to be QB Marc Bulger’s security blanket and best option on third downs.
21. Ben Watson, NE – Perennial tease and incredibly inconsistent. Only seven games of ten or more fantasy points over the last three seasons.
22. Anthony Fasano, MIA – Boom or bust and unlikely to get seven TD in 2009.
23. David Martin, MIA – Decent player playing part-time.
24. L.J. Smith, BAL – More of a blocker now and will split time with Todd Heap.
25. Donald Lee, GB – Veteran is in danger of losing playing time to 2008 3rd round pick Jermichael Finley. Lee was solid in 2007 but an afterthought in 2008.
26. Martellus Bennett, DAL – A talented player who could produce with Owens gone and better understanding of the playbook.
27. Brandon Pettigrew, DET – Rookie 1st round pick is unlikely to post big numbers but has potential for keeper leagues.
28. Marcedes Lewis, JAC – The light hasn’t gone on yet and it is unlikely to now.
29. Jerramy Stevens, TB – Decent option given his skills and Winslow’s injury history.
30. Billy Miller, NO – Solid producer when Shockey was out of the lineup in 2008.
By: Dave Stringer — July 15, 2009 @ 9:54 am
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Derrick Mason unexpectedly announced his retirement Monday, ending his 12-year career a few weeks before he was expected at the team’s training camp to begin preparations for the 2009 season. There were reports that Mason was unhappy with his current contract and that may have played a role in his decision. His departure leaves a rather gaping hole at the wide receiver position for a team that was expected to make another deep run in the playoffs.
Mason’s production far exceeded his physical abilities during his career and, although only 5’10” and 195 pounds, he was extremely durable, missing only six games during his 12 seasons in the league. More quick and shifty than actually possessing deep speed, Mason made his fair share of big plays and despite lacking height was the quintessential possession receiver.
NFL pundits and fantasy football prognosticators often predicted his demise, particularly when he moved from the Titans to the Ravens run-heavy offense four years ago. However, Mason, as he generally always did, proved the naysayers wrong, posting three 1,000 yard seasons during his four years in Baltimore. His loss leaves the Ravens desperately thin at wide receiver and underscores general manager Ozzie Newsome’s inability to produce players at the position during his tenure with the team. Newsome has found tremendous values at every position except wide receiver.
It’s worth noting that the Ravens issued a statement indicating that Mason has not filed his retirement papers with the league. Therefore, there is a chance that he could reverse his decision and be back with the team in 2009.
Fantasy Football Impact
Mason’s retirement clearly vaults Mark Clayton into the role as the team’s number one receiver. Clayton isn’t a big target but he does possess deep speed and he is now a viable option as a number three wide receiver or number four with upside. Clayton has been inconsistent throughout his four-year career although his 2007 season was marred by injuries and personal issues. The 2005 1st round pick now has an opportunity to match or better his 939-yard, five touchdown performance from his second season in the league.
Demetrius Williams moves into the starting line-up and the perennial sleeper now becomes a viable option as your fifth or sixth fantasy wideout. Williams has size and speed but has not been able to remain healthy and missed nine games last year due to an injury to his Achilles’ tendon. During his three years in the league, Williams has missed 16 games and managed just 866 yards and three touchdowns in the 32 games that he’s appeared in. Marcus Smith, a 2008 4th round pick, moves into the third receiver role but he is considered a project and failed to catch a single pass during his rookie season.
Quarterback Joe Flacco clearly takes a hit with the loss of Mason, who was his security blanket at receiver and the team’s top option in the passing game on third down. At this point in their careers, both Clayton and Williams are better deep threats than crafty route runners so that will likely mean more targets for the team’s tight ends and running backs. My revised QB rankings, published just prior to this news, had Flacco as the 24th ranked fantasy quarterback and he will move down barring a move by the team that bolsters their wide receiver depth chart.
L.J. Smith apparently has the inside track to become the team’s starting tight end ahead of Todd Heap and both players figure to benefit from Mason’s departure. However, neither should be considered anything more than low end backups for fantasy purposes. Ray Rice figures to be the team’s top receiving threat at running back and he will likely pick up some of the slack in the passing game.
All of the above is prefaced on the assumption the team’s depth chart remains as currently stands which could be a poor assumption to make. The Ravens have made noises about acquiring Anquan Boldin from Arizona and may also have interest in the Broncos’ Brandon Marshall or free agent Plaxico Burress. The Browns’ Braylon Edwards could be available but they will not trade him to a team in their division.
By: Dave Stringer — July 13, 2009 @ 11:27 am
Last week, we provided our updated running back rankings for the upcoming season. That update featured a number of changes, including a few in the top ten, based on each team’s draft picks, free agent signings and various other news.
The early quarterback rankings were provided back in March and, as can be expected, they haven’t changed nearly as much as the running back rankings. Whereas rookie running backs are expected to step in and contribute immediately and later round picks can provide unexpected production at the position if given an opportunity, only rookie quarterbacks taken in the 1st or 2nd round generally play much in their first year in the league. On top of that, they almost never end up as solid fantasy performers because they don’t produce solid statistics and most fantasy leagues only start one quarterback.
Quarterback is generally the most overrated position in fantasy football. Basically, the top tier of quarterbacks start getting selected in the second round of fantasy drafts despite the fact there is very little difference between the top ranked fantasy quarterback and lowest rated starter. In ten team leagues, the points per game difference was only 4.6 and in twelve team leagues it was 5.8. In most twelve team leagues, the 12th quarterback will be taken in the 8th or 9th round, making it extremely difficult to justify selecting one in the 2nd round.
Here are the updated rankings, including a change at the top spot.
