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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — July 26, 2010 @ 12:15 pm
 The Lions enter 2010 coming off another disappointing season. After going winless in 2008, the Lions managed just two wins in 2009 under Jim Schwartz’ first season as the team’s head coach. The arrow is pointing up in Detroit, however, especially on offense where the team has used the draft to add a number of solid skill position players over the last few years.
The Lions are hoping that second-year quarterback Matthew Stafford takes another step in his development and establishes better chemistry with talented wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Too often in 2009 they were not on the same page, resulting in Megatron catching less than half the passes thrown to him.
Detroit added several pieces in the offseason, which should help jumpstart the offense in 2010.
Nate Burleson was added to provide a deep threat and take some pressure off Johnson. In addition, Tony Scheffler’s acquisition provides insurance in case Brandon Pettigrew isn’t 100% healthy at the start of the season. Rookie first-round pick Jahvid Best reduces the concerns about the running attack as Kevin Smith fights his way back from injury.
On the offensive line, physical left guard Rob Sims was acquired from the Seahawks, and the team is hopeful that right tackle Gosder Cherilus shows significant improvement in his third season, after a disappointing start to his career.
While the Lions offense can’t be expected to break out in 2010, they have been building a solid foundation. Look for them to finish in the middle of the pack offensively this year, but the pieces are in place for long-term offensive success in Detroit.
QB Matthew Stafford
Stafford is coming off a decent rookie season in which he started ten games and threw for 2,267 yards with 13 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. His completion percentage was a disappointing 53.3%, but in his defense, the performance of the Lions wide receivers in 2009 was simply atrocious. Calvin Johnson missed two games and most of another with a knee injury, Bryant Johnson was a complete bust, and Derrick Williams did nothing as a rookie. With no threat opposite Johnson, he was double-teamed on almost every play, and the team’s other receivers failed to take advantage of that. Even when they did get open, too often they dropped catchable passes. The fantasy world seems focused on Jets sophomore quarterback Mark Sanchez, but Stafford figures to produce more fantasy points in 2010. Consider him a low-end fantasy backup with upside if Johnson avoids the injury bug and Burleson can take advantage of single coverage.
RB Jahvid Best
After the rookie draft, the consensus seemed to be that Best’s 2010 fantasy prospects in Detroit didn’t look promising. However, Best could put up good numbers this season. Detroit’s offense is on the way up (not way up, mind you) and Best will get extensive playing time early in the season. Kevin Smith might not be ready on opening day and, if he is, figures to struggle from his injury recovery. That translates into opportunity for Best. While Smith is a starting-caliber back best suited for early-down work, Best seems to be most apt as the third-down, change-of-pace back, so this could be a committee situation by the end of the year. Draft Best as a fantasy backup in redraft leagues. In dynasty formats, he offers excellent potential given the young talent Detroit’s offense features.
RB Kevin Smith
Smith appeared to be the Lions answer at the running back position after a solid rookie season in 2008. But he sputtered last year, was ineffective at times, and did not provide many big plays. The Lions traded up to take Jahvid Best at the back end of the first-round, so he figures to get an opportunity to play ahead of Smith. In addition, Smith is recovering from a knee injury suffered in Week 14 and may not be ready on opening day. Once healthy, Smith figures to rotate in and get the goal-line work. He is worth taking a flier on in the later rounds of most leagues, but avoid reaching for a player recovering from injury, particularly when their team has drafted a player in the early rounds to replace them.
WR Calvin Johnson
Johnson was, without question, one of the largest fantasy busts at wide receiver in 2009 with less than 1,000 yards and only five touchdowns. Johnson had various nicks and bruises that hindered his performance, and he was unable to beat double coverage as he had in 2008. Matt Stafford figures to improve significantly in 2010, and hopefully Johnson can remain healthy for 16 games. If that happens, Johnson could return to his 2008 form of 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns—a result more likely to happen if free agent acquisition Nate Burleson performs well. The Lions offense should be more explosive with the addition of running back Jahvid Best, and Johnson figures to benefit in the touchdown department. Coming off a poor 2009 season, Johnson could be considered a bit of a buy-low option.
WR Nate Burleson
Burleson moves to the Lions where he figures to get plenty of single coverage opposite Calvin Johnson. He was the Seahawks top wide receiver in 2009, finishing with 63 receptions for 812 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games. In Detroit, he may have difficulty replicating that production because Calvin Johnson eats up the targets, so Burleson may not get as many passes thrown his way. Look for Burleson to be more of a deep threat—a role he has played for most of his career. As with other receivers that run mostly deep patterns, Burleson has been extremely inconsistent from week to week. Consider him a backup wide receiver in all fantasy formats, capable of filling in on bye weeks if a solid matchup presents itself.
WR Bryant Johnson
Since leaving the Cardinals, Bryant Johnson has been a disappointment with the 49ers in 2008 ad with the Lions in Detroit last year. Although he is a gifted receiver with speed, size, and decent hands, Johnson has been a tease, unable to turn his natural ability into production on a consistent basis. The Lions signed Nate Burleson during the offseason, perhaps the premier free agent wide receiver on the market. His acquisition moves Johnson out of the starting lineup and likely off the roster due to his lack of ability on special teams. The team employs Dennis Northcutt out of the slot and wants to find playing time for their 2009 third-round pick Derrick Williams, making Johnson a likely candidate for a new team in 2010. Johnson’s talent has never translated into solid fantasy production and it isn’t about to now.
TE Brandon Pettigrew
Pettigrew was last year’s top-ranked rookie tight end but is recovering from a knee injury and may not be fully healthy on opening day; plus, he now has Tony Scheffler to contend with. In a nutshell, the odds of him breaking out are pretty much zilch. That’s too bad since he was playing well before he was hurt (15 receptions for 165 yards and two touchdowns in the three games before his injury).
TE Tony Scheffler
Scheffler goes from being a forgotten man in Josh McDaniels’ Denver wonderland to being a backup in Detroit. Makes you wonder what he did in his past life. While he has undeniable receiving ability, Scheffler is a poor blocker and is unlikely to get much playing time ahead of Brandon Pettigrew if Pettigrew is ready to start the season. Scheffler’s fantasy prospects are basically tied to Pettigrew’s availability, and he is worthy of a late-round pick only in larger leagues.
By: Dave Stringer — July 25, 2010 @ 1:24 pm
 The Bears had a tumultuous season in 2009 as they struggled on offense during quarterback Jay Cutler’s first year in the Windy City. Cutler’s propensity for turnovers doomed the Bears offense, and his presence failed to lift the performance of the team’s receivers as Bears management anticipated when they traded two first-round picks, a third-round pick, and incumbent starter Kyle Orton to acquire Cutler and a fifth-round draft choice.
Mike Martz was brought in to coordinate the offense, and the Bears and head coach Lovie Smith are counting on Martz and Cutler to lift the team into playoff contention. Otherwise, Smith, Martz, and general manager Jerry Angelo will likely be looking for employment elsewhere in 2011.
