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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — May 4, 2010 @ 2:50 pm
With the free agency portion of the offseason nearly complete and the NFL rookie draft in the rear view mirror, it’s time to update my 2010 quarterback rankings.
The initial rankings noted the significant number of solid fantasy performances last season and there’s little reason to doubt a repeat in 2010. The biggest developments since my initial rankings, published in early-March, were as follows:
- Ben Roethlisberger’s four to six game suspension,
- Brandon Marshall traded to the Miami Dolphins,
- Donovan McNabb traded to the Washington Redskins,
- Jason Campbell subsequently being traded to the Oakland Raiders,
- St. Louis Rams drafting Sam Bradford, and
- Brett Favre’s recent announcement that he requires ankle surgery.
The only potential major issue to be resolved before training camp is where former Rams quarterback Marc Bulger signs. The Pittsburgh Steelers seemed like a logical destination but they picked up Byron Leftwich from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Teams currently thought to be interested in Bulger include the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals, with the Cardinals an intriguing option given the question marks surrounding Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson.
Each player’s prior ranking is noted in parentheses after the current ranking.
1. (1) Aaron Rodgers, GB
Fantasy football’s top ranked QB from 2009 returns to the top spot for 2010. What propels him to the top of the projections is his rushing ability (304 yards and five TD last year).
2. (4) Drew Brees, NO
Moves from four to two. The Saints failed to take a running back in the draft and lost Mike Bell to the Eagles, so they figure to match their passing production from a year ago.
3. (2) Matt Schaub, HOU
Schaub led the NFL in passing yards last year but moves down a notch due to the drafting of running back Ben Tate and concerns about Owen Daniels production as he returns to full health.
4. (3) Peyton Manning, IND
He’s fourth because he usually gets a game or two off at the end of the season. Otherwise, he’d be my second ranked quarterback.
5. (6) Philip Rivers, SD
The drafting of Ryan Mathews causes Rivers’ projected points to drop but he moves up a notch due to the trade of Donovan McNabb, my original fifth ranked QB, to the Redskins.
6. (9) Tony Romo, DAL
Coming off a top 5 fantasy season and moves up two notches due to the addition of a new toy on offense in rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant.
7. (8) Jay Cutler, CHI
He’s going to have to live with the team’s current crop of wide receivers but the Mike Martz factor propels him to the seven spot.
8. (11) Tom Brady, NE
Brady moves back into the top ten with two others falling and the addition of Torry Holt as a decent veteran to play outside with Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Still, there are issues at tight end with an aging Alge Crumpler and a pair of rookies.
9. (10) Eli Manning, NYG
No fancy additions in the draft but Eli moves up a spot due to McNabb and Roethlisberger moving down (drops behind Brady). Nice upside at wide receiver in Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham and no additions to the depth chart at running back so there’s little reason to think they will run significantly more in 2010.
10. (NR) Kevin Kolb, PHI
Kolb passed for over 300 yards in both games he started last season and benefits from a solid supporting cast. He is a bit of a risk due to his lack of playing time but also possesses major upside and is a great option for dynasty leagues. Kolb will routinely be compared to Aaron Rodgers in his first year as a starter by fantasy pundits leading up to the start of the season.
11. (13) Joe Flacco, BAL
Anquan Boldin was a nice addition and Derrick Mason’s re-signing was icing on the cake but this is still a run first team with an aging Todd Heap at tight end.
12. (12) Brett Favre, MIN
Sixth ranked fantasy quarterback last year but hard to believe he can duplicate his performance coming off ankle surgery and being a year older. There’s a risk factor here that’s hard to ignore.
13. (18) Alex Smith, SF
Moves up courtesy of a pair of first round offensive lineman in Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati. The 49ers’ offense should surprise in 2010 given the young talent on the roster.
14. (5) Donovan McNabb, WAS
McNabb was ranked fifth previously assuming he would benefit from having perhaps the best young group of offensive skill position players in the league in Philadelphia. There is a big drop off in the talent surrounding him in Washington.
15. (17) Matthew Stafford, DET
Nate Burleson adds a nice deep threat opposite Calvin Johnson and the addition of rookie first round pick Jahvid Best reduces the concerns about the running attack as Kevin Smith fights his way back from injury. Tony Scheffler’s acquisition also provides insurance in case Brandon Pettigrew isn’t 100% at the start of the season.
16. (15) Matt Ryan, ATL
The Falcons rely on the run and there were no fancy additions in the draft. Unfortunately for Ryan, he has to rely on Michael Jenkins once again as his second receiver opposite Roddy White.
17. (19) Vince Young, TEN
Played well last year but still has to be considered a boom or bust candidate. Damian Williams was added in the draft but the team figures to rely on an out of shape Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and Justin Gage once again in 2010.
18. (16) David Garrard, JAC
The Jaguars ignored the wide receiver in the draft so Garrard has to hope one of Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard or Tiquan Underwood develops opposite Mike Walker. Not much upside here.
19. (26) Mark Sanchez, NYJ
Sanchez figures to improve on a decent rookie season and benefits from the team’s trade for Santonio Holmes as well as the team’s ability to bring in a veteran running back to replace Thomas Jones.
20. (25) Chad Henne, MIA
Henne moves up five spots courtesy of the Brandon Marshall trade. The Dolphins will run plenty in 2010 but Marshall will open it up for the team’s other wide receivers as well as provide a deep threat and plenty of yards after the catch.
21. (24) Matt Leinart, ARI
Leinart will likely be drafted before he should be. He loses Boldin and the offense figures to run much more this year than they did in 2009.
22. (20) Carson Palmer, CIN
The Bengals are going to run heavily again in 2010 and Palmer will almost certainly be drafted before he should be based on his name recognition and past fantasy achievements.
23. (14) Jason Campbell, OAK
It’s worth noting that the Raiders passing offense was significantly better last year when JaMarcus Russell was on the bench in favour of Bruce Gradkowski or Charlie Frye. Campbell is much better than either of those two. Unfortunately, there’s no number one wide receiver.
24. (23) Josh Freeman, TB
Freeman gains a pair of rookie wide receivers in Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams, so he’s looking decent for 2011. This year, not so much.
25. (7) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
It was a career year for Big Ben in 2009 but he’s facing a four to six game suspension, loses Holmes and the Steelers figure to run more in 2010.
26. (22) Matt Cassel, KC
Unless scatback/slot receiver Dexter McCluster provides a major shot in the arm to the offense, Cassell is destined for fantasy irrelevance. There is little upside here.
27. (27) Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
Hasselbeck is likely keeping the position warm for Charlie Whitehurst.
28. (