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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — March 23, 2009 @ 9:15 pm
Desperate for help at wide receiver, the Browns brought David Patten back into the fold in an effort to shore up depth at the position. With Donte Stallworth’s availability in doubt given his pending legal issues, Patten’s signing provides insurance at the position and also increases the likelihood of the team releasing Stallworth and perhaps moving Braylon Edwards in a trade.
Productive in 2007 with 54 receptions for 792 yards and three touchdowns, Patten was relegated to a backup role last year. He was inactive for 11 of the New Orleans Saints’ last 12 games due to the emergence of Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem.
Patten’s main role in Cleveland figures to be that of a backup and mentor to the team’s young receivers, particularly the enigmatic Edwards, who has been linked in trade rumors involving the Giants.
Fantasy Football Impact
Patten still possesses deep speed but can’t be expected to hold up as a productive starter for 16 games. However, he can show young wideouts like Edwards, Josh Cribbs and 2008 7th round pick Syndric Steptoe how to be professional and productive in the league.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 12:15 pm
With teams now focused on the owners meetings and draft preparations well underway, free agents signings have slowed to a crawl and there has been little football news to relay, in particular with much of a fantasy football impact. Therefore, lets fill the void with my initial 2009 fantasy football rankings, kicking off with the quarterback position. These are re-draft league rankings, and certainly subject to change by the time July, August and September roll around, but they make for some dandy discussion right now.
In standard scoring leagues last summer, quarterbacks took the top two positions, six of the top eight, seven of the top ten and ten of the top 20 positions. What does this mean? It means that this position is typically going to be overvalued in all leagues but particularly so in ten team leagues. In leagues with twelve or more teams, then you probably don’t want to be the last person holding the bag before drafting your starting QB. Probably.
In general, with so many quarterbacks scoring so well in standard formats, there is no need to draft one too high or overpay for one in your auction.
- Drew Brees – With a healthy Reggie Bush and more experience for the teams young receivers, Brees gets the nod at top spot.
- Aaron Rodgers – Ryan Grant should be better and the team returns its top four receivers, all talented receivers to boot.
- Philip Rivers – A full year of a healthy Antonio Gates will help make Rivers even more prolific.
- Tom Brady – He’s back and so are Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The knee remains a concern.
- Kurt Warner – The Cards return its offensive nucleus and should add offensive line and running back talent in the draft.
- Peyton Manning – A year older and no proven talent at backup wide receiver.
- Jay Cutler – Key pieces return on offense but drama with the new head coach could be an issue
- Tony Romo – Terrell Owens departure leaves the team thin at receiver but a healthy Marion Barber would nearly even that out.
- Matt Schaub – Perfect candidate to vault into the top five if he could ever manage to play 16 games.
- Donovan McNabb – Underrated every year, but could suffer this season if a decent left tackle isn’t found in the draft or free agency.
- Matt Hasselbeck – Injury issues and age are red flags, but T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and John Carlson form a solid nucleus of receivers.
- Chad Pennington – Enjoyed a solid season in 2008 despite lack of talent at wide receiver. Benefits from no late season bad weather in Miami.
- Carson Palmer – With no Houshmandzadeh, an offensive line in flux and Cedric Benson as the current starter at running back, Palmer has a lot of forces working against him.
- Jason Campbell – This might be Campell’s last chance to put it together. He is going to need contributions from the youngsters Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.
- Eli Manning – A perennial fantasy underachiever, who averaged less than 10 points per game without Plaxico Burress.
- Ben Roethlisberger – Average, steady production. Doesn’t need to throw a lot of passes with his defense and loses his top deep threat in Nate Washington.
- David Garrard – Had surprisingly strong season totals in 2008 thanks to the rushing yards. The team’s current wideouts are a major cause for concern.
- Matt Cassel – Could (better) match Tyler Thigpen’s production provided Tony Gonzalez, Larry Johnson and Brian Waters aren’t traded.
- Trent Edwards – Finally gets a 2nd option at receiver and one big enough to move the chains (Terrell Owens, in case you missed the memo).
- Matt Ryan – A sophomore slump is unlikely but the Falcons are a running team.
- Joe Flacco – Ditto Ryan.
- Kyle Orton – He is what he is, receivers are what they are. It’s mediocrity everywhere and Frank Omiyale at right tackle.
