FFT's Blog O' Fantasy Football

Quarterbacks

Moving Up

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
Every year, a couple of quarterbacks seemingly come out of nowhere and put together a career season and Fitzpatrick is in line for such a performance in 2011. He ain’t pretty, he’s just getting a lot of yards and wins for his team and for his fantasy owners. After three weeks, it’s high time for his owners to start thinking about riding him and moving whoever they acquired to be their fantasy starter in a trade to shore up their roster. Fitzpatrick has 841 passing yards and nine touchdowns for the season but his yardage total isn’t overly impressive because he was limited to 208 yards passing in a Week 1 blowout win over the Chiefs (offset by four touchdown passes). He looks starter worthy for the remainder of the season.

Mike Kafka, Eagles
I had him here last week. Just saying. With Michael Vick possibly out with a badly bruised right hand, Kafka has a chance to be under center in a Week 4 matchup against a 49er secondary that is generous to opposing offenses. He didn’t look as good this week as he did last (two interceptions in mop up duty) but he is worth a look if he plays and you are desperate for a starter this week.

Moving Down

Michael Vick, Eagles
He’s not Moving Down just because he’s hurt, although the evidence is mounting that the odds of him staying healthy for an extended period are extremely low. He’s also here because he hasn’t been that good… certainly nowhere near as productive as he was in 2010. Vick is averaging just over 200 yards passing per game despite facing a porous Rams secondary, the Falcons mid-tier passing defense and a banged up Giants secondary. What’s also hurting is that he hasn’t been able to pad his fantasy stats with rushing touchdowns, having failed to find the end zone on the ground in 2011 after having nine rushing touchdowns in 12 games last year.

Running Backs

Moving Up

Ryan Mathews is taking over the Chargers backfield.

Ryan Mathews, Chargers
It sure looked like a boy became a man this week as Mathews ran all over the Chiefs defense. With Mathews adding short yardage situations and receiving chores to his regular workload, he had his finest day as a pro, rushing for 98 yards and a pair of scores and catching four passes for 51 yards. Mike Tolbert played strictly as a backup and the question is whether that is his new role or whether his snaps were limited as a result of a calf injury. Given Mathews performance and Tolbert’s lackluster start to the season (2.6 yards per carry), look for Mathews to get a much bigger workload going forward.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets
Do you get the feeling the light’s never going to go on for Shonn Greene? Despite facing some mediocre run defenses (Cowboys, Jaguars, Raiders), he is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on 41 rushes for 134 yards and a score. Meanwhile, Tomlinson is chipping in on passing downs and looking like he did over the early part of 2010. At this point, he has 30.9 fantasy points to 25.4 for Greene. If you buy the theory that the Jets aren’t going to be blowing anybody out, then LT should be getting a fair amount of work. He’s a decent flex option and that’s a step up from what was expected in the preseason.

Joseph Addai, Colts
It’s renaissance week on Moving Up, Moving Down. Next we present Joseph Addai, frequently injured, easily forgotten but highly productive this week against a stingy Steelers run defense. Rookie 4th round pick Delone Carter had just four touches while Addai carried the rock 17 times for 86 yards and a score. That’s impressive production against Pittsburgh. Maybe, just maybe the Colts have figured out that running the ball is preferable to having an aging Kerry Collins or an inexperienced Curtis Painter chucking it.

Kendall Hunter, 49ers
If there were any lingering doubts as to who Frank Gore’s handcuff was, they were answered this week when he went out with a right ankle sprain. Hunter stepped in and looked decent, gaining 26 yards on nine carries including a game winning seven-yard touchdown. Hunter had a solid training camp to wrestle the backup job away from Anthony Dixon and figures to get the start next week if Gore can’t go. That game is on the road against an Eagles run defense that looks absolutely horrible and is ranked 30th in the league. That makes Hunter worthy of a start if Gore is out.

Alfonso Smith, Cardinals
LaRod Stephens-Howling was supposed to Beanie Wells backup and then Chester Taylor was signed and he was supposed to be Wells’ backup. So much for that. With Wells out this week against the Seahawks, Smith stepped in and ran for 54 yards on 17 carries and caught three passes for 21 yards. Meanwhile, Taylor looked washed up, gaining just 20 yards on 8 carries while catching one pass for 12 yards. You can hardly say that Smith looked great but what you can say is that Beanie is one of the best in the league at finding a way out of the line up. This time, it was a hamstring and we all know how tricky they can be.

