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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Doug Orth — August 9, 2012 @ 1:39 pm
In my continuing quest to contribute to your draft-day domination, I will compose a series of blogs over the next few weeks that focus on players that are sure to create some hardship for fantasy owners: players on the same team who play the same position that will likely have a significant fantasy impact. For those of you who regularly read and contribute to the FF Today Forums, consider this short series a distant relative to “Look-Alike Players”. My goal is to create a compelling case for and against each player before handing down a final decision. Let’s get started:
The players in question this week: Wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker
The setup: Full-point PPR; 10 rushing/receiving yards equal one fantasy point; all touchdowns are worth six fantasy points.
Current ADP (courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator): Thomas – 5.05 Decker – 6.04
What’s at stake: Grabbing the better fantasy WR2 of the two the Denver Broncos have to offer.
 Decker doesn't possess Thomas' natural talent. The case for Thomas: Raw talent. When Thomas was healthy for the first time in his pro career, it showed. From Week 13 on, Thomas dwarfed all of his teammates in just about every receiving category with Tim Tebow as his quarterback, commanding over 37% of the targets (65 of 175) over the Broncos’ final seven games, including the postseason. New QB Peyton Manning has already admitted to the Denver Post that Thomas “is a guy we’re going to feature” and CB Champ Bailey told the team’s website the 6-3, 228-pound receiver is “on top of” his route running this season. In terms of the S-W-S model (size, weight and speed) the NFL likes to use, fellow Georgia Tech alum Calvin Johnson may be Thomas’ only peer at the receiver position.
The case against Thomas: While one could question the lack of durability tag that I placed on Julio Jones last week, Thomas has a significant injury track record. He has battled a number of injuries – most notably to his hand, head (concussion) and Achilles’– since the pre-draft process in 2010. His lack of durability certainly hasn’t helped his development as an all-around receiver, although Bailey’s comments above suggest that part of his game is coming around.
The case for Decker: Route-running and the Broncos’ plans for him, which include moving him around the formation. While Decker is the same height as Thomas and actually only gives up about 10 pounds, Decker simply knows how to get open – something that was on full display when Kyle Orton ran the team for the first month as he posted a 20-270-4 line to begin last season. While it is never good to put too much stock in early training-camp returns, the consensus seems to be that Manning and Decker have “clicked” and their off-season work together shows on the field. Since Decker seems to be the clear choice for slot duties and the potential exists that Manning may not have the same arm strength he used to – due to his neck surgeries – Decker could easily finish with upwards of 100 receptions given the history Manning has with using that position (Austin Collie, Brandon Stokley).
The case against Decker: Simply put, Decker isn’t all that flashy, which makes it hard for some fantasy owners to buy into him. The 2010 third-rounder also hasn’t exactly dodged the injury bug either over his two-year pro career, although he has missed just two games – both in 2010. And while Denver has big plans for Decker, he’ll have plenty of competition for slot duties with Stokley, Andre Caldwell and Jacob Tamme all likely to get some time there as well.
The verdict: First, let me just say that both players are incredible value at their current ADP. But given the PPR format, I would side with Decker. In non-PPR, it is probably a coin flip. Perhaps it is unfair to cite durability as the main reason to rank one player over another – just as I did last week – but sometimes the best ability is availability. Flash doesn’t always produce cash; fantasy owners must be willing to look at more factors than just talent when ranking players. Sometimes, quarterbacks bond with the unexciting options they can trust and that seems to be the case with Decker. With that said, owners should be thrilled to land either player as a WR2 in a Manning-led offense because there’s very little “bust” potential here. There’s also a very good chance that at least one – if not both – of these players will be considered a fantasy WR1 at this point next season.
By: Mike Krueger — @ 9:19 am
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/9/12
Quarterbacks
- Mark Sanchez (-3) Tebow is likely to get his shot sooner or later.
- Brandon Weeden (+1) We assumed but it’s now official… Weeden will start.
- Colt McCoy (-6) McCoy’s slide continues. By the time training camp is over, I’m expecting Seneca Wallace to be the No. 2 QB.
- Kevin Kolb (-5) Poor play in first preseason game has Kolb trending downward.
Running Backs
- Trent Richardson (-2) Minor or not, surgery is surgery. It’s a red flag that sends Trent to the bottom of the tier. Depending on his progress, he may fall out of the tier 2 in the next update.
- Kevin Smith (+27) Smith’s value continues to rise with Best and Leshoure on the sidelines.
- Roy Helu (-8) Still like Helu to lead the team in fantasy production but its anyone’s guess, which one of the RBs Shanahan will play.
- Evan Royster (+16) Shanahan’s favorite… for now.
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
- Robert Housler (+2) This kid would be a stud in a better offense with a better QB.
By: Dave Stringer — August 7, 2012 @ 3:07 pm
Considered a bit of a reach when the Vikings selected him with the 12th pick in the 2011 draft, Ponder showcased some potential after replacing Donovan McNabb in the starting lineup in Week 7 but clearly needs to work on his pocket presence and following his progressions. While he is unlikely to ever become an elite NFL quarterback, Ponder displayed some play-making ability last season both as a runner and in the passing game, despite the team’s obvious deficiencies at wide receiver. Unfortunately for Ponder, the team did little to upgrade its receiving corps for the 2012 season and running back Adrian Peterson is unlikely to be back at 100% after suffering an ACL injury late last season. When Peterson was out of the lineup, defenses clamped down on Ponder and that does not bode well for his fantasy prospects early in 2012. Given the Vikings investment in him, Ponder should be considered a safe, lower-tier option as your fantasy backup and a player with solid, but not great, prospects in dynasty leagues.
The athletic Webb has played reasonably well in limited opportunities during his first two years in the league but the Vikings have clearly cast their lot with 2011 1st round pick Christian Ponder. That doesn’t bode well for Webb’s prospects and he is not worth owning other than in the deepest dynasty leagues.
