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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — July 16, 2010 @ 9:19 am
 The Colts enter 2010 coming off a heartbreaking loss in the Super Bowl in which the team’s usually potent offense went AWOL in the second half, a rare occurrence throughout much of Peyton Manning’s career in Indianapolis. The team returns this year with its core players back for what figures to be another successful season.
Although the Colts disappointed in the Super Bowl, they had another outstanding season in 2009, finishing 14-2 and winning the AFC South for the sixth time in seven seasons. Rookie head coach Jim Caldwell made a seamless transition to the team’s top job, helping the Colts to a record-setting seventh consecutive 12-win season.
The Colts will feature a potent offensive attack again this season with Manning at the controls, maximizing the production of the team’s numerous, talented skill position players.
Joseph Addai enjoyed a solid comeback season in 2009, holding off first-round pick Donald Brown from taking over as the team’s feature back. Addai is a solid runner and receiver, but he is unlikely to reach the upper echelon of backs, partly because of his injury issues. Brown had some big plays as a rookie but was inconsistent and had his own injury problems. Entering training camp, Addai is the odds-on favorite to retain the starting position.
The team’s passing attack features the excellent receiving talents of wideout Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark. Wayne had a Pro Bowl year in 2009 but struggled down the stretch, while Clark had a career year. Despite Wayne’s lack of production in the second half of last season, the consensus opinion is that he will have another solid year in 2010, even at thirty-one years of age.
The trio of Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Anthony Gonzalez will battle for the team’s starting spot opposite Wayne, as well for as the slot back role. Garcon came out of nowhere to have a solid season, and Collie excelled as a rookie, becoming Manning’s security blanket (along with Clark) over the season’s second half. Gonzalez was considered a promising player before missing all but a handful of plays in 2009.
With Manning under center, the Colts offense has been in the league’s top five year in and year out, and there’s no reason for that to change in 2010. If the offensive line improves from the off year it had last season, the Colts could lead the league in offense in their march for another AFC South crown.
QB Peyton Manning
Fantasy owners are looking for solid production on a consistent basis, and no other player has displayed those traits more than Peyton Manning has since entering the league. Over the past 12 years, Manning has topped 4,000 yards ten times and has averaged over 30 passing touchdowns per season. In 2010, playing without Marvin Harrison for the first time, Manning finished as the 4th-ranked fantasy quarterback and may have finished 2nd had he not been benched for parts of the Colts final two games. Look for Manning to have another exceptional season in 2010 as the Colts return all of the key parts of their offense, including Anthony Gonzalez, who will be back from the knee injury that ruined all but the first quarter of the opening game of his 2009 season. Given his history of production and his ability to avoid injury, having never missed a start, Manning is the safest pick at the quarterback position. The only risk Manning presents is with the Colts wrapping up home-field advantage early and leaving fantasy owners to ponder how much he will play over the season’s final few games.
RB Joseph Addai
Addai rebounded from a miserable 2008 campaign to finish with 1,164 total yards and 13 touchdowns in 2009. That production allowed him to sneak into the top 10 last year. However, he will never be a bell-cow runner, and predicting 13 touchdowns for Addai and more injury problems for backup Donald Brown (11 games and 90 touches as a rookie) in 2010 may not be the safest of bets. Addai will need to hold off Brown to remain fantasy relevant—and he is likely to do so. However, while he may match his yardage totals from a year ago, expect fewer touchdowns, which drops him down to low-end RB2 status.
RB Donald Brown
Brown suffered through a 2009 season of unmet expectations, as the Colts first-round pick failed to stay healthy or provide much competition to Joseph Addai for the starting spot at running back. However, look for an increased role for Brown in his second year, provided he can remain healthy. He displayed some big-play ability as a rookie and may be the Colts future at the position given that Addai is entering a contract year. Brown is a must-have handcuff for Addai owners; but he is one that will have to be taken with a mid-round pick, given his potential to earn the starting role at some point during the season. If Brown can stay healthy, look for him to approach 1,000 total yards and 5-6 touchdowns while splitting time with Addai.
WR Reggie Wayne
The thirty-one-year-old Wayne enters his tenth season as the Colts’ top receiver as he comes off another solid season in 2009. Wayne has been a remarkably consistent performer, topping 1,000 yards in each of the last six seasons and averaging 1,249 yards and almost nine touchdowns per year over that period. He was exceptional for the first nine games of 2009 but trailed off badly during the last seven (with a mere 385 yards and two touchdowns), which begs the question, Is he finally wearing down? The emergence of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, coupled with the return of Anthony Gonzalez, figures to impact Wayne’s production in 2010. Still, he remains a top fantasy wide receiver, and another top 5 fantasy season seems likely.
WR Anthony Gonzalez
Gonzalez is back in Indy after a wasted 2009 campaign, but he may not resume his previous role as a starter on the outside. Pierre Garcon has earned playing time there, and Austin Collie deserves playing time in the slot, so Gonzalez will have to fight for a spot in the starting lineup. However, he’s a solid option for Manning, since he has caught 71.8% of the passes thrown his way during his first three years in the league. While others are clamoring for Garcon and Collie, fantasy owners will be able to get Gonzalez on the cheap in the final rounds of most drafts.
WR Pierre Garcon
Garcon is coming off a solid season in which he emerged as a big-play threat for the Colts after languishing on the bench as a rookie in 2008. The former sixth-round pick finished the year with 765 receiving yards and four touchdowns and improved on those numbers with 251 yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs. Despite all the euphoria regarding Garcon’s production, there should be some concern that he and Peyton Manning were clearly not always on the same page, hence his completion rate of 51%, as opposed to Manning’s overall rate of 68.8%. The Colts prefer reliability, and Anthony Gonzalez may bring more of that to the position, limiting Garcon’s upside unless he hits the playbook hard. Based on his 2009 season, Garcon will be drafted as a fantasy starter in leagues that feature three wide receivers, but he carries significant risk as a top 30 wide receiver. Let others take a shine to Garcon.
WR Austin Collie
Collie enters 2010 coming off a solid rookie season in which he finished with 60 receptions for 676 yards and seven touchdowns. He performed well out of the slot, displaying excellent hands as the season progressed. Collie was exceptional during the playoffs, finishing with 241 yards and two touchdowns through three games. In 2010, He will face competition for playing time from Anthony Gonzalez, who missed much of 2009 with a torn ACL. Look for Collie to hold off Gonzalez and increase his yardage total from last season while remaining a solid option in the red zone, as opposing defenses focus on Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. However, don’t expect him to match his touchdown total of a year ago. He should be a fantasy backup in most leagues.
