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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — July 28, 2011 @ 10:14 am
Looking to bolster a wide receiver depth chart devoid of playmakers, the Seattle Seahawks landed Sidney Rice, the premier wide receiver available in free agency.
 Rice is reunited with offensive coordinator Darren Bevell. The acquisition of Rice immediately upgrades the Seahawks’ passing attack, providing their starting quarterback with a true No. 1 wide receiver, a role Mike Williams was ill-suited for. Who will be starting at quarterback for the Seahawks remains a major question mark, with Charlie Whitehurst and the recently signed Tarvaris Jackson expected to compete in training camp and through the preseason.
Chosen in the second round of the 2007 draft, Rice did little during his first two years in the league before reaching the Pro Bowl in 2009. With Brett Favre at quarterback, Rice had 83 receptions for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns.
His production fell dramatically in 2010, however, as poor quarterback play and a hip injury suffered at the end of the 2009 season limited him to just 17 receptions for 280 yards and a pair of scores over six games.
Fantasy Impact
Prior to the Vikings’ acquisition of Donovan McNabb, moving to Seattle would have made little difference to Rice’s fantasy prospects, with each team having major question marks at quarterback. But while McNabb is clearly on the downside of his career, he represents an obvious upgrade over rookie first-round pick Christian Ponder in Minnesota, as well as over the Seahawks’ pair of Whitehurst and Jackson.
In addition, the Vikings’ offense features more talent at the skill positions and along the offensive line than Seattle’s. That figures to limit Rice’s touchdown count with the Seahawks.
In Seattle, Rice will be reunited with former Vikings offensive coordinator Darren Bevell, so he should make a smooth transition to the Seahawks offense—always a concern when a wide receiver joins a new team.
While that is a positive, Rice’s fantasy value takes a hit with his move to Seattle because the Seahawks are likely to struggle with a pair of unproven quarterbacks and a rushing attack that also has major question marks. Rice remains a WR3 but moves down a couple of notches in the rankings, and the odds of him having a big season are far less likely in Seattle than they would have been in Minnesota.
By: Dave Stringer — July 27, 2011 @ 1:29 pm
 In 2010, the Lions featured a bevy of talented playmakers at the offensive skill positions as well as a decent offensive line that allowed quarterback Shaun Hill to average a respectable 19.1 fantasy points per game, despite his lacking the arm to consistently connect downfield with star wide receiver Calvin Johnson. With the addition of rookies Mikel Leshoure at running back and Titus Young at wide receiver, and more help along the offensive line, the future looks bright for third-year quarterback Matthew Stafford, provided he can stay healthy. That’s a big question mark since Stafford has suffered four shoulder injuries as a pro, has undergone surgery in the offseason, and has started just 13 games in the first two years of his career. The talent is there and the Lions possess tantalizing offensive potential, but relying on Stafford as your QB1 is a massive gamble. Draft him as a QB2 with upside and maybe you’ll have great trade bait by mid-season.
Jahvid Best looked like a fantasy star during the first two weeks of his rookie season, scoring a whopping 56 fantasy points on 98 rushing yards, 170 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. Of course, banking on two and half touchdowns per game from a Lions running back is folly. And, sure enough, Best didn’t find the end zone again until Week 16 when he scored his last touchdown of the season. After Week 2, he averaged a pedestrian 6.5 fantasy points per game, although his lack of production can partially be blamed on a turf toe injury. The Lions have added the bruising Mikel Leshoure to the mix, and he will almost certainly handle the short-yardage role and has a decent chance to end up splitting carries with Best. While Best clearly has the talent to be a productive running back, at this point the split of touches is likely only 60/40 in his favor, with little if any of those touches coming inside the opponents 10-yard line. Throw in Best’s injury history and he shapes up as a mid-tier RB3 with upside for 2011.
Let’s go down the rookie running back opportunity checklist: Incumbent is coming off a disappointing season? Check. Incumbent is injury prone? Check. Incumbent isn’t a great short-yardage back? Check. Team’s offense is a powerhouse? Well, there’s no check here, but the potential is there. Add it all up, and Leshoure figures to be one of the most intriguing backup running backs in 2011. Although he is a solid 225 pounds, Leshoure is more than just a power back. He has the ability to make defenders miss in the open field and possesses enough speed to break the occasional long run. Leshoure should be considered a low-end RB3 or high RB4 with significant upside, and he could be a fine flex option in 12-team leagues. If you’re going after Jahvid Best, Leshoure is a must-have handcuff who will be taken in the middle rounds of this year’s fantasy drafts—probably only a round or two after Best.
