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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Mike Krueger — August 1, 2011 @ 2:22 pm
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/1
Quarterbacks
- Kevin Kolb (#20) comes to ARI as a QB2 with upside.
- Kyle Orton (-7) slides as starting spots across the league dwindle and rumored MIA deal fizzles.
- Vince Young (+15) lands in a good situation but has little fantasy value barring a Vick injury.
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
- Todd Heap (+3) gets a slight boost. Could be second-leading receiver in Arizona.
- Ed Dickson (+15) gets a crack at the starting job in Baltimore.
- Kellen Davis (+14) gets a crack at the starting job in Chicago but still fantasy irrelevant.
- Greg Olsen (-6) will share targets with Jeremy Shockey in Carolina.
Kickers
By: Dave Stringer — @ 3:14 am
With a youth movement under way and their star wide receiver no longer in their plans, the Cincinnati Bengals have traded Chad Ochocinco to New England. Reports indicate the Bengals will receive the Patriots’ fifth-round draft pick in 2012 and their sixth-round pick in 2013.
 Me? No longer the imposing deep threat? The enigmatic Ochocinco has spent the last few seasons talking his way out of Cincinnati. With the team expected to start rookie quarterback Andy Dalton and having used their fourth pick in the draft on wide receiver A.J. Green, Ochocinco finally got his wish.
In New England, he will join a receiving unit that has lacked a proven deep threat since Randy Moss was traded early in the 2010 season. He will start opposite Deion Branch with Wes Welker playing out of the slot.
Ochocinco is coming off a disappointing 2010, having caught just 67 passes for 831 yards and four touchdowns during a season in which Terrell Owens overtook him as the team’s lead receiver.
Fantasy Impact
In Cincinnati, Ochocinco would have been the lead receiver on a team that will likely start a rookie quarterback and would have been looking to reduce the receiver’s role as they underwent a youth movement.
Going to New England, Ochocinco joins one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses led by arguably the league’s top quarterback in Tom Brady, so this trade increases his 2011 fantasy prospects.
However, expecting him to return as the fantasy stud he was a few years ago is ill-advised.
New England’s offense features a pair of solid, young pass-receiving tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez; Welker remains the league’s top slot receiver; and Branch was a good, if inconsistent, performer last season after coming over from the Seahawks.
In addition, Ochocinco is approaching 34, he has failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards in two of the last three seasons, and he is no longer the imposing deep threat he was for most of his career.
He was a WR5 in Cincinnati, and while the move to New England should increase his production, he still ranks no better than a low-end WR3 with the Patriots.
The biggest fantasy losers in this deal are Dalton and Branch. Dalton loses his top receiver while Branch will likely see his targets reduced. Branch was rated as a WR3 before the trade but drops to an upper-tier WR4.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 2:54 am
 While the quick thought is to write off the aging McNabb’s fantasy prospects for 2011 after a disastrous season last year in Washington, there is hope for a rebound this year in Minnesota. He was ill-suited for Mike Shanahan’s offense and is a better fit in Bill Musgrave’s version of the West Coast offense. With the team grooming rookie first-round pick Christian Ponder, McNabb will likely start in Week 1 and has a chance to hold on to the starter’s role as long as the Vikings remain in playoff contention. He will be 34 on opening day, and several quarterbacks have remained productive into their late thirties. In Minnesota, the wide receiver depth chart took a hit with the loss of Sidney Rice, but Percy Harvin may be ready to ascend to the No. 1 receiver role. There is also talent at tight end and in the running game. Add it all up and McNabb looks like a lower-tier QB2 with some risk that he may not be starting during the fantasy playoffs.