Moving Down

Chris Johnson, Titans
I gave him three weeks and it turns out that was one week too many. Against a Broncos run defense that has struggled since, oh say, the Karl Mecklenburg days, Johnson was abysmal, gaining just 21 yards on 13 carries. And you can’t blame the Titans passing attack for allowing opposing defenses to drop eight and nine man fronts on rushing downs since Matt Hasselbeck is looking like he’s 28, not 36. In fact, the passing game helped pad Johnson’s fantasy stats as he caught four passes for 54 yards. Expect better days ahead but maybe those days are further off than was expected after his lengthy holdout.

Tim Hightower, Redskins
I don’t own Hightower now, I never have and I never will. Why? He’s just not that good. If there’s a poster boy for Sell High, he is it. The Redskins turned up the O in the preseason and Hightower looked great. Then the season opened and with opposing defenses not going plan vanilla, Hightower’s true colors begin to show. This week against Dallas, he managed just 41 yards on 14 carries but his fantasy performance was saved with a touchdown pass at the goal line. For the season, he is averaging 3.5 yards per carry and the odds of head coach Mike Shanahan sticking with that kind of production with dynamic rookie 4th round pick Roy Helu and Ryan Torain (4.5 yards per carry in the same offense last season) in reserve are pretty low.

Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
Of all the running backs generally ranked in the top ten, Mendenhall generally been the one the most likely not to give his fantasy owners the warm fuzzies. Sure, he plays in a Steelers offense determined to get him the ball but their offensive line has had their issues over the past couple of season and this year is shaping up to be no different. The red lights should be flashing when a player of Mendenhall’s caliber can only manage 37 yards on 18 carries against a Colts run defense that is amongst the smallest in the league in the front seven. For the season, Mendenhall has is averaging a paltry 3.0 yards per carry with 148 yards on 49 carries despite two of those games being against the Colts and Seahawks. It’s one thing to get shut down by the Ravens (as happened in Week 1), it’s quite another to get shut down by these teams.

James Starks, Packers
Can you say yo-yo? Starks was Moving Up two weeks straight but this week, he’s moving down courtesy of a disheartening 11 carry, five yard performance against the Bears coupled with Ryan Grant’s 17 carry, 92 yard outing. With Grant questionable this week with a bruised kidney, Starks figures to get another shot against a suspect Denver run defense and he needs to make the most of it.

Wide Receivers

Moving Up

Torrey Smith, Ravens
Well, if Smith isn’t the top wide receiver Moving Up, then my credibility goes out the window (would only need to be one of those small basement windows). Smith saw one target over the Ravens first two games but got an opportunity this week with Lee Evans out of the line up and absolutely lit up the Rams secondary by catching five of his nine targets for 152 yards and three touchdowns. Smith did it with pure speed, blowing past Rams defenders repeatedly (quarterback Joe Flacco missed him an open deep route in the end zone). While Smith looked great and may have Wally Pipped Evans, it’s worth noting that most of his yardage came against Rams reserve cornerback Justin King, who was starting in place Ron Bartell, and 2nd year safety Darian Stewart who was making his first career start.

Nate Washington, Titans
Kenny Britt was Moving Up last week and it’s Washington’s turn courtesy of Britt’s season ending knee injury. Although Washington has never become the complete player the Titans envisioned when they signed him away from the Steelers after the 2008 season, he assumes the number one wide receiver role in Tennessee with Britt out and his performance over the first three games of the season indicate that he just might be able to perform as one for the first time in his career. Washington has caught 21 of his 27 targets this season (a nifty 77.8% completion percentage) for 258 yards and one touchdown. Consider him a low-end WR2 for the balance of the season.

Victor Cruz, Giants
Let’s be honest. Watching Cruz play, it’s easy to tell that he’s not the most talented wide receiver in the league (my wife remarked that he looked slow on his 74-yard touchdown reception). But there’s a big hole in a Giants offense that is desperate for a player to step up and take the place of the departed Steve Smith and Cruz made a huge claim to that role with his three reception, 110 yard, two touchdown performance this week. In addition to the long touchdown pass, Cruz outfought Eagles cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (you may have heard of him) for a 28-yard touchdown reception. More recommended for PPR leagues and those that employ a flex position but still worth adding in all formats considering Mario Manningham’s injury situation and history of inconsistent performances.

Michael Jenkins, Vikings
Honestly, this is as lukewarm an endorsement as you may ever see in Moving Up. He’s clearly not the Vikings most talented wide receiver but he seems to be the one who plays the most snaps. If you’ve given up on Bernard Berrian (and you should since the Vikings surely will once they see he has caught one of his ten targets), then Jenkins is the go to own outside of Harvin. Or maybe he’s the Vikings receiver to own since he has 20.3 fantasy points and Harvin has 20.4. He can certainly be had for less than it would cost to trade for Harvin. Sometimes it pays to look through the bargain bins.

