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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — April 5, 2013 @ 9:11 am
Having refused to accept a reduction in his 2013 salary as an Oakland Raider, quarterback Carson Palmer was traded yesterday to the Arizona Cardinals.
As part of the trade, the Cardinals sent a high sixth-round pick in this year’s draft to Oakland in exchange for the Raiders seventh-round pick, a swap that allows Oakland to move up 43 places in the draft. In addition, the Cardinals will give up a 2014 seventh-round pick if Palmer starts 13 games in 2013.
After Palmer refused a pay cut, the Raiders traded for Seahawks backup Matt Flynn, effectively ending Palmer’s two-year run as the team’s starter. His acquisition from the Bengals in 2011 will go down as one of the Oakland’s worst trades ever, with the Raiders having given up first- and second-round picks for a quarterback who started just 24 games for them.
After struggling somewhat in 2011, Palmer enjoyed a solid season in 2012, completing 61.1% of his passes for 4,018 yards with 22 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
In Arizona, Palmer ascends to the top of the team’s depth chart with recent free agent signee Drew Stanton entrenched as the team’s top backup. John Skelton, who started 17 games during his first three seasons in the league, was released.
Fantasy Impact
 Fitz may flirt with the fantasy top ten with Palmer under center. Cardinals fans want to know, is Palmer the second coming of Kurt Warner? In short, no. He’s not as accurate as Warner, he doesn’t read defenses as well, and he hasn’t enjoyed any playoff success prior to coming to the desert.
The biggest winner with this trade from a fantasy perspective is Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald.
Last season Fitzgerald caught just 71 passes for 798 yards (the second lowest total of his career) and four touchdowns (the lowest of his career). Any casual fan could tell you that his production suffered due to the shoddy play of the team’s quarterbacks, and a quick glance at his catch-to-target percentage confirms that (71 receptions on 156 targets for a 45.5% completion percentage).
If Skelton and Kevin Kolb, with perhaps a rookie draft pick, were atop the depth chart to open next season, Fitzgerald would have ranked as a low-end WR2.
With Palmer under center, Fitzgerald becomes a low-end WR1. Having a quarterback with the arm strength, accuracy and experience to execute new head coach Bruce Arians’ downfield passing attack should do wonders for Fitzgerald’s fantasy value.
Of course, downfield passing attacks flounder under the weight of a poor offensive line, and that is an issue the Cardinals must address prior to the start of the season. They led the league in sacks allowed last season, and Palmer is about as stationary a quarterback as you will find in the league, though he is effective at reading defenses and getting the ball out on time.
Look for the Cardinals to use the seventh overall selection to address the offensive tackle position. with Bobby Massie, last season’s starter at right tackle, a candidate to move inside to guard.
Wide receivers Michael Floyd, a 2012 first-round pick, and Andre Roberts will also benefit with Palmer at the controls. Floyd has plenty of upside and Roberts has improved his reception and yardage totals in each of his three years in the league. However, both will rate as fantasy backups until they prove otherwise.
Running back Rashard Mendenhall also sees a boost in his fantasy appeal, as he figures to face fewer eight- and nine-man fronts with a quality veteran at quarterback. He shapes up as an upper-tier fantasy backup with upside entering 2013.
As for Palmer, feel comfortable grabbing him as your fantasy backup at QB—a mid- to upper-tier one at that.
By: Dave Stringer — March 15, 2013 @ 10:07 am
 The Falcons have themselves a workhorse at running back. With a gaping hole at running back following the release of Michael Turner, the Atlanta Falcons have landed the top free agent at the position in former Ram Steven Jackson.
Reports indicate that Jackson will sign a three-year, $12 million contract.
Atlanta’s interest in Jackson was perhaps the league’s worst kept secret entering the free agency period. It is likely that only the lukewarm interest Jackson received from the Green Bay Packers kept him from agreeing to terms with Atlanta earlier.
In the 29-year-old Jackson, the Falcons gain a player long considered one of the league’s premier power running backs and perhaps the most consistent player at his position, as evidenced by his eight consecutive 1000-yard seasons. In 2012, he gained 1,042 rushing yards and scored four touchdowns while averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He also chipped in 38 receptions for 321 yards.
With Jackson on the roster, third-year player Jacquizz Rodgers will remain the team’s top backup, with Jason Snelling providing additional depth.
Fantasy Impact
Jackson has ranked as the 17th, 11th and 14th fantasy RB in the past three years, as his low touchdown totals (4, 6, and 6, respectively) have held his ranking down.