Martz brings his high-flying offensive philosophies to Chicago where he gets a chance to work with Cutler, who he has described as the most talented quarterback he has ever worked with. While that may be the case, Cutler has a long way to go to reach the heights Kurt Warner and, to a lesser extent, Marc Bulger reached while working with Martz.
It also doesn’t help that the Bears don’t have a pair of wide receivers as talented as the Rams former duo of Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt.
Nonetheless, the Bears do possess emerging talent at wide receiver in Devin Hester, Devin Aromashodu, Johnny Knox, and Earl Bennett. While none of the foursome has proven yet to be a consistent producer, each has achieved some marginal success in the league. The Bears are hoping for at least two of them to emerge as consistent threats in 2010.
Greg Olsen is an emerging talent at the tight end position but may see his role reduced this season. While Martz has talked openly of developing a solid role for Olsen, he did the same in San Francisco and failed to develop Vernon Davis. Traditionally, the tight end position has been more involved in a blocking role in the Martz offense, and it won’t be a surprise if that occurs again this season.
The running back position will be handled by Matt Forte and free agent acquisition Chester Taylor. They are similar players, most effective running between the tackles and catching the ball out of the backfield. Neither is considered a power runner or exceptional at breaking long runs. Regardless, both players have proven to be more than reliable when called upon and figure to have productive, if not outstanding, seasons.
With playmaking defensive end Julius Peppers on board, the Bears have added one of the premier pass-rushing talents in the league to help out on defense. If the defense, particularly middle linebacker Brian Urlacher, can remain healthy and hold up its end of the bargain, Cutler and the offense will be in a better position to manage the game, as opposed to being forced to play from behind. That would go a long way in reducing Cutler’s turnovers and giving the Bears an opportunity to earn a playoff spot in 2010.
QB Jay Cutler
After a disastrous season in 2009, Cutler hopes to rebound under a new offensive system and the tutelage of former Rams head coach Mike Martz. Martz is a great offensive mind that has turned around offenses in St. Louis, Detroit, and San Francisco, so it seems likely he will make the Bears a more dynamic offensive team in 2010. Unfortunately for Martz and Cutler, they are going to have to live with the team’s current crop of wide receivers since the front office failed to improve the unit in 2010. There is potential on the Bears wide receiver depth chart, but the unit lacks a proven, consistent playmaker. Cutler threw an astounding 26 interceptions last year, with many of them coming in the red zone and late in games. He needs to improve his decision-making to succeed in Martz’s offense, but the talent is clearly there. With Martz calling plays, look for Cutler to be a viable fantasy starter with the potential for 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns.
RB Matt Forte
While Forte isn’t an overly talented runner, his lack of production during his sophomore year can be chalked up at least partially to injuries and ineffectiveness along the team’s offensive line. While he has recovered from the knee and hamstring issues that slowed him last year, the offensive line remains a question mark entering the season. Forte’s rookie production was as much about the number of touches he had (379) as his overall ability. He has the chance to rebound in 2010, provided he can relegate free agent acquisition Chester Taylor to a receiving-back role. Forte shapes up as a boom or bust candidate based on whether he can retain his starting role and earn the team’s short yardage work. He should be drafted as a high-end fantasy backup with upside and is more useful in PPR leagues given his solid pass-receiving ability. He’s also a great option in flex leagues.
RB Chester Taylor
Taylor joins the Bears after serving as Adrian Peterson’s backup in Minnesota for the last three years. In Chicago, he will battle Matt Forte for playing time but enters training camp behind him on the team’s depth chart. Taylor will turn thirty-one during the season, but he should have plenty of tread left since he has topped 200 touches only once during his eight year career. With a new offensive coordinator on board in Mike Martz, Taylor will be given a fair shot to supplant Forte in the starting lineup. However, look for the younger Forte to retain the starting position since both players have very similar attributes. However, if Forte were to go down or Taylor were to win the starting job, Taylor would immediately become worthy of fantasy backup status or as a solid flex option in leagues that employ the position (especially if he wins the short-yardage work).
WR Devin Aromashodu
Earl Bennett is a little slow, Johny Knox is a little small, and new offensive coordinator Mike Martz has said Devin Hester is best suited for the slot. Although head coach Love Smith disputes Martz’s version of where Hester will line up, Martz is nothing if not stubborn, and he will be given free rein over the team’s offensive play-calling. Add it all up and Aromashodu might be the receiver to gamble on, benefiting the most from Martz’s presence in Chicago. Arosmashodu doesn’t have elite speed, but he is fast enough to succeed in Martz’s offense and possesses good size at 6’2” and 201 pounds. He emerged as quarterback Jay Cutler’s main target over the Bears final four games of last season with 39 targets. Over that span he posted 22 receptions for 282 yards and four touchdowns, with 196 yards and three touchdowns coming in the Bears final two games.
WR Earl Bennett
After a rookie year of inactivity, Bennett ended the 2009 season as one of the Bears starting wide receivers. He posted decent numbers with 54 receptions for 717 yards and two touchdowns, benefiting from the team’s lack of depth at the position and his familiarity with quarterback Jay Cutler from their time together at Vanderbilt. However, Bennett faces an uphill battle in holding on to his starting position in 2010. He is not the prototypical wide receiver for a Martz offense given his lack of speed, and he doesn’t have the shiftiness to be useful in the slot. Bennett is also recovering from minor knee surgery. While he is entering his third year in the league, when receivers often make a major leap in production, the odds seemed stacked against Bennett making such a leap this year in Chicago.
WR Johnny Knox
Knox is an intriguing option for fantasy purposes. The Bears fifth-round pick of the 2009 draft (acquired in the Jay Cutler trade) had a surprisingly solid rookie season with 45 receptions for 527 yards and five touchdowns. Coming from tiny Abilene Christian, Knox was not expected to contribute much, if at all, as a rookie. He has good speed and his 11.7 yards per reception average belies the number of big plays he made during the season. Knox is worth monitoring in the preseason and could be a solid contributor to the Bears passing attack, provided he can crack the starting lineup. He is worthy of taking a flier on in the late rounds of most leagues and is a decent prospect in dynasty leagues, considering the Bears lack of proven pass catchers.
WR Devin Hester
What to make of Devin Hester and his role in the Bears offense? Hester clearly has upside as a wide receiver, and he posted decent numbers over the last two years, topping 50 receptions in each year. It’s also encouraging that he sought out tutelage from former Ram and future Hall of Famer Isaac Bruce. On the downside, Hester really didn’t show much explosiveness last year, he now has to learn the Martz offense, and there are indications the Bears want to increase his use on special teams. He has just six touchdowns since concentrating on the wide receiver position beginning in 2008 and has averaged 13.0 yards per reception over that time—hardly an exceptional number given his speed and ability to make defenders miss. Hester has the talent to break out in 2010, but it seems a 50/50 proposition at best. Monitor his preseason performance and average draft position as your draft or auction approaches, but don’t reach for him. He should currently be viewed as a fantasy backup in all but the largest leagues.
