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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — August 17, 2010 @ 9:44 am
 With their options at running back dwindling and the market for running backs heating up, the 49ers moved quickly to solidify the position, signing former Eagle Brian Westbrook.
The signing comes as a surprise as the 49ers had not had Westbrook in for a visit and he was reportedly mulling offers from division rival St. Louis, Denver and Washington over the past several weeks.
The Redskins were considered the front-runners given Westbrook’s relationship with quarterback Donovan McNabb and the team’s concerns over their group of aging running backs. St. Louis was also rumoured to have strong interest but Westbrook’s desire to play for a contending team ruled out the Rams.
With top backup Glen Coffee unexpectedly retiring, rookie sixth-round pick Anthony Dixon looking overwhelmed and the team not sold on former quarterback Michael Robinson at the position, the 49ers were forced to make a decision on Westbrook quickly. Credit their management with being proactive in acquiring a player of Westbrook’s pedigree on short notice.
Reports indicate the contract is for one year and will pay Westbrook $1.25-million and includes incentives equal to that amount.
The 30-year old Westbrook is coming off a season in which he suffered two concussions, causing him to miss eight games. He finished the season with 274 rushing yards and 181 receiving yards to go along with two touchdowns – easily his lowest production since his rookie season.
During his eight years in the league, the former Villanova product has amassed 5,992 rushing yards, 3,790 receiving yards and 66 touchdowns.
Although Westbrook has hit the dreaded 30-year-old mark for running backs (he will be 31 on opening day), he was productive when in the lineup in 2009, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. However, given his age and injury issues, he is clearly viewed as a backup capable of assuming a change of pace, receiving role and filling in as a starter.
Fantasy Impact
Westbrook is an intriguing player for fantasy purposes, given his history of production and ability to produce in a limited capacity as a receiving threat out of the backfield. The 49ers have surrounded quarterback Alex Smith with excellent young talent at the skill positions and along the offensive line which should allow Westbrook to put up reasonable production provided he can stay healthy.
The knock on Westbrook has been that he is injury prone, however, a closer look reveals that not to be the case. In his first seven years in the league, he played in 99 of 112 regular season games. Clearly, the concussion issue is a significant one but Westbrook is definitely worth taking a flier on in fantasy leagues and should be considered an essential handcuff for Frank Gore owners.
As for Gore, Westbrook is no threat to take his starting position. Clearly Westbrook is a more proven player than Dixon and his presence will likely cause Gore to lose some playing time but nothing that should concern his fantasy owners. Gore’s fantasy ranking should not drop as a result of team acquiring Westbrook.
When a veteran with a solid resume lands with a new team, the biggest fantasy loser is usually a player who is likely to lose playing time or even a roster spot. However, Dixon wasn’t expected to contribute in 2010 anyway and likely wouldn’t have received any significant playing time, barring a Gore injury.
Instead, Westbrook’s signing in San Francisco makes the Rams the biggest loser from a fantasy perspective. Once again, St. Louis figures to enter the season without a quality option backing up their best player, Steven Jackson. The fact Westbrook signed with a hated division rival only adds to the disappointment.
By: Dave Stringer — August 13, 2010 @ 8:29 am
As drafts and auctions are ramping up for leagues across North America, fantasy football fanatics are being inundated with information on how to pick their teams.
Some of it is useful, some of it is not. Some of it is boring, some of it is not.
This article has two of those four features. I leave it to you to decide which two they are.
1. Aaron Rodgers had 304 yards and five touchdowns rushing last year and the 60 fantasy points that provided is the reason why he was fantasy football’s top ranked quarterback.
2. There is no reason to suggest why he won’t accomplish both feats again in 2010.
 He's good. 3. Andre Johnson has topped 1,500 yards and eight touchdowns in each of the last two seasons.
4. I believe that the best predictor of future performance is past performance.
5. Larry Fitzgerald had the 15th most receiving yards in the league in 2009 but was the fourth-ranked fantasy wide receiver courtesy of his 13 touchdowns.
6. Kurt Warner retired and has been replaced by Matt Leinart.
7. Whereas Warner’s career completion percentage was 65.7% and his yards per attempt were 7.8, Leinart has compiled a completion rate of 57.1% to go along with an average yards per attempt of 5.6.
8. Reggie Wayne is 31 years old and only had 385 yards and two touchdowns during the last seven games of 2009.
9. Overall, I’m a lot more concerned about the top 15 fantasy wide receivers than I was last year.
10. The San Diego Chargers traded to move up in the first round of the NFL Draft in order to select Ryan Mathews and they have a very good offense.
11. I think Ryan Mathews will win the NFL’s Rookie Offensive Player of the Year award.
12. When the Buffalo Bills selected C.J. Spiller in the first round, Fred Jackson became the unqualified biggest fantasy loser from the NFL Draft.
13. I think C.J. Spiller will finish the year with 1,050 total yards and five touchdowns.
14. Amongst tight ends, Jason Witten had the second most receiving yards with 1,030 but finished tied with 17 other players for 25th most touchdowns with only two.
15. In seven seasons in the league, Witten has averaged fewer than four touchdowns per year.
16. The average size of the Cowboys top three wide receivers is just under 6’3” and 218 pounds.
17. Ronnie Brown has missed 20 games over five years and finished two of those years on injured reserve.
18. Ricky Williams is 33 years old and had his highest average yards per carry in 2009 to go along with the second most touchdowns of his career.
19. During the last 12 weeks of the 2009 season, Ray Rice had 42 redzone touches while Willis McGahee had 16.
20. McGahee had a surprising 146 fantasy points last year but 113 of them came in five games, including the first three games of the season. In one of my leagues, he was on the bench for all five of those games.
21. During the last four games of last season, Chris Wells had 14 red zone touches while Tim Hightower had six.
22. During his two years in the league, Tim Hightower has 96 receptions (63 last year) to go along with 18 touchdowns.
23. There are fantasy football leagues that award a point per reception.
24. Owen Daniels would have been the top ranked fantasy tight end in 2009 had an ACL injury not ended his season.
25. Of Jamaal Charles’ 189 fantasy points, 85 came in three games against the Bills, Browns and Broncos during weeks 14, 15 and 17.
26. The Chiefs signed Thomas Jones during the off-season.
27. Jerome Harrison did nothing for three years and 89 of his 150 fantasy points came in three games against the Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars.
28. The Browns drafted Montario Hardesty in the second round and general manager Tom Heckert said he views Hardesty as a feature back.
29. I am always sceptical of running backs who get a large portion of their fantasy points either at the end of the season or in a few games against weak opposition.
30. I am a Rams fan and think that Steven Jackson is the third best running back in the league. Despite that, I can tell you that there are at least seven running backs I will take instead of him because they will have more touchdown opportunities in 2010.
31. Hakeem Nicks had 115 fantasy points on only 74 targets, ranking him fifth in that category (of players with at least 40 targets). That means he’s a big play waiting to happen and assures the Giants will use him more in 2010.
32. Average fantasy points per target is a statistic that you’re going to hear a lot about in the future, especially in articles focusing on dynasty/keeper leagues.
33. Jermichael Finley had 97 fantasy points in 13 games and averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game over the last five games of the 2009 season.
 34. Mike Wallace had an exceptional rookie year with 756 yards and six touchdowns.
35. Ben Roethlisberger had the third most fantasy points per game amongst quarterbacks last year.
36. The Steelers traded Santonio Holmes to the New York Jets.
37. The Steelers threw the ball 536 times in 2009 while the Jets threw it a league low 393 times. That’s a difference of 143 or 8.9 fewer attempts per game.