TE Dallas Clark
Clark is coming off a career year in 2009, where he benefited from the absence of a solid threat opposite Reggie Wayne early in the season. With Anthony Gonzalez injured in the opening game, quarterback Peyton Manning fed the ball to Clark, who finished the season with 132 targets, topping his previous high of 107 in 2008. Clark made the most of his opportunities, finishing the year with 100 receptions for 1,106 yards and ten touchdowns. However, Gonzalez returns from injury and Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have earned significant roles in the team’s offense, so Clark’s opportunities will likely be reduced in 2010. Although he remains a top 5 fantasy tight end, don’t expect him to match his 2009 production in 2010.
By: Dave Stringer — July 15, 2010 @ 10:09 am
 With their first winning season under their belts, the Texans are hoping to build on their 2009 success by securing the franchise’s first playoff berth in 2010.
With a middle-of-the-pack defense and a running game that struggled for most of the season, the Texans rode the coattails of the team’s passing attack to a 9-7 record, narrowly missing the playoffs. Despite losing tight end Owen Daniels in mid-season, quarterback Matt Schaub threw for just under 4,800 yards, with wide receiver Andre Johnson amassing 1,569 receiving yards.
Despite the team’s success last year passing the ball, head coach Gary Kubiak has spent the offseason emphasizing the team’s need to run the ball and move to a more balanced approach on offense. While the Texans finished 1st in passing offense, they struggled to run the ball, ranking 30th in the league and averaging 3.5 yards per carry (also 30th).
With that in mind, the Texans used a second-round pick on running back Ben Tate, who will compete with Arian Foster and Steve Slaton to be the team’s starter. While a running-back-by-committee approach may be the final option, Kubiak would prefer for one of the three to emerge and carry the load running the ball.
While Johnson has sat out some of the team’s OTAs as a way of showing his displeasure with his current contract, he is a solid citizen who is unlikely to let the situation affect his production this coming season. He is perhaps the league’s top receiver, able to use his speed to beat defenders deep and his size to shield them from passes on short and intermediate routes.
Kevin Walter will battle Jacoby Jones for the starting spot opposite Johnson, with Walter’s experience likely to win that battle. Whoever wins the role figures to benefit from the constant double teams that Johnson faces. At tight end, there is concern that Daniels will not be fully recovered on opening day from the torn ACL that ended his 2009 campaign. Daniels was one of the league’s top receiving tight ends before getting hurt.
With Kubiak guiding the team and entering his fifth season as head coach, the Texans are solid playoff contenders in 2010. However, the team’s rushing attack and defense are going to need to step up for that to finally happen for Texans fans.
QB Matt Schaub
Schaub is coming off a season in which he led the NFL in passing yards and was the 3rd-ranked fantasy quarterback. However, he will have difficulty matching his 2009 production in 2010. The team drafted running back Ben Tate in the second round, and he figures to fulfill the lead back role and be the inside runner the team has lacked in recent seasons. In addition, there are concerns about tight end Owen Daniels as he recovers from a torn ACL. Both factors could lead to the Texans having a more balanced run-pass ratio and lead to more running plays in the red zone. Look for Schaub to top 4,000 yards once again, but expect his touchdown passes to decline from the 29 he had in 2009.
RB Ben Tate
The Texans used a second-round pick on Tate with the expectation the rookie will carry the load as the team’s lack back. Look for Tate to get the goal-line work and to be spelled by Arian Foster on early downs, with Steve Slaton being used on passing downs. Tate could be a fantasy surprise if he can earn a significant role in the Texans powerful offense. However, for that to happen he will need to beat out Foster and earn the goal line work, and the Texans will need to avoid playing from behind. While Tate has an opportunity for fantasy success, there is likely too much competition for touches in the Texans offense for him to breakout in 2010. Expect a solid rookie season, but don’t expect him to lead you to fantasy glory.
RB Arian Foster
Reports out of Houston suggest that Foster is having a solid offseason and has earned the right to compete for the starting role in 2010. In fact, he has earned more starting reps during the offseason than any of the team’s other running backs. While your fellow fantasy owners gravitate toward rookie Ben Tate and toward Steve Slaton, it’s possible that a low round pick on Foster could turn into fantasy gold in 2010. It’s worth noting that in the Texans final two games of 2009 against the Dolphins and Patriots, Foster had 216 rushing yards to go along with 26 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, and that Tate missed extensive time during OTAs due to a hamstring injury. At 6’1” and 222 pounds, Foster has the size to be a feature back and be an effective inside runner. He is definitely worth monitoring during the preseason and worth taking a flier on.
RB Steve Slaton
Slaton suffered a sophomore slump during a 2009 in which he had fumbling problems and then a neck injury, which resulted in his being placed on injured reserve. Coming off an exceptional rookie season in which he had 1,282 rushing yards, 377 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns, the hope was that Slaton would solidify himself as one of the league’s top backs. However, that failed to materialize, as Slaton seemed to run tentatively, especially between the tackles. Entering 2010, the Texans plan is to use Arian Foster and rookie second-round pick Ben Tate in the lead back role, while using Slaton on passing downs. Slaton is a bit of a risk due to his neck injury but, if healthy, he should be solid as a change-of-pace and receiving option for the Texans. He’s more attractive in PPR leagues and could even reclaim his role as the team’s starter, although that seems doubtful at the moment.
WR Andre Johnson
Johnson will enter 2010 as the consensus number one ranked fantasy wide receiver courtesy of his exceptional and consistent production during 2008 and 2009. He has topped 1,500 yards and eight touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, and he should match that again in 2010. He is a big, strong, fast wide receiver with excellent hands who excels in every facet of the game. While the Texans will likely be more effective on the ground this year, Johnson will continue to get his fair share of targets and should lead the league in this category for the third year in a row (341 targets combined over the last two years). In redraft leagues, Johnson could be taken as high as fifth overall, after the consensus top four running backs are taken.
WR Kevin Walter
Walter is coming off a disappointing campaign in 2009 in which he finished with 53 receptions for 611 yards and two touchdowns. There were hopes he would build on his 2008 production of 899 yards and eight touchdowns, but he missed two games with a hamstring injury and never really seemed to get into a groove, even when tight end Owen Daniels was lost for the season. The Texans figure to run more in 2010, and Walter will compete for touches in the passing game with Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, and Steve Slaton—and for a starting spot with Jacoby Jones. He signed a long-term contract extension in the offseason, so he figures to hold off Jones and could benefit if Daniels is slow to recover from a torn ACL. However, a breakout season is unlikely at this point in his career.