With Brett Favre likely to stay retired this time, Tarvaris Jackson a free agent, and Joe Webb the only quarterback on the roster, the Vikings used their first-round pick to acquire Ponder, and it looked as though he would open the season as the starter. The Donovan McNabb trade all but ended that scenario. Nonetheless, the rookie walks into a great opportunity and could be starting by midseason if the Vikings struggle under McNabb. If that happens, however, Ponder will face many obstacles in 2011. Top wide receiver Sidney Rice left as a free agent, and Bernard Berrian is coming off a poor season and is likely to be released unless he accepts a salary reduction. Because of the league’s labor strife, Ponder was also robbed of valuable practice time. While he was productive in college at Florida State, he lacks a big arm and was injury-prone during his time there. But the Seminoles threw it plenty, and that works in Ponder’s favor. He is waiver wire material in redraft formats but is a mid-tier prospect in dynasty leagues.
Webb wasn’t horrible replacing Brett Favre in 2010, but with the lockout in place and free agency delayed, the Vikings were pushed into choosing Christian Ponder in the first round of the draft. And if that didn’t torpedo Webb’s short- and long-term prospects, as well as his fantasy value for the 2011 season, then the Donovan McNabb trade certainly did.
There is only one running back who has finished with a top-three fantasy ranking over the past four seasons, and that player is Adrian Peterson. While you could make the argument that there are better all-around backs in the league, there is little doubt that Peterson is the best pure runner in the NFL. In just four years, he has rushed for 5,785 yards and 52 touchdowns and caught 119 passes for another 1,170 yards and two more touchdowns. Let’s put it in perspective. Peterson averages 13.5 touchdowns per season, which would qualify as a career year for most running backs and is 3.5 more than Steven Jackson has scored over the last two years combined—and Jackson is regularly mentioned as a lower-tier RB1. Peterson’s is money in the bank and a near-certain bet to remain highly productive in 2011. The issue of having a new quarterback in the Vikings’ system drops AP down a notch, but he remains a lock to finish in the top five if he avoids the injury bug.
With the league’s top pure runner ahead of him, Gerhart stands little to no chance of carving out a meaningful role in Minnesota. To make things worse, Adrian Peterson is a more-than-capable short-yardage runner, and Gerhart isn’t a proven receiving threat. That limits his upside and makes him little more than a handcuff for 2011 and beyond, barring a catastrophic injury to Peterson. Therefore, the issue becomes whether Gerhart would produce if given an opportunity. While he looked tentative at times as a rookie, he was solid in his lone start in Week 15 against a stingy Bears defense, gaining a respectable 95 yards on 19 touches. There you have it—that’s all you need to know about Gerhart.
Let’s be honest. As a football fan, it’s not hard to like Percy Harvin. He’s a jack-of-all-trades who is capable of making plays as a rusher, receiver, and returner. The problem is that as a fantasy owner, you need to remove your personal feelings for a player to determine his true value. The book on Harvin coming out of Florida as a first-round pick was that he was a bit of a malcontent who would get plenty of touches as a running back and as a receiver while also contributing in the return game. However, it hasn’t really materialized that way. His role as a kick returner takes him out of the base offense for a few snaps each game. And he has taken a handoff only 33 times in his first two years. With Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart around, don’t expect much to change in 2011. The big positive for Harvin is Sidney Rice’s decision to leave for Seattle, which makes Harvin the de facto No. 1 wide receiver in Minnesota. While his migraine issues could flare up at any time, the addition of Donovan McNabb at quarterback and Rice’s departure increase the likelihood of Harvin busting out in his third year in the league. He looks like a lower-tier WR2 with significant upside.
With Sidney Rice out with a hip injury, Berrian had a chance to re-join the starting lineup and give the Vikings a reason to pay him the $3.9-million salary he is due for the 2011 season. Yeah, that didn’t happen. The Vikings couldn’t have been impressed with his 28-reception, 247-yard, zero-touchdown season, and his fantasy owners certainly weren’t either. Barring a salary reduction, he won’t be back in Minnesota next season, and there’s a decent chance the Vikings won’t even bother re-signing him—he averaged a paltry 8.8 yards per reception last season and wasn’t much better in 2009 with 11.2 yards per catch. When your deep threat becomes a bigger threat to your team’s salary cap than to opposing defenders, you move on. You should too. Berrian is waiver wire material at best.