38. Visanthe Shiancoe has caught 18 touchdown passes over the last two years but has never topped 600 yards receiving.
39. With Ben Tate out with a hamstring injury, Arian Foster has been in as the first string Texans running back.
40. The Houston Texans will have an outstanding offense in 2010.
41. The Baltimore Ravens ran 128 plays in the red zone last year and 95 of them were runs and 33 were passes.
42. Of the 8,004 fantasy points the top-30 ranked fantasy quarterbacks combined to score, 31.1% of those points came on touchdown passes.
43. Joe Flacco didn’t get a lot of chances to throw touchdown passes last year and the Ravens aren’t about the abandon their run game in the red zone in 2010.
44. Most people think Greg Olsen is a talented tight end but no tight end in a Mike Martz offense has ever topped 380 yards.
45. Mike Martz is a stubborn man.
46. People tend to think of Devery Henderson as a solid deep threat but he has 16 touchdown receptions over the last five years (excluding his rookie season when he played one game).
47. Robert Meachem scored nine touchdowns in 2009, the first year he received extended playing time.
48. The Seahawks have tried desperately this offseason to replace Julius Jones as the team’s lead running back including trading for an out-of-shape LenDale White and an injured Leon Washington.
49. If I don’t think a team likes a player, then I don’t like relying on those players for my fantasy teams, especially in dynasty leagues.
50. At times, I have had to go against my own advice but I will not rely on Jones in 2010 (repeat ten times).
51. Justin Forsett had four games with 10 or more carries and accumulated 397 rushing yards in those games while averaging 6.3 yards per carry.
52. I like Forsett based on his current ADP of 6.01.
53. Coaches tend to talk up their players when there is a roster deficiency in order to drive down the trade value of players they are interested in. The Seahawks Pete Carroll sure has been talking up Forsett this summer and the Bills sure would like to trade Marshawn Lynch (despite what they’re saying).
54. The teams in the NFC North have to face the teams in the NFC East and the AFC East, which makes the Bears, Lions, Packers and the Vikings losers from a scheduling perspective.
55. The teams in the AFC West get to face the teams in the NFC West and the AFC South, which makes the Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers winners from a scheduling perspective.
56. Most of Eddie Royal’s 2009 targets came on short passes yet he caught only 46.8% of his targets whereas Brandon Marshall had more deep targets and caught 65.6% of his targets.
57. Brandon Marshall was traded to the Miami Dolphins.
58. There is a reason why the Denver Broncos drafted Demaryius Thomas in the first round and Eric Decker in the third round.
59. Now you know what that reason was.
60. During his three years as the Texans starter, Matt Schaub has started 11 games twice and 16 games once.
61. I believe in the law of averages (so should you).
62. As a rookie, Mohamad Massaquoi led the Browns with 624 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
63. Massaquoi caught 35.8% of his targets ranking him 94th amongst wide receivers with at least 40 targets.
64. I don’t think that was entirely because of the quarterback play in Cleveland last year.
65. Roy Williams caught 44% of his targets in 2009.
66. The Dallas Cowboys drafted Dez Bryant in the first round of the NFL Draft.
67. Pierre Garcon caught 51% of his targets last year. Austin Collie caught 67% of his targets and Anthony Gonzalez caught 72% of his targets during his first two years in the league.
68. Peyton Manning connected on 72.2% of his targets to players not named Pierre Garcon.
69. Quarterbacks like to throw to receivers who catch the ball, especially really good ones like Peyton Manning and Tony Romo.
70. Tony Gonzalez and Greg Olsen tied for the most red zone touches amongst tight ends with Brent Celek finishing third.
71. The Falcons, Bears and Eagles failed to acquire a big wide receiver during the offseason (or more accurately, none who are expected to contribute in 2010).
72. Reggie Bush’s touches have declined three straight years, hitting 117 last year.
73. In any situation, success is a function of opportunity, ability and motivation.
74. Fantasy success cannot be achieved with minimal opportunity and is rarely achieved by players with declining opportunities.
75. At the end of all of my job interviews, I finish by stating that success requires three components – ability, motivation and opportunity, if you can provide the opportunity then I will provide the ability and motivation. This applies to fantasy football as well.
76. Brandon Pettigrew had 5 receptions for 165 yards and two touchdowns in the three games before he suffered a season-ending knee injury.
77. The Lions traded for Tony Scheffler during the offseason.
78. Panthers quarterback Matt Moore and wide receiver Steve Smith connected 20 times for 378 yards and three touchdowns in the four games they started together.
79. I don’t think Jimmy Clausen is going to unseat Moore in 2010.
 What 80. LaDainian Tomlinson’s current ADP is 9.10.
81. Tomlinson backs up Shonn Greene, who had 541 rushing yards as a rookie.
82. The Jets ran the ball far more than any team in the NFL last year.
83. I like veteran running backs backing up largely unproven players playing in offenses that run heavily.
84. There are plenty of backup running backs being drafted before LaDainian Tomlinson.
85. I don’t know why that is.
86. Michael Bush of the Raiders has received 15 or more touches in six games over the course of his career.
87. He has averaged 122 total yards in those six games.
88. Darren McFadden of the Raiders has received 15 or more touches in five games over the course of his career.
89. He has averaged 93 total yards in those five games.
90. The current average draft positions for Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis are 1.06, 4.06 and 5.03 yet Alex Smith’s ADP is 12.03.
91. Alex Smith averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game during the eleven games he received extensive playing time last year.
92. I don’t know why Alex Smith isn’t being viewed as a sleeper at quarterback.
93. Ryan Grant is the undisputed lead running back for the Green Bay Packers.
94. The Packers had an explosive offense in 2009 and figure to have one again this year.
95. Ryan Grant’s is currently being taken 13th overall amongst running backs.
96. Marcedes Lewis has increased his yardage total every year but has never scored more than two touchdowns.
97. You have not read anything yet about kickers.
98. You have not read anything yet about defenses.
99. That’s because there’s no point wasting your time guessing how kickers and defenses will perform. Use the last two selections in your draft or your last two auction dollars to fill these positions.
100. If you liked this article, then you should check back regularly for fantasy tips and advice to help you win your league.
By: Dave Stringer — August 3, 2010 @ 8:26 pm
 There’s a new sheriff in Washington and he brought a new quarterback in to town to run the show. After a disappointing two-year run with Jim Zorn as head coach, flashy Redskins owner Daniel Snyder jettisoned him in the offseason and hired former Bronco coach Mike Shanahan to run football operations at Redskins Park.
Not long after, Shanahan engineered a trade to acquire perennial Pro Bowler Donovan McNabb from the Eagles for a 2009 second-round pick and either a third- or fourth-round pick in the 2011 draft. In June, the wheeling and dealing continued with the acquisition of former Saints left tackle Jammal Brown, giving the Redskins the potential for two solid starters at offensive tackle in Brown and 2010 first-round pick Trent Williams.
The moves figure to plug the main holes on offense, where the team suffered in 2009 because of poor blocking along the offensive line and a lack of big plays from quarterback Jason Campbell.
Shanahan brings an impressive array of offensive credentials to Washington. In Denver, his teams often featured great performances from running backs taken in the lower rounds of the draft as well as solid passing production, using plenty of roll-outs in his version of the West Coast offense. Despite his advancing age, McNabb remains a reasonably mobile player and figures to fit perfectly into Shanahan’s offensive system, which closely resembles the offense Andy Reid runs in Philadelphia.
At running back, the Redskins feature a trio of aging veteran runners. Incumbent starter Clinton Portis enters training camp as the prohibitive favorite to win the starting job. He struggled in 2009—suffering through an ankle injury and then a concussion that ended his season—finishing with career lows in rushing (494 yards) and touchdowns (only one).
Larry Johnson and Willie Parker were signed during the offseason to compete with Portis for playing time. Despite the presence of three veteran runners, none of them are considered excellent pass receivers, so whoever wins the starting role could see plenty of touches, by default, in 2010.