After a disappointing campaign in 2009, Johnson bounced back strongly in 2010, catching 77 passes for 1,120 yards and 12 touchdowns, despite playing with starting quarterback Matthew Stafford for just over two games and playing through an ankle injury. Backup Shaun Hill enjoyed a fine season, but his arm is no match for Stafford’s, and Megatron has the potential to be the top-rated fantasy wide receiver in 2011 if Stafford can remain upright for 16 games (granted, that’s a big “if”). The Lions added rookie Titus Young to challenge Nate Burleson, so Johnson figures to once again see plenty of targets. In fact, he could be even more productive if one of his sidekicks begins contributing more regularly; he often sees double coverage when there is no threat on the opposite side of the field. Johnson is clearly an upper-echelon WR1.
Disclaimer: I’ve never liked Burleson and I like him less now. In 2010, playing alongside Calvin Johnson, he proved just how average he is (or has become, if he were ever that talented). With Johnson seeing plenty of double coverage, Burleson was the epitome of mediocrity, catching only 55 passes for 625 yards and six touchdowns. The touchdowns padded his fantasy stats, boosting his points-per-game average to 7.0. At 29, his upside is what he produced last year and his downside, well, it’s basically the floor. Surely you can come up with a more inspired option for your fantasy team’s WR4 or WR5. Don’t let me down.
With Calvin Johnson atop the wide receiver depth chart and a pile of question marks after him, the Lions wisely used a second-round pick to upgrade the position with the selection of Boise State playmaker Titus Young. While Young lacks ideal size at 5’11”, 174 pounds, he brings plenty of speed and playmaking ability to the table. Look for him to be used mainly on special teams as a returner and out of the slot, which limits his upside. The Lions clearly see an Az-Zahir Hakim/Brandon Stokley potential, and with the attention Johnson warrants outside, Young could surprise (although relying him to be a consistent fantasy producer in his rookie season is looking for trouble). He’s worth monitoring on the waiver wire in redraft leagues and worth adding to your dynasty squad.
Detroit used a 2009 third-round pick on Williams in the hopes that the talented college playmaker would produce as both a receiver and a returner. Sure enough, he’s been a complete bust. Is there a theme here? Detroit Lions…Wide receiver…bust? Yep, that’s it. Sure, they hit on Calvin Johnson, but that’s like throwing beach balls into the ocean. Here’s what you need to know about Williams: despite having the two forgettable, aging players ahead of him in Nate Burleson and Bryant Johnson, he couldn’t muster up any playing time. Not to mention his career stats: two years, 18 games, nine receptions. With rookie second-round pick Titus Young on board, what is going to change in 2011? Not much even with the Lions releasing Johnson.
Pettigrew entered 2010 as a big question mark courtesy of the torn ACL that ended his 2009 rookie season in Week 12. He recovered quickly enough to avoid the PUP list and increased his reception total from 31 in 2009 to 71 last season—good enough to finish third in that category among tight ends. He ended the season as the 11th-ranked tight end thanks to his 722 yards and four touchdowns, but most of that production came with Shaun Hill at quarterback. Hill is clearly more of a checkdown artist than Matthew Stafford, and getting deep is not a big part of Pettigrew’s game. If he is going to improve or even duplicate his fantasy production from last season, it’s going to have to come from increasing his touchdown count. The problem there is that the Lions possess the league’s top wide receiver red zone threat in Calvin Johnson. Look for Pettigrew’s fantasy production to drop in 2011. He’s a TE2 entering the season.
With Brandon Pettigrew coming off a torn ACL and Scheffler’s history of making big plays (a nifty 13.7 yards per catch heading into 2010), it didn’t seem unrealistic that Scheffler would put together a solid season in an improving Detroit offense. Unfortunately for him and his fantasy owners, only the second half of that equation came to fruition. While Scheffler had a career-high 72 targets, he only caught 45 passes for 378 yards, averaging a career-low 8.4 yards per catch. Furthermore, he scored only one touchdown, also a career-low. With Pettigrew having entrenched himself as the team’s main threat at tight end, Scheffler’s arrow will be pointing straight down unless he finds a new team in 2011.
By: Dave Stringer — July 26, 2011 @ 12:18 pm
After struggling in 2009 during his first year with the Bears, Cutler was expected to improve with the addition of offensive coordinator Mike Martz last season. Unfortunately for both men, Cutler failed to ignite the Bears passing game, although more than a little of the blame can be placed on the team’s porous offensive line and its mediocre crop of wide receivers. Cutler ended up as the 11th-ranked fantasy quarterback, courtesy of his 3,274 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. Interestingly enough, his passing yardage total dropped and he reduced his interception total by 10 from 2009, with his touchdown passes also decreasing by three—not exactly the result you would expect with Martz at the helm. The Bears offense actually came around when Martz eschewed his normal reliance on long passes in favor of more runs and a short passing attack. Heading into 2011, the Bears have improved the offensive line, but their wide receivers figure to once again put a restriction on just how effective their passing game can be. Basically, not much has changed in Chicago, and you shouldn’t expect much to change with Cutler. He’s a low-tier fantasy starter or a backup with upside. Drop him down a couple of notches in leagues that penalize for interceptions.
