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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — July 8, 2013 @ 12:56 am
QB Joe Flacco
(2012 QB Rank – #15, 18.7 FPts/G)
While Flacco may have added Super Bowl winning starting quarterback to his resume during the 2012 season, he has been a bit of a fantasy football tease over the past several seasons. Breakout seasons have been predicted for him but that has failed to materialize with Flacco failing to top 4,000 passing yards during his five-year career and managing a career-high 25 passing touchdowns back in 2010. With Anquan Boldin now in San Francisco and his spot being taken over by Jacoby Jones and an assortment of middling prospects, Flacco isn’t headed towards that elusive breakout season in 2013. While he had a wonderful playoff run under the tutelage of Jim Caldwell, who took over for Cam Cameron with three games left in the regular season, you would have to be wearing rose colored glasses to take him as your QB1. Given the lack of receiving weapons in Baltimore, Flacco is a mid-tier QB2 this season.
 Rice ranks #2 in consistency among RBs over the last two years. RB Ray Rice
(2012 RB Rank – #6, 13.9 FPts/G; #4 PPR, 17.7 FPts/G)
Despite having topped 2,000 total yards twice in four seasons with the Ravens and having never missed a game during that span, Rice’s fantasy value is taking a hit in 2013. That is because of the emergence of his backup, Bernard Pierce. Pierce had a healthy 115 touches as a rookie in 2012, including 77 in the Ravens last six games (counting the team’s four playoff appearances). While Rice may not be a candidate to be a top five fantasy back or to top 2,000 yards this season, he does has a very high floor. Last season, he totaled 1,143 rushing yards and 478 receiving yards while scoring a total of ten touchdowns and with question marks at wide receiver, he should approach that production once again in 2013. That would translate into mid-tier RB1 production, not to mention a very safe option given his lack of injury history.
RB Bernard Pierce
(2012 RB Rank – #50, 4.3 FPts/G; #58 PPR, 4.7 FPts/G)
The knock on Pierce coming out of Temple as a 3rd round pick in 2012 was that, despite having good size at 6’0” and 218 pounds, he too often avoided contact and that he couldn’t stay healthy. Becoming a Raven apparently changed all that. Pierce was a force as a rookie, gaining 532 yards and scoring once on 108 touches as he muscled a decent number of opportunities away from one of the league’s top running backs (Ray Rice). Pierce put a stranglehold on the backup running back position in Baltimore and off-season whispers were that he could carve out a larger role in 2013 provided he improves as a receiver and pass protector. Consider Pierce a mid-tier RB4, a must have handcuff to Rice and a potential flex option in 12-team leagues in 2012. We also like his dynasty potential.
RB Anthony Allen
(2012 RB Rank – #113, 2.2 FPts/G; #118 PPR, 2.6 FPts/G)
While the Ravens may be fond of Allen, their 2011 7th round pick, he lost the battle to Bernard Pierce to be the team’s backup running back in 2012 and let’s just say that Pierce has an iron grip on that job. One thing Pierce did prove is that the Ravens are willing to lighten Ray Rice’s workload provided there is a competent backup in place and that means that Allen has some value if either Rice or Pierce were to miss extended time. He is a 230-pound bowling ball who could be productive in short yardage situations if given an opportunity.
WR Torrey Smith
(2012 WR Rank – #23, 8.4 FPts/G; #28 PPR, 11.5 FPts/G)
It didn’t take Smith long to emerge as the 2011 2nd round pick out of Maryland hauled in 50 of his 95 targets for 841 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie. That put him on the map for a true breakout season in 2012 but that failed to materialize as he caught just 49 of his 110 targets for 855 yards and eight touchdowns. Blessed with blazing speed, the 6’0”, 205 pound Smith takes over in 2013 as the Ravens lead receiver with Anquan Boldin having left town. It remains to be seen whether that will cure Smith of the maddening inconsistency that has been a hallmark of his first two years in the league (16 games with five or fewer fantasy points). Given his size, there are serious concerns about his ability to be a consistent threat on intermediate routes but the upcoming season should provide answers given that the next most talented wide receiver on the roster is Jacoby Jones. That should translate into plenty of targets for Smith. Consider him a mid-tier WR2 with upside.
WR Jacoby Jones
(2012 WR Rank – #86, 3.0 FPts/G; #84 PPR, 4.8 FPts/G)
If Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome had played fantasy football for a few seasons, you can bet your bottom dollar that he wouldn’t have allowed Jones to enter the season as the Ravens starter for the departed Anquan Boldin. Jones has top end athletic ability and outstanding speed but he has never proven to be a consistent threat as a receiver during his six-year career. He had a career-year with Houston in 2010, catching 51 passes for 562 yards and three touchdowns. His athletic ability may hint at the potential for a breakout season but his 2010 production is more likely what fantasy owners can expect in 2013. Considering there is a chance that the Ravens may limit his reps on offense in order to keep him fresh as a returner, Jones is waiver wire material in most leagues and it won’t be a surprise if he lost his starting spot at some point in 2013.
WR Tommy Streeter
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
Streeter, a 2012 6th round pick, is a physical beast at 6’5”, 219 pounds and capable of running a 4.40 40-yard dash. Unfortunately, he missed all of his rookie season with a sprained foot and if that seems a little odd, it is because we can safely conclude that the Ravens used that training camp injury as an opportunity to stash the raw Streeter on injured reserve. The University of Miami product is one of a cast of thousands fighting to become the Ravens lead backup receiver in 2013. Provided he wins that role, he is worth stashing on your dynasty roster given Jacoby Jones’ limitations as a starting receiver.
WR Deonte Thompson
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
A 2012 undrafted free agent out of Florida, Thompson appeared in three games as a rookie, hauling in five of his six targets for 51 yards. The 6’0”, 200 pound speedster, who has been timed at under 4.3 in the 40-yard dash, will battle Tommy Streeter, Tandon Doss, David Reed and rookie 7th round pick Aaron Mellette for a spot on the Ravens depth chart at wide receiver in 2013. While offseason reports indicate that the Ravens are high on Thompson, he will need to have an impressive preseason to lock down the lead backup role behind starters Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones. If he does that, he is worth grabbing for your dynasty roster.
WR Tandon Doss
(2012 WR Rank – #132, 2.3 FPts/G; #137 PPR, 3.2 FPts/G)
Doss, the Ravens 2011 4th round pick, has done precious little as a receiver during his first two years in the league, failing to catch a pass as a rookie and hauling in just seven of his 17 targets for 123 yards and a score last season. While offseason reports indicate that Doss ran as the team’s third receiver, it won’t be a surprise if he is relegated to a special teams role in 2013 given the superior upside of his competition for a roster spot.
WR David Reed
(2012 WR Rank – #153, 6.9 FPts/G; #152 PPR, 5.8 FPts/G)
In three seasons, the Ravens 2010 5th round pick has hauled in five receptions for 66 yards – all of it in 2012. Why is this guy even worthy of a player outlook, you are asking? Well, it’s not like the Ravens have a proven backup amongst their wide receiver depth chart other than Jacoby Jones but Jones is penciled in to start. That opens the door a tiny crack for Reed to emerge.
TE Dennis Pitta
(2012 WR Rank – #7, 6.8 FPts/G; #8 PPR, 10.6 FPts/G)
It took the Ravens a while but in 2012 they finally figured out that Pitta should be their preferred option as a receiving tight end ahead of the higher drafted Ed Dickson. While Pitta is hardly the athletic marvel that some of the league’s top tight ends are, he had a solid season as a secondary receiving option, hauling in 61 of his 94 targets for 669 yards and seven touchdowns – all career highs. With Anquan Boldin in San Francisco and the Ravens starting a pair of speedsters at wide receiver in Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones, look for Pitta to do the heavy lifting on short and intermediate routes and that should lessen the inconsistent usage he had last season. With his target count almost assuredly to rise, Pitta ranks at the upper tier of the second wave of fantasy tight ends with very good upside.
TE Ed Dickson
(2012 WR Rank – #49, 2.0 FPts/G; #48 PPR, 4.0 FPts/G)
If there is any hope for Dickson’s fantasy prospects in 2013, it is that the team will move to using two-tight end sets as their base formation. Otherwise, it is pretty clear that Dickson has been usurped by Dennis Pitta as the Ravens main receiving weapon at tight end. After a solid 2011 season with 54 receptions for 528 yards and five touchdowns replacing Todd Heap, Dickson crashed landed in 2012, seeing his production plummet to 21 receptions for 225 yards and no touchdowns. He is best left on the waiver wire in 2013 redraft leagues but could be worthy of a roster spot in larger dynasty leagues given his talent level.