Of all the question marks at running back entering the 2012 fantasy football season, none is bigger than the Vikings Adrian Peterson. A perennial candidate for the 1st overall pick in every format, Peterson tore the ACL in his left knee in Week 16 last season and there are doubts that he will be fully recovered from that injury by opening day. What is not in doubt is that Peterson will not be 100% to start the season. In fact, he may not even return to his pre-injury form at any point in 2012. Of course, when you have scored 64 touchdowns in 73 career games and averaged 92.6 rushing yards, 110.5 total yards and 16.6 FPts/G over your career while remaining mostly injury free despite being the most punishing running back in the league, you don’t need to be 100% healthy to be productive. There are plenty of question marks with Peterson in 2012 but it all boils down to where do you draft him? Let’s examine the scenarios. AP could open the season on the PUP list, forcing him to miss the first six games of the season. He could be on the roster on opening day but still miss the first 2-3 games of the year. He could split time with backup Toby Gerhart for several games and then assume a larger role as the season progresses (just in time for the fantasy playoff run). Maybe the Vikings, expected to be NFC North doormats, choose to be very cautious with their franchise player in 2012. One last scenario: since the guy is basically superhuman, maybe he doesn’t need as much time to recover from a torn ACL as other players do. If you like to play the odds, you need to assume that Peterson will rate no better than an upper tier RB2 in 2012 and hopefully he gets rolling by the end of the season… and nabbing Gerhart is an absolute must.
When Adrian Peterson suffered a torn ACL in Week 16 last season, it appeared that Gerhart, the Viking’s second round selection in the 2010 draft, would finally get an opportunity to strut his stuff, at least early in the 2012 season. Unfortunately for Gerhart, he suffered an MCL tear and off-season reports indicated that Peterson is ahead of schedule in his recovery and may be ready to play on opening day. Those factors combined relegate Gerhart to little more than Peterson’s handcuff – barring a setback in Peterson’s recovery. At best, Gerhart may be a useful flex option for the early part of the season until Peterson is fully recovered.
 Harvin will be a mid-tier WR1.
It was a tale of two seasons for Harvin in 2011, as he entered his 3rd year in the league. Expected to be a major component of the Vikings offense, the 2009 first round pick was marginally productive but hardly the explosive player that Minnesota needed him to be early in the season. Over his first seven games, Harvin accumulated 442 total yards (a respectable 63.1 per game) but failed to find the end zone. Afterwards, Harvin turned on the jets, finding the end zone eight times over the Vikings final nine games and notching 867 total yards, while averaging a nifty 15.0 FPts/G. What happened? Well, this one’s not rocket science, folks. Adrian Peterson missed four of the Vikings final nine games and part of another one, allowing Harvin to become the focal point of the team’s offense. Peterson returns from a torn ACL suffered in Week 16 and that will likely result in plenty of touches for Harvin, especially early in 2012. Will he get enough touches to top the 1,312 total yards and eight touchdowns he put up in 2011? Ask the Vikings. While they added little to one of the league’s worst group of wide receivers in the off-season, they also had Harvin sitting on the bench plenty in 2011 in an attempt to keep him fresh for returning kicks. We’ll take the gamble. Expect Harvin to be a mid-tier WR1 in 2012.
Wonderfully talented and wildly perplexing. Meet Jerome Simpson. There isn’t much that Simpson can’t do on a football field but it’s what he has done off it that caused headlines as he approached his first year with the Vikings. Felony drug charges resulted in a suspension that will cost Simpson the first three games of the 2012 season. Simpson was signed to compete for a starting spot opposite Percy Harvin but off-season reports indicate that he has struggled to learn the team’s playbook. That, along with the suspension, put his ability to become a consistent deep threat for the Vikings in doubt. Simpson clearly has upside and could earn a prominent role in a Minnesota offense desperate for some production opposite Percy Harvin. However, banking on more than his 50-reception, 725-yard, four-touchdown performance from 2011 might be overly optimistic. Consider Simpson a WR5 with upside in 2012.
With Bernard Berrian persona non grata, Jenkins started seven of the eleven games he played last season, catching 38 passes for 466 yards and three touchdowns. A torn meniscus ended his season in Week 12 and with a plethora of young wide receivers on the roster, Jenkins faces an uphill battle to retain his roster spot in 2012. With free agent addition and expected starter Jerome Simpson facing a three-game suspension to open the season, Jenkins will likely need the team’s younger receivers to underperform in training camp to remain on the Vikings roster. Even if he does, there is no point in having him on your fantasy team.
Having left the Bears after five mostly frustrating and unproductive seasons, Aromashodu was expected to challenge for a starting spot with the Vikings in his first year in Minnesota. However, he failed to earn significant playing time despite being a part of one of the league’s worst group of wide receivers. Aromashodu had three games with double digit targets but struggled to catch 13 of 36 targets in those games, finishing the season with 26 receptions for 468 yards and one touchdown. Don’t expect much more than that in 2012, provided he makes the team’s final roster.
The Vikings used a 4th round pick to acquire the speedy Wright and the diminutive wide receiver will provide insurance for Percy Harvin in the slot. At 5’10” and 182 pounds, he isn’t a candidate to line up outside so his playing time will be dictated by how well he plays inside compared to how well the team’s other young wide receivers play on the outside, with Harvin alternating between the two positions. Add it all up and Wright is waiver wire material in redraft leagues and a marginal prospect in dynasty formats.
While the Vikings used a higher pick to acquire fellow rookie wide receiver Jarius Wright, it was Childs that was the more intriguing prospect. Plagued with a slow recovery from a torn patella tendon suffered close to the end of the 2010 season, Childs was a shadow of his former self last season, catching just 21 passes for 240 yards and failing to find the end zone. However, his 40-yard dash time at his pro day improved to 4.41 from the 4.55 time he posted at the combine, signaling that he had finally regained the speed that intrigued scouts after his junior season. Unfortunately, Childs suffered a devastating injury in training camp, apparently injuring both patella tendons, ending his 2012 season and perhaps his career. He is not worth owning in any formats.
Regarded as the premier tight end in the 2011 rookie draft, Rudolph was basically red-shirted last season, catching just 26 passes for 249 yards and three touchdowns (all of his touchdowns were scored in his last seven games) as a backup to Visante Shiancoe. The Vikings chose not resign Shiancoe and with John Carlson brought on in a backup capacity, Rudolph will assume starting duties in 2012. He has sleeper potential given his solid size (6’6”, 258 pounds), which makes him a viable red zone option on a team that lacks size at the wide receiver position. However, it remains to be seen whether or not he can be a consistent weapon in the team’s passing attack. Consider him a TE2 with upside in 2012.
