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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — June 16, 2009 @ 1:16 pm
In a move that that should surprise no one, Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall has reportedly requested a trade. The talented wide receiver, who stands to earn $2 million in 2009, has been unhappy with his contract situation and took his issue up with team owner Pat Bowlen in a meeting and then packed up and headed out of Denver.
Marshall is obviously a key component in the Denver offense and he brings prototypical wide receiver ability to the team’s passing game. Big, strong and fast, Marshall has the physical ability to be a Hall of Fame wide receiver. Unfortunately, for all his physical ability, he brings very little to the table in terms of maturity and his mental capacity.
Basically, Marshall is asking the Broncos to reward him with a long term contract extension with average salaries of $10 to $12 million per year despite the fact that he is coming off hip surgery in March and refused to perform his rehabilitation in Denver, despite his numerous run-ins with the law, despite his questionable character and decision-making skills, despite his receiving a one-game suspension in 2008, despite the fact he has outstanding legal issues that could result in another, more lengthy suspension.
Or the team can let him play this year for $2 million, see if he continues to produce and stay out of trouble and then enter into negotiations on a long-term deal near the end of the season knowing that Marshall will be a restricted free agent, provided 2010 is an uncapped year. In this situation, leverage exists solely with the team and not the player.
Marshall clearly does not understand the business side of the NFL or he is getting very poor advice from his agents and advisers or some combination of the two. Nonetheless, he is attempting to force the team’s hand knowing that they caved in to the demands of quarterback Jay Cutler and may be unwilling to enter the season with an unhappy star wide receiver in a holdout situation. Plus, by going public, he reduced the team’s ability to receive fair value in a trade.
Add it all up and it’s another in a long line of puzzling and questionable decisions or actions on Marshall’s part.
Fantasy Football Impact
Marshall is the most talented player in the Broncos offense so his availability and production impact every skill position player on the team. Eddie Royal is not likely to be nearly as productive if he receives extra attention from opposing defensive backs. Ditto for tight end Tony Scheffler. The team’s running backs will face more eight man fronts if Marshall isn’t in the line-up and quarterback Kyle Orton will lose his best security blanket and deep ball threat. The team signed wide receiver Brandon Lloyd to provide depth at wide receiver and ostensibly help replace Marshall if he holds out or is traded but he’s never reached his potential and never will.
As for Marshall, unless this situation is resolved peacefully before training camp and his hip proves to be unhealthy, he has become a much more risky player in fantasy leagues. Although he is extremely talented and has the potential to be a top five wide receiver even with Orton at quarterback, the question marks are beginning to add up. At this point, with contract issues, injury issues and quarterback issues, he ranks as a number two wide receiver but with a big upside. Buyer beware.
By: Dave Stringer — April 4, 2009 @ 9:52 pm
The Giants finally decided to move on without Plaxico Burress. With the troubled wide receiver’s legal issues not going to be sufficiently resolved prior to the draft, the team decided they could no longer wait to decide his fate.
Burress has been a major piece of the Giants offense since signing with the team as a free agent prior to the 2005 season after five years with the Steelers. His monster season in 2007 helped propel the team to a Super Bowl championship.
The obvious assumption from this move is that the Giants will make a run at one of Braylon Edwards, Anquan Boldin or Chad Johnson. However, such a move would not be consistent with the overall philosophy of general manager Jerry Reese, who has used free agency to bring in marginally priced veterans to plug holes. A more likely option would be the team bringing back Amani Toomer or signing former Ram Torry Holt and also addressing the position in the draft.
Look for the Giants to take a receiver in the 1st or 2nd round of this year’s draft. They currently have one pick in the 1st round in addition to two picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. If a receiver starts falling, they have the ammunition to move up to get them.
Fantasy Football Impact
Quarterback Eli Manning obviously suffers with the loss of his number one receiver but the numbers suggest Burress’ absence could be overstated. The assumption that Manning’s production suffered with Burress out of the line-up was more fantasy myth than fact. He averaged roughly 14 points per game with Burress in the line-up or on the sideline. However, Manning did benefit from having four games against the NFC West in 2008 when he averaged over 20 points per game against teams from that division. Perhaps that is indicative of his ranking as a fantasy quarterback. With or without Burress, Manning is a solid backup on your fantasy roster.