WR Jacoby Jones
Texans head coach Gary Kubiak says he loves Jones’ potential; but if that’s the case, why did they sign Kevin Walter to a lucrative long-term contract? This is another case of a team putting a solid spin on a player who has failed to develop as they had hoped. Jones possesses blazing speed and certainly showed substantial improvement in 2009, but his upside seems to be that of a deep threat, given the other options on short and intermediate routes. Jones is a talented young wide receiver, but there are better breakout options at the position.
TE Owen Daniels
Daniels was having a phenomenal run in 2009 before he was lost for the season with a torn ACL. He had averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game during the first seven weeks, and he may have finished as the top-ranked fantasy tight end if he had not been injured in Week 8. He is clearly an injury risk heading into 2010, but the Texans figure to have a solid offense again in 2010, with Daniels getting plenty of opportunities in the passing game. Clearly there is some risk here given the injury occurred at the halfway point of last season, but if Daniels is fully recovered by Week 1, he will be in the top 5 in 2010. However, a full recovery by opening day seems unlikely, so fantasy owners should temper their enthusiasm.
TE James Casey
Casey showed some ability with the Texans as a rookie last year and could get some opportunities if Owen Daniels is slow to recover from a torn ACL. While Casey may be only somewhat useful in 2010, he is a decent option in deep keeper leagues given Daniels’ injury history and the fact the Texans have been slow to sign him to a long-term contract extension.
By: Dave Stringer — July 14, 2010 @ 11:36 am
There is a theory in fantasy football that wide receivers are ready to break out during their third year in the league. At that point in their careers, they have fine-tuned their route running, developed chemistry with their quarterback, mastered the playbook, and added the muscle necessary to fight off jams at the line of scrimmage and fight for balls with NFL cornerbacks.
While the debate may rage whether the theory is real or not, the 2010 year certainly offers little hope in proving that it is correct.
That is partially because the 2008 draft did not yield a single wide receiver worthy of being taken in the first round. In addition, of the ten receivers taken in the second round of the draft, only DeSean Jackson has performed well above expectations.
Of the other nine second-round selections, one will spend 2010 on injured reserve, two are unlikely to be on the roster of their current teams, two are approaching bust status, and one will likely be fourth on his team’s depth chart.
Clearly, the prospects of this group of players collectively achieving solid fantasy production in 2010 is marginal at best. In fact, it would not be a total surprise if all of these players, other than Jackson, fail to bust out in 2010.
Here are the rankings with each player’s original team and draft position.
Tier One – Already There
1. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia (2nd) – Remarkably, Jackson was the seventh wide receiver taken in the 2008 draft. If he doesn’t top a third-year wide receiver list, then stop reading.
Tier Two – Opportunity plus Ability
2. Mario Manningham, New York Giants (3rd) – Manningham was a flop as a rookie but came on strong in 2009 with 47 receptions for 882 yards and 5 touchdowns in only 14 games. He’s competing with Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith for playing time, but the Giants have a healthy passing game so he should see plenty of targets.
3. Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis (6th) – Garcon clearly has ability but only caught 51% of his targets last year, in comparison with Peyton Manning’s overall rate of 68.8%. He will compete with Anthony Gonzalez and Austin Collie for opportunities in 2010.
4. Earl Bennett, Chicago (3rd) – Gets the opportunity to play in a Mike Martz offense but is not a dynamic player, lacking speed and not suited to the slot. He’s here based on his projected stats, but there are lower-ranked players with much more upside.
5. Chaz Schilens, Oakland (7th) – Finally gets a decent quarterback in Jason Campbell but will have to fight off Darius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy for playing time. Again, another solid player who figures to produce but lacks upside.
6. Early Doucet, Arizona (3rd) – Doucet played well in the playoffs subbing for an injured Anquan Boldin and now gets an opportunity to replace him in the desert. It won’t be a surprise if he assumes Boldin’s role, with Steve Breaston maintaining his role from past seasons. Unfortunately, Matt Leinart is no Kurt Warner, which limits Doucet’s upside.
7. Eddie Royal, Denver (2nd) – Royal was a complete non-factor in his sophomore year after displaying plenty of potential as a rookie in 2008. With questions at quarterback and a pair of rookies in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, Royal will have to fight to earn playing time in Denver in 2010. He appears to be headed for a role in the slot, which limits his upside.
8. Devin Thomas, Washington (2nd) – With questions swirling around the availability of Santana Moss, due to his connection with a Canadian doctor charged with smuggling and distributing human growth hormone, there is a greater likelihood of a bigger role for Thomas in 2010. Unfortunately, he hasn’t done much when given an opportunity, with only 40 receptions for 445 yards and 3 touchdowns in two years.
 9. Donnie Avery, St. Louis (2nd) – Avery has struggled with injuries, inconsistent route running, and poor quarterback play during his two years with the Rams. At this point, he doesn’t appear to have the ability to develop into a true number one receiver, and his likeliest role is that of a deep threat in St. Louis. With rookie Sam Bradford at quarterback, Avery’s prospects of a breakout season appear remote at best.
Tier Three – Fighting for Opportunity, Hasn’t Shown Much
10. Josh Morgan, San Francisco (6th) – Morgan burst onto the scene during training camp of his rookie year but appears to be the perfect example of a great practice player who fails to produce on game day. With Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis expected to get plenty of targets in 2010, Morgan lacks upside and likely opportunity.
11. Malcolm Kelly, Washington (2nd) – Kelly gets a fresh start with Mike Shanahan, but he’s basically done nothing to suggest that he’s going to develop in 2010, and he plays soft for his size.
12. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay (2nd) – While Nelson hasn’t justified his lofty draft status, he is a quality player caught up in a numbers game in Green Bay. With Greg Jennings and Donald Driver holding down the starting spots, and James Jones having solidified his role as the third receiver, Nelson is left fighting for targets with the other Packers.
13. Steve Johnson, Buffalo (7th) – With Terrell Owens and Josh Reed out of the picture, Johnson is fighting with James Hardy to earn a starting role. Don’t be surprised if he earns it. Unfortunately, the Bills passing offense is pathetic.
14. James Hardy Buffalo (2nd) – Hardy has been a complete non-factor for two years in Buffalo and is behind in his development due to missing all of last offseason, in addition to part of the regular season, with an injury. Fortunately for Hardy, the Bills have little depth at wide receiver; otherwise he might be in danger of being released by Buffalo’s new management.
Tier Four – On the Roster, Fulfilling Marginal Role
15. Davone Bess, Miami (Undrafted) – He’s been productive for two years, but with Brandon Marshall on board, Bess will likely be moved to the slot exclusively in 2010. He’s shifty but not fast and has produced almost no big plays.
16. Harry Douglas, Atlanta (3rd) – Douglas made some dynamic plays as a rookie, but a torn ACL during training camp ended his 2009 season. He’s strictly a slot receiver in a run-based offense, which means he has no fantasy value.
