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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — June 27, 2011 @ 12:28 pm
When the Bills pulled the chute on the Trent Edwards era after two games last season, they handed the reins over to the unheralded Fitzpatrick. Prior to 2010, Fitzpatrick had little success filling in for an injured Carson Palmer in Cincinnati in 2008 and for Edwards in 2009. However, the Bills’ moribund passing attack came alive with Fitzpatrick under center for 13 games (he sat out Week 17), and he finished the year with career highs in passing yards (3,000) and touchdowns (23). He is also an underrated threat rushing the ball, finishing the year with 269 yards on the ground (he had 304 in 2008). He also finished as the 17th-rated quarterback but was ninth overall in quarterbacks with ten or more starts. Bills management showed their faith in him by not using a pick in the draft to acquire a young talent at the position, which means he will be the team’s starter in 2011, barring injury. Consider Fitzpatrick an upper-tier backup in 2011 and a player you can feel reasonably comfortable using as your starter if you want to employ the strategy of using a late pick (or few auction dollars) on the position.
If you’re looking for resiliency and determination, look no further than Fred Jackson. Hardly the biggest or fastest running back in the league, he has overcome his status as a Division II college player to unseat a pair of first-round draft picks (first Marshawn Lynch, then C.J. Spiller last year) to retain his starting position with the Bills. And why not? All he does is produce. Despite breaking his hand in training camp and sacrificing playing time as the team showcased Lynch for a trade, Jackson had another productive season. He finished with 927 rushing yards, 215 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns, despite having just 22 touches over the first four weeks of the season. Over the remaining 12 games, he averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game, which ranks as mid-tier RB2 production. Jackson will have to fend off Spiller once again in 2011, but history suggests he will enter the season as the team’s starter. While it’s possible Spiller will take over as the starter at some point, Jackson would still get plenty of touches in that scenario as well as remain the team’s option at the goal line. He should be a good value on draft day.
The Bills took plenty of heat for using the ninth pick in the 2010 draft to take Spiller, despite having Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch in their backfield depth chart. The hope was that Spiller would provide a spark as a triple threat—a runner, receiver, and return man similar to Percy Harvin and Reggie Bush. Unfortunately, he didn’t prove to be much of a threat in any facet. He averaged just 3.8 per carry and 6.5 yards per reception, finishing the year with 440 yards and just a single touchdown (although he also had a kickoff return touchdown). Heading into 2011, it’s basically a leap of faith to believe that Spiller is ready to unseat the reliable Fred Jackson as the team’s starter. Spiller will definitely get more touches than he did last season, but he needs to develop into more of a playmaker to become a useful fantasy option. He could become a solid flex option, but it’s hard to predict much more than that from him based on his performance last season.
The Bills signed Evans to a monster four-year, $37.5-million contract early in 2008 and he has done nothing but disappoint since. Over the last two seasons, he has posted successive career lows in receiving yards (612 in 2009 and then 578 last year) and been a complete non-factor on short and intermediate routes. That basically makes him a one-trick pony. But he hasn’t even been able to beat defenders deep, particularly last season when he finished with just four touchdowns. Simply put, he can’t get open anymore, catching just 46.3 percent of his targets in 2009 and 44.6 percent in 2010. Evans lost his role as the Bills lead receiver last year to Steve Johnson, and there’s no evidence to suggest he’s going to earn it back. The Bills are a young, rebuilding team, and the argument could even be made that the 30-year-old Evans will have a lesser role in 2011 as the team attempts to develop a crop of promising young receivers. Let somebody else take a flier on him.
 Johnson will retain his role as the top receiver in the Bills offense.
While it certainly wasn’t a surprise when Johnson beat out disappointing 2008 second-round pick James Hardy for a starting position, nobody could have foreseen the tremendous season he would have in 2010. As Lee Evans continued to disappoint, Johnson made the most of his opportunity, finishing the year with 82 receptions for 1,083 yards and 10 touchdowns. That production made him the tenth-ranked fantasy wide receiver last season. While there were plenty of receivers trumpeted as potential breakout candidates entering their third seasons, Johnson was rarely mentioned in that group. Entering his fourth year in the league, and with Fitzpatrick back at the quarterback, Johnson figures to retain his spot as the team’s top receiver and should provide solid fantasy production in 2011. While it’s hard to predict a repeat top-ten performance given his lofty touchdown total last season, Johnson shapes up as a potential upper-tier WR2—one who could be a bargain on draft day given his short track record. Other owners in your league might consider him a one-year wonder. Don’t make that mistake yourself on draft day.
The Bills have been searching for a pass-receiving threat at tight end for what seems like ages. They grabbed Nelson in the fifth round of the 2009 draft hoping he could grow into that role. But he has done little during his first two years in the league, missing much of last season with migraine headaches and having to serve a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Nelson is talented and the Bills have little invested at the position, so he remains the player most likely to win the starting job on opening day. Just don’t expect him to make much of the opportunity.