Wide receivers Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, Mario Manningham and Sinorice Moss figure to benefit from Burress’ departure as well as tight end Kevin Boss. Boss figures to benefit the most as he now becomes the team’s top receiving target in the red zone. Smith seems best suited as a number two or three receiver while Manningham is likely the only receiver currently on the roster with the potential to develop into a top wideout. Hixon has flashed some big play ability but does not seem capable of filling in as a number one receiver.
Barring a trade for Edwards, Boldin or Johnson, look for the team to rely on its running game more in 2009. However, the team struggled to score with Burress out of the lineup so the touchdown count for Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw and Danny Ware might suffer with this move. Jacobs remains a solid number two fantasy option but a breakout season now seems less likely.
By: Dave Stringer — April 3, 2009 @ 7:57 am
The NFL saw its first blockbuster trade in years yesterday when the Broncos dealt quarterback Jay Cutler and a 2009 5th round pick to the Bears for Kyle Orton, 1st round picks in 2009 and 2010 and a 3rd round pick in 2009. The Bears were forced to deal significant assets in order to acquire Cutler due to the demand for his services from teams such as the Jets, Bucs and possibly the Redskins.
Chicago obtains a player who becomes their best quarterback since Erik Kramer in the mid-1990’s and most recognized name at the position since Jim McMahon nearly 25 years ago. His presence immediately ignites a Bears offense that struggled at times in 2008 but still managed to average over 23 points per game. Cutler is a talented quarterback already ranking amongst the league’s best players at the position. However the Bears clearly overpaid to acquire his services. It says here that Bears general manager Jerry Angelo paid the price of a Hall of Famer but only got a potential Hall of Famer in return.
It’s worth noting that the Broncos actually scored fewer points than the Bears in 2008.
The Broncos offense clearly suffers in the short term as a result of this trade but the team likely wins in the long term provided they can turn their draft pick bounty into solid players on the defensive side and perhaps a new franchise quarterback. Embattled rookie head coach Jay McDaniels escapes the wrath of the Broncos faithful only because Angelo’s previous ineptness at acquiring a solid quarterback in many ways forced his hand.
Not to be lost in the days news was the Bears acquisition of former Rams Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Pace. Only a week ago the Bears were in a mess at the tackle position but Pace’s signing and that of Kevin Shaffer solidifies the team’s depth at the position. Pace will remain on the left side while Shaffer will battle with 2008 1st round pick Chris Williams to start at right tackle.
Fantasy Football Impact
Chicago Bears
The biggest winners in this trade from a fantasy perspective are Bears wide receiver Devin Hester and tight end Greg Olsen. Hester is clearly the team’s most talented receiver and is capable of making the big plays that Cutler’s strong throwing arm provides. Olsen also vaults up the rankings at tight end with an outside chance of landing in the top five. Olsen averaged 10 yards per reception last year while Broncos tight end Tony Scheffler averaged over 16 yards per reception.
Whoever ends up winning the battle to start opposite Hester also comes out on top in this deal. The list of candidates includes Earl Bennett and Rashied Davis. Keep in mind that Bennett played with Cutler at Vanderbilt so he may have a head start on winning this battle due to his familiarity with Cutler.
With the team now lacking draft picks, any other wide receiver acquisitions will come through free agency. Bears coach Lovie Smith has a history with former Rams wideout Torry Holt and he would clearly provide a major upgrade at the position.
Cutler’s the big loser in this deal and falls out of the top five in the quarterback rankings, perhaps all the way down to the 10th spot. His weapons are greatly diminished and he moves to an offense that relies far more on the run and short passing game than Denver likely will under McDaniels.
Running back Matt Forte likely benefits due to increased touchdown opportunities and his rushing yardage outlook isn’t affected due to the counterbalancing effects of Cutler and Pace. Overall, his ranking remains in the top 10 but he moves closer to the top five.
Denver Broncos
If Cutler’s the big loser then it stands to reason that Kyle Orton is the big fantasy winner albeit with a rather large caveat. Orton picks up outstanding weapons in wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal as well as tight end Tony Scheffler, provided he isn’t traded as has been rumored. Orton ranked as a decent fantasy backup in 2008 but moves into low end starter territory with his move to Denver. Here’s the caveat – how long is he the starter? If the team takes a quarterback in the 1st round, Orton might find himself on the bench midway through 2009.
