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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — June 21, 2012 @ 3:11 pm
With Chad Henne sidelined for much of last season, Moore started a career-high 12 games and did a serviceable job, throwing for just under 2,500 yards with 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Entering training camp, he sits atop the Dolphins depth chart at quarterback but it appears to be only a matter of time before he is relegated to a backup role behind 2012 1st round pick Ryan Tannehill. Moore’s fantasy fortunes hinge on the Dolphins getting out of the gate early and remaining in the playoff picture as long as possible. However, with a rookie head coach and a rebuilding roster, look for the Dolphins to struggle in 2012 and for Tannehill to take over by midseason. You have better options.
Desperate for help at the quarterback position and unable to acquire a solid veteran free agent to bolster the position, the Dolphins used the 8th pick in the 2012 draft to acquire Tannehill. The Texas A&M product is a converted wide receiver and scouting reports indicate he is a raw prospect who will require extensive seasoning before becoming a solid NFL starting quarterback. Unfortunately for Miami fans, Tannehill may not be afforded the luxury of time given the state of the Dolphins quarterback depth chart. Veteran retreads Matt Moore and David Garrard are Miami’s other options and neither is considered a viable long-term option at the position. That means Tannehill will likely join the starting lineup sooner than he should and the Dolphins passing attack will take its lumps with him under center. Considering the team’s lack of talent at the wide receiver position where the current starters (Brian Hartline and Davone Bess) wouldn’t start for nearly any other team in the league, Tannehill will have little help once he joins the starting lineup. Avoid owning Tannehill in 2012 but consider him a mid-tier prospect in dynasty leagues.
After being released by the Jaguars during the 2011 preseason, Garrard spent the rest of the season out of football as he rehabilitated an existing back injury. He joined the Dolphins in the offseason and will be part of a three-player competition for the team’s starting quarterback position along with incumbent starter Matt Moore and rookie 1st round pick Ryan Tannehill. Let’s just say that at this point, Garrard is the clear underdog in that battle. Given his status and the state of the Dolphins receiving corps, you can safely pull his name of your cheatsheets.
After five mostly injury-plagued and somewhat disappointing seasons in New Orleans, Bush was traded to the Dolphins prior to training camp last season. Most pundits expected that Bush would continue to tease with his potential and fall short of the lofty expectations that accompanied him based on his outstanding college career, culminating in the Saints drafting him with the 2nd overall pick in the 2006 draft. Although Miami’s oft-stated objective was to make Bush a workhorse back, that was met with much skepticism given that the team had traded up in the 2nd round to acquire Kansas State product Daniel Thomas. Bush started the season slowly, gaining just 243 rushing yards, 97 receiving yards and scoring once in the team’s first six games. After that, he came on strong, rushing for 854 yards and six touchdowns while chipping in 199 receiving yards over last nine games. During that stretch, he topped 100 rushing yards five times, including his final four games, and hit double-digit fantasy points eight times. In 15 games (he sat out Week 17 with a knee injury), Bush set career-highs in rushing attempts with 217 (60 more than his previous high set in 2007), rushing yards with 1,097 and rushing touchdowns with six. The Dolphins scaled back his involvement in the passing game and he averaged fewer than three receptions per game for the first time in his career. For 2012, Bush rates as a risky high-end RB2 and it will be a surprise if he matches the 11th place running back ranking he had in 2011 given the new west coast offense being installed by head coach Joe Philbin. Expect Bush to be more of a hybrid back with less running up the middle or more time spent slit out wide as a receiver.
Entering 2011, Thomas was in a virtual dead heat with fellow Saints rookie Mark Ingram in the battle to be the top first-year running back taken in fantasy drafts. While Ingram was joining a high powered Saints offense, he was staring at a running back by committee situation with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles while Thomas appeared destined to be the lead back in a rotation with the injury-prone Reggie Bush. Unfortunately for Thomas, on his way to fantasy stardom, Bush enjoyed the healthiest and most productive year of his career. Meanwhile, Thomas was the more injury-prone of the two players, missing three games and playing several others with an assortment of injuries. After rushing for 107 and 95 yards in his first two games, Thomas highest rushing total over the balance of the season was 73 yards and he had more than 50 yards in just two more games. Even more unimpressive was that he was billed as a power back coming out of college but failed to find the end zone once despite amassing 165 rushes. Throw in a 3.5 average yards per carry and Thomas’ rookie season was a disaster. With new head coach Joe Philbin installing a west coast offense, Thomas’ value in Miami is based on his size and ability as a short yardage runner. He currently rates as a RB4 but the risk is that intriguing rookie 4th round pick Lamar Miller may supplant him as Bush’s handcuff by opening day.
With Miller surprisingly remaining undrafted in the 4th round of this year’s draft, the Dolphins pounced, moving up to acquire the former University of Miami speedster. At 5’11” and 212 pounds, he has solid size to go along with his 4.4 40-yard speed. Miller was available in the 4th round due to injury concerns but likely would have otherwise been a 2nd round selection. Unfortunately, he will enter training camp 3rd on the depth chart behind Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas. However, given Bush’s injury history and Thomas’ ineffectiveness as a rookie, Miller could surprise in 2012. He is worth drafting in deeper redraft leagues and rates as an upper tier prospect in dynasty formats.
