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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Mike Krueger — August 15, 2011 @ 3:34 am
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/15
Quarterbacks
- Matt Ryan (+1) may have the best wide receiver tandem in the league.
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
- Dez Bryant (+4) gets pushed into the 1000-yard receiver club. Every time I update the Rankings, he’s moving higher. At this rate, he’ll be my #1 WR by September 1st.
- This undisclosed illness business with Jeremy Maclin (-3) is worrisome. His Week 1 status is in question.
- Lance Moore (+5) is becoming everybody’s sleeper, value play, and man-crush. I’m on board.
- Lee Evans’ (+1) move to Baltimore is only a marginal increase in his fantasy value… it likely benefits Boldin and Rice more than Evans himself.
- Legedu Naanee (+64) has a chance at a starting receiver role due to the ACL injury to David Gettis (dropped).
Tight Ends
- Antonio Gates (-100 yds) remains my #1 TE but ongoing talk of him being on a snap count is eroding my confidence in him.
- Greg Olsen (+6) is clearly going to be a main weapon in this offense, especially considering the lack of quality wide receivers.
Kickers
By: Dave Stringer — August 12, 2011 @ 9:00 pm
QB Drew Brees
 Last season, Brees wasn’t the same quarterback he was in 2008 and 2009, but he still produced another solid fantasy season, averaging 22.7 fantasy points per game in standard scoring leagues. He wasn’t as impressive in leagues that penalize interceptions, however, as he threw a career-high 22 picks. That can be blamed on two factors: the performance of the team’s receivers, and the situation at running back. Both Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson struggled last season, and injuries decimated the running back depth chart, with an undrafted rookie earning significant playing time. The rushing attack was addressed with the addition of Mark Ingram, and the team’s wide receivers should perform better in 2011, although lead receiver Marques Colston’s recovery from a knee injury remains a concern. No matter, as Brees and the Saints spread the ball around and Brees produces consistently, averaging 4,586 passing yards and 31 touchdown passes over the last five years. Hopefully he can cut down on those drive-killing interceptions in 2011. He’s a top-three fantasy quarterback, and that’s pretty much guaranteed if the past is any indication. He’s finished third, second, first, third, and second over the past five years.
RB Mark Ingram
After watching their rushing attack crash back to earth in 2010, the Saints addressed the issue by moving up in the first round of the draft to select Ingram. He was very productive in college at Alabama, helping lead the Tide to a National Championship and winning the Heisman Trophy in the process. He has been compared to Emmitt Smith as a tough, physical runner who lacks breakaway speed. In New Orleans, he joins a crowded backfield and figures to be part of a committee—along with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles—given head coach Sean Payton’s preference for sharing the workload in the backfield. That limits his upside. However, he should get the short-yardage work with Thomas struggling in that area, and he will probably also be the team’s closer if he can avoid fumbling. He’s a RB3 entering the season, but one with upside if he can win the starting job outright, or if the brittle Thomas gets injured once again.
RB Pierre Thomas
When healthy, Thomas has been a productive running back ever since making the team as an undrafted rookie free agent in 2007. While he doesn’t excel in any one facet of the game, he is better than average in several areas, save for short-yardage work, where he has struggled. The issue for Thomas is that he hasn’t been healthy enough, playing in just 35 games over the past three seasons. With the Saints having determined that Thomas can’t stay healthy for an entire season as the lead back (and with plenty of evidence to support that conclusion), they traded up in the first round of the draft to acquire Mark Ingram. Ingram’s presence doesn’t exactly spell doom for Thomas’ fantasy value, considering that Thomas has averaged a healthy 10.8 fantasy points per game in two- and three-player committees, when he’s been in the lineup. However, it clearly limits his upside, and his injury history has to be a concern. Being a part of the Saints’ great offense increases his appeal and makes Thomas an RB3, though one with limited upside given Ingram’s presence.
RB Darren Sproles
Having traded Reggie Bush to the Miami Dolphins, the Saints acquired former Charger running back Darren Sproles to fill Bush’s role in the New Orleans offense. Sproles joins a revamped backfield that includes Pierre Thomas, rookie first-round pick Mark Ingram, and second-year player Chris Ivory. While Sproles is a dynamic player, he isn’t Bush’s equal. Furthermore, the Saints gave a long-term contract to Lance Moore, who essentially subbed in for Bush in the passing game when he was injured. That will limit Sproles’ touches on passing downs. In addition, Ingram and Thomas will get nearly all the work on running downs. Add it all up and it doesn’t seem likely that Sproles will earn enough touches to have much fantasy value in 2011. He is waiver wire material unless those above him on the depth chart get injured.