17. Andre Caldwell, Cincinnati (3rd) – Caldwell is another player best suited to the slot in a run-based offense. There’s too much competition in Cincinnati to expect Caldwell to bust out in 2010.
18. Jaymar Johnson, Minnesota (6th) – A special teams player who is buried on the depth chart.
19. Brett Swain, Green Bay (7th) – Mostly a special teams player and clearly no better than fifth on the depth chart.
Hanging on to Roster Spots
Jerome Simpson, Cincinnati (2nd) – This Bengals second-round pick has been a complete bust. Might not earn a roster spot in 2010.
Limas Sweed, Pittsburgh (2nd) – Former second-round pick would have been fighting for his roster spot, but a knee injury landed him on injured reserve for 2010.
Dexter Jackson, Tampa Bay (2nd) – Sense a pattern here? Another former second-round pick who has been a total bust, now in Carolina.
Lavelle Hawkins, Tennessee (4th) – Titans have plenty of depth at wide receiver; fortunately for Hawkins none of it is spectacular.
Keenan Burton, St. Louis (4th) – Can’t stay healthy and will likely have to beat out 2009 fifth-round pick Brooks Foster to earn a spot on the roster.
Kenneth Moore, Carolina (5th) – Six catches in two years and now facing a logjam at wide receiver in Carolina.
Adrian Arrington, New Orleans (7th) – Can’t seem to get off the practice squad.
Matt Slater, New England (5th) – Will be fighting with Sam Aiken, Brandon Tate, and rookie Taylor Price to keep his roster spot in 2010.
Lance Long, Kansas City (undrafted) – Caught some balls in 2010, but the Chiefs brought in the more proven Jerheme Urban, who will likely steal Long’s role.
Nate Hughes, Jacksonville (undrafted) – He runs fast in a straight line. There isn’t much else to add.
Likely Out of the League
By: Dave Stringer — @ 9:48 am
 After an uninspired 2009 campaign, Seattle let Jim Mora go after only one season as the Seahawks head coach, and USC head coach Pete Carroll was hired by rookie general manager John Schneider. The team’s new management duo has spent the offseason putting their stamp on the team’s roster with a flurry of personnel moves that have touched almost all aspects of the team’s roster.
Carroll takes over a Seahawks team that has been in serious decline over the past few seasons and is coming off a 5-11 season that many in the league consider overly flattering given their poor performances and lack of talent. Of the team’s five wins, two came against St. Louis and one against Detroit, the worst and second-worst teams in the league.
The Seahawks’ struggles on offense have been compounded by the team’s declining performance along the offensive line. Perennial Pro Bowl left tackle Walter Jones retired in the offseason, and the team used their first round pick on his replacement, Russell Okung. Seattle doesn’t lack talent across the line, but they haven’t jelled as a unit, partly due to injuries.
Matt Hasselbeck’s last two seasons have been marked by injuries and ineffective play. Charlie Whitehurst was acquired from the Chargers to challenge him and be the team’s future at the position. If Hasselbeck falters or the team drops out of playoff contention, Whitehurst will likely take over as the starter.
Ever since Shaun Alexander became ineffective at the end of his career, the Seahawks have struggled to run the ball. Julius Jones and Justin Forsett return and will battle former Jet Leon Washington, acquired in a trade, for playing time. They all have similar qualities, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if a bigger back is added to the roster before opening day.
The depth chart at wide receiver is littered with aging veterans and unproven youngsters. T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch are on the downside of their careers and coming off disappointing seasons in 2009. Rookie second-round pick Golden Tate and 2009 third-round pick Deon Butler will challenge them. The team also signed former USC product and Lion first-round pick Mike Williams, a reclamation project if there ever was one.
At USC, Carroll’s offenses were noted for their dynamic playmakers and outstanding offensive production. However, the Seahawks lack a true difference-maker on offense, and none of the team’s skill position players are talents that opposing defensive coordinators need to game plan for. Barring a breakout performance by a young player or a career renaissance by one of the team’s veterans, Seattle’s lack of playmakers is likely to cause them to finish amongst the league’s worst offenses in 2010.
QB Matt Hasselbeck
Hasselbeck is coming off a horrendous two-year run of injuries and poor play. He has missed 11 games due to injury and has been largely ineffective when in the lineup, especially against solid defenses. In his last 21 games, he has averaged a little over 200 yards passing per game while throwing 21 touchdowns against 27 interceptions. At thirty-four years of age (thirty-five in September), there are legitimate questions regarding how much Hasselbeck has left. With the Seahawks in rebuilding mode, the running game full of question marks, the team’s wide receivers a mixed bag of aging veterans and unproven young players, and the new management regime trading to get Charlie Whitehurst as the team’s quarterback of the future, Hasselbeck can hardly be considered a quality fantasy option. He’s likely keeping the position warm for Whitehurst and could be on the bench by mid-season.
QB Charlie Whitehurst
Whitehurst was acquired to be the Seahawks quarterback of the future, picked up from the Chargers for a swap of 2010 second-round picks plus the Seahawks third-round selection in the 2011 draft. The Seahawks apparently love his size, arm strength, and athleticism, but some offseason reports indicated that retread J.P. Losman was pushing him to be the team’s backup. Given his lack of playing time during his four NFL seasons (no pass attempts), there’s no way of knowing how Whitehurst would perform even if he were to replace Matt Hasselbeck at some point during the season. Given that, it’s hard to even recommend him for dynasty leagues.
RB Julius Jones
With a new coach in Seattle and Jones coming off two largely disappointing seasons, there was a strong possibility entering the offseason that Jones would be looking for a new team in 2010. When Pete Carroll traded for veteran running backs LenDale White and Leon Washington, Jones’ situation became even more precarious. He got a reprieve when White was released, but Seattle’s new management is clearly looking for better options at the position. It doesn’t help that Justin Forsett is a similar player with a much lower salary. Rumors abound that Marshawn Lynch will be in a Seattle uniform before long, and if that happens, Jones and his $2.5 million base salary will likely be on the street. Jones’ fantasy prospects for 2010 should be classified in the long-shot category.
RB Justin Forsett
Forsett is coming off a quality season in 2009 where he established himself as a solid change-of-pace back due to his speed and ability to make tacklers miss in the open field. Starting in week 10, Forsett received extensive playing time and had surprisingly solid production with 496 yards rushing, 210 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns in eight games. He averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game during that stretch, which, over a full season, would translate into RB2 status. However, given his size, Forsett’s durability is a bit of a question mark and could impact his ability to play a full season. In addition, his touches are likely to decrease once Leon Washington returns to full health. Both of those uncertainties increase Forsett’s risk factor. He should be drafted as a fantasy backup or low-end RB2.