Dane Sanzenbacher, Bears
Seven targets and a touchdown in each of his last two games. Let’s face it – Roy Williams isn’t the answer (no receptions on four targets this week with a drop), and they demoted Johnny Knox for Williams. Devin Hester runs screen and flys and Earl Bennett was out this week with a chest injury. For larger leagues only.

Moving Down

DeSean Jackson, Eagles
Jackson has put up decidedly mediocre numbers over the past two weeks after having a solid Week 1 outing against the Rams with six receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown. After watching Torrey Smith light up St. Louis, we’ll put an asterisk beside that one. The Falcons and Giants both gave Jackson a healthy dose of double coverage, limiting him to two receptions in each game and 51 total receiving yards. The blue print is out there. Jackson is clearly talented enough to beat double coverage but the odds of that happening with either an injured Vick or Mike Kafka under center are slim.

Mike Thomas, Jaguars
Should wide receivers who put up 11.5 fantasy points be Moving Down? In this case, you betcha. Thomas has some positives being the lead wide receiver on a team that figures to be behind early and often and he’s currently 8th in the league in targets with 29. However, he’s turned those targets into just 139 yards so at some point, the Jaguars are going to start dishing those out to somebody else. Amongst the top 30 wide receivers in targets, Thomas has the fewest yards, behind only Mike Williams of Tampa Bay who has 89 yards on 22 targets.

Bernard Berrian, Vikings
As noted above, one reception in ten targets doesn’t get you much of a spot in the game plan.

Tight Ends

Moving Up

Owen Daniels, Texans
Admit it. You thought that was a typo and it was supposed to say James Casey. This is why it’s important to watch the games. While Casey had the third highest point total amongst tight ends with five receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown and 11 yards rushing on one carry, 62 of his receiving yards came on a blown coverage and the rushing yards were also a gift as the Saints were clearly not expecting him to get the ball. Basically, the Texans did a wonderful job of surprising the Saints by giving a healthy number of touches to Casey and that only works once. More exciting was seeing Daniels get nine targets and catching five of those for 76 yards and a touchdown. Wide receivers Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones are AWOL in the passing game (five combined targets this week although Walters scored on a fluke play) and that makes Daniels an enticing tight end to have.

Moving Down

Kellen Winslow, Bucs
A knee injury may have slowed Winslow this week and helped cause a 2 for 20 day but the bottom line is that the Bucs passing attack has been woeful and Winslow has not been able to find the end zone or make any big plays. For the season, he has just 12 receptions for 130 yards on 20 targets and there’s a disturbing trend developing. Winslow hasn’t had double-digit targets since Week 7 of last season and since that game he is averaging just 5.6 targets per game. Sell now.

Quarterbacks

Moving Up

Cam Newton, Panthers
As debuts go, you couldn’t have asked for more. In the “stating the obvious” category, we give you Cam Newton. Facing a group of Cardinals cornerbacks that can charitably be called up-and-coming, Newton went gangbusters, throwing for 422 yards (the most ever by a quarterback in their first start) and a pair of touchdowns while chipping in 18 yards and another score on the ground. His 36.9 fantasy points were third most among quarterbacks in Week 1, so the question is: Is he the next coming of Michael Vick or a one week flash in the pan? We’d settle for something in the middle, and that figures to be a whole lot more than was predicted during the preseason.

Matthew Stafford, Lions
I’m not putting him here because I was surprised by his 305-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Buccaneers. That wasn’t surprising. I’m putting him here because I don’t want a torrent of comments about why he’s not Moving Up. Frankly, I had him as a low-end starter, but maybe he’s more of a mid-tier starter. Health is always a concern, however.

Chad Henne, Dolphins
New Dolphins offensive coordinator Brian Daboll promised to open up the offense, and that’s what he did on Monday night. Henne completed 30 of 49 passes for a career-high 416 yards. He also chipped in two passing touchdowns and a score on the ground. By the end of the game, he had chalked up an impressive 40.6 fantasy points, the second most of any quarterback in Week 1.

Mark Sanchez, Jets
Sure, the Cowboys secondary was chewed up, forcing them to play their fourth and fifth best cornerbacks for large chunks of the game. Sure, Sanchez had a stretch where he looked a tad short of awful. But he looked different in Week 1. And, no, I can’t put my finger on exactly what it was. The Cowboys came after him hard, but Sanchez stood in there, completing 26 of 44 passes for 333 yards and a pair of touchdowns with one pick. Maybe, just maybe, he is ready to take a step forward and provide the Jets with a more consistent passing attack. He’s not a fantasy starter yet, but I’m moving him up to mid-tier backup based on his Week 1 performance.