It seemed like a curious decision when the Seahawks signed Zach Miller prior to the 2011 season to compete with Carlson for the team’s starting tight end position, especially considering Carlson’s solid production during the 2008 and 2009 seasons. However, Seattle’s decision was validated when Carlson suffered a torn labrum in the preseason and was placed on injured reserve and no other team chose to sign him as a starter when he became a free agent at the end of last season. That left Carlson to sign with Minnesota as a backup to second year player Kyle Rudolph. Add it all up and Carlson is waiver wire material for the upcoming season.
By: Dave Stringer — August 6, 2012 @ 9:21 am
Matty Ice has been regular season nice for the Falcons. Just not so much for his fantasy owners. He is the perfect example of a player whose value to his NFL team far exceeds his value as a fantasy player. Or should we say has been the perfect example? With former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey having been hired to lead the Jaguars, Dirt Koetter assumes the coordinator position this season and he will bring a vertical passing attack to the franchise and enhanced fantasy expectations for Ryan. Let’s face it, the weapons were already in the fold and what Ryan really needed to unleash an upper tier fantasy season was an offensive philosophy that emphasized the pass. Let’s dig deeper. Will head coach Mike Smith allow Koetter to unleash Ryan and stud wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones as well as tight end Tony Gonzalez on the rest of the league? Does it matter that starting running back Michael Turner has reached the ripe old age of 30? Would you be surprised to know the Falcons, despite adding Jones to the roster, actually scored 12 fewer points in 2011 than they did in 2010? Can speedsters Jacquizz Rodgers and Harry Douglas put together solid seasons? With Ryan coming off his first 4,000-yard season (4,177) and having thrown for a career-high 29 touchdown passes in 2011, it looks like Ryan may reach elite fantasy status in 2012 for the first time in his five year career. Ryan rates a notch below the big five at quarterback this year.
 Turner's demise is exaggerated.
Let’s go on record and say the stories of Turner’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. There hasn’t been any demise. Of course, you’re reading this because you want to know if we’re projecting his demise, right? Let’s frame the arguments. Cons first. Turner had the second most carries in the league last season and he turned 30 years of age in the off-season. He has chalked up 300 or more carries in three of the last four years (he missed five games in 2009) while averaging 298 carries per year. A groin injury caused him to stumble down the stretch last season, accumulating just 280 yards and a single touchdown on 84 carries between weeks 12 and 16 before rolling over a Bucs team in Week 17 (172 yards, 2 TDs) that had clearly quit. Heading into 2012, the Falcons have said they want to emphasize the passing game more and reduce Turner’s workload with head coach Mike Smith recently stating that Turner won’t get 300 carries this season. And we all know he isn’t much of a receiver with 51 receptions during his eight-year career. Pros are up. He was the 6th ranked fantasy running back last season with 1,340 yards and 11 touchdowns. During his four years with the Falcons, he has topped 1,300 rushing yards every year other than the aforementioned 2009 season while also reaching double-digit touchdowns every year. While he is now 30, does that mean as much given that he carried the ball just 228 times over the first four years of his career with the Chargers? While Jacquizz Rodgers may emerge as a solid pass catching back, the jury is out on whether he is big enough to handle many carries out of the backfield and Jason Snelling is no threat to eat into Turner’s workload in a major way. Turner also set career highs in receptions and receiving yards last season (17 for 168) while also setting a career single game high in receptions with four during Week 16, proving that he might be ready to assume a larger role in the Falcons passing attack. Okay, those points, while true, are a reach but it did give me a chance to show you how much I research this stuff. The bottom line: Turner rates as a mid to upper tier fantasy backup in standard scoring leagues and a lower tier backup in PPR formats. And a tremendous value given the bad pub he’s been getting in the fantasy football world.
After a moderately successful rookie season in which he ran for 205 yards and caught 21 passes for 188 yards, Rodgers is slated for an expanded role in the Falcons offense in 2012. The question is how expanded will his role become? The Falcons 5th round pick in the 2011 draft, Rodgers lacks ideal size (5’6”, 196 pounds) to assume a heavy workload in the team’s offense and with Michael Turner doing the heavy lifting, Rodgers will likely get 6-8 touches per game. That’s not enough to make him a useful fantasy option. Even if Turner were to be lost to injury, Rodgers would almost certainly split the workload with Jason Snelling with Snelling assuming the short yardage role. While some are predicting a Darren Sproles type role for Rodgers, he lacks the speed that Sproles possesses. Do you get the feeling I’m not excited at the prospect of Rodgers having an expanded role? He’s a lower tier RB4 with more appeal in larger PPR leagues that employ the flex position.
The equation for success is ability, motivation and opportunity and after five years in the league, Snelling always seems to come up short on the opportunity part of that equation. When Michael Turner was injured during the 2009 season, Snelling proved he could handle a large workload by having a career year. He rushed for 613 yards, averaged 4.3 yards per carry and caught 30 passes for 259 yards while scoring five total touchdowns. It looked like he had carved out a role for himself in the Falcons backfield. Since then he has seen his touches drop in two consecutive years down to just 70 last season. In 2012, Snelling will once again split the backup role with Jacquizz Rodgers. While Snelling would likely assume the early down and goal line work in the event of a Turner injury, Rodgers would also see an expanded role, making Snelling only a moderately attractive handcuff.
The world likes its shiny new toys and there is no better example of that than witnessing Roddy White’s perceived fantasy value slide heading into the 2012 season. With the Falcons having unloaded a pile of picks in order to move up in the 2011 draft in order to draft Julio Jones and having seen his strong performance as a rookie, a large portion of the fantasy world seems set on him surpassing White to become the Falcons leading receiver in 2012. Not so fast, folks. Let’s check White’s resume over the past five seasons. Five consecutive seasons with at least 83 receptions and at least 1,153 yards. Two seasons with at least 100 receptions. Two seasons with double-digit touchdowns. Two seasons with at least 1,382 receiving yards. Twenty-nine touchdowns over the past three years. Two consecutive seasons with a league-leading 179 targets. Maybe it’s the age? Nah, he’s 30. While Jones is likely to warrant more looks in 2012 (he averaged less than six targets per game in 2011), the Falcons have said they planned on passing more this season and tight end Tony Gonzalez could end up with fewer looks given his decline over the past few years. In 2012, expect White’s production to approach his 100-reception, 1,296-yard, eight-touchdown performance from 2011. That would be good enough to make him a top three fantasy wide receiver.