- Jake Delhomme – His receivers are a year older and his running backs are a year better. More ground and pound from the Panthers.
- Brady Quinn – Prospects seemed reasonable prior to the Winslow trade. Now, not so much.
- JaMarcus Russell – The team’s major strength is at running back. Russell’s wide receivers are just awful.
- Shaun Hill – Head coach Mike Singletary made it clear he wants to pound the rock and play defense. Youngster Josh Morgan is not exactly a number one receiver, yet.
- Kerry Collins – Unless the running game struggles, which seems doubtful, Collins won’t have an opportunity to produce big numbers.
- Sage Rosenfels – His upside is limited with the team’s emphasis on the running game.
- Marc Bulger – An offensive line in flux and the youngest group of top three wide receivers in the league spells potential disaster.
- Luke McCown – Surrounded by decent talent but his accuracy is an issue.
- Daunte Culpepper – One receiver, albeit a potentially great one, a decent running game and below average offensive line. Discount for the Lions factor.
- Kellen Clemens – Hello to the worst current starter in terms of fantasy potential. When the rubber hits the road, you’ll be drafting some backup QB with a high upside ahead of Clemens.
Current backups who could produce if given an opportunity include Matt Leinart, Chris Simms, Vince Young, Derek Anderson, Kevin Kolb, Alex Smith and Tarvaris Jackson.
By: Dave Stringer — March 20, 2009 @ 8:18 pm
The Eagles and fullback Leonard Weaver finally agreed to contract terms, ending the former Seahawks first foray in free agency. Plenty of teams were interested in the multi-dimensional player but it appears, as is generally the case with fullbacks around the league, no teams were willing to sacrifice much salary cap space on the position. ESPN is reporting the deal is for one year and $1.75-million with the opportunity to earn additional $750,000 in incentives.
Weaver’s skills are perfectly suited as a fullback in the West Coast offense but it remains to be seen whether Eagles head coach Andy Reid will utilize Weaver in a meaningful way. With the Seahawks, Weaver was employed as a receiver out of the backfield and as a runner and blocker in short yardage.
The Eagles struggled mightily in short yardage last season and Weaver figures to help out in that area. However, Reid’s preference is to run three wide receiver sets so Weaver’s role in the base offense will likely be to spell Brian Westbrook and contribute in short yardage as a blocker for Westbrook and running behind incumbent fullbacks Dan Klecko and Kyle Eckel, provided they are on the team’s roster come opening day. Although Weaver isn’t a dominant blocker, he’s certainly serviceable and provides a better combination of agility and power than any player the team employed in that role in 2008.
Weaver’s presence on the roster also provides the team additional flexibility on draft day given the many roles he can play. The team doesn’t necessarily have to use picks on both the running back and tight end positions, given Weaver’s running skills and usefulness as a check down option in the passing game.
Fantasy Football Impact
With the team returning Westbrook and its top five wide receivers in DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, Hank Baskett, Jason Avant and Reggie Brown and tight end Brent Celek a solid option as a receiving tight end, it is almost impossible to imagine Weaver getting more than a handful of touches per game. If Westbrook continues to struggle in short yardage, Weaver could vulture some rushing touchdowns but even that is difficult to imagine.
Nonetheless, Westbrook will be 30 by the time the season starts and he does have an injury history. With the only other backup option being the underwhelming Lorenzo Booker, Weaver figures to be in the mix as Westbrook’s handcuff in 2009 provided the team doesn’t expend a first day draft pick on the position in the draft.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 12:32 pm
The Ravens signed former Eagles tight end L.J. Smith this week to a one-year contract reportedly worth $1.5-million. Smith had visited the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons but couldn’t agree to terms with either team despite their obvious needs at the position.
The 2003 2nd round pick has solid receiving skills but never truly developed the way the Eagles expected he would. In six seasons, he has topped 600 yards only twice and has been injury prone over the last two seasons. He had 37 receptions for 298 yards and three scores in 2008 but lost his starting position by season’s end to Brent Celek.
Baltimore benefits from Smith’s inability to secure a long term deal and picks up a veteran backup for Todd Heap, who has had his own injury issues over the last few seasons and was ineffective in 2008, despite not missing a game.