Marshall is the Broncos biggest fantasy loser with this trade given that a large portion of his production came from Cutler’s long passes and risky throws to him in traffic. Simply put, Orton will make far fewer of those throws than Cutler would have. Royal and Scheffler don’t likely see much of a drop in value given that Orton will frequently check down and both players figure to be featured in the short passing game.
The team’s running backs likely suffer but realistically none of them were going to be relied on from a fantasy perspective, at least until one of them emerged during the season, if that even occurs at all.
By: Dave Stringer — March 30, 2009 @ 1:05 pm
The NFL rookie draft has taken on a larger than life persona over the past 20 years as fans and pundits attempt to decipher the positional needs of their team and other teams and weed through the information and misinformation that each team supplies. Basically, it’s an exercise in futility to try to figure what is real and what is fake.
Nonetheless, mock drafts are great fun for a number of reasons. First off, they are great for finding out who are the most knowledgeable columnists, and it’s not based on their ability to predict which team takes what player. Occasionally, a mock will have a team taking a player and the reasoning will defy logic. A quarterback to the Browns when they have two? A 295-pound nose tackle going to a team that employs a 3-4?
Secondly, it’s an opportunity for discovering perspectives different from your own. The Chargers taking a running back in the 1st round when they re-signed LaDainian Tomlinson and franchised Darren Sproles?
Finally, watching players rise and fall is simply a fascinating experience when they have had up to four years to showcase their ability ON THE FIELD. Chris Wells looks like a surefire top five pick then runs a slow 40 at the combine only to run a much better 40 a few shorts weeks later. Where else can you find such theatre of the absurd? On to my own mock draft. Mocking comments welcome.
- Detroit – OT Jason Smith – Let’s give new coach Jim Schwartz the top tackle in terms of run/pass blocking skills. If they can run, Daunte Culpepper can throw it up top.
- St. Louis Rams – OT Eugene Monroe – They would love LB Aaron Curry but a combination of Alex Barron and Jacob Bell at tackle isn’t very inspiring.
- Kansas City Chiefs – LB Aaron Curry – New GM Scott Pioli gets to pick between Curry and DT B.J. Raji and goes with the multi-faceted linebacker who also happens to be the safest pick in the draft.
- Seattle Seahawks – QB Matthew Stafford – They would prefer an offensive tackle when faced with the choice of Stafford and Raji, and go with the quarterback due to Matt Hasselbeck’s age (34 in September) and off-season additions of Colin Cole and Cory Redding.
- Cleveland Browns – LB Brian Orakpo – Desperate for pass rushing help, team goes for the player with perhaps the most pass rushing potential as an outside linebacker in the 3-4.
- Cincinnati Bengals – DT B.J. Raji – Team gets a steal as the draft falls their way for once. Coach Marvin Lewis can’t turn down the draft’s best defensive tackle to add depth to the team’s lacklustre defensive line talent.
- Oakland Raiders – WR Michael Crabtree – Raiders have perhaps the worst wide receiver depth chart in the league so this one is a no-brainer.
- Jacksonville Jaguars – OT Michael Oher – They would love Smith, Monroe or Raji but are forced to reach a little for Oher.
- Green Bay Packers – OLB Everette Brown – Moving to the 3-4 and are desperate for a DE with size or a pass rushing OLB. Brown offers more upside than any of the draft’s large DE’s so he’s the pick.
- San Francisco 49ers – CB Malcolm Jenkins – Walt Harris isn’t getting any younger and Shawntae Spencer’s days may be numbered due to a knee injury last year and $3.5-million cap charge despite his backup status.
- Buffalo Bills – LB Rey Maualuga – Would love a pass rushing DE but value is at LB and Paul Posluszny has the ability to move outside to accommodate Maualuga at MLB.
- Denver Broncos – LB Brian Cushing – Team needs help at every position on defense so they go with the best defender left on the board.
- Washington Redskins – OT Andre Smith – Team needs help at DE and OLB but always goes with veterans on the defensive line and no OLB is worth this pick so they gamble on Smith and attempt to get younger on the offensive line.