Moving Down

Donovan McNabb, Vikings
The optimists said McNabb’s one-and-done showing in Washington had more to do with Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan than McNabb’s own performance. The pessimists said Shanahan knows quarterbacks and if he was giving up on McNabb one year after having used a second-round pick to acquire him, then he must be done. His Week 1 performance showed that the probability of McNabb having a renaissance season in 2011 for the Vikings is very low. He threw for a career-low 39 yards (with just two total yards in the second half) during Minnesota’s 24-17 loss to the Chargers. Not that second-half adjustments were needed, but I guess they really worked. To the scrap heap with McNabb, my friends.

Running Backs

Moving Up

James Starks, Green Bay
Let’s see…Starks is bigger than Ryan Grant, he’s stronger and he’s faster. Sure, he has some hiccups in pass protection, but only one of the two sacks that he was on the field for was his fault. By the end of the Packers’ Week 1 game against the Saints, Starks had chalked up 12 carries (to only nine for Grant), gaining 57 yards and impressively battling his way to the end zone on a touchdown run. Plus, Starks was on the field far more than Grant and, simply put, he is the more talented runner. I will eat crow if he isn’t starting by midseason.

Ben Tate, Texans
With Arian Foster out of the lineup with a hamstring injury, the Texans were forced to use backups during their key divisional matchup in Week 1 against the Colts. Although Houston announced that veteran Derrick Ward would replace Foster in the starting lineup, it wasn’t hard to predict that Tate would get the majority of the work considering his strong preseason play. Sure enough, he ran it often and ran it well, piling up 121 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. He is worthy of a start as long as Foster remains out, and he could be a solid flex option even when Foster returns.

Cadillac Williams, Rams
Steven Jackson suffered a strained quadriceps on his first play of the year, a 47-yard touchdown run against the Eagles, and was finished for the day after testing the injury on one more play. It is unknown if Jackson will miss any time, and although he has a history of playing through injuries, the Rams may be more willing to have him sit out a game or two now that they have a proven backup. Williams played well against the Eagles, carrying the ball 19 times for 91 yards and catching five passes for 49 yards. He is starter worthy if SJax is out of the lineup.

Moving Down

Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
One play can make a day and one thundering touchdown run in the playoffs can make a player an RB2. Before the next regular season starts, at least. Lynch was getting far more love than he deserved in fantasy drafts this year, with some predicting a breakout season for the former Bills first-round pick. However, there was no basis for ranking Lynch higher than an RB3, and even that was giving him more credit than he deserves. Tarvaris Jackson is starting at quarterback, there are issues along the offensive line, the top wide receiver is injury-prone and, most importantly, Lynch isn’t that good and he wasn’t very good in 2010. Against the 49ers in Week 1, he ran it 13 times for 33 yards, averaging 2.5 yards per carry, which is slightly worse than his 3.6 yards per carry in 2010 and his 3.8 average in 2009. Yards per carry—use it. It means something. In this case: Plodder.

Ryan Grant, Packers
At the conclusion of the preseason, the Packers announced that Grant would open as the starter but that they planned to rotate him with James Stark. Turns out rotate meant Grant would play one-third of the time with Starks playing the rest. That’s not good news for Grant owners. He’s a borderline starter in deeper leagues but should be on the bench in standard 10- and 12-team leagues.

Wide Receivers

Moving Up

Smith: A WR2 moving forward.

Steve Smith, Panthers
A combination of his age and the Panthers’ entering the season with rookie Cam Newton at quarterback had Smith’s preseason rankings at an all-time low. Looks like most of us were wrong on both counts. Newton played well and Smith was the Panthers’ biggest beneficiary, catching eight passes for 176 yards and a pair of touchdowns, good enough for 29.8 fantasy points. Not bad for a guy who hit double fantasy points just twice in 2010. Smith deserves to be considered a WR2 for the balance of 2011.

Devery Henderson, Saints
Henderson is coming off a solid Week 1 performance with six receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown, and Marques Colston is expected to miss four to six weeks with a broken collarbone. Production plus opportunity equals success. Alright, that hasn’t always been the case with Henderson; but with Lance Moore missing Week 1 with a groin injury and remaining a question mark for Week 2, the Saints may have no choice but to start Henderson and Robert Meachem. If that happens, Henderson is worthy of a spot in your starting lineup.

Randall Cobb, Packers
Two catches for 35 yards and a touchdown shouldn’t get you a spot in Moving Up, but all you had to do was watch the game to know that this guy is special. Just reading the box scores isn’t going to carry you to too many fantasy football championships. Cobb remains a backup wide receiver in all formats but he is dynasty-league gold. Mark it down.