TE Greg Olsen
Olsen is a talented tight end coming off a career year in 2009, but new offensive coordinator Mike Martz has a well-earned reputation for not utilizing the tight end position. Look no further than the case of Vernon Davis. Forgotten by Martz, Davis became a Pro Bowl tight end once Martz left the 49ers. Tight ends in Mike Martz offenses have never topped 380 yards in a season, so if you grab Olsen, you will have to bank on touchdowns for fantasy production. Fortunately, quarterback Jay Cutler loves to look Olsen’s way in the red zone. He ranks as an upper echelon backup for fantasy purposes.
By: Dave Stringer — July 24, 2010 @ 10:17 am
 After winning the Super Bowl in 2008, the Steelers have had a tumultuous run both on and off the field. The team struggled to an 8-8 finish last season and then suffered through a horrendous offseason that included a suspension for the franchise’s star player.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was suspended for four to six games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. If that weren’t bad enough, wide receiver Santonio Holmes, coming off a career season, was traded due to his off-the-field troubles, and the team lost starting right tackle Willie Colon to a season-ending injury in June.
Whether or not the Steelers, despite these issues, can remain in the playoff hunt in perhaps the league’s toughest division will be an interesting development to watch.
With Roethlisberger suspended, Byron Leftwich, Dennis Dixon, or Charlie Batch will be the team’s opening day starter at quarterback. That figures to increase the team’s reliance on the running ability of Rashard Mendenhall over the first part of the season. However, after passing the ball 536 times last year, the Steelers were expected to shift to a more balanced attack in 2010, even without Roethlisberger’s suspension.
Given Roethlisberger’s off-the-field issues, Steelers management is unlikely to give him another chance if he is involved in any more incidents. Still, he remains an elite quarterback.
After taking over as the team’s starter during Week 4, Mendenhall had an impressive 13-game stretch where he accumulated 1,063 rushing yards and six touchdowns. With no proven backup behind him, the Steelers need Mendenhall to remain healthy and to duplicate his feats from last season.
With Holmes out of the picture, second year speedster Mike Wallace moves into the starting lineup opposite Hines Ward. Wallace had an impressive rookie season that included several big plays, but he needs to prove that he can build on that production against starting cornerbacks. Ward is coming off a season in which he had the second most receiving yards of his 12-year career, and he doesn’t appear to be slowing down at thirty-one years of age.
The team is hoping to find a third receiver among veteran retreads Antwaan Randle El and Arnaz Battle or rookies Emmanuel Sanders (third round) and Antonio Brown (sixth round). Return specialist Stefan Logan could figure into the mix on gadget plays, as well.
At tight end, steady Heath Miller figures to see an expanded role with Roethlisberger out. He is a solid blocker and receiver but doesn’t offer much big play ability. Matt Spaeth backs him up.
With both the Bengals and Ravens shaping up as solid playoff contenders in 2010, the Steelers will be hard-pressed to make up ground if they struggle during Roethlisberger’s suspension. However, they will benefit from a schedule that features, over the first six weeks of the season, a number of winnable games.
QB Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger is coming off his best season as a pro, finishing as the 8th-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2009. The Steelers moved to a more pass-based offense last year, using three solid wide receivers in Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and second-year speedster Mike Wallace. However, Holmes was traded to the Jets, and the team is expected to move to a more ground-based attack in 2010. Nonetheless, Roethlisberger’s fantasy prospects for 2010 were still solid until the league suspended him for four to six games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. Assuming a four-game suspension, Roethlisberger becomes a questionable fantasy starter, and drafting him becomes risky unless you plan on starting the fantasy season with three quarterbacks on your roster. If it turns out to be a six-game suspension, you need to plan on having two starting-caliber fantasy quarterbacks, and the resources to do so are likely better served strengthening your roster in other areas.
RB Rashard Mendenhall
From a fantasy perspective, the biggest winner from Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension is Mendenhall. The Steelers were expected to utilize the running game more in 2010 anyway, but Mendenhall now figures to be used even more heavily with Roethlisberger out of the lineup. Mendenhall is a reasonably shifty runner who is a decent receiver (25 receptions last year), and he has impressive size, though he doesn’t always use it to maximum advantage. If he becomes a more physical runner, he has a chance for a true breakout fantasy season in 2010. Once he was moved into the starting lineup in Week 4 last season, Mendenhall averaged a very impressive 13.8 fantasy points per game. Amongst running backs in 2010, Mendenhall is in the tier below the consensus top four running backs, and there is a decent chance he will be at the head of that tier by season’s end.
RB Jonathan Dwyer
The rookie sixth-round pick has an opportunity to earn the primary backup role to Rashard Mendenhall. While Mewelde Moore will assume the pass-catching role out of the Steelers backfield, his lack of size means the team will probably go with a bigger back in the starting role should Mendenhall go down with an injury, as he did during his rookie season in 2008. Dwyer has good size at 5’11” and 230 pounds and was a workhorse runner at Georgia Tech. If Dwyer wins the role, he is worth taking a flier on and is worthy of using as a handcuff to Mendenhall.
WR Hines Ward
Mr. Consistency is back with the Steelers and, with Santonio Holmes off to New York, Ward’s role as the team’s top wide receiver seems secure for another couple of years. At thirty-four years of age, there are no signs of Ward slowing down, and he is coming off his second consecutive 1000-yard season and has now reached that plateau in six of the last nine years (twice he finished with 975 yards). Even though he had to play through some nagging injuries last year, he managed his highest number of receiving yards since the 2003 season. He’s still Ben Roethlisberger’s security blanket. Ward loses value because of the Roethlisberger suspension but gains targets with Holmes departing for the Jets.
WR Mike Wallace
Wallace looked like a budding star prior to the Holmes trade and he looks even better after it. He should be a solid option in 2010, even with the Roethlisberger suspension. Wallace was the biggest surprise among rookie receivers in 2009, with 756 yards and six touchdowns—good enough for 34th overall at the position. Wallace has excellent speed and was as a solid deep threat for the Steelers last year, averaging 19.4 yards per reception. It’s not realistic for him to maintain that average in the starting lineup, but he should improve on his production from a year ago, and he has excellent upside and is a great option in keeper leagues.
TE Heath Miller
Coming off a career year, Miller emerged as a solid check-down option for the Steelers as well as a great red zone target. He is likely to suffer due to Ben Roethlisberger’s four to six game suspension, which will likely reduce his looks in the red zone if the offense struggles. However, he could quickly become a favorite for Dennis Dixon or Byron Leftwich, which may benefit him in PPR leagues. Miller was a low-end fantasy starter with Roethlisberger but reverts to a fantasy backup in 2010—albeit a high-end one.