With the Texans, Slaton burst onto the scene as a rookie 3rd round pick out of West Virginia in 2008, gaining 1,282 rushing yards to go along with 377 receiving yards and ten touchdowns. Since then, his career path has pointed straight down, culminating in his release by Houston last year. The Dolphins plucked him off the waiver wire and kept him in obscurity until Reggie Bush missed their season finale against the Jets. Slaton ran well in that game, gaining 55 yards on 11 carries, and his performance earned him another look with the Dolphins in 2012. However, one of Daniel Thomas or rookie Lamar Miller will earn the role as Bush’s backup and Slaton will likely get sporadic playing time as a third down and change of pace option if Bush goes down. That makes Slaton not worth owning.
 Davone Bess could be Miami's top fantasy receiver in 2012... yikes.
Meet the Dolphins top wide receiver entering 2012. If that seems too scary to you, imagine how Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore and David Garrard feel (hint: maybe they don’t really want the starting job that badly after all). I like Bess – he is a solid slot receiver who can find the open areas against zone defenses but he lacks playmaking ability, as evidenced by his career average of 10.3 yards per reception. With poor quarterback play and Brandon Marshall and Reggie Bush gobbling up targets, Bess had career lows in receptions (51) and yards (537) last season. However, he should bounce back in 2012 and a return to his production in the 2009 and 2010 seasons (averages of 77.5 receptions and 789 yards) isn’t out of the question. Bess clearly has more value in PPR leagues and he should be drafted no higher than a WR4. With the expectations for the Dolphins offense extremely low, Bess could be a value on draft day.
After three years in the league, the knock on Hartline is that he is a one-trick pony. He has a gaudy career yards per reception average of 15.3 but has never topped 615 receiving yards or three touchdowns in a season. Basically, he gets open on deep passes but not as frequently as needed to be a true starting wide receiver. On the minus side of the ledger, Hartline isn’t a great route runner and has decent but not outstanding size so he is a questionable fit in the Dolphins new west coast offense. However, a position in the starting line-up seems almost certain, just don’t bother adding him to your roster. With just four double-digit point performances in 44 career games, Hartline is a waiver wire option and bye week filler if you are desperate.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. And so, with arguably the worst group of wide receivers in the league, the Dolphins signed Ochocinco after his release from the Patriots in June. There’s not a lot to like about this signing. Miami is rebuilding and Ochocinco is 34 years old. Miami will run the West Coast offense, Ochocinco has never played in this type of offense and he isn’t a disciplined route runner. Finally, the pièce de résistance, he is coming off a 15-reception season where he faced plenty of criticism for failing to learn New England’s playbook. He’s worth keeping an eye on in preseason but don’t expect much from Chad Johnson in 2012.
If you’re looking for an ultra deep sleeper, you could do worse than Cunningham. The rookie 6th round pick joins a Dolphins receiving corps that lacks playmakers and features veterans with little upside. It also helps that he is the only player on the team with the requisite size to be a lead wide receiver in the west coast offense. His lack of speed caused him to fall to the 6th round but he was productive at Michigan State and could become a solid possession receiver in Miami. While Cunningham isn’t worth of a spot on your fantasy roster just yet, he could be a decent sleeper by opening day.
Naanee had a chance to shine with the Panthers in 2011, with career highs in starts (11) and targets (76). Unfortunately for him, he proved the Chargers correct in letting him walk, catching just 44 passes for 467 yards and a single touchdown, despite playing opposite Steve Smith. While the Dolphins lack playmaking ability at the wide receiver position, it would seem unlikely they would hand significant playing time to a player with little upside who has averaged just over 20 receptions a season during his five-year career.
After a career-year in 2010 with highs in receptions (39) and receiving yards (528), Fasano settled back into his normal production last season, catching 32 passes for 451 yards and 5 touchdowns. Entering his seventh season in the league, Fasano isn’t a player who is about to emerge as a solid pass catching tight end nor is he likely to catch a pile of touchdowns given the state of the team’s offense. While rookie 3rd round pick Michael Egnew needs seasoning before earning a starting position, Fasano remains a low-end TE2 with little upside and that’s being generous.
The 6’5”, 252-pound Missouri product joins the Dolphins after a mildly disappointing senior season. Egnew proved to be a solid receiving option in Missouri’s spread offense and he has the physical ability to develop into a solid pass catching tight end in the Dolphins new west coast offense. Just don’t look for that to happen in 2012. The 3rd round pick spent little time blocking in college and won’t earn significant playing time in Miami until he picks up that part of his game. Consider him a mid-tier prospect in dynasty leagues.
By: Mike Krueger — @ 1:20 pm
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 6/21/12
Quarterbacks
- Matt Ryan (+1) – talk of slightly more passing in ATL gives Ryan upside.
- Drew Brees (no change) – slight adjustments to Pass Att & Completions.
- Matthew Stafford (no change) – slight adjustments to Pass Att & Completions.
- Kevin Kolb (no change) – slight adjustments to Pass Att & Completions.
- Tim Tebow (+1 rushing TD) – Jets likely to use the QB around the goaline.
Running Backs
- Frank Gore (-2) – continued talk of Gore sharing carries and losing opportunities around the goaline keeps his value on the decline.
- Shonn Greene (-2) – will likely lose goaline carries to QB Tim Tebow.
- Beanie Wells (-8) – previously ranked too high given his injury risk.
- Ryan Williams (+9) – recovery from knee injury is on track.
- Taiwan Jones (-14) – competition from Goodson as McFadden’s backup.
- Ronnie Brown (#90) – previously unranked, recently signed by SD.