In Atlanta, with one of the league’s leading offenses, Jackson figures to approach the 11 touchdowns Turner scored in 2012, meaning the only issues that could prevent Jackson from being a lower-tier RB1 in 2013 are injuries (two missed games over the last four years) and a decline in performance.
While Jackson will hit the dreaded 30-year-old mark prior to the season and has accumulated 2,395 rushing attempts and 407 receptions over his nine-year career, his performance in 2012 was not indicative of a player on the downside of his career.
His yards per carry was a respectable 4.1 (just off his career average of 4.2) and he caught 38 passes, making it the eighth straight year he has caught at least that many, while averaging 8.4 yards per reception. With Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez around to keep opposing defenses honest, Jackson won’t face the eight- and nine-man fronts he saw during most of his tenure in St. Louis.
In an era dominated by the running-back-by-committee approach, Jackson bucked that trend as a true workhorse during his stay with the Rams. However, with Rodgers in tow as his backup, and worthy of 8 to 10 touches per game, Jackson is likely in line for 250 to 280 touches in 2013. That should make him an upper-tier RB2 with an outside chance of low-end RB1 production. Rodgers is a solid handcuff and decent flex option in 12-team leagues.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan gains another option in the passing game (Turner had a career-high 19 receptions in 2012), which should add to his production. He remains just outside of the big four at quarterback.
Jackson’s presence has little to no impact on White, Jones and Gonzalez.
By: Dave Stringer — March 14, 2013 @ 9:04 am
 Wes Welker moves from Hall of Fame QB to another. In one of the more stunning free agent signings in recent years, Wes Welker has agreed to terms with the Denver Broncos.
Unable to reach a deal with New England after playing the 2012 season under the franchise tag, Welker chose to leave the Patriots and end his longstanding and productive relationship with quarterback Tom Brady to sign with the Broncos, where he will join Peyton Manning.
In an era of ever-churning news cycles, Welker’s decision to leave New England for Denver will be debated for a long time, particularly given that he agreed to a modest deal (reportedly two years and $12 million) shortly after Brady signed a below-market extension that granted the Patriots an abundance of salary cap space.
Brady’s reaction to the deal will be almost as interesting as watching Welker on the field in Denver with Manning.
Regarded as the league’s premier slot receiver, Welker recorded 672 receptions during his six-year stint in New England, endearing himself to the team’s fan base with his solid production and toughness. He missed just three games due to injury despite suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament in the final game of the 2009 season.
Last season, Welker caught 118 passes for 1,354 yards and six touchdowns.
Fantasy Impact
Well, the widespread assumption was that if Welker left the Patriots, he would be hard pressed to match his production in New England with his new team. However, if there is a quarterback that can keep Welker relevant, it is Manning.
If a 36-year-old Brandon Stokley can catch 45 passes playing out of the slot with Manning, Welker has a solid chance to surpass 100 receptions for the sixth time in the past seven seasons.
In Denver, Welker joins a pair of 1000-yard receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, but there is little reason to suggest he can’t top 100 receptions and 1,000 yards with the Broncos. Throw in another six- or seven-touchdown season and Welker will once again rate as a high-end WR2 in 2013.
With Welker owning the slot, the team’s tight ends will almost certainly become persona non grata in the Broncos passing attack. Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen are once again expected to share that role, so neither will be worth owning for fantasy purposes.
Thomas and Decker both had outstanding seasons in 2012, and Welker’s signing shouldn’t have a major impact on their production as both players enter their fourth season in the league.
Of the two, Thomas has the most upside, having accumulated 1,442 receiving yards and ten touchdowns last season. He has the potential to become a top three fantasy WR in 2013.
Decker was the seventh-ranked fantasy WR in 2012, with 1,064 yards and 13 touchdowns. But since such a large portion of his production came from touchdowns, another top 10 fantasy season seems unlikely. Decker still shapes up as a mid-tier WR2 next season, however.
As for Manning, he moves from being a mid-tier QB1 to an upper-tier option, given the plethora of outstanding talent the team now possesses at receiver.
In New England, Brady will be left to lament the loss of his security blanket, as will his fantasy owners. Although reports indicate that the Patriots have signed former Ram Danny Amendola to replace Welker, he is little more than a poor man’s version—and an injury-prone one at that.
With Welker’s departure, Brady becomes a riskier fantasy option, though he remains an upper-tier fantasy QB for 2013.