WR Marques Colston
Despite battling the injury bug, it was another good year for Colston in 2010 as the Saints top wide receiver hauled in 84 passes for 1,022 yards and seven touchdowns. Removing an injury-shortened year in 2008, he has averaged 1,084 yards and 8.8 touchdowns per season, numbers that scream WR1 for fantasy purposes. But don’t be hasty. Colston is coming off microfracture surgery on his right knee, and reports indicate that he has had three surgeries on that knee over the past year. He also previously had microfracture surgery on his left knee. That’s a lot of surgeries for a player who, while very talented, does not possess outstanding speed. On the plus side, you don’t need outstanding speed to be a great red zone threat, and Colston is clearly head coach Sean Payton’s preferred option in that area of the field, although talented second-year tight end Jimmy Graham could poach some of that work. Despite the injury history, you can comfortably use Colston as your WR2, but be wary of having him as your top wide receiver.
WR Robert Meachem
Meachem is arguably the most gifted of the Saints wide receivers, but he remains an enigma to both the coaching staff and his fantasy owners. Coming off a solid second half of the 2009 season, where he caught 37 passes for 524 yards and seven touchdowns over the final nine games of the season, Meachem was expected to become a great compliment to Marques Colston in the Saints’ starting lineup. However, an ankle injury and the inconsistency that has plagued him for his entire career were the defining issues of his season, as he caught just 44 passes for 638 yards and five touchdowns. Entering his fifth year in the league, Meachem remains a player capable of breaking out, but at this point that’s hardly likely. Draft him as a backup and hope he surprises.
WR Lance Moore
After several years of yanking Moore in and out of the lineup, the Saints finally seem committed to him, signing him to a long-term contract extension this offseason. Despite having modest speed and being on the small side, Moore was productive when called upon, often subbing in for Reggie Bush when he was out with an injury. Moore burst onto the scene in 2008, catching 79 passes for 928 yards and ten touchdowns, before becoming a non-factor in 2009. In 2010, he bounced back with 66 receptions for 763 yards and eight touchdowns. Clearly, Moore’s career has had its ups and downs, but he figures to get consistent work in 2011. Marques Colston is coming off another knee surgery, Devery Henderson is best suited as a deep threat, and Robert Meachem has never been able to fulfill his potential. That leaves the steady Moore often picking up the pieces. Consider him a solid fantasy backup in 2011, but one who will become starter worthy if injuries strike the Saints’ other receivers.
WR Devery Henderson
Despite his blazing speed, Henderson has caught just nine touchdown passes over the past four seasons, even though he has played 16 games in every one of those years. He doesn’t catch a lot of passes either, with a career-high 51 in 2009 while never topping 34 in any other season. He also doesn’t like going over the middle, so he’s not going to take a crossing pattern to the house. With Lance Moore having signed a long-term contract extension, there’s a good chance that Henderson will be fourth on the depth chart in 2011. The Saints are tight against the cap, so it won’t be a surprise if they decide against paying $2.25 million to a player so low on the depth chart. Henderson is recommended only in the deepest of leagues.
TE Jimmy Graham
With Jeremy Shockey having been released and David Thomas clearly suited to a backup role, the path has been cleared for Graham to assume the starting tight end spot in 2011. The Saints used a third-round pick last season to acquire the raw yet talented Graham, but he rarely saw the field early in his rookie year. However, he got more use beginning at midseason and quickly developed into another weapon in the Saints’ high-powered offense, particularly as an option in the red zone. By season’s end, Graham had caught 31 passes for 456 yards and five touchdowns, with four of those scores coming in his final three games. He has good size and outstanding speed for a tight end, which gives him a high ceiling. Look for him to finish the 2011 season as a lower-tier TE1.
TE David Thomas
Thomas gets the job done when he gets an opportunity, but the Saints have determined that he fits them best as a backup. He played behind Jeremy Shockey for a number of years and now sits behind talented second-year player Jimmy Graham. He isn’t worth drafting in redraft leagues, but he gets a mention here because he figures to produce if Graham goes down.
