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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — April 8, 2012 @ 1:32 pm
With the NFL becoming more of a passing league, the fantasy statistics of quarterbacks exploded in 2011. The common assumption is that the fantasy value of the league’s wide receivers has risen alongside that of quarterbacks.
However, in this situation, the common adage that a rising tide lifts all boats is only partially true.
In 2011, the production of the league’s top 10 fantasy wide receivers increased by an average of eight points. However, the average production of the 11th to 20th ranked receivers increased just one point and there was a two point increase for receivers ranked 21st to 30th.
What that means is that additional production in the passing game is going to running backs, tight ends and lower tier receivers (oftentimes, those not useful for fantasy purposes other than in the deepest leagues).
If you’re looking for how this translates into a strategy at your fantasy auction, the takeaway is that it makes sense to grab an upper tier wide receiver early in your draft but use two of your first three picks on the position is likely not the best option. One of those picks needs to be for a running back and the other should go towards an elite quarterback, another running back or perhaps one of the top two tight ends.
With the first wave of free agency over, here are my initial 2012 fantasy football wide receiver rankings:
The Top 30
1. Calvin Johnson, Lions – If anybody else was here, you would quit reading.
2. Andre Johnson, Texans – The last two seasons have proven that Johnson isn’t getting any younger but his talent and the lack of talent amongst Houston’s other receivers land him at number two.
3. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – With perhaps the second worst quarterback play in the league last season, Fitzgerald still managed 80 receptions for 1,411 yards and 8 touchdowns. Just imagine if the Cards would have landed Peyton Manning.
4. Roddy White, Falcons – These days, everybody likes the shiny, new gadget. In Atlanta, I like the old gadget and look no further than his performance from Week 11 to 17 last season (733 yards and five touchdowns).
5. Greg Jennings, Packers – Jordy Nelson put up better numbers but Jennings remains the Big Dog in the Packers receiving corps.
6. Hakeem Nicks, Giants – See above, remove Jordy Nelson, insert Victor Cruz.
7. Wes Welker, Patriots – Sorry Patriots fans, but the presence of Brandon Lloyd means more shots down the field and fewer opportunities for Welker.
 It's not a stretch to consider A.J. Green a top 10 wideout. 8. A.J. Green, Bengals – If there was one reason to watch the Bengals last year, A.J. Green was it. If Andy Dalton keeps improving, Green is destined to be a top 5 fantasy wide receiver by 2013 at the latest.
9. Marques Colston, Saints – Over his last 11 games, Colston put up 985 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, making him the 3rd ranked wide receiver over that period. He then put up 256 receiving yards and a score in two playoff games. Also doesn’t hurt that Robert Meachem left town.
10. Mike Wallace, Steelers – With Rashard Mendenhall out, Wallace figures to be featured even more in 2012.
11. Jordy Nelson, Packers – This guy will prove that his 2011 production (1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns on just 68 receptions) was no fluke. Expect an increase on the 96 targets he had last season.
12. Percy Harvin, Vikings – Harvin was unstoppable over the Vikings final nine games, putting up 691 receiving yards, 176 rushing yard and eight touchdowns. With Adrian Peterson coming off a torn ACL, Harvin should be solid once again in 2012.
13. Brandon Marshall, Bears – Will being reunited with Jay Cutler make Marshall a top 10 fantasy wide receiver once again? Not quite.
14. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – Quarterback Matt Cassel was lost in Week 10. Prior to that, Bowe was the 7th ranked fantasy wide receiver. Yes, Tyler Palko killed his fantasy value.
15. Julio Jones, Falcons – This kid is dynamite but his hammies cause me some concern.
16. Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Let’s face it. This guy has top five potential but he’s not going to get there with the 6.9 targets per game he had last year.
17. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers – The Chargers offense is better than the Bucs and Josh Freeman is no match for Philip Rivers.
18. Steve Smith, Panthers – Smith had a renaissance season in 2011, catching 79 passes for 1,394 yards and 7 touchdowns. However, he will be 33 years old on opening day and the Panthers passing attack won’t surprise anybody in 2012.
19. Miles Austin, Cowboys – Just 27 years old, Austin is entering his 7th season in the league. He remains wonderfully talented but he couldn’t stay healthy last season and might not be the top dog on his own team.