The Redskins remain interested in signing former Eagle Brian Westbrook, and his presence would likely result in the release of one or both of Johnson and Parker.
While McNabb is a nice fit at quarterback to run Shanahan’s offense, there is a lack of proven playmaking ability at wide receiver. Santana Moss is coming off a down year in 2009, in which he finished with 902 yards and only three touchdowns. His yards per reception has declined in each of the last five years, going from 18.6 in 2004 to 12.9 last season. Further complicating his outlook for 2010 is the offseason knee surgery he had and his name being linked to the Canadian doctor charged with providing athletes with human growth hormone.
Third-year receivers Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly will compete for the starting spot opposite Moss. However, both players have been disappointments thus far in their career.
The Redskins are loaded at tight end with Chris Cooley and Fred Davis manning the position. With Cooley out for nine games with an ankle injury, Davis played surprisingly well last year and is considered the team’s future at the position.
The Redskins offense figures to reach new heights in 2010 with the additions of Shanahan, McNabb, Brown, and Williams. However, the team will need rebound performances from their aging veteran runners and Moss—as well as another player to step up at receiver. Look for the Redskins to struggle on offense during the first few weeks of the year and to improve as the season progresses. Shanahan doesn’t seem to have enough parts in place to turn the Redskins into an offensive juggernaut during his first year in Washington.
QB Donovan McNabb
McNabb had another solid season in 2009, finishing the year with over 3,500 passing yards and 22 touchdowns in just 14 starts with the Eagles. In Philadelphia, McNabb enjoyed the benefit of perhaps the league’s top young group of offensive skill position players. However, the Redskins offense features a number of aging veterans and yet-unproven youngsters at the skill positions. In addition, the Eagles ran a pass-heavy version of the West Coast offense, whereas Mike Shanahan’s version features far more emphasis on the running game. Simply put, McNabb will be hard pressed to match his production over the last few years during his first year in Washington. He enters the season as a borderline fantasy starter without much upside considering the Redskins offensive issues. There’s no getting around the fact there is a big drop-off in the talent surrounding him in Washington.
RB Clinton Portis
New head coach Mike Shanahan’s teams have a history of running the ball successfully, and although Portis wasn’t great last year before being injured, he wasn’t as bad as advertised. He had 494 rushing yards (averaging 4.0 per carry) during the team’s first seven games before suffering a concussion. Portis has earned the reputation of an aging, injury-prone player, but he will be 29 at the beginning of the season and didn’t miss a game through 2007 and 2008. He enters the year motivated to prove he has some gas left in the tank and to justify the large salary owed to him over the balance of his contract. Reports out of Washington indicate that he’s dropped 12 pounds in order to better fit into the team’s new zone blocking scheme. While that will help his cause, Portis will need to show some explosiveness to retain his starting position. Over the last couple of years, he has become more of an inside runner than the slasher he was earlier in his career. Nonetheless, Shanahan will run plenty in 2010, and Portis isn’t getting any fantasy love; so if there’s one Redskins player to gamble on, perhaps he is that guy.
RB Larry Johnson
Johnson signed with the Redskins in the offseason after being released by the Chiefs and finishing 2009 backing up Cedric Benson in Cincinnati. He has been promised a chance to start but will enter training camp second on the depth chart behind Clinton Portis. Provided he can supplant Portis, Johnson has the opportunity to have a bounce-back season in 2010. However, he looked old and slow for much of last year and will need to re-dedicate himself in order to earn significant playing time. Monitor the Redskins backfield situation in training camp and draft Johnson accordingly. The most likely scenario has Johnson earning a spot backing up Portis; and if that transpires, Johnson is worth taking a late-round flier on in your fantasy drafts.
RB Willie Parker
Having lost his starting job in Pittsburgh to Rashard Mendenhall, Parker landed with the Redskins as a free agent this offseason. Despite being just 29, he seems to have lost a step and will have a difficult time cracking the Redskins roster. With Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson on board and former Bronco Ryan Torain providing younger legs at the position, Parker may be on the outside looking in on opening day. The Redskins are unlikely to keep more than three running backs on the roster, and the odds of them keeping three aging ones seems remote. Unless Parker can unseat Johnson, or an injury strikes at the position, Parker will likely be in a different uniform or out of the league in 2010. Don’t waste a roster spot on him.
WR Santana Moss
Moss struggled in 2009 but has a chance to have a solid season this year with Donovan McNabb installed as the Redskins new starting quarterback. While Moss figures to get an opportunity to produce in 2010, there are serious questions about whether he will make the most of that opportunity. Was his lack of big plays (three touchdowns, 12.9 yards per reception, one 100-yard game) the result of poor quarterback play? Or is Moss simply slowing at thirty-one years of age? If it’s the latter, expect a fast decline in his play, since smaller wide receivers have more difficulty extending their careers. However, the more likely scenario is that Moss will produce another bounce-back season, continuing his history of following up a poor season with a good one. He figures to benefit from some garbage-time production on a Redskins squad that will need its defense to come up big in order to remain competitive. Draft Moss as a mid-tier WR3, but one who has upside as a WR2, provided he hasn’t lost a step. As is usually the case with Moss, the reward is there, but there’s plenty of risk as well.
WR Devin Thomas
It’s nice that Donovan McNabb is in town as Thomas enters his third season in the league, but it’s not so nice that the new Redskins management is loading up on journeyman, retread wide receivers. Despite having a pair of third-year players in Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, the Redskins added Bobby Wade and Joey Galloway as training camp approached—not exactly a sign of confidence in their youngsters. Of the two younger players, Thomas is the one worth taking a flier on, but he’s certainly not worth reaching for. Monitor his production in the preseason and move him up if it’s warranted. As it stands, he’s nothing more than a late-round pick in standard leagues.
WR Malcolm Kelly
Kelly hasn’t done much in two years, and the knock on him is that he doesn’t use his size to his advantage. With new head coach Mike Shanahan on board, Kelly gets a fresh start. But there are valid concerns that his attitude may get in the way of his making the most of the opportunity. At this point, Kelly shapes up as a backup on the outside, unless he can nail down the playbook in the slot as well. Given his prior lack of motivation, that seems improbable. This is likely his last year to pull it together. Kelly isn’t worth drafting in anything other than deep leagues.
TE Chris Cooley
Cooley is coming off a season in which he suffered an ankle injury that cost him all but seven games. He is a talented player and, at age twenty-seven, should bounce back. The Redskins have upgraded the talent at quarterback with Donovan McNabb, but Fred Davis is breathing down Cooley’s neck, courtesy of the solid production he had once he was inserted into the starting lineup when Cooley went down. Expect Cooley to retain the job, but Davis is too good not to be utilized. Cooley’s ankle injury from last season is of no concern in 2010 but, given Davis’ production last year, his number of touches is.
TE Fred Davis
Davis stepped into the lineup for an injured Chris Cooley and put up surprisingly solid production as the team’s starting tight end. During the final six games of the season, Davis averaged nearly 10 fantasy points per game, courtesy of 25 receptions for 286 yards and five touchdowns. Davis played too well last year to be relegated to a strict backup role, especially considering the Redskins question marks at wide receiver. While his upside is limited in 2010 unless Cooley gets hurt again, he is a solid prospect in dynasty leagues.
By: Dave Stringer — August 2, 2010 @ 9:52 am
 A new era begins for the Eagles in 2010. Gone is veteran team leader Donovan McNabb, traded to division rival Washington to make way for Kevin Kolb at quarterback.
Despite all the criticism he received both from Eagles fans and around the league, there should be little dispute that McNabb’s accomplishments far exceeded his reputation in Philadelphia. Kolb is sure to feel the wrath of Eagles fans if he can’t step in and produce the way McNabb had in years past.