By: Dave Stringer — March 13, 2013 @ 10:40 pm
 Bush’s PPR value is on the rise. With the free agent market at running back lacking quality, the Detroit Lions moved quickly to address their need at the position, agreeing to terms with former Dolphin Reggie Bush.
Reports indicate that Bush will sign a four-year deal worth $16 million.
Detroit’s interest in Bush comes as no surprise to league observers, as the team had shown plenty of signs that it had given up on former second-round pick Jahvid Best due to his history of concussions and their need to add playmaking ability at the running back position.
Arguably the most talented running back available in free agency, Bush will assume the starter’s role in Detroit ahead of Mikel Leshoure, who had a disappointing sophomore campaign after missing all of his rookie season due to an Achilles tendon tear.
After five largely disappointing and injury-plagued seasons in New Orleans, Bush joined Miami prior to the 2011 season and topped 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career. In 2012, he played in all 16 games for the first time since 2006, finishing just shy of consecutive 1000-yard seasons with 986 rushing yards.
Fantasy Impact
In Miami, Bush finished 2011 as the 12th-ranked fantasy running back, dropping a couple of notches to 14th this past season as he clearly established himself as a quality lead runner for the first time in his career. Those were impressive feats given his previous production in New Orleans coupled with the lack of playmakers and questionable quarterback play in Miami.
The Lions clearly don’t have the offensive issues that Bush had to deal with in Miami. With Calvin Johnson lining up out wide and strong-armed Matthew Stafford at quarterback, opposing defenses will have to pick their poison, and it is safe to assume they will choose to double cover Johnson rather than Bush.
That should translate into Bush facing fewer eight-man fronts, as well as having plenty of open space in the passing game. It should be noted that he hasn’t topped 45 receptions since the 2009 season and failed to reach 300 receiving yards in each of the last three years.
Expect those trends to change in 2013 given the Lions reliance on their running backs in the passing game. Bush should approach 1,000 rushing yards and 400 receiving yards provided he remains healthy. Throw in seven or eight touchdowns and he would rate as a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 in 2013.
If you’re looking for red flags, there are a couple. First off, Leshoure is a solid short-yardage back and Joique Bell isn’t a slouch in that area either. Their presence will cut down on Bush’s looks inside the 5-yard line. Secondly, Bush’s injury history can’t be ignored (20 missed games during his tenure in New Orleans), although he did miss just one game during his two-year stay with Miami.
Given Bush’s solid upside and recent run of good health, fantasy owners should feel comfortable drafting him as an upper tier RB2 in 2013.
By: Dave Stringer — January 18, 2013 @ 9:11 pm
1. Jimmy Graham, Saints – Graham saw his FPts/G average drop from 12.3 in 2011 to 10.1 this past season but still shapes as the top rated fantasy tight end for 2013 with Sean Payton and Drew Brees leading the charge in New Orleans.
2. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – Here’s what I said last year in assessing Gronk as the number two tight end: “He’s a beast but is he a beast that can stay healthy?” After two broken arms in 2012, that assessment holds.
3. Jason Witten, Cowboys – Witten was a PPR demon in 2012 with a career-high 110 receptions for 1,039 yards (the second-highest total of his career) and three touchdowns. For a player who has had such an illustrious career, it is hard to believe that he has topped six receiving touchdowns just twice ten years and that limits his fantasy upside.
 Olsen enters 2013 as a borderline top-five fantasy tight end. 4. Greg Olsen, Panthers – In 2012, Olsen finally fulfilled the promise the Bears saw in him when they used a late 1st round pick to grab him in the 2007 draft, hauling in 69 receptions for 843 yards (both career highs) and five touchdowns. The Panthers will have a new offensive coordinator in 2013 but expect more of the same from Olsen.
5. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – Injuries limited Hernandez to a career-low 10 games in 2012 as he racked up 51 receptions for 483 yards and five touchdowns. His FPts/G averaged dropped 1.7 points to 7.8 but expect more in 2013. However, with Wes Welker likely back in the fold, Hernandez is barely hanging onto top-five status at tight end.
6. Owen Daniels, Texans – Daniels started the season strong with 555 receiving yards and six touchdowns in his first 10 games before slumping badly over in his last five (just 161 receiving yards – he missed one game). At 30 years of age, Daniels isn’t likely to improve on his production in 2013.
7. Dennis Pitta, Ravens – Pitta was the epitome of streaky in his breakout 2012 campaign, totaling 94 of his 109 fantasy points in eight games. Look for more production as he enters his fourth year in the league but expect the inconsistency to remain.