Forte has been in the league for three years now and fully healthy for two. In 2009, he played through knee and hamstring injuries, yet still averaged a respectable 10.3 points per game. In his two healthy seasons, he has been highly productive, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game in 2008 and 13.5 in 2010. He ain’t sexy, but he produces, albeit not as consistently as one would hope (of his 216 fantasy points, 133 came in just six games). While Forte isn’t a top-five candidate given the lack of playmakers on the Bears offense, which limits his touchdown potential, his list of positives is long. He’s a workhorse back, having beaten back the threat of a timeshare with Chester Taylor from a year ago; he’s one of the best receiving backs in the league, averaging 57 receptions per year; and he hasn’t missed a game in three years. Better yet, he will likely present value on draft day. Chalk him up as a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 for 2011.
Taylor got sick of being Adrian Peterson’s backup in Minnesota, so he hightailed it to Chicago prior to the 2010 season, with the chance to compete with Matt Forte for the starting job. So much for that. Not only did Taylor not even come close to beating out Forte, he actually saw his touches decrease from 137 to 132. That’s what happens when you average a career-low 2.4 yards per carry and suffer through your worst year in the league since being a rookie. Taylor will turn 32 in September, so the odds of him bouncing back are slim. He’s little more than a handcuff for 2011, and even if Forte goes down, Taylor is unlikely to put up great stats. In large leagues, Forte owners may want to grab Taylor for insurance, but otherwise don’t bother.
 Johnny Knox: Where's the love?
Knox doesn’t get much love from NFL commentators or fantasy pundits, and there’s a strong argument that he doesn’t get a fair shake considering that the diminutive wide receiver is entering just his third year in the league. The rap on Knox is that he isn’t a true No. 1 receiver, even on a team desperate to ignite its passing attack. Ok, fine, but let’s take a closer look for the sake of argument. As a rookie from tiny Christian Abilene, Knox was raw and not expected to contribute much, yet he managed to catch 45 balls for 527 yards and five touchdowns. He improved upon that in 2010, catching 51 passes for 960 yards and five touchdowns while averaging an eye-popping 18.8 yards per catch. With that type of production, I’d label him as a DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace-lite with upside. Entering his third season (the supposed magical year for wide receivers), Knox has no competition to be the Bears top wide receiver, quarterback Jay Cutler will be entering his second year in the Mike Martz offense, and Chicago has taken steps to improve the offensive line. Knox will enter the season as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3, but he has plenty of upside. You could do worse.
Bennett might be the Bears’ third best wideout, but he’s the second best fantasy wide receiver in Chicago heading into 2011. With Devin Hester having proved over his first three years that he lacks the skills to be a solid starting receiver, Bennett is an intriguing option this year. As the 2010 season progressed, Bennett began to see the field more and more, averaging 6.6 fantasy points per game over the final ten games of the season—respectable production given that he was essentially splitting time with Hester. A bigger role seems likely in 2011 considering he caught 65.7 percent of his targets compared to Hester’s 57.1 percent. In addition, Bennett and Cutler were teammates at Vanderbilt, so there is a comfort level there that doesn’t exist between Cutler and Hester. While Bennett shapes up as a WR4 or WR5 entering the season, he’s worth adding as a player who has some upside if he can continue to outproduce Hester.
After two years of decent production, Hester tailed off in his third year and the Bears’ patience may be growing thin. After catching 57 passes for 757 yards and three touchdowns in 2009, his production dropped to just 40 receptions for 475 yards and four touchdowns. The big-play explosiveness that he regularly displays on special teams just hasn’t shown up at wide receiver. He has questionable hands, doesn’t seem capable of tracking down deep balls even when he does get open, and seems to run the wrong route more frequently than the Bears would like. The biggest indictment of Hester as a wide receiver is that he caught just 57.1 percent of his targets, despite averaging a pedestrian 11.9 yards per reception. Let somebody else drink the Hester Kool-Aid in 2011.
Entering 2010, the line of thinking on Olsen was that he would suffer with the addition of Mike Martz as the team’s offensive coordinator. While Martz and the Bears told anybody who would listen that Olsen would be an integral part of the offense, history suggested otherwise, with no tight end ever topping 380 receiving yards in a Martz offense. Right on cue, Olsen’s targets plummeted from a career-high 108 in 2009 to just 69 last season. His production dropped from 60 receptions for 612 yards and eight touchdowns to 41 receptions for 404 yards and five touchdowns. At least he was the most productive tight end ever in a Martz offense, good enough to rank 22nd in 2010. So, what’s going to change for Olsen in 2011? Barring a trade, nothing.