Even so, Kolb enters an enviable situation with an Eagles team that features a stalwart offensive line and a young, solid cast of players at the skill positions. Eagles head coach Andy Reid uses a version of the West Coast offense that is heavy on pass plays, and he is not expected to tone down the playbook for his new quarterback. Look for the Eagles to throw just as much in 2010 as in previous years and for Kolb to emerge as one of the league’s better young quarterbacks.
The team is deep at wide receiver with DeSean Jackson—a superstar in the making—entering his third year in the league. Jackson is a highlight reel waiting to happen, and he had more big plays than any wide receiver in the league last year. Kolb and Jackson will need to develop chemistry on deep balls if Jackson is to repeat that performance in 2009.
Jeremy Maclin starts opposite Jackson, and while he isn’t as dynamic, he has the talent to become one of the league’s top number two receivers in short order. Jason Avant is the team’s third wide receiver but could start for many other teams in the league. Although he isn’t a burner, Avant has a knack for getting open, and he doesn’t drop many balls.
Brent Celek had an outstanding season in 2009, emerging as one of the league’s top pass-catching tight ends. He was a favorite of McNabb’s in the red zone and was Kolb’s favorite target during his two starts last season. The Eagles are expecting another big season from Celek in 2010.
The running load will be handled mostly by second-year player LeSean McCoy. McCoy had a decent rookie season, and the team hopes he can take another step forward and match former Eagle Brian Westbrook’s production. While McCoy is a decent prospect, that expectation may be a bit of stretch, particularly in 2010. Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver will back up McCoy. Both players are big backs who like to run between the tackles.
While the Eagles are loaded on offense, the defense has more question marks. Other than defensive end Trent Cole and cornerback Asante Samuel, the team lacks playmakers on defense. Some would even dispute Samuel’s reputation as a top defender, given his propensity for getting burned due to his frequent gambles for big plays and his poor tackling ability.
The Eagles shouldn’t be considered a rebuilding team, nor are they truly in a reloading phase in 2010. While expectations in Philadelphia are high, it is worth noting that first-year starters at quarterback often struggle to close out games. In a division as competitive as the NFC East, blowing even a single game can translate into the loss of a playoff spot.
QB Kevin Kolb
Kolb enters training camp as the hot, high-upside quarterback for fantasy purposes, but by the time your fantasy draft rolls around, his sleeper status will likely be well known. Leading up to the start of the season, look for fantasy pundits to routinely compare him to Aaron Rodgers in his first year as a starter. Kolb topped 300 passing yards in both of his starts last season and figures to benefit from a solid supporting cast. With a stout offensive line and perhaps the league’s top group of young skill position players, Kolb enters an enviable situation as a first-year starter in Philadelphia. He is a bit of a risk due to his lack of playing time but also possesses major upside and is a great option for dynasty leagues. He is also a great option this season as a low-end starter in redraft leagues.
RB LeSean McCoy
Brian Westbrook is gone and McCoy will take over in 2010 as the team’s starting running back. The question is whether he has the ability to produce the way Westbrook did. McCoy looked a bit pedestrian as a runner during his rookie season, averaging 4.1 yards per carry on 155 carries. He was more effective as a receiver, with 40 receptions for 308 yards. At 5’10” and 198 pounds, McCoy is a smaller back, but he isn’t a blazer and didn’t produce many big plays as a rookie. While he will receive the majority of the team’s touches at the position, he will likely relinquish the short-yardage work to Mike Bell or Leonard Weaver, which limits his upside. In addition, look for Bell and Weaver to be used late in games when the Eagles are looking to close out the contest. McCoy figures to have a solid season, but there is a good chance he will be drafted higher than he should be. Keep him on your radar, but don’t overpay for a player who will likely be an upper-tier fantasy backup at season’s end.
RB Mike Bell
Bell comes over from the Saints after resurrecting his career in New Orleans last year. Considering his power running style, Bell figures to provide a solid compliment to the team’s starter LeSean McCoy, who is more of an outside runner. Bell will compete with hybrid fullback/running back Leonard Weaver for short yardage work but enters training camp as the favorite to win that role. Look for another 600-yard, 5- or 6-touchdown season, similar to his 2009 production with the Saints. McCoy owners will definitely want Bell on their fantasy rosters as a handcuff.
WR DeSean Jackson
Jackson was the most explosive big-play receiver in the league last year, finishing the season with nine touchdowns and an eye-popping average of 18.5 yards per reception. He topped 1,000 yards in his second season, finishing the year with 1,156. Jackson is clearly still developing at receiver, and because of that he possesses major upside. Still, banking on him to produce the same number of big plays in 2010 as he had in 2009 is risky, so his fantasy ranking should be based more on continued improvement as a receiver on short and intermediate patterns. Given his production during his first two years in the league, it seems a safe bet that improvement will occur in 2010. The trade of Donovan McNabb to the Redskins affects his value only minimally, as Kevin Kolb seems ready to emerge at quarterback. The question with Jackson is about value. If somebody in your league thinks he’s ready to emerge as a top five receiver, let them reach for Jackson. If you can get him as a bottom-tier WR1, the value is there.
WR Jeremy Maclin
Maclin played well as a rookie with the Eagles last year, posting 762 yards receiving and four touchdowns. He figures to take another step in his development during his second year in the league. Maclin has good speed and displayed some playmaking ability last year, averaging just under 14 yards per reception. He did suffer from a fair number of drops, however, including a couple that would have led to big plays. His upside is somewhat limited in 2010, since he will compete for touches with solid pass catchers DeSean Jackson, Jason Avant, and Brent Celek as well as with running backs LeSean McCoy, Mike Bell, and Leonard Weaver. Consider him a WR4 for fantasy purposes—but one of the more attractive ones, given his solid playmaking ability in an Eagles offense that will throw plenty in 2010.
WR Jason Avant
The Eagles love Avant and during this offseason signed him to a lucrative five-year contract to serve as the team’s top backup wide receiver. He is a big player and is able to use his size to his advantage. Avant excels at running crossing patterns, and his number is regularly called upon on third downs. While Avant’s production as a backup receiver was excellent (587 yards and three touchdowns), and while he has improved in each of his four years in the league, he has little to no chance of supplanting DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin for one of the team’s starting spots. That limits his potential in dynasty leagues and relegates him to waiver wire material in all but the deepest redraft leagues. However, should injury strike Jackson or Maclin, jump at your first chance to grab Avant.
TE Brent Celek
Let’s cut to the chase— Celek is a talented pass-catching tight end; he plays in a solid, pass heavy offense; and new quarterback Kevin Kolb loves throwing to him (208 yards and a touchdown during Kolb’s two starts last year). Celek built on his impressive late-season performance in 2008 to become the 4th-ranked fantasy tight end in 2009, with nearly 1,000 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. But for some reason he’s not getting the love, and many prognosticators have him ranked as a mid- to lower-tier option at tight end. That equals value since there’s no reason why he can’t duplicate his 2009 production in 2010. I’m on board, you should be too.
By: Dave Stringer — August 1, 2010 @ 1:54 pm
 The Giants were a tale of two teams in 2009. After starting the season 5-0, New York looked poised to win the NFC East. They stumbled badly, however, dropping the next four contests on the way to a 3-8 run over the team’s final 11 games.
The question in 2010 is which team was the real Giants? The offensive and defensive juggernaut of their first five games? Or the unit that couldn’t run the ball or stop anybody on defense over the balance of the season?
The Giants morphed into more of a passing team in 2009, relying on the arm of Eli Manning more than in previous seasons. Manning responded with a career year. Despite their passing prowess, the Giants need the running game to get back to the production it established in the 2007 and 2008 seasons.