RB Leon Washington
Washington’s trade to Seattle revives his fantasy value after last season’s horrific knee injury, the emergence of Shonn Greene, and the Jets signing of LaDainian Tomlinson to replace Thomas Jones left him off the fantasy landscape in New York. While it’s hard to count on a pass-catching running back coming off a knee injury playing in what figures to be a bad offense, the Seahawks new management team invested a fifth-round draft pick to acquire Washington, and they figure to give their acquisition an opportunity to strut his stuff once he is fully healthy. However, he may not be ready on opening day, and if that happens, he will need to supplant Justin Forsett or Julius Jones once he returns. Monitor Washington’s injury status—if healthy, he’s worth a low-round draft pick in standard leagues and worth taking a flier on in dynasty leagues, especially in PPR formats.
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Last year’s most overhyped wide receiver free agent signing was a bust in his first year with Seattle, failing to top 1,000 yards for the second year in a row and complaining about his lack of touches. He claimed during last offseason that his lack of production was partially due to a rib injury, which apparently hampered him for the first six weeks of 2009. With an unproven offensive line, issues at quarterback, and Nate Burleson now in Detroit, Houshmandzadeh has much to overcome to get back to the solid production that he posted between 2005 and 2007. However, the Seahawks lack talent at wide receiver, he is clearly their top player at the position, and he figures to put up plenty of garbage-time fantasy points in 2010 on a team that will almost certainly struggle. Look for a slight increase on his 2009 production, which should translate into mid-tier WR2 status.
WR Golden Tate
Tate goes to a great situation in Seattle, where the second-round pick will battle veteran retread Deion Branch, 2009 third-round pick Deon Butler, and reclamation project Mike Williams for the starting spot opposite T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Seattle is clearly in rebuilding mode, and given Branch’s injury history and salary, Tate could be starting on opening day. His offseason wasn’t without incident due to his doughnut caper, and that lack of maturity makes him more of a question mark than previously thought. However, he figures to get extensive playing time as a rookie, and his ability to make tacklers miss and gain yards after the catch are traits that were sorely lacking in Seattle in 2009. The quarterback situation isn’t optimal, which makes Tate a better target in dynasty leagues than in redraft formats.
WR Deion Branch
Branch has been a bust for the Seahawks since they traded their 2006 first-round pick to acquire him. During his four years in Seattle, Branch has averaged 558 yards receiving and three and a half touchdowns, hardly justifying his acquisition. With the team in a rebuilding mode and having acquired T.J. Houshmandzadeh in free agency last offseason, and also wanting to find playing time for 2010 second-round pick Golden Tate and 2009 third-round pick Deon Butler, Branch will need to have a strong preseason to make the roster. It doesn’t help matters that he is scheduled to make $5.5 million and that the team is also trying to resurrect the career of former first-round bust Mike Williams. The Seahawks are going to be behind plenty and somebody has to catch some balls, but Branch might not be around on opening day to make the most of that opportunity.
TE John Carlson
Carlson is coming off a mildly disappointing sophomore season in which he failed to improve upon a promising rookie campaign. He has a new head coach in Pete Carroll, who figures to be more imaginative on offense. However, the offensive line remains a question mark, and if he has to pass protect as much as he did last season, his production will be impacted. Look for Carlson to post better numbers in 2010, but he will likely be a borderline fantasy starter. There is some breakout potential, though, given the team’s lack of proven talent at wide receiver.
By: Mike Krueger — July 12, 2010 @ 12:52 pm
 The Cardinals have had a successful three-year run since hiring head coach Ken Whisenhunt, winning eight, nine, and ten games and going to the 2008 Super Bowl, only to lose to the Steelers on a last-minute touchdown.
The road gets decidedly tougher in 2010, however, as retirement and free agency have robbed the team of many of their key performers.
Topping the list is the loss of Kurt Warner to retirement. The future Hall of Fame quarterback enjoyed a career renaissance in Arizona, playing at a Pro Bowl level and providing the franchise with a swagger they never had before. Based on the 2009 performances of Matt Leinart and free agent acquisition Derek Anderson, the Cardinals are likely to experience a large dropoff at the quarterback position.
The Cardinals also lost pass-rushing linebacker Bertrand Berry to retirement and defensive stalwarts Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle to free agency. Anquan Boldin, who was one half of the league’s top receiving duo, was traded away, as was starting cornerback Bryant McFadden.
On offense, the Cardinals are likely to turn to the running game far more frequently in 2010, relying on the impressive young tandem of Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower. Wells is a punishing, downhill runner with enough speed to get outside, but he had ball security issues as a rookie in 2009. Hightower is an excellent receiver and, while lacking speed, is an above-average runner with an ability to make tacklers miss.
Despite the loss of Boldin, the Cardinals are well-stocked at wide receiver. They feature perhaps the league’s most talented wide receiver in Larry Fitzgerald, as well as Steve Breaston, who topped 1,000 yards in a backup role in 2008. Early Doucet is a promising player who came on late last season and in the playoffs. His game is much like Boldin’s; built on power, toughness, and an ability to get open on short and intermediate routes.
As in prior years, the Cardinals depth chart at tight end is a black hole in terms of what it brings to the passing game. None of their tight ends offer much upside, and all are more adept at blocking.
With Whisenhunt at the controls, the Cardinals have reached a new level of respect not previously experienced by the franchise. Expectations are deservedly lower in 2010 than in prior years, but they could surprise if Leinart proves he has matured and the defense can hold up its end of the bargain.
QB Matt Leinart
Now that Kurt Warner has decided to retire, the Cardinals offense could see a change in philosophy, switching to a ground game featuring Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower. The Cardinals passed the ball almost 62% of the time in 2009, ranking 12th in passing (251 yards per game) and 28th in rushing (93.4 yards per game). With Leinart at the helm, you have to figure the passing numbers will decrease in 2010. Warner’s accuracy, ability to read defenses, and decision-making allowed him to succeed in the desert. Those are all qualities that Leinart has not displayed during his time under center. He does have at his disposal one of the best targets in the game in Larry Fitzgerald, which makes Leinart a great upside pick as your backup fantasy QB.
RB Beanie Wells
Although Wells did become the feature back down the stretch in 2009, he split carries with Tim Hightower for most of last season. Consequently, he’ll be a nice upside pick in 2010, but you’ll likely overpay for his true value. Hightower will continue to receive carries on first and second down and will play extensively on third downs. While there is some concern that Hightower will get the goal line work, it’s worth noting that during the final four games of last season Wells had 14 red zone touches and Hightower had only 6. The addition of Alan Faneca on the line doesn’t hurt and should lead to improved numbers for the Cardinals running game as a whole.