By: Dave Stringer — July 21, 2011 @ 3:31 pm
With the Bengals struggling for much of the season, and with a pair of veteran wide receivers in Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens at his disposal, Palmer threw for 3,970 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2010, good enough to finish as the 11th-rated fantasy quarterback. His play improved upon a 2009 season in which he suffered through the worst statistical year of his career—other than his first year as a starter in 2003 and an injury-shortened campaign in 2008. However, with neither veteran wideout expected back with the Bengals in 2011, and with the team likely to revert to the run-based offense that propelled them to the AFC North title in 2009, Palmer’s fantasy outlook for this season is not promising. The wide receiver depth chart will feature rookie first-round pick A.J. Green and youngsters Jerome Simpson, Jordan Shipley, and Andre Caldwell, along with second-year tight end Jermaine Gresham. That’s a big drop-off from Owens and Ochocinco and probably part of the reason Palmer has asked for a trade. The constant losing in Cincinnati certainly hasn’t helped, either. If Palmer were to stay, he did shine a ray of hope during the Bengals’ final two games last year, where he put up solid numbers while throwing to the team’s youngsters at wide receiver. But that was most likely an anomaly. Palmer ranks among the worst fantasy options at quarterback for 2011.
He’s a rookie and his receiving corps may be the league’s worst if veteran Chad Ochocinco isn’t back, as is expected. In addition, the Bengals are expected to rely heavily on the run, even though their workhorse runner is a free agent who averaged 3.5 yards per carry in 2010. While Dalton will open the season as the Bengals starter if incumbent Carson Palmer is traded—or holds out or retires—there are basically no reasons to endorse him as anything more than a last resort fantasy option for 2011. With a bevy of young talent at wide receiver, Dalton is a decent option in dynasty leagues, but he should be avoided in redraft leagues.
After having a career year in 2009, Benson stumbled slightly last season, finishing with 1,111 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground to go along with 178 receiving yards and a touchdown. While his rushing total only dropped by 140 yards, his 2009 production came in just 13 games compared to the 16 he played in 2010, and his average yards per carry dropped from 4.2 to 3.5. Benson is a free agent but figures to return to a Bengals team that has major question marks in the backfield, with quarterback Carson Palmer having requested a trade and only the unproven Bernard Scott behind Benson at running back. Benson has had 667 touches during his two-year, 29-game stay in Cincinnati, so look for him to be one of the league’s few workhorse backs once again if he remains with the team. That argument is bolstered by the success the Bengals had with the run in 2009 and the possibility that rookie Andy Dalton could open the season at quarterback. Given the high number of touches he should get, Benson ranks as a mid-tier RB2 heading into 2011, provided he stays in Cincinnati.
When the Bengals used a sixth-round pick in 2009 to draft Scott, the assumption was that he would challenge Cedric Benson for playing time. Despite Benson’s inability to generate many big plays and his lack of production as a receiver out of the backfield, Scott has not been able to earn significant playing time in the Bengals offense. He was basically an afterthought for most of the 2010 season, getting nine touches in the opening game but not topping six touches again until Week 15. Given Scott’s lack of production and use, there is little doubt that the Bengals will look for another veteran running back if they fail to re-sign Benson. That makes Scott little more than a handcuff in 2011.
Two years ago, there were rumors the Bengals had turned down two first-round picks for Ochocinco. In typical Bengals fashion, they are now looking at getting a low-round draft pick for him or releasing him outright. He has a large salary for the coming season and the Bengals will soon have to test the youth they’ve acquired at wide receiver. With Ochocinco approaching 34 years of age and having just 831 yards last year and only one 1000-yard season in the last three, his days of being a fantasy stud appear to be over. If the Bengals decide to part ways with him, he has enough left to earn a starting spot wherever he lands, but his diminishing speed means the best fantasy owners can expect from him is a repeat of his 831 yards and four touchdowns from last season. That makes him a low-end WR3 with little upside and a history of inconsistent production.
Chad Ochocinco is getting long in the tooth, and the Bengals seem destined for a youth movement. That bodes well for Green’s targets, and the odds are strong that the fourth pick in this year’s draft will emerge as the team’s top threat at wide receiver early this season. Easily the most polished wideout in the draft and arguably the most talented, Green was very productive at Georgia and had a nose for finding the end zone, with 23 touchdowns in just three seasons. At 6’4” and 210 pounds, Green has prototypical size for a receiver in the West Coast offense that new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden will employ. The biggest issues for Green will be learning a pro offense in a shortened offseason and the team’s uncertainty at quarterback and wide receiver, with the futures of Carson Palmer and Ochocinco in doubt. Green is gold in dynasty leagues, but he ranks as little more than a WR5 in 2011.