Brandon Jacobs suffered through an injury-marred 2009 season. While injuries clearly played a part in his poor performance, he also changed his style, trying to make tacklers miss more often than in prior seasons. In 2010, look for the Giants coaching staff to get him to spend more time running over tacklers than running around them.
Ahmad Bradshaw figures to give Jacobs a stiff challenge for the team’s starting running back position. Bradshaw has shown plenty of playmaking ability as a backup in the past, but the team has been reluctant to move him into the starter’s role. If Jacobs doesn’t rebound, look for Bradshaw to get his first chance as a starter.
Steve Smith unexpectedly developed into a 1000-yard receiver and became Manning’s security blanket. Despite lacking elite skills, Smith caught 107 passes for 1,220 yards and seven touchdowns—production that no one foresaw as the season started.
Despite Smith’s excellent season, second year player Hakeem Nicks may have even more upside. Once given consistent targets, he began making big plays, although his hands were inconsistent at times. Mario Manningham also displayed excellent ability to gain separation but was inconsistent and dropped too many balls.
Tight end Kevin Boss is a serviceable receiver and a solid blocker in the run game. He has been a good red zone target when called upon, but he is too often ignored in the game plan. At this point, he seems to have reached his ceiling.
The Giants aren’t a team lacking in talent, but they may struggle to make the playoffs in a tough NFC East division. They are going to need a rebound performance from the team’s rushing attack and a more consistent pass rush if they hope to challenge the Cowboys for the division crown.
QB Eli Manning
With the team’s running game struggling through much of 2009, the Giants turned to Manning more in the passing game than in previous seasons, and the veteran signal caller responded with his finest season as a pro. He finished the year with career highs in passing yards (4,021), touchdowns (27), and completion percentage (62.3). Unlike some other teams that went pass heavy in 2009, there are a few rumblings coming out of New York indicating that the team wants to move to a more balanced approach on offense. Couple that with the fact there were no additions to the depth chart at running back, and there is reason to think they will run significantly more in 2010, meaning Manning has little chance to match or surpass his 2009 production in 2010. While there were no fancy additions to the team’s receiving corps in the draft, the Giants feature one of the league’s top trios of young receivers in Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham. Manning enters 2010 as a lower tier fantasy starter but as one with upside given the team’s reliance on the pass and the weapons he has at wide receiver.
RB Brandon Jacobs
Jacobs enters 2010 with something to prove considering his lack of production last season. While he managed to stay healthy for most of the year (missing only one game), he was a huge letdown, courtesy of a lingering knee injury that wasn’t disclosed until after the season ended. It seems that Jacobs is always either out with an injury or having to play through one. The knee injury from last season clearly slowed him down, as his touchdown production dropped from 15 to 5 and his yards per carry dropped from 5.0 to 3.7. Backup Ahmad Bradshaw is a talented player who could steal Jacobs’ starting job, but the coaching staff seems reluctant to give him a chance as a starter because of his off-the-field issues. Bradshaw has just one start during his three years in the league. With the Giants expected to have a solid offense, there is a good chance that Jacobs will be a great value pick in 2010 fantasy drafts and auctions. However, he should be drafted as no better than an RB3 with upside.
RB Ahmad Bradshaw
Bradshaw put up solid numbers with his increased workload in 2009, posting career highs in all significant rushing categories. He finished the year with 985 total yards to go along with seven touchdowns—not quite producing on the same level as former backup Derrick Ward. The key question is whether that workload was the result of Jacobs’ injury or Bradshaw’s effectiveness. With Jacobs at full health, does Bradshaw’s role get reduced? Or does the coaching staff finally give Bradshaw a legitimate chance as the team’s starter? Bradshaw is equally effective as a runner and receiver and has proven to be a solid short-yardage runner. He has excellent upside provided he can overtake Jacobs on the depth chart. There’s a good chance that will happen in 2010, with the Giants having morphed into more of a passing team over the past year.
WR Hakeem Nicks
Simply put, as a rookie in 2009, Nicks played like a younger, faster version of Anquan Boldin. With 47 receptions for 790 yards and six touchdowns last season, he totaled 115 fantasy points on only 74 targets, ranking him 5th in the league in fantasy points per target (minimum 45 targets). That key statistic indicates how explosive he is and ensures that the Giants will have him more involved in 2010. While Steve Smith will get the lion’s share of the work on intermediate patterns, look for Nicks to steal opportunities from Mario Manningham on the deep patterns. Of the Giants top three receivers, Nicks has the most upside but, in only his second year in the league, he may not surpass Smith’s fantasy production. Draft him as a low-end WR2 with upside.
WR Steve Smith
Smith came out of nowhere to become the 12th-ranked fantasy wide receiver in 2009. He developed chemistry with quarterback Eli Manning on short and intermediate patterns and also displayed some run-after-the-catch ability that wasn’t prevalent during his first two years in the league. He finished the year with 107 receptions (the most in team history) for 1,220 yards and seven touchdowns. Here’s the question: Do you believe? With talented youngsters Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham on board, there is a risk that Smith could see a reduced number of targets in 2010. Clearly more valuable in PPR leagues, Smith is nonetheless solid enough to be drafted as a WR2 in both standard and PPR formats.
WR Mario Manningham
Although he was an afterthought during his 2008 rookie season, Manningham had a solid second year in the league with 822 yards and five touchdowns. He did drop his fair share of balls, missing out on at least 200 yards and two or three touchdowns worth of production in the process. Despite his positive development, Manningham could be in line for a reduced workload in 2010. If Steve Smith is the real deal (which is more likely than not), then Manningham has limited upside given that Hakeem Nicks is all but guaranteed a starting spot. Manningham is definitely worth taking a flier on in the lower rounds of most fantasy drafts, but don’t take him on the assumption that his production will continue to increase during his third year in the league.
TE Kevin Boss
Somewhat surprisingly, the Giants failed to pick a tight end in this year’s draft, so Boss will almost certainly be the team’s starter at the position once again in 2010. While Boss has increased his yardage totals every year and has been a reasonably solid receiver given his number of opportunities, the team ignored him in the red zone for the first half of 2009. He did finish the year with five touchdowns over his last nine games, so it’s up to you to decide whether that was a mirage or whether it foreshadows fantasy glory in 2010. There are plenty of solid pass-catching tight ends in the league. If the Giants tend to ignore Boss for long stretches, maybe you should too.
By: Dave Stringer — July 31, 2010 @ 11:28 am
 Even though the Cowboys won the division crown in 2009 and were able to knock off the Eagles in the wildcard round, picking up their first playoff victory in 12 years in the process. Unfortunately, they crashed to earth the following week against the Vikings, getting crushed 34-3 in what was easily the team’s worst performance of the year.
While the Cowboys failed miserably that day, it wasn’t a fair measurement of the team as a whole. With the Super Bowl in Dallas this year, there is hope in the air that the Cowboys can make it to the big game, and they have the talent on both offense and defense to make that happen.
Quarterback Tony Romo played a more measured style of game in 2009 that served him and the Cowboys well. He toned down his gun slinging ways and had a career year for the team (although not for fantasy purposes). He cut back on his turnovers but still managed plenty of big plays, finishing the year with a career-high 4,483 passing yards.
The Cowboys added hotshot rookie receiver Dez Bryant in the first round of the draft to provide another weapon in the passing game. The only significant departure on offense was left tackle Flozell Adams, but the team is confident that Doug Free, who played well at right tackle subbing for Marc Colombo in 2009, is ready to step up. They also picked up Alex Barron from the Rams, essentially stealing him in return for reserve linebacker Bobby Carpenter.
Miles Austin ascended to the top of the depth chart in 2009, coming out of virtually nowhere to set the league on fire. He is a big, strong, fast wide receiver who seemed to catch everything in sight last year. Roy Williams had another disappointing season, and this will likely be his last year in Dallas, barring a major rebound.