RB Tim Hightower
Hightower heads into training camp as the starter based on experience, but expect him to share carries with Beanie Wells. While there are no guarantees that Hightower will open the season as the team’s starter, he will receive extensive playing time both as a change-of-pace back and as a target in the passing game. With Matt Leinart rather than Kurt Warner starting at quarterback, both Arizona running backs should see a significant amount of work in 2010. Hightower’s fantasy value shines in PPR leagues—his 63 catches out of the backfield a year ago was second only to Ray Rice, and he has 96 receptions over his first two years in the league. If the Arizona offense doesn’t experience a large dropoff with Leinart under center, Hightower shapes up as an excellent flex option in leagues that employ the position.
WR Larry Fitzgerald
Despite finishing with just 1,092 yards last season, Fitzgerald finished fourth in points among fantasy wide receivers thanks to his 13 touchdowns. The loss of Warner may not impact Fitzgerald as much as you might think. Warner very rarely threw deep balls last season, and while Leinart’s accuracy remains a question mark, it’s likely that Fitzgerald will see more deep opportunities with Leinart under center. He’s still a feared weapon in the league and the Cardinals will use him as such. Expect Fitzgerald to once again finish in the top five among fantasy wideouts.
WR Steve Breaston
In 2010 Breaston will have a chance to improve upon his 55 catches for 712 yards and 3 touchdowns of a year ago as he moves into the starting lineup opposite Larry Fitzgerald. Breaston has put up solid production in Arizona’s pass-based offense over the last two years, where he benefitted from the attention that Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin received. However, there is some concern Breaston may struggle against starting cornerbacks, and his production will also be impacted if the Cardinals shift to a more run-focused offense, as expected. His value is no better than a WR3 in most fantasy formats.
WR Early Doucet
The loss off Anquan Boldin has opened the door for Doucet. He has struggled through most of his first two years in the league, finding it hard to gain playing time in a talented Cardinals wide receiver rotation. He finished with two solid games during the playoffs last season and will fill the third-wideout role in the Cardinals passing attack. However, with Breaston holding down a starting spot, it’s tough to project Doucet as anything better than a fantasy WR4. Still, monitor his status in training camp. There is a possibility he could unseat Breaston for Boldin’s old starting position given that, of the two players, his game more closely resembles Boldin’s.
TE Ben Patrick
You have better options. Arizona rarely uses the tight end in their passing game; Patrick led all Cardinal tight ends with a mere 146 yards and two touchdowns. Unless Matt Leinart becomes a check-down king, Patrick will be useless for fantasy purposes. Stay away…very far away.
By: Tony Nowak — July 10, 2010 @ 11:41 am
Overvalued
- DL Chris Long, STL – he’s proven he isn’t much of a pass rush threat. Don’t hold out hope he’ll ever post double-digit sacks.
- DL Dwight Freeney, IND – back-to-back years with double-digit sacks, but more one-dimensional than ever and an injury-prone 30-year old who hasn’t played all 16 games since 2006. His replacement (Jerry Hughes) was drafted this year and should steal snaps.
- DL Randy Starks, MIA – after a career high 7 sacks last year, he moves to NT for at least the first 8 games to replace the suspended Jason Ferguson. He’ll be lucky to get half as many sacks this year.
- LB London Fletcher, WAS – a Fantasy Hall of Famer for his consistent stellar production, but he’s 35 and moving to a 3-4 defense this year.
- LB Brian Cushing, HOU – hurts fantasy owners with his four-game suspension and let’s see him repeat his numbers off the juice.
- LB Thomas Howard, OAK – appears to be the odd man out after the addition of Kamerion Wimbley. Wimbley and Trevor Scott have been working as the starters on the outside.
- LB A.J. Hawk, GB – his numbers have gone the wrong way fast after an outstanding rookie year in 2006, which some rank as if they think he can achieve again. Not a good fit in the 3-4.
- DB Charles Woodson, GB – he put up ridiculous numbers last year, no way he can repeat them, especially since he’s remained uncharacteristically healthy for the two years now and turns 34 this year.
Undervalued
- DL Will Smith, NO – always a good tackle producer, he quietly posted a career-high 13.5 sacks last year. An exceptional athlete and just 28, looks like a late bloomer as a pass rusher and is under the radar.
- DL Aaron Kampman, JAX – returns to 4-3 DE after a failed experiment in converting to 3-4 OLB with Green Bay. A double-digit sack season is likely if his knee is OK.
- DL Kroy Biermann, ATL – former first-round pick Jamaal Anderson is officially a bust and now moves inside to make room for Biermann to start opposite John Abraham.
- DL Chris Clemons, SEA – the only pass rush threat on a team anorexic at the position.
- LB Jonathan Goff, NYG – looks to have the inside track to being their new full-time MLB and has impressed in spring.
- LB Derrick Johnson, KC – after a year in the doghouse of a new regime, he remains their most talented linebacker and was back with the first team in spring workouts.
- LB Geno Hayes, TB – a year ago the team was ready to move a safety to WLB instead of giving him a chance. Now he’s a top-20 LB who should post better numbers this year. Look for SLB Quincy Black to breakout this year, as well.
- DB Charles Tillman, CHI – numbers were a bit down last year. The addition of Julius Peppers to help the pass rush will create more opportunities for the secondary and Tillman is already one of the best players in the league at creating turnovers.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 9:43 am
 The Bucs retained general manager Mark Dominik and head coach Raheem Morris, despite a rather underwhelming first year. The rookie duo made many poor decisions in 2009, from firing offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski prior to the season, to relieving defensive coordinator Jim Bates ten games into the season. However, the Bucs salvaged a bit of respectability by winning two of their final three games to finish 3-13 on the season.
In 2010, the rebuilding project continues. Gone are veterans Antonio Bryant, Byron Leftwich, Will Allen, and Arron Sears. The most significant veteran acquisition has been wide receiver Reggie Brown, picked up in a trade with the Eagles. However, Brown was benched in Philadelphia and is coming off the worst year of his career.
Clearly, the Bucs are relying heavily on the draft. It remains to be seen whether the club will risk the future of second-year quarterback Josh Freeman by not providing him with a veteran, top-tier wide receiver to work with.
Tight end Kellen Winslow is a solid receiver, but his long-term future is a question mark given the numerous knee surgeries he has undergone. The depth chart at wide receiver features a pair of talented rookies in Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams, veteran underachievers in Michael Clayton, Maurice Stovall, and Reggie Brown, as well as Sammie Stroughter, whose future may be in the slot.