8. Brandon Myers, Raiders – Myers was a waiver wire find in 2012, finishing the season with the 5th most receiving yards amongst tight ends and as the 9th ranked fantasy player at his position. A free agent, Myers is expected back in Oakland and shapes up as a top-10 fantasy tight end in 2013.
9. Fred Davis, Redskins – An Achilles injury ended Davis 2012 season prematurely but he remains a young, talented tight end capable of putting together a breakout season in 2013. If only RGII had stayed healthy.
10.Vernon Davis, 49ers – Mercedes Benz talent, Lada production (am I dating myself there?) Davis has seen his yardage and touchdown total decline every season since his career-year in 2009 (965 yards and 13 touchdowns). With Michael Crabtree emerging as Colin Kaepernick’s favorite target, Davis rates as a low end TE1 in 2013. After a solid first game with Kaepernick under center (83 yards and a score), Davis managed just six receptions for 61 yards over his final six regular season contests.
11.Jermaine Gresham, Bengals – Gresham has improved upon his reception and yardage count in each of his three season but his performance still leaves something to be desired. At some point, a breakout seems likely but I’m not sold it will happen in 2013.
12. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings – With nine touchdowns, Rudolph was tied with Graham for the second most touchdowns amongst tight ends. Unfortunately, his yardage total was a bit of a bust with just 493 receiving yards, the third lowest total amongst the league’s top 25 ranked fantasy tight ends. As you know, relying on touchdown production is generally a recipe for fantasy disaster.
13.Antonio Gates, Chargers – Gates couldn’t blame injuries for his poor performance this season as he put up his lowest FPts/G average since his rookie season way back in 2003. His reception total, total yards and touchdowns were either the lowest of the last nine years or tied for it. He also failed to top 59 receiving yards in 14 out of 15 games. Let the pylon in your pool grab Gates earlier than he should go.
Others to consider are the Steelers Heath Miller (recovering from a late season torn ACL), Jermichael Finley (the Packers perennial tease) and Tony Gonzalez (is he really going to retire?).
By: Dave Stringer — January 4, 2013 @ 4:41 pm
Reports indicate that former Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid will be joining the Kansas City Chiefs for the 2013 season.
With Reid in tow, the Chiefs jettisoned general manager Scott Pioli, who was unable to build a playoff caliber roster over the past four seasons. Pioli had a strong hand in running the organization and would have had to accept a reduced role with Reid likely to have final say on personnel matters as the Chiefs head coach.
Pioli compiled a 23-41 record with one playoff appearance during his tenure in Kansas City which was marked with a number of questionable personnel decisions, including the decisions to trade for quarterback Matt Cassel and linebacker Mike Vrabel, trade away Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez and use the 3rd pick in the 2009 draft on Tyson Jackson.
Piolo also refused to re-sign the team’s own free agents including cornerback Brandon Carr and failed to reach a long-term contract extension with wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, even though free agent signee Steve Breaston had failed to produce and 2011 1st round pick Jonathan Baldwin had failed to develop.
It is expected that the Chiefs will hire either former Cleveland general manager Tom Heckert or John Dorsey, Green Bay’s director of college scouting, to fulfill the general manager’s role. Reid has ties to both Heckert and Dorsey.
In Reid, the Chiefs acquire a head coach with a long history of success, having compiled a 130-94 record during his 14 seasons in Philadelpia. While Reid’s teams were consistently solid, they failed to win a Super Bowl, losing Super Bowl XXXIX in 2004 and losing in the NFC Championship Game four other times.
Fantasy Impact
 Don't worry fantasy owners, there will be plenty of touches for Charles in Andy Reid's offense. In Kansas City, Reid inherits a team with issues at the quarterback position, a dynamic running back in Jamaal Charles, the makings of a solid offensive line and uncertainty at the wide receiver position with the pending free agency of Bowe.
With Michael Vick unlikely to return to the Eagles and Kevin Kolb not likely back in Arizona, Reid could decide to reunite with one of his former quarterbacks while grooming a replacement taken in this year’s upcoming draft. Cassel is not likely to be retained.
That would solidify the team’s offense and improve the Chiefs chances of re-signing Bowe, the type of big, playmaking receiver that Reid rarely had in Philadelphia outside of Terrell Owens. With a veteran quarterback running Reid’s version of the West Coast offense, Bowe’s production could approach his career year in 2010 when he caught 72 passes for 1,162 yards and 15 touchdowns, which would make him a mid-tier WR1.
Tight end Tony Moeaki could also see his production increase given Reid’s ability to generate passing yardage in the screen game, an area the athletic Moeaki could excel in.