By: Dave Stringer — July 23, 2010 @ 9:39 am
 The Browns had another disappointing season in 2009, managing to finish 5-11 despite having one of the worst offenses in the league. However, that record is a bit misleading since it was aided by a four-game winning streak that featured victories over the Steelers, Chiefs, Raiders, and Jaguars at the end of the season.
Mike Holmgren was hired as the team’s president prior to the conclusion of last season, and he brought in Tom Heckert in as the team’s general manager. Despite the impressive pedigree of the team’s new management, the Browns figure to struggle once again in a very competitive AFC North in 2010 as they attempt to revitalize a roster that is devoid of playmakers on offense.
Jake Delhomme was signed from free agency to keep the quarterback seat warm while the team develops rookie third-round pick Colt McCoy. Delhomme is clearly a declining player, so it won’t be a surprise if the team turns to backup Seneca Wallace or McCoy at some point during 2010.
Despite an impressive season from Jerome Harrison, the Browns used a second-round pick on rookie runner Montario Hardesty, who they hope can supply the power running presence they lacked in 2009. There are concerns about Harrison’s ability to handle a heavy workload for an entire season, but he figures to get plenty of touches, especially on receiving downs.
The Browns feature a young, unproven group of wide receivers in Mohamed Massaquoi, Brian Robiskie, Chansi Stuckey, and rookie sixth-round pick Carlton Mitchell. They are joined by veteran Bobby Engram, who will likely battle Stuckey for the slot receiver role. Barring an unexpected breakout season by one of the younger players, the Browns figure to once again have one of the worst groups of wide receivers in the league.
Ben Watson was signed to start at tight end, though he failed to make the most of his natural talent during his stay with the Patriots. Perhaps a scenario change will revitalize his career. Evan Moore showed some impressive receiving ability as a rookie in 2009, but he leaves something to be desired as a blocker.
Barring a strong comeback season from Delhomme and unexpected production from the team’s wide receivers, the Browns figure to struggle in the passing game in 2010. That will force head coach Eric Mangini to rely on the running game behind an offensive line that struggled at times during 2009. Add it all up and it won’t be a surprise if the Browns come close to duplicating their offensive performance in 2009 when they scored a paltry 19 offensive touchdowns.
QB Jake Delhomme
Delhomme has been horrible for the last season-and-a-half on a Panthers team with an outstanding rushing attack, a solid offensive line, and Steve Smith at wide receiver. In 2010, he moves to a Browns team that has a depth chart at wide receiver that is absolutely scary in that it had the worst passing offense in the league last year with a woeful 129.8 yards per game, was the only team to complete fewer than 50% of their passes, averaged a league worst 5.1 yards per attempt, and had the second-lowest number of touchdown passes with 11. There’s no point in adding much more, considering that only Delhomme’s relatives were thinking about adding him to their fantasy squads in 2010.
QB Seneca Wallace
There are some that think Wallace is in Cleveland to compete with Jake Delhomme for the starting position, but that may be a stretch. Instead, look for Wallace to be used extensively in the wildcat formation and perhaps even in running the option. In addition, he has experience at wide receiver, so he could be used in that manner when the defense thinks a wildcat play is being run. Even if Wallace were to win the starting job, it’s extremely unlikely that he would be worth owning in fantasy leagues.
RB Jerome Harrison
Harrison is coming off a surprisingly productive 2009 season after suffering through three seasons of relative inactivity for the Browns. He finished last season with 862 rushing yards to go along with 220 receiving yards and seven total touchdowns in only seven starts, and he had been touted as a breakout candidate in 2010. However, of his 150 fantasy points from last year, 89 came in three games against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Jaguars; and it’s hard to ignore that he failed to win significant playing time from an aging Jamal Lewis in 2007 and 2008. Harrison is also a leftover from the previous management regime in Cleveland, and the new group headed by Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert traded up in the second round to draft Montario Hardesty. Did we mention Harrison plays in the Browns popgun offense led by Jake Delhomme? To summarize: bad offensive team, solid play for half a year out of four, team’s new management has drafted his replacement. By mid-year, Harrison could be coming off the bench in a change-of-pace, pass-catching role. While Harrison has an opportunity to produce in 2010, he is a player who carries significant risk and will likely be drafted before he should be based only on his 2009 production.
Montario Hardesty
Here’s the good news: the Browns traded up in the second round to draft Hardesty, new Browns general manager Tom Heckert said he views Hardesty as a feature back, and president Mike Holmgren thinks he can be special. Of course, they drafted him, so what else are they going to say? Now the bad news: he needs to supplant Jerome Harrison, he had an injury-plagued college career, and the Browns offense has serious deficiencies at quarterback and wide receiver. In fact, by season’s end, they may have the worst production in the league at those positions. While Hardesty has appeal in keeper leagues, he is unlikely to provide solid production during his rookie year in Cleveland.
WR Mohamed Massaquoi
With Massaquoi, the beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Is he the player who had a productive rookie season with 624 yards, three touchdowns, and a nifty 18.4 yards per catch average, despite playing on a bad team with poor quarterback play? Or is he a marginally talented player who put up some decent numbers because the Browns didn’t have anybody else to throw to? At 6’2” and 207 pounds, he has good size and displayed some big play ability as a rookie. However, he was very inconsistent, with a large portion of his production (407 yards and two touchdowns) coming in four games—the only games in which he topped 40 yards receiving. In addition, his average yards per catch as a rookie may be deceiving since he doesn’t possess great deep speed. Nonetheless, he projects as the Browns top wide receiver in 2010 and as a low-end WR4 with limited upside.
WR Brian Robiskie
Robiskie came into the league last year with the reputation of the most polished rookie receiver in the draft. However, that analysis was proven wrong when he failed to earn a meaningful role on a Browns team that may have had the worst group of wide receivers in the league. Despite being the fourth pick in the second round and possessing decent speed, he was active for only 11 games—many of which he barely played—and caught a mere seven passes for 106 yards. He was targeted only 21 times. Barring major improvement during the offseason, along with a solid training camp, he does not currently project as a player worth drafting in any but the deepest of fantasy leagues.
WR Josh Cribbs
Cribbs has displayed some obvious big-play ability, but the most yards from scrimmage he has had in a season over his five-year career came last year when he totaled 516. In the previous four years, his combined total was 292 total yards. Although the Browns list him as a wide receiver, there is little doubt that his biggest potential for fantasy purposes lies in his ability as a running back. With Jerome Harrison showing only a solid half-season out of four full years in the league, Montario Hardesty having a history of injuries, Peyton Hillis being a marginal talent, and James Davis coming off a wasted rookie season, Cribbs could get a shot for some carries at running back. It’s a long shot at best. But it would be interesting to see what he could do if given an opportunity.