By: Dave Stringer — July 5, 2013 @ 11:00 am
QB Ben Roethlisberger
(2012 QB Rank – #21, 21.3 FPts/G)
 Roethlisberger: On the decline? With Big Ben, the question is which story do you believe? Is he the 31-year-old entrenched superstar coming off a superb season in which he threw for 3,265 yards with 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions in only 13 games? The one who would have put up even greater numbers if not for three missed games, subpar play along the offensive line, Mike Wallace’s holdout and Antonio Brown’s injury issues? Or is he the declining veteran who has failed to play all 16 games since the 2008 season and who figures to struggle in 2013, given Wallace’s departure and tight end Heath Miller’s questionable health as he returns from a torn ACL suffered late last season? While Roethlisberger figures to benefit from having a year of experience in offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s offense, there is no denying that the team has major issues at wide receiver and tight end, and an improved depth chart at running back. Pittsburgh’s talent level would seem to dictate a more balanced run/pass ratio in 2013, and that doesn’t bode well for Roethlisberger’s fantasy prospects. While he has been rated as a lower-tier QB1 or upper-tier QB2 for several seasons, he enters 2013 as a lower-tier QB2 because of his injury issues and the question marks among his receiving core.
RB Le’Veon Bell
(2012 RB Rank – N/A)
With Rashard Mendenhall having played and talked his way out of Pittsburgh and Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer having failed to prove themselves worthy of handling the lead running back role, the Steelers chose Michigan State’s Le’Veon Bell in the second round of this year’s draft. The 6’1”, 244-pound Bell had a productive collegiate career, excelling both as a rusher and a receiver with the Spartans. Although he has solid size, the knock on Bell in college was that he too often tried to dance his way around defenders rather than just running over them. He will need to correct that to succeed in the NFL given his lack of ideal speed. However, there is no denying that Pittsburgh was an ideal landing spot for Bell because of their propensity for relying on large running backs that can move the pile, and their lack of talent on the depth chart at running back. Bell should land the starting spot on opening day and, given the young talent on the offensive line and the question marks among the receivers, he should be considered an upper-tier RB2 in 2013.
RB Isaac Redman
(2012 RB Rank – #44, 5.5 FPts/G; #44 PPR, 6.9 FPts/G)
Much like Jonathan Dwyer, Redman failed to make the most of a solid opportunity in 2012. After looking like a potential starter while backing up Rashard Mendenhall in 2011, Redman spent 2012 proving that he wasn’t worthy of fulfilling that role. With rookie Le’Veon Bell tabbed to start, Redman will need to fend off Dwyer to earn the backup role. Given his superior pass-catching and blocking ability, look for Redman to earn that job; but his 2012 production makes him one of the league’s lower-rated handcuffs. His yards per carry dropped to 3.7 and he managed just two touchdowns despite his solid size. Consider Redman a RB4 or RB5 in 2013.
RB Jonathan Dwyer
(2012 RB Rank – #40, 6.5 FPts/G; #40 PPR, 7.9 FPts/G)
After earning just 25 carries in his first two seasons, Dwyer, the Steelers sixth-round pick in 2010, opened 2012 in a timeshare with Isaac Redman while Rashard Mendenhall recovered from a torn ACL. That move failed to pay off for the Steelers as Dwyer continued to confound the organization with his inconsistency. While he looked the part at times, he failed to lock down a starting position and the organization used a second-round pick to acquire Le’Veon Bell in the 2013 draft. With reports indicating that the Steelers were looking to trade Dwyer, it’s clear his roster spot is in jeopardy. He will need to beat out former Cardinal LaRod Stephens-Howling—provided he isn’t traded before opening day.
RB LaRod Stephens-Howling
(2012 RB Rank – #46, 6.5 FPts/G; #47 PPR, 6.2 FPts/G)
After they jettisoned scatback Chris Rainey, the Steelers signed Stephens-Howling to provide receiving depth out of the backfield. In his four years in the desert, Stephens-Howling provided a few big plays but failed to earn consistent playing time. He’s not big enough to be a successful inside runner and his 17 receptions in 2012 were a career-high. There’s no upside here, folks.
WR Antonio Brown
(2012 WR Rank – #37, 8.5 FPts/G; #32 PPR, 13.6 FPts/G)
Forced to deal with a tight salary cap situation, the Steelers chose to let Mike Wallace sign with the Dolphins, thereby elevating Antonio Brown to their lead receiving position despite his struggles during the 2012 season. Their decision to sign Brown to a lucrative contract extension when they had not yet done the same for the more talented Wallace could be a decision the team regrets for years to come. In Brown the Steelers have a 5’10”, 186-pound receiver who excels in running intermediate routes and can gain yards after the catch but lacks Wallace’s deep speed. After a breakout season with 1,108 receiving yards in 2011, Brown’s production plunged this past season, as he hauled in just 66 receptions for 787 yards and five touchdowns. That isn’t the type of production most teams expect from their lead receiver, although a high ankle sprain did cause Brown to miss three games and likely hindered his play in several others. Looking forward to 2013, Brown’s production will be impacted by the extra attention he will receive from opposing defenses and his ability to outplay the league’s top cornerbacks. He shapes up as a lower-tier WR2.
WR Emmanuel Sanders
(2012 WR Rank – #64, 4.3 FPts/G; #66 PPR, 7.1 FPts/G)
After three largely lackluster seasons, Sanders will move into the Steelers starting lineup for the first time. The 2010 third-round pick will take over for the departed Mike Wallace, and Pittsburgh is hoping his deep speed can deliver some big plays and keep opposing defenses from stacking the box on early downs. While Sanders has the speed, he lacks ideal size at 5’11” and 180 pounds and has scored just five touchdowns in his career. His best season came in 2012 as he was healthy for all 16 games for the first time and set career highs in receptions (44) and yards (626) while finding the end zone once. The Steelers are hoping he can build on that production as his targets take a leap upward from the 74 he had last season. The opportunity is there for Sanders, but it feels like it found him more than he found it. Consider him a lower-tier WR4 in 2013.
WR Markus Wheaton
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
Having failed to re-sign starting wide receiver Mike Wallace, the Steelers used a third-round pick to acquire Wheaton, the 5’11”, 182-pound Oregon State product who is expected to open the season backing up Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Wheaton has outstanding speed and the ability to make defenders miss, making him an excellent fit in offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s passing attack. To earn playing time as a rookie, Wheaton will need to unseat a pair of veterans in Plaxico Burress and Jerricho Cotchery. While that may not happen by opening day, look for Wheaton to become the team’s top backup by midseason—although Burress will likely fill that role in the red zone, provided he makes the team. While Wheaton isn’t worth owning in redraft formats, he is an excellent dynasty league prospect given that Sanders is working on a one-year contract.
WR Plaxico Burress
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
If there is one thing that Randy Moss’s 2012 comeback with San Francisco taught us, it’s that aging wide receivers that have missed extensive time don’t produce. While Burress may earn some red zone time and snag a few touchdowns, he has very little fantasy value in 2013.
TE Heath Miller
(2012 WR Rank – #4, 8.6 FPts/G; #4 PPR, 13.4 FPts/G)
After a pair of middling seasons in 2010 and 2011, Miller appeared to be a spent force entering 2012. However, at age 29, he proved his doubters wrong by having the best season of his eight-year career. Miller had career highs in yards (816) and touchdowns (8) while hauling in 71 receptions, the second highest total of his career. While that production would generally make for a mid-tier TE1, Miller suffered a torn ACL two days before Christmas and is unlikely to be ready for opening day. A spot on the PUP is possible, perhaps even likely, and it may take him much of 2013 to get back to where he was last season, if it happens at all. The truth is that Miller is only worth owning in larger leagues as a TE2 or TE3. He might be worth stashing on your roster in dynasty formats if the price is right.
By: Dave Stringer — July 3, 2013 @ 10:18 am
QB Andy Dalton
(2012 QB Rank – #12, 20.5 FPts/G)
The truth of the matter is that during his two years in the league, Dalton has proven to be a much better player in real football terms than as a fantasy player. With two straight trips to the postseason under his leadership, the Bengals can’t be disappointed with having used a second-round pick to acquire the Texas Christian product in the 2011 draft. The question is whether he is ready to make a fantasy leap forward in 2013. Comments from the team’s management and coaching staff clearly indicate they want Dalton to take more chances this season in hopes of propelling the team deeper into the postseason (they have lost in the wild card round in each of their playoff appearances). With the superlative A.J. Green at wide receiver, as well as numerous young players that could emerge, a pair of pass-catching tight ends, and a new pass-catching option at running back in rookie second-round pick Giovani Bernard, Dalton has plenty of options to throw to. Include one of the league’s better offensive lines, and it’s clear that Dalton is surrounded by plenty of talent in Cincinnati. We’re just going to have to see it happen before we draft him as a QB1. Consider Dalton a mid-tier QB2 with upside in 2013.