20. DeSean Jackson, Eagles – He’s risky and wildly inconsistent but there’s no way he can be as bad he was last year.
21. Victor Cruz, Giants – I keep reading his stat line (1,536 yards and nine touchdowns) and I keep pinching myself. No, I don’t quite believe and I’m having a hard time putting him here.
22. Steve Johnson, Bills – It doesn’t feel right putting him this low but he has benefited from a lot of targets and the production opposite him can’t be as bad as it was last year. Or can it?
23. Kenny Britt, Titans – If it weren’t for injury, brain cramps and quarterback concerns, Britt would be much higher.
24. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles – I’m making the call that the ten touchdowns he scored as part of the Eagles high-flying 2010 offense were an aberration.
25. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos – I read that Thomas is the most physically gifted wide receiver that Peyton Manning has ever played with. Unfortunately, he’s not the best receiver that Manning ever played with. And the injury history cannot be ignored.
26. Michael Crabtree, 49ers – Over the season’s final 11 games, Crabtree caught 61 passes for 742 yards and four touchdowns. Projected over an entire season, that would make him a mid-tier WR2 but that won’t happen with Mario Manningham and Randy Moss in San Francisco.
27. Antonio Brown, Steelers – Breakout season in 2011 but lack of touchdowns hurts his fantasy value. Doesn’t help that Emmanuel Sanders figures to be healthy for 2012.
28. Brandon Lloyd, Patriots – You see a player being reunited with the offensive guru who help propel him to a career-year. I see a player who is his team’s fourth option in the passing game.
29. Torrey Smith, Ravens – Meet Baltimore’s new number one receiver.
30. Reggie Wayne, Colts – Repeat after me. Top wide receiver on a doormat that will have to throw plenty. Garbage time production, folks.
On the outside looking in: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Anquan Boldin, Sidney Rice, Robert Meachem, Malcom Floyd, Lance Moore, Pierre Garcon, Santonio Holmes, Eric Decker, Nate Washington, Laurent Robinson and Mario Manningham.
By: Dave Stringer — April 4, 2012 @ 10:55 am
Let’s face it, folks. With the NFL becoming a passing league, the days of there being ten quality fantasy options at running back are long gone and they aren’t coming back.
If you haven’t ditched your two stud running back theory, it’s time to get out of the cave, return from the stone ages and quit eating leaves from tree tops. Otherwise, your fellow owners are going to have plenty of fun with dinosaur and cave man jokes at your expense.
And you don’t want that.
This year, there are four running backs that deserve to be taken before any other position and that is it. Some might argue that number should be three. Even more interesting is that you could make a strong case that this year’s 5th ranked running back should be taken no sooner than 9th overall.
With the first wave of free agency over, here are my initial 2012 fantasy football running back rankings:
The Top 30
1. Arian Foster, Texans – Foster proved in 2011 that his monster breakout season in 2010 was no fluke. A hamstring injury that caused him to miss two starts and leave early in another game and a Week 17 breather were the only issues preventing Foster from repeating as the top fantasy running back last season. A pair of key defections on the offensive line and his new contract are the only red flags.
2. Ray Rice, Ravens – With Ricky Williams backing him up, Rice still managed 2,068 total yards and 15 touchdowns in 2011, both career highs. Williams retired this off-season and while Baltimore will surely add to their running back depth chart, it is unlikely Rice’s new backup will be as talented as Williams. That means Rice figures to approach 400 touches (395 last season) again in 2012, provided he doesn’t hold out.
3. LeSean McCoy, Eagles – McCoy finished second in fantasy points amongst running backs in 2011, topping 1,600 total yards for the second consecutive season and scoring a career-high 20 touchdowns. He clearly benefited from quarterback Michael Vick’s lack of rushing touchdowns (just one in 2011 after scoring nine times in 2010). Vick’s presence, the loss of Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters to a potentially season-ending injury and McCoy’s contract status are the concerns.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars – What is there to say? MJD was gold last season even though the Jaguars featured the worst quarterback play in the league, gaining 1,980 total yards and scoring 11 touchdowns. Since taking over as the team’s starter three seasons ago, he has averaged 117 total yards per game while topping 1,600 yards every year. Imagine what he can do if Blaine Gabbert picks up his game.