Having parted ways with a boatload of draft picks in order to draft Jones with the 6th overall pick, the Falcons were expecting big things from the former Alabama product. And Jones didn’t disappoint, hauling in 54 passes for 959 yards and eight touchdowns despite a hamstring injury that caused him to miss three full games and resulted in him not being targeted in another contest. He possesses elite size and speed and his rookie performance suggests that Jones will become an elite receiver in the league. Will it happen in 2012? His explosive performance as a rookie (17.8 yards per reception and nearly 1,000 receiving yards on just 94 targets) suggests that it is possible. However, the smart money is on Jones improving on his production as a rookie but not receiving elite status just yet. Roddy White soaks up a pile of targets (leading the league in each of the last two seasons with 179) and while the Falcons plan on throwing the ball more in 2012, no one is predicting they will be amongst the league leaders in passing attempts. Jones shapes up as one of the top three dynasty league wide receivers along with Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green and as a lower tier WR1 in 2012.
After a largely disappointing 2010 season in which he caught just 22 passes for 294 yards and a touchdown, Douglas bounced back last season to post career highs in all receiving categories with 39 receptions for 498 yards and a pair of scores. Perhaps most importantly, he developed more chemistry with quarterback Matt Ryan, catching 62.9% of his targets after hauling in just 41.5% in 2010. While Douglas has displayed some decent playmaking ability at times (witness his eight reception, 133 yard performance against the Saints in Week 10), he is primarily a slot receiver playing in an offense that features perhaps two of the league’s top 10 wide receivers in Roddy White and Julio Jones as well as a future Hall of Famer in tight end Tony Gonzalez. Consistent opportunity just isn’t what is in store for Douglas in 2012. He is only worth owning if White or Jones are out for a significant period of time.
After appearing to be in serious decline in 2010, producing his lowest reception (70) and yardage (656) totals since the 1998 season, last year Gonzalez put together the most productive season of his three year stint in Atlanta, finishing as the 4th ranked fantasy tight end. With Roddy White and Julio Jones taking the focus off, Gonzalez finished the year with 80 receptions for 875 yards and seven touchdowns. He figures to be plenty motivated in 2012 having stated that this will be the last season of his illustrious Hall of Fame career. While Gonzalez might be motivated, the Falcons aren’t likely to be as motivated to get him the ball. If White and Jones remain healthy, look for a slightly reduced role for Gonzalez. He simply isn’t worth forcing the ball to anymore given his lack of ability after the catch. Consider Gonzalez a low end fantasy starter in 2012.
By: Dave Stringer — August 4, 2012 @ 1:48 pm
There weren’t many worries with Freeman entering last season after he had an outstanding year in 2010 with 3,451 yards and 26 touchdowns with just six interceptions. Unfortunately for Freeman owners he slumped badly in 2011 – his interceptions skyrocketing to 22 as he was victimized by his own poor decision-making and the sophomore slump that wide receiver Mike Williams experienced. Not helping matters was the team’s other sophomore receiver, Arrelious Benn, failed to develop. While Freeman clearly slumped on the field, his fantasy production actually went up 0.1 PPG to 19.4, padded by his four rushing touchdowns. There appears to be bright skies ahead for Freeman with the arrival of former Charger Vincent Jackson. Jackson’s presence will allow Williams to slide into more of a secondary role and provide Freeman with his first true established deep threat at wide receiver. Freeman ranks as a mid-tier fantasy backup with considerable upside in 2012.
 Tampa's rookie runner should make a big fantasy impact.
With LeGarrette Blount failing to build upon his solid rookie season and struggling for much of 2011, the Bucs traded back into the first round of this year’s draft to select Doug Martin. A solid all around running back, the Boise State product has decent size (5’9”, 223 pounds), agility and speed and excelled as a receiver and pass blocker in college. Martin’s skill set sets him apart from Blount, who has struggled in a receiving role and is more of a power runner. That makes Martin the favorite to open the season as the team’s starter and earn a significant amount of touches in 2012. Given the addition of guard Carl Nicks, further improving an already solid offensive line, and new head coach Greg Schiano’s preference to run the ball, Martin is a breakout candidate this season. The only issue dampening his fantasy prospects is that Blount is likely to earn the goal line work, which limits Martin’s touchdown potential. Consider Martin a mid to lower tier RB2 in 2012 and an outstanding dynasty league prospect.
Blount was a revelation for the Bucs as an undrafted rookie free agent picked up on the waiver wire after being released in the preseason by the Titans. He assumed the starting role at midseason for an ineffective Cadillac Williams and finished the season with 1,007 rushing yards and six touchdowns while averaging an impressive 5.0 yards per carry. However, his limitations as a receiver and pass blocker were evident and with the Bucs often playing from behind, Blount struggled mightily, finishing the year with 781 rushing yards and five touchdowns. He was especially ineffective down the stretch, accumulating just 137 yards and one touchdown on 46 carries over the Bucs final five games. His struggles caused the Bucs to draft Boise State product Doug Martin late in the first round of this year’s draft and he has entered training camp ahead of Blount in the pecking order at running back. While there are no guarantees that Martin will excel in his rookie season, he will get the first crack at earning a significant amount of playing time with Blount likely to get the goal line work and subbing in as a change of pace option. Consider Blount a low end RB4 entering the season and a potential flex option in larger leagues.
With second-year players Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn suffering through sophomore slumps in 2011, the Buccaneers were in the market for a big play wide receiver and Jackson figures to take over as the team’s top threat in 2012. Jackson signed a five-year, $55-million contract with Tampa Bay that includes $36-million in payments over the first three years of the deal. The former Division II player out of Northern Colorado possesses excellent size at 6’5” and 230 pounds and speed as his career average yards per catch of 17.5 indicates. Jackson has also shown the ability to out jump defenders on deep balls. Removing his injury-marred, suspension and contract holdout shortened 2010 season, Jackson caught 187 passes for 3,371 yards and 25 touchdowns during the 2008, 2009 and 2011 seasons. However, that production was in San Diego. He goes from catching passes from one of the top quarterbacks in the league and playing in the league’s 5th ranked scoring offense to playing with a far more inexperienced quarterback coming off a horrible season and playing in the league’s 27th ranked scoring offense. Jackson was the 10th ranked fantasy wide receiver in 2011 but he rates as a mid-tier WR2 in 2012. Simply put, Josh Freeman is coming off a horrendous season and has not proven to be as accurate on deep passes as Philip Rivers and those plays have been Jackson’s bread and butter throughout his career.