Wide Receivers
- Wes Welker (-3) – still love Wes, but Lloyd will take a few targets away.
- Brandon Lloyd (+6) – I’m jumping on the bandwagon.
- Stephen Hill (#53) – inexplicably left out of our initial rankings.
- Chad Ochocinco (+51) – still not quite sure what his role will be but he’s got a better chance to be fantasy relevant in Miami than in New England.
- Josh Cribbs (-15) – talk of Cribbs being less involved in the offense and more involved on special teams.
Tight Ends
By: Dave Stringer — June 19, 2012 @ 9:03 pm
 Inconsistency keeps Ryan Fitzpatrick out of QB1 territory.
Fitzpatrick’s 2011 season mirrored that of the Bills as he started the season on a hot streak before cooling off considerably over the season’s second half. He topped 25 fantasy points in each of his first three starts, throwing for 841 yards and 9 touchdowns in wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and Patriots. From that point on, it was mostly downhill with Fitzpatrick displaying the inconsistency that has plagued his career as he finished the season with a career-high and league-leading 24 interceptions. Rewarded with a $59-million, six-year contract extension after Week 6, his production plummeted with five games under 210 yards passing over his final ten weeks – a period in which he threw for 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. While injuries to running back Fred Jackson and at the wide receiver position were part of the problem, a substantial portion of the blame goes to Fitzpatrick whose accuracy got worse as the season progressed. While his season ended badly, Fitzpatrick still finished as the 11th ranked fantasy quarterback which was generally higher than predicted. Consider him an upper tier backup once again in 2012 (the Bills threw it 58% of the time in 2011) and move him down in leagues that penalize for turnovers given his propensity for throwing interceptions.
Pit stop number two on Young’s road to redemption is Buffalo. After a largely forgettable season in Philadelphia where he went 1-2 as a starter and threw four touchdowns and nine interceptions in just 114 attempts, Young will battle Tyler Thigpen for the job backing up Ryan Fitzpatrick. As redemption situations go, this one isn’t bad since Fitzpatrick trailed off badly last season after signing a lucrative long-term contract extension, a deal that wasn’t front-loaded and doesn’t guarantee him a long run as the team’s starter. Grab Young in deep dynasty leagues in case he gets a chance to shine in Buffalo but avoid him in all other formats.
Once again in 2011, Jackson held off 2010 1st round pick C.J. Spiller to be the team’s lead running back. In fact, Jackson was playing so well last season that Spiller basically became persona non grata in the Bills offensive game planning, with Jackson averaging 22 touches per game until a fractured fibula ended his season in Week 11. Jackson amassed 934 rushing yards, 442 receiving yards and six touchdowns prior to the injury and was being mentioned as a potential MVP candidate. Unfortunately for Jackson, Spiller played well in relief and likely earned himself a larger role in 2012, despite his poor production over the first year and a half of his career. While Jackson figures to be healthy by opening day and to regain his starting position, look for a reduced role for Jackson in 2012. Consider him a high end RB2 this season.
Spiller spent the first year and a half of his career making Bills management look like fools for using the 9th pick in the 2010 rookie draft to acquire him. However, Fred Jackson’s season-ending leg injury thrust Spiller into the starting lineup and he played far better than anyone could have anticipated over the balance of the season. After a poor performance in his first game as a starter, Spiller accumulated 446 yards rushing, 187 receiving yards and scored five touchdowns over his last six games, hitting double-digit fantasy points four times. That means Spiller has solidified his standing as the Bills running back of the future. What it doesn’t mean is that he has earned a huge role in 2012. Jackson was a beast when healthy in 2011 and signed a two-year contract extension in the offseason. The expectation is that he will get the majority of the touches in the Bills backfield but that Spiller’s use won’t be as minimal as it was when Jackson was healthy. Consider Spiller a high-end RB4 with upside.
Waived by the Cowboys and Redskins in 2011, Choice ended up joining the Bills when Fred Jackson was injured but was used sparingly, failing to top 7 touches in four of six games. While Choice is good enough not to embarrass himself as a runner or a receiver, he does not excel in any one area and the days of him being considered a potential starter are long gone.
Johnson followed up his breakout 2010 campaign with another solid year in 2011, topping 1,000 receiving yards for the second consecutive season and becoming the first player in team history to accomplish the feat. He also became just the third Bills player to record at least 70 receptions in consecutive seasons. That’s all good and so is the fact that he is clearly the team’s undisputed top wide receiver and that he signed a lucrative contract extension in the offseason, negating any potential for a preseason holdout. The bad news is that the Bills did little to upgrade the starting position opposite Johnson, meaning he can expect plenty of attention in 2012. Johnson also underwent groin surgery, which bothered him during part of last season, but reports indicate that it was minor and won’t affect his availability for the beginning of training camp. While the naysayers will point out that Johnson isn’t regarded as an upper tier wide receiver (and that is likely the case), the bottom line is that he has been the focal point of the team’s passing attack over each of the last two years, finishing in the top ten in targets amongst wide receivers both seasons and there is little to suggest he won’t do so again in 2012. Consider him a rock solid WR2 for the coming season.