5. Chris Johnson, Titans – He’s just too good and his ego too big to have two consecutive down years. Right?
 Ryan Mathews is pushing to be a top 5 fantasy running back. 6. Ryan Mathews, Chargers – With Mike Tolbert and Darren Sproles having left town over the past two off-seasons, Mathews is the Big Dog in San Diego in 2012 and the only thing holding him back from being a superstar is injury. Despite missing two games and having a reduced workload in two others, he still managed 1,546 total yards and six touchdowns last season. LeRon McClain is a marginal threat to take over Tolbert’s goal line duties but the expectation is that Mathews will assume that role.
7. Darren McFadden, Raiders – Run DMC was a monster over the first six weeks of last season, gaining 610 yards on the ground, 153 through the air and scoring five touchdowns. Then the injury woes hit, again. This time it was a Lis Franc sprain that ended his season with the Raiders hiding the true extent of his injury for several weeks, keeping his fantasy owners in limbo. Super sub Michael Bush has left town so injury history is the only thing keeping McFadden out of the top five.
8. Matt Forte, Bears – Forte was on the verge of a career-year in 2011 before suffering a sprained medial collateral ligament in his right knee during Week 13. In his first eleven games, he ran for 987 yards, had 490 receiving yards and scoring four times. Never a strong short yardage runner, Forte will once again come out in those situations with Michael Bush taking over that roll from Marion Barber. Bush figures to eat into some of Forte’s touches this season but Forte remains a RB1 for fantasy purposes.
9. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – With pending free agency, Lynch had the finest year of his career in 2011, posting career-highs in rushing yards with 1,204 and rushing touchdowns with 12. He also chipped in 212 yards and another touchdown in the passing game. He will remain a workhorse back in 2012. Why not higher up, you ask? Simple. I don’t believe.
10. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Despite coming off a 2011 season that ended in Week 2 with a torn ACL, Charles sneaks into the top 10. Peyton Hillis signed with the Chiefs but don’t forget that Charles topped 1,000 rushing yards in consecutive seasons and posted 1,935 total yards in 2010 on just 275 touches.
11. Michael Turner, Falcons – Turner’s FF bio is littered with red flags. He turned 30 in February, he has topped 300 carries in three of the last four years and he was dreadful from Week 12 to Week 16 last year (280 rushing yards and one touchdown) before running roughshod over a decimated Bucs team in Week 17. However, he has hit double-digit touchdowns in each of his four years in Atlanta and he remains the lead back in an offense that that should be in the top 10 in 2012.
12. Fred Jackson, Bills – Sorry, C.J. Spiller owners, Fjax is too good to give up too many touches to the young speedster in 2012. This guy was a top 5 fantasy running back before suffering a broken fibula in Week 11.
13. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys – Hey, the kid can play but can he play for 16 games? Injury issues caused him to drop to the 3rd round of the 2011 rookie draft and low and behold, he ended his rookie season on injured reserve.
14. Adrian Peterson, Vikings – How did I decide to put AP at 14? I couldn’t find anybody else to put ahead of him. Peterson is on schedule with his rehab and the club remains confident he will return for Week 1 however he’s likely to be limited early in the season.
15. Frank Gore, 49ers – Persona non grata in the passing game and now facing a threat to his goal line carries with Brandon Jacobs in town. Jacobs is no sure bet to win that role but Gore is no longer a workhorse back with Kendall Hunter and Jacobs on the roster.
16. Reggie Bush, Dolphins – Coming off a career year, Bush surprised the football world by staying healthy for 15 games and topping 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career. The issue is whether he can do it again.
17. Darren Sproles, Saints – The diminutive one finished 2011 as the 10th ranked fantasy running back despite having just 173 touches. He is unlikely to reach the nine touchdowns he had last season but a repeat of his 1,313 total yards is possible.
18. Steven Jackson, Rams – Sjax bounced back last season after suffering through a subpar 2010 season when he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. While he might be just 28 years old, he has had more wear and tear than perhaps any other running back that age, constantly having to face eight and nine man fronts. At least it’s nice to know that he has topped 1,000 rushing yards in seven straight seasons.
19. Roy Helu, Redskins – Helu showed plenty of upside in 2011 before missing the final three games of the season with knee and toe injuries.
20. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals – It’s precarious but BJGE cracks the top 20 until we see what the Bengals do in the draft.
21. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants – The good news is that Bradshaw’s main backup, Brandon Jacobs, has left town. The bad news is that it doesn’t mean much since the Giants don’t believe Bradshaw can be a workhorse back.