Last year I told you that Shiancoe’s overreliance on touchdowns made him an inconsistent contributor at tight end and increased his risk factor. Sure enough, he caught just two touchdowns in 2010 after grabbing 11 in 2009 and eight in 2008. He dropped to 24th among tight ends, and with rookie second-round pick Kyle Rudolph on board, the odds of Shiancoe returning to his status as a fantasy starter are not great. The addition of McNabb does help his case a bit, however. Move him up to TE2 status if he relegates Rudolph to a clear backup status. Otherwise, you can do better.
Rudolph was widely regarded as the premier tight end in this year’s rookie draft, and with Visanthe Shiancoe entering the final year of his contract, the Vikings grabbed Rudolph in the second round. Shiancoe has never been a feared receiver and is a poor fit for new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave’s West Coast offense. Nonetheless, Rudolph isn’t likely to beat out Shiancoe by Week 1, particularly since he hasn’t had an offseason to learn the team’s playbook. Keep an eye on him as potential bye-week filler off the waiver wire in redraft leagues, and consider him the top tight end prospect in dynasty league rookie drafts.
By: Dave Stringer — July 29, 2011 @ 2:31 pm
After failing to reach an agreement on a long-term extension in Seattle, Matt Hasselbeck has landed in Tennessee with the Titans.
 Hassebleck to Tennessee - Music to fantasy owner's ears? Reports indicate that Tennessee was willing to give Hasselbeck a lengthier contract than Seattle was, and he is expected to open the season as the Titans’ starter.
With rookie first-round pick Jake Locker previously atop the depth chart because of Kerry Collins‘ retirement, the Titans were interested in acquiring a veteran to help ease Locker’s transition into the NFL. Hasselbeck’s solid character and experience make him a perfect fit for that role.
In Seattle, Hasselbeck had become redundant after the team came to terms with former Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson.
Fantasy Impact
Going from the unemployment line to starting in an offense with Chris Johnson certainly improves your chance of success, so the move is positive from Hasselbeck’s perspective.
That’s not to say you should plan on owning him in 2011.
While the Titans’ solid offensive line should keep him upright more than he was in Seattle, it is hard to ignore that he suffered through his worst year as a starter last season. He is also 36 years old and is coming to a team with major question marks at tight end and wide receiver. Avoid Hasselbeck in 2011.
However, Johnson’s value gets a slight uptick since Hasselbeck will help take some of the pressure off the rushing game.
The Titans wide receivers and tight ends also see an increase in their fantasy value. Of those players, only Kenny Britt has the potential to be a fantasy starter, and his off-the-field troubles make him a huge risk.
Even with Hasselbeck on board, the only Titan offensive player you want to own is Johnson.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 1:48 pm
 In his three years as Green Bay’s starting quarterback, Rodgers has finished second, first, and again second in fantasy points at his position, missing out on repeating as the top-rated passer in 2010 because of a one-and-a-half game absence due to a concussion suffered in Week 14 against Detroit. Despite having starting running back Ryan Grant for just one game, starting tight end Jermichael Finley for only five games, and playing behind an offensive line that struggled in pass protection early last season, Rodgers remained highly productive in leading the Packers to a Super Bowl championship. With the offensive line likely to improve in 2011 and with the return of Grant and Finley as well as a deep, talented group of wide receivers, Rodgers has an opportunity to become the top-rated fantasy passer once again. Deep threat Greg Jennings remains the most underrated wide receiver in the league, and while Donald Driver’s declining skills seem likely to land him in a backup role (or a ceremonial starting position with reduced playing time), Jordy Nelson proved in the playoffs that he is ready to take over Driver’s production. James Jones is a free agent who may not return, but the Packers added another talented receiver in Randall Cobb in the second round of the draft. Since he’s produced both with and without injuries to the team’s other skill position players, Rodgers is as close to a sure thing as there is at fantasy quarterback and is worthy of being taken in the first round in redraft leagues.