Entering training camp, Nelson was expected to challenge for a backup role on a Bills squad lacking depth behind starters Steve Johnson and Lee Evans. However, Evans trade to the Ravens and Marcus Easley’s reported heart condition moved Nelson up the depth chart and he ended the season starting 13 games. A big target at 6’5”, 215 pounds, Nelson has the size to play outside but was used mostly in the slot by the Bills. He played well early, catching 39 passes for 433 yards and four touchdowns over the first nine games of the year. However, he struggled down the stretch, averaging just 4.1 Fpts per game over his final seven contests with just 22 receptions for 225 yards and one touchdown. He shapes up as a WR5/WR6 in 2012.
Given an opportunity to start in 2011, Jones was a major disappointment, failing to establish himself opposite Steve Johnson. The Bills were high on the former undrafted free agent out of Youngstown State but Jones caught just 23 of 46 targets in eight games before suffering a season-ending ankle injury in Week 11. He has solid size and better than average speed but has displayed little after the catch ability, averaging just 10.8 yards per reception over his first two years in the league. Jones will have to hold off David Nelson, Marcus Easley and 2012 4th round pick T.J. Graham to hold onto his starting position. Look for the Nelson to spend plenty of time in the slot and for the team to use several players lining up outside with Johnson in 2012. Unless Jones wins the job outright with an impressive preseason, he is not worth owning in redraft leagues.
Lacking a deep threat at the wide receiver position, the Bills used an early 3rd round pick on Graham in the 2012 draft. The 5’11”, 188 pound North Carolina State product brings plenty of speed to the table, having run a 4.41 40-yard dash, but is more of a project than a polished product and the expectation is that he will not have a major role as a rookie. Look for Graham to be used in more of a specialty role, running deep patterns and hopefully forcing opposing defenses to respect his big play ability. Graham isn’t worth a roster spot in redraft leagues but is a mid to lower-tier prospect in dynasty formats.
Considered the most physically gifted of Buffalo’s wide receivers other than Steve Johnson, Easley missed all of the 2011 season with a heart condition. Easley will compete for a starting position with Donald Jones, David Martin and rookie T.J. Graham but isn’t even assured of making the team’s final roster. Given the lack of a second quality starter on the roster, Easley could surprise and claim a starting position so monitor his production in the preseason.
The Bills entered the season searching for a pass catching tight end and Chandler filled the bill surprisingly well in 2011. The former San Diego 3rd round pick started the season on fire with four touchdowns over the first three weeks but cooled down considerably thereafter finding the end zone just two more times, both scores coming in a Week 8 win over the Redskins. Chandler finished the season by setting career-highs in every category with 38 receptions for 389 yards and six touchdowns. Looking ahead to 2012, it is worth noting (assuming Bills coaches took note) that Chandler caught an amazing 82.6% of his targets in 2011. He rates as a mid-tier to low-end fantasy backup for 2012.
By: Dave Stringer — June 5, 2012 @ 4:23 pm
With the first wave of free agency and the draft complete, here are my updated 2012 fantasy football wide receiver rankings:
1. Calvin Johnson, Lions – If anybody else were here, you would quit reading.
2. Roddy White, Falcons – These days, everybody likes the shiny, new gadget. In Atlanta, I like the old gadget and look no further than his performance from Week 11 to 17 last season (733 yards and five touchdowns).
3. Greg Jennings, Packers – Jordy Nelson put up better numbers but Jennings remains the Big Dog in the Packers receiving corps.
4. Wes Welker, Patriots – Sorry, Patriots fans, but the presence of Brandon Lloyd means more shots down the field and fewer opportunities for Welker.
5. Marques Colston, Saints – Over his last 11 games, Colston put up 985 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, making him the 3rd ranked wide receiver over that period. Then he put up 256 receiving yards and a score in two playoff games. Also doesn’t hurt that Robert Meachem left town.
6. Mike Wallace, Steelers – With Rashard Mendenhall out, Wallace figures to be featured even more in 2012.
7. Hakeem Nicks, Giants – See Greg Jennings, remove Jordy Nelson, insert Victor Cruz. A broken foot ruined his offseason but Nicks is expected to be good to go by Week 1.
8. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – With perhaps the second worst quarterback play in the league last season, Fitzgerald still managed 80 receptions for 1,411 yards and eight touchdowns. Unfortunately, recent reports that John Skelton was being given every chance to unseat Kevin Kolb lead us to believe the quarterback play might not be much better in 2012.
9. Percy Harvin, Vikings – Harvin was unstoppable over the Vikings final nine games, putting up 691 receiving yards, 176 rushing yard and eight touchdowns. With Adrian Peterson coming off a torn ACL, Harvin should be solid once again in 2012.
10. A.J. Green, Bengals – If there was one reason to watch the Bengals last year, A.J. Green was it. If Andy Dalton keeps improving, Green is destined to be a top 5 fantasy wide receiver by 2013 at the latest.
11. Andre Johnson, Texans – The last two seasons have proven that Johnson isn’t getting any younger and he recently had arthroscopic surgery on his knee, further validating that he is an injury risk at this point of his career.
12. Jordy Nelson, Packers – This guy will prove that his 2011 production (1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns on just 68 receptions) was no fluke. Expect an increase on the 96 targets he had last season.
13. Brandon Marshall, Bears – Will being reunited with Jay Cutler make Marshall a top 10 fantasy wide receiver once again? Not quite.
14. Victor Cruz, Giants – I keep reading his stat line (1,536 yards and nine touchdowns) and I keep pinching myself.
15. Miles Austin, Cowboys – Just 27 years old, Austin is entering his 7th season in the league. He remains wonderfully talented but he couldn’t stay healthy last season.