By: Mike Krueger — June 23, 2011 @ 11:56 am
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 6/23
Quarterbacks
- Changed the passing attempts and competition numbers for Aaron
Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Jay Cutler, Tim Tebow,
Matt Cassel, & Colt McCoy.
- +3 in the Rankings for Joe Flacco for his consistency the last
two years.
- Slight yardage downgrade (-75) for Matthew Stafford as his injury
risk weighs on my mind.
- Slight passing yardage increases for Cam Newton and Andy Dalton
however both rookies remain in Tier 4.
- Included Vince Young. He’s not expected back in Tennessee
and has little fantasy value until he finds a home.
Running Backs
- Changed the rushing attempts and reception numbers for numerous
players which should help those of you with MyFFT PPR leagues get
a more accurate view of the projections. Players with these changes
include Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Matt Forte,
LeSean McCoy, Peyton Hillis, Michael Bush, & Beanie Wells.
- -50 receiving yards for Jamaal Charles but Ranking stays the same.
- Flip-flopped Ryan Torain (38) and Keiland Williams (52). Given
Shanahan’s track record, I wouldn’t touch any Washington
RB at this point.
- +2 in the Rankings for Ryan Mathews. I’m anxious to but him
in Tier 3 but can’t pull the trigger until on-field workouts
begin.
- +3 in the Rankings for Mark Ingram due to upside.
- +10 in the Rankings for Marion Barber. I don’t expect him
to be in Dallas this year but he has more upside value than where
he was initially ranked.
Wide Receivers
- Changed the reception numbers for numerous players which should
help those of you with MyFFT PPR leagues get a more accurate view
of the projections. Reception totals were changed for Hakeem Nicks,
Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Lloyd, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson,
Dez Bryant, Steve Smith (CAR), Jacoby Jones, & Greg Little.
- -100 yards for Amendola. Trying to predict the Rams receivers at
this point in time is difficult at best and while I’m bullish
on Amendola succeeding in Josh McDaniels’s offense, my initial
yardage total was a little ambitious.
- +50 yards for Dez Bryant and +2 in Rankings. Bryant’s upside
is big.
- Included Eric Decker. He was left out of the initial Rankings by
mistake.
Tight Ends
- Slight bumps for Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen who were both slotted
a couple spots too low in my initial Rankings.
- I still haven’t gathered my thoughts on Shockey and how much
he’ll be a factor in the passing game but he does move up a
few notches for the time being.
- Reception numbers were altered for Owen Daniels, Todd Heap, Ben
Watson, and Tony Moeaki.
- I’m predicting a down year for Gonzalez as he comes to the
end of a fabulous career, but my initial projections were too low.
A slight bump for Tony G.
By: Dave Stringer — November 4, 2010 @ 2:49 pm
The Tennessee Titans have been awarded Randy Moss on waivers.
The Titans have a need for a receiver with youngster Kenny Britt expected to miss at least four weeks with a severe right hamstring injury, so it was not unexpected that they would put in a claim for Moss.
However, the biggest surprise is the teams ahead of the Titans in the claim process did not make a claim.
Of the playoff contending teams, the St. Louis Rams, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders, Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks all had waiver priority over Tennessee and are in need of help at the wide receiver position but decided against making a claim for Moss.
Their decisions allowed the Titans to claim Moss, moving him to a team that can use his deep threat ability while at the same times giving Chris Johnson more room to operate in the running game.
The Titans become Moss’ third team in 2010, having been traded to the Vikings from the Patriots on October 6th before being waived on Tuesday.
The Vikings decision to wave Moss so soon after acquiring him, resulted from his lack of production on the field, a well-publicized altercation with a catering staff, and a rambling five-minute post-game press conference that criticized Vikings’ coaches and praised his former head coach, Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots.
Fantasy Impact
The Titans are clearly gambling on Moss but it’s easy to see why they claimed him on waivers.
 Chris Johnson: The clear winner. Their rushing attack hasn’t been as successful in 2010 because opposing defenses are clamping down on Chris Johnson, playing eight men in the box on a regular basis.
With Britt out for an extended period, this problem would have been even more exaggerated with Washington and Justin Gage in the starting line-up at wide receiver.
With Moss in the line-up, opposing defenses will play two safeties deep more frequently and that should give Johnson more breathing room in the running game. That makes Johnson a clear winner with the addition of Moss.
At quarterback, Vince Young and Kerry Collins also benefit from the addition of Moss. They get a player still capable of getting deep on a regular basis and that should also translate into more success for the receivers playing opposite Moss on intermediate routes.
Both quarterbacks are solid deep passers and become an upper tier backup for fantasy purposes with Young clearly having more upside given his ability to also contribute in the running game.