With Baldwin having done little to justify his selection in the first round of the 2011 draft and Breaston having caught just seven passes in 2012, the Chiefs are expected to replenish the wide receiver position in the draft or free agency.
At running back, Reid has generally chosen to go with one player in a workhorse role and that means that Jamaal Charles is likely in line for plenty of touches in 2013. The Eagles LeSean McCoy topped 1,600 total yards in each of the 2010 and 2011 seasons while totaling 29 touchdowns. Even though Reid has shown a propensity to throw the ball more than any other coach, his running backs have generally been solid producers.
Charles’ career-high in touchdowns is eight (during the 2009 and 2010 seasons) and that should increase with Reid calling the Chiefs plays. Consider Charles a mid to low tier RB1 in 2013.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 12:12 pm
Entering the 2012 season, the consensus had evolved that the stud RB draft strategy was essentially dead in the water in re-draft leagues due to the lack of quality options at the position after you got past the top seven or eight players.
That line of reasoning proved correct as the top eight players at the position managed to top 210 fantasy points (Jamaal Charles put up that total) with the Vikings Adrian Peterson putting up an astonishing 309 points despite returning from an ACL injury suffered late in the 2011 season.
After that, there was little reason to reach for a running back as the point differential from the 9th ranked fantasy running back to the 21st player at the position was just 52 points.
In 2012, waiting to grab your low end RB1 all the way down to a low end RB2 likely paid off.
Expect more of the same in 2013 with several question marks at the position as we enter what proves to be another intriguing offseason.
1. Arian Foster, Texans – Despite getting 60 more touches in 2012 (391 vs. 331), Foster’s total yards dropped from 1,841 to 1,628 as his usage (drop in receptions by 13 to 40) and effectiveness as a receiver (11.6 yards per reception in 2011 vs. 5.4 in 2012) both declined. Foster still managed more fantasy points this season courtesy of 17 touchdowns. He remains in consideration as the league’s top all purpose threat at running back and 2013’s top ranked fantasy running back. Sorry, AP fans.
 You'll need the first or second pick if you want to land AP in 2013. 2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings – With Percy Harvin on the shelf for much of 2012, the Vikings turned to Peterson and he was lights out, finishing just eight yards shy of matching Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing mark of 2,105. Over his last ten games, AP had 1,598 rushing yards to go along with ten rushing touchdowns as defenses couldn’t stop him even with eight and nine players in the box. He’s likely to be the consensus top rated fantasy running back but not here as his career-high touches in 2012 and unsettled situation at wide receiver keep AP at number two. It’s worth noting that the five previous 2,000-yard rushers combined to average 1,072 rushing yards in the following season.
3. Ray Rice, Ravens – With the Ravens moving to more of a passing attack, Rice was solid in 2012 but not quite as spectacular as he was in 2011. His total yards dropped to 1,621 as well as his touchdowns (10 from 15 in 2011). Rice’s rushing and receiving yardage were his worst since his rookie season in 2008. This is where the second tier of fantasy running backs begins.
4. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – Lynch finished the year with a career-high 1,590 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, one off his previous high set in 2011. Once the Seahawks offensive line started to gel at mid-season, he got on a hot streak, totaling 941 rushing yards and nine touchdowns over Seattle’s final nine games. Don’t expect much to change in 2013, making Lynch a top five fantasy back once again.
5. Doug Martin, Bucs – The Bucs traded back into the 1st round to grab Martin to pound the ball at opposing defenses and he did nothing to disappoint them in his rookie season. The Boise State product totaled 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground to go along with 472 yards and a score as a receiver. Martin relegated LeGarrette Blount to pure backup status and emerged as the top rookie running back in 2012. With Schiano back in 2013, expect Martin to once again approach 400 total touches (368 this year) and his fantasy production to remain steady.
6. LeSean McCoy, Eagles – McCoy was a big disappointment in 2012, finishing the year with 1,213 total yards and just five touchdowns in 12 games. With the Eagles offense unable to get in sync and left tackle Jason Peters out for the year, McCoy wasn’t the same player he was in 2011 when he finished the season with over 1,600 total yards and 20 touchdowns. A concussion caused him to miss four games near the end of the season. With Nick Foles likely taking over at quarterback, there is some risk that the Eagles offense will struggle once again in 2013.