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis
(2012 RB Rank – #19, 10.4 FPts/G; #22 PPR, 11.9 FPts/G)
Having moved on from Cedric Benson, the Bengals signed BenJarvus Green-Ellis prior to the 2012 season and he had a solid first season in Cincinnati. Green-Ellis topped 1,000 rushing yards for the second time in his five-year career, finishing with 1,094 yards and six touchdowns. He doesn’t offer much wiggle as a rusher and also lacks top-end speed, but he gets what is blocked and rarely fumbles (the two fumbles he had in 2012 were the first two of his career). Given Green-Ellis’s limitations, it was no surprise when the Bengals used a second-round pick on Giovani Bernard, but his acquisition didn’t torpedo Green-Ellis’s fantasy value since they are completely different runners. Look for Green-Ellis to retain his starting role but see his touches drop to the 250 range from the 300 he had last year. That should be good enough for him to finish 2013 as a mid-tier RB3.
RB Giovani Bernard
(2012 RB Rank – N/A)
Lacking playmaking speed out of the backfield, the Bengals used the 37th pick in the 2013 draft on Giovani Bernard, making him the first running back taken. The 5’10”, 205-pound North Carolina product is expected to open the season working as a change-of-pace back and as the team’s main receiving weapon out of the backfield. However, BenJarvus Green-Ellis’s limitations are well known, so Bernard figures to have an opportunity to earn an increased role as the season progresses. For that to happen, Bernard will need to avoid turning the ball over and become a more physical runner between the tackles. Look for him to earn a bigger split of the work in the Bengals backfield as the season progresses but to remain in a complimentary role to Green-Ellis for all of 2013. That makes him a great flex option with upside as a low-end RB3.
RB Bernard Scott
(2012 RB Rank – #135, 1.8 FPts/G; #139 PPR, 1.8 FPts/G)
During the 2012 offseason, the Bengals signed free agent running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis from the New England Patriots. During the 2013 offseason, Cincinnati used a second-round pick to acquire North Carolina speedster Giovani Bernard. Do you think the writing is on the wall for Scott? After four largely non-descript seasons in Cincinnati and a 2012 season in which injuries forced him to miss 14 games, Scott was forced to re-sign with the Bengals after failing to receive a decent offer from one of the league’s other 31 teams. He will battle Cedric Peerman and sixth-round pick Rex Burkhead for a roster spot in 2013.
RB Cedric Peerman
(2012 RB Rank – #69, 4.0 FPts/G; #72 PPR, 4.9 FPts/G)
Peerman has kicked around the league for the last four seasons, contributing mostly on special teams. While he has looked good in preseason contests, he failed to earn much playing time until last season when he stepped in for an injured Bernard Scott to back up BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He was surprisingly solid, gaining 258 yards and a touchdown on just 36 carries while averaging 7.2 yards per carry. He also caught all nine of his targets for another 85 yards. While Peerman isn’t worth drafting, there is an outside chance he could emerge as a flex option if starter Green-Ellis were lost to injury.
RB Rex Burkhead
(2012 RB Rank – N/A)
While Burkhead lacks the athleticism to emerge as a starting running back, the Nebraska product has solid chance to earn a position on the Bengals roster as a rookie. The sixth-round pick will battle the disappointing Bernard Scott and veteran journeyman Cedric Peerman for a roster spot. If he wins a spot, he might be worth grabbing in dynasty leagues given BenJarvus Green-Ellis’s limitations as a rusher. If rookie second-round pick Giovani Bernard emerges as a starter, the Bengals may not wish to pay the tab required to keep the Law Firm around as a backup, and Burkhead’s game very much resembles his.
 A candidate for the second best wideout behind Calvin Johnson. WR A.J. Green
(2012 WR Rank – #4, 12.8 FPts/G; #3 PPR, 18.9 FPts/G)
After putting together a Pro Bowl season as a rookie in 2011 with 65 receptions for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns in 15 games, more was expected of A.J. Green last season, and it’s safe to say the Bengals weren’t disappointed. The 24-year old Georgia product scored ten touchdowns in his first ten games on his way to a 97-reception, 1,350-yard, 11-touchdown season. The sky is the limit for Green and he is in the conversation as the league’s second best wide receiver behind the Lions’ Calvin Johnson. In fact, if not for the other contenders having more proven quarterbacks throwing them the ball, there might not be any conversation as to who is Johnson’s heir apparent as the league’s next top receiver. Unfortunately, Andy Dalton’s arm strength and lack of deep ball accuracy hold Green back a bit. Consider Green a lock to be a top five WR in 2013, and don’t be surprised if he winds up second.
WR Mohamed Sanu
(2012 WR Rank – #94, 6.8 FPts/G; #101 PPR, 9.5 FPts/G)
The book on Sanu coming out of Rutgers as a third-round pick in the 2012 draft was that he was an outstanding possession receiver with good hands. With 16 receptions for 154 yards and four touchdowns in nine games, Sanu proved he was a solid red zone target before a stress fracture in his left foot ended his season. While Sanu hauled in 11 passes for 98 yards and four touchdowns in his final four games as the Bengals made a clear decision to get him more involved, it is hard to get very excited by a possession receiver who is big but not that big (6’2”, 210 pounds), lacks speed and playmaking ability (9.6 yards per receptions) and plays in an offense that added skill position players in the first and second rounds of the draft (tight end Tyler Eifert and running back Giovani Bernard). Did we mention that his starting position isn’t even guaranteed? There are many mouths to feed in Cincinnati, and since one of those mouths is A.J. Green’s, we feel there are better players worth taking a flier on in 2013 than Sanu.
WR Marvin Jones
(2012 WR Rank – #106, 3.9 FPts/G; #110 PPR, 6.1 FPts/G)
Entering the league as a fifth-round pick in the 2012 draft, Jones had a good opportunity to earn significant playing time due to the lack of experienced options to play opposite A.J. Green. Unfortunately, the 6’3”, 200-pound California product was largely disappointing, hauling in just 18 receptions for 201 yards and a score through eleven games, which included five starts. Jones finished the season strongly, however, catching 10 passes for 110 yards and a score in his final two games. He has more upside as a receiver than his main competition, fellow second-year player Mohamed Sanu, but the Bengals seem content to roll with a possession receiver at that No. 2 spot. Monitor Jones’ preseason progress, but at this point he is waiver-wire material in redraft leagues.
WR Andrew Hawkins
(2012 WR Rank – #61, 5.7 FPts/G; #57 PPR, 9.4 FPts/G)
While Hawkins took a circuitous route to the NFL, spending a pair of seasons in the CFL, he has developed into a solid slot receiver during his two years in Cincinnati. After a decent rookie season, Hawkins emerged in 2012, hauling in 51 receptions for 533 yards and four touchdowns, totals good enough to rank second among Cincinnati’s wide receivers. Unfortunately for Hawkins, the odds are stacked against his replicating those numbers in 2013. The team added pass-catching tight end Tyler Eifert in the first round, and they are looking for second-year wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones to take a step forward. Hawkins isn’t worth owning in 2013.
WR Brandon Tate
(2012 WR Rank – #112, 2.3 FPts/G; #119 PPR, 3.3 FPts/G)
Despite flashing his playmaking skills on the practice field and as a returner during his time in Cincinnati, Tate has failed to earn consistent playing time in the team’s offense. With a pile of first- and second-year players to compete against for playing time, look for Tate to once again be relegated to a return-game role in 2013.
TE Jermaine Gresham
(2012 WR Rank – #10, 6.5 FPts/G; #10 PPR, 10.5 FPts/G)
Entering 2012, expectations were high for the Bengals’ 2010 first rounder, with Jay Gruden bringing his version of the West Coast offense to Cincinnati. While Gresham increased his receptions and yardage totals for the third straight season, finishing the year with 64 catches for 737 yards and five touchdowns, there remains a lingering feeling that he is capable of much more. Unfortunately, with the addition of first-round pick Tyler Eifert to bolster the position, Gresham’s outstanding athleticism doesn’t seem likely to translate into solid fantasy production in 2013. While the Bengals lack a proven threat opposite A.J. Green at wide receiver, and while Gresham has the talent to emerge as an upper-tier TE, he is best drafted as a TE2 once again in 2013.