At wide receiver, Justin Gage has clearly lost his chance at moving into the starting line-up so he’s a fantasy loser with this move. He was a potential pickup in only the deepest of leagues anyway.
Nate Washington remains the second option but will be out of the starting line-up when Britt returns. Washington should see a slight increase in production until he loses his starting spot to Britt.
Britt goes from being the number one option to playing second fiddle to Moss but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. He has proven capable of being productive when defenses focus too much attention on Johnson. If defenses focus exclusively on shutting down Moss and Johnson, Britt will have some big games when he returns. Consider Britt a mid-tier WR2 when he’s back in the line-up.
As for Moss, while this isn’t the ideal landing spot for him (that would have been New England), this isn’t a bad second option. He will fulfill the same role he did with the Patriots and Vikings. Look for him to getting plenty of deep looks and red zone work with Tennessee.
What should whet the appetite of his fantasy owners is the Titans schedule over the second half of the season. After a Week 9 bye, they face a number of weak passing defenses. Here is a list of the teams the Titans face between Week 10 and 16 and their pass defense rankings: Dolphins (18th), Redskins (31st), Texans (30th), Jaguars (32nd), Colts (13th), Texans (30th) and Chiefs (12th)
Moss shapes up as a mid-tier WR2 with upside but a player who brings considerable risk given his surly attitude and extremely questionable behavior in 2010. If motivated, he could be a significant fantasy contributor over the balance of the fantasy season considering the Titans schedule.
By: Dave Stringer — September 21, 2010 @ 11:11 am
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Mark Sanchez, Jets
Slim pickings in the Moving Up category, unless the ascension of Jimmy Clausen in Carolina or Bruce Gradkowski in Oakland excites you. (For me those would be a “No” and a “Maybe…as a backup.”) Sanchez chewed up the Patriots in Week 2, proving either that he’s capable of bouncing back or that the Patriots pass defense is even worse than people thought it would be. Sanchez dinked and dunked his way to 220 yards and three touchdowns while completing 21 of 30 passes.
Moving Down
Joe Flacco, Ravens
Two games, one mediocre performance last week and one absolutely dreadful performance against the Bengals this week, which included one touchdown pass, four interceptions, and just 154 passing yards. Flacco was a preseason breakout candidate due to the acquisition of Anquan Boldin, and that prediction was bolstered by the signing of T.J. Houshmandzadeh just prior to opening day. However, Flacco now looks like a matchup quarterback after struggling against solid defenses in New York and Cincinnati.
Jason Campbell, Raiders
So much for Campbell coming to Oakland and finally providing the Raiders with some respectable play at the quarterback position. Head coach Tom Cable benched the team’s key offseason acquisition at halftime of this week’s game against St. Louis in favor of backup Bruce Gradkowski. Despite the Rams bringing a decent pass rush, Gradkowski led the Raiders to a come-from-behind victory, finishing 11 of 22 for 162 yards with one touchdown and one interception, which came on a tipped ball. With all things in Oakland revolving around owner Al Davis, it’s also worth noting that Gradkowski had a nice rapport with 2009 first-round pick (and supposed Davis favorite) Darrius Heyward-Bey, who caught six balls for 80 yards in the most impressive game of his young career.
 Two INTs in ten passes is offensive. Vince Young, Titans
Unless you reside on another planet, you know how inconsistent Vince Young can be. However, there’s inconsistent and then there’s absolutely pathetic. Young got yanked this week after throwing two picks out of only ten passes in a home game against the Steelers that most expected Tennessee to win.
Matt Moore, Panthers
There’s pretty much no reason for Panthers head coach John Fox to stick with Moore. Simply put, he’s been horrible during the first two weeks of the season. After going 14 of 33 for 182 yards with a touchdown and three picks to open the season against the Giants, Moore followed that one up with another stinker this week against a suspect Buccaneers defense, completing just six of 16 passes for 125 yards with a touchdown and an interception. With a young team clearly in a rebuilding phase, there’s little point to sticking with Moore when second-round pick Jimmy Clausen is clearly the team’s future quarterback.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Jahvid Best, Lions
Hello, RB1 status. Best was pedestrian in Week 1 against the Bears, putting up solid fantasy production courtesy of two touchdowns but managing just 36 yards on 19 touches. No such problems this week against the Eagles. Best went wild, racking up 78 rushing yards, 154 receiving yards, and three touchdowns on 26 touches. After this performance, look for the Lions to get Best major touches on a weekly basis.
Jason Snelling, Falcons
After Michael Turner left with a groin injury, Snelling ran over the Cardinals defense in a home win. He racked up 129 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries, and he pitched in on the receiving end as well with five receptions for 57 yards and a score. The Falcons have indicated that Turner could have returned, but his services weren’t required in a blowout win over the Cardinals. Nonetheless, giddy up to the waiver wire to see if Snelling is available, since there is mounting evidence that Turner cannot stay healthy.