WR Chansi Stuckey
For one season, Stuckey was reasonably decent as a third receiver on a 2008 Jets offense that put up solid passing numbers. However, the Jets gave up on him after he started three of four games with minimal impact. He’s a marginal talent at best and isn’t even guaranteed a roster spot in 2010—although head coach Eric Mangini brought him in, which helps his situation. The Browns passing offense figures to be horrid, so there are no tailwinds to help Stuckey’s fantasy production like there were when he was with the Jets.
TE Ben Watson
Watson brings his tantalizing speed to a Browns roster desperate for receiving help. However, he failed to flourish during his six seasons in the pass-heavy Patriots offense. While he may get more opportunities in Cleveland given the state of the team’s wide receivers, most of his fantasy production in New England came on touchdowns, and he will likely have fewer scoring opportunities in Cleveland. For fantasy purposes, he is a low-end backup tight end who possesses little upside.
TE Evan Moore
Moore looks the part of a solid pass catcher and figures to get some opportunities with the Browns in 2010. Unfortunately, they signed Ben Watson to take over as the team’s starting tight end, and Jake Delhomme is at quarterback. Keep your eye on Moore as a potential waiver pick-up or bye-week filler, considering the skills he showed last season.
By: Dave Stringer — July 21, 2010 @ 9:03 am
 Expectations are high in Baltimore this season as the Ravens attempt to make the playoffs for the third year in a row during head coach John Harbaugh’s tenure with the team. With a collection of improving young players at key positions and aging but still-productive veterans, the Ravens roster is built to go deep into the playoffs in 2010.
On offense, the Ravens added veteran wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth and drafted two tight ends to give quarterback Joe Flacco more weapons to work with. The team used its first two draft picks on defense (nose tackle Terrence Cody and linebacker Sergio Kindle).
They also chose to hold on to veteran left tackle Jared Gaither and running back Willis McGahee, despite their hefty salaries and their potential replacements already on the roster.
Flacco took a step forward at quarterback last year, but the team’s breakout offensive player was running back Ray Rice. Rice burst out of the gates and never looked back, amassing over 2,000 total yards and proving to be equally effective as a runner and a pass catcher. Entering his third year, Rice figures to be the centerpiece of the Ravens offense for the next several years.
With Bolden on board and Derrick Mason back for another season, the Ravens possess a pair of superb possession receivers and excellent route runners. Bolden also remains a threat after the catch. Look for Stallworth, Mark Clayton, and Demetrius Williams to be utilized mainly on deep plays.
Todd Heap had a nice comeback season in 2009 after a pair of down years in 2007 and 2008. He finished the year with 593 receiving yards and six touchdowns. With Heap turning thirty, the Ravens drafted Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta as his eventual replacements.
With a solid defense and outstanding running game, the Ravens snuck into the playoffs last year with a 9-7 record. However, more is expected in 2010. The defense and running game figure to be solid once again, so the onus is on Flacco to develop a more dynamic passing attack with his new weapons if the Ravens expect to go deep into the playoffs.
QB Joe Flacco
Flacco started out on fire in 2009 with 131 fantasy points over his first six games. However, he came back down to earth soon after, averaging under 14 points per game over the balance of the season on his way to finishing as the 17th-ranked fantasy quarterback. The question with Flacco is, Is he the player we saw for the first part of 2009 or the one who struggled to produce over the season’s final ten games? With the addition of Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth—as well as Derrick Mason’s return—the easy answer is that he’s the guy we saw early in 2009. However, the Ravens remain a team that is dedicated to running the ball, and they return their top three running backs from last year. Look for Flacco to improve upon his 17th-place ranking in 2009 but to remain a fantasy backup in 2010.
RB Ray Rice
Rice literally took the ball and ran with it in 2009, bursting onto the fantasy scene with 2,041 total yards and eight touchdowns. His 78 receptions were an added bonus in PPR leagues. The consensus for 2009 seems to be that the diminutive Rice is the fourth-ranked running back, though in a tier (perhaps by himself) behind Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Maurice Jones-Drew. Here’s a little tip to consider: During the last 12 weeks of the 2009 season, Rice had 42 red zone touches while Willis McGahee had 16.
RB Willis McGahee
Somewhat surprisingly, the Ravens decided to bring McGahee back this year. While he played extremely well early in 2009—looking as good as he did when he was at his peak with the Bills—the Ravens oddly jettisoned him to the bench in favor of Ray Rice. That decision proved to be the correct move. While McGahee had 146 fantasy points last year, which is very respectable for a backup, 113 of those points came in five games. He doesn’t fulfill the role as third-down back, so he isn’t an option in flex leagues; but Rice owners certainly will want to get McGahee as a handcuff.
RB Le’Ron McClain
McClain is caught in a numbers game in Baltimore, stuck behind Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Unless he can beat out McGahee, his fantasy stock in 2010 should be considered worthless. Provided you have a roster spot to stash him, he might be useful in dynasty leagues beginning in 2011, since McGahee isn’t expected back after this season. While some may draft McClain hoping for a return to his solid production in 2008, the bottom line is that he had only 67 touches last year and remains third on the depth chart.
WR Anquan Boldin
Boldin qualifies as one of the more perplexing players to predict in 2010. While he escapes Larry Fitzgerald’s shadow in Arizona, moving to the run-heavy offense of the Ravens can hardly be considered an elixir for his fantasy production. To make matters worse, the Ravens utilize Ray Rice heavily in a pass-catching role out of the backfield, tight end Todd Heap is coming off a bounce back season, and the ever-reliable Derrick Mason returns to go along with deep threats Donte Stallworth and Mark Clatyon. It’s hard to predict more than 1,000 yards from Boldin, which means he’s going to need to rely on touchdowns to be a solid WR2 in 2010. Don’t expect that to happen—Boldin should be viewed as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3.
WR Derrick Mason
Mason is back in Baltimore for another season, but now he will be playing second fiddle to Boldin. Basically, there’s no reason to think he will reprise his role from previous seasons. Mason and Boldin are similar players, except Boldin is bigger, stronger, and faster. In addition, the team is four deep at wide receiver and Ray Rice and Todd Heap are also solid receivers who will eat into Mason’s targets in 2010. He is a low-end WR3 without much upside.
WR Mark Clayton
After Clayton had 67 receptions for 939 yards and five touchdowns during his second year in the league in 2006, it appeared that he was on his way to eventually replacing Derrick Mason as the Ravens top wide receiver. However, after three consecutive disappointing seasons, Clayton is now likely to be relegated to the fourth wide receiver role in Baltimore—or even with a new team in 2010. He is coming off a season in which he finished with 34 receptions for 480 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and he is facing a diminished role. Stay away.
WR Donte’ Stallworth
Stallworth returns to the league after serving a season long suspension as the result of a traffic accident that took a man’s life after the 2008 season. He is a one-dimensional burner—a player who makes the occasional spectacular play but has been unable to perform well consistently or remain healthy for extended periods. There’s no reason to expect that to change in Baltimore in 2010. He’s not draftable.