1. Tom Brady, NE – He’s certainly a risk and unlikely to post a repeat of his magnificent 2007 season. However, the potential is there and reports indicate he’s back to full health. It’s worth noting that he was injured in week one last year so he’s had plenty of time to rehab.
2. Drew Brees, NO – Less of a risk than Brady and almost certain to post huge numbers in the pass happy Saints offense. A healthy return for Reggie Bush and 16-games seasons for Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey would pretty much guarantee huge production once again in 2009.
3. Aaron Rodgers, GB – Enterting just his second season as a starter, fantasy’s 2nd ranked passer in 2008 isn’t getting the respect he deserves. He should be better in 2009 as should each of his receivers other than Donald Driver. Four of the team’s top five wide receivers have less than four seasons in the league. If running back Ryan Grant can avoid getting nicked up, the Packers offense will be dynamic.
4. Philip Rivers, SD – Rivers will try to duplicate his superb 2008 season and figures to do so with a full year of a healthy Antonio Gates. The team features big play threats at wide receiver, the league’s top pass receiving tight end and two excellent receivers at running back.
5. Kurt Warner, ARI – Health is always an issue, especially for an immobile 38-year old quarterback, but the Cards return their offensive nucleus and added running back Chris Wells. Basically, there isn’t any reason why Warner should suffer a drop-off given the talent that surrounds him.
6. Peyton Manning, IND – The Colts addressed the running back position and a return to glory is possible but the offense bogged down too many times in 2008 for that to be likely. Manning will need a huge season from tight end Dallas Clark given the lack of depth at wide receiver.
7. Donovan McNabb, PHI – The Eagles may just have the league’s best offensive line in 2009 with the additions of Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews. Adding rookie wide receiver Jeremy Maclin to DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis means the team can line up three speedsters. McNabb is always a value pick for some reason but in 2009 there is a chance that he could vault into the top five.
8. Matt Schaub, HOU – Houston’s offense is underrated despite featuring numerous playmakers who are all still young and getting better. Schaub is a perfect candidate to vault into the top five if he could ever stay healthy for 16 games.
9. Tony Romo, DAL – A turbulent offseason for Dallas’ quarterback which included the loss of big play threat Terrell Owens at wide receiver. There is potential at wide receiver in Miles Ausin and Patrick Crayton is a solid slot receiver but Owens’ departure creates a void. I’m not convinced Roy Williams will adequately replace Owens’ production.
10. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA – Injury issues and age are red flags, but T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and John Carlson form a solid nucleus of receivers. The team didn’t address a shaky running back position so the Seahawks offense will revolve around Hasselbeck and the passing game, barring an unexpected bounceback season from Julius Jones.
11. Jay Cutler, CHI – Likely to be fantasy football’s most overrated quarterback in 2009. Don’t be the one to drink the Kool-Aid. Huge 2008 numbers won’t be duplicated in Chicago due to the team’s reliance on the run and solid defense which will reduce the number of games in which Cutler is forced to pass 30 or more times. The Bears averaged almost six fewer passing attempts per game than the Broncos last year which translates into almost 100 fewer attempts over the course of a season.
12. Carson Palmer, CIN – With no T.J. Houshmandzadeh, an offensive line in flux and Cedric Benson as the current starter at running back, Palmer has a lot of forces working against him. Nonetheless, he’s a top talent and there is receiving talent (albeit with considerable risk) in Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles, Chris Henry and Andre Caldwell.
13. David Garrard, JAC – Seems to do it with smoke and mirrors. Garrard had surprisingly strong season totals in 2008 thanks to the rushing yards. Garrard should benefit from the addition of the aging but still talented Torry Holt, who could have a bounceback season given the dearth of talent amongst the team’s wide receivers.
14. Matt Cassel, KC – Goes from New England’s talented offense to a Chiefs team that features Dwayne Bowe and not much else (unless you believe Mark Bradley is ready to hit his stride). The loss of Tony Gonzalez at tight end was a big blow and two of the team’s most talented offensive players, Larry Johnson and Brian Waters, are wild cards. Not convinced he’s a top tier quarterback able to lift a team.
15. Trent Edwards, BUF – Gets a chance to shine with the addition of Terrell Owens, who provides another deep threat as well as an excellent red zone target. Needs to put it together this year but must avoid tendency to dump the ball off if he’s going to take it to the next level both as a starting quarterback and as a fantasy performer.
16. Matt Ryan, ATL – Talented young quarterback who is unlikely to be given an opportunity to put up big passing numbers. Moves up with the addition of Tony Gonzalez at tight end but the fact remains that head coach Mike Smith is committed to running the ball. Sophomore slump is unlikely but the Falcons are a running team.
17. Jason Campbell, WAS – Campbell’s in the same boat as Edwards but must make do with young, big receivers in Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly and has more talent at tight end in Chris Cooley. This might be Campell’s last chance to put it together.
18. Chad Pennington, MIA – Enjoyed a solid season in 2008 despite a lack of talent at wide receiver, which should be better in 2009 with another year of experience. Benefits from no late season bad weather in Miami but will be riding the pine if the team isn’t in contention for a playoff spot.
19. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT – Another overrated fantasy quarterback. Has achieved starter status once in five years. Basically, the team doesn’t need to throw a lot of passes with their solid defense. Loses his top deep threat in Nate Washington and will throw less in 2009 with return to health of top two running backs in Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall.
20. Jake Delhomme, CAR – His receivers are a year older and his running backs are a year better. Expect the Panthers to rely heavily on the ground game. Delhomme is pretty much guaranteed to be a fantasy backup.