Tight end Jason Witten was as steady as ever, topping 1,000 receiving yards for the second time in three years. He has averaged 1,042 yards over that stretch. Martellus Bennett backs him up, and he needs to step up his game in 2010. Bennett plays well in the preseason but tends to disappear when the regular season begins. That needs to change, or the Cowboys will look to replace him in 2011.
One area of focus for the Cowboys this season will be their performance in the red zone. Despite finishing with the 2nd most total yards on offense, they ranked just 14th in scoring with 22.6 points per game.
There are big expectations in Dallas, and the roster is loaded with the talent to back up those expectations. With the offense stacked at the skill positions and the defense hoping to take another step up after a solid performance in 2009, a Super Bowl berth is within the Cowboys’ grasp.
QB Tony Romo
Romo is coming off a season in which he finished as the 5th-ranked fantasy quarterback, averaging a solid 21.5 points per game. Since becoming the Cowboys starter at the midpoint of the 2006 seasons, he has averaged 268 passing yards per game and 1.9 passing touchdowns per game. During his stretch as a starter, he has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game in each of those seasons. Romo’s owners get solid, consistent production, and there is little reason to expect that to change in 2010. Despite his past accomplishments, Romo is never mentioned with the big four fantasy quarterbacks (Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers). He might not even be the fifth quarterback taken in many drafts. That translates into value. I’m on board, you should be too.
RB Felix Jones
Given the offseason comments emanating from Dallas, it appears that Jones will ascend to the starting running back role in 2010. Unfortunately, that won’t mean much if he can’t stay healthy. When he is indeed healthy, Jones has proven to be a dynamic playmaker capable of producing a big play at any time. With limited touches as a rookie, he averaged an astonishing 8.9 yards per carry (which dropped to 5.9 with more carries last year). What limits Jones’ upside is that Marion Barber will get the goal-line work when healthy, and Tashard Choice could even be the second option in the red zone if Barber goes down. Draft Jones as a low end RB2 or top-quality RB3 with upside.
RB Marion Barber
Barber had a second consecutive season of marginal production last year, finishing 2009 with 932 rushing yards, 221 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns. With Felix Jones emerging as a big-play option, Barber’s role as a receiver was reduced, and he recorded just 26 receptions after catching a combined 96 passes through 2007 and 2008. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has suggested more than once this offseason that Felix Jones deserves an opportunity to start, so it seems as if the Cowboys are convinced Barber’s future is that of a backup. At least he’s in a solid offense and figures to get the goal-line and game-closing work, a role he excelled at in 2006 and 2007. For all the criticism Barber gets in fantasy circles, he still managed to post a very respectable 10.5 fantasy points per game last year. Expect fewer yards but a similar amount of touchdowns in 2010, which would translate into RB3 status.
RB Tashard Choice
Choice had another solid season, displaying nifty footwork on his way to 481 total yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry and was also effective as a receiver, averaging 8.8 yards per reception. He has some ability to make tacklers miss but is not a burner, and his upside is likely that of a backup running back. In 2010, he will run the Cowboys version of the Wildcat but will probably need injuries to Felix Jones or Marion Barber to gain significant playing time. While he played well in his first two years, fantasy football is all about opportunity and there are no guarantees Choice will get much of them this season. He is waiver wire material in all but the deepest leagues.
WR Miles Austin
Austin was a fantasy revelation last year, bursting onto the scene with a 10-reception, 250-yard, 2-touchdown performance against the Chiefs in Week 5. He proved that was no fluke the following week against the Falcons, registering six receptions for 171 yards and two more touchdowns. Despite being barely used during the first four weeks of the season, Austin finished 2009 with 81 receptions for 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns. While the case could be made that the presence of first-round pick Dez Bryant will cut into Austin’s production, that doesn’t exactly add up. More likely, Bryant will eat into Roy Williams’ playing time, and that should not have much impact on Austin. Any time a player busts out like Austin did, they are a bit of a risk the following season. But Austin is obviously Tony Romo’s go-to guy in a solid offense. Having vaulted himself to the top of the Cowboys wide receiver depth chart, there’s no reason why he can’t duplicate his 2009 performance this year. Consider him a top-tier WR1.
WR Roy Williams
Here’s the thing: when you catch 44.2% of the passes thrown your way, your team may just use its first-round pick on a wide receiver to replace you and then your fantasy value may plummet—even if you were considered top 20 material the previous year. That sums up Williams’ predicament. In 2009, Williams averaged a respectable 6.8 fantasy points per game on 38 receptions for 596 yards and seven touchdowns, but expecting him to catch a touchdown pass every five receptions in 2010 is expecting the unlikely. Williams was probably drafted as a WR2 last year, making his production one of the biggest disappointments among wide receivers in 2009. Williams’ problems were many: he wasn’t on the same page as quarterback Tony Romo, his route running was poor, and he lost the ability to separate from defenders. Perhaps he’s spent his offseason studying the playbook, refining his route running, and getting in better shape. If you want to gamble on all that—along with his holding off hotshot rookie Dez Bryant—then grab him in your fantasy draft. Or maybe take the safer bet and grab somebody else.
WR Dez Bryant
The Cowboys moved up in the draft to grab Dez Bryant with the 24th pick. Bryant has Pro Bowl potential and the reports out of Dallas have been glowing. However, his recent ankle injury has put a temporary bump in the road for 2010. Byrant is schedule to miss most of preseason with a high ankle sprain and it’s questionable whether or not he will be ready to go Week 1. While wide receivers are notorious for not playing well in their rookie seasons, the evidence suggests Bryant may be the exception to that rule. The list of his positives is a long one. He is extremely talented, he is motivated by his draft position, he has the size to be a solid red zone target, and Roy Williams has been a bust. If he can beat out Williams by opening day, he moves way up. However, the expectation is that Williams will start in Week 1 with Bryant biding his time as a backup until part of the way through 2010. Don’t reach for Bryant in redraft leagues, but try to grab him before the final few rounds of your draft. Just be sure to have a veteran such as Derrick Mason to fill in during the first few weeks of the year. Bryant is the top rookie wide receiver in dynasty leagues, considering his huge upside in a solid Cowboys offense.
WR Patrick Crayton
Even though Crayton has been a loyal soldier of Jerry Jones in Dallas, it appears that the team doesn’t have a meaningful role for him in 2010. With Miles Austin coming off a breakout season, Roy Williams unlikely to be jettisoned after signing a big contract, and the team using its first-round pick on hotshot rookie Dez Bryant, Crayton will struggle to find playing time in Dallas. That being said, of all the Cowboys wide receivers, Crayton may be the best suited to play out of the slot—unless Kevin Ogletree steps up his game during the preseason. Crayton generally has a couple of solid games each year, but at number four on the depth chart, there isn’t much upside here. He might be useful in PPR leagues if he’s traded to another team prior to opening day.
TE Jason Witten
Witten had the 3rd most yards among tight ends last year with 1,030 but was only the 8th-ranked fantasy tight end due to his low touchdown total. It’s been a recurring theme for Witten over the last two years, as he finished 2009 with just two touchdowns after having only four in 2008. The Cowboys have shown a propensity to throw to their big wide receivers in the red zone, and the addition of rookie Dez Bryant could exacerbate this trend. In addition, they have an outstanding short-yardage runner in Marion Barber. With Bryant on board and with better health at running back, look for Witten to see fewer opportunities in 2010, resulting in a lower yardage total. Unless his touchdowns increase, his fantasy totals figure to drop this season. He’s definitely more useful in PPR leagues.
By: Dave Stringer — July 29, 2010 @ 3:43 pm
 The Vikings enter the 2010 season wondering what could have been. Despite outplaying the Saints by a wide margin in the 2009 NFC Championship Game, Minnesota came out on the short end, courtesy of five turnovers and quarterback Brett Favre’s inexplicable decision to throw across the field late in the game rather than running for what looked like a sure first down.