Mike Tolbert, Chargers
Two games, two Ryan Mathews fumbles—and an ankle injury this week for good measure. Tolbert got the work this week, picking up 82 yards and two touchdowns on six carries in the Chargers’ crushing defeat of the Jaguars, Don’t get excited on this one; the Chargers are clearly heavily invested in Mathews. Two points worth noting: We now have evidence that Tolbert can produce when given an opportunity, and he—not Darren Sproles—was the Chargers’ go-to guy with the lead and with Mathews out.
LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets
Tomlinson has outperformed starter Shonn Greene in two straight games to open the season. With Greene benched for fumbling in Week 1 against the Ravens, Tomlinson piled up 78 total yards on just 13 touches. This week against the Patriots he had 102 total yards on 15 touches and is now averaging an impressive 6.3 yards per carry, and he looks much better than he did in 2009 with the Chargers.
Moving Down
Brandon Jackson, Packers
I basically was forced to put him in the Moving Up category last week since he was taking over as the starter for the high-powered Packers offence. But even with the Bills and their pathetic run defense on tap in a home game, I knew there was a chance Jackson would be “Moving Down” after Week 2. Sure enough, he proved how completely mediocre he is, with just 29 yards on 11 carries against Buffalo. His fantasy line was saved, however, by a touchdown. Here’s my math on this one: The Packers want to go to the Super Bowl, they have the potential to go to the Super Bowl, and the odds of them not acquiring a running back to supplant Jackson seem incredibly low. Even a general manager who loves draft picks as much as Ted Thompson loves them would still love going to the Super Bowl more. No?
Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Tashard Choice, Cowboys
Two games, 132 yards rushing and 43 receiving yards. That’s low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 fantasy production for any single player. Unfortunately, that’s what Barber, Jones, and Choice have combined for during the Cowboys first two games, both of which were losses. Perhaps the Cowboys offensive line is actually worse than advertised.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
As noted above, two games, two fumbles. The rookie first-round pick is clearly pressing and in danger of losing playing time if he can’t control his fumblitis.
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
I generally don’t follow the “take away a play” kind of analysis, but let’s go there in Mendenhall’s case. Take away the 50-yard touchdown run in overtime against the Falcons in Week 1 and Mendenhall has 139 yards and no touchdowns on 44 carries, which averages out to 3.2 yards per carry. Also, the Steelers have scored only one offensive touchdown in two games. They are also down to third-stringers Charlie Batch and Byron Leftwich at quarterback. If somebody in your league wants to pay up for Mendenhall, it’s definitely worth listening.
Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers
It’s nice that the Bucs have given Caddy 49 carries so far this year. Not so nice that he’s turned those carries into 126 yards and no touchdowns. Backs that average 2.6 yards a pop start to lose touches pretty quickly in the Not For Long league.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Devin Hester, Bears
Last week Hester looked like a fantasy albatross, with just one target during the Bears victory over the Lions. However, the Devin Aromashodu experiment is apparently over (see below), and Earl Bennett is no threat to unseat Hester from the starting line-up. The end result this week against the Cowboys was four receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown.
Kevin Walter, Texans
Houston head coach Gary Kubiak seems like a perfectly smart coach, and the Texans have won twice to open the season. It’s easy to imagine Kubiak getting Walter even more involved, since so far he’s caught all 13 passes thrown his way—for 173 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Looks like the whole Jacoby Jones versus Walter preseason debate was a waste of time since there are plenty of touches to go around in Houston with tight end Owen Daniels missing from action, at least for the early part of 2010.
Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
Read Jason Campbell above. With Gradkowski in for the second half against the Rams, Heyward-Bey caught six balls for 80 yards, which moves him into WR4 with upside status. Murphy gets the same rankings courtesy of a six-reception, 91-yard, one-touchdown performance.
Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
Meet Denver’s new number one wide receiver. Although Eddie Royal has been solid over the Broncos first two games, he is clearly better suited to fulfilling the number two role, with the 6’3”, 230-pound Thomas taking over for the departed Brandon Marshall in the team’s offence. After missing Week 1 with a foot injury, Thomas was targeted nine times in his debut against Seattle, catching eight passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. He’s not starter-worthy just yet but definitely worth grabbing on the waiver wire, if he’s available.
Mario Manningham, Giants
Hakeem Nicks is the breakout candidate and Steve Smith is coming off a 107-reception season. But it’s Manningham who has led the Giants in receiving yards in each of the first two games.
Moving Down
Devin Aromashodu, Bears
In Week 1 he was the Bears receiver to own, courtesy of his ten targets. Different story in Week 2, with no playing time and no targets against the Cowboys. Earl Bennett played with Devin Hester and Johnny Knox in three-receiver sets.