Williams wasn’t a complete bust last season but he was clearly a huge disappointment, as his yardage and touchdown totals plummeted from his rookie year in 2010 when he caught 64 passes for 955 yards and 11 touchdowns. With Vincent Jackson in the fold, Williams’ chances of matching his rookie production are unlikely, although it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if he approaches 1,000 receiving yards. However, given Jackson’s size and ability to stretch the field, Williams figures to be featured on more short and intermediate routes in 2012 and his red zone opportunities also figure to be diminished so a double-digit touchdown performance won’t be in the cards. Williams rates as a WR4 but is worth taking a flier on provided he shows a renewed dedication and remains in better physical condition.
Entering his 2nd season in the league and coming off an unproductive rookie season, not much was expected of Parker. That won’t be the case in 2012. After putting together a solid season with 40 receptions for 554 yards and three touchdowns, Parker will challenge Sammie Stroughter for the team’s slot receiving role until Arrelious Benn returns from a sprained MCL suffered in late July. The former undrafted 6’0”, 200 pound free agent from North Alabama figures to have the upper hand in that battle. While Parker is shifty enough to be successful out of the slot, he lacks deep speed and is unlikely to deliver many big plays, limiting his fantasy upside. He also struggled down the stretch in 2011, catching 12 passes for 171 yards and no touchdowns over his final seven games. With the Bucs expected to feature Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams, Parker isn’t worth owning in 2012.
If there was any further evidence needed that NFL’s teams don’t take long in making up their mind about a player, we can add Benn’s history to the pile. Drafted in the 2nd round in 2010, Benn was expected to take over as the team’s lead wide receiver as early as that season, as the team entered the season with no established veterans at the wide receiver position. Unfortunately for Benn, fellow rookie Mike Williams took over as the team’s lead receiver and just when Benn was beginning to show some promise near the end of the season, he suffered a torn ACL in Week 16. As expected, Benn struggled following the ACL injury, finishing last season with just 30 receptions for 441 yards and three touchdowns. That prompted the Bucs to sign former Charger Vincent Jackson, dropped Benn out of the starting lineup and dropping his fantasy value to nil other than in the largest of leagues and in dynasty formats. A sprained right MCL early in training camp further clouds his 2012 prognosis. Unless he does the unexpected and beats out Mike Williams, Benn isn’t worth owning in 2012. Grab him off the waiver wire if he proves worthy.
Stroughter played well as a rookie in 2009, notching 31 receptions for 334 yards and a touchdown before breaking his foot late in the year. He played mostly out of the slot in 2010, seeing a decline in his production to 25 receptions for 248 yards and was even worse in 2011, playing in just six games and catching four passes for 52 yards. Having seen a decline in production for two straight years, Stroughter is unlikely to beat out Preston Parker for the team’s slot receiving role and the 2009 7th round pick may not even be on the Bucs roster on opening day.
When new Bucs head coach Greg Schiano decided to send a message to his team’s roster by releasing Kellen Winslow, it opened a door for former Colts tight end Dallas Clark to join the team. Unfortunately, it is doubtful that it opened a door for Clark to regain the fantasy glory that he enjoyed in the 2009 season when he topped 1,100 receiving yards and scored 10 touchdowns. With Schiano expected to install a run heavy offense, Clark’s limited blocking ability will negatively impact his playing time. Not helping matters is the presence of 2nd year player Luke Stocker, who will likely be the team’s main blocking tight end and who the Bucs feel could develop into a solid pass catcher. Clark will likely have a few solid games in 2012 but he is best used as bye week filler in most leagues.
The Bucs 2011 4th round pick, Stocker played little as a rookie catching 12 passes for 92 yards in a reserve role behind Kellen Winslow. With Winslow having been traded to Seattle and Dallas Clark signed as a free agent, Stocker’s chances for a bigger role in 2012 were increased. Given Clark’s poor blocking ability, Stocker has an opportunity to win the starter’s job and the Bucs like his potential as a solid all-around tight end. However, he is unlikely to be a solid fantasy option this season splitting time with Clark and slot receiver Preston Parker coming off a breakout season in 2011. Grab Stocker off the waiver wire if he surprises early in 2012 and consider him a lower tier dynasty prospect.
By: Dave Stringer — August 2, 2012 @ 5:40 pm
After scoring just 16 touchdowns during the 2010 season, the Panthers used the 1st pick in the 2011 draft to acquire Newton. With Newton leading the offense from Week 1, Carolina scored 48 touchdowns despite him not having the benefit of a full off-season, easily justifying his selection as the top overall pick. Along the way, Newton became the first rookie to throw for over 400 yards in his first game, set the rookie record for passing yards in one game with 432, set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback with 14 and broke Peyton Manning’s record of 3,739 passing yards for a rookie, finishing the season with 4,051. He also threw for 21 touchdowns and amassed 706 rushing yards on his way to becoming the 4th ranked fantasy quarterback in 2011. By season’s end, Newton had put to rest any notion that he was not ready to lead a pro style offense. If you are looking for any reason to doubt Newton in 2012, here it is. He was held to under 200 yards passing in each of his last three games and over his last six games, he averaged just 194 passing yards per game. Of course, he more than made up for that by throwing for nine touchdowns and rushing for 295 yards and rushing for five touchdowns. At season’s end, Newton was the fourth ranked fantasy quarterback, with his 14 rushing touchdowns helping propel him to that spot. However, rushing touchdowns from the quarterback position can be volatile and as a precautionary tale, look no further than Michael Vick, whose rushing touchdowns plummeted from nine in 2010 to just one in 2011. Put another way – can we trust Newton to average one rushing touchdown every nine carries again in 2012? While Newton is a top five ranked fantasy quarterback for 2012, he carries far more risk than any of the other options surrounding him in the rankings.
When Stewart gets a chance to run the ball, he looks good (career average of 4.9 yards per carry). He just doesn’t get a chance to run it enough (career low 142 carries last season). In 2011, Stewart split carries with DeAngelo Williams in the Panthers backfield but both players were behind quarterback Cam Newton in terms of getting short yardage work. If that situation wasn’t bad enough, the Panthers backfield got even more crowded in the off-season with the acquisition of former Charger Mike Tolbert, who was a TD vulture in San Diego, scoring 21 times over the past two seasons and caught 54 passes in 2011. His presence will make it difficult for Stewart to match his production from last season – five total touchdowns, 761 rushing yards to go along with career-highs in receptions (47) and receiving yards (413). While Stewart is a solid player entering his contract year, he shapes up as no better than a mid-tier to low end RB3 this season with little upside barring an injury in the Panthers backfield.