22. Isaac Redman, Steelers – With Mendenhall out, Redman looked good in a Week 17 win over the Browns and in the Steelers playoff loss against a tough Broncos defense. Basically, I don’t think he’s a big downgrade from Mendenhall, who will miss much of 2012. By opening day, Redman could move up to mid-tier RB2 status.
23. Shonn Greene, Jets – Despite a rib injury that limited him late in 2011, Greene topped 1,000 rushing yards for the first time and figures to top the 273 touches he had last season with LaDainian Tomlinson no longer on the roster.
24. Beanie Wells, Cardinals – At first glance, Wells’ numbers look good – 1,047 yards, 4.3 yards per carry and ten touchdowns. A closer look reveals some major inconsistency, with Wells having ten games (out of 15) with 67 or fewer yards and just two 100-yard performances. Add in his injury history and it seems clear that a timeshare with Ryan Williams, who missed all of his rookie season with injury, is almost guaranteed.
25. LeGarrette Blount, Bucs – There’s a nagging belief that the Bucs don’t view Blount as the answer and help is on the way in the draft, maybe in the form of Trent Richardson.
26. Stevan Ridley, Patriots – If he doesn’t fumble, Ridley figures to take over BJGE’s role in 2012.
27. Willis McGahee, Broncos – Sorry, folks, I don’t believe a repeat of his 2011 performance is in the cards. Expect the Broncos to add to their depth at running back and for McGahee to be less of a workhorse back next season.
28. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – This ranking doesn’t reflect his talent. It is looking likely a committee approach in Carolina this season but Stewart at least figures to be the lead dog.
29. Jahvid Best, Lions – Let’s assume he plays 10 or 11 games. That should be enough to keep him inside the top 30 fantasy running backs.
30. Mark Ingram, Saints – Why is he here? I’m scared to put him any lower. My apologies to Trent Richardson, James Starks, DeAngelo Williams, Michael Bush, C.J. Spiller and Daniel Thomas.
Wide Receivers up next…
By: Dave Stringer — March 30, 2012 @ 2:03 pm
With the NFL becoming more of a passing league, the strategy of grabbing a lower-tier starting quarterback for your fantasy squad is becoming obsolete. Look no further than the massive passing yardage and touchdown totals put up by the upper-tier quarterbacks in 2011, with three players throwing for more than 5,000 yards, ten players topping 4,000 yards and seven players throwing for 29 or more touchdowns.
And we haven’t mentioned what Cam Newton did rushing the ball in his rookie season.
The chic fantasy strategy at quarterback in 2012 will be to grab a top five quarterback and it won’t be a surprise if three quarterbacks are taken in the first round in drafts for 12-team leagues.
And the numbers back up that this is likely a smart strategy. The top five fantasy quarterbacks in 2012 averaged 28.4 points per game whereas the quarterbacks ranked 6th through 10th averaged 22.2, a not insignificant difference of 6.2 points per game.
With the first wave of free agency over, here are my initial 2012 fantasy football quarterback rankings:
The Top 12
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Only a Week 17 day off prevented Rodgers from being the top-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2011. With his key weapons back for 2012, expect more of the same.
2. Tom Brady, Patriots – Gains a deep threat in Brandon Lloyd making the New England offense even more unstoppable.
3. Drew Brees, Saints – More of a risk with head coach Sean Payton suspended for the 2012 season, the only key loss the team suffered on offense. Robert Meachem left town but he is replaceable.
4. Matthew Stafford, Lions – After his breakout 2011 season with over 5,000 passing yards and 41 touchdown passes, the only concern with Stafford is his health and that of wide receiver Calvin Johnson. With nothing of significance added to help replenish the team’s rushing attack, expect plenty of passes from the Lions once again next season.
 A repeat of 14 rushing TDs from Cam is too much to expect. 5. Cam Newton, Panthers – Newton burst onto the scene with 854 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and a pair of rushing scores in his first two games on his way to finishing the year as the fourth ranked fantasy quarterback. There are only two red flags. He threw for under 200 yards in each of his last three games (478 yards in those games) and it is highly unlikely he will reach 14 rushing touchdowns again – a league record for quarterbacks he set last season.
6. Michael Vick, Eagles – With Vick, it’s all about the injuries. If you peg him as missing one or two games, then he is close to being a top-five fantasy quarterback. If it’s four or five games, knock him down to somewhere between 10th and 12th.
7. Eli Manning, Giants – In leading the Giants to another Super Bowl victory, Manning enjoyed the finest year of his career with 4,933 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Mario Manningham left town but he wasn’t a key cog in the Giants regular season passing success in 2011.