If you’re looking for a Jerome Simpson endorsement, you’ve come to the wrong place. That would involve ignoring the first 45 games of his career (in which he caught just one pass) in favor of the final three games of the 2010 season, in which he caught 20 passes for 277 yards and three touchdowns, including a pair of games with more than 18 fantasy points. While the former second-round pick likely secured another season on the Bengals roster due to those three games, the fact is that he was headed for the unemployment line and major bust status. Simpson has decent size and speed and he should be considered the front-runner to start opposite rookie A.J. Green, provided Chad Ochocinco is released as expected. However, barring a consistently productive training camp, Simpson carries major risk and is worth little more than a low draft pick in redraft leagues and should be considered waiver wire material in shallow leagues. His finish to the 2010 season makes him worth monitoring, not necessarily worth adding.
The Bengals have raved about Caldwell’s ability. Carson Palmer has raved about Caldwell’s ability. Yet in three years he has caught just 87 passes for 855 yards and three touchdowns, and last year he was beat out by rookie Jordan Shipley to be the team’s top slot receiver. Basically, Caldwell isn’t shifty enough to play inside and he’s not big or fast enough to play outside. Move on. And don’t be surprised if the Bengals follow suit.
There’s a good side to Shipley and a bad side as well. It was certainly nice that he put up a fine rookie season in 2010, with 52 receptions for 600 yards and three touchdowns. Yet it became apparent over just one season that he is best suited to line up in the slot because he doesn’t have the physical abilities necessary to succeed outside. That limits his fantasy appeal and potential in leagues that employ standard scoring. In PPR leagues, Shipley has some value given the current state of the Bengal’s wide receivers, provided he continues to build on his 2010 production. His value is further increased if rookie Andy Dalton starts at quarterback since young quarterbacks tend to throw shorter routes, which Shipley usually runs. Shipley is a WR5 in standard scoring leagues, but move him up to WR4 in PPR leagues.
After a respectable rookie season with 52 receptions for 471 yards and four touchdowns, Gresham has some sleeper appeal heading into 2011. Unfortunately, that is dampened by the Bengals potentially starting a rookie quarterback and featuring an unproven group of young wide receivers. While both factors increase the likelihood of Gresham’s targets increasing, there has to be significant concern regarding the Bengals ability to move the chains and generate any type of consistent offensive output. And although Gresham started strongly as a rookie, catching four or more passes in five of his first six games, he notched only two other such games over the balance of the season. He has the talent to excel in the team’s new West Coast offense, but Gresham remains a fantasy backup heading into 2011.
By: Mike Krueger — @ 10:40 am
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 7/7
Very few changes as we wait for the CBA to be completed. The calm before the storm…
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
- Slight decrease in Willis McGahee’s rushing yardage (-100). Potential departure from Baltimore.
- Slight increase in Le’Ron McClain’s rushing yardage (+100). May backup Rice if McGahee departs.
- Flipped-flopped James Starks and Ryan Grant. It’s likely Grant’s job to lose.
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
By: Dave Stringer — July 20, 2011 @ 12:55 am
Entering 2010, the Browns planned on keeping McCoy nailed to the bench behind veterans Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace, but when injuries struck, McCoy took over, ending up with eight starts. As a rookie, he played with decent poise and produced reasonably well given the sad state of his receiving corps. He threw for 1,576 yards and six touchdowns with nine interceptions. However, a closer look reveals that six of those nine interceptions came in the Browns’ last two games against the powerful Steelers and Ravens defenses. But swap one body part and my grandpa would be my gramma and vice versa. While McCoy looks like he could be good for the Browns in 2011, the same can’t be said for Cleveland’s wide receivers. Mohammad Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie have done nothing in their first two years to suggest they are starter worthy, and rookie third-round pick Greg Little has plenty of talent but missed all of his senior season because of a suspension. That makes McCoy one of the least desirable fantasy options at quarterback but a player worthy of a spot on your dynasty league roster.
Not much was expected of Hillis after the Broncos sent him to Cleveland in exchange for former first-round pick Brady Quinn. But by the end of 2010, Hillis had made that trade look as lopsided as any in recent memory, finishing with 1,177 rushing yards, 477 receiving yards, and 13 touchdowns and establishing himself as one of the top rushers in the AFC. The only blemishes were his eight fumbles and a weak finish, with just 335 total yards and no touchdowns over his final five games. That leaves two questions unanswered: is he the player we saw for the first 11 games or the one we saw over the last five games, and will his slow finish cause the Browns to reduce his workload in 2011? Look for Hillis to produce somewhere in between after the Browns cut back on his touches. That leaves him as a solid RB2 heading into the season.