TE Todd Heap
Heap had a surprisingly solid season in 2009. On the downside, he’s about to turn thirty, he’s injury prone, and the Ravens added two tight ends in the rookie draft. However, the rookies aren’t expected to be ready to contribute early in 2010, which gives Heap plenty of time to solidify his starting status. Look for Heap to ride the coattails of a solid Ravens offense to decent fantasy production in 2010.
By: Dave Stringer — July 20, 2010 @ 9:52 am
 The Titans are coming off a roller-coaster 2009 season that included a number of ups and downs. Despite starting the season with a six-game losing streak, the Titans managed to claw their way back to an 8-8 finish by finishing on a 8-2 run that coincided with quarterback Vince Young’s insertion into the starting lineup.
The season’s highlight was running back Chris Johnson having an outstanding sophomore season, becoming only the sixth player in NFL history to surpass 2,000 yards (finishing with 2,006). Young’s development as a pocket passer was also impressive. Although he struggled in some games, his accuracy seemed to be better than in prior years, even if his completion percentage failed to reflect that.
The lowlight of the season may have been the performance of the Titans defense. The usually stellar unit was not able to overcome the loss of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth to free agency or the three-game absence of cornerback Cortland Finnegan. The defense stumbled to a 31st ranking in pass defense while giving up over 25 points per game.
In 2010, Young returns as the starting quarterback, although there are questions about his availability early in the season due to his involvement in a night club incident that occurred in June. At his best, Young is an improvisational quarterback able to make plays with his legs when his receivers are covered. He has a knack for making plays late in close games, but he needs to develop more consistency as a pocket passer.
With Johnson in tow, the Titans figure to once again be among the league leaders in rushing yards. The only concern is whether the Titans can find a viable backup to Johnson to reduce the injury risk associated with using him too much. Javon Ringer will battle a pair of undrafted free agents (LaGarrette Blunt and Stafon Johnson) for what little playing time Johnson leaves behind.
The Titans feature a trio of wide receivers who each bring differing strengths to the offense. Nate Washington is the team’s top deep threat but needs to improve his route running on short and intermediate routes. Justin Gage is a big receiver who is best used on intermediate patterns and in the red zone. Second-year player Kenny Britt offers the most upside at the position given his size and speed, but he is coming off a disappointing offseason in which he was told to sit out OTAs due to his poor conditioning.
Bo Scaife returns at tight end. Although he is a favorite of Young’s, the Titans want more from the position, and Scaife seems to have reached his potential. Ideally, Jared Cook would show enough in the preseason to earn the starting nod, with Scaife moving to the bench.
Over the years, the Titans have been a team focused on playing solid defense and with the ability to run the ball on offense. However, they failed to add any key pieces on defense, so improvement will have to come from within. On offense, they will remain focused on running the ball, given the dynamic talent that Johnson possesses.
QB Vince Young
Young enters 2010 as the unchallenged starting quarterback for the Titans, though it’s debatable whether that’s a good or bad thing. Although he played well last year, he remains a work in progress both on and off the field. His maturity has been questioned in the past, and his involvement in another incident this offseason had to be disappointing for the Titans. Young has been the quintessential boom-or-bust fantasy quarterback, but he did display more consistency last year. Temper your enthusiasm, however, since the Titans will rely heavily on Chris Johnson running the ball and, although Damian Williams was added at wide receiver through the draft, the team figures to rely once again on Nate Washington, Justin Gage, and an out-of-shape Kenny Britt in 2010. Expect Young to be drafted before he should be; his true value is as a low-end fantasy backup with upside.
RB Chris Johnson
Johnson is coming off a monstrous 2009 season in which he became only the sixth running back in NFL history to top 2,000 yards rushing (finishing with a total of 2,006). He also added 503 receiving yards, and his 2,509 combined total was the most yards from scrimmage in NFL history. The Titans return four of five starters along the offensive line, and the trade of LenDale White makes Johnson a sure workhorse back in 2010. However, if history is any indication, Johnson’s 2010 production will not approach what he accomplished last year. None of the previous five running backs to top 2,000 yards came close to hitting the milestone in the following season. However, look for Johnson to top 2,000 total yards and maintain a touchdown–per-game pace, which should please any of his fantasy owners. He will enter the season as the near-unanimous choice as the top fantasy running back.
RB Javon Ringer
With Lendale White having been traded, Ringer will compete with undrafted rookie free agents LaGarrette Blunt and Stafon Johnson for the backup role behind Chris Johnson. Ringer has been working as the team’s starter with Chris Johnson absent from offseason workouts, so he is in position to win the job. He was a workhorse back in college, and Johnson owners will want to use a late-round pick on Ringer for use as a handcuff.
WR Kenny Britt
Britt is coming off a nice rookie season with over 700 yards, although his three touchdowns were a bit of a disappointment considering his 6’3”, 220 pound frame. But the Titans are a well-coached team, so expect Britt’s red zone targets to increase in 2010, and look for him to become more assertive in going after balls. Expectations of a breakout season were dampened when reports out of Tennessee indicated that he was so out of shape that the Titans refused to let him practice at OTAs. Apparently his rookie production has gone to his head. Add that as a risk factor to this second-year player. Britt is unlikely to be a worthy fantasy starter in 2010 in most leagues, but he does have upside for keeper leagues.
WR Nate Washington
Washington is coming off a disappointing first season in Tennessee where he was bothered with injuries and never seemed to be on the same page with Vince Young. Washington will compete with Justin Gage for a spot in the starting lineup, but with Kenny Britt at one starting spot, it makes more sense to have the explosive Washington in the starting lineup ahead of Gage. Washington has always been an inconsistent performer, but expect him to top his 2009 production this season. He is a backup for fantasy purposes but is worth starting if the weekly matchup is right.
WR Justin Gage
The Titans were hopeful that Gage, after having a solid first year with the team, could continue to improve and solidify his role in the starting lineup. However, he has been a bit of a disappointment since that 2007 campaign, missing four games in each of the last two seasons. He suffered a spine injury last year that he set him back, and it now appears that he will be relegated to a backup role in 2010. There is some hope for Gage, however, given the offseason maturity issues second-year player Kenny Britt has shown. However, Britt and 2010 second-round pick Damian Williams are the future at the position for the Titans, and Gage is unlikely to earn enough playing time to be relevant for fantasy purposes in 2010.
TE Bo Scaife
A few years ago, Scaife seemed to be a promising player, but it now appears that he is stuck in journeyman status. Scaife figures to open the season as the Titans starting tight end, but second-year player Jared Cook will be breathing down his neck during the preseason. Although Scaife has 149 receptions over the last three years, his fantasy production has been muted by his 9.5 yards per reception average over that span, along with his lack of touchdowns (four in three years). If Scaife holds onto the job, expect 30-40 yards per game and one or two touchdowns on the season. Why bother?