21. Kyle Orton, DEN – Orton’s move to Denver upgrades his ranking as he will benefit from better receivers and playing for a team that figures to rely more on the passing game. However, Orton isn’t a risk taker so he’s unlikely to attempt the throws into traffic that Cutler did. If he changes his ways, he could have a surprisingly good season.
22. Eli Manning, NYG – Generally overrated as a fantasy peformer, Manning figures to suffer a drop in production with the loss of both starting wide receivers Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. Averaged less than 12 points per game with Burress out late last season.
23. Daunte Culpepper, DET – Assuming he beats out Matthew Stafford, Culpepper moves up due to the additions of Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt at wide receiver. With Calvin Johnson, Culpepper could produce some decent numbers if the offensive line provides enough time for deep plays to develop.
24. Joe Flacco, BAL – The Ravens are going to run and run often. Flacco figures to put up better numbers if he can become a more accurate deep thrower but his potential as a fantasy quarterback is limited by the team’s run-first offensive philosophy.
25. Brady Quinn, CLE – Prospects seemed reasonable prior to the Winslow trade. Now, not so much. Addition of two young wide receivers in Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi might help down the road but not in 2009.
26. Kerry Collins, TEN – Unless the running game struggles, which seems doubtful, Collins won’t have an opportunity to produce big numbers. The addition of Nate Washington provides a deep threat but Collins isn’t likely to be useful for fantasy purposes.
27. Brett Favre, MIN – Ranked 15th in 2008 with more talented receivers and a running back who enjoyed a career year in Thomas Jones. His upside is limited due to his age, the lack of polished wide receivers and due to the team’s emphasis on the running game.
28. JaMarcus Russell, OAK – There have been mixed signals coming out of Oakland regarding his progress and we’re less convinced he will be able to retain the starting position for the whole season with Jeff Garcia breathing down his neck. The team’s major strength is at running back. Oakland might have the weakest group of wide receivers in the league.
29. Shaun Hill, SF – Head coach Mike Singletary made it clear he wants to pound the rock and play defense. The 49ers do sport talented youngsters at wide receiver in second-year player Josh Morgan and 1st round pick Michael Crabtree. Apparently Alex Smith is rejuvenated so there is an outside chance Hill won’t start on opening day.
30. Marc Bulger, STL – An offensive line in flux and the youngest group of top three wide receivers in the league spells potential disaster for Bulger. Don’t buy into predictions of a bounceback season.
31. Luke McCown, TB – McCown is surrounded by decent talent but his accuracy is an issue and likely won’t be starting by midseason. Potential addition of Plaxico Burress would provide a better outlook.
32. Mark Sanchez, NYJ – Hello to the worst current starter in terms of fantasy potential. When the rubber hits the road, you’ll be drafting some backup QB with a high upside ahead of Clemens.
Current backups who could produce if given an opportunity include Sage Rosenfels, Matt Leinart, Chris Simms, Matthew Stafford, Derek Anderson, Kevin Kolb, Alex Smith and Vince Young.
By: Dave Stringer — July 10, 2009 @ 1:29 pm
Prior to the NFL’s rookie draft in April, I provided my running back rankings. The draft provided a number of surprises that have made a profound impact on the rankings. Teams have also made other moves that either directly or indirectly impact the performance of their team’s running backs, not to mention the plethora of news (whether or not much of it is to be believed) that could impact this year’s fantasy football running back rankings.
At the rookie draft, the Colts shocked the league by using their first round pick on running back Donald Brown. The Jets made a stunning move up to the 5th pick in the draft to select QB Mark Sanchez. Despite having signed free agent running backs Lamont Jordan, Correll Buckhalter and J.J. Arrington (since released due to injury), the Broncos used the 12th pick on RB Knowshon Moreno.
The net effect of the draft was that some teams clearly moved to secure the running back position in the future but likely decreased the production of their running backs for 2009. Joseph Addai of the Colts and Brian Westbrook of the Eagles were definitely the best examples of this and to a lesser extent so was Tim Hightower of the Cardinals, although Arizona was expected to take a running back early in the draft due to his lackluster performance as a starter.
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN – No change at the top where the Vikings trade for Sage Rosenfels solidified the quarterback position regardless of whether Brett Favre joins the team as is expected. Over 2,000 total yards shouldn’t be a surprise with an outside shot at that amount in rushing yards.
2. Michael Turner, ATL – He’s good, he’s fast and he wasn’t used much early in his career so his 2008 workload doesn’t figure to impact him in 2009. Nonetheless, with Tony Gonzalez now at tight end and the team expected to increase Jerious Norwood’s workload, expect a reduced number of touches.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC – They waited until the 7th round before selecting a running back (Rashad Jennings) so it’s pretty clear that Jones-Drew will get a heavy workload. With a poor receiving corps, he will get plenty of action in the passing game and figures to post big numbers provided he can stay healthy.
4. Matt Forte, CHI – He gets huge touches and, while not overly talented, he puts up plenty of yards. With Jay Cutler now at quarterback, Forte will get fewer rushing attempts but the hope is that will be offset by a higher yards per carry average and a few more touchdowns.
5. DeAngelo Williams, CAR – The Panthers will run heavily and there is no reason to think the offensive line won’t continue to open up holes. Backup Jonathan Stewart will likely eat some touches but Williams production in 2008 ensures he remains the team’s starter.
6. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD – With a solid cast of skill players on offense and tight end Antonio Gates presumably healthy for a full season, the Chargers will put up plenty of points. Sproles isn’t a threat to take away major rushing touches and the fantasy world has discounted Tomlinson too much despite a very respectable season in 2008 (1,537 total yards and 12 TD’s.