More than ever, the world seems to want the sexy new thing, but when it comes to the Packers backfield, it may make more sense to love the boring old guy, if you consider a 28-year-old with just 790 career rushes “old.” With second-year player James Starks breathing life into the Packers’ moribund rushing attack during the playoffs, third-round pick Alex Green in tow, and Grant having suffered a season-ending Week 1 injury last season, the fantasy world is down on Grant’s prospects for the coming season, perhaps unreasonably so. While he is a poor pass catcher and will never be mentioned as one of the more talented running backs in the league, Grant rushed for nearly 3,400 yards and 23 touchdowns during a 38-game stretch from 2007 to 2009. The risk with Grant is that he is entering the final year of his contract and could end up splitting time with Starks as the Packers build for the future. Or, perhaps more likely, Grant will remain Green Bay’s dominant running back as he becomes motivated by the thought of a new contract, and the Packers will go with their most productive running back in an attempt to return to the Super Bowl. There’s nothing wrong with gambling on Grant in 2011.
After watching Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn make a futile attempt to give the team a decent rushing attack during the regular season, the Packers turned to rookie sixth-round pick James Starks in the playoffs. Starks was hardly dominant, but he did upgrade the team’s production at the position, gaining 315 rushing yards and four touchdowns over the Packers’ four-game playoff run. With Jackson on his way to Cleveland, Starks will battle incumbent starter Ryan Grant to be the lead back. While Starks was impressive during the playoffs, Grant has a history of solid production, gaining 3,412 rushing yards and scoring 23 touchdowns from 2007 through 2009 despite barely playing for the first half of 2007. That history suggests Starks will enter 2011 in a backup role. However, with Grant entering the final year of his contract—and lacking solid receiving skills in a pass-happy Packers offense—look for a platoon role for Starks with an outside chance of his winning the job outright. He is a great option as the potential Green Bay starter in 2012.
With Ryan Grant entering the final year of his contract and Brandon Jackson in Cleveland, the Packers picked Green in the third round to supplement the running game. Playing in the dynamic Packers offense and being a reasonably high draft selection makes Green an obvious candidate for dynasty leagues, but his fantasy prospects for 2011 look dim. Grant has played well as a starter, and James Starks was impressive during the team’s playoff run. That makes it unlikely that Green will see much playing time as a rookie, barring injury to Grant or Starks. He’s waiver wire material entering 2011.
You pick the narrative. 1.) Jennings was headed for bust status last year as the team chose to feature tight end Jermichael Finley—with only Finley’s season-ending Week 5 injury saving Jennings from WR3 status. 2.) The Packers offensive line was so porous for the first part of the year that head coach Mike McCarthy was forced to feature Finley, but Jennings’ true value became apparent once the O-line shaped up and Finley was injured. Let’s go with the latter. Despite opening the season with just 36 fantasy points (183 receiving yards, three touchdowns) over the first five weeks, Jennings rebounded in a big way over the balance of the season, averaging 14.7 fantasy points over game and finishing as the fourth-ranked fantasy wide receiver. That’s an impressive turnaround. To sum it up, Jennings is entering his sixth year in the league, he’s the undisputed No. 1 wide receiver on what is arguably the most explosive offense in the league, and he’s finished fourth, 20th, fourth, and 12th over the past four years in the fantasy wide receiver rankings. Barring injuries, he is a mid-tier WR1 who could easily finish in the top three.