The Panthers showed their commitment to Williams in the off-season, signing him to a five-year, $43-million contract that included $21-million in guarantees. Then they showed their commitment to a RBCC approach by signing free agent Mike Tolbert to supplement an already crowded Panthers backfield. And, of course, kill Williams’ chances of duplicating the success he enjoyed during his career year in 2008 (1,518 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns). There are two problems with owning Williams on your fantasy roster. One is that he sits 4th in the pecking order for short yardage touches behind quarterback Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart and Tolbert. The other is that he doesn’t catch the ball with just 27 receptions over the past two years. So, his fantasy production comes from rushing yards (54.4 yards per game over the past two seasons) and long touchdown runs (five touchdown runs of 22 yards or more in 2011). That isn’t a recipe for fantasy glory but it is a recipe for major inconsistency (eight games with less than five fantasy points). Consider Williams a low end RB3 in 2012.
Tolbert was an unexpected fantasy star in 2010 and he followed that up with another solid season in 2011, averaging more than 10 FPts/G for the second consecutive year. In 2010, he ran for a career-high 735 yards and piled up 11 rushing touchdowns. Last season, he took a slightly different path, producing 490 rushing yards, 433 receiving yards and ten total touchdowns (two through the air). While Tolbert was a solid producer in San Diego, he faces an uncertain future in a crowded Panthers backfield. Tolbert is clearly the third most talented running back on the roster behind Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams but he is a better short yardage runner than either of those players. Unfortunately for Tolbert, the Panthers main threat on short yardage rushing players is quarterback Cam Newton. While Tolbert excelled as a receiver with the Chargers, he will likely split that role with Stewart in 2012. Add it all up and Tolbert shapes up as a player who will likely put a damper on the fantasy production of Stewart and Williams but not produce enough to make him worth owning in the majority of leagues.
 Steve Smith: An ideal WR2.
In 2010, Smith looked undersized, old and on the decline during a disappointing season in which he finished the year with 46 receptions for 554 yards and a pair of touchdowns in 14 games, his least productive season since his injury shortened campaign in 2004. Turns out, the issue wasn’t Smith – it was the play of the team’s quarterbacks. With Cam Newton under certain, Smith enjoyed a renaissance year in 2011, catching 79 passes for 1,394 yards and seven touchdowns. While the numbers were impressive, Smith’s production tailed off as the season wound down. With defenses focused on slowing down the Panthers big play passing attack, Smith caught just 33 passes for 476 yards and three touchdowns over the team’s final eight games. In 2012, the question is what Smith are we buying? The one that was a revelation over the first half of the season with 46 receptions for 918 yards and four touchdowns? Or the second half version? One guy shapes up as a WR1 while the second shapes up as a WR3. Let’s split the difference and call Smith a WR2 in 2012.
The Panthers need somebody to emerge as a starter opposite Steve Smith at wide receiver and the smart money is on LaFell. The team’s 2010 3rd round pick out of Louisiana State has largely disappointed during his first two years in the league, failing to catch 50% of his targets as a rookie and falling behind the forgettable Legedu Naanee on the depth chart in 2011. The silver lining to LaFell’s season was that he seemed to finally be putting it together near the end of the year. After being targeted less than three times per game over the first nine games of the season, LaFell was targeted 30 times over the final seven games of the year, catching 18 passes for 310 yards and a score. Sure, the one touchdown was a 91-yarder which obviously padded his production but it is worth noting that he averaged a nifty 17.0 yards per reception last season, showcasing the playmaking ability the Panthers hoped they were getting when they drafted him. LaFell has a nice blend of size and speed to go along with a solid opportunity. He is worth taking a flier on in the late rounds of most fantasy drafts.
The Panthers 2010 6th round pick, Gettis unexpectedly emerged as a starter during his rookie season, catching 37 passes for 508 yards and three touchdowns although a large portion of that production came in just two games (10 receptions for 217 yards and all three of his touchdowns). Truth be told, his starter’s status was more due to the Panthers lack of talent at the wide receiver position than his own performance. Nonetheless, Gettis was expected to take a step forward in 2011 before a preseason ACL tear landed him on injured reserve. With Gettis out of the lineup, Brandon LaFell took over in the starting lineup and the Panthers plan on giving him every opportunity to hold onto that role. In addition, the Panthers traded for Louis Murphy in the preseason, which may be a sign that they aren’t convinced that Gettis’ knee is fully recovered. Gettis shapes up as waiver wire material in 2012.
A couple of years ago, Murphy was getting some love as a potential breakout candidate due to his solid rookie season in 2009. Of course, the one major disclaimer from that season was that he caught just 35.4% of his targets and that proved to be the most telling statistic from his rookie campaign. After three years in the league, the 2009 4th round pick was buried on the Oakland depth chart, leading to his preseason trade to the Panthers. In Carolina, Murphy is insurance in the event Brandon LaFell struggles and David Gettis is slow to recover from the ACL injury that ended his 2011 season. Barring his ascension to the starting lineup, Murphy is waiver wire fodder in 2012.
Looking to add some punch to their receiving corps and in the return game, the Panthers grabbed Joe Adams in the 4th round of this year’s draft. While Adams showcased some playmaking ability in college at Arkansas, offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski doesn’t have a history of showcasing the slot position. That doesn’t bode well for Adams’ fantasy prospects during his rookie season.
The Panthers used a 2010 3rd round pick to acquire Edwards in the hopes of converting the college quarterback to a wide receiver in the pros. After two seasons and no receptions, it’s safe to say that the Panthers massively overreached in drafting Edwards. If the writing wasn’t on the wall with the selection of Joe Adams in the 4th round of this year’s draft, it certainly became clear that Edwards roster spot was in jeopardy when the team acquired Louis Murphy in the preseason.