TE Tyler Eifert
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
With Germaine Gresham having failed to elevate his game during his first three years in the league, the Bengals used a first-round pick on pass-catching tight end Tyler Eifert. The Notre Dame product has solid athleticism and the speed to get deep and has excelled in the red zone in college, making him a worthy selection for a team looking to add playmakers on offense. While Eifert is a solid pro prospect and an outstanding addition to your dynasty squad, the fact is that Gresham has played well enough to retain his starting job. In addition, neither player can be considered an upper-tier blocker, which means there are no guarantees they will spent the majority of the time on the field together. Don’t expect Eifert to establish himself as a fantasy option in his rookie season.
By: Dave Stringer — July 1, 2013 @ 10:49 am
QB Brandon Weeden
(2012 QB Rank – #25, 15.8 FPts/G)
After a middling rookie season in which he threw for 3,385 yards with 14 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, Weeden will enter training camp in a fight to keep his starting job. New head coach Rob Chudzinski and offensive coordinator Norv Turner will run a vertical passing attack, which should play to Weeden’s strengths. However, he will need to display better decision-making skills if he is to beat out veteran free agent acquisition Jason Campbell. In fairness to Weeden, the Browns lacked consistent playmakers at the skill positions last season and Pat Shurmur’s West Coast offense wasn’t suited to his skill set. In 2013, the Browns will feature better weapons on offense as a result of the addition of Davone Bess and the continued development of players such as Josh Gordon, Greg Little and Jordan Cameron. Weeden shapes up as a QB3 on draft day.
QB Jason Campbell
(2012 QB Rank – #43, 4.8 FPts/G)
After a second consecutive offseason with no starting jobs on offer, Campbell decided to join the Browns where he will compete with Brandon Weeden to be the team’s starting quarterback. Unfortunately for Campbell, he is little more than a fallback option at this point of his career. Look for the Browns to hand the starting job to Weeden, with Campbell in reserve if he falters. While Campbell may earn a couple of starts in 2013, he isn’t likely to be much of a fantasy factor.
 Richardson stayed productive despite knee and rib issues in 2012. RB Trent Richardson
(2012 RB Rank – #9, 13.6 FPts/G; #8 PPR, 17.0 FPts/G)
While most rookie running backs haven’t lived up to their offseason billing over the past few years, Trent Richardson certainly bucked that trend in 2012. The Browns runner had a solid rookie season, rushing for 950 yards and 11 touchdowns while catching 51 passes for 367 yards and another score. He managed to stay productive while playing through knee and rib injuries—issues that caused him to average a somewhat disappointing 3.6 yards per carry, although Cleveland’s porous offensive line also contributed in that regard. The injury issues continued this offseason with Richardson missing time with a shin injury that should be fully healed by training camp. Just one year into his career, Richardson has already proven that he has the potential to be an elite, workhorse running back, provided he can stay healthy. He excels as a short-yardage runner, is already one of the league’s better pass-catching backs and is obviously a solid runner, both inside and outside the tackles. Let’s just hope his career doesn’t parallel that of Steven Jackson, another do-it-all, workhorse back who was saddled with an inferior team for the majority of his career. Consider Richardson a mid-tier RB1 who is a bit of an injury risk.
RB Montario Hardesty
(2012 RB Rank – #75, 3.5 FPts/G; #89 PPR, 3.7 FPts/G)
A 2010 second-round pick, Hardesty suffered a season-ending injury during the preseason of his rookie year and produced little in 2011 and 2012. He was marginally more productive last season, averaging 4.2 yards per carry on 65 rushes and scoring once. But of course the injury bug bit him again, causing him to miss the first five games of the season as well as another contest. In his three years in the league, he has played in 20 games and missed 28 due to injury. There are no guarantees he will earn a spot on the Browns’ roster, let alone get significant touches behind Trent Richardson. If he wins the backup job, he rates as a lower-tier handcuff.
RB Dion Lewis
(2012 RB Rank – #109, 2.6 FPts/G; #117 PPR, 2.9 FPts/G)
The Browns traded for the Eagles’ 2011 fifth-round pick this past offseason to provide some competition for the backup running back spots behind starter Trent Richardson. Lewis saw precious little playing time during his two years in Philadelphia and isn’t a lock to be on the Browns’ roster come opening day. He will likely need to earn a spot on special teams in order to beat out one or more of Montario Hardesty, Chris Ogbonnaya and Brandon Jackson.
RB Chris Ogbonnaya
(2012 RB Rank – #94, 2.0 FPts/G; #75 PPR, 4.2 FPts/G)
After a pair of solid performances subbing as a starter in 2011, Ogbonnaya was an afterthought in 2012 with just 32 touches. He subbed on third downs and was reasonably productive as a receiver with 24 receptions for 187 yards. Ogbonnaya has decent size at 225 pounds but he doesn’t posses good speed and has little ability to make defenders miss. He will battle Montario Hardesty to be Trent Richardson’s backup, but that’s not a role that will provide many touches. He is only worth owning in large leagues, provided he wins the backup role.
RB Brandon Jackson
(2012 RB Rank – #122, 3.7 FPts/G; #130 PPR, 4.7 FPts/G)
Yep, Brandon Jackson is still kicking round. After four mostly subpar years in Green Bay, Jackson signed with Cleveland prior to the 2012 season but he barely saw the field. Jackson is little more than injury insurance at this stage of his career.
WR Josh Gordon
(2012 WR Rank – #38, 6.9 FPts/G; #40 PPR, 10.0 FPts/G)
The Browns used a second-round pick in the 2012 supplemental draft to acquire Gordon, and the expectation was that he would spend most of his rookie season in a complimentary role. Considered a raw prospect coming out of Baylor, the 6’3”, 225-pound Gordon had a surprisingly productive rookie season, hauling in 50 of his 95 targets for 805 yards and five touchdowns. His 16.1 average yards per reception was impressive and Gordon appeared on the verge of providing the Browns with their first true No. 1 wide receiver since they re-entered the league. However, a two-game suspension damped those expectations and clouded his future in Cleveland since another positive drug test will result in a 16-game suspension. While that may prevent the Browns from offering a lucrative long-term deal when his rookie contract expires, it doesn’t have a major impact on his 2013 fantasy prospects. With the Browns moving to a vertical passing attack that suits his physical abilities, Gordon could still top 1,000 receiving yards despite the suspension. Consider him a high-end WR with major upside this season.
WR Greg Little
(2012 WR Rank – #51, 5.6 FPts/G; #50 PPR, 9.0 FPts/G)
At 6’2” and 231 pounds with solid speed, Little looks the part of a potential No. 1 wide receiver. Unfortunately, he hasn’t produced like one despite being given ample opportunities. This is likely his last season to prove to the Browns that he is a worthy starter. After a rookie season in which he caught just 61 of his 120 targets for 709 yards and a pair of scores, Little showed little improvement in 2013, hauling in 53 passes for 647 yards and four touchdowns. He has displayed inconsistent hands and very little impact as a deep receiver. And that’s a relevant factor since new head coach Rob Chudzinski and offensive coordinator Norv Turner run a vertical passing attack. Little has the physical abilities to be a solid receiver and he is entering his third year in the league, so he is definitely worth taking a flier on. Consider him a WR4 with upside in 2013.
WR Davone Bess
(2012 WR Rank – #58, 6.4 FPts/G; #50 PPR, 11.1 FPts/G)
After five years in the league, Bess’s upside is pretty well known. If you’re looking for 50 receptions, he’s accomplished that feat every year. If you’re looking for over 500 yards, he’s done that every year. Unfortunately, his career highs of 820 receiving yards and five touchdowns aren’t enough to get anyone excited. He brings his act to Cleveland this season and we can expect more of the same in 2013. Bess is a solid slot receiver but he lacks speed and playmaking ability. He rates as a WR6 in 2013, and you can move him up a tad in PPR leagues.
WR David Nelson
(2012 WR Rank – #167, 3.1 FPts/G; #167 PPR, 5.1 FPts/G)
After a solid second season in the league in 2011, with 61 receptions for 658 yards and five touchdowns, Nelson appeared to have a good future in Buffalo. A torn ACL in Week 1 ended his 2012 season, however, and the Bills chose not to tender him as an RFA. He joined the Browns this offseason and will enter training camp fourth on the depth chart at wide receiver. A big target at 6’5”, 215 pounds, Nelson has the size to play outside but was used mostly in the slot by the Bills. In Cleveland, he will likely back up both outside receivers as well as Davone Bess out of the slot. Fantasy translation: barring injury, there isn’t much upside here.