Derrick Mason and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Ravens
Mason’s been targeted 11 times this year and has caught three for 52 yards and a touchdown. Houshmandzadeh’s been targeted 10 times this year and has caught one for 27 yards. Maybe the Ravens got Houshmandzadeh because they thought Mason was washed up. As it turns out, they’re both washed up.
Steve Smith, Giants
I’m not giving up on him yet, but the bottom line is that he’s caught nine of 17 targets for 78 yards in two weeks—a far cry from his 2009 production of 107 receptions for 1,220 yards and seven touchdowns. Sure, the Giants struggled this week against the Colts, but it’s clear that Nicks and Manningham are far more explosive players than Smith.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
In Week 1 when backup tight end Tony Scheffler got seven targets to Pettigrew’s two, it seemed that Pettigrew’s recovery from a last season’s torn ACL might relegate him to more of a blocking role, at least for the early part of 2010. However, he came back with a vengeance this week with seven receptions on eight targets for 108 yards. If wide receiver Nate Burleson’s ankle injury causes him to miss some time, Pettigrew will be in line for an increased workload in the coming weeks.
Dustin Keller, Jets
After suffering through a sophomore slump in 2009, Keller is getting more opportunities this year, and he took advantage of that in Week 2. Against the Patriots, Keller caught seven of nine targets for a cool 115 yards and a score. He was shaping up as a marginal backup entering the season but now looks like a quality backup with upside, especially in dynasty leagues.
Moving Down
Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
Well, I feel like I have to put somebody here, so of the underachieving tight ends, I’m going with Gonzalez for a number of reasons. First, he’s the oldest, and age is no friend to NFL players. But more important than his age is how he’s being utilized. With Michael Jenkins out of the lineup, you would think Gonzalez would be getting more opportunities. Instead, after two games, he has just four receptions for 54 yards with no touchdowns. Surely he’ll come around, but it’s worth noting that his targets were way down in his first year with Atlanta, and there’s nothing to suggest that will change following these first two games.
By: Dave Stringer — September 8, 2010 @ 6:12 am
With many leagues drafting in early or mid-August and plenty of player movement since then, many fantasy football leagues allow waiver wire pickups prior to week one of the regular season.
Since mid-August, the major NFL headlines have focused on Brett Favre’s announcement that he will play in 2010 (surprise, surprise), the ascension of Arian Foster to starting running back of the Texans, the shocking release of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the Bucs decision to give up on Derrick Ward and a trade sprinkled in for good measure (Mark
Clayton to the Rams).
Add it all up and there are plenty of intriguing options on the waiver wire in most leagues prior to week one.
– With Ward getting chopped, Huggins shot up fantasy football draft boards on the assumption he would take over as the team’s top backup behind Cadillac Williams. Huggins is a small, shifty player with excellent speed but he may be best suited to third down duties.
It is debatable whether the Bucs would turn to Huggins or Earnest Graham in the event of a Williams’ injury. If Huggins won the nod over Graham, he would be a tempting option but the recent signing of LeGarrette Blount tempers my enthusiasm a wee bit. Cadillac does have an extensive injury history, although he did play 16 games in 2009.
Fantasy Outlook: Handcuff to Williams and worth owning in all leagues except small roster, redraft formats.
– The rookie fourth round pick has won a spot in the starting line-up with an impressive preseason and only tight end Kellen Winslow figures to get more targets early in the season. Williams has good size and speed and has already established himself as the Bucs top wide receiver.
The Bucs passing game was a mess in 2009 but quarterback Josh Freeman figures to be much improved in 2010. The Bucs are likely to be playing from behind often so Williams will be targeted plenty this year, provided he can hold off second round pick Arrelious Benn.
Fantasy Outlook: I’m sold, especially in dynasty leagues. Grab Williams in all formats but don’t draft him as a fantasy starter.
– Just traded to the Rams, Clayton goes from being a complete non-factor in Baltimore to a potential number one wide receiver in St. Louis. He possesses excellent speed but has been inconsistent, which can be partially attributed to his use almost exclusively as a deep threat.
Incumbent top wide receiver Laurent Robinson has missed plenty of time with injuries during his three years in the league and DannyAmendola is best suited to playing out of the slot.
Fantasy Outlook: Starting on the outside by week two or three with the potential to be Sam Bradford’s top target shortly thereafter. The Rams offense is ugly but they figure to be behind early and often so Clayton should see plenty of targets in 2010. Grab him in larger leagues as a WR5.
– Jones is a speedy player who has struggled at times with consistency and drops. However, with 12 receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown in the first three preseason games, Jones has outplayed Kevin Walter and likely earned a spot in the starting lineup.
With the Texans expected to boast one of the league’s most explosive passing attacks in 2010, Jones is an attractive option and should be considered a potential breakout player.
Fantasy Outlook: Jones is worth owning in all formats. His stock will rise after Week One so grab him now if you can.
– That’s right – your eyes aren’t deceiving you. There are two Mike Williamses on the list and yes, the second one is the former Detroit Lions first-round bust.