Jacoby Jones, Texans
If it seems like Jones is a perennial tease, that’s because he is. In Week 1, however, he showcased his playmaking ability, taking a punt return 79 yards for a touchdown. He also chipped in three receptions for 43 yards in the Texans’ blowout win over the Colts. Here’s the case for Jones: Kevin Walter could be out for the year, Jones caught all of his targets, and he would have had more looks had the Texans not run away with it early.

Doug Baldwin, Seahawks
I saw a smallish-looking player on the field for the Seahawks on Sunday and my first thought was, he must have played for head coach Pete Carroll at USC. But he was actually a rookie from Stanford who played for 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh. Go figure. He led the Seahawks in targets with six, catching four passes for 83 yards, including a 55-yard, fourth-quarter touchdown that pulled the Seahawks close to the 49ers. Baldwin is a slot receiver all the way, so Sidney Rice’s absence likely doesn’t impact him. He’s probably fighting with Golden Tate for playing time (and Tate wasn’t that great, catching one of five targets for eight yards, although it was for a touchdown). For deep, deep leagues only (really deep—got it).

Moving Down

Chad Ochocinco, Patriots
It’s hard to score many fantasy points when you are never on the field. On a day when quarterback Tom Brady threw for a ridiculous 517 yards, Ochocinco caught a single pass for 14 yards. While game plans change from week to week, the Patriots would be foolhardy to reduce the number of two-tight-end sets they use; that would take either Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez off the field. A further hurdle for Ochocinco is that Wes Welker and Deion Branch are entrenched as the team’s top two wide receivers. Did I mention that Matt Slater is getting the work as the team’s deep threat? That leaves #85 with the scraps.

Danny Amendola, Rams
After catching 85 passes a year ago, Amendola shaped up as a great option in PPR leagues in 2011 with new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels expected to bring a more high-powered offense to St. Louis. Unfortunately, Amendola suffered a dislocated elbow during the Rams’ Week 1 loss to the Eagles and he will be out for at least the next few weeks.

James Jones, Packers
It’s not so much his Week 1 production (one target, one reception, one yard), it’s the performance of the Packers’ other wide receivers that should be cause for concern for James Jones owners. With a nagging knee injury, his poor performance is easily explained away. Unfortunately for Jones, Donald Driver looks rejuvenated (four receptions for 41yards), Jordy Nelson looks established as the team’s top backup (six for 77 and a score), and Randall Cobbs looks like a future superstar (two for 35 and a touchdown to go along with a kickoff return touchdown and punt return that he was so close to turning into another score). The final nail in the coffin is that, as expected, the Packers used tight end Jermichael Finley in their four-receiver formations. That means Jones is going to have to surpass Driver and Nelson on the depth chart to get any meaningful playing time. I won’t be shocked if he doesn’t dress in Week 2.

Kevin Walter, Texans
He’s out at least 10 weeks with a shoulder injury. He was a borderline backup fantasy WR at best, so this news sinks any value he had.

Tight Ends

Moving Up

Ed Dickson, Ravens
Ah, now I see why the Ravens dumped Todd Heap early in training camp. This Dickson guy has got game. He made a great catch in the end zone for a touchdown and tossed in four more receptions, finishing Week 1 with 59 receiving yards and 11.9 fantasy points. With only two proven wide receivers on the roster, one of which is highly inconsistent, Dickson figures to get plenty of looks in the Ravens offense. And if Week 1 is any indication (and it should be when the Ravens score 35 points on the Steelers’ defense), the Ravens will have a top-10 offense in 2011. Dickson could be a low-end TE1 by season’s end.

Scott Chandler, Bills
He caught one pass last season. That reception was the only one of his four-year career. One of those years, he was out of the league altogether. So what did Chandler do in Week 1 against the Chiefs? How about catch five balls for 63 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Not one. Two. The Bills likely would have settled for two touchdowns for the year considering the pathetic play of their tight ends during the 2010 season, another in a long line of non-existent production from the position. The Bills won’t put up 41 points every week, and maybe they won’t reach that again in 2011, but Chandler moves up into TE2 category based on his Week 1 performance.

Moving Down

Lance Kendricks, Rams
Kendricks had what appeared to be a solid preseason, scoring on three touchdown catches, but he also dropped a number of passes. He continued that disturbing trend this week against the Eagles, catching one of five targets but dropping two easy catches, one of which likely would have resulted in a six-yard touchdown. Kendricks was getting some love as a potential low-end fantasy starter, but his suspect hands mean he’s going to be fighting off Michael Hoomanawanui when he returns from a calf injury.