- New Orleans Saints – RB Chris Wells – Have addressed many defensive needs in free agency so they get a big back to team with Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, who struggle in short yardage.
- Houston Texans – OLB Aaron Maybin – They need a pass rushing threat at OLB to take some heat off Mario Williams and Maybin fits the bill.
- San Diego Chargers – S Louis Delmas – Team wasn’t pleased with the play of Clinton Hart last year and doesn’t currently have a player to challenge him. Running back is a possibility but they have Tomlinson, Sproles and Michael Bennett to handle that role in 2009.
- New York Jets – QB Mark Sanchez – Jets go with a young QB in an attempt to replicate the 2008 Ravens who featured a tough defense and a young passer.
- Chicago Bears – WR Jeremy Maclin – The wide receiver needy Bears breathe a sigh of relief the equally needy Jets pass on Maclin.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB Josh Freeman – Luke McCown isn’t the answer and Freeman might not be either but the Bucs gamble on him anyway.
- Detroit Lions – DT Peria Jerry – Lions continue to build in the trenches and take the second best DT in the draft.
- Philadelphia Eagles – RB Knowshon Moreno – Team goes with Brian Westbrook’s eventual replacement and fills a hole created with Correll Buckhalter’s departure.
- Minnesota Vikings – OT Eben Britton – Ryan Cook and Artis Hicks aren’t the answer so the team goes with Britton, who started on the right side until his final year in college.
- New England Patriots – OLB Larry English – Pats go with a prospect who can help out in pass rushing capacity in 2009.
- Atlanta Falcons – CB Vontae Davis – Falcons attempt to replace Dominique Foxworth and provide some competition for Chevis Jackson.
- Miami Dolphins – DT Ron Brace – They need help at CB and would like another pass rushing OLB but the value isn’t there so they go with the draft’s best 3-4 nose tackle.
- Baltimore Ravens – WR Darius Heyward-Bey – Could go CB but with Derrick Mason on his last legs and Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams too inconsistent, they go with Heyward-Bey.
- Indianapolis Colts – DT Evander Hood – Keyunta Dawson and Antonio Johnson combo needs upgrading and the Colts get lucky that Hood falls to them.
- Philadelphia Eagles – TE Brandon Pettigrew – Eagles add another piece to help their woeful short yardage game and team with Brent Celek. OT William Beatty also makes sense here.
- New York Giants – WR Kenny Britt – Barring a trade, the Giants need help at WR and Britt has too much potential to pass up at this spot.
- Tennessee Titans – CB Alphonso Smith – They would like to address MLB and defensive line but Smith offers too much value and fills a need with Chris Carr’s departure.
- Arizona Cardinals – DE Michael Johnson – Everybody has them taking a RB here but they go for Johnson who has the potential to replace and be more effective than Antonio Smith.
- Pittsburgh Steelers – C Alex Mack – Steelers long tradition of outstanding centers has been interrupted by the mediocre play of Sean Mahan in 2007 and Justin Hartwig in 2008.
By: Dave Stringer — March 27, 2009 @ 8:45 am
The Bears, who recently lost projected starting right tackle John St. Clair to the Browns, signed former Brown right tackle Kevin Shaffer to a reported three-year contract. The teams have essentially swapped right tackles with the Browns ending up with the better player for their system.
Nonetheless, the signing is a key one for the Bears because of the implications it has for the organization in this year’s rookie draft. With only the untested Frank Omiyale as an option at right tackle prior to Shaffer’s signing, the team would practically have been forced to use a high draft pick on an offensive tackle one year after selecting left tackle Chris Williams in the first round.
Fantasy Football Impact
The Bears first option was obviously re-signing St. Clair but this move fills a huge hole for the team, potentially allowing them to use their first round pick at the wide receiver position where they are desperate for depth. This is a solid fallback option and the journeyman Shaffer figures to provide better run and pass blocking than a rookie would. Matt Forte and Kyle Orton’s prospects look a little better today.
By: Dave Stringer — March 25, 2009 @ 12:38 pm
Last year was certainly an odd year for running backs in fantasy football. The theme was breakout players and struggling superstars with a number of major surprises amongst the top ten fantasy performers.