Given the questions marks in the passing game, look for offensive coordinator Greg Olson to run a ball-control offense featuring a heavy dose of running plays. Cadillac Williams had a compelling comeback season in 2009, but he lacked explosiveness, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. Derrick Ward was a bust in his first season in Tampa Bay but will be given an opportunity to earn more playing time in 2010.
While the Bucs have added some talented youngsters on the offensive side of the ball, they lack proven playmakers on offense and will struggle to move the ball on a consistent basis. Unless they get some major contributions from Williams and Ward, look for them to be among the league’s worst offensive teams in 2010.
QB Josh Freeman
The Bucs love Freeman’s potential and he is coming off a reasonably solid rookie season that was marked by some inconsistent play. Over his nine starts, he had three multi-touchdown games that were offset by five games with multiple interceptions, including a game in which he threw five picks against Carolina. He showed he has a strong arm, an ability to escape the rush, and the resourcefulness to take off running when plays break down. In 2010, he gains a pair of rookie wide receivers in Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams but loses Antonio Bryant. Quarterbacks generally need reliable receivers to be productive, and that’s not likely to happen for Freeman this year. He has the potential to be a fantasy starter in 2011. This year, not so much. Consider him as a prospect for dynasty leagues, but he isn’t worth drafting in most re-draft leagues
RB Cadillac Williams
Williams was surprisingly healthy in 2009, displaying a solid burst in many games. However, the Bucs were not able to generate much rushing offense against the league’s better run defenses. While Williams’ comeback story was a compelling one, there is likely little hope of him reaching the potential he showed early in his career given his injury issues. Despite his lengthy injury history, he managed to rank 28th among running backs last year, which is a solid accomplishment given the Bucs struggles on offense. However, while the Bucs offense can’t be as bad as it was last year and the young offensive line should improve, it is doubtful the improvement will be strong enough to propel Williams into fantasy starter status. Consider him as a potential low-end RB2, though he really should be drafted as a backup running back considering the Bucs prospects on offense.
RB Derrick Ward
Ward was a big flop last year after coming over from the Giants. In New York, he looked like a solid back with an ability to make tacklers miss and gain tough yards running inside. In Tampa Bay, he looked tentative and was brought down too easily by defenders. He finished the year with 559 total yards and three touchdowns, a far cry from his production in New York as a backup. Ward is now clearly stuck behind Cadillac Williams, although he is only a Williams injury away from significant playing time. And we all know Cadillac’s injury history well. Unless he gets consistent touches (which didn’t happen last year), he has little fantasy use, and handcuffing Williams may not be worthwhile given the Bucs anemic offense.
Arrelious Benn
The Bucs second round pick has the size, speed, and run-after-the-catch ability to be a number one wide receiver in the league. However, he is a little raw and needs time to refine his game. In 2010, given the Bucs lack of wide receiver depth, he is virtually guaranteed a spot in the starting lineup on opening day. He’s also virtually guaranteed to be average, with Josh Freeman leading a Bucs offense that relies on young talent. With Freeman entering his second year, Benn won’t be a starting caliber fantasy receiver this year; but does have upside next year. Check back in 2011.
WR Sammie Stroughter
Stroughter played well as a rookie in 2009, notching 31 receptions for 334 yards and a touchdown before breaking his foot late in the season. He played mostly out of the slot last year but is competing for a starting spot outside in 2010. Given the Bucs lack of proven playmakers at the position, it’s possible he could start outside and work out of the slot in multiple receiver sets. While he may end up starting, his future will likely be as a slot receiver and a returner. He’s worth keeping your eye on in the preseason but is likely waiver wire material in 2010.
WR Mike Williams
Talent-wise, the Bucs got a steal in the fourth round of this year’s draft when Williams was on the board when they selected. However, there is a reason first-round talent is available in the fourth round, and it has everything to do with maturity. If the light goes on for Williams, he could have a solid career in the league. Given his off-the-field problems, the odds of Williams showing the maturity and dedication to produce during his rookie season are pretty low. At 6’1” and 220 pounds, Williams has excellent size to go along with excellent speed, and that makes him worth taking a flier on in dynasty leagues. Barring an excellent preseason, he isn’t worth drafting in re-draft leagues.
WR Michael Clayton
Remarkably, the Buccaneers signed Clayton to a five-year, $25 million contract prior to the 2009 season—this for a player coming off a 38-reception, 484-yard, one-touchdown season. In return, Clayton gave the Bucs the worst year of his career, producing 16 receptions for 230 yards and a score. With the team having used its first and fourth round draft picks on Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams, and having acquired former Eagle Reggie Brown in a trade, there are clear signs that the Bucs plan on revamping their wide receiver corps. Holdovers Sammie Stroughter and Maurice Stovall also remain on the roster. With Benn, Williams, and Stroughter guaranteed roster spots, and Stovall showing some promise last year as a receiver and also as a strong special teams contributor, Clayton’s roster spot is clearly in jeopardy.
TE Kellen Winslow
Winslow had a solid season in 2009, maintaining his status as a starting tight end for his fantasy owners. However, his offseason has been hit-and-miss with the departure of Antonio Bryant to the Bengals and another knee surgery, the fifth of his six-year career. Bryant’s loss means Winslow is clearly at the top of the pecking order among the team’s wide receivers, but that advantage may be offset by the extra attention he will receive from opposing defenses, given the Bucs’ weak group of wide receivers. Winslow racks up the yardage totals when healthy but has never topped five touchdown receptions in a year. Which begs the question: Why should anyone bank on that happening in 2010, considering the team’s young, raw talent on offense? They shouldn’t, and neither should you. Winslow will remain a starting caliber tight end, but it would be a total shock if he were to somehow sneak into the top five.
By: Dave Stringer — July 9, 2010 @ 1:16 pm
 The Saints are coming off a magical Super Bowl championship season and have the potential to get back to the big game in 2010. Their 31-17 defeat of the Colts showcased their significant offensive talents as well as an opportunistic, play-making defense with its own scoring ability.
As with all Super Bowl champions, the Saints were faced with the prospect of losing several key pieces, and gone from last year’s squad are Jamaal Brown, Scott Fujita, Mike Bell, and Charles Grant. On offense, Jermon Bushrod played well with Brown injured for all of 2009, and Bell will be replaced by a promising young power runner in Lynell Hamilton.
While Saints head coach Sean Payton’s reputation is that of a play-caller who likes to feature the pass, the team finished sixth in the league in rushing last year while running the ball over 46 percent of the time.
Expect more of the same in 2010 with Drew Brees leading an offensive attack that is almost unstoppable. The Saints have a diverse group of skill-position players on offense, and Payton has shown a knack for creating mismatches with various formations and by spreading the ball around.