Coming into Cleveland as a second-round pick in the 2010 draft, and into a depth chart with Jerome Harrison at the top of the list, Hardesty seemed to have a bright future. However, an injury that ruined his rookie season and a career year from Peyton Hillis has Hardesty pegged as little more than a backup for the foreseeable future. The injury came as little surprise to those who followed Hardesty’s injury-plagued college career. With Hillis atop the depth chart, Hardesty’s preseason outlook is primarily as a handcuff. Considering his injury, the current state of the Browns offense, and the fact that Hillis is entrenched as the starter, Hardesty is waiver wire material or a low-round draft pick at best in redraft leagues.
With no proven wide receiver on the depth chart, Little stands a decent chance of earning a good amount of playing time in 2011 despite missing all of his final college season because of a suspension. Unfortunately, the Browns offense doesn’t feature a proven quarterback either, and the team’s passing game has been among the worst in the league over the last few seasons. Little has prototypical size and speed for the West Coast offense the Browns will use next season, but expecting consistent production from the talented rookie is a tad unrealistic. Look for Little to emerge as Cleveland’s top wide receiver prospect, but don’t rely on his being useful as a fantasy starter in 2011. For dynasty leaguers only.
In 2011, Massaquoi enters his third year, playing on a team that lacks a proven No. 1 wideout and is moving to more of a pass-based offense. Sounds promising, no? Not so fast. Massaquoi struggled during his second season, catching just two more passes than he did in his first year and averaging just 13.4 yards per catch after being a big-play threat as a rookie (with 18.4 yards per reception). To earn the role as the team’s top threat at receiver, he needs to beat out Brian Robiskie—another disappointing player entering his third year—and rookie Greg Little, who missed all of his senior college season. The opportunity dictates that Massaquoi be drafted as a fantasy backup or a WR5 at worst, but don’t be surprised if he busts in 2011.
For the first 29 games of his career, Robiskie looked like a bust. Then the light seemed to come on over the final three games of last season, with Robiskie catching nine passes for 152 yards and three touchdowns—the only touchdowns of his career. With the Browns moving to a West Coast offense, Robiskie’s chances of breaking out in his third year clearly improved, especially considering that he has the size and pedigree to excel in that type of offense. Although the Browns are lacking in talent at wide receiver, it is difficult to foresee Robiskie becoming a fantasy starter in 2011 when looking at his lack of production during his first two years (36 receptions for 416 yards and three touchdowns). At this point, he is a fantasy backup in all but the deepest leagues and waiver wire material in leagues with shallow rosters.
Cribbs is one of the most electrifying players in the league and arguably the best returner in the game (although in 2010 he did fail to score on a kick or punt return for the first time in his six-year career). However, that hasn’t translated into fantasy success as a rusher or a receiver, and there is scant evidence to suggest that’s going to change in 2011. He had just 358 combined rushing and receiving yards on 43 touches last season, an extremely low number considering the lack of playmakers the Browns featured on offense. Consider that, as well as his lack of production in Cleveland’s base offense throughout his career, and you’ll find that you can do better than Cribbs on draft day.
Prior to joining the Browns in 2010, Watson was viewed largely as a player who had failed to capitalize on his considerable athletic gifts as a pro. Despite possessing blazing speed for a tight end, he never emerged as a consistent threat for a Patriots team that relied heavily on the passing game. Moving to a Cleveland offense with questionable talent at best, little was expected. However, Watson put together perhaps the best year of his career, leading AFC tight ends in receptions. With a dearth of talent at wide receiver, Watson caught 68 passes for 763 yards (both career highs) and three touchdowns. Moving into 2011, the Browns have improved the depth chart at wide receiver and will be moving to a West Coast offense, which traditionally benefits the tight end. Look for those factors to negate one another and for Watson to remain a TE2.
By: Dave Stringer — July 17, 2011 @ 1:21 pm
Roethlisberger entered last year coming off his best season as a pro when he finished as the eighth-ranked fantasy quarterback. Despite having to serve a four-game suspension to start the 2010 season, he proved that his fantasy production in 2009 wasn’t a fluke, throwing for 3,200 yards and 17 touchdowns in 12 games. He also chipped in 176 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, helping to pad his fantasy point total. The Steelers are clearly a pass-based offense when Roethlisberger is in the lineup, and his projections for 2011 remain solid with Mike Wallace entering his third season and second-year receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown coming off impressive rookie campaigns. Throw in the reliable Hines Ward along with Heath Miller at tight end, and Roethlisberger could have six quality receiving options in 2011. Roethlisberger will be drafted after the big six at quarterback and ranks in the second tier with Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, and Josh Freeman.