While the loss was a disappointing one, the Vikings have a solid chance to take the next step toward a Super Bowl appearance in 2010. The team retained all of its key free agents, losing only running back Chester Taylor and offensive lineman Artis Hicks, both of whom were backups.
The Vikings offense figures to remain explosive provided quarterback Brett Favre returns as expected. On defense, the Vikings feature one of the league’s top run defenses and perhaps the league’s top pass rusher in Jared Allen. While age is creeping up on a number of key defenders, the unit figures to remain a strength in 2010.
Favre had perhaps the best year of his career in 2009. He played error-free football, and wide receiver Sidney Rice emerged as a star with Favre under center. Second-year player Percy Harvin offers intriguing talents, giving the Vikings the potential to have two dynamic wide receivers for the next few years.
While the passing game is clearly solid, the Vikings offensive identity revolves around the running talents of Adrian Peterson. Peterson is the league’s most talented running back, equally capable of making defenders miss as of running them over. He sheds tacklers better than any player in the league and is a big play threat every time he touches the ball. However, he is still emerging as a runner and needs to work on his ball protection and pass receiving.
At tight end, Visanthe Shiancoe provides the receiving ability and Jim Kleinsasser is the mauler in the running game. While Shiancoe is a respectable blocker, his main strength is as a target in the red zone. He has 18 touchdowns on just 98 receptions over the last two years.
With a young Packers team expecting to take a step up this year and the Bears bringing in Mike Martz and Julius Peppers to work out the kinks, the Vikings will have a difficult time repeating as NFC North Champions in 2010. But with Favre under center and Peterson running the ball, Minnesota has a chance to hold off the rest of the division and repeat their 2009 success.
QB Brett Favre
Will he or won’t he? We’re not even going to go there since it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll be back for a second season with the Vikings. After finishing as the 6th-ranked fantasy quarterback last year courtesy of 4,202 passing yards and 33 touchdowns—and a career-low seven interceptions—there is little doubt that the forty-year-old Favre has a lot left to offer in Minnesota. Because young receivers Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin are still emerging talents and Bernard Berrian suffered through an injury-plagued 2009 season, it is hard to predict that Favre will be able to duplicate last year’s performance. He is coming off ankle surgery performed in May and, although he hasn’t missed a start in his career, the odds of injury increase as a player gets older—even with Favre. Consider him a low-end starting quarterback for fantasy purposes. Hopefully he signs with the Vikings before your fantasy draft.
RB Adrian Peterson
Peterson was a bit of a disappointment in 2009 with 1,819 total yards and 18 touchdowns. Furthermore, his 1,383 rushing yards were significantly lower than his 2008 output, when he finished with 1,760 yards on the ground. While he may not be the consensus top-ranked running back for fantasy purposes, he does remain the best bet to land within the top three fantasy running backs in 2010, considering his size and the Vikings powerful offense. His ranking would have received a blow had the Vikings taken a solid pass-catching back, such as Jahvid Best, in the draft. However, second round pick Toby Gerhart isn’t such a threat because he is a very similar player to Peterson. There is also speculation that wide receiver Percy Harvin could see time as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield. There seems to be a developing concern that Peterson’s propensity to fumble the ball (seven times last year plus two in the playoffs) will cost him touches, but that is unlikely to happen. Simply put, Peterson is the top offensive talent on the Vikings, and that will translate into an average of over 20 touches per game.
RB Toby Gerhart
Gerhart enters his rookie season as a must-have handcuff for Peterson owners. However, determining his true value is a difficult task because he is a very similar player to Peterson—a tough inside runner but not an exceptional receiver. Therefore, his job will be to give Peterson a breather as opposed to having a specific role in the Vikings offense. If Adrian Peterson gets hurt, Gerhart’s gold. Otherwise, he is likely to get at most 4-6 touches a game. Drafting him is like playing the lottery…at $2 a ticket, I’m in; at $10, forget about it.
WR Sidney Rice
Rice’s 2009 breakout campaign came as a huge surprise given his lack of productivity during his first two years in the league (46 receptions for 537 yards and eight touchdowns). He meshed perfectly with Brett Favre in the quarterback’s first year with the team, proving to be as solid on intermediate patterns as on deep plays and supplying big-play ability that most scouts didn’t think he had coming out of college. He finished 2009 as the 10th-ranked fantasy wide receiver, with 83 receptions for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging a surprising 15.8 yards per reception. With Percy Harvin’s role expected to expand and Bernard Berrian healthy to start the season, Rice will be hard-pressed to match his 2009 production. The recent announcement that he is suffering lingering hip pain as the result of an injury suffered during the playoffs last year raises another red flag. Rice should be drafted as a low-end WR1 or upper-tier WR2, but the hip injury needs to be monitored prior to your fantasy draft or auction.
WR Percy Harvin
Harvin had a nice rookie season, despite suffering from intermittent migraines that robbed him of valuable practice time and caused him to miss one game. He has the talent to be a 1,000 yard receiver for years to come and could surpass Sidney Rice as the team’s go-to threat as early as this season. While there is speculation that he could be deployed as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield, it would seem that his long-term development would be best served concentrating on the wide receiver position. Despite being targeted on several short and intermediate passes, Harvin averaged 13.2 yards per reception as a rookie, evidencing his big-play ability. The quarterback situation in Minnesota will impact his production, but there is ample reason to believe that Harvin is the real deal and will see plenty of touches in 2010. Recent reports that he’s added ten pounds of muscle indicate that he’s ready to take his game to a new level this season. Consider him a WR3 with upside and one of the best wide receiver prospects for dynasty leagues.
WR Bernard Berrian
For some reason, Berrian evokes thoughts of Joey Galloway, Santana Moss, and Lee Evans. All are talented players with speed to burn and the capability to put up huge games, but they are also likely to disappear for long stretches. Start ‘em and they disappoint; bench ‘em and they burn you. With Berrian, there always seems to be some issue. It’s the quarterback, the hamstrings, the this and the that. Last year, it was bad ankles and competition for targets from youngsters Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin. You’re going to read that he will bounce back this year and put up close to 1,000 yards and 6 or 7 touchdowns like he did in 2007 and 2008. Don’t believe it. Rice and Harvin are too good not to get the ball, and Berrian is going to be relegated to running deep patterns. It’s also worth noting that Berrian averaged a career-low 11.2 yards per reception last year despite playing on the Vikings high-powered offense. I don’t like him—never have and I’m not about to now.
TE Visanthe Shiancoe
Shiancoe has been a solid fantasy tight end for the last two years simply because he is a touchdown machine (11 last year and 7 in 2008). He has yet to surpass 600 yards, however, so if you grab him, you’ll be banking on his touchdowns. That means his production is going to be inconsistent, which increases his risk factor. Nonetheless, production is production. And if Brett Favre is on board at quarterback, Shiancoe has a 50/50 chance to catch 8 or 9 touchdowns in 2010.
By: Dave Stringer — July 28, 2010 @ 8:19 am
The Packers clinched a wildcard berth in 2009 on the strength of the team’s offense and the passing exploits of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers emerging as one of the league’s top young passers and with a number of young key performers on offense, the Packers should be an offensive juggernaut for the next few years.
Unfortunately, the team’s defense collapsed in a 51-45 playoff loss to Arizona, continuing a season-long trend of poor play in key games that included a pair of losses to Minnesota in which they surrendered 68 points. The defense, in particular the secondary, will need to perform better if the Packers expect to go deep into the playoffs.
On offense, the Packers will once again feature a strong passing attack led by Rodgers. The team finished 7th in passing offense last year and would have finished higher if not for the inordinate number of sacks they gave up. Rodgers was sacked a league-leading 51 times, with many of those sacks a direct result of his refusal to get rid of the ball early.