At running back, despite lacking game-breaking ability, Pierre Thomas has proven to be an above-average player in almost all aspects of the game, although his short-yardage running leaves something to be desired. Despite Reggie Bush’s inability to fulfill the potential most thought he had coming out of college, he has been productive when healthy, although he is not as durable as the team would like.
In the passing game, Marques Colston has proven to be a solid, consistent performer despite lacking top-end speed. Robert Meachem emerged from his slumber to be a key performer last year and could be ready to step it up a notch in 2010. Devery Henderson provides a deep threat, and the team is hopeful that Lance Moore can return to the form he showed in 2008.
With the team returning all of its key skill-position players except for Bell, the Saints should once again be the top offensive team in the league.
QB Drew Brees
Welcome to land of 2010’s top-ranked fantasy quarterback: The land of numerous, talented wide receivers; of tight end depth charts that run three deep; of running backs that excel in all areas of the game; and of offensive lines that, due to their incredible depth, can afford to trade former first-round picks coming off injury. Maybe that is a bit of an exaggeration—but not much of one. The Saints seem to find talented players in the draft, but they also have an ability to unearth players that weren’t drafted (Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore, etc.), all to Brees’ good fortune. With Peyton Manning and Tom Brady advancing in age, Brees might be the surest thing at the quarterback position in fantasy football. All of the team’s skill-position players return, save for Mike Bell, who will be replaced by Lynell Hamilton. Brees is at the top of his game, playing in an offense that creates mismatches all over the field due to the talents of the players and the coaching of Sean Payton. Not much should change in 2010. The icing on the cake is that Brees is remarkably consistent (13 games with over 250 yards passing to go along with 12 games with multiple passing touchdowns). The Saints failed to take a running back in the draft, and the offensive line returns all five starters, so they figure to match their passing production from a year ago. That will make Brees the equivalent of fantasy gold. Think middle of the first round in re-draft leagues.
RB Pierre Thomas
While Thomas isn’t going to be confused with the most talented running backs in the league, his situation is about as good as it gets for fantasy purposes. He is the lead back on perhaps the league’s best offense that returns with all of its key pieces. In addition, his top backup (Mike Bell) left town and the team’s other backup (Reggie Bush) is an injury-prone player best suited in a receiving role. The committee backfield keeps the status of Thomas at RB2, but he has huge upside. The Saints lost Mike Bell but ignored the position in the draft, and Lynell Hamilton is no threat to eat into Thomas’s carries, other than perhaps taking some goal-line work. Low risk, high reward, great offense. What’s not to like? If he can win the short-yardage job, look out.
RB Reggie Bush
On the positive side, Bush matched his career high in touchdowns last year, and the Saints decided to keep him despite his outrageous salary. On the negative side, his touches have declined through three straight years, hitting 117 last year—and the Saints offense has not missed a beat. Granted, that trend of declining touches may reverse in 2010 with the departure of Mike Bell. Given that Bush has failed to live up to his lofty draft status and is coming off his worst year in the league, 2010 will be the first year in which he will not be drafted before he should be. That gives him the potential to be a value pick, especially in PPR leagues. While Bush has been injury-prone, he has produced when in the lineup (career average of 10.7 fantasy points per game). While he is worth taking a flier on in the mid-rounds, don’t reach too much given the risk his declining use in New Orleans presents.
RB Lynell Hamilton
Pierre Thomas owners better take note of Lynell Hamilton. With Reggie Bush better suited to take limited rushing touches out of the backfield, Hamilton figures to receive most of the team’s rushing attempts if Thomas were to get injured. The Saints thought enough of Hamilton to not match the modest restricted-free-agent offer sheet Mike Bell received from the Eagles, so expect Hamilton to carve out a role with the team in 2010. While he may not approach Bell’s 2009 production, he may eat into Thomas’s goal line work, and he is worth taking a flier on in the later rounds of re-draft leagues.
WR Marques Colston
Colston is a dynamite talent who suffers fantasy-wise from playing on a team with so many solid offensive skill-position players. On a lesser team, he would likely be in the top 10 in the league in targets, but playing for New Orleans he ranked 26th in that category. Despite the lack of targets, he has been productive when healthy, topping 1,000 yards three times in four years, only missing the mark in 2008 when he missed five games due to injury. He has also been a touchdown machine with 33 scores in only 57 career games. Colston’s solid, consistent production makes him a borderline WR1 in most leagues but leaves him with a lack of upside given the team’s other talented offensive skill-position players. It’s easy to like him, but hard to like him a lot due to his limited opportunities.
WR Robert Meachem
Meachem is coming off a solid year after struggling during his first two years in the league. The 2007 first-round pick proved to be a big play threat with 45 receptions for 722 yards and 9 touchdowns. He has all the tools and a major upside playing in the Saints offense but needs to be more consistent (eight games with five or fewer fantasy points last year) so that the coaches gain the confidence to make him a bigger part of the game. Entering his fourth season, maybe the light will stay on more frequently. He underwent surgery in May to repair torn cartilage on the second toe of his left foot, so that situation should be monitored, although he is expected to be ready for the start of training camp. Look for an increased role for Meachem at the expense of Devery Henderson.
WR Devery Henderson
With Henderson, what you see is what you get. He’s fast and he plays on one of the best passing offenses in the league, but he doesn’t go over the middle. Because of that, his fantasy upside is dependent on touchdowns, and he doesn’t score many of those. He had two scores last year and has eight over the last three years. In six years, his highest fantasy points per game is 8.0. With Robert Meachem an emerging threat and Lance Moore and Reggie Bush both healthy, there’s no reason for him to surpass those numbers in 2010, but plenty of reasons why he won’t.
TE Jeremy Shockey
Shockey put up solid production when he was healthy, finishing with 48 receptions for 569 yards and 3 touchdowns despite battling injuries (missing two games and playing hurt in a number of others). It was a nice bounce-back season for Shockey, who was a disappointment during his first year with the team in 2008. Even though Shockey played well, the Saints chose to use their third-round pick on Miami University tight end Jimmy Graham. In addition, the Saints have former Patriot David Thomas who played well last season in his first chance at extended playing time. With a $3.8 million salary, it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if the Saints decide that Shockey’s production can be replaced by Thomas and Graham. If he remains in New Orleans, he shapes up as no better than a fantasy backup.
TE David Thomas
Thomas showed surprising receiving ability last year in limited opportunities despite being a bust earlier in his career in New England. Thomas is a player that could be useful if given an opportunity. If the Saints were to save costs by chopping salary and going with Thomas and rookie James Graham, Thomas has the potential to be a useful fantasy option in 2010. On the flip side, if the Saints keep all three of their tight ends, Thomas’s playing time may decrease due to the presence of Graham and Shockey. The sword cuts both ways.
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