With the Steelers forced to open the season without Roethlisberger, Mendenhall burst out of the gate over the first four games, gaining 411 yards on the ground with four rushing touchdowns. At that point, he looked like a sure bet to establish himself as a top five fantasy running back. However, when Big Ben returned to the lineup, Mendenhall’s production took a hit. Over the last 12 games of the season, he ran for 863 yards and nine touchdowns. To sum it up: without Roethlisberger, 17.0 points per game; with him, 12.8 points per game. Without Big Ben, Mendenhall is a top five running back, but having Roethlisberger in the lineup likely lands him just outside of the top ten. There’s little reason to believe that Roethlisberger won’t stay healthy for all but a game or two in 2011. A pair of divisions that feature weak run defenses (the AFC South and NFC West) are on tap for the Steelers, so draft Mendenhall as a low-end RB1 or a high-end RB2, but he shouldn’t be considered among the league’s elite fantasy running backs.
Redman essentially came out of nowhere to win the backup role behind Rashard Mendenhall in 2010. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry, gaining 247 yards on 52 carries and playing well enough that the team decided against adding to the backfield in the draft. Redman also showed some nifty moves as a receiver, scoring twice on just nine receptions. He shapes up as needed insurance for Mendenhall owners, and he displayed enough last season to suggest that he could provide solid fantasy production if Mendenhall were to be out of the lineup for an extended period.
The 2010 sixth-round pick lost the backup role to Isaac Redman last season and rarely saw the field during his rookie year. Dwyer has good size at 5’11” and 230 pounds and was the lead runner for Georgia Tech, but he has failed to impress with the Steelers so far. Head coach Mike Tomlin essentially called him out after the season, stating that he needed to improve greatly in 2011. Don’t bet on that happening. Unless he can beat out Redman (which seems unlikely), he isn’t worth a roster spot in dynasty leagues.
Wallace played well as a rookie in 2009 and was given a major opportunity when the Steelers unloaded Santonio Holmes to the Jets before last season. He didn’t disappoint. With 60 receptions for 1,257 yards and ten touchdowns, Wallace earned distinction as one of the league’s top ten wide receivers. Over the course of his two-year career, Wallace has averaged 20.3 yards per reception, making him perhaps the best big-play receiver in the league. Simply put, quarterbacks can’t overthrow him, and he has worked hard to develop his game on short and intermediate patterns as well. He was the sixth-ranked fantasy wide receiver last season and averaged 12.7 points per game with Ben Roethlisberger in the lineup. There is no reason to suggest he can’t duplicate both feats in 2011.
Ward finally showed his age last year, posting his lowest receiving total since his injury-shortened 2007 campaign. Removing that season, his 755 receiving yards in 2010 was his lowest total since 2000, his third year in the league. A knee injury may have hindered him last season, but with Mike Wallace now firmly entrenched as the team’s top wide receiver, and with second-year players Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown coming off solid rookie seasons, Ward will likely struggle to match even his 2010 production. He is little more than a possession receiver at this point. While the temptation will be to draft him as a WR3 based on his previous production, he should be considered a backup or a solid flex option for leagues that employ the position.
Drafted in the third round of the 2010 draft, Sanders enjoyed a reasonably productive rookie season as he shared the third receiver role with veteran Antwan Randle-El and fellow rookie Antonio Brown, catching 28 passes for 376 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Sanders started slowly with just four receptions over the first half of the season, but then he became the team’s main option in three-receiver sets, catching 24 passes for 300 yards and a pair of scores over the second half of the season. That production bodes well for the future as he appears set to take over Hines Ward’s spot as starter as early as 2012, provided he can build on his rookie performance in 2011. Bank on that happening. Consider Sanders a solid prospect in dynasty leagues and a player to watch on the waiver wire in redraft formats.
Miller entered last season coming off a career year, when he caught 76 passes for 789 yards and six touchdowns in 2009. There were warning signs for 2010, however, with Ben Roethlisberger serving a four-game suspension, Miller having been a fantasy dud in 2008, and his 2007 season having been saved only by seven touchdown receptions. Sure enough, he suffered a huge drop-off in 2010, with 42 receptions for 512 yards and just two touchdowns. With a wide receiver depth chart that features four quality options, Miller doesn’t figure to rebound in 2011. Consider him a mid-tier backup with little prospect of a big season.
By: Dave Stringer — July 15, 2011 @ 2:20 am
With Anquan Boldin in the mix at wide receiver, much was expected of Flacco in 2010. While he improved in his third year in the league, it’s safe to say the Ravens and his fantasy owners were a little underwhelmed by his overall production. He threw for a career-high 25 touchdown passes (four more than in 2009), but his yardage total increased by just nine yards to 3,622. With aging starters at wide receiver (Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason) and tight end (Todd Heap), improvement in the passing game will be placed squarely on Flacco’s shoulders. He remains a work-in-progress who displays poor mechanics and poor decision-making more often than the Ravens would like. For 2011, consider Flacco an upper-tier fantasy backup or a great option if you choose to play the matchups with a pair of decent, if unspectacular, quarterbacks.