16. Julio Jones, Falcons – This kid is dynamite but his hammies cause me some concern.
17. Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Let’s face it. This guy has top five potential but he’s not going to get there with the 6.9 targets per game he had last year.
18. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – Quarterback Matt Cassel was lost in Week 10. Prior to that, Bowe was the 7th ranked fantasy wide receiver. Yes, Tyler Palko killed his fantasy value.
19. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers – The Chargers offense is better than the Bucs and Josh Freeman is no match for Philip Rivers.
20. Steve Smith, Panthers – Smith had a renaissance season in 2011, catching 79 passes for 1,394 yards and seven touchdowns. However, he will be 33 years old on opening day and the Panthers passing attack won’t surprise anybody in 2012.
21. Steve Johnson, Bills – It doesn’t feel right putting him this low but he has benefited from a lot of targets and the production opposite him can’t be as bad as it was last year. Or can it?
22. Antonio Brown, Steelers – Breakout season in 2011 but lack of touchdowns hurts his fantasy value. Doesn’t help that Emmanuel Sanders figures to be healthy for 2012.
23. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles – I’m making the call that the ten touchdowns he scored as part of the Eagles high-flying 2010 offense were an aberration.
24. Robert Meachem, Chargers – Meachem has plenty of talent but injuries and inconsistency plagued him in New Orleans. He gets the first crack at replacing Vincent Jackson in San Diego.
25. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders – Recent legal troubles notwithstanding, DHB’s career trajectory is clearly on the upswing (124 yards to 366 to 974 last season).
26. DeSean Jackson, Eagles – He’s risky and wildly inconsistent but there’s no way he can be as bad he was last year.
27. Torrey Smith, Ravens – Meet Baltimore’s new number one receiver.
28. Eric Decker, Broncos – Don’t you get the impression that Decker is going to be the chain mover in the Broncos offense?
29. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos – I read that Thomas is the most physically gifted wide receiver that Peyton Manning has ever played with. Unfortunately, he’s not the best receiver that Manning ever played with. And the injury history cannot be ignored.
30. Reggie Wayne, Colts – Repeat after me. Top wide receiver on a doormat that will have to throw plenty. Garbage time production, folks.
Moving out from my initial rankings are Brandon Lloyd of the Patriots and the 49ers Michael Crabtree.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 9:22 am
Here is a post-draft update to my initial 2012 fantasy football tight end rankings.
1. Jimmy Graham, Saints – Given his inexperience, you could make a strong argument that he has more upside than any tight end in the league.
2. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – He’s a Beast but is he a Beast that can stay healthy?
3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – Doesn’t have the upside of the players ahead of him but managed 910 yards and seven touchdowns in just 14 games last season. It doesn’t hurt that he also got some looks in the running game as the season wound down.
4. Antonio Gates, Chargers – The bad news is that he has missed nine games in the last two seasons. The good news is that he averaged 13.8 points per game in 2010 when Vincent Jackson missed most of the season and Jackson left for Tampa Bay.
5. Jason Witten, Cowboys – With Laurent Robinson having a solid season as the team’s third wide receiver, Witten had just 117 targets, his lowest total since the 2006 season. It is nice that Robinson isn’t in Dallas anymore. Not so nice is Witten’s production over the Cowboys final six games (272 receiving yards and no touchdowns).
6. Jermichael Finley, Packers – Is he a tease or the dominant player he appeared to be in 2010 and one who deserves more targets in 2012?
7. Vernon Davis, 49ers – Are you getting the Davis who dominated in two playoff games last season (292 yards and four touchdowns) or the one who averaged six targets a game in the regular season (792 yards and six touchdowns). Head coach Jim Harbaugh will decide.
8. Brent Celek, Eagles – Persona non grata in 2010 and for the first six games of 2011, Celek reemerged as a weapon for the Eagles over the final 10 games of last season, catching 53 passes for 738 yards and five touchdowns. A lot of that was in the screen game in order to help the team’s pass blocking and left tackle Jason Peters may miss most of 2012.
9. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons – The Falcons figure to have a solid offense once again but I am not sold that the 36-year Gonzalez can repeat his 875 yard, seven touchdown performance from a year ago. Gonzo is going to need to increase his touchdown count to repeat as a top 5 tight end.
10. Dustin Keller, Jets – On the bright side, the Jets have no proven starting wide receiver opposite Santonio Holmes and Keller has started the season on fire in each of the last two years. Over the four games of the last two seasons, he has totaled 515 yards and seven touchdowns. Unfortunately, he has not been able to sustain those hot starts and has scored just three touchdowns over the final 12 games over the last two seasons. The talent is there and he is in a contract year so maybe 2012 will be the first time Keller puts it together for an entire season.
11. Fred Davis, Redskins – If you watched any Redskins games last year, it was readily apparent that Davis has major upside. Look no further than his 8.1 points per game last season, 5th best amongst tight ends. With better wide receivers in Washington this season, a rookie quarterback and his 2011 suspension, Davis carries some risk and that is why he isn’t higher on the list. However, it won’t be a surprise if he is in the top five by season’s end.
12. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions – Pettigrew had the 2nd most targets amongst tight ends last season with 126 but was the 11th ranked fantasy player at his position so you could make the argument that he has a lot of upside. And you would be wrong. He catches a lot of passes (83 last year) but not for a lot of yards (10.0 career yards per reception). In Detroit’s offense, he gets few looks down the field and is mostly a check down option in the passing game.