8. Philip Rivers, Chargers – The weapons are leaving the Chargers offense with wide receiver Vincent Jackson and running back Mike Tolbert skipping town one year after the departure of Darren Sproles. That hurts as does having injury issues amongst his receivers (Antonio Gates, Robert Meachem and Malcom Floyd). But, can Rivers possibly be as bad as he was last year?
9. Matt Ryan, Falcons – Expect less from tight end Tony Gonzalez and running back Michael Turner but more from wide receivers Roddy White and especially, Julio Jones. Net result should be career-highs in passing yards and touchdowns.
10. Peyton Manning, Broncos – Broncos are sure to add to their offense but at this point they are missing a slot receiver and a running back capable of making big plays in the passing game. Check back later on this one.
11. Tony Romo, Cowboys – Star third wide receiver Laurent Robinson left town for the Jaguars, Jason Witten started looking old down the stretch and Miles Austin has hamstrings tighter than a steel bar. Oh, Dallas also found a running game last year with DeMarco Murray.
12. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers – The Bucs were a mess last year and Freeman suffered because of it. However, Vincent Jackson is in town to provide him with his first real deep threat and Mike Williams should benefit from drawing less attention. Freeman’s rushing prowess makes him the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback over other options such as Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler and Robert Griffin III.
Running backs up next…
By: Dave Stringer — March 19, 2012 @ 1:07 pm
The wide receiver signing most expected to happen entering free agency has finally occurred.
The New England Patriots have signed Brandon Lloyd to a multi-year deal. Reports indicate that Lloyd will sign a three-year, $12-million contract, a discount from what he was expected to sign for, particularly considering the free agent contracts that similar wide receivers have signed for this offseason.
 Lloyd is a significant upgrade for the Patriots at the WR position. In New England, Lloyd will be reunited with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. McDaniels was Lloyd’s head coach when he had a breakout season in 2010 and last season in St. Louis, where he served as the Rams offensive coordinator.
Lloyd posted career highs in every receiving category in 2010, finishing the season with 77 receptions for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns. Traded by the Broncos to the Rams in 2011, he finished last season with 70 receptions for 966 yards and five touchdowns.
The Patriots were in the market for a wide receiver capable of stretching opposing defenses and Lloyd has proven capable in that role over the last two seasons. He will start opposite Wes Welker and join a receiving cast featuring four Pro Bowl quality players including Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
Fantasy Impact
Let the hype machine start rolling and it is going to be based on Lloyd’s stellar 2010 production with McDaniels in Denver combined with Randy Moss’ other-worldly production with McDaniels in New England.
Let’s run down the reasons why Lloyd could bust out once again in 2012.
Moss consistently topped 1,000 yards and double digit touchdowns as the Patriots main deep threat, the role that Lloyd figures to fulfill this season. It is also worth noting that Lloyd’s breakout season came with Kyle Orton at quarterback and Tom Brady is several notches up the quarterback food chain from Orton.
Let’s also throw in that BenJarvus Green-Ellis remains unsigned so the Patriots current running back depth chart features a pair of unproven second-year players in Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen as well as Danny Woodhead, whose main role is as a receiver out of the backfield. If that situation doesn’t change, we can assume even more passing attempts in New England in 2012.
Time to switch to the cup is half-empty mode.
In his 2010 breakout season, Lloyd wasn’t just the Big Dog in Denver, he was the only dog. The team’s other wide receivers were Jabar Gaffney, a slumping Eddie Royal and a pair of largely unproductive rookies in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker.
That factor combined with the fact that Broncos finished 4-12 that season and spent plenty of time playing from behind helped Lloyd finish fourth in the league in targets.
Although the Patriots throw the ball plenty (the 3rd most in the league last season), Lloyd won’t be the Big Dog and there’s a chance he might be the Little Dog behind Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez.
Not helping matters is that Lloyd certainly won’t be the Red Zone Big Dog given the Patriots preference to either throw underneath to Welker or utilize the size of Gronkowski and Hernandez in red zone situations.
You see where I’m going on this one. The chances of Lloyd finishing as a top ten fantasy wide receiver in 2012 are very low. There certainly won’t be a repeat of his marvelous 2010 production. Consider Lloyd a mid-tier WR3 in 2012.
Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez are the fantasy losers with Lloyd’s signing as well as Rams quarterback Sam Bradford, at least if you were under the impression that Lloyd was considering re-signing with the Rams.
Welker should no longer be considered a top five fantasy wide receiver, except in PPR leagues.
In Gronkowski’s case, he remains the top ranked tight end but with lower overall production. Hernandez slides down a few notches but remains a top ten option.
The biggest fantasy football winner with Lloyd’s signing? Well, that has to be Brady. The fair-haired one comes out on top once again.
By: Dave Stringer — March 15, 2012 @ 8:51 am
The Kansas City Chiefs made their first foray into the 2012 free agent market, signing former Cleveland Browns running back Peyton Hillis.
 A change of scenery may do Hillis some good. Reports indicate that Hillis has agreed to a one-year, $3-million contract with the Chiefs. He is coming off an injury-marred, drama filled 2011 season in which his rushing yardage plummeted after a career-high 1,177 rushing yards in 2010.
In Kansas City, Hillis will be reunited with the team’s new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who filled that position with Cleveland in 2010. The Chiefs will pair Hillis in the backfield with Jamaal Charles, who also enjoyed a breakout 2010 campaign before missing 14 games last season due to a torn anterior cruciate ligament.
The Chiefs were in the market for a power back after the combination of Thomas Jones, Jackie Battle and LeRon McClain failed in that role last season. Hillis will fill that role in 2012 and also provide insurance if Charles struggles in his return from injury or isn’t ready to assume a large workload early in the season.
Hillis established himself as the Browns key offensive weapon during the 2010 season, gaining 1,177 yards on 270 carries and catching 61 passes for 477 yards while scoring 13 touchdowns.
However, he struggled during his last five games of the season and suffered through a miserable 2011 season in which he topped 100 rushing yards just once while being criticized for complaining about his contract, missing a game due to strep throat and angering the team’s management due to missing treatment for his various injuries.
Reports out of Cleveland indicate the Browns were so disenchanted with his behavior that they failed to make him a contract offer.
Fantasy Impact
The good news for Hillis is that he will be playing for an offensive coordinator who believes in him and has had success rushing the ball over the last two seasons (witness career seasons for Hillis in 2010 and Reggie Bush in Miami this past season). It is also nice that Hillis will be motivated to perform in order to secure a more lucrative long-term deal after the 2012 season.
However, there is no sugarcoating that Hillis would have been given every opportunity to compete for the starting job with Montario Hardesty in Cleveland but in Kansas City, he has almost no chance of unseating Charles as the team’s starting running back.
While Hillis had an opportunity to enter 2012 as a mid-tier RB2 in Cleveland, he will be no better than an RB3 or flex option in Kansas City. For reference, take note of Thomas Jones’ 2010 production as Charles’ backup when he gained 896 rushing yards and six touchdowns. That production is Hillis’ upside for the coming season, assuming Charles remains injury free.
Given that it was known that the Chiefs were in the market for a power back and his production splitting time with Jones in 2010, Charles’ value remains static as a top 10 fantasy running back, again assuming he is sufficiently recovered from the knee injury that ended his 2011 season.
Since that injury occurred early in the season, expect Charles to be ready to assume a full load early in 2012 although he is unlikely to produce at his 2010 levels until mid-season at the earliest.
In Cleveland, quarterback Colt McCoy, the team’s current starter but with no guarantees that will remain the case on opening day, loses his best pass catching threat out of the backfield while Montario Hardesty immediately climbs to the top of the depth chart.
Unfortunately for Hardesty and his fantasy owners, the Browns are almost certain to replenish their running back depth chart and there is a possibility the team will use the 4th overall pick in the draft on Alabama running back Trent Richardson. In addition, they could look to the free agent market where the options currently include Michael Bush, Cedric Benson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Mike Tolbert, Ryan Grant and Brandon Jacobs, amongst others.
By: Dave Stringer — March 14, 2012 @ 11:20 am
The Buccaneers have joined the 2012 free agency fray, landing the top available free agent wide receiver in former Charger Vincent Jackson.
Jackson will reportedly sign a five-year, $55-million contract with Tampa Bay that includes $36-million in payments over the first three years of the deal.
With second-year players Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn suffering through sophomore slumps in 2011, the Buccaneers were in the market for a big play wide receiver and Jackson figures to take over as the team’s top threat at the position in 2012.