WR Travis Benjamin
(2012 WR Rank – #84, 4.0 FPts/G; #90 PPR, 5.5 FPts/G)
A fourth-round pick in 2012, Benjamin’s future in Cleveland looked bright as he was expected to carve out a role as a slot receiver alongside Josh Gordon and Greg Little. After a year in which he caught 18 passes for 298 yards and a pair of scores, and with a new coaching staff in town, Benjamin shapes up as the fifth receiver on a crowded depth chart with the additions of Davone Bess and David Nelson, both of whom have been productive working out of the slot. At this point, Benjamin will likely be using his blazing speed (4.34 40-yard dash time) returning kicks or delivering pizzas.
WR Jordan Norwood
(2012 WR Rank – #136, 6.9 FPts/G; #134 PPR, 13.4 FPts/G)
A preseason star in 2011, Norwood was mostly a bust when the lights came on, hauling in only 23 receptions for 268 yards and a score. In 2012, Norwood lost playing time to rookies Josh Gordon and Travis Benjamin, and he will be in a dogfight to earn a roster spot in 2013. There’s no fantasy appeal here, folks.
TE Jordan Cameron
(2012 WR Rank – #47, 2.2 FPts/G; #45 PPR, 3.7 FPts/G)
The good news for Cameron is that incumbent starter Ben Watson wasn’t re-signed and new head coach Rob Chudzinski and offensive coordinator Norv Turner have been very proficient at getting production out of the tight end position (see Antonio Gates and Greg Olsen). The not-so-good news is that Cameron, the Browns fourth-round pick in the 2011 draft, hasn’t produced much during his first two years in the league (just 26 receptions for 259 yards and a touchdown on his 53 targets). Cameron clearly has the ability to be a solid pass-receiving tight end, but his poor blocking ability doesn’t help keep him on the field at all times. Consider him a mid-tier TE2 with upside.
By: Dave Stringer — June 27, 2013 @ 8:01 pm
 Can Brady make lemonade out of these lemons? QB Tom Brady
(2012 QB Rank – #3, 25.3 FPts/G)
Father Time catches up to all professional athletes, and in the NFL the process is often expedited at the quarterback position when the team’s skill position players suffer a drop in talent. And that is the scenario unfolding for the 35-year-old Brady in New England. While Brady has often made lemonade out of lemons, he faces perhaps the toughest challenge of his career in 2013 as he attempts to keep the team’s proliferate passing offense operating at peak proficiency without wide receiver Wes Welker, who the team failed to re-sign, and tight end Aaron Hernandez, who was released after an offseason marred with legal troubles. In addition, Rob Gronkowski, arguably the most talented tight end in the league, may open the season on the PUP list after having offseason back surgery, and the current depth chart at wide receiver may be the worst since Brady joined the team in 2000. Although Brady is coming off a season in which he threw for 4,827 yards with 34 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, he is unlikely to reach that level of production this season. He certainly isn’t a lock to finish the season as a top five fantasy quarterback and shouldn’t be drafted as such. Consider him in the tier below the big four of Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Cam Newton but with more risk than ever before.
RB Stevan Ridley
(2012 RB Rank – #10, 12.7 FPts/G; #15 PPR, 13.1 FPts/G)
With BenJarvus Green-Ellis having departed via free agency to Cincinnati, there was little doubt that Ridley was going to get plenty of opportunities in the Patriots backfield, but not many predicted that he would have such a strong breakout season. By season’s end, he had accumulated 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns on 290 carries and was remarkably consistent, chalking up 8 or more fantasy points in 12 of 16 games. With Belichick’s inconsistent usage of his running backs, that was an impressive feat for Ridley. Don’t expect much to change in 2013, as Ridley is expected to share the majority of the backfield work with fellow 2011 draftee Shane Vereen. If there is a knock on Ridley, it is his lack of receiving ability; but given his size advantage over Vereen, his only competition for short-yardage work will come from Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount. Look for Ridley to hold them off and finish 2013 as a low-end RB1 or upper-tier RB2.
RB Shane Vereen
(2012 RB Rank – #49, 5.8 FPts/G; #57 PPR, 6.5 FPts/G)
It took a little over a year and a half, but the Patriots’ second-round pick in the 2011 draft finally carved out a role for himself as the 2012 season came to a close. Nagging injuries hurt his performance in 2011 and the emergence of Stevan Ridley, coupled with the presence of Danny Woodhead, limited his playing time last season. However, he topped 100 total yards in Week 12 against the Jets and again in the Patriots’ divisional playoff win over the Texans—a game in which he scored three touchdowns. With Woodhead in San Diego and Ridley strictly a two-down player, Vereen has flex potential in 2013. He rates as an RB4 with upside, provided you can live with the inconsistent usage of the running backs in New England.
RB Brandon Bolden
(2012 RB Rank – #68, 5.1 FPts/G; #78 PPR, 5.3 FPts/G)
The rookie free agent had a decent rookie season, chalking up 274 and a pair of touchdowns on 56 carries—including a 137-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 4 against Buffalo— before a four-game suspension cost him his spot on the depth chart. With Stevan Ridley having a breakout performance last season and Shane Vereen playing well late in the season, Bolden will need to beat out Leon Washington and LeGarrette Blount to earn a spot on the roster. He has a good chance of doing that but, barring injury, has little fantasy appeal in 2013.
RB Leon Washington
(2012 RB Rank – #105, 1.5 FPts/G; #109 PPR, 1.8 FPts/G)
The expectation was once that Washington would turn into a solid change-of-pace player out of the backfield, but those hopes are pretty much extinct now. In Seattle last season, Washington had just 27 touches, the lowest total of his seven-year career. Don’t expect that to change in New England this year.
RB LeGarrette Blount
(2012 RB Rank – #88, 2.7 FPts/G; #97 PPR, 2.8 FPts/G)
Blount’s career has taken a serious downturn since he was a surprise 1000-yard rusher in Tampa Bay as a rookie in 2010. After a disappointing 2011 season (781 rushing yards), Blount lost his job to Doug Martin last season and this offseason was traded to the Patriots for Jeff Demps and a seventh-round pick, a trade that allowed New England to avoid paying Demps the salary guarantees in his contract. Your fantasy prospects don’t look good when a team has given away a seventh-round pick in order to avoid paying another player guaranteed money.
WR Danny Amendola
(2012 WR Rank – #56, 7.8 FPts/G; #47 PPR, 13.5 FPts/G)
Signed away from the Rams this offseason in an attempt to provide an upgrade over the most successful slot receiver in the history of the NFL (32-year-old Wes Welker), Amendola will enter the season atop the Patriots depth chart at receiver. That is, provided he remains healthy until opening day. I mean, hey, who wouldn’t want to replace a player who has averaged 112 receptions, 1,244 receiving yards, 11.1 yards per reception and 6.2 touchdowns over the past six seasons with one who has averaged 51 receptions, 467 receiving yards, 9.2 yards per reception and 2.0 touchdowns over the past three seasons while missing 20 games over the past two years? I guess that decision was settled when the Pats found out they could sign Amendola to a five-year contract worth up to $31.8-million rather than re-sign Welker for $12-million over two years. Amendola is a fearless slot receiver, but it is foolhardy to think he will replace Welker’s production or remain healthy for 16 games when he has accomplished that feat just once in his four years in the league. Consider him a WR3 with major risk in 2013.
WR Donald Jones
(2012 WR Rank – #67, 5.7 FPts/G; #69 PPR, 9.1 FPts/G)
One man’s trash is another’s man’s treasure, although it seems more than a little odd that the Bills’ trash became the Patriots’ treasure in the form of one Donald Jones, a restricted free agent that Buffalo chose not to tender. Looks like the Patriots were impressed by Jones’ five-reception, 101-yard performance (the only 100-yard receiving game of his career) against them in 2011. While snagging passes from Tom Brady in the Patriots high-powered offense is a marked improvement over playing in Buffalo, the truth is that even if Jones opens the season in the staring lineup, the Patriots are going to rely heavily on Danny Amendola and their tight ends and running backs, with the team’s other wide receivers left to pick up the scraps. You might find lightning in a bottle by grabbing Jones, but he should be waiver wire material in most leagues.
WR Julian Edelman
(2012 WR Rank – #88, 5.8 FPts/G; #88 PPR, 8.4 FPts/G)
Edelman’s first four years in the league were so impressive that neither the Patriots nor any other team bothered to offer him a contract until New England finally re-signed him in mid April to a one-year deal. After an impressive rookie season in which he caught 37 passes for 359 yards and a touchdown, Edelman has floundered over the past three seasons, hauling in just 32 passes. He provides insurance out of the slot for Danny Amendola and might be worth grabbing on the waiver wire if (when?) Amendola goes down.