Just missing from my list are Jermaine Gresham of Cincinnati, Jared Cook of the Titans, the Broncos Jacob Tamme and Owen Daniels of the Texans.
By: Dave Stringer — May 27, 2012 @ 5:17 pm
Here is a post-draft update to my initial 2012 fantasy football running rankings.
1. Arian Foster, Texans – Foster proved in 2011 that his monster breakout season in 2010 was no fluke. A hamstring injury that caused him to miss two starts and leave early in another game and a Week 17 breather were the only issues preventing Foster from repeating as the top fantasy running back last season. A pair of key defections on the offensive line and his new contract are the only red flags.
2. Ray Rice, Ravens – With Ricky Williams backing him up, Rice still managed 2,068 total yards and 15 touchdowns in 2011, both career highs. Williams retired this offseason and while Baltimore added rookie Bernard Pierce to the mix, Rice figures to approach 400 touches (395 last season) again in 2012, provided he doesn’t hold out.
3. LeSean McCoy, Eagles – McCoy finished second in fantasy points amongst running backs in 2011, topping 1,600 total yards for the second consecutive season and scoring a career-high 20 touchdowns. He clearly benefited from quarterback Michael Vick’s lack of rushing touchdowns (just one in 2011 after scoring nine times in 2010). Vick’s presence, the loss of Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters to a potentially season-ending injury is the only concern.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars – What is there to say. MJD was gold last season even though the Jaguars featured the worst quarterback play in the league, gaining 1,980 total yards and scoring 11 touchdowns. Since taking over as the team’s starter three seasons ago, he has averaged 117 total yards per game while topping 1,600 yards every year. Imagine what he can do if Blaine Gabbert picks up his game.
5. Ryan Mathews, Chargers – With Mike Tolbert and Darren Sproles having left town over the past two off-seasons, Mathews is the Big Dog in San Diego in 2012 and the only thing holding him back from being a superstar is injuries. Despite missing two games and having a reduced workload in two others, he still managed 1,546 total yards and six touchdowns last season. LeRon McClain is a marginal threat to take over Tolbert’s goal line duties but the expectation is that Mathews will assume that role. It was also nice to see the Chargers not address the running back position in the draft until the 7th round.
6. Chris Johnson, Titans – He’s just too good and his ego too big to have two consecutive down years. Right?
7. Matt Forte, Bears – Forte was on the verge of a career-year in 2011 before suffering a sprained medial collateral ligament in his right knee during Week 13. In his first 11 games, he ran for 987 yards, had 490 receiving yards and scored four times. Never a strong short yardage runner, Forte will once again come out in those situations with Michael Bush taking over that roll from Marion Barber. Bush figures to eat into some of Forte’s touches but Forte remains a RB1 for fantasy purposes.
8. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – With pending free agency, Lynch had the finest year of his career in 2011, posting career-highs in rushing yards with 1,204 and rushing touchdowns with 12. He also chipped in 212 yards and another touchdown in the passing game. And he will remain a workhorse back in 2012. Why not higher up, you ask? Simple. The guy has a history that you can’t ignore.
9. Darren McFadden, Raiders – Run DMC was a monster the first six weeks of last season, gaining 610 yards on the ground, 153 through the air and scoring five touchdowns. Then the injury woes hit, again. This time it was a Lis Franc sprain that ended his season with the Raiders hiding the true extent of his injury for several weeks, keeping his fantasy owners in limbo. Supersub Michael Bush has left town and his injury history is the only thing keeping McFadden out of the top five.
10. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Despite coming off a 2011 season that ended in Week 2 with a torn ACL, Charles sneaks into the top 10. Peyton Hillis signed with the Chiefs but don’t forget that Charles topped 1,000 rushing yards in consecutive seasons and posted 1,935 total yards in 2010 on just 275 touches.
11. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys – Hey, the kid can play but can he play for 16 games? Injury issues caused him to drop to the 3rd round of the 2011 draft and low and behold, he ended his rookie season on injured reserve. Injuries and age are issues for several of the players behind him.
12. Steven Jackson, Rams – SJax bounced back last year after suffering through a subpar 2010 season when he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. While he might be just 28 years old, he has had more wear and tear than perhaps any other running back that age, constantly having to face eight and nine man fronts. At least it’s nice to know that he has topped 1,000 rushing yards in seven straight seasons and that Rams head coach Jeff Fisher is committed to running the football. Isaiah Pead, the team’s 2nd round pick in the draft, is no threat.
13. Fred Jackson, Bills – Sorry, C.J. Spiller owners, FJax is too good to give up too many touches to the young speedster in 2012. This guy was a top 5 fantasy running back before suffering a broken fibula in Week 11.
14. Frank Gore, 49ers – Persona non grata in the passing game and now facing a threat to his goal line carries with Brandon Jacobs in town. Jacobs is no sure bet to win that role but Gore is no longer a workhorse back with Kendall Hunter and Jacobs on the roster, not to mention the addition of 2nd round pick LaMichael James.
15. Michael Turner, Falcons – Turner’s FF bio is littered with red flags. He turned 30 in February, he has topped 300 carries in three of the last four years and he was dreadful from Week 12 to Week 16 last year (280 rushing yards and one touchdown) before running roughshod over a decimated Bucs team in Week 17. However, he has hit double-digit touchdowns in each of his four years in Atlanta and he remains the lead back in an offense that that should be in the top 10 in 2012.
16. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants – The good news is that Bradshaw’s main backup, Brandon Jacobs, left town. As expected, the Giants used a high pick to replace Jacobs, taking David Wilson in the 1st round. That’s not horrible news for Bradshaw owners since Wilson had fumbling issues in college and we all know what head coach Tom Coughlin does to players who fumble.
 Richardson should easily lead the browns in touches in 2012. 17. Trent Richardson, Browns – Browns legend Jim Brown might not think Richardson does anything special but he doesn’t have much competition for carries and the team’s passing attack is severely lacking playmakers and will likely feature a rookie quarterback. Add it up and there are plenty of reasons for the Browns to give Richardson plenty of touches in 2012.
18. Darren Sproles, Saints – The diminutive one finished 2011 as the 10th ranked fantasy running back despite having just 173 touches. He is unlikely to reach the nine touchdowns he had last season but a repeat of his 1,313 total yards is possible.
19. Adrian Peterson, Vikings – How did I decide to put AP at 14? I couldn’t find anybody else to put ahead of him. Peterson is on schedule with his rehab and the club remains confident he will return for Week 1 however he’s likely to be limited early in the season.
20. Shonn Greene, Jets – Despite a rib injury that limited him late in 2011, Greene topped 1,000 rushing yards for the first time and figures to top the 273 touches he had last season with LaDainian Tomlinson no longer on the roster. If only Tim Tebow wasn’t around to steal goal line touches.
21. Beanie Wells, Cardinals – At first glance, Wells’ numbers look good – 1,047 yards, 4.3 yards per carry and ten touchdowns. A closer look reveals some major inconsistency, with Wells having ten games (out of 15) with 67 or fewer yards and just two 100-yard performances. Add in his injury history and it seems clear that a timeshare with Ryan Williams, who missed all of his rookie season with injury, is almost guaranteed.
22. Reggie Bush, Dolphins – Coming off a career year, Bush surprised the football world by staying healthy for 15 games and topping 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career. The issue is whether he can do it again.
23. Roy Helu, Redskins – Showed plenty of upside in 2011 before missing the final three games of the season with knee and toe injuries.
24. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals – It’s precarious but BJGE cracks the top 25 and rookie Dan Herron is no threat to cut into Law Firm’s playing time.
25. Willis McGahee, Broncos – Sorry, folks, I don’t believe a repeat of his 2011 performance is in the cards and with rookie Ronnie Hilliman’s adequate receiving skills, McGahee should be less of a workhorse back in 2012.
26. Jahvid Best, Lions – Let’s assume he plays 10 or 11 games. That should be enough to keep him inside the top 30 fantasy running backs.
27. Doug Martin, Bucs – Tampa Bay’s new head coach Greg Schiano likes to run the ball and he’s already put incumbent starter LeGarrette Blount on notice about his fumbling issues in 2011. He has also jettisoned perceived troublemakers in safety Tanard Jackson and tight end Kellen Winslow and we are all familiar with Blount’s background. Martin figures to get plenty of work as a rookie but his upside is limited if Blount handles the short yardage work, as expected.
28. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – This ranking doesn’t reflect his talent. It is looking likely a committee approach in Carolina this season but Stewart at least figures to be the lead dog.
29. James Starks, Packers – Hey, nobody thinks the Packers are going to run it much in 2012 but the bottom line is that Starks’ only competition for carries consist of a 2nd year former undrafted free agent in Brandon Saine and another 2nd year players coming off an ACL injury in Alex Green, the team’s 2011 3rd round pick.
30. Mark Ingram, Saints – Why is he here? I’m scared to put him any lower.
Dropping out from my initial rankings are Isaac Redman of the Steelers, the Bucs LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley of the Patriots.
By: Dave Stringer — May 9, 2012 @ 10:27 am
Here is a post-draft update to my initial 2012 fantasy football quarterback rankings.
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Only a Week 17 day off prevented Rodgers from being the top-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2011. With his key weapons back for 2012, expect more of the same.
2. Tom Brady, Patriots – Gains a deep threat in Brandon Lloyd and another reliable option in Jabar Gaffney making the New England offense even more unstoppable.
3. Drew Brees, Saints – More of a risk with head coach Sean Payton suspended for the 2012 season – the only key loss the team suffered on offense. Robert Meachem left town but he is replaceable.
4. Matthew Stafford, Lions – After his breakout 2011 season with over 5,000 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, the only concern with Stafford is his health and that of wide receiver Calvin Johnson. With nothing of significance added to help replenish the team’s rushing attack, expect plenty of passes from the Lions once again.
 Stafford will make another run at 5000 yards in 2012. 5. Cam Newton, Panthers – Newton burst onto the scene with 854 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and a pair of rushing scores in his first two games on his way to finishing the year as the fourth ranked fantasy quarterback. There are only two red flags. He threw for under 200 yards in each of his last three games (478 yards in those games) and it is highly unlikely he will reach 14 rushing touchdowns again – a league record for quarterbacks he set last season.
6. Eli Manning, Giants – In leading the Giants to another Super Bowl victory, Manning enjoyed the finest year of his career with 4,933 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Mario Manningham left town but he wasn’t a key cog in the Giants regular season passing success in 2011 and rookie 2nd round pick Rueben Randle will help replace his production.
7. Michael Vick, Eagles – With Vick, it’s all about the injuries. If you peg him as missing one or two games, then he is close to being a top-five fantasy quarterback. If it’s four or five games, knock him down to somewhere between 10th and 12th.