The former Division II player out of Northern Colorado possesses excellent size (6’5” 230 pounds) and speed, as his career average yards per catch of 17.5 indicates. Jackson has also shown the ability to out jump defenders on deep balls.
Removing his injury-marred, suspension and contract holdout shortened 2010 season, Jackson caught 187 passes for 3,371 yards and 25 touchdowns during the 2008, 2009 and 2011 seasons.
Despite his solid production, the Chargers were unwilling to sign him to a lucrative long-term contract given their belief that he had failed to reach his potential, his constant injury issues and their concerns regarding his off the field behavior.
Fantasy Impact
 Jackson's move to Tampa may not improve his fantasy stock. Off the top, this move has to be viewed as lowering Vjax’s fantasy value. He goes from catching passes from one of the top quarterbacks in the league and playing in the league’s 5th ranked scoring offense to playing with a far more inexperienced quarterback coming off a horrible season and playing in the league’s 27th ranked scoring offense. Let’s get one of those pointing down arrows and stick it beside his name.
Jackson was the 10th ranked fantasy wide receiver in 2011 but he rates as a mid-tier WR2 in 2012. Simply put, Josh Freeman is coming off a horrendous season and has not proven to be as accurate on deep passes as Philip Rivers and those plays have been Jackson’s bread and butter throughout his career in San Diego.
Freeman obviously wins out as he now has a true number one wide receiver for the first time in his career and the Bucs receiving depth chart rounds out nicely with Williams, Benn, Preston Parker, Dezmon Briscoe and Sammie Stroughter. Freeman ranks as a high-end fantasy backup with upside in 2012.
Williams wasn’t a complete bust last season but he was clearly a huge disappointment, as his yardage and touchdown totals plummeted from his solid rookie season in 2010 when he caught 64 passes for 955 yards and 11 touchdowns. Given Jackson’s size and ability to stretch the field, Williams figures to be featured on more short and intermediate routes in 2012 and his red zone opportunities also figure to be diminished.
Williams rates as fantasy backup in 2012 but is worth taking a flier on provided he shows a renewed dedication and reports to training camp in better physical condition than was the case in 2011.
Outside of deep leagues and dynasty formats, Benn’s fantasy value basically drops to nil. Unless he beats out Williams, he is waiver wire material in most formats.
However, the biggest fantasy loser is Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, who loses his top wide receiver and arguably San Diego’s top receiving option ahead of tight end Antonio Gates. While Robert Meachem will take over for Jackson in the Chargers starting line-up, he is an inconsistent player and both Gates and Malcom Floyd, the team’s other starting wide receiver, have proven to be injury-prone. Rivers moves to low-end starter status in 2012.
Both Meachem and Floyd see their fantasy values rise but neither should be relied on as a starting option in 2012 until they prove otherwise.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 11:02 am
If his Facebook page can be believed, former Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon has landed in Washington.
 Garcon: A new target for RGIII. He will reportedly sign a five-year contract worth in excess of $40-million with over half of that amount guaranteed.
With the team’s trade with St. Louis to acquire the 2nd overall pick in the draft (and the likely selection of Robert Griffin III) and reports indicating the team is also on the verge of signing former 49er Josh Morgan, the Redskins figure to start the season with new starters at quarterback and both wide receiver positions as head coach Mike Shanahan continues to overhaul the team’s offense.
Playing alongside Reggie Wayne, Garcon posted career highs in receptions with 70 and yards with 947 while scoring six touchdowns.
In Garcon, the Redskins add a player with tantalizing talent to their roster but one who has frustrated his coaches and quarterbacks with his frequent drops and questionable route running. The former Division III player from Mount Union possesses outstanding speed and solid size at 6’0” and 210 pounds but has been plagued by inconsistencies.
Morgan missed all but five games last season after suffering a broken leg, finishing the year with 15 receptions for 220 yards and one touchdown. The 2008 6th round pick burst onto the scene with an impressive training camp performance as a rookie but largely failed to assert himself as consistent receiving option during his four years in San Francisco.
While the 49ers were clearly interested in having him return, they were not willing to offer him the type of contract he received from Washington, which reportedly includes $12-million in salary over its first two years.
With Garcon and Morgan now on the roster and reports indicate that former Bronco Eddie Royal is likely to sign with the Redskins, it appears that Santana Moss’ days with the team are numbered.
Fantasy Impact
The biggest winner with these signings has to be Griffin. Garcon and Morgan offer far more potential than a diminutive, 33-year old Moss and Jabar Gaffney. Throw in tight end Fred Davis, entering his 5th year and coming off a career season, and the Redskins now boast plenty of young talent in their receiving corps.