TE Jared Cook
Cook is talented and Bo Scaife has shown his limitations over his five-year career, so Cook’s playing time should increase. In fact, it won’t be a surprise if Cook wrestles away the starting position at some point in 2010. The Titans are high on him, and , given Vince Young’s propensity for throwing to the tight end position, he could surprise if he can beat out Scaife and assume the full-time role.
By: Dave Stringer — July 19, 2010 @ 12:51 am
With the proliferation of NFL teams utilizing time-shares and running backs-by-committee, there are now fewer teams than ever before employing a single workhorse running back.
In fact, there are now only 13 teams likely to employ a single player for a healthy majority of their team’s plays on first and second down. Of those 13, only Baltimore’s Ray Rice is unlikely to take the goal line responsibilities.
With committees being the norm, finding a productive workhorse running back is a key factor in achieving success in your fantasy football league, especially in non-PPR leagues and in leagues that don’t utilize a flex position player.
Let’s analyze the backfields and rank the workhorses and the committees.
The Workhorses I Like
– Javon Ringer and undrafted rookie free agents Stafon Johnson and LaGarrette Blount are no threat to fantasy football’s top 2009 performer.
– Rookie second round pick Toby Gerhart has some ability, but he is a similar player to Peterson, which makes him no threat to earn significant playing time.
– The Jaguars like second-year player Rashad Jennings, but MJD proved in 2009 that he is well suited to carry a big load despite his 5’7” height.
– While the Ravens have three quality running backs in Rice, Willis McGahee, and Le’Ron McClain, Rice is clearly the top dog. If only he were to get more of the goal-line work.
The Steelers will run plenty in 2010.
– With Ben Roethlisberger facing a four to six game suspension and Santonio Holmes now in New York, the Steelers will run plenty in 2010—and there isn’t much talent on the roster behind Mendenhall. Mewelde Moore is a decent receiver, but Frank Summers and 2010 sixth-round pick Jonathan Dwyer are no threat to Mendenhall.
– You can debate Mathews’ presence on this list, but the fact is the Chargers don’t view Darren Sproles as a lead back, which is the reason they traded up to get Mathews.
– The good news is that the Rams have the worst collection of backup running backs in the league. The bad news is that the Rams offense is putrid.
– Glen Coffee looked like a future stud in the preseason, but he completely disappeared once the season started. Gore is the lead back in a San Francisco offense loaded with young studs, which means he could have a monster year in 2010.
– While Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood each bring different attributes to the Falcons rushing attack, Turner is a true workhorse back capable of close to 400 touches a year.
– While Grant has proven to be a solid performer for the Packers, it is somewhat surprising that the team has never brought in much competition for him. He is a solid player but is no threat to be considered among the upper echelon of the league’s top running backs.
– Benson had a huge year in 2009, but his past deficiencies are certainly cause for concern. His situation helps matters, however, since Bernard Scott is unlikely to take carries away from Benson and is not an accomplished receiver.
The Workhorses I’m Afraid Of
– While Williams was clearly the lead dog in Tampa last year, he managed a pedestrian 1,035 total yards to go along with seven touchdowns. Although improved play at quarterback from Josh Freeman is likely, the team’s group of receivers is raw, so there are no guarantees the offense will be much better in 2010.
– The Redskins situation is unique in that none of the three players fighting for the starting job have the ability to assume a third-down, pass-catching role. Portis will likely beat out Larry Johnson and Willie Parker to earn the starting job, but LJ and Parker are hardly excellent third-down options.
The Committees I Like
While it’s easy to rank the workhorses because there is only a single player to look at, the task is a little more difficult for the committees. Backfields that feature stronger rushing attacks with clearly defined roles are ranked ahead of those that are weak and have uncertainty regarding roles.
– The Panthers have proven over the last two years that it is possible to have two quality fantasy running backs in one backfield.
– Greene’s play as a rookie down the stretch of the 2009 season was good enough to allow the team’s management to release Thomas Jones . LT comes on board to provide a steady presence, and both players benefit from outstanding blocking up front.
– There are plenty enough carries to go around in Miami that Brown and Williams should both be useful fantasy options this year. With Brandon Marshall on board, the team’s running backs should get more goal-line opportunities in 2010.
– Heading into the offseason, Charles looked like a potential top 10 running back in 2010. However, the Chiefs signed Jones, and all indications are that he will get plenty of carries as a change-of-pace and goal-line option.
– This might be the ultimate backfield in PPR leagues. Wells gets the rushing yards and likely the goal-line work, whereas Hightower is an excellent pass catcher who should get 50 receptions in a backup role.
– While the Colts offense is consistently among the league’s best, the same can’t be said for their rushing attack. Brown was a disappointment as a rookie and Addai is hurt too much, as well as underutilized.
– The Cowboys featured a strong rushing attack in 2009, but there are concerns the loss of Flozell Adams will impact that negatively. It also doesn’t help that neither Barber nor Jones can stay healthy.
– Ditto for the Giants—minus the Flozell Adams factor, of course.
– Thomas is more of a rushing threat while Bush is more of a receiving threat. Lynell Hamilton could steal some goal-line carries, but if Thomas assumes that role, he is a breakout candidate for 2010.
– Moreno showed glimpses of his talent last year but not enough to satisfy Broncos fans or his fantasy football owners. With uncertainty at quarterback and a collection of aging and young, unproven wide receivers, the Broncos offense could struggle in 2010.
– McCoy played reasonably well as a rookie, but he may not have the speed or ability to make tacklers miss to become a top-tier running back. Look for Bell to get the goal-line and short-yardage work.
– Taylor’s signing by the Bears was certainly curious given that he is a carbon copy of Forte, only older. Both players are slightly above-average runners who are also solid receivers. Forte will likely win the starting job, and his value increases if he gets the goal line work.
– Smith failed to provide enough big plays over his first two years in Detroit, and, with his coming off a torn ACL, the team traded up to get the electrifying Best at the end of the first round of the draft. The Lions have gained some young talent on offense, solidified the second receiver position with the signing of Nate Burleson, and—dare I say it—may be decent offensively in 2010.
The Committees to Stay Away From
– The Texans backfield was looking like a fantasy mess before Tate missed organized team activities with hamstring issues. Here’s the situation: a rookie quickly finding his way to the dog house, a player who excelled as a rookie but had the dreaded sophomore jinx and is coming off a neck injury, and an unheralded player who played reasonably well as a rookie. Might be a good idea to move on from this mess.
– McFadden was supposed to be the big stud, but he has been mostly a bust for two years while Bush has consistently performed better—though he is used in a maddeningly inconsistent manner. Sounds like Raiderland to me.
– I expect Lynch will open the season elsewhere, but even if that transpires, the Bills offense is unlikely to perform well in 2010 given its numerous holes. With Spiller and Jackson likely to split the job, neither player’s fantasy prospects are good for 2010.