7. Marion Barber, DAL – Would have been in the top 5 without the injuries and the team will rely more heavily on the run with Terrell Owens gone. Even in a time share with Felix Jones, Barber will put up big numbers if he remains healthy.
8. Clinton Portis, WAS – As with Jones-Drew, no effort was made to upgrade in the draft so Portis figures to get plenty of opportunities, and history indicates that he will make the most of them. Only 27, Portis is a player the fantasy world has begun to doubt too early. Expect him to provide great value. Portis was the top fantasy RB in 2008 before injuries struck.
9. Frank Gore, SF – Mike Singletary says they’re going to run and most expect it will happen. The young offensive line should improve and was solidified with the additions of Barry Sims and Marvel Smith. The 9ers picked up Glen Coffee in the 3rd round but Gore should top 1,600 total yards. Touchdowns will determine whether he turns into a true fantasy stud.
10. Brian Westbrook, PHI – It’s worth repeating – still solid but 71% of his production came in just five games which is cause for concern. The Eagles picked up LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round but the fact remains that Westbrook is the team’s go-to guy on offense and continually wracks up a huge percentage of their total yards.
11. Steve Slaton, HOU – The Texans keep saying they want to reduce his workload but the backups are the injury prone Chris Brown and Ryan Moats and the position wasn’t addressed in the draft.
12. Brandon Jacobs, NYG – Likely a top five running back if he could stay healthy and there was a true number one wide receiver. Nonetheless, touches should increase with Derrick Ward’s departure and the offensive line is still solid.
13. Ronnie Brown, MIA – Solid production in 2008 with less than 250 touches. It says here there will be less of a committee approach in 2009. If so, take note of his 991 total yards and five touchdowns in 2007 before being lost for the season in week 7. Plus, he’s in a contract year.
14. Steven Jackson, STL – The second most talented back in the league but he’s injury prone, the offensive line is being rebuilt and the Rams might have the worst group of wide receivers in the league.
15. Chris Johnson, TEN – He’s not half as good as he thinks he is and talks twice as much as he should but I’m trying not to let that cloud my judgment. Proved that size wasn’t an issue but unlikely to see more than the 294 touches he had last year.
16. Ryan Grant, GB – Injuries held him back in 2008 but still managed to top 1,200 yards rushing but was hurt by a low TD total. A few more scores could vault him into the top ten but, for the first time in years, the Packers have some question marks on the offensive line.
17. Kevin Smith, DET – 670 yards rushing and four TD over the last eight games, despite having to face the Jags, Panthers and Vikings. Underrated.
18. Pierre Thomas, NO – Apparently he’s put on some weight and muscle to improve his short yardage performance which was horrible in 2008. Playing in a great offense, Thomas figures to benefit but the Saints’ pass first mentality relegates him to RB2 status.
19. Joseph Addai, IND – Before the draft, a bounce back season and plenty of TD playing for one the league’s best offences seemed reasonable. With Brown now breathing down his neck and Addai’s inability to be a true workhorse back after three years in the league, a timeshare is the only reasonable conclusion. Huge upside but clearly a boom-bust pick.
20. Derrick Ward, TB – New regime in Tampa will hand the reins to their guy with Earnest Graham in reserve. Might not see the short yardage work but should produce running behind young, powerful Bucs offensive line.
21. Darren McFadden, OAK – He will be the starter with Michael Bush in a short yardage role. Lack of TD will hurt him.
22. Reggie Bush, NO – Average PPG last three years – 11, 11, 12 – which squarely puts him in RB2 territory. Unfortunately, he’s missed ten games in two years.
23. Jonathan Stewart, CAR – Plan is to split carries but he will bust out if Williams goes down and gets to assume the starter’s role.
24. Marshawn Lynch, BUF – Solid player who suffers from having to face the Pats, Dolphins and Jets six times each season plus he’s going to miss three games
25. Thomas Jones, NYJ – Huge season in 2008 as opposition defences respected team’s passing attack. However, rookie quarterback, loss of Laveranues Coles and the selection of Shonn Greene in the 3rd round cloud the picture. Jones wants more money but the Jets have refused, meaning they might be ready to reduce his role and plan for Greene and Leon Washington in 2010.
26. Willie Parker, PIT – Parker is productive when healthy and not facing top defenses. The big concern is there are signs his breakaway speed might be gone.
27. Larry Johnson, KC – Johnson is still talented but his career is at a crossroads, and he may need a change of scenery to rekindle his motivation.
28. LenDale White, TEN – Gets a lot of slack but has averaged 10 PPG two years in a row and gets the short yardage work.
29. Jamal Lewis, CLE – It is a bit of a surprise they haven’t tried harder to replace him. Touchdowns will be hard to come by from an offense that failed to score in its last five games in 2008.
30. Julius Jones, SEA – Greg Knapp brings his massive run production to Seattle but lack of TD will hold him back.
31. Fred Jackson, BUF – Averaged 11 touches in 2008 and will get at least three starts with Lynch suspended. Maybe there’s even a remote chance he takes over and never looks back.
32. Chris Wells, ARI – Cardinals 1st round pick could make some noise playing in one of the league’s top offenses provided he wins the starting job and/or gets the goal line work. Wells doesn’t figure to contribute as a receiver.
33. Earnest Graham, TB – Graham’s 2008 season was not as effective as 2007. This rank assumes he will get the goal line touches in Tampa. If not, drop him out of the flex starter range.
34. Cedric Benson, CIN – Not much competition from the draft (Cedric Scott in the 6th round) and he was the team’s only productive back last year. There are plenty of naysayers out there but it’s all about opportunity so he figures to be decent in 2009.