Fantasy Football Impact
All indications are that Heap and Smith will share the tight end workload in Baltimore. In anything other than deep leagues, knock both Heap and Smith off your draft list. The tight end’s main role in the Baltimore offense is to block so even without Smith’s signing, Heap would barely crack the top 20. Unless one of the two suffers an injury in the preseason, both players are waiver wire fodder for fantasy purposes in 2009.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 7:38 am
Reports this week indicated that the Panthers were in trade discussions with the Patriots involving franchised defensive end Julius Peppers. Peppers has made public his desire to play for a new franchise in 2009, preferably one that employs a 3-4 defense which would allow him to line up as a pass rushing outside linebacker.
The theory was the Patriots could use his services in their 3-4, they have an extra 2nd round pick courtesy of the Matt Cassel trade and the Panthers need the additional cap space that moving Peppers and his $16.7-million 2009 salary would provide. Connect the dots and voilà, Peppers to the Pats.
Unfortunately, there a number of hiccups with this scenario. First off, Peppers has not signed his franchise tender. This has two implications – only players under contract can be traded and teams are not allowed to discuss trades for players that are not under contract.
Second and more importantly, the Panthers are not about to accept a below market offer for Peppers, particularly when their fan base is aware of the price the Vikings paid last year to obtain Jared Allen from the Chiefs. Minnesota gave up their 1st round pick (17th overall) and two 3rd round picks to obain Allen. It is even arguable that Peppers is more talented than Allen, although Allen plays with a higher motor, is more consistent and has posted better sack totals over the past two years (30.5 sacks for Allen to 17 for Peppers). It would be difficult for Panthers management to argue that Peppers’ value is the same as Cassel which is essentially what such a trade would suggest.
Finally, the Panthers don’t have a replacement on their roster for Peppers and don’t have a 1st round pick this year to help them in this regard. The Panthers traded their 2009 1st round pick to the Eagles last year in order to select offensive tackle Jeff Otah. Charles Johnson had the second most sacks on the team last year with six but is not in the same class as Peppers and would likely see his sack total decrease without Peppers lining up opposite of him.
By: Dave Stringer — March 18, 2009 @ 12:17 pm
The Cleveland Browns signed free agent offensive tackle John St. Clair to a three year contract reportedly worth up to $9-million. The Browns recently released starting right tackle Kevin Shaffer, restructured Ryan Tucker’s contract to the veterans minimum and signed former Seahawks lineman Floyd Womack.
St. Clair manned the left tackle position last year for the Chicago Bears but is a versatile lineman capable of filling in at any position along the offensive line except for center. Look for him to start at right tackle for the Browns in 2009. He is a journeyman, and better at run blocking than in pass protection.
Fantasy Football Impact
Cleveland Browns
Shaffer was a former left tackle forced to play on the right side after the team acquired Joe Thomas in the 2007 draft. He is not a physical player and it appears the team wanted a more physical presence at the postion. St. Clair will provide that but this isn’t a move that provides a significant upgrade for the team. This move will have minimal impact on a Browns team that struggled offensively in 2008, failing to score an offensive touchdown the final 6 weeks of the season, and traded away tight end Kellen Winslow. Currently the team does not possess a proven receiving tight end, quality third receiver or a solid option to incumbent starting running back Jamal Lewis. Throw in starting wide receiver Donte Stallworth’s legal problems and the Browns look like a fantasy mess heading into 2009.
Chicago Bears
Leave it to Bears general manager Jerry Angelo to blow another veteran personnel decision. With John Tait’s retirement and St. Clair’s free agent defection, the team’s current starting offensive tackles figure to be 2008 1st round pick Chris Williams and former Falcon and Panther Frank Omiyale, who have combined to start one game in the NFL. With an aging Olin Kreutz at center and journeymen guards in Roberto Garza, Josh Beekman and Dan Buenning, the interior of the team’s offensive line is not equipped to make up for deficiencies at tackle.
The Bears will have to address their offensive line but there is little talent left in the free agent market so the team may have to use an early draft pick in this area and start another young player in 2009. This doesn’t bode well for running back Matt Forte replicating his rookie performance or for Kyle Orton progresssing at quarterback.