Leading the way was DeAngelo Williams of the Panthers, a player who had failed to beat out journeyman DeShaun Foster two years in a row and who hadn’t topped 750 yards rushing. No surprise then that he went off for 1,639 total yards and 20 touchdowns. Michael Turner of the Falcons certainly looked talented as LaDainian Tomlinson’s backup in San Diego but few would have predicted that he could become fantasy football’s second rated running back.
Rookies also surprised with Matt Forte of the Bears and Steve Slaton of the Texans cracking the top ten and Chris Johnson of the Titans just missing at number eleven, despite not playing in week 17. Jets veteran Thomas Jones also enjoyed a career season at age 30 with over 1,500 total yards and 15 touchdowns.
The surprises on the downside included the Cowboys’ Marion Barber, Joseph Addai of the Colts, Steven Jackson of the Rams, Frank Gore of the 49ers and the Chiefs’ Larry Johnson. Injuries explained a major part of the underperformance in each case. Each of these players would have cost an early pick or major auction dollars but handcuffs wouldn’t have helped much except in Dallas where Tashard Choice, the second handcuff behind first handcuff Felix Jones, performed well.
- Adrian Peterson – Trade for Sage Rosenfels should make Peterson’s life easier and he figures to top 2,000 total yards in 2009.
- Michael Turner – 2008 wasn’t a fluke but team will want to reduce number of touches from 379.
- Marion Barber – Would have been top 5 without the injuries and team will rely more heavily on the run with Terrell Owens gone.
- DeAngelo Williams – Panthers will run heavily and no reason why offensive line won’t continue to open the holes.
- LaDainian Tomlinson – 1,537 total yards and 12 TD’s is an off year? Sproles isn’t a threat to take over as the number one.
- Maurice Jones-Drew – Finally gets to be a true number one but value hurt by ridiculously poor receiving core.
- Joseph Addai – Look for a bounce back season and plenty of TD’s.
- Frank Gore – Mike Singletary says they’re going to run and, if healthy, Gore’s going to top 1,600 total yards.
- Matt Forte – Not overly talented but heady player gets huge touches and makes the most of them.
- Brian Westbrook – Still solid but 71% of his production came in just five games which is cause for concern.
- Clinton Portis – Top fantasy performer before injuries slowed him down. At just 27, stories of his demise are greatly exaggerated.
- Steve Slaton – Almost assuredly will see touches reduced as team wants a big back for short yardage work.
- Brandon Jacobs – Top five if he could ever stay healthy. Touches should increase with Derrick Ward’s departure.
- Steven Jackson – Second most talented back in the league but no help from the offensive line or the passing game.
- Chris Johnson – Proved that size wasn’t an issue but unlikely to see more than the 294 touches he had last year.
- Ronnie Brown – Solid production in 2008 with less than 250 touches. Says here there will be less of a committee approach in 2009.
- Ryan Grant – Struggled with nagging injuries but still managed to top 1,200 yards rushing. Was hurt by low TD total.
- Thomas Jones – Wants more money. Jets might want more Leon Washington.
- Kevin Smith – 670 yards rushing and four TD’s over the last eight games, despite having to face the Jags, Panthers and Vikings.
- Marshawn Lynch – Solid player who suffers from having to face the Pats, Dolphins and Jets six times each season.
- Derrick Ward – New regime in Tampa will hand the reins to their guy with Earnest Graham in reserve. Might not see the short yardage work.
- Reggie Bush – Average PPG last three years – 11, 11 , 12. He’s missed ten games in two years.
- Jonathan Stewart – Plan is to split carries but will bust out if Williams goes down.
- Pierre Thomas – He takes over Deuce McAllister’s role full-time and gets increased touches when Reggie Bush is out.
- Darren McFadden – He will be the starter with Michael Bush in a short yardage role. Lack of TD’s will hurt him.
- Willie Parker – Productive when healthy and not facing top defenses. Breakaway speed might be gone.
- Larry Johnson – Still talented but needs a change of scenery to rekindle motivation.
- LeRon McClain – He epitomizes what the Ravens want in a back more than Willis McGahee. Expect increased touches in 2009.
- LenDale White – Gets a lot of slack but has averaged 10 PPG two years in a row and gets the short yardage work.
- Earnest Graham – Not as effective as in 2007 and rank assumes he will get the goal line touches in Tampa.