35. Knowshon Moreno, DEN – Moreno is a talented back who could have a solid year but is likely to be in a time share for at least the early part of the season.
36. Ray Rice, BAL – He’s got a real shot to be the team’s starter but won’t get goal line work or the chew up the clock work so his upside is limited.
37. Leon Washington, NYJ – Look for the Jets to get him more involved in 2009.
38. Darren Sproles, SD – Sproles is too small to be a starter, and good luck predicting when he’ll go off.
39. Felix Jones, DAL – Absolutely dynamic when healthy last season and the Cowboys are talking about getting him more involved, including having Marion Barber and Jones in the backfield at the same time.
40. Donald Brown, IND – Reports out of Indy are solid but let’s see how he handles the blitz pick up with the pads on. He won’t play until he can protect the franchise (Peyton Manning).
41. Fred Taylor, NE – Unless the light goes on for Maroney, he’s easily their most talented back. Taylor averaged 5.0 yards per carry in 2006 and 5.4 in 2007 before dropping to 3.9 last year due to Jaguars struggles along the offensive line.
42. Jerious Norwood, ATL – He looks great. Every year we hear about more touches but it never happens.
43. Tim Hightower, ARI – This is a difficult to forecast. Hightower likely won’t start because of his failure in that role last year, but could get goal line looks and will definitely be involved in the passing game. Basically, if he doesn’t get the goal line work, his value is extremely limited.
44. Ricky Williams, MIA – Still has the ability but it says here that Ronnie Brown takes on a more prominent role this year.
45. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT – Boom or bust. Hopefully in 2009, he doesn’t take on Ray Lewis.
46. Le’Ron McClain, BAL – Initially it appeared he would get increased touches in 2009 but the move to fullback, insertion of Ray Rice as the starter and selection of Cedric Peerman figure to reduce his role. Nonetheless, he should get the goal line work.
47. Michael Bush, OAK – His week 17, 177 yard and two TD effort against the Bucs wasn’t a fluke. He produces when given a chance.
48. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG – Bradshaw runs as good or better than Ward but he’s not as good a receiver. The team is high on Danny Ware and rookie 4th round pick Andre Brown, and there is a sneaky suspicion that team doesn’t trust Bradshaw, who is entering the final year of his contract.
49. Glen Coffee, SF – 49ers rookie will get a chance to unseat Michael Robinson as Gore’s backup.
50. Chester Taylor, MIN – Touches decreased from 186 in 2007 to 146 in 2008. Expect another drop in 2009.
51. Sammy Morris, NE – He’ll have a couple of decent games before he gets hurt.
52. Brandon Jackson, GB – Proved in 2008 that he has some ability but is no challenge to Grant as the starter.
53. LeSean McCoy, PHI – It is difficult to tell what his role will be because he’s a very similar back to Westbrook. Presumably he will only play when Westbrook is gassed or injured.
54. Jamaal Charles, KC – A talented, fast back who will be the first option if Johnson is traded, benched, suspended, released, etc. Charles is a decent sleeper candidate.
55. Willis McGahee, BAL – He’s pretty much done in Baltimore unless injuries strike or Ray Rice falters. Let somebody else make this mistake.
56. Maurice Morris, DET – He is what he is. Now he’s the backup in Detroit.
57. Kevin Faulk, NE – Best of luck figuring out when he will have a big game.
58. LaMont Jordan, OAK – Maybe he gets the goal line work, maybe he sits on game day.
59. Mewelde Moore, PIT – Looked better than Willie Parker for much of last year but now he is 3rd on the depth chart.
60. T.J. Duckett, SEA – He’ll get some touchdowns but not much else.
61. Correll Buckhalter, DEN – With Moreno on board, he’s no more than a third down and change of pace back.
62. Greg Jones, JAC – Currently the top backup in Jacksonville. Jones might steal a couple of TD from Jones-Drew.
63. Laurence Maroney, NE – Looks like Tarzan, can play like Tarzan but more brittle than melba toast.
64. Jerome Harrison, CLE – Likely Cleveland’s backup unless 6th round pick James Davis beats him out. Lewis is getting old but there are no indications the Browns are looking to reduce his role.
65. Kolby Smith, KC – Smith could produce if Larry Johnson is traded.
66. Rashad Jennings, JAC – Slid in the draft until the 7th round but reports out of Jacksonville have been positive. Might be 3rd string but is more likely than Greg Jones to assume the lead role if Jones-Drew goes down.
67. Shonn Greene, NYJ – Don’t believe the hype that he’s a threat to steal numerous carries from Jones. More likely, they play him selectively with the best case scenario being him taking the goal line work away from Jones.
By: Dave Stringer — July 2, 2009 @ 10:32 pm
In our last post, we defined a fantasy football bust as a top ranked player who is sinking your team due to their poor performance. If you’ve saddled yourself with a bust, it’s difficult to remain competitive let alone challenge for your league’s championship.
However, obviously one way to counter your bust is to find yourself a sleeper (or better yet more than one). Every year there are players picked at the end of a draft or claimed on the waiver wire who put up surprise performances and reward their fantasy owner. Plus, there are players taken in the third, fourth or later round, or who go for reasonable auction prices but put up monster performances and while they may not be sleepers in the truest sense are key to their owner’s success.
Here are ten fantasy football sleepers or players who will outperform their average draft position for the upcoming season.