WR Aaron Dobson
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
The Patriots used a second-round draft pick to acquire Dobson and the 6’3″, 200-pound product out of Marshall will have an opportunity to open the season in the starting lineup. Possessed with solid speed, Dobson has the makeup to be a lead receiver, but the Patriots’ poor track record in developing receivers doesn’t provide much assurance that he will have a productive career. Of course, given the lack of depth the team has at the position, Dobson figures to get a long look at some point in 2013. He is a decent prospect in dynasty leagues but waiver wire fodder in redraft formats, barring a strong showing in the preseason.
WR Josh Boyce
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
Drafted in the fourth-round out of TCU, Boyce enters a crowded yet mediocre depth chart at wide receiver in New England. More a blazer than a polished route runner at this point in his career, Boyce will likely fulfill the deep receiver role as a rookie, making him unlikely to produce big stats in 2013. He is worth taking a flier on in dynasty formats.
WR Michael Jenkins
(2012 WR Rank – #77, 3.6 FPts/G; #74 PPR, 6.1 FPts/G)
After spending a pair of middling seasons in Minnesota, Atlanta’s former first-round pick joins the Patriots in 2013. The fact is that he is likely there to learn the playbook so that he can provide injury insurance later in the season. It will be a surprise if Jenkins is on the roster come opening day.
TE Rob Gronkowski
(2012 WR Rank – #2, 13.2 FPts/G; #5 PPR, 18.2 FPts/G)
We know Gronkowski has plenty of upside, but his growing list of injuries brings along plenty of risk. While his forearm is expected to be fine in 2013, offseason back surgery will almost assuredly keep him from being ready for the opening of training camp, and there is an outside chance of his opening the season on the PUP list. Of course, Gronkowski finished last season as the second-ranked fantasy TE (despite appearing in just 11 games) and has a whopping 39 touchdowns over the last three years. If healthy for 16 games, he will likely be the top-ranked TE in 2013, but the odds aren’t strong that he will be available for the entire season. Despite that, he should come off the board in your league’s draft no later than the third round, and the only tight end that is worthy of being taken ahead of him is the Saints’ Jimmy Graham.
TE Jake Ballard
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
After suffering a torn ACL in the Giants Super Bowl win over the Patriots in 2011, the Giants tried to pass Ballard through waivers only to have the Patriots put in a claim on him, even though they knew he was likely to miss all of the 2012 season. That move may prove to be an astute one given the legal woes of Aaron Hernandez. Ballard was a reliable target for Eli Manning in 2011, hauling in 38 of his 61 targets for 604 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games. If his recovery goes well, Ballard is the favorite to land the Patriots’ second tight end spot behind Rob Gronkowski in an offense that relies heavily on two–tight end sets.
TE Michael Hoomanawanui
(2012 WR Rank – #60, 1.8 FPts/G; #63 PPR, 2.7 FPts/G)
While Hoomanawanui did little in his first season in New England, with just five receptions for 109 yards through six games, he has a chance to earn some playing time in 2013 due to Aaron Hernandez’s legal troubles. Hoomanawanui will battle Jake Ballard and Daniel Fells for a spot in the Patriots two–tight end sets.
TE Daniel Fells
(2012 WR Rank – #67, 1.4 FPts/G; #72 PPR, 2.1 FPts/G)
With Rob Gronkowski unable to remain healthy and Aaron Hernandez now released, Fells has a chance to earn some playing time in 2013. Remember that he is a reasonably talented player that put together a 41-reception season on a middling Rams squad in 2010, so he has some receiving ability. He will battle Jake Ballard and Mike Hoomanawanui for a spot on the depth chart.
By: Dave Stringer — June 25, 2013 @ 1:01 pm
 The Jets quarterback situation is one to avoid for fantasy owners. QB Mark Sanchez
(2012 QB Rank – #28, 13.3 FPts/G)
Entering his fifth year in the league and with the Jets having used a second-round pick to acquire Geno Smith, Sanchez is clearly at a crossroads in his career. His $8.5-million guaranteed salary and the fact that head coach Rex Ryan is facing a make-or-break season are quite likely the only two reasons he is still in New York. With Ryan in limbo, Smith will need to emerge as the clear-cut winner of the team’s quarterback competition, and spring OTA’s failed to provide much evidence of that happening. That likely means that Sanchez, who has led the NFL in turnovers with 26 in each of the last two seasons, will be the team’s opening-day starter once again in 2013. However, with a questionable talent level and injury issues at wide receiver plus the lack of a quality pass-receiving tight end, he’s not a player that you want to be relying on for fantasy purposes.
QB Geno Smith, Jets
(2012 QB Rank – N/A)
Hoping to provide competition for incumbent starter Mark Sanchez, the Jets used a second-round pick to acquire West Virginia’s Geno Smith. While Smith has plenty of natural ability, offseason reviews of his work during OTA’s were mixed, with the Jets acknowledging prior to training camp that he would need a strong preseason to unseat Sanchez in the starting lineup. With a mixed bag of talent at the skill positions and leading wide receiver Santonio Holmes doubtful to be fully healthy on opening day, it might be in Smith’s best interest to open the season on the pine. Smith has little to no fantasy value in his rookie season but is a decent prospect in dynasty leagues.
RB Chris Ivory
(2012 RB Rank – #73, 5.9 FPts/G; #87 PPR, 6.2 FPts/G)
There are two schools of thought when it comes to Ivory’s prospects for the upcoming season. One is that, free of the crowded depth chart that he had to climb to gain playing time in New Orleans, he will excel in New York as the Jets starting running back. The other is that, as a powerful, violent ball carrier with limited ability as a receiver, he will struggle to stay healthy and on the field for a less-than-stellar Jets squad in 2013. One thing for certain is that Ivory will get an extended opportunity to lock down the starting job, with the Jets acquiring Ivory and Mike Goodson this offseason due to their lack of commitment to returnees Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight. In three years in New Orleans, Ivory averaged 5.1 yards per carry but caught just three passes while missing significant time due to a various assortment of injuries. His lack of ability as a pass catcher will almost certainly hinder his fantasy production on a Jets offense that is expected to struggle in 2013. He rates as a mid-tier RB3 with upside. Knock him down a bit in leagues that use PPR scoring.
RB Mike Goodson
(2012 RB Rank – #62, 4.3 FPts/G; #61 PPR, 5.8 FPts/G)
Despite possessing enough talent to be a productive running back in the NFL, Goodson has been snake-bitten throughout his career. Drafted by the Panthers in the fourth round of the 2009 draft, he was buried on the depth chart behind DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, missing most of the 2011 season due to injury. Traded to the Raiders prior to last season, he backed up Darren McFadden but was only active for 11 games. Signed to the Jets and given an opportunity to earn significant playing time, Goodson’s offseason was a disaster as gun and drug charges put his availability for 2013 in doubt. Look for the Jets to keep Goodson on the roster, but it is anyone’s guess as to whether the rebuilding franchise will utilize him much this season.
RB Bilal Powell
(2012 RB Rank – #42, 5.8 FPts/G; #43 PPR, 7.1 FPts/G)
After a rookie season in which he barely saw the field, Powell was marginally productive in 2011, gaining 437 yards on 110 carries while scoring four touchdowns. A decent receiver, Powell also caught 17 passes for 140 yards. The issue with the Jets’ 2011 fourth-round pick out of Louisville is that he doesn’t really do anything very well. He’s not that quick, not that shifty, doesn’t have enough size to move the pile and lacks breakaway speed. What he does have is a pair of question marks ahead of him on the depth chart, and that’s what makes him an intriguing fantasy option in 2013. Neither Chris Ivory nor Mike Goodson has been able to stay healthy, and Goodson had a disastrous offseason that could see him jettisoned from the roster or subjected to league suspension at some point during the season. Monitor Powell in the preseason to determine if he is worth a late round flier in your league.
RB Joe McKnight
(2012 RB Rank – #101, 1.6 FPts/G; #110 PPR, 1.7 FPts/G)
Possessed with outstanding speed, McKnight has been unable to carve out a meaningful role for himself (just 129 total touches) in a less-than-stellar Jets backfield since being taken in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. New York opted not to re-sign Shonn Green and added Chris Ivory and Mike Goodson to the roster as competition for Bilal Powell and McKnight, and that tells you all you need to know about McKnight’s fantasy prospects for the upcoming season. Basically, he doesn’t have any.