 Rice: Best suited for PPR leagues. What a difference a year makes. After bursting onto the fantasy scene in 2009 with 2,041 total yards and eight touchdowns, Rice was considered a bit of a disappointment last season with 1,779 total yards and six touchdowns and with his fantasy ranking slipping from fourth to 11th at running back. Rice continued to lose touches in the red zone to Willis McGahee, and while McGahee likely won’t return in 2011, there is a decent chance that Le’Ron McClain will assume his role for the coming season. Add it all up and Rice is clearly a player better suited to PPR leagues, and those generally do not have touchdown-heavy scoring formats. Barring injury, Rice is a lock to average more than 100 total yards per game, and he could easily vault back into the top five at running back if he can find the end zone on a more regular basis. Don’t be surprised if that happens in 2011.
At 29 years old and having spent most of the last three seasons as a backup, the chance of McGahee ever becoming the star running back many expected when he entered the league is remote. While his days as a starter are clearly over, he has proven to be a valuable backup who is capable of producing as a runner, particularly in short yardage situations. He has also been a nice change-of-pace back and receiver out of the backfield—although that is not his strong suit. Best of all for McGahee owners, over the past three years he has been a touchdown machine (as far as backups and handcuffs go), scoring 27 times over that span—production that many starters have failed to attain. He enters 2011 as a decent flex option in larger leagues, but one with little upside.
McClain has been a victim of circumstance during his four years with the Ravens, originally stuck behind Willis McGahee and then both Ray Rice and McGahee. With McGahee carrying a big salary while still being reasonably productive, the Ravens chose to stick with him despite the solid potential that McClain displayed in 2008 when he supplanted McGahee as the team’s lead back, rushing for 907 yards and ten touchdowns on 231 carries. He has been relegated to a fullback role for the past two years, but with the skills he’s shown in his limited opportunities and at just 26 years old, he remains an intriguing option. He’s clearly a deep, deep sleeper but worth stashing at the back end of your depth chart in leagues with large rosters.
Boldin was traded to the Ravens with much fanfare during the 2010 offseason, the thought being that he would help lead the team on a deep playoff run and ignite a Baltimore passing attack that failed to produce big plays in 2009. Suffice it to say, Boldin didn’t produce as expected, and playoff success eluded the Ravens. While he wasn’t a bust in Baltimore, he had the worst year of his career in 2010 (not counting injury-shortened campaigns), catching just 64 passes for 837 yards and seven touchdowns. Removing a 142-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Browns in Week 3, Boldin averaged just 6.2 fantasy points per game, hardly justifying the upper-tier WR2 ranking he had upon entering the season. In fact, he barely produced more than Derrick Mason, scoring the same amount of touchdowns and gaining just 35 more yards. While Boldin’s drop in production can be partly blamed on the Ravens’ lack of game planning, the bottom line is that defenses can take him out of games when they don’t have to key in on a proven deep threat, which the Ravens don’t possess. Baltimore used a second-round pick on speedster Torrey Smith, but he is raw and unlikely to take much pressure off Boldin. Boldin ranks as a low-end WR2 entering 2011, but with some upside if the Ravens can find a way to better utilize his talents.
When the Ravens acquired Anquan Boldin during the 2010 offseason and added T.J. Houshmandzadeh just before opening day, Mason was expected to see a major drop in both his playing time and production. However, while his targets dropped dramatically from 134 to 100, he remained productive, catching 61 passes for 802 yards and seven touchdowns. With Houshmandzadeh and Donte Stallworth out of the mix and rookie second-round pick Torrey Smith likely to win the backup role, there is a decent possibility that Mason can duplicate that production in 2011. He’s not a sexy pick, but he can likely be had as a low-end WR4. That should make him a bargain on draft day.
In 2010, the Ravens’ passing attack clearly suffered from the lack of a big-play threat, with Donte Stallworth suspended for eight games and then failing to earn significant playing time for the balance of the season. That allowed defenses to key in on Anquan Boldin, causing him to have the worst year of his career. Enter Smith, the team’s second-round pick in this year’s draft. He is a speedster capable of forcing defenses to play with a safety deep, provided he can produce at a reasonable level. With Boldin and Derrick Mason both in their thirties, Smith is an excellent prospect in dynasty leagues; just don’t expect him to produce on a consistent basis in 2011.
Heap looked good at times in 2010, displaying some big-play potential while averaging a career-high 15.0 yards per catch. Unfortunately, he missed most of one game and all of three others when he was injured in Week 13 against Pittsburgh, bringing back the injury concerns that plagued him earlier in his career. To be fair, he has played all 16 games in four of the past six seasons, so the injury issue isn’t as big as it’s made out to be. The bigger issue for Heap may be the presence of a pair of second-year players in Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta, who are ready to challenge him for playing time. Of the two, Dickson is the bigger threat, thought to be Heap’s potential replacement when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2012. Consider Heap a mid-tier fantasy option for the coming season.
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