7. Trent Richardson, Browns – Despite playing two-thirds of the season with broken ribs, Richardson put together an impressive rookie campaign despite playing in an inconsistent Browns offense. He totaled nearly 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground while contributing 51 receptions for 372 yards and a score as a receiver. While there will be a new head coach in Cleveland in 2013, one thing is for certain and that is that Richardson will get the ball plenty. With improvement from Brandon Weeden at quarterback and a pair of emerging wide receivers in Josh Gordon and Greg Little, the Browns offense could surprise next season.
8. C.J. Spiller, Bills – If you had to rank the reasons why Chan Gailey was given his walking papers by the Bills, his refusal to hand the starting reigns to Spiller has to rank at or near the top. Despite averaging 6.0 yards per carry and 10.7 yards per reception, Spiller only had 250 touches in 2012, gaining over 1,700 yards. Duh. Spiller finished as the 7th ranked fantasy running back and figures to be in that vicinity once again in 2013.
9. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – His season stat line was impressive (1,513 rushing yards, 236 receiving yards and six touchdowns) but owning Charles was an exercise in fantasy frustration in 2012. His production was wildly inconsistent (six games with less than seven fantasy points and 52.1% of his fantasy production coming in four games) as the Chiefs confounded pundits by limiting him to 16 or fewer touches in seven games. Question marks at quarterback and wide receiver (Dwayne Bowe is an unrestricted free agent) hinder Charles’ fantasy value.
10. Chris Johnson, Titans – After starting the season slowly with 108 total yards in his first three games, CJ2K (does that nickname still fit?) came on, totaling 1,361 total yards and six touchdowns over his final 13 games. The Titans offensive line was a mess and Jake Locker failed to emerge at quarterback but Johnson didn’t help matters by consistently trying for the big run rather than taking what the defense gave him. He has the potential to emerge as the top ranked fantasy rusher but his inconsistency is bound to drive his fantasy owners crazy.
11. Matt Forte, Bears – If it seemed like the Bears weren’t using Forte correctly in 2012, it’s because they weren’t. After the season general manager Phil Emery called out the team’s former coaching staff for Forte’s lack of use and effectiveness as a receiver, as he had career lows in receptions (44) and yards (340) while averaging just 7.7 yards per reception, the 2nd lowest average of his career. Expect Forte to be used more by the Bears new coaching staff and for him to emerge as a low-end RB1 in 2013.
12. Alfred Morris, Redskins – Where or where do you rank Alfred Morris? The rookie 6th round pick had an outstanding season, finishing the year as the 5th ranked fantasy running back with 1,606 rushing yards (2nd in the league) and 13 rushing touchdowns (also 2nd). Unfortunately, Morris was persona non grata as a receiver with just 11 receptions for 77 yards and we are all aware of head coach Mike Shanahan’s penchant for his brief love affairs with his running backs.
13. Stevan Ridley, Patriots – Ridley enjoyed a breakout season in 2012, finishing as the 10th ranked fantasy running back with 1,263 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. The issue with Patriots back over the last few years had been their inconsistent usage but Ridley was surprisingly consistent in 2012, gaining eight or more fantasy points in 12 of 16 games.
14. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars – After years of heavy use, MJD got a break in 2012 as a foot injury limited him to just six games. The limited use should prove to be helpful as he carried the ball more than any running back form 2009 to 2011. However, the Jaguars offense remains a mess with a questionable quarterback situation which limits MJD’s upside,
15. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys – Murray looks great when he’s healthy but that hasn’t been often during his two-year career as he has missed 13 games. A sprained foot suffered in Week 6 caused him to miss six games and his production suffered behind a bad Cowboys offensive line, limiting him to just 66.3 rushing yards per game in the ten games that he was healthy. Murray topped 100 yards in Week 1 but not again and his fantasy upside is limited by his injury issues, the team’s offensive line and the Cowboys propensity for throwing the ball.
16. Ryan Mathews, Chargers – There weren’t many bigger busts than Mathews in 2012 as he failed to live up to the Chargers offseason predictions that he would emerge as one of the league’s top talents at running back and remain healthy even with a planned increase in his workload. Mathews broke his right clavicle in the preseason and by midseason, the Chargers had clearly abandoned the heavy workload plan in an attempt to keep him healthy. A broken left clavicle in Week 15 ruined that plan and Mathews finished the year with just 707 yards on the ground to go along with a 3.8 yards per carry average and just a single touchdown.