By: Dave Stringer — March 16, 2009 @ 11:48 am
Matt Jones’ troubled career with the Jacksonville Jaguars is apparently over with several reports indicating the team will release their former 1st round selection. A poor work ethic, conflict with head coach Jack Del Rio and a 2008 arrest for drug possession weren’t enough for the Jaguars to part with Jones but apparently a second arrest, this time for violating terms of his plea agreement, pushed the team over the edge.
New general manager Gene Smith has indicated that character will be much more of a focus in terms of personnel decisions and this was his first major test in this area. The club chose not to re-sign left tackle Khalif Barnes due to on and off the field issues and also jettisoned problem child wide receiver Jerry Porter despite the salary cap consequences of releasing a major free agent signing only one year into their contract.
However, with Porter off the roster and the team also not offering a contract to free agent receiver Reggie Williams, the team was dangerously thin at wide receiver prior to Jones’ release. Clearly, Smith felt a message had to be delivered even at the expense of the team’s depth at wide receiver.
Fantasy Football Impact
The current projected starters at wide receiver are now Dennis Northcutt and Mike Walker and the top reserve is Troy Williamson. Northcutt is best when used in the slot and would be a quality third receiver on a team with a solid passing attack. Walker has upside but has yet to make his mark, although he did post a 100-yard game last season. Williamson was a bust with the Vikings and only posted five receptions for 30 yards in his first season in Jacksonville.
Look for the team to address the position in the draft. Although they could take a wide receiver with the 8th pick in the draft, that seems unlikely. They will likely also attempt to acquire a veteran receiver and recently released Torry Holt would provide quality veteran leadership and decent production. With the Tennessee Titans also interested in Holt, it would shape up as an interesting AFC South dynamic if the Jaguars also showed interest in the former Ram.
Finally, quality fantasy football quarterbacks always have at least one talented wide receiver and the Jaguars do not currently have a potential 1,000 yard receiver on the roster or a quality receiving tight end for that matter. This doesn’t bode well for David Garrard. And running games are much easier to stop when defenses don’t have to be concerned with a team’s weapons at wide receiver so this development also hurts Maurice Jones-Drew’s prospects for 2009 as well.
By: Dave Stringer — March 14, 2009 @ 7:04 am
With the release of wide receiver Torry Holt, the St. Louis Rams continue to purge their roster of veteran players. Holt follows fellow veterans Orlando Pace, Trent Green, Drew Bennett, Corey Chavous, Anthony Becht and Brett Romberg out the door.
The moves are a deliberate attempt by the new general manager and head coach tandem of Billy Devaney and Steve Spagnuolo to increase the team’s salary cap flexibility while at the same time creating opportunities for younger players on the roster.
Reports indicate the Rams gained roughly $14-million in salary space with the departures of Holt and Pace. Look for the team to use that extra room for mid-level free agent signings and to sign the team’s draft picks.
Fantasy Football Impact
For the Rams, Holt’s release thrusts Donnie Avery into the role as the team’s number one receiver. The first wide receiver taken in last year’s draft, Avery displayed a knack for making big plays but also committed numerous rookie mistakes by running poor routes, missing hot reads and running the wrong way. He is clearly a talented player but will need help at the other wide receiver position. Simpy put, if defenses game plan to shut him down, they will be successful. Keenan Burton (last year’s 4th round pick) and Derek Stanley are currently the top candidates to start opposite Avery but the position will be addressed in the draft and possibly with a veteran player. The Seahawks Bobby Engram would fit in nicely in St. Louis as a veteran mentor and slot receiver.
Look for Holt to find a new home and a good opportunity in short order. Other than former Ram teammate Isaac Bruce, Holt has to be considered among the least tempermental star receivers in the league over the last decade. He dropped from being a perennial top ten fantasy wide receiver last year but that was more a result of fewer opportunities, playing in a poor offense with an underperforming quarterback and, perhaps even he would admit, a lack of motivation. Nonetheless, although he has clearly lost a step in terms of deep speed, stories of his demise are greatly exaggerated. His yards per catch has dropped every year since 2004 but was still a respectable 12.4 in 2008. By comparison, T.J. Houshmanzadeh’s was 9.8 this year. It says here that Holt still has the ability to be a productive number two wide receiver on a good team. Contending teams needing help at wide receiver include the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, Jets, Titans and maybe the Ravens if they decide not to meet Derrick Mason’s renegotiation demands.
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