Now that you’ve picked yourself up off the ground, consider this. The Seahawks cast of wide receivers features a rookie caught stealing donuts (Golden Tate), a 2009 third-round pick who did nothing as a rookie (Deon Butler), a fifth-year player with 16 career receptions (Ben Obamanu) and a veteran on his last legs who has averaged 41 receptions per year over the last three years (Deion Branch). Plus, the Seahawks chopped T.J. Houshmandzadeh to create a spot in the starting lineup for Williams.
Williams was the Seahawks best receiver in the preseason and the Seahawks don’t figure to be very good so expect the pass-run ratio to be weighted in Williams’ favor.
Fantasy Outlook: Hey, I’m not sold on him and you shouldn’t be either. However, at the moment, he ranks as the Seahawks top wide receiver so he figures to get plenty of opportunities unless he proves unable to take advantage of them. Grab him in larger leagues.
– Rookie running back Montario Hardesty will miss the entire 2010 season with a torn ACL and the Browns dropped 2009 backup Chris Jennings. Hillis will compete with 2009 sixth-round round pick James Davis for carries behind Jerome Harrison.
Hillis received extensive playing time for the Broncos in 2008, gaining 480 total yards and six touchdowns in five games. With the selection of Hardesty in the second round and the trade for Hillis, the Browns clearly are not sold on Harrison.
Fantasy Outlook: Hillis will be dressed on game day due to his ability to play fullback, running back and contribute on special teams. Look for him to get short-yardage work and earn the backup spot over Davis.
Other Players to Consider
– Back in early August, it appeared Vincent Jackson would come to his senses and get a deal done with the Chargers or the team would acquire a solid veteran to play alongside Malcolm Floyd. Josh Reed (since released) and Patrick Crayton were the only additions so Naanee will start on opening day in one of the league’s high-powered offenses. Nice upside on your bench.
– Excellent preseason and, continuing the theme, the Rams will need to throw it plenty in 2010. Might be a decent fantasy backup during his rookie season.
– Bills cut 2008 second round pick James Hardy and Chad Jackson leaving Johnson fighting for targets with Roscoe Parrish and two undrafted rookie free agents. Plus, at tight end, Shawn Nelson is hurt and Derek Schoumann was released leaving recently signed David Martin the team’s best receiving option at the position. Johnson could be a surprise in 2010.
– Bengals management and quarterback Carson Palmer have raved about Shipley’s play in the preseason. He has locked up the slot receiver role and could be a decent option in large leagues that use the flex position.
– The Dolphins shipped Greg Camarillo to the Vikings leaving Hartline fighting for Brandon Marshall’s leftovers with Davone Bess and a pair of undrafted rookie free agents. Will go overlooked in most redraft leagues but he shouldn’t.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 4:55 am
 The Baltimore Ravens continued their efforts to rebuild their talent base at wide receiver, signing Seattle Seahawks castoff T.J. Houshmandzadeh to a one-year contract.
The signing comes on the heels of the offseason trade for Anquan Boldin and the free agent signing of Donte Stallworth. With Mark Clayton subsequently being dealt to the St. Louis Rams, the Ravens have turned over half of their depth chart at wide receiver since the end of the 2009 season.
Reports indicate the 32-year old Houshmandzadeh will sign a one-year contract for the veteran minimum.
Despite signing a lucrative free agent contract with Seattle during the 2009 offseason, Houshmandzadeh was let go by new head coach Pete Carroll despite the team’s lack of proven players at the position. He had 79 receptions for 911 yards and three touchdowns in his only season in Seattle.
With Stallworth expected to be out for the first five or six weeks of the regular season with a broken foot, Houshmandzadeh provides the Ravens with veteran insurance behind Boldin and Derrick Mason. The Ravens also have third-year player Marcus Smith and rookie fifth-round pick David Reed at the position.
Known more for his route running ability, good hands and willingness to go over the middle, Houshmandzadeh is a possession receiver at this point of his career. He has averaged just 10.5 yards per reception over the last three years.
Fantasy Impact
Houshmandzadeh’s prospects in Baltimore are clearly less favorable than being the number one receiver in Seattle were he shaped up as a WR3 in most formats. But in Baltimore, he is waiver wire fodder in all leagues other than extremely deep leagues that utilize the flex position. His signing has more fantasy implications for Baltimore’s other offensive players than for Houshmandzadeh himself.
Quarterback Joe Flacco, a high quality fantasy backup with upside prior to the signing, should move up draft boards a couple of positions with Housh on board. He gains an excellent option on third downs and should help the Ravens keep drives alive. Houshmandzadeh is also an excellent receiver in the red zone, although the Ravens favor running the ball when inside the 20-yard line. Flacco moves up to borderline fantasy starter.