The Packers feature four solid wide receivers in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson as well as the league’s top receiving tight end prospect in Jermichael Finley. Rodgers spreads the wealth among his receivers, and each player is capable of making big plays in the passing game.
Jennings had a mildly disappointing season, failing to generate as many big plays as he had in each of the previous two seasons. His touchdown production plummeted to only four, but he remains one of the league’s top receivers. The aging Driver had another solid season but may be replaced by Jones in the starting lineup as early as 2011. Jones and Nelson have not yet reached their potential, but both players have starting potential if they continue to develop.
Finley was a revelation during his second year in the league, displaying big-play ability when head coach Mike McCarthy increased his playing time. He possesses outstanding size and speed and has the opportunity to become one of the league’s elite tight ends in 2010.
Running back Ryan Grant isn’t a flashy runner but he excels in the Packers system. He is a one-cut runner and, although not one of the fastest backs in the league, is able to break long runs. He is one of the league’s most underrated running backs despite averaging 80 rushing yards per game since becoming the team’s starter at the midway point of the 2007 season. Grant’s backup last year was the disappointing Brandon Jackson. This season, Grant will be challenged by rookie sixth-round pick James Starks.
The offensive line suffered through injuries last season and did not have a great year, particularly in pass protection. With aging tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher healthy and ready to start the season along with rookie first-round pick Bryan Bulaga on board, the Packers expect greater things from this unit in 2010.
With the team returning all of their key skill position players on offense, they are set for another solid season. The only issue that could prevent that from happening is an injury along the offensive line or to Rodgers. The Packers seem set to challenge the Vikings for the NFC North crown, and a run to the Super Bowl isn’t out of the question for Green Bay in 2010.
QB Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers was the top-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2009, courtesy of 4,434 yards passing and 30 touchdowns. He also put up 304 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns, propelling him past Drew Brees. The one knock on Rodgers was his refusal to get rid of the ball to avoid being sacked, which bogged down the offense on occasion. With a mixture of emerging young players and veterans returning from injury, expect better offensive line play in 2010. The Packers are four deep at receiver, with James Jones and Jordy Nelson both capable receivers in backup roles. Jermichael Finley provides a dynamic receiving threat at tight end and could emerge as one of the league’s top receiving tight ends this year. The ingredients are there for Rodgers to repeat his 2009 performance, with the only risk being a potential injury due to his inability to get the ball out quicker.
RB Ryan Grant
Grant is coming off a solid 2009 campaign where he finished with a flurry, scoring six touchdowns and gaining 322 rushing yards over the final four games of the season. He topped 1,000 yards for the second year in a row, finishing with a career-high 1,253. While Grant has put up solid production during his three years in Green Bay, he remains undervalued for fantasy purposes, and there is a lingering concern that the Packers would like a more explosive player at the position. While both issues may be true, the bottom line is that he’s put up 3,412 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns in what amounts to two and a half seasons in Green Bay. That means he’s productive. Brandon Jackson has been a disappointment, and the team waited until the sixth round before drafting James Starks. That should translate into opportunity for Grant. Throw in the fact that the Packers should be a top five offense in 2010 and there’s not much more you can ask for. Grant is a borderline top 10 back with little risk.
RB Brandon Jackson
Jackson has been a bust for the Packers since being taken in the second round of the 2007 draft. Drafted to challenge Ryan Grant, Jackson has not proven to be effective running the ball and has been relegated to serving in a pass-catching capacity. Even in that role he leaves something to be desired given his lack of ability to make big plays, although he is a solid pass blocker. In three years, he has topped 400 yards only once, and he is coming off the worst year of his career. In fact, he was so bad that the Packers felt the need to dust off Ahman Green and bring him back for the stretch run. When Grant needed a breather on running downs, the Pack turned to Green. Frankly, there’s no reason to handcuff Grant with Jackson since he wouldn’t be able to accomplish anything anyway. Don’t waste a roster spot on this guy.
RB James Starks
The Packers used a sixth-round pick on Starks in the hopes that he can be a quality option running the ball behind Ryan Grant. Former second-round pick Brandon Jackson hasn’t proven to be an effective runner, and the Packers have had to hit the scrap heap for the likes of Ahman Green to supplement Grant. Starks’ measurables and collegiate production don’t jump out at you, but there is potential here considering that Grant isn’t an overly talented back and that the team lacks enthusiasm for Jackson. It also doesn’t hurt that the Packers offense is great, which makes Starks worth the gamble in leagues with larger rosters.
WR Greg Jennings
Jennings was a fantasy disappointment in 2009. While he posted a solid 1,113 receiving yards, he managed just four touchdowns after scoring 21 over the previous two years. His lack of touchdown production was all the more shocking given the Packers solid offensive output and the strong quarterback play of Aaron Rodgers. Jennings still showcased his big play ability, averaging 16.4 yards per catch, but he simply couldn’t find the end zone on a consistent basis. Given his poor fantasy season, a number of his 2009 owners will likely look the other way on draft day, with the result being a solid number one receiver on one of the league’s top offenses potentially being undervalued. While the Packers are four deep at wide receiver and have an emerging tight end in Jermichael Finley, Jennings remains their best receiver—and Donald Driver’s age is becoming a concern given the low number of receivers that produce at his age.
WR Donald Driver
Driver turned thirty-five this offseason and while his production was solid last year with 1,061 yards and six touchdowns, there are warning signs on the horizon. He only had 185 yards with no touchdowns during the last four regular season games of 2009, so there should be a concern that he is slowing down. He is also coming off double arthroscopic knee surgeries, and older players generally take longer to recover from surgery. Few wide receivers play well after turning thirty-five, and Driver could very well follow that trend. He is certainly a risky fantasy play in 2010, although the risk is somewhat mitigated due to his prominence in Green Bay’s solid offense. Based on his production last year, Driver will be drafted as a WR3 in most leagues, but his value lies as a fantasy backup when considering his risk/reward factors.
James Jones
Based on his performance last year, it looks like Jones has solidified the third receiver role ahead of Jordy Nelson. Jones is a tall target with decent but not great speed who has inconsistent hands. He is a solid red zone target (five touchdowns last year) and is talented enough to produce if injury strikes Greg Jennings or Donald Driver, although he may not have the upside of those two players. With 32 receptions for 440 yards last year, Jones doesn’t get enough targets to be a flex option, so his value lies as a prospect in dynasty leagues and as a fill-in if Jennings or Driver goes down for an extended period of time. Driver’s contract expires after this season, so if he retires or is ineffective in 2010, you may be glad you grabbed Jones for your dynasty league.
WR Jordy Nelson
Not many fourth wide receivers are worth mentioning in fantasy circles, but Nelson is an exception. The third year, former second-round pick is a talented player who suffered through an injury-plagued 2009 season, which allowed James Jones to pass him on the Packers depth chart. While Nelson isn’t worth taking in redraft leagues, he is worth taking a flier on in dynasty leagues. He has good speed and is reasonably shifty in the open field. With Donald Driver in a contract year, Nelson could battle Jones for a starting spot in 2011.
TE Jermichael Finley
Finley had a coming-out party in 2009 with 55 receptions for 676 yards and five touchdowns, despite playing in only 13 games with nine starts. In those nine starts he amassed 97 fantasy points, and he averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game over the last five games of the season. Finley is a talented receiver with excellent size, speed, and hands, and his production last year might just be just the tip of the iceberg. Given Finley’s obvious skills, he figures to only get better with more experience. With a young quarterback at the helm in Green Bay, Finley has major upside and should be regarded as the top-ranked tight end in dynasty leagues. A top five fantasy ranking in 2010 is within reach, and a number one ranking isn’t out of the question.
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