QB Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos – If Jay Cutler headlines our fantasy busts at quarterback, then it figures that Orton should be one of our sleepers at the position in 2009. The oft-criticized Orton put up nearly 3,000 yards passing with 18 touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in 15 games with the run oriented Bears in 2008. Now he moves onto Denver where he will lead Josh McDaniels Patriots inspired offense with superior receiving talent at wide receiver and tight end as well as a solid stable of running backs. Orton is as talented as McDaniels’ protégé Matt Cassel and, while he won’t match Cutler’s statistics from 2008, he figures to be a solid backup fantasy quarterback with the potential to sneak into starter status.
QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans – Schaub needs one thing to establish himself as a fantasy football stud – a healthy season. Last year, he was the 7th ranked fantasy quarterback in points per game but started just 11 games. With the Texans returning all eleven starters from an offense that ranked 3rd in yards per game in 2008, Schaub has the potential to ascent to elite status provided he can stay upright for 16 games.
RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins – Brown has had an up and down career and seems to always be on the cusp of something bigger than he’s ever actually delivered. Early in his career, he seemed to be a tad out of shape. In 2007, he was headed to the Pro Bowl before a knee injury ended his season in week 7. Last year, he was in a time share with Ricky Williams. In 2009, he’s in a contract year for a competitive Dolphins team that will rely heavily on the run game and added center Jake Grove in free agency. Throw in reports that he is in outstanding shape and top ten status seems quite likely.
RB Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ward isn’t really big, he isn’t really fast and he’s not always fluid catching the ball. However, he turned that into 1,025 yards rushing on just 182 carries and 384 yard receiving as a backup with the Giants in 2008. This year, he moves to Tampa Bay where he will almost assuredly start ahead of, but be in a platoon situation with, Earnest Graham, running behind a young, powerful offensive line. Last year’s 23rd ranked running back isn’t getting his due in the preseason rankings but he has the potential to be a solid number two running back at a reasonable cost.
RB Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – Smith might not be half as good as he thinks he is but while the rest of your league is scared stiff to take a running back from the 0-16 Lions, you can score a solid backup running back with the potential to be a decent number two. Smith had 975 yards rushing in his rookie season despite getting 10 or fewer carries in six games and starting just 12 games. He also caught 39 passes despite having just 54 targets. The team has added Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt at wide receiver and the massive Brandon Pettigrew at tight end and cannot possibly be as porous on defense as they were in 2008. Add it all up and Smith figures to get more opportunities in 2009 and expect him to make the most of them.
RB Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – Rice put up inconsistent numbers as a rookie in 2008 but that was more a by-product of how the coaching staff used him than how he actually performed. The Ravens have moved LeRon McClain to fullback to fill the void left by the departure of Lorenzo Neal and Willis McGahee has been relegated to backup status due to the combination of the team’s disappointment in his practice habits, his performance in 2008 and offseason knee surgery. While Rice may not see goal line duties, he figures to put up solid numbers and could be especially valuable in PPR leagues given his 33 receptions in limited opportunities last season.
WR Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers – It’s been a long time since fantasy football enthusiasts could look at a 49ers wide receiver and get excited. The dry spell might be over with Crabtree now on the scene. His draft stock seemed to decline dramatically as a result of a slight stress fracture in his left foot. Perhaps it’s more important to focus on his 41 touchdowns in just 26 games in college, his outstanding playmaking ability, his ability to make catches in traffic and the fact he’s motivated to prove he should have been taken higher than the 10th pick in the draft and ahead of fellow wideout Darrius Heyward-Bey. Not to mention that head coach Mike Singletary berated him recently for practicising BEFORE team doctors said he should.
WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams – Avery put up some solid games as a rookie in 2008 but was inconsistent and made numerous errors in his route running. More of a deep threat, Avery managed to record only 54 receptions on 108 targets, hardly awe inspiring numbers. However, the talent is clearly there and so is the opportunity with the departure of Torry Holt. The only issue is whether the light comes on for Avery this year or in 2010. Avery isn’t a candidate to hit the top ten in 2009 but expect him to establish himself as a low-end number two receiver with more upside in the years to come.
WR Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers – More of a super sleeper than breakout candidate, Floyd will likely enter the season as a backup in the high-powered Chargers offense. However, Chris Chambers will be 31 years old when the season starts and is coming off the worst season of his career. Buster Davis, a 2007 1st round pick, is fast approaching bust status. Meanwhile, Floyd caught 27 of 37 targets for 465 yards and four touchdowns in limited opportunities in 2008. At 6’5″ and 225 pounds, Floyd is a big target who has developed a knack for getting open. While he’s not a candidate to bust out in 2009, he’s worth a flyer in deeper leagues and worth monitoring as a potential waiver wire candidate in other leagues.
TE Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears – Olsen has put up solid, if not spectacular numbers over the last two seasons splitting duties with Desmond Clark since the Bears took him with the 31st picked in the 2007 draft. With Jay Cutler on board at quarterback, Clark clearly slipping to backup status and the team having a weak number one wide receiver in Devin Hester and a major question at the other wide receiver position, Olsen figures to get many opportunities to shine in 2009. He has the ability to beat linebackers on short patterns and split the seam on unsuspecting safeties on deep patterns. Look for Olsen to ascend to the tier of tight ends just below Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten and Dallas Clark.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 2:18 pm
If you’ve played Fantasy Football for any length of time, then it’s happened to your team. Saddled with a severely underperforming high draft pick or costly auction player, your team has sunk to the bottom of the standings with little hope of re-emerging short of an outstanding performance on the waiver wire.
When this happens in re-draft leagues, your team is generally finished. When it happens in dynasty leagues, you can try to salvage your season by sacrificing assets from future years but often times you are left making bad trades because your opponents know that you have a huge hole to fill in your line-up.