Boldin and Mason should be dropped a few notches at wide receiver. In effect, Boldin, Mason and Houshmandzadeh are all very similar receivers with each player better at running short and intermediate routes at this point in their careers.
Boldin is clearly entrenched as the Ravens top player at the position so his fantasy outlook isn’t impacted as much as Mason’s. Mason figures to come off the field when the Ravens want to target Houshmandzadeh and he may see far fewer targets in the red zone.
Boldin and Houshmandzadeh are excellent red zone receivers, with Boldin using his strength and cutting ability to find the end zone and Houshmandzadeh relying on his height on fades and size on quick slants.
Therefore, the biggest fantasy loser with the Houshmandzadeh signing is Derrick Mason.
By: Dave Stringer — September 7, 2010 @ 11:43 pm
 Looking to bolster a wide receiver depth chart lacking proven playmakers and veteran experience, the St. Louis Rams have acquired Mark Clayton from the Baltimore Ravens. ESPN reports the Rams gave up a 2011 sixth-round draft pick in exchange for Clayton and the Ravens seventh-round pick in 2011.
Clayton became expendable when the Ravens signed former Seahawk and Bengal receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh to a one-year contract over the weekend.
The acquisition of Clayton replenishes the talent base at wide receiver for the Rams and provides the team with a solid replacement for Donnie Avery, who suffered a torn ACL and is out for the year. Clayton possesses excellent speed and is a talented player whose production has yet to match his abilities.
In St. Louis, Clayton figures to quickly ascend up the depth chart and should be amongst the team’s top three receivers as soon as he learns the playbook. He will compete for playing time with Laurent Robinson, Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson. The Rams also have rookie fourth-round pick Mardy Gilyard, Keenan Burton and Dominique Curry on the roster.
While the Rams previously stated that Amendola would replace Avery in the starting line-up, he is better suited to the slot where he can utilize his quickness. Gibson had a disappointing preseason, largely the result of a hamstring injury that caused him to miss significant time.
Clayton enjoyed a breakout season in 2006, catching 67 passes for 939 yards and five touchdowns. However, he failed to build on that season and his reception totals dropped in each of the last three years, from 48 to 41 to 34 in 2009.
Fantasy Outlook
In Baltimore, Clayton was cast as a deep threat with Derrick Mason running short and intermediate routes. However, in the Rams version of the west coast offense, Clayton will be used on more short and intermediate routes and his reception totals should increase.
Look for Clayton to earn the starting spot opposite Robinson given the Rams preference to have Amendola play out of the slot and the team’s other options at the position.
Gilyard struggled in the preseason and is also better suited to the slot. Gibson and Burton are best suited to playing outside but neither player has the pedigree or playmaking ability that Clayton possesses.
While it’s hard to get excited about a wide receiver coming to a team that struggled as bad on offense as the Rams did in 2010 and who will be starting a rookie quarterback, Clayton’s fantasy prospects shouldn’t be dismissed.
He has an opportunity to earn significant playing time and the Rams figure to be behind early and often so Clayton will earn garbage time fantasy points in 2010. His fantasy outlook was persona non grata in Baltimore but in St. Louis, he has the potential to be a solid backup for your fantasy squad with decent upside.
By: Mike MacGregor — September 5, 2010 @ 9:10 am
It might seem excessive to argue about fantasy backup quarterbacks, especially when neither side is touting a player as “must have.” Then again, this is the thick of fantasy football draft season. What better time is there to go for excess. RapidDraft.com’s Matt Schauf went to the panel of Mikes at FFToday.com about the site’s low ranking for Matt Moore and found Mike MacGregor willing to back it up.
Schauf: Hey Mike, quick question: I’m going through your site’s QB rankings right now and am just wondering if you remember that the Carolina Panthers are still in the league? Oh, wait, just found Matt Moore buried way down at 28th … beyond Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart (guess that’s about to change), Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Josh Freeman and I guess just about everyone else. I’m ready to state my case for Moore once again, but first let me ask: Did he used to steal Mike Krueger’s lunch money in school?
MacGregor: Mike Krueger always seemed like more of a brown-bag lunch guy to me instead of buying his lunch at the cafeteria. As far as I know he has no personal vendetta against Matt Moore, but we just think he is a subpar QB option, fantasy and otherwise. In terms of receiving options Moore has Steve Smith and … and … and not much. The Panthers have a potentially great running game and a decent enough defense. Even if Moore had more than one above average receiver, there is little need or opportunity for him to pass enough to accumulate worthwhile passing stats. If a game manager is what you are looking for in a fantasy QB, by all means, Moore is your man.
Schauf: Smith alone gives Moore more (smooth sentence construction) at receiver than at least Campbell, Orton and Freeman among those guys I mentioned above, and he has seemed to be plenty for Moore to this point. Between two separate NFL seasons (last year and 2007), Moore has started eight games and produced 1,554 yards, 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions in only 205 pass attempts. Without adjusting the number of passes up (because every team but the Jets attempted well more than the 410 that would project to over 16 games), the numbers come out to 3,108 yards, 22 touchdowns and six picks over a full season.