After an amazing run of seven 1000-yard seasons over the last eight years, the 36-year-old Driver saw his production plummet to just 51 receptions for 565 yards and four touchdowns in 2010. He did have an amazing 61-yard touchdown reception against the 49ers, but he is clearly on the downside of his career and seems unlikely to improve upon his 2010 numbers in the coming season. Driver ran more short patterns last year, but with tight end Jermichael Finley back from an injury that cost him 11 games last season, Driver will likely lose that work this season. Luckily for him, the Packers run plenty of three-, four-, and five-receiver sets, so he isn’t going to just drop off the face of the earth. That being said, he topped six fantasy points just four times last year, and only once over the final 12 games. Let somebody else take a gamble on Driver regaining his glory in 2011.
Jones isn’t big but he’s big enough. He doesn’t possess great speed but he’s fast enough. His routes aren’t always the right ones but he gets open regularly. Unfortunately, he always leaves the Packers coaches and his fantasy owners wanting more. After four years in the league, Jones is a free agent, and with a solid depth chart at wide receiver and having witnessed Jordy Nelson’s nice playoff run, Green Bay isn’t likely to overpay to retain him. While Jones also had a decent four-game playoff run, with 144 yards and a pair of touchdowns, Nelson appears to have developed into a more reliable option. Look for more of the same from Jones (500-600 yards, four or five touchdowns—good enough for WR5 status) if he returns to Green Bay. However, he’ll gain some upside if he moves to a different team in 2011.
With Donald Driver wearing down and James Jones a free agent, Nelson was shaping up as a solid sleeper option for 2011. That all changed with his superlative three-game playoff run in which he caught 21 passes for 286 yards and a pair of touchdowns, culminating in a nine-catch, 140-yard, one-touchdown performance in the Super Bowl. How’s that for getting noticed! While Driver is squawking about remaining a starter, there is little doubt that at 36 his usage will decline, and Jones seems likely to leave as a free agent. That equals opportunity, and Nelson showed in the playoffs that he has the ability to make the most of it. He ranks as a WR4 until there is more certainty regarding the futures of Driver and Jones, but move him up if circumstances warrant prior to start of the 2011 season.
Most receivers taken in the second round get an opportunity to produce in their rookie seasons, but that might not be the case for Cobb. The Packers possess perhaps the deepest depth chart at receiver in the league, and Cobb will enter the season behind four solid veterans if James Jones is re-signed. If that happens, Cobb figures to dress on game day only if he wins a job as a returner, which seems likely. He is a shifty player with very good but not outstanding speed. He’s not recommended for redraft leagues, but he definitely shapes up as a good prospect in dynasty formats.
This side of Antonio Gates, there isn’t a more feared pass-catching tight end in the league than Jermichael Finley. He possesses outstanding size, speed, and agility, and he is entering just his fourth year as a pro. The only problem is that he hasn’t played a lot after spending his rookie year figuring out the team’s offensive playbook, missing three games to injury in his second year when he was just getting rolling, and missing most of last year after he tore his meniscus in Week 5. On the plus side, the Packers featured him over the first four games of last season, targeting him 26 times. In those four games, he averaged nine fantasy points per game on 21 receptions for 301 yards and a score. With Finley, the upside is huge, but so is the injury risk, which precludes him from being in the top-tier at the position. Place him at the top of the second tier, but make sure you have a decent backup at the ready.
By: Doug Orth — @ 12:40 am
After attempting to plug in four different quarterbacks last season, the Arizona Cardinals looked north to find what they hope is answer to their quarterback problems. The question: is Kevin Kolb that answer?
 Kolb will have a very capable receiving corps at his disposal. On Thursday, Arizona sent former Pro Bowl cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2012 second-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for Kolb, hoping they filled the sizable void left behind by the retirement of Kurt Warner. In addition to shipping a 25-year-old defensive back to the Eagles one season removed from a Pro Bowl appearance, the Cardinals gave Philadelphia another second-rounder one year after it fleeced the Washington Redskins for one in the Donovan McNabb trade. To its credit, Arizona immediately stepped up with a five-year contract worth over $60 M.