17. Darren McFadden, Raiders – We’re into the huge talent, huge injury concern portion of the rankings with Run DMC up next. Despite playing in five more games in 2012 than in 2011 (12 vs. 7), he managed to increase his yardage total by just 197 as he was held to a career-low 3.3 yards per carry. McFadden didn’t seem to gel with the Raiders new zone-blocking scheme, whose ineffectiveness caused offensive coordinator Greg Knapp to be sent packing. Look for the Raiders to return to a power rushing attack in 2013 but a breakout season for McFadden seems unlikely given that he has missed 23 games over his five-year career.
18. Frank Gore, 49ers – Gore didn’t fall off the cliff in 2012 as many expected, finishing the season with 1,212 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, nearly identical totals as he put up in 2011. Gore will turn 30 prior to the 2013 season but neither Kendall Hunter nor LaMichael James seems ready to assume starting duties, making Gore a solid RB2 next season.
19. Reggie Bush, Dolphins – Bush will be playing somewhere in 2012 but it’s anybody’s guess as to where. Miami is clearly desperate for playmakers so a return to the Dolphins seems in order but the team has a pair of young backs in Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas that it may wish to develop. Bush fell just 14 yards shy of hitting the 1,000 rushing yard mark for the 2nd consecutive season but he still managed a solid 4.3 yards per carry on the ground while averaging 8.3 yards per catch. At 28 on opening day, Bush has lots of gas left in the tank.
20. Steven Jackson, Rams – Despite ceding touches and playing time to 7th round pick Daryl Richardson, Sjax topped 1,000 rushing yards for the 8th consecutive season, finishing the year as the 17th ranked fantasy running back. He also remained productive in the passing game with 321 receiving yards but managed just four total touchdowns for the season as the Rams struggled on offense. His contract situation is a question mark but expect Jackson to return to St. Louis in 2013 and approach 300 touches once again next season.
21. Darren Sproles, Saints – Coming off a 2011 season in which he set career highs in rushing yards, receiving yards and touchdowns, Sproles was a marginal disappointment in 2012 as a broken hand limited him to just 13 games. His PPG dropped from 11.6 to a still respectable 10.7 but his usage in the running game declined. With Sean Payton likely back in New Orleans in 2013, look for Sproles to put together another solid season.
22. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals – The Law Firm topped 1,000 rushing yards for the second time in 2012, as he finished the season strongly with four 100 yard games and 543 rushing yards between Weeks 11-15. Unfortunately, he remains a plodding runner, averaging under 4.0 yards per carry for the 2nd consecutive season. The Bengals clearly like him but with multiple 1st round picks in tow may decide that an upgrade at running back is in order.
23. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants – Bradshaw looks good and runs hard when he’s healthy but that hasn’t been often enough for the Giants liking. He topped 1,000 rushing yards for the 2nd time this season but both Andre Brown and rookie 1st round pick David Wilson showed flashes of brilliance, clouding Bradshaw’s future with the Giants. His return is likely but not guaranteed.
24. Mikel Leshoure, Lions – Leshoure was merely decent in 2012, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and gaining 798 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. He displayed some ability as a receiver with 34 receptions but ceded playing time to journeyman Joique Bell during the season, a sign the Lions weren’t satisfied with his performance. With Jahvid Best’s return in doubt, Leshoure figures to get one more crack at solidifying his hold on the starting job in 2013.
25. Shonn Greene, Jets – A free agent at season’s end, Greene set career highs in rushing attempts (276), rushing yards (1,063) and rushing touchdowns (eight) in his contract year. Unfortunately, he looked like the same old Shonn Greene plodding his way to a 3.8 yards per carry average. With little behind him on the depth chart, look for him to remain a Jet in 2013.
26. Mark Ingram, Saints – After two seasons in which he averaged 3.9 yards per carry and totaled 1,076 rushing yards, it is safe to say the Saints nabbing Ingram late in the 1st round of the 2011 draft was a mistake. The sunny side up crowd can point to his production over the last four games (250 rushing yards) as hope for 2013 but Ingram no better than a RB3 entering next season.
27. Fred Jackson, Bills – 2013 looks like the year Fjax will cede the starting job to C.J. Spiller. Jackson remains a talented player but the Bills offense sorely needs the playmaking ability which Spiller supplies and that should relinquish Jackson to backup duties. Even then, he should see enough touches to be a solid RB3 or flex option. It’s not like the Bills are loaded with other options at the offensive skill positions.
28. Vick Ballard, Colts – Ballard isn’t ever going to get in the conversation discussing the league’s top backs but the 2012 5th round pick had a solid rookie season with 814 rushing yards and 152 passing yards as he nudged his way to the starting job throughout the course of the season. He averaged 67.9 rushing yards over the Colts final 11 games and would have been a low end RB2 if not for his paltry touchdown total (two). Donald Brown and Delone Carter both return in 2013 but the starting gig is Ballard’s to lose.