8. Peyton Manning, Broncos – The Broncos have been adding tools to their offensive toolbox since signing Manning. Slot receivers Brandon Stokely and Andre Caldwell. Check. Pass catching tight ends in Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreesen. Check. Speed in the backfield with rookie 3rd round pick Ronnie Hillman. Check.
9. Philip Rivers, Chargers – The weapons are leaving the Chargers offense with wide receiver Vincent Jackson and running back Mike Tolbert skipping town one year after the departure of Darren Sproles. That hurts as does having injury issues amongst his receivers (Antonio Gates, Robert Meachem and Malcom Floyd). But, can Rivers possibly be as bad as he was last year?
10. Matt Ryan, Falcons – Expect less from tight end Tony Gonzalez and running back Michael Turner but more from wide receivers Roddy White and especially, Julio Jones. Net result should be career-highs in passing yards and touchdowns.
11. Tony Romo, Cowboys – Star third wide receiver Laurent Robinson left town for the Jaguars, Jason Witten started looking old down the stretch and Miles Austin has hamstrings tighter than a steel bar. Oh, Dallas also found a running game last year with DeMarco Murray.
12. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers – The Bucs were a mess last year and Freeman suffered because of it. However, Vincent Jackson is in town to provide him with his first real deep threat and Mike Williams should benefit from drawing less attention. Freeman’s rushing prowess makes him the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback over other options such as Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler and Robert Griffin III.
By: Dave Stringer — April 16, 2012 @ 11:08 am
With Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots setting a league record for touchdowns by a tight end and the Saints Jimmy Graham also enjoying monstrous production in his second year in the league, fantasy owners are for the first time faced with the prospect of selecting two tight ends within the first two rounds of their drafts.
The question is: is that a sound strategy?
Before we answer that, let’s decide who the top dog at tight end should be in 2012. Giving his 235 fantasy points last season, Gronkowski deserves that honor.
While Gronkowski has been a revelation in New England (and to his fantasy owners) with 28 touchdowns during his first two years in the league and 1,327 receiving yards in 2011, the odds of him replicating his 2011 production are unlikely. Brandon Lloyd joins the Patriots this season as a proven deep threat, defenses will adjust and increase their focus on Gronkowski and his high ankle sprain at the end of last season was a reminder of the injury issues that caused him to drop into the 2nd round of the 2010 draft.
If that turns out to be an accurate assessment, then he shouldn’t be taken in the 2nd round. In fact, there is a strong case that Graham should be able to significantly close the fantasy point differential between the two players, making him a potential better value as the second tight end off the board.
With the first wave of free agency over, here are my initial 2012 fantasy football tight end rankings:
The Top 12
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – He’s a beast but is he a beast that can stay healthy?
 Sky is the limit for Jimmy Graham. 2. Jimmy Graham, Saints – Given his inexperience, you could make a strong argument that he has more upside than any tight end in the league.
3. Jermichael Finley, Packers – Is he a tease or the dominant player he appeared to be in 2010 and one who deserves more targets in 2012?
4. Antonio Gates, Chargers – The bad news is that he has missed nine games in the last two years. The good news is that he averaged 13.8 points per game in 2010 when Vincent Jackson missed most of the season and Jackson has left for Tampa Bay.
5. Vernon Davis, 49ers – Are you getting the Davis who dominated in two playoff games last season (292 yards and four touchdowns) or the one who averaged six targets a game in the regular season (792 yards and six touchdowns). Head coach Jim Harbaugh will decide.
6. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – Doesn’t have the upside of the players ahead of him but managed 910 yards and 7 touchdowns in just fourteen games last season.
7. Jason Witten, Cowboys – With Laurent Robinson having a solid season as the team’s third wide receiver, Witten had just 117 targets, his lowest total since the 2006 season. It is nice that Robinson isn’t in Dallas anymore. Not so nice is Witten’s production over the Cowboys final six games (272 receiving yards and no touchdowns).
8. Fred Davis, Redskins – If you watched any Redskins games last year, it was readily apparent that Davis has major upside. Look no further than his 8.1 points per game last season, 5th best amongst tight ends. With better wide receivers in Washington this season, a rookie quarterback and his 2011 suspension, Davis carries some risk and that is why he isn’t higher on the list. However, it won’t be a surprise if he is in the top five by season’s end.
9. Brent Celek, Eagles – Persona non grata in 2010 and for the first six games of 2011, Celek re-emerged as a weapon for the Eagles over the final 10 games, catching 53 passes for 738 yards and five touchdowns.
10. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons – The Falcons figure to have a solid offense once again in 2012 but I am not sold that the 36-year-old Gonzalez can repeat his 875-yard, seven-touchdown performance from a year ago. Gonzo is going to need to increase his touchdown count to repeat as a top 5 tight end.
11. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions – Pettigrew had the 2nd most targets amongst tight ends last season with 126 but was the 11th ranked fantasy player at his position so you could make the argument that he has a lot of upside but you would be wrong. He catches a lot of passes (83 last year) but not for a lot of yards (10.0 career yards per reception). In Detroit’s offense, he gets few looks down the field and is mostly a check down option in the passing game.
12. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals – The 2010 1st round pick might be ready to bust out in 2012 provided he improves his route running. The talent is there, the light needs to come on.
Pettigrew and Gresham could be swapped out for a number of options including Jared Cook, Dustin Keller, Kellen Winslow and Owen Daniels.
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