Now, I’m not saying we can simply take that projection and put it forth as the expectation for Moore’s first full season of starting, but it does tell us plenty. It tells us that Moore performed WAY better than the erratic veteran he finally replaced (and that began late in 2007, when Moore was an undrafted rookie). It tells us that he has been more protective of the ball than can reasonably be expected of any young quarterback. The next time he throws two interceptions in an NFL game will be the first. We’re talking about fantasy backups here, and in that spot, I’m looking for a guy who can give me a good game while also not presenting the risk that he’ll lose me the week with three picks. That’s Matt Moore.
MacGregor: So you want a QB afraid to take chances and throw it down the field more than once in a blue moon? I thought you were more of a risk taker than that. Personally I’d rather a QB who is going to attempt closer to 30 passes a game (i.e. Campbell, Orton, Freeman) than less than 20 (Moore). Steve Smith isn’t that much better he can help Moore put up stats equivalent to these other guys on ten fewer pass attempts on average.
And about the superior receiving talent at Moore’s disposal versus the law firm of Campbell, Orton and Freeman, I disagree with that. It really is Steve Smith and nothing on the Panthers depth chart. The jury is out on rookie Brandon LaFell. The Raiders and Broncos at least offer up decent receiving options for the QB, between McFadden, Miller, Murphy, Moreno, Buckhalter, Gaffney and Royal. I’ll admit, the Bucs receivers short of Winslow and Caddy leave a lot to be desired, but Freeman makes up for it making plays with his legs. Matt Moore? Moore had twelve rushing attempts last year for minus three yards. Yep, he’s a statue back there.
Schauf: If it’s more downfield action you need, then might I interest you in a quarterback who finished 2009 with more yards per attempt than Kurt Warner, Joe Flacco and the three passers we both just mentioned, as well as at least a full yard more per attempt than Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan? Perhaps you’d prefer the guy who produced six pass plays of 40 yards or more, which tied or beat half of the 32 qualified quarterbacks in the league last year, despite not qualifying himself? (“Qualifying” means having thrown at least one pass in at least 14 games, the league standard to qualify for passer-rating rankings.)
I can’t argue that Carolina will throw a whole lot. It won’t. And I won’t talk up Moore’s rushing. I will, however, point out that of quarterbacks 13-24 in total points last year (backups in 12-team leagues), six failed to score a rushing touchdown. Running certainly helps, but I won’t overrate it. What helps more is touchdown throws, and my simple projection for Moore based on previous starts comes to 22 of those over a full season in just 410 pass attempts. That would’ve tied him for 13th in the league last year, and 410 attempts is even fewer than the Panthers tried while finishing last in the league in that category in 2008. All told, even if you don’t expect 22 touchdowns, it seems pretty clear that level is at least realistic.
Now, in RapidDraft scoring, we have no negative points. So, interceptions don’t matter. Of course, in leagues where they do, the aforementioned ball safety would have to make one more comfortable with inserting Moore for a week here and there.
MacGregor: My point on the rushing, or Moore’s lack of rushing, was a counterpoint in reference to you comparing Moore favorably to Josh Freeman.
Okay, so what we’ve concluded here is that Moore doesn’t throw a lot of passes. He will chuck it down field you say, or at least did in a small sample size of games in which defenses had little background from which to game plan for this guy, and teams likely took the Panthers for granted since they were so dismal and out of the playoff race thanks to their early season swoon. He has one legitimate receiving threat.
Surprisingly, you haven’t even countered that the RB pairing of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are decent pass catchers, to which I would say they are okay. About average. Can we expect 500 yards combined from these guys? If I generously (very generously) give Steve Smith his career best 1,500, Moore needs to carve out another 1,000 yards amongst a rookie and some very mediocre receiving talent just to get to a mundane 3,000 yards. I see no upside with this guy and a struggle to be even a low-end backup (top-24 QB).
You know, I think you should draft Moore this season. Enjoy looking for a better option than Moore off waivers every week as you’ll be constantly trying to replace him.
Schauf: Well, I’m certainly not touting Moore as the best backup option on the market but do think he makes immediate sense for owners of Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler and Eli Manning. Moore faces St. Louis when those three starters are on bye. Both matchups with New Orleans and Tampa could prove favorable as well, and overall, I think there’s some spot starter potential.
I’ve gone on long enough about a mid-level backup, though, so we’ll just have to see how he handles a fuller sample size.
Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for RapidDraft.com. Mike MacGregor is the creator of FF Today’s Cheatsheet Compiler and Draft Buddy software. Compete with them and nine other sets of Fantasy Pros in free fantasy football at RapidDraft.com for a guaranteed $100,000 grand prize.
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