A fantasy bust can happen for a number of reasons and every year there is plenty of speculation on which players are prime candidates to be a bust in the coming season. Generally, age, injury issues or competition (and thereby opportunity) are the prime reasons for a player adding the bust label to their name. Occasionally, a player just has a down year for fantasy purposes, quite often because of a reduced number of touchdowns.
We’re focused here on players that were top performers in 2008 looking to repeat in 2009, or were top performers in prior years but not in 2008 and expected, by Joe Average fantasy player, to rebound this year. With all due respect to Joe Average, here are ten players that are likely to score fewer fantasy points this year or are unlikely to meet the lofty expectations you’ve surely been reading about.
QB Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – Cutler’s offseason move from the Broncos to the Bears seriously hinders his value as a top fantasy quarterback (see previous comments). With the pass heavy Broncos in 2008, Cutler ranked third in points in most leagues. Basically, the Bears will be more competitive than the Broncos were last year and rely more heavily on the run so Cutler will not throw the ball anywhere close to the 616 times he did last season. Expect 100 or so fewer attempts and Cutler landing somewhere between a low end starter and top backup.
QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys and the rest of the football world found out in 2008 that Romo’s not quite the dominating presence at the quarterback position that they thought him to be. Forced to throw more than in the past, Romo struggled at times despite having a receiving cast of Terrell Owens, Roy Williams and Jason Witten. With Owens being shown the door, the inconsistent Williams will need to step up his game as will the forgotten Patrick Crayton or one of Miles Austin and Sam Hurd. With uncertainties at wide receiver and a stable trio of running backs in Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, look for the Cowboys to be more focused on their running game in 2009.
QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – Ryan had a phenomenal rookie season and figures to build on his success in 2009 with the return of Roddy White and Michael Jenkins as well as the addition of Tony Gonzalez at tight end. However, Ryan is a prime example of an exciting young player who is more valuable in real football than in fantasy football. The Falcons will continue to pound the ball with the one-two running combination of Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. Ryan was fantasy football’s 16th ranked quarterback last season and he figures to move up from there but not significantly. Don’t bite the hype on Ryan.
RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets – Jones will be a 31-year old running back coming off a career season by the time the 2009 season begins. His 241 fantasy points in 2008 were 40 more than his previous high and 67 more than he averaged over the previous four seasons since becoming a starter with the Bears. With Brett Favre and Laveranues Coles leaving and being replaced by Mark Sanchez, Kellen Clemens, Chansi Stuckey, David Clowney and Brad Smith, opponents will focus on stopping the Jets running game in 2009. Expect them to be successful.
RB DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers – Williams was fantasy football’s top running back in 2008, running behind a powerful offensive line. With the Panthers returning all five starters on the offensive line and expecting the same 11 starters on opening day, it would make sense that the team’s top running back would be in line for a repeat performance. However, it’s hard to imagine Williams scoring 20 touchdowns again this year with Jonathan Stewart expected to take on a larger role entering his second season. Williams may end up as a decent number one running back but there is huge risk to taking him as a top five running back.
RB Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Here’s the good – he’s currently the starting running back for an offense that figures to be amongst the league’s best in 2009. Here’s the bad – he’s been injury prone, he just had arthroscopic knee surgery and the team used its 1st round pick on his position (Donald Brown). There have been glowing reports about Brown coming out of Indianapolis this offseason but it remains to be seen how he performs with the pads on especially in blitz protection given the team’s huge reliance on Peyton Manning at quarterback. Addai could have a huge year but he’s the type of player who somebody in your league will gamble on before they should and exactly the type of potential bust who could ruin your season.
WR Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals – Ochocinco is 31 years old and coming off a 540 yard, four touchdown performance, his worst season since his rookie year in 2001. His apologists will argue that Ochocinco suffered with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback last season and that he is ready for a rebound year with Carson Palmer back behind center. That is certainly possible but it’s also possible that Ochocinco is a player who has never honed his craft and he is now at the age where he cannot produce big numbers based on his declining natural abilities. Plus, he has plenty of up and coming wide receivers behind him on the depth chart. He’s high risk/high reward and only worth the risk at the right price.
WR Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneeers – Bryant enjoyed a breakout campaign last season, finishing as the eighth ranked receiver with 1,249 yards and seven touchdowns. However, the combustible Bryant will go from having Jeff Garcia at quarterback to one of Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown or rookie 1st round pick Josh Freeman. The Bucs will likely focus on establishing their running game with a solid one-two punch in Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham running behind a young, powerful offensive line. It’s anyone’s guess how the mercurial Bryant will react if his production diminishes one season after a career year. Buyer beware.
WR Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers – Every year, the NFL playoffs produce surprise performances and Holmes certainly fits the bill as the Super Bowl MVP. Holmes is a burner with big play ability who had an outstanding game in the Super Bowl, he’s heading into just his fourth year in the league and it’s likely that performance combined with his age will result in him being taken in drafts and auctions higher than he should be. Holmes will benefit from the departure of Nate Washington but it’s worth noting that he had only two games of double digit fantasy points in 2008.
WR Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints – Moore had a huge season last year, finishing with 928 yards and a whopping ten touchdowns playing in New Orleans high-powered offense, making him fantasy football’s 12th ranked wide receiver. The problem is that Moore isn’t really all that good and his season was basically the result of a convergence of events unlikely to happen again. The team’s top wide receiver (Marques Colston) missed significant time as did their prized free agent acquisition at tight end (Jeremy Shockey). Their former 1st round pick at wide receiver (Robert Meachem) played well at times but was inconsistent. Their multi-talented running back (Reggie Bush) also suffered an injury and their old, reliable power running back (Deuce McAllister) finally broke down. And so they turned to their not very big, not very fast former undrafted free agent wide receiver. In the six games that Bush missed, Moore averaged 15.5 points per game. In the other ten games, Moore averaged six points per game. In the five games in which Colson, Bush and Moore all played, Moore averaged 3.3 points per game. Remember that when you decide to overpay for Moore.