WR Santonio Holmes
(2012 WR Rank – #102, 8.3 FPts/G; #106 PPR, 13.3 FPts/G)
Since arriving in New York in 2010, Holmes has failed to set the town on fire, gaining 746 receiving yards in his initial season with the Jets, dropping to 654 yards in 2011, and then down to just 272 yards in 2012. Of course, a Lisfranc injury ended his season after just four games or he might have produced his first 1000-yard season as a Jet. With Holmes it seems like it’s always something, and a look at his career numbers leaves something to be desired. Despite being a first-round pick in the 2006 draft, he has just one 1000-yard season in his seven years in the league and seems unlikely to add to that in 2013 given the team’s issues at quarterback, the overall state of the offense and a question mark regarding his ability to come back from the Lisfranc injury. Consider Holmes a WR4.
WR Stephen Hill
(2012 WR Rank – #90, 3.9 FPts/G; #96 PPR, 5.8 FPts/G)
Considered a raw prospect coming out of Georgia Tech as the Jets second-round selection in the 2012 draft, Hill burst onto the scene with a five-reception, 89-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 1 against the Bills. Unfortunately, it was all downhill from there, with Hill appearing in just 10 games and failing to catch a single pass in five of those. In fact, outside of his Week 1 performance, the most yards he accumulated in a single game was 55, and he scored just one more touchdown. What’s in store for 2013 is anybody’s guess. Hill may have developed some better route-running skills, but offseason reports indicated that he was having trouble hanging on to the football. One of the Jets quarterbacks may step up and provide decent play at the position. But that seems unlikely. Hill looks like Tarzan and one day may put up Tarzan numbers, but in 2013 he looks a lot more like Jane. Consider Hill a WR5 with upside in 12-team leagues.
WR Jeremy Kerley
(2012 WR Rank – #48, 6.0 FPts/G; #44 PPR, 9.5 FPts/G)
After putting together a decent rookie season, catching 29 passes for 314 yards and a touchdown, Kerley enjoyed a breakthrough of sorts in 2012—taking advantage of a Santonio Holmes injury and Stephen Hill’s inexperience—to haul in 56 receptions for 827 yards and a pair of receptions. He averaged a very respectable 60 receiving yards per game over his first 11 games before hitting the wall with a four-game slump that preceded an 88-yard performance to finish the season. So, is Kerley the real deal? Or is he just a player that took advantage of an opportunity? At 5’9” and 188 pounds, the third-year receiver is destined to play out of the slot, and with Holmes expected back in the lineup and Hill expected to assume a greater role, Kerley is unlikely to duplicate the 95 targets he received last year. He is waiver wire material in all but the deepest of redraft leagues.
TE Kellen Winslow
(2012 TE Rank – #84, 1.2 FPts/G; #85 PPR, 2.2 FPts/G)
You know you’re desperate when it takes a player a full three-day tryout to earn a contract and he immediately ascends to the top of your depth chart. Such is the case with Winslow and the Jets. Hard to believe, but the former sixth overall selection in the 2004 draft was almost out of football last season at the tender age of 29, save for a one-game appearance with New England. In New York, Winslow could have a renaissance season with little competition at tight end and the team having a mixed bag of talent at wide receiver. Of course, renaissances for receiving tight ends don’t happen often with rookie quarterbacks or veteran ones who are fighting to salvage their careers.
TE Jeff Cumberland
(2012 TE Rank – #31, 3.9 FPts/G; #34 PPR, 5.9 FPts/G)
Cumberland was marginally productive subbing in for an injured Dustin Keller in 2012, catching 29 of his 53 targets for 359 yards and three touchdowns during his third year in the league. However, he is clearly a stopgap measure at most and is best suited to a blocking role. With Kellen Winslow signed prior to training camp, Cumberland is highly unlikely to match his 2012 production this season.
By: Dave Stringer — June 21, 2013 @ 11:12 am
QB Ryan Tannehill
(2012 QB Rank – #24, 15.3 FPts/G)
Considered a raw prospect coming out of Texas A&M last year as a first-round pick, Tannehill had a solid rookie season despite playing mostly a caretaker role in an offense devoid of talent at the wide receiver position. While the former college wide receiver has the athletic ability to develop into a solid starter, he needs to continue to learn the playbook and improve his ability to read defenses in order to become a consistent fantasy producer. Despite playing in all 16 games, he failed to top 200 passing yards in eight games, finishing the season with 3,294 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Having added Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson at wide receiver and Dustin Keller at tight end, the Dolphins expect more from Tannehill. Provided the offensive line holds up (a major question mark), Tannehill could emerge as a mid-tier QB2 in 2013 but should be between the 20th and 25th quarterback taken in your draft.
QB Matt Moore
(2012 QB Rank – #51, 5.1 FPts/G)
Despite being a free agent, Moore returned to Miami to back up Ryan Tannehill, torpedoing his fantasy prospects. Given his solid production as a starter in 2011 (16 FPts/G) and the Dolphins’ improved receiving corps, Moore is worth a look if Tannehill goes down.
 Miller: The hype is in full force. Having decided against re-signing free agent Reggie Bush, the Dolphins effectively handed the starting running back job to Lamar Miller. While the second-year player looked good in limited action as a rookie, averaging 4.9 yards per carry on 50 carries, the knock on him coming out of the University of Miami was that he was injury prone. However, Miami clearly thinks he can handle a big load, as they waited until the sixth round to draft running back Mike Gillislee to supplement the depth chart behind Miller and the disappointing Daniel Thomas. Get ready for Miller to be a hot commodity at draft time, given his potential for a workhorse role in a less than stellar Dolphins backfield. He clearly has the upside to be a high-end RB2, but that sounds a bit optimistic here. Consider him as a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3.
RB Daniel Thomas
(2012 RB Rank – #45, 6.0 FPts/G; #48 PPR, 7.3 FPts/G)
Outside of the Saints’ Mark Ingram, Thomas was the hottest rookie fantasy RB when he entered the league in 2011. Two short years later he is in jeopardy of losing his roster spot. Then again, he could emerge as a solid option in a committee backfield with Lamar Miller. If there’s one thing we can be certain of when it comes to Thomas, it’s that the Dolphins view him as the fallback option to Miller. Envisioned as a physical back coming out of Kansas State, Thomas has struggled in short yardage and hasn’t been able to stay healthy, missing five games in two years. There isn’t much upside here, but there’s plenty of risk. If Thomas holds off rookie sixth-round pick Mike Gillislee and the Dolphins develop into a solid offense, he could be a decent flex option.
RB Mike Gillislee
(2012 RB Rank – N/A)
With a pair of unproven running backs atop the depth chart, the Dolphins used a sixth-round pick in this year’s draft to acquire Gillislee, who enjoyed a solid senior season at the University of Florida. He dropped in the draft due to his lack of size (5’11”, 209 pounds) and lack of breakaway speed, but he should be considered a decent sleeper in 2013. Neither Lamar Miller nor Daniel Thomas has enjoyed consistent success in the NFL and, while he doesn’t excel in any one area, Gillislee is solid in many. Monitor the Dolphins backfield situation in training camp since it won’t be a surprise if Gillislee at least jumps over Thomas on the depth chart.
WR Mike Wallace
(2012 WR Rank – #24, 8.8 FPts/G; #23 PPR, 13.1 FPts/G)
With a hole in the depth chart at wide receiver and a pile of salary cap space, the Dolphins made Mike Wallace this year’s highest paid free agent wide receiver, giving him a five-year, $65-million contract. Since this is about fantasy football, we won’t concern ourselves with whether they overpaid (they did); instead we’ll focus on whether he will be a bona fide No. 1 wide receiver in Miami (he will). There aren’t many faster players in the league than Wallace, and he will be catching passes from strong-armed, second-year signal caller Ryan Tannehill. Unfortunately for Wallace, Tannehill is a step down from Ben Roethlisberger. And now is a good time to note that Wallace’s yardage totals have dropped each year since his career-best, 10-touchdown season in 2010—from 1,257 yards that year to 1,193 in 2011 and 835 last season. He is also very inconsistent (four games with 13 or more fantasy points and seven with six or less). Feel comfortable drafting Wallace as a mid-tier WR2.
WR Brian Hartline
(2012 WR Rank – #34, 7.6 FPts/G; #27 PPR, 12.6 FPts/G)
Hartline is coming off a career year in which he accumulated 74 receptions for 1,083 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 131 targets, while assuming the lead receiver role on a struggling Dolphins offense. The most important statistic above is the 131 targets. With Mike Wallace now in Miami, Hartline won’t come close to approaching that. Hartline has decent size and solid speed but the odds are strong that he will never approach his 2012 production over the balance of his career. Fantasy-wise, he needs to step up his touchdown production to be useful in 2013, but he has just six scores during his three years in the league, and the addition of tight end Dustin Keller isn’t going to help him in getting more red zone targets. Consider him an upper tier WR4 in 2013.