Finally free from the shackles of being a starting tight end in a Mike Martz led offense, Olsen had a chance to fulfill the promise that led him to being a 1st round pick of the Bears in the 2008 draft. And for half a season, it looked like Olsen might be on the verge of fulfilling that promise. In his first eight games, he caught 30 passes for 359 yards and four touchdowns, averaging a solid 7.5 FPts/G which would have allowed him to finish as a top ten fantasy tight end. Unfortunately, he tailed off badly over the final half of the season with 15 receptions for 181 yards and a single touchdown. Worse yet, Olsen was completely AWOL in the Panthers final three games with just four targets. Although Olsen occasionally shows glimpses of the talent that made him a 1st round pick, the bottom line is that his career highs all came in the 2008 season when he caught 60 passes for 612 yards and eight touchdowns. In today’s world, that would make him a solid backup fantasy tight end. While somebody might sell you on the fact that Olsen will get Jeremy Shockey’s looks now that he is no longer in Carolina, that’s snake oil since the Panthers are now better equipped at the wide receiver position.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 4:43 pm
With his record-setting passing performance in 2011, Brees finished the season as the top ranked fantasy quarterback, averaging 29.5 FPts/G. He eclipsed Dan Marino’s single-season passing yardage record with 5,476 yards while throwing for a career-high 46 touchdowns. Better yet, he cut down on his interceptions, going from a career-high 22 in 2010 to just 14 last season. Things couldn’t be looking rosier, right? Well, Bountygate has put a cloud over the Saints and Brees’ outlook for the 2012 season with head coach Sean Payton suspended for the entire year. Payton’s absence has to have a negative impact on the team’s offensive production and let’s face it; it is folly to chase last year’s fantasy production so predicting 5,500 passing yards and 45 touchdowns for Brees is foolhardy. Brees will remain a fantasy stud in 2012 but 5,000 yards and 35-40 touchdown passes seems far more realistic. After Aaron Rodgers, Brees deserves consideration as being the number two quarterback on your draft board along with Tom Brady, Matt Stafford and Cam Newton.
The Saints signed Sproles to a multi-year contract during the 2011 offseason and the expectation was that he would serve as a pass catching threat out of the backfield as well as spice up the team’s return game. Let’s just say that for $14-million over four years, the Saints got an absolute bargain. Sproles set career highs in rushing yards with 603, receptions with 86, receiving yards with 710 and receiving touchdowns with seven while averaging 11.6 FPts/G. Is a repeat performance in 2012 in the cards? Why not? Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram figure to handle the majority of the work on rushing downs but when you chuck the ball around as much as the Saints do, there aren’t many rushing downs. Since Sproles hauled in an amazing 77.5% of his targets and averaged 8.3 yards per reception, a short pass to him beats a running play in most instances. While the Saints are unlikely to move Sproles into the starting lineup, he certainly ranks as their top fantasy running back entering the 2012 season. Sproles shapes up as a mid-tier RB2 in standard scoring formats and an upper tier RB2 in PPR leagues.
The Saints traded back into the first round of the 2011 draft in order to select Ingram, the top rated running back in that year’s draft. While big things were expected of him, knee and turf toe injuries limited his effectiveness as a rookie and caused him to miss six games. With just 474 rushing yards and five touchdowns, Ingram was a disappointment as he struggled to show much explosiveness. Off-season knee surgery and a crowded Saints backfield cloud his fantasy outlook for 2012. The biggest issue is whether Ingram is really as mediocre as he looked last season or whether injuries hampered his ability to show his true ability as a runner. While no one is predicting a breakout season, you could make the argument that he ranks as a worthy RB3 with upside provided he can stay healthy and become the Saints full time short yardage option, a role he shared with Pierre Thomas last season. Don’t reach for Ingram hoping he becomes a bell cow runner in the Saints explosive offense. However, he looks good as a lower end RB3 in standard scoring leagues. Knock him down further in PPR formats since he showed little ability as a pass catcher as a rookie and the Saints have one of the league’s top receiving backs in Darren Sproles.
The Saints love Thomas and his versatility. Unfortunately, they didn’t like him enough entering last season to not draft Mark Ingram and sign Darren Sproles in free agency. Interestingly, it wasn’t the presence of Sproles that caused Thomas’ fantasy value to decline (he caught a career-high 50 passes), it was having to split goal line work with Ingram. Removing the 2010 season in which he appeared in just six games, Thomas’ touchdowns have declined from 12 to eight to six. He was worth owning as a low end RB2 in 2008 and 2009 while averaging double digit fantasy PPG despite averaging between 10-13 touches per game. That wasn’t the case in 2011 though, as his average PPG dropped to 8.4. With Ingram expected to be healthy in 2012 and Sproles coming off a career-season, not much is expected to change for Thomas. Basically, he needs Ingram or Sproles to be out with an injury to be a useful fantasy contributor but the presence of Chris Ivory even clouds that prognosis.
Due to knee issues, Colston wasn’t getting much love from either the Saints or fantasy football enthusiasts entering the 2011 season. However, after a solid season in which he caught 80 of his 107 targets (an amazing 74.8% completion rate) for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns, he got some love this off-season from the Saints in the form of a five-year, $40-million contract. After missing Weeks 2 and 3 with an injury and struggling in his Week 4 return, Colston caught fire over the Saints last 11 games, putting up 985 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, making him the 3rd ranked wide receiver over that period. Then he put up 256 receiving yards and a score in two playoff games. The evidence is there that it’s time to give Colston some fantasy love in 2012. It’s time to quit focusing on the lack of targets and start focusing on his consistent high level of production. Removing the 2008 season in which he missed five games due to injury, Colston has topped 1,000 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in his five other seasons, averaging 1,096 receiving yards and 8.6 touchdowns in those years. Consider Colston a mid-tier WR1 in 2012.
It has been three long years since Moore’s breakout season in 2008 when he came out of nowhere to catch 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns. He followed that up with an injury-plagued 2009 season and a pair of mildly productive seasons in 2010 and 2011, averaging 59 receptions for 695 yards and eight touchdowns in those years. In 2012, the 5’9”, 190 pound Toledo product will get a chance to replicate his 2008 success due to the departure of Robert Meachem and the likelihood the Saints will once again feature a pass happy offense. Moore will battle Devery Henderson for a starting spot opposite Marques Colston but the reality is that New Orleans is likely to continue spreading the ball around to many receivers. That limits Moore’s upside even if he opens the season as a starter. In addition, it is hard to imagine Moore continue to score a touchdown every 7.5 receptions as he has over the past four seasons. Moore should be drafted as a solid WR4 who will likely have a number of double-digit scoring weeks as well as a few duds in 2012.