29. Willis McGahee, Broncos – On the plus side, McGahee performed well in 2012, gaining 731 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 4.4 yards per carry during the ten games he played. Unfortunately, a torn MCL ended his season and backup Knowshon Moreno performed just as well in his absence, gaining 668 yards and scoring three times over the Broncos final six games. Expect a timeshare in 2013 with 2012 3rd round pick Ronnie Hillman also getting in on the action.
30. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos – See above. The Broncos backfield looks like it will resemble the Panthers backfield in 2013
31. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers – Ah, the Panthers backfield. Three solid running backs plus the league’s top rushing quarterback. Williams at least stayed healthy in 2011 and was solid down the stretch with 517 total yards and four touchdowns in his last four games.
32. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – See above. Stewart appeared to be the Panthers back to own in 2011 courtesy of his superior pass catching ability but this dude just can’t stay healthy.
33. Michael Turner, Falcons –With little tread left and a $5.5-million salary, Turner may not return to the Falcons in 2013. He averaged a career-low 3.6 yards per carry in 2012 with Atlanta turning into more of a passing team. There were several games where Turner was an afterthought in the game plan and it won’t be a surprise if the Falcons jettison the 30-year old prior to next season.
By: Dave Stringer — January 2, 2013 @ 11:05 am
At this point of the fantasy season, most fantasy owners are pondering the what ifs, could have beens and what was I thinking’s. Since it’s good to only dwell on a lost season for so long (hey, losing can teach all of us something), let’s turn the focus to the endless possibilities that exist in 2013.
As in, 2013 fantasy football domination. Up first are the quarterbacks.
 The weapons are endless for Brady. 1. Tom Brady, Patriots – Even if Wes Welker doesn’t return, Brady has more than enough weapons to be the top ranked fantasy quarterback in 2013.
2. Drew Brees, Saints – Most likely gets his buddy and head coach Sean Payton back next year and it’s likely going to be a pass heavy offense in New Orleans given the state of the team’s running backs.
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Not willing to hand him the number one ranking given that wide receiver Greg Jennings and tight end Jermichael Finley are unlikely to return to Green Bay. With Jennings injured and Finley inconsistent, Rodgers’ fantasy stock took a hit in 2012.
4. Cam Newton, Panthers – Didn’t show a pile of improvement as a passer in 2012 but piled up the fantasy points on the ground and that’s not likely to change next year. Bit of a risk at wide receiver with the aging Steve Smith leading the way for Carolina.
5. Robert Griffin III, Redskins – Injury risk is there but he was dynamite as a rookie in both the passing and rushing departments despite missing leading wide receiver Pierre Garcon for a large portion of the season. Might have hit 1,000 rushing yards had he not suffered a late season knee injury.
6. Andrew Luck, Colts – The hotshot rookie showed he is the real deal in 2012, leading the Colts to a surprising winning record and playoff spot. Luck set the rookie record for passing yards and a long string of 4,000-yard seasons seems certain.
7. Matt Ryan, Falcons – The Falcons will return in 2013 with what is likely the best wide receiver tandem in the league in Roddy White and Julio Jones but tight end Tony Gonzalez has vowed to retire, hurting Ryan’s fantasy prognosis for next season.
8. Peyton Manning, Broncos – Young wide receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas are only going to get better and Manning’s production should benefit from having a year under his belt in Denver.
9. Matthew Stafford, Lions – Immaturity, inexperience and injury hurt the Lions at wide receiver in 2012 and Stafford suffered as his touchdown passes plummeted from the 41 he put up in 2011.
10. Eli Manning, Giants – He has to be in the top 12, right? Right? Look for a bounce back season for Eli in 2013 on the assumption that Hakeem Nicks can maintain better health than he did in 2012.
11. Tony Romo, Cowboys – Romo will likely set a career high in passing yards in 2012 as he benefitted from the emergence of wide receiver Dez Bryant and the continued strong play of tight end Jason Witten. However, his interception total caused his touchdown pass totals to drop as did the team’s poor rushing attack for much of the season. A renaissance season from Miles Austin would go a long way in helping Romo’s fantasy value.
12. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers – With the wide receiver position solidified with the signing of Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams’ comeback season, Freeman figures to set career highs in passing yards and touchdowns in 2013. Those players plus Doug Martin and a solid offensive line figure to give the Bucs plenty of years of solid offensive production.
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