WR Brandon Gibson
(2012 WR Rank – #44, 6.6 FPts/G; #46 PPR, 10.0 FPts/G)
Despite having the productive Davone Bess on the roster, the Dolphins chose to sign Gibson to a three-year, $9.8-million contract. Consider that a head scratcher. While Gibson was solid last year in St. Louis as the team’s leading receiver with career highs in yards (691) and touchdowns (5), it is telling that the receiver-needy Rams didn’t even attempt to re-sign him. With Gibson, the Dolphins are getting a player with decent size, average speed and minimal play-making ability. He’s not really built to play out of the slot, either, which is where he is expected to line up in 2013. Move on, folks.
TE Dustin Keller
(2012 TE Rank – #37, 5.5 FPts/G; #37 PPR, 9.0 FPts/G)
There is nothing wrong with robbing a division rival of a starter, and that is what the Dolphins did when they poached Keller form the cap-strapped Jets. Keller will assume the starting role left vacant when Anthony Fasano signed with the Chiefs, but he will need to re-establish himself after a disappointing 2012 season in which he missed eight games and produced just 317 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Since Keller has never averaged more than 7.0 fantasy points per game during his five-year career, don’t him to emerge as a solid threat in 2013. He is a lower-tier TE2.
By: Dave Stringer — June 17, 2013 @ 10:18 am
QB EJ Manuel
(2012 QB Rank – N/A)
Being a first-round pick means that a quarterback has the talent to play the position. Unfortunately, for close to 15 years, being a Buffalo Bills quarterback has meant not being a productive quarterback. With new coach Doug Marrone, perhaps that will change and Florida State rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel will become the team’s most productive starting quarterback since, well, Doug Flutie. Manuel has the size, arm strength, accuracy and running ability to be a solid starter, but he was a surprise first-round pick who didn’t run a full-scale, pro-style offense at Florida State. The Bills have solid weapons at running back and a wide receiver depth chart loaded with potential, but Manuel is more of a dynasty prospect than a player you will want to own in your redraft league.
QB Kevin Kolb
(2012 QB Rank – #35, 17.8 FPts/G)
Having released incumbent starter Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills signed Kolb to a modest two-year, $6.1-million contract in the offseason with the expectation that they would use the draft to acquire a prospect at quarterback. Sure enough, Buffalo used the 16th pick in the draft to acquire E.J. Manuel. With Manuel considered a raw prospect, Kolb could open the season in the starting lineup, but he would need to be effective in leading the team on a potential playoff run to remain under center for 16 games. Given his history of injuries and ineffectiveness, the odds of that happening are remote.
 A heavier workload is expected for C.J. Spiller this season. RB C.J. Spiller
(2012 RB Rank – #7, 13.6 FPts/G; #6 PPR, 16.3 FPts/G)
After looking mostly like a bust for the first year and a half of his career, Spiller is coming off a run of 22 games through which he has accumulated 2,336 total yards and 11 touchdowns, including 1,703 yards and eight scores in 2012. That is the type of production a mid-tier RB1 puts up and is certainly impressive considering Spiller had six games last year with 13 or fewer touches. With a new coaching staff in Buffalo and Spiller having proven that he deserves to start and get a heavy dose of touches, he has the potential to be a top five fantasy RB in 2013. Considering Spiller averaged 6.0 yards per carry and 10.7 yards per reception last season, look for the Bills to get him far more touches than the 250 he had last season. That bodes well for his fantasy prospects in 2013.
RB Fred Jackson
(2012 RB Rank – #36, 8.9 FPts/G; #34 PPR, 12.3 FPts/G)
After starting 2011 on a pace that had him headed to the Pro Bowl, only to suffer a season-ending fractured fibula in Week 11, it has been all downhill for Jackson. He has appeared in just ten games in each of the last two seasons, with a pair of right knee sprains limiting him in 2012. While still productive when healthy last season (he averaged 65 total yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game), Jackson is headed for more of a pure backup role in 2013 because of C.J. Spiller’s emergence. Still, at 32 years of age, Jackson is one of the most highly rated handcuffs in the league, making him a solid RB3.
RB Tashard Choice
(2012 RB Rank – #91, 3.3 FPts/G; #94 PPR, 3.8 FPts/G)
At 28 years of age, Choice has been relegated to a third-string role in Buffalo. However, with Fred Jackson struggling to remain healthy in each of the last two seasons, Choice has a chance to see the field in 2013. Just don’t expect him to get the ball much, even when he does play. He has hit double-digit touches just twice during his year-and-a-half stay with the Bills.
WR Steve Johnson
(2012 WR Rank – #20, 8.8 FPts/G; #18 PPR, 13.7 FPts/G)
The knock on Johnson is that he isn’t a true No. 1 wide receiver. While that may be the case, he is remarkably consistent, catching between 76 and 82 balls for 1,004 to 1,073 yards and six to ten touchdowns over the last three years while averaging 13.1, 13.2 and 13.2 yards per reception. The easy thing would be to project him for 80 receptions for 1,050 yards and seven touchdowns in 2013, and who could quibble with that? However, the wrinkle in that equation is the quarterback situation in Buffalo, where Kevin Kolb will likely start the season before giving way to rookie first-round pick E.J. Manuel at some point. While Johnson will remain the focal point of the Bills passing attack in 2013, look for his production to dip slightly, making him only a high-end WR3 this season.
WR Robert Woods
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
Unable over the past three seasons to find a consistently productive wide receiver opposite Steve Johnson among a cast of undrafted free agents and low-round picks, the Bills used a high second-round pick to acquire Woods. The USC receiver is a polished product with good size but lacks true deep speed. However, he was consistently productive in college and faces little competition to open the season in the starting lineup. With tight end Scott Chandler coming off a late-season ACL injury, Woods could surprise in 2013. Consider him as a late-round flier in redraft leagues and a solid prospect in dynasty formats.
WR T.J. Graham
(2012 WR Rank – #99, 2.6 FPts/G; #85 PPR, 4.6 FPts/G)
The future looked rosy for Graham after the Bills used a third-round pick to acquire him during the 2012 draft. However, after a marginally productive rookie campaign during which he caught 31 passes for 322 yards and one touchdown, Graham faces a crowded depth chart with the addition of a pair of draft picks in Robert Woods (2nd rnd) and Marquise Goodwin (3rd rnd), as well as undrafted rookie free agent Da’Rick Rogers. Monitor Graham during the preseason and consider him worth a late-round flier, in hopes that he earns a spot in the starting lineup.
WR Marquise Goodwin
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
One year after drafting the smallish T.J. Graham in the third round, the Bills drafted another undersized receiver in Goodwin in the third round. Welcome to drafting science, Buffalo style. Sure, a new coach is in town, but recently retired general manager Buddy Nix was on hand to make both picks. At 5’9” and 179 pounds, Goodwin is destined to play out of the slot, but the speedster will have a hard time carving out a meaningful role during his rookie season. Goodwin is a low rated dynasty prospect.
WR Da’Rick Rogers
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
With solid size and speed, Rogers should have been a Day Two draft pick. His off-the-field activities prevented that, however, and the Bills chose to take a shot at him as an undrafted free agent. The early prognosis is that this was an astute move by Buffalo, but one wrong step will result in Rogers exit from roster. Provided he keeps it together, he is worth gambling on with one of your lower roster spots.
WR Marcus Easley
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
What can you say about Marcus Easley other than he’s been the victim of some extremely bad luck. He missed his first two seasons with injuries, including a heart ailment, before finally appearing in three games last season but failing to catch a pass. With Steve Johnson and four first- or second-year players ahead of him on the depth chart, Easley’s string of bad luck doesn’t figure to end in 2013.
TE Scott Chandler
(2012 TE Rank – #13, 6.2 FPts/G; #15 PPR, 9.1 FPts/G)
While Chandler solidified the Bills at the tight end position over the past two seasons, his outlook for 2013 is uncertain because of the torn ACL he suffered in Week 16 last year. While Chandler established career highs last season in receptions (43) and yards (571), he was far less effective in a more expanded role than in 2011. His reception-to-target ratio dropped from a very solid 82.6 to just 58.1. Coming off a serious late-season injury and with an uncertain situation at quarterback, Chandler is little more than bye-week filler in 2013.
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