On the surface, Henderson fantasy prospects for 2012 would appear to be on the upswing with the departure of Robert Meachem to the Chargers. However, after eight largely mediocre seasons, it is difficult to predict a breakout season at age 30 for Henderson. He has averaged 33 receptions for 484 yards and 1.5 touchdowns over the past two years and has just 11 touchdowns over the past five seasons, despite possessing outstanding deep speed. Henderson is bye week filler and not exactly one you want to rely on for anything more than a game or two.
The Saints used a 4th round pick on the 6’4”, 218 pound Wisconsin product but the expectation is that Toon will have a marginal role as a rookie in 2012. His scouting profile reads that he has solid route running ability but lacks deep speed and being the son of a former NFL wide receiver (Al Toon) will help get acclimated to the NFL faster than most rookies. However, expected starters Marques Colston and Lance Moore both lacking upper tier deep speed, Devery Henderson is the odds of favorite to be the Saints third wide receiver. Toon will also need to surpass fifth year wide receiver Adrian Arrington to earn playing time. Toon is a lower tier prospect in dynasty leagues and a player with more value in PPR leagues.
Entering his 5th year in the league, Arrington has frequently been mentioned as a player that the Saints like. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been backed up by his inclusion in the team’s game plans so “like” has turned into nine receptions in four years. Barring Arrington surprisingly unseating Devery Henderson and rookie Al Toon to win the third receiver role, you can drop Arrington from your cheatsheet.
 You can make a case from Graham being the #1 fantasy tight end.
As expected, Graham enjoyed a breakthrough season in 2011, catching 99 passes for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns. The scary part is that his production last year might just be the tip of the iceberg given his relative inexperience as a football player. Graham emerged as quarterback Drew Brees’ preferred option in the passing game, finishing the year 149 targets, good enough for 6th in the league. Graham has solid hands and enough speed to get deep as well as excellent ability to adjust to passes, making him a great option in the red zone. While Rob Gronkowski was clearly a fantasy beast in 2011, there is a strong argument that Graham has more upside than the Patriots tight end. While Gronkowski will almost surely be the first tight end taken in most fantasy drafts, Graham may end up representing better value as the second tight end off the board.
A concussion limited Thomas to five games last season but he has proven to be reasonably productive given his inconsistent use. If Jimmy Graham were to go down, Thomas would likely be a viable TE2 given the lack of depth at the wide receiver position compared to previous seasons.
By: Doug Orth — @ 4:21 pm
In my continuing quest to contribute to your draft-day domination, I will compose a series of blogs over the next few weeks that focus on players that are sure to create some hardship for fantasy owners: players on the same team who play the same position that will likely have a significant fantasy impact. For those of you who regularly read and contribute to the FF Today Forums, consider this short series a distant relative to “Look-Alike Players”. My goal is to create a compelling case for and against each player before handing down a final decision. Let’s get started:
The players in question this week: Wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones
The setup: Full-point PPR; 10 rushing/receiving yards equal one fantasy point; all touchdowns are worth six fantasy points.
Current ADP (courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator): White – 3.07 Jones – 3.04
What’s at stake: Grabbing the better fantasy WR1 of the two the Atlanta Falcons have to offer.
The case for White: Proven consistency. Fantasy owners often chase the shiny new toy when it becomes clear everybody else wants that same toy, often forgetting how much they enjoyed their last favorite toy. White has secured at least 149 targets in each of the four seasons he has played with QB Matt Ryan, finishing first in the NFL in that category each of the last two years after a second-place finish in 2009. While it probably isn’t the worst thing in the world for White or the Falcons if they reduce their reliance on him and place more on Jones’ plate, the high-target total also tells us that Ryan obviously has a strong level of trust with White, something that tends to win out over talent in the short term – or at least until the point where the talent of one receiver is undeniably better than the other receiver.
The case against White: A reduced role and – let’s face it – Jones is just more explosive at this point of their careers. Not that he cares one way or the other about his fantasy stock, but White surprised many when he personally announced that his role would be reduced in new OC Dirk Koetter’s offense. It’s not exactly as if prognosticators didn’t see this eventual passing of the torch coming, but for the player himself to announce it was happening created even more buzz for Jones. White will also turn 31 during the season, meaning he will be a year or two past his athletic prime. Since Jones has already asserted his dominance as a big-play deep threat, does White begin to get boxed into the possession-receiver role of this offense even more?
 Fantasy owners are drooling over Julio Jones. The case for Jones: Can fantasy owners help but be impressed by how dominant Jones was down the stretch last season? Jones was the second-most productive receiver in PPR leagues during Weeks 14-16 – the fantasy playoffs – last season, which started just two weeks after he returned from his second hamstring-related absence. Consider for a minute the rookie averaged five catches for 98.25 yards and 1.5 touchdowns over the final four games of the regular season and it is no wonder why owners are drooling over him. Jones has reportedly been very impressive during the off-season and the early part of training camp, doing nothing to dispel the notion that he will be anything less than elite in 2012. HC Mike Smith has even went so far to suggest that Jones is a faster version of Terrell Owens, which must be music to his keeper and dynasty league owners since he has been anything but a distraction his entire career.
The case against Jones: Durability. Lost in the meteoric rise of Jones as a top-five fantasy WR is the fact that he hasn’t been a model of health in recent years. Just in the past year-plus, he needed foot surgery during the 2011 off-season and battled hamstring issues for much of his rookie season. During his college days at Alabama, he broke a bone in his hand in 2010 and battled through a knee injury and sports hernia surgery in 2009. Granted, it is a bit nit picky to be downgrading a young receiver for legitimate injuries suffered while playing in a physical, ball-control offense in college and his rookie year in the NFL, but White has yet to miss a game in his seven-year pro career. All the talent and run-after-catch ability in the world isn’t going to help fantasy owners if he can only bring his A-game for half a season.
The verdict: In general, I will always lean toward the more durable and proven commodity in situations like this simply because owners need consistent weekly production from their high draft choices and White has provided that over the years. So while Ryan is obviously comfortable with Jones, it will take a while for that combination to approach the rapport Ryan and White have. However, the line between these two receivers in fantasy is so razor-thin that choosing between them depends on the format. For example, if your league uses non-PPR scoring and/or rewards big plays, then I give the advantage to Jones. In PPR leagues, I would opt for White.
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