Fantasy Impact
It was no secret that Arizona needed a quarterback in the worst way. In a league where a 60% completion rate is considered acceptable, the quartet of Derek Anderson, Richard Bartel, John Skelton and Max Hall combined to connect on just over 50% of their passes last season. By comparison, Kolb has a career 60.8% completion rate over parts of four seasons with the Eagles.
However, is Kolb worth the cost both in terms of his contract and the resources required to acquire his services? Despite his aforementioned accuracy, Kolb was 3-4 in his seven career starts for Philadelphia with a 10:13 TD-to-INT ratio. While one could say his opportunities to keep a starting job in NFL have been virtually non-existent, it is hard to defend anything less than a 1.5:1 TD-to-INT ratio throwing to the likes of DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy over the years with the Eagles.
Perhaps the stability of a new contract and the certainty of a starting role will help Kolb fulfill expectations. More than that, however, is the knowledge that he will have the opportunity to throw to one of the league’s elite receivers in Larry Fitzgerald. Along with rookie surprise Andre Roberts and Early Doucet, the Cardinals will have a very capable receiving corps on par with the one he grew accustomed to as an Eagle.
Fantasy owners would be wise to tread carefully with Kolb despite the presence of Fitzgerald. There is substantial reason to doubt Kolb with his mediocre track record – albeit in limited time – so viewing him as anything more than a high-upside QB in 12-team leagues is probably wishful thinking.
By: Mike Krueger — July 28, 2011 @ 3:54 pm
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 7/28
Quarterbacks
- Matt Hasselbeck (+7) up slightly. Better value for him early in the season; as long as TEN stays in the race.
- Donovan McNabb in Minnesota might be a good fit for the team but doesn’t get my fantasy juices flowing. No Sidney Rice means McNabb is QB2 at best.
- Bump for Tarvaris Jackson (+30) as for some reason the Seahawks want him to be their starting QB.
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Kickers
- John Kasay dropped from the Rankings. He will be released by Carolina who just agreed with Olindo Mare on a 5-year deal. Seattle is looking for a new kicker.
By: Doug Orth — @ 2:29 pm
Despite introducing the “Wildcat” into the public consciousness, the Miami Dolphins haven’t been regarded as one of the NFL’s most dynamic offenses lately. They are hoping that changes now that Reggie Bush will be frequenting South Beach.
With two player-acquisition brushstrokes, the Dolphins have moved on from their aging and injury-prone backfield of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown over the last several years. Miami moved up in April’s draft to select its new running game focal point in Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas and, on July 28, sent a late-round pick and safety Jonathon Amaya – a special teams standout – to the New Orleans Saints for Bush. Much as he did when he first arrived in New Orleans in 2006 for Deuce McAllister, Bush figures to serve as the explosive passing-complement to the 6-0, 230-pound Thomas.
 12-15 touches per game is exactly what Bush is looking for. Fantasy Impact
Bush’s relevancy in fantasy – which was already in question following the 2010 season – became even more clouded following the Saints’ addition of Alabama’s Mark Ingram in the first round in April to a backfield that already possessed Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. Because Bush was due $11.8 M this season with New Orleans, the Saints knew they had to address his contract one way or the other, be it via renegotiation or trade. Considering Bush still views himself as something much more than a complementary piece, a trade out of New Orleans became a likely option.
Make no mistake, Thomas is the present and the future in Miami’s backfield and is a good bet to push or exceed 250 touches this year, but this trade should allow Bush to be the 12-15 touch per game player he wants to be while also preserving the rookie as he gets introduced to the NFL. If Miami follows through on another trade for Denver’s Kyle Orton, then Bush should find himself in about as good of a situation as he could have hoped for this offseason.
Since he was moving toward irrelevance as a Saint, a trade to Miami represents a definite boon to Bush’s fantasy stock. The absence of Drew Brees and Sean Payton as his quarterback and play-caller, respectively, will hurt, but the promise of regular touches in a Dolphins’ offense that promises to be more aggressive under new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll should give Bush a chance to be a regular flex starter in fantasy, at least in PPR leagues.
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