While Garcon looks the part of a number one wide receiver, he has done little to justify the belief that he can fulfill that role. Washington is banking on Garcon fulfilling on his immense potential.
However, despite being on the receiving end of passes from perhaps the most accurate quarterback in the history of the league, Garcon caught just 55.1% of his passes during his first three years in the NFL.
On the plus side, he had a career year in 2011 catching passes from the likes of Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky. That provides some comfort and indicates that even with Griffin under center, Garcon’s downside, barring injury, figures to be his 2011 production where he finished as the 22nd ranked fantasy wide receiver, although that ranking was burnished by a number of injuries and poor performances to receivers across the league. Garcon should be considered a mid-tier WR3 entering 2012 but one with upside.
As for Morgan, he is a solid fit as the second option in a West Coast passing offense given his size and willingness to go over the middle. While he has a respectable career average yards per catch of 13.5, he doesn’t possess great deep speed. He is clearly a fantasy backup in all leagues but a player with more value in PPR leagues. A breakout 2012 campaign is very unlikely.
Moss is clearly the biggest loser with these moves as he will need to find a new team next season. Coming off his worst season since his second year in the league in 2002, it seems unlikely that any team will consider him a starting option in 2012.
Another fantasy loser is Andrew Luck, the Colts expected 2012 starter, who is now without the team’s top deep threat from 2011.
By: Dave Stringer — March 13, 2012 @ 7:55 pm
Just three years after the Denver Broncos broke up one of the most promising quarterback-wide receiver duos in the league in Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, the pair will be reunited in 2012 in Chicago.
Reports indicate that the Bears have traded their 3rd round pick in each of the next two drafts to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for Marshall.
 Marshall is taking his talents to Chicago. During their time together in Denver, Cutler and Marshall combined to form one of the league’s most lethal quarterback-wide receiver combinations. Taken together in the 2006 draft (Cutler in the 1st and Marshall in the 4th), they rose to prominence during the 2007 season with Marshall on the receiving end of 102 passes for 1,325 yards and seven touchdowns.
For Marshall, that marked the beginning of three consecutive seasons that he topped 100 receptions and 1,000 yards. During that period, he amassed 307 receptions for 3,710 yards and 23 touchdowns.
Cutler was the Broncos quarterback for two of those seasons, throwing for 8,022 yards and 45 touchdowns.
However, the duo was broken up in 2008 when Josh McDaniels took over for the fired Mike Shanahan. McDaniels flirtation with current Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel led to Cutler’s trade to the Bears.
Marshall followed Cutler out of Denver the following season; traded to the Dolphins for a pair of 2nd round picks.
In Chicago, Marshall immediately becomes the team’s top wide receiver. The Bears have failed to land a true number one wide receiver for several seasons with Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Roy Williams and Earl Bennett failing in that role in 2011.
Fantasy Impact
The Dolphins chances of landing former Colts quarterback Peyton Manning are likely over with Marshall landing in Chicago unless this move is to clear cap space and facilitate the signing of Manning and wideout Reggie Wayne. Suffice it to say that the task for whoever is starting in Miami in 2012 just got a whole lot tougher.
In Chicago, there are plenty of questions with the Bears passing offense.
Can Cutler and Marshall reclaim their magic? Can Cutler produce more with offensive coordinator Mike Martz out of the picture? Will new offensive coordinator Mike Tice bring the team’s passing attack to a new level? Can the team fortify the offensive line to give the team’s passing attack a fighting chance?
Cutler is just 28 years of age and Marshall is 27. With five consecutive seasons of at least 1,000 receiving yards, Marshall has plenty left to offer. Despite being battered for much of his time in Chicago, Cutler’s best years almost certainly lie ahead of him.
Cutler was a fantasy backup prior to this trade but with Marshall in the fold, he becomes a low-end starting option or high-end backup, assuming the team’s offensive line play improves. Look for Cutler to top the 3,666 passing yards he had in Chicago in 2009, his highest total with the team.
Marshall figures to put up numbers similar to his time in Miami, where he averaged 83.5 receptions for 1,114 yards and 4.5 touchdowns. Look for the touchdown numbers to improve.
Hester, Bennett and Knox will battle for the starting spot opposite Marshall but none of them will be solid fantasy options in 2012.
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