- Tim Hightower – Looked great as a backup but lost as a starter. Not convinced Arizona will commit to the run.
- Jamal Lewis – Bit of a surprise they haven’t tried harder to replace him. TD’s will be hard to come by.
- Julius Jones – Greg Knapp brings his massive run production to Seattle but lack of TD’s will hold him back.
- Cedric Benson – Only productive Bengal back in 2008 but likely gets some competition in the draft.
- Leon Washington – Look for the Jets to get him more involved in 2009.
- Willis McGahee – What a waste. Expect this to be his last year in Baltimore.
- Darren Sproles – Too small to be a starter, good luck predicting when he’ll go off.
- Felix Jones – Absolutely dynamic when healthy last season. Dallas has to give him 8-10 touches a game.
- Fred Jackson – Averaged 11 touches in 2008 and will get between two and four starts with Lynch suspended.
- Fred Taylor – Unless the light goes on for Maroney, he’s easily their most talented back.
- Jerious Norwood – He looks great. Every year we hear about more touches but it never happens.
- Ricky Williams – Skills are still there if Brown were to go down.
- Michael Bush – Week 17, 177 yard, two TD effort against the Bucs wasn’t a fluke. He produces when given a chance.
- Chester Taylor – Touches decreased from 186 in 2007 to 146 in 2008. Expect another drop in 2009.
- Rashard Mendenhall – Boom or bust. Hopefully in 2009, he doesn’t take on Ray Lewis.
- Correll Buckhalter – Least talented starting back in the league and Denver won’t run as much as in prior years.
- Sammy Morris – He’ll have a couple of decent games before he gets hurt.
- Ray Rice – Looks good but lost in the shuffle in Baltimore.
- Ahmad Bradshaw – Runs as good or better than Ward but not as good as a receiver.
- Jamaal Charles – Talented back who will be the first option if Johnson is traded.
- Mewelde Moore – Looked better than Parker for much of last year but now 3rd on the depth chart.
- Maurice Morris – He is what he is. Now he’s the backup in Detroit.
- Brandon Jackson – Proved in 2008 that he had some ability but no challenge to Grant as the starter.
- Kevin Faulk – Best of luck figuring out when he will have a big game.
- Laurence Maroney – Looks like Tarzan, can play like Tarzan but more brittle than melba toast.
- Jerome Harrison – Cleveland’s only backup and Lewis is getting old.
- T.J. Duckett – He’ll get some TD’s but not much else.
- Kolby Smith – Could produce if Johnson is traded.
- Greg Jones – Currently the top backup in Jacksonville.
- LaMont Jordan – Buckhalter is unlikely to last 16 games.
By: Dave Stringer — March 24, 2009 @ 12:06 pm
In 2008, tight ends basically were grouped in five different tiers. In the top tier, there was one player and that was Tony Gonzalez of the Chiefs with over 1,000 yards receiving and ten touchdowns.
The second tier consisted of the Cowboys’ Jason Witten, Dallas Clark of the Colts and Antonio Gates of the Chargers. Each of these players was held back by injury at some point in the season or else they might have joined Gonzalez in the top tier.
That was followed up the threesome of Visanthe Shiancoe (Vikings), Owen Daniels (Texans) and rookie John Carlson of the Seahawks. Shiancoe and Daniels enjoyed career seasons while Carlson benefitted from the injury issues Seattle had at wide receiver.
The next tier included Greg Olsen, Anthony Fasano, Zach Miller, Chris Cooley and Tony Scheffler. Cooley was a bit of a disappointment and Fasano was a revelation although he was very inconsistent. Olsen, Miller and Scheffler were all young players who continued their ascension up the tight end ranks.
After that, it was a cast of disappointments like Kellen Winslow and Heath Miller or players with mediocre skills or who weren’t quite ready for prime time like Kevin Boss.
With the top tight ends significantly outscoring those in the third and fourth tiers, it is position worth using a reasonably high draft pick or auction dollars on. The top four or five tight ends figure to outscore players below them significantly in 2009 so they are worth spending resources on to secure their services in your fantasy starting line-up. Just don’t go overboard in doing so.
- Jason Witten – Five total points in games without Tony Romo plus Terrell Owens is gone.
- Dallas Clark – Could have huge year if his red zone targets increase.