By: Dave Stringer — June 23, 2009 @ 10:41 am
The NFL has suspended Browns wide receiver Donte Stallworth after his plea bargain with Miami prosecutors for his role in the death of a married father of a 15-year old girl. Stallworth struck and killed Mario Reyes while driving under the influence early in the morning and plead guilty to DUI manslaughter last week. The plea agreement was heavily criticized because it called for only 30 days in jail as well as financial compensation for Reyes’ family, in addition to a lengthy period of probation, a lifetime driving suspension and two years of house arrest.
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell suspended Stallworth indefinitely but indications are that Stallworth will face a lengthy suspension. Goodell used strong language throughout his press release, leaving little doubt where the league stands on these types of situations and that Stallworth’s punishment from the league will be severe.
Goodell commented that Stallworth’s actions were “inexcusable” and “caused irreparable harm to the victim and his family, your club, your fellow players and the NFL.” He also stated that Stallworth’s conduct “plainly violates the Personal Conduct and Substances of Abuse policies” and that “there is ample evidence to warrant significant discipline under both policies.” Finally, Goodell stated that “all NFL employees recognize that alcohol-related violations of the law will not be tolerated.”
The league has come down hard on repeat offenders of the league’s Personal Conduct policies. Former Cowboys cornerback Adam Jones received a six game suspension after receiving an indefinite suspension for his numerous legal issues. Bengals wide receiver Chris Henry faced an eight game ban for repeated violations of the law and Rams defensive end Leonard Little faced an eight-game ban after he struck and killed a Missouri woman while driving under the influence. Little was suspended in 1999 at a time when the league was more lenient regarding suspensions for violations of the law.
Based on Goodell’s efforts to strengthen the league Personal Conduct policies, his previous suspension decisions and Little’s eight-game suspension in 1999, a 12-game ban seems very likely with an outside chance that Stallworth is suspended for the entire 2009 season.
Fantasy Football Impact
It is worth noting that since Stallworth’s arrest, the Browns have signed free agent wide receivers David Patten and Mike Furrey and used 2nd round draft picks on Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi. With Braylon Edwards clearly established as the team’s top wide receiver, standout returner Josh Cribbs occupying a roster spot at wide receiver and the Browns unlikely to give up on 2007 7th round pick Syndric Steptoe, Stallworth does not appear to be in the team’s plans for 2009.
In fact, it is likely that he remains on the team’s roster only because releasing him would result in a $7.6-million salary cap charge. With a salary of under $1-million for 2009, there is a strong possibility the team will pay a pro-rated portion of his salary for the year (and likely request he not attend at the team’s facilities) rather than release him. This exact scenario played out in the Falcons decision to retain Michael Vick on their roster for 2008. In addition, if the CBA is not extended and 2010 is an uncapped year, the team can release Stallworth in 2010 with no cap charge.
In essence, it appears the Browns have given up on Stallworth and if he plays in 2009, which seems unlikely, it will be with another team, requiring him to learn a team’s playbook in short order. If the Browns have given up on him, then you should too in your fantasy league.
By: Dave Stringer — June 17, 2009 @ 11:00 am
After Brett Favre’s appearance on Joe Buck Live, there can be little doubt of his intentions regarding the 2009 season. During the course of his appearance on the show, Favre told Buck the following:
- he plans on playing in 2009 provided his arm is healthy,
- the Vikings are the only team he has had discussions with,
- he has received advice from Vikings trainers on how to rehabilitate his arm,
- he chose not to sign with the Vikings earlier and attend their organized team activities, and
- the team is a perfect fit for him.
Based on that, it’s fair to conclude that the only thing that would prevent Favre from suiting up with the Vikings in 2009 would be if his bicep does not recover from his recent surgery.
Fantasy Football Impact
There are always two issues with acquiring a player for your fantasy league – production and value. Favre has generally been a solid fantasy performer and that was the case in 2008 with one important caveat. His 2008 production can be broken down into two categories – pre- and post-bicep injury.
Over the first 11 games of the season, Favre was averaging 15.2 points per game. His points per game were reduced dramatically over the season’s final five games of which only one was against a solid defense (Miami), going down to 9.8. In New York, Favre was surrounded by a solid offensive line, career seasons from the team’s two running backs (Thomas Jones and Leon Washington), two solid wide receivers in Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery and a solid rookie tight end in Dustin Keller.
With the Vikings, Favre would benefit from a solid offensive line, albeit one in transition at the centre and right tackle positions. The team also has fantasy football’s number one performer in Adrian Peterson and his solid backup, Chester Taylor. Bernard Berrian is a solid deep threat and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe is coming off a career season. In addition, Bobby Wade is a solid slot receiver plus Sidney Rice and rookie 1st round pick Percy Harvin have intriguing potential.
In summary, the Vikings are quite similar to the Jets on offense with a better pair of running backs and a group of wide receivers without the history of production of Coles and Cotchery but with decent upside.
That being said, the biggest issue with Favre is that he is always drafted before he should be or his auction cost is more than it should be. With one more year on his resume and no solid number two receiver, he ranks as a low end backup fantasy quarterback who has little chance of putting up top ten fantasy stats.
« Newer Posts — Older Posts »
| |
|
Powered by
WordPress |
|
|