– First off, I was never sold on Harrison entering the season as the undisputed starter. It says here that the job is Hardesty’s either on opening day or early in the season if he remains healthy, with Harrison assuming the pass-catching role. But we’re talking about the Browns offense with Jake Delhomme at quarterback, so whoever wins the job won’t be useful anyways.
– One is too small, one is coming off a devastating leg injury, and the other has been a non-factor for two consecutive years. And they all play in an offense that may feature by midseason (if not earlier) a quarterback in his first year as a starter. Oh, did I mention the offensive line has some major question marks?
– If you can gaze into your crystal ball each week and figure out who is going to get the running back work, then you are better at this than I am. Of course, you’re probably using that ability to win the lottery rather than for fantasy football purposes.
By: Dave Stringer — July 18, 2010 @ 12:16 pm
 The Jaguars enter a pivotal year in 2010, with club ownership on the brink of making major changes to the team’s management and roster unless there is an improvement over the disappointing 2009 season.
The futures of general manager Gene Smith, head coach Jack Del Rio, and quarterback David Garrard hinge on the Jaguars at least contending for a playoff spot this season. If that doesn’t transpire, expect a major shake-up in Jacksonville, with new management put in place and a new quarterback leading the squad in 2011.
Garrard had a disappointing season in 2009, failing in close games to make plays at key times like he had in 2008. Although his numbers were similar in each season, he failed to make the improvements expected and, despite a better group of receivers, his production in the passing game remained steady. His accuracy remains a concern, and he needs to improve if the Jaguars are to make a playoff run in 2010.
While the passing game struggled under Garrard, there are no concerns about the Jaguars rushing attack. Maurice Jones-Drew excelled during his first year as the team’s starter, with 1,765 total yards and 16 touchdowns. In doing so, he expelled all concerns about his ability to handle the lead rushing role. With no proven backup, he is expected once again to be the team’s offensive engine in 2010.
Mike Sims-Walker enjoyed a breakout season at wide receiver, harnessing his natural ability into solid production during his third year in the league. Despite missing a game due to suspension and being an afterthought in week one, he totaled 869 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. However, he struggled in road games with just 19 receptions for 232 yards and one touchdown.
Torry Holt was released in the offseason, and the team failed to acquire a replacement. That leaves three second-year players to battle for the starting spot opposite Sims-Walker. Mike Thomas and Jarett Dillard are the frontrunners entering training camp, with Tiquan Underwood also in the mix. Troy Williamson remains on the roster but will need a strong showing in the preseason to retain his roster spot.
The tight end spot will be manned by Marcedes Lewis and promising receiving prospect Zach Miller. Lewis has been a tease during his four years in the league, failing on a consistent basis to showcase his natural ability. He enters 2010 at a crossroads. Miller is a solid receiving option, catching 21 passes for 212 yards and a pair of touchdowns as a rookie. He may get a shot at the starting spot sometime this season.
For the Jaguars to remain in the playoff hunt this season, the passing attack will need to step up its production. However, little was added to the mix, and there are concerns about getting quality play at the second wide receiver position, as well as at tight end. Although the offensive line features some young performers who should improve this season, there remain too many question marks on offense for the Jaguars to make a big leap forward in 2010.
QB David Garrard
Garrard enters 2010 with something to prove to the Jaguars management, who thought he took a step back in 2009. Unfortunately for Garrard, the Jaguars ignored wide receivers in the draft, so he has to hope either Mike Thomas, Jarett Dillard, or Tiquan Underwood develops opposite Sims-Walker. Garrard has put up 3,620 and 3,597 passing yards over the last two years with 15 touchdowns in each year—steady but not spectacular production. Without the addition of a proven threat at wide receiver, it’s safe to assume he will approximate those numbers once again in 2009. Garrard should be considered a fantasy backup with little upside.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
With Fred Taylor having signed with New England, the concern for the Jaguars entering 2009 was whether Jones-Drew would be able to shoulder the lead back role without a proven backup. He removed those concerns by remaining injury-free over 16 games despite accumulating 365 touches. There were some rumors that the Jaguars would use the tenth pick in the draft on C.J. Spiller, but that didn’t happen; so Jones-Drew will remain a workhorse runner in 2010. Look for Jones-Drew to top 1,700 total yards and average a touchdown per game again this year. He is a top three selection in standard leagues and worthy of consideration as the first overall pick in PPR leagues.
RB Rashad Jennings
The consensus was that the Jaguars received good value when they took Jennings in the sixth round of last year’s draft. However, he failed to make the most of the opportunity in Jacksonville and, despite Greg Jones being ineffective and missing part of the season with an injury, Jennings had only 55 touches on the year. But the Jaguars may decide that the 365 touches Maurice Jones-Drew had last year are too many to ensure his long-term viability, so Jennings has a chance to get more touches in 2010. He will have to beat out rookie sixth-round pick Deji Karim for the role. Jones-Drew owners should monitor this battle and grab as his handcuff whoever wins the role.
WR Mike Sims-Walker
Sims-Walker is a talented player coming off a breakout season, but there is room for improvement in 2010. While he posted solid numbers with 869 receiving yards and six touchdowns, he disappeared at times and missed one game as a result of a team suspension for missing curfew. Considering he barely played in week one, his production came in just 14 games, all the more impressive. However, the Jaguars expect more improvement in 2010, and it’s likely that Sims-Walker will provide it. He is a solid WR2 with upside and little risk given that he is clearly the top wide receiver in Jacksonville.
WR Mike Thomas
Thomas flashed some playmaking ability as a rookie, but his 9.4 yards per reception average left something to be desired. He will compete with Jarett Dillard and Tiquan Underwood to start opposite Mike Sims-Walker. At just 5’8”, however, it’s possible the Jaguars will use Thomas out of the slot, which would put a serious damper on his fantasy potential for 2010. While Thomas is worth monitoring during preseason, he will likely enter the season as a waiver wire candidate, given the Jaguars weak passing attack.
WR Jarett Dillard
Dillard enters 2010 coming off a disappointing rookie campaign in which he finished with just six receptions for 106 yards, despite the team’s lack of talent at the position. He gets a break this year, however, as the Jaguars inexplicably ignored the wide receiver position during free agency and through the draft. Dillard doesn’t possess great size at 5’10, 187 pounds, but he is a candidate to win the starting spot outside or to play out of the slot. He needs to beat out Mike Thomas and Tiquan Underwood first, however. Don’t expect Dillard to do much in 2010.
TE Marcedes Lewis
Lewis is a reasonably talented tight end, but his development has been slow and there is little reason to think he’s ready to break out in 2010. While his yardage total has increased in each of his four years in the league, he has failed to top two touchdowns in a season. So why should you expect more than that in 2010? You shouldn’t. Lewis is a fantasy backup with little upside. He might prove useful as waiver wire fodder, but that’s about it.
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