- Tony Gonzalez – Hard to see him duplicating his 2008 performance.
- Antonio Gates – Averaged over 120 targets between 2004-2007, only 92 in 2008.
- Owen Daniels – 862 yards in 2008 with only two TDs, but that should increase in 2009.
- Kellen Winslow – QB issues in Tampa but should rebound from an off year in 2008.
- Chris Cooley – Elite status not likely given poor 2nd half performance by the Washington offense.
- Greg Olsen – This should be the year he relegates Desmond Clark to the bench.
- John Carlson – Targets should be down with T.J. Houshmandzadeh signing, and a healthy Deion Branch and Nate Burleson.
- Tony Scheffler – Could be higher but what team will he be on in 2009?
- Visanthe Shiancoe – Don’t expect seven TD’s in 2009.
- Zach Miller – Bad offense in Oakland holds him back.
- Kevin Boss – Giant offense might be without Plaxico Burress but replacement is likely.
- Dustin Keller – Expect lots of catches but few TD’s unless the QB situation changes.
- Heath Miller – Better prospects in 2009 with Nate Washington gone but still a fantasy backup.
- Brent Celek – Could be in for a big year but plenty of options in Philly.
- Jeremy Shockey – Just a bit part in the New Orleans offense.
- Bo Scaife – Solid receiving tight end but doesn’t get enough targets.
- Vernon Davis – Doesn’t taste as good as it looks in the wrapper.
- Randy McMichael – Torry Holt is gone and remaining receivers are young.
- Anthony Fasano – Boom or bust and unlikely to get seven TDs in 2009.
- David Martin – Decent player playing part-time.
- Benjamin Watson – See Vernon Davis.
- Donald Lee – Solid in 2007 but an afterthought in 2008.
- Todd Heap – More of a blocker now and will split time with L.J. Smith.
- Jerramy Stevens – Decent option given his skills and Winslow’s injury history.
- Martellus Bennett – Talented player could produce with Owens gone and better understanding of the playbook.
- L.J. Smith – See Todd Heap.
- Marcedes Lewis – The light hasn’t gone on yet, and it is unlikely to now.
- Billy Miller – Solid producer when Shockey was out of the lineup in 2008.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 7:44 am
Despite starting every game for the Dolphins during his first two years in the league, Samson Satele was traded to the Raiders. The writing has been on the wall for Satele over the last few weeks, when comments from general manager Bill Parcells surfaced that he wasn’t pleased with the center’s ability to handle the mammoth nose tackles employed by the Patriots (Vince Wilfork) and Jets (Kris Jenkins). And, as everybody knows, once the Big Tuna decides you’re not cutting it, it’s time to pack your bags.
Satele’s release continues Parcells dramatic roster turnover of the Dolphins as he brings in players that fit the description of what he wants at each position, which generally means bigger is better. The former 2nd round pick was well regarded by the previous regime of Randy Mueller and Cam Cameron but wasn’t as big or as physical as Parcells prefers his offensive linemen to be. For reference sake, consider the Cowboys massive offensive line prior to Parcells leaving Dallas.
The Raiders thought enough of Satele to move their 6th round pick in this years draft to the Dolphins and also swap 4th rounders, which allows Miami to move up 18 spots in that round. Nonetheless, this trade shapes up as a decent one for Oakland considering they acquire a former 2nd round pick with two years of starting experience who fits their scheme well and who carries the league minimum salaries over the final two years of his rookie contract.
Fantasy Football Impact
The Raiders have struggled to find a center for a number of years going through Barret Robbins, Adam Treu, Jake Grove, Jeremy Newberry and John Wade. It would be a major surprise if Satele isn’t the team’s starter on opening day and he figures to provide stability at the position for the next two years.
The team still needs to solidify a starting offensive line that currently lists starters from left to right as Khalif Barnes, Robert Gallery, Satele, Cooper Carlisle and Cornell Green. Green’s roster spot is in jeopardy courtesy of domestic battery charges coupled with the team’s acquisition of Barnes and former Broncos right tackle Erik Pears in free agency. With 2007 3rd round pick Mario Henderson also in the mix at tackle, this unit figures to improve on its performance in 2008. That would bode well for the impressive running back trio of Darren McFadden, Michael Bush and Justin Fargas.
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