By: Mike Krueger — August 11, 2011 @ 11:03 am
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/11
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
- Julius Thomas (#38) enters the rankings as he continues to impress in Denver’s camp. Daniel Fells (#36) is currently the starter.
By: Mike Krueger — August 10, 2011 @ 2:08 am
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/9
Running Backs
- Mikel Leshoure dropped from the list due to Achilles injury. Tough break for the rookie.
- Jahvid Best (+5) moves up but not as much as you might think. Can’t envision the Lions giving him more than 220 carries this year.
- Ricky Williams (+27) improves his fantasy stock after landing in Baltimore to back up Ray Rice.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 1:29 am
QB Josh Freeman
 The fantasy world seems to be banking on Matt Ryan as the next stud quarterback, but the smart money is riding on the Buccaneers’ Josh Freeman. While Ryan’s Falcons may have better overall talent at the skill positions, Freeman’s Bucs use a more pass-based offense and Freeman is a far more capable rusher. He made huge strides in his second season in the league, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. In addition, he finished second to Michael Vick in rushing yards for quarterbacks with 364, but he inexplicably failed to find the end zone. Expect even more improvement in 2011, and if you’re still not convinced of Freeman’s fantasy potential, consider that he has stayed healthy (25 consecutive starts) and is a remarkably consistent fantasy producer for such a young player (only one sub-14-point game in 2010). Don’t be late to the Freeman parade. This guy’s going to be value on draft day—bank on it.
RB LeGarrette Blount
Undrafted and then cast aside by the Tennessee Titans, Blount signed with Tampa Bay and became a revelation at running back partway through the 2010 season. He started out as Cadillac Williams’ backup, ascended to the starter’s role, and made teams regret passing on him as he gained 977 rushing yards and scored five touchdowns over the final 11 games of the season. Blount’s checkered past scared teams away from drafting him, but he displayed excellent athleticism for a 250-pound runner, as he had a number of highlight reel runs. He is getting a lot of love in the fantasy world, but there are some red flags. His maturity level is one of them, as is the fact that many running backs with fresh legs look good over the latter part of a season. In addition, he contributes almost nothing to the passing game, leaving the field in those situations. Despite earning significant playing time, he caught just five passes last season. There’s a lot to like about Blount, but he’s not a player you want to reach for—and certainly not a good option in PPR leagues.
RB Kregg Lumpkin
With the departure of Cadillac Williams to the Rams, there is a significant void at the backup running back spot behind LeGarrette Blount. Even though Lumpkin has done little during his time in Green Bay and Tampa Bay, the Bucs like his hard-running, one-cut style. When your lead back has the checkered history that Blount has and your team is on the verge of making a playoff run, a proven backup is generally in order, and unfortunately Lumpkin doesn’t fit the bill. He might be Blount’s backup at the moment, but that moment doesn’t seem to be a lasting one.
RB Earnest Graham
While Graham is campaigning to be LeGarrette Blount’s backup and has been productive in the past when given a steady dose of playing time, the Bucs seem to have cast him in the lead fullback/emergency backup role. Look no further than the miniscule 64 touches they have given him over the past two years combined. If your league drafts early and you’re looking to grab Blount’s handcuff, don’t bank on Graham’s nabbing that role.
WR Mike Williams
Williams overcame the baggage he accumulated in college to have an outstanding rookie season in Tampa. He dropped to the fourth round of last year’s rookie draft as teams cast a wary eye on his problems at Syracuse. The Bucs took a chance on him, however, and he was easily the most productive rookie receiver in 2010. Williams quickly ascended to the top wide receiver role in Tampa, catching 65 passes for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns. That production was good enough to finish as the 11th-ranked fantasy wide receiver. Williams may have his skeptics, but he figures to remain highly productive if he can stay out of trouble. He has solid size at 6’1” and 220 pounds to go along with good hands, excellent speed, and the ability to adjust in the air for the ball. Throw in the fact that he’s the top wideout on an up-and-coming Bucs offense, and Williams makes for an outstanding prospect in dynasty leagues. While another 11-touchdown season may not be in the cards, he figures to top 1,000 yards and ranks as a mid-tier WR2 with upside in 2011.
WR Arrelious Benn
Benn enters this year coming off a disappointing rookie season that was cut short when he suffered a torn ACL in Week 16. The Bucs’ second-round pick last season struggled for most of the year as he watched fellow rookie Mike Williams emerge as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. Reports indicate that Benn’s rehabilitation is ahead of schedule and that he is the favorite to start opposite Williams. While that bodes for well for his fantasy prospects, the bottom line is that most players struggle in the year following an ACL injury, particularly when the injury occurs late in the season. In addition, he is now clearly a distant fourth in the team’s pecking order in terms of getting touches, behind Williams, tight end Kellen Winslow, and running back LeGarrette Blount. Benn makes for a decent dynasty prospect but is waiver wire material in redraft leagues.
WR Sammie Stroughter
Stroughter played reasonably well as a rookie in 2009, only to watch the Bucs use their 2010 second- and fourth-round picks on wide receivers Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams. That should have told us all we need to know about Stroughter. If your team doesn’t think you’re good enough, your fantasy prospects can’t be all that great. He won a spot in the starting lineup last season as Benn struggled out of the gate, but he just as quickly lost it. Stroughter is destined to be a slot receiver, he’s been injured at the conclusion of each of his years in the league, he’s not likely to get many looks, and there’s no reason to have him on your fantasy roster.
TE Kellen Winslow
On the plus side, Winslow has stayed healthy for the past two years, playing 16 games each season. While he is a productive tight end when healthy, the odds of him fulfilling his immense potential after seven seasons in the league are remote. He enters 2011 coming off a solid yet unspectacular 2010 campaign where he caught 66 passes for 730 yards and five touchdowns. Winslow’s fantasy prospects are brighter since he’ll be playing in an improved Tampa Bay offense, but he remains a bit of an enigma in the red zone despite his size and athleticism, as he’s failed to top five touchdown passes in any season. With a plethora of mid-tier tight ends available, there is definitely no reason to reach for Winslow.
By: Mike Krueger — August 8, 2011 @ 12:25 pm
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/8
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
- Dwayne Bowe (-2) slides a couple spots. More weapons this season in the Chiefs passing game.
- Johnny Knox (-3) is losing reps to Roy Williams (+20) in practice. Why doesn’t Martz play them at different positions?
- Derrick Mason (-30) signing is basically Plaxico (-2) insurance. Mason goes from a starter to option #3.
- Malcom Floyd (+12) resigns in SD and returns to a starting role.
- Michael Crabtree (-3) can’t stay healthy and Braylon Edwards’ (+3) arrival is an ominous sign.
Tight Ends
- Flip-flopped Rob Gronkowski (+6) and Aaron Hernandez (-6). It’s too bad these two have to share targets.
- Jared Cook (+10) becomes Hasselbecks pass-receiving option now that Bo Scaife (-4) has moved on.
- Travis Beckum (+21) takes a big leap as he becomes the starting tight end now that Kevin Boss (-5) has moved on to Oakland.
- Ed Dickson (-3) may be the starter but it appears the Ravens like Dennis Pitta (+7) enough that he will share in the pass-receiving responsibilities.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 2:51 am
QB Cam Newton
 As former San Francisco head coach and renowned offensive guru Bill Walsh liked to opine, quarterbacks that can run are nice, but ones that can pass are better. With Newton coming from a simplistic offense at Auburn, the Panthers are going to have to turn him from a thrower into a passer who is capable of reading defenses. That’s going to take some time. While Newton has special athletic gifts, he is far from a polished product and is not expected to contribute much in his rookie season. Newton may emerge as the starting quarterback early in 2011, but that will be due more to the Panthers’ lack of options at the position than to Newton’s readiness to lead a pro-style offense. If Newton is under center, look for the Panthers to protect him with a run-based offense featuring short passes and rollouts that give him the option of running. That recipe won’t result in much fantasy production. Frankly speaking, his dynasty prospects beyond this season can’t be considered great either, given the poor accuracy he displayed in college.
QB Derek Anderson
With Jimmy Clausen struggling early in training camp and the Panthers not expecting Cam Newton to be ready by opening day, they signed Anderson. He was a bust last year in Arizona despite being surrounded by some proven receiving talent. So how is he going to produce in Carolina with far less receiving talent? He’s not. And he’s not going to keep the starting gig for too long, assuming he beats out Clausen to start with.
QB Jimmy Clausen
Clausen was so bad last year that the Panthers gave up on him just one season after using a 2010 second-round pick to acquire him. He was asked to throw short and avoid turnovers, yet he completed just 52.5 percent of his passes with only three touchdowns and nine interceptions. In his ten starts, he averaged 145 passing yards a game even though the Panthers were regularly playing from behind. Despite all that, Clausen was expected to open the 2011 season as Carolina’s starter and keep the job warm until Cam Newton, the first overall selection in the 2011 draft, was ready. But Clausen was so bad that the Panthers signed Derek Anderson, who apparently will start on opening day. And we all know that Anderson’s ridiculously poor 2010 campaign basically torpedoed the Cardinals’ playoff chances. Don’t draft Clausen, and if you own him in dynasty formats, it’s time to move on.
RB DeAngelo Williams
As the most sought after free agent running back on the market, there was strong speculation that Williams would leave Carolina for greener pastures. However, he reportedly spurned offers from the Dolphins and Broncos, choosing instead to return to the Panthers despite the franchise being in a rebuilding mode. He is coming off a disappointing, injury-plagued season during which he rushed for 361 yards, had 61 receiving yards, and scored just a single touchdown, all career lows. In 2011, Williams will once again split time with Jonathan Stewart, and while committee approaches often result in two running backs being productive (such as what occurred in 2008 in Carolina), it’s rare for that to happen in one of the league’s worst offenses. And that is likely in store for the Panthers this coming season. Both Carolina running backs have had a difficult time remaining healthy, and Williams has now missed 13 games over the past two seasons. It’s also worth noting that Mike Goodson played well in Williams’ absence and would likely get significant playing time if Williams or Stewart went down. Don’t expect Williams to return to his 2008 glory. He’s an RB3 with upside if Stewart goes down, but Goodson’s presence limits that upside.
RB Jonathan Stewart
Despite having a lackluster 2010 season in Carolina, Stewart was expected to ascend to the lead back role with DeAngelo Williams entering free agency. The only problem is that Williams re-upped with the Panthers, relegating Stewart to a timeshare role once again. In hindsight, Stewart has only himself to blame since he struggled mightily for the first half of 2010, failing to top 43 yards in any of the first eight games and gaining just 208 yards over that stretch on a paltry 3.0 yards per carry. Hardly lead back production, which the Panthers surely took note of. Worse yet, with Williams and Stewart out of the lineup with injuries in Weeks 10 and 11, third-string running back Mike Goodson stepped into the fray, gaining 264 total yards in those games. Stewart returned to the lineup in Week 12 and finished the season strong, gaining 580 total yards and a touchdown over the next six games. For 2011, Stewart enters the season as no better than an RB4, and his only prospect for a breakout season would come if he were traded prior to opening day.
RB Mike Goodson
With both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart injured in Weeks 10 and 11 last year, Goodson shined in his two starts, the first significant playing time of his career. He gained a surprising 264 total yards in games against the Bucs and Ravens and had a nice five-game stretch during which he averaged a healthy 13.5 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately—and unjustifiably—the Panthers handed the starting job back to the disappointing Stewart, who went on to finish the season strongly. With both Williams and Stewart back for 2011, Goodson will once again be relegated to just a handful of touches per game, if that. His fantasy prospects hinge on either a trade to a new team or the Panthers’ deciding to move Stewart. Goodson is a deep sleeper for dynasty leagues but not recommended in redraft formats.
WR Steve Smith
Offseason speculation had Smith being traded to a contender as the Panthers begin the rebuilding process with rookie quarterback Cam Newton. That didn’t happen—whether because of the Panthers’ decision to keep Smith to help ease Newton’s transition to the NFL or because the market for Smith’s services never heating up, courtesy of his poor outing in 2010. Accumulating only 554 yards and two touchdowns on 46 receptions, the 32-year old suffered through his worst season (other than his injury-shortened 2004 campaign) since his rookie season in 2001. The issue now is whether he can bounce back in 2011—but what has changed in Carolina to help make that happen? He’s a year older, the quarterback situation figures to improve only marginally, and the team’s duo of running backs may actually remain healthy for 16 games. Smith ranks as a backup fantasy wideout for this season, but it’s almost assured that somebody will draft him as a starter. Make sure it’s now you.
WR David Gettis
The Panthers used a sixth-round pick in the 2010 draft to acquire Gettis and he put up solid production as a rookie, gaining 508 yards and three touchdowns on 37 receptions. A closer look reveals, however, that most of his production came in two games against the 49ers and Ravens, where he caught 10 passes for 217 yards and all three of his touchdowns. This year he will battle fellow second-year receiver Bandon LaFell for the opportunity to start opposite Steve Smith. Unfortunately, the Panthers will likely suffer from poor quarterback play once again, and the team has added talented pass-catching tight end Greg Olsen, who figures to get plenty of targets. Gettis is worth taking a flyer on in larger leagues, but that’s about it.
WR Brandon LaFell
LaFell was expected to start as a rookie last season, but the third-round pick struggled mightily in that role, losing the job to fellow rookie David Gettis. Of his 23 targets over the first four games, LaFell caught just five for 72 yards. That was all the Panthers needed to see, and LaFell quickly found his way to the bench. He finished the season with only 38 receptions for 468 yards and a touchdown. LaFell has good size and better-than-average speed but doesn’t figure to produce much even if he beats out Gettis for a starting spot. You can do better.
WR Legedu Naanee
Naanee showed big-play potential out of the gates last season, accumulating 110 receiving yards in his first game, which included a 59-yard touchdown reception. Plagued by injury and inconsistency, however, he mustered just 261 yards the rest of the way. With 2010 rookies David Gettis and Brandon LaFell showing signs of promise, Naanee will likely have to settle for fourth on the Panthers’ wide receiver depth chart.
TE Greg Olsen
Entering 2010, the line of thinking on Olsen was that he would suffer with the addition of Mike Martz as the Bears’ offensive coordinator. While Martz and the Bears told anyone who would listen that Olsen would be an integral part of the offense, history suggested otherwise, with no tight end ever topping 380 receiving yards in a Martz offense. Right on cue, Olsen’s targets plummeted from a career-high 108 in 2009 to just 69 last season. His production dropped from 60 receptions for 612 yards and eight touchdowns to 41 receptions for 404 yards and five touchdowns. Olsen gets a new lease on life with his trade to Carolina, but he goes from a nominal role in Chicago to a team that had the worst passing attack in the league in 2010. And they will challenge for that dubious distinction once again this season. He is waiver wire material for 2011.
TE Jeremy Shockey
It’s all about opportunity in fantasy football, and Shockey’s move from the powerful Saints offense to a weak Panthers passing game appeared to actually improve his fantasy stock, since he was going to lose his starting job to talented youngster Jimmy Graham anyway. Oops. Then the Panthers acquired Greg Olsen, and Shockey now figures to be a glorified blocker in Carolina in 2011.
By: Dave Stringer — August 7, 2011 @ 11:54 am
QB Matt Ryan
Is this the year Ryan realizes his potential and becomes the top-notch starting quarterback many anticipated when he was taken with the third overall pick in 2008? Well, top-notch fantasy starting quarterback, I should say. As a starting NFL quarterback, Ryan has been nothing short of magnificent, turning the moribund Falcons into a perennial winner during his three-year stay in Atlanta, which included last year’s conference-leading 13-3 record. As a fantasy starter, he’s left something to be desired, however, with the Falcons’ conservative approach holding him back. At the 2011 draft, the team traded multiple picks to move up to the sixth spot so they could grab wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones should provide the Falcons with a nice compliment to Roddy White after the underperforming Michael Jenkins was shipped out. That bodes well for Ryan, as does the return of tight end Tony Gonzalez and the situation at running back—where the team has lost depth with the departure of Jerious Norwood. The question is whether Ryan and the Falcons will change their stripes. Head coach Mike Smith prefers a conservative offensive game plan, and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey doesn’t abandon the run quickly. In addition, Ryan hasn’t taken many risks downfield. Ryan ranks as a top-quality QB2 with upside if the chains come off, but that isn’t as likely as some believe.
RB Michael Turner
The fantasy shine has come off Turner a little bit since his outstanding first season as a Falcon in 2008, when he rushed for 1,699 yards and scored 17 touchdowns. That was quarterback Matt Ryan’s rookie year, and the team chose to lean heavily on Turner and the running game. Over the past two seasons, Turner has been good, averaging 83 rushing yards and 0.81 touchdowns per game. Last season, he finished as the ninth-ranked fantasy running back with 1,371 rushing yards and had his third consecutive season with double-digit touchdowns (12). The concerns with Turner are the heavy workload he has endured as a Falcon (averaging nearly 21 carries per game) and the team’s addition of wide receiver Julio Jones. While Jones is the shiny new toy, Turner is the proven producer, and the Falcons love to run. With Jason Snelling, Gartrell Johnson, and scatback Jacquizz Rodgers (the team’s fifth-round pick) behind Turner, look for him to once again top the 20-carry-per-game mark. Unfortunately, the heyday of 2008 isn’t likely to return, and Turner’s poor receiving skills limit him somewhat. Consider him a solid, low-end RB1 in 2011, and move him down a couple of notches in PPR leagues.
RB Jason Snelling
After testing the free agent waters and getting a lukewarm response from St. Louis, Kansas City, and the New York Giants, Snelling has returned home, signing a one-year contract to be Michael Turner’s backup. Snelling is a decent inside runner and possess better receiving skills than Turner but he is destined to be handcuff material unless injury provides him an opportunity.
RB Jacquizz Rodgers
I’m going to be honest, I don’t like scatbacks. Never have, never will. For fantasy purposes, that is. But what’s not to like about watching a Darren Sproles scoot by frustrated, burly defenders on his way to the house? Unfortunately, these guys are never trusted by their coaches to handle a big role in a team’s offense because of injury concerns. Rodgers is a sexy pick; he had some great production at Oregon State and he will likely make some highlight reels in the NFL. But he won’t make enough of them. He replaces Jerious Norwood as the team’s change-of-pace, third-down back, and Norwood’s production when he was healthy is Rodgers’ upside. Norwood’s best season saw him post 8.0 fantasy points per game. At best, Rodgers may emerge as a decent flex option in larger leagues.
WR Roddy White
You know what’s tough? Trying to find something interesting to write about the best fantasy producers, guys like Roddy White. I don’t need to convince you that White is a trustworthy pick and a great addition to your roster. You know that. You know that some rookie hotshot isn’t going to have a major impact on his targets. You know that tight end Tony Gonzalez really slowed down as the 2010 season wore on. You know that White led the league in targets in 2010 after finishing second in 2009. You know that he was the third-ranked fantasy wide receiver last season and that the two guys ahead of him (Brandon Lloyd and Dwayne Bowe) aren’t likely to repeat their performances. And you know that Michael Turner doesn’t have a proven backup on the roster, he can’t catch, and he has to come off the field at some point. What’s left to know? Barring injury—and White has never missed a game in his six-year career—he’s a lock to finish in the top five at wide receiver, and it will be no surprise if he finishes number one.
WR Julio Jones
With a hole opposite Roddy White, the Falcons gave up a bundle of 2011 and 2012 draft picks to move up to the sixth spot to select Jones. That tells you that they think he is good and that they need him. It might be assumed that, having given up so many picks, the Falcons are planning a big role for Jones this season, and that he shapes up as a solid fantasy wide receiver. Not so fast. The Falcons love to run, they have arguably the league’s best wide receiver in Roddy White, and tight end Tony Gonzalez remains a great option on short routes and as an outlet valve. In addition, Atlanta is coming off a 14-2 season and aren’t very likely to be playing from behind much in 2011. And we haven’t even gotten to the “rookie wide receivers rarely produce” angle. You need opportunity to rack up fantasy points, and Jones isn’t likely to get much of one. While he looks like Tarzan and may play like Tarzan one day, it won’t be in 2011. Consider him a great addition to your dynasty league roster, but he’s worth nothing more than a late-round pick in redraft leagues.
WR Harry Douglas
Douglas is expected to open the season as the team’s slot receiver, but he is coming off a disappointing 2010 season where he caught just 22 passes for 294 yards and a touchdown. The really disappointing stat, however, was that he caught a woeful 41.5 percent of his targets despite being targeted mainly on short and intermediate routes. Look for him to have a similar or reduced role in 2011, provided he holds on to his roster spot.
 The writing is on the wall. TE Tony Gonzalez
Gonzalez has been a dynamic tight end throughout his career and is clearly headed to the Hall of Fame, but the writing on the wall can’t be ignored. He is in serious decline. Sure, he caught 70 passes for 656 yards and six touchdowns last season, but if you watched the Falcons play, it was obvious he’s no longer the player he once was. His reception and yardage totals were the lowest since his second season in the league (14 years ago), his yard per reception was the lowest of his career, and his targets were his lowest since 2006. Of the 24 tight ends in the league with 40 or more receptions, Gonzalez had the third-lowest yards per reception. He’s a backup, folks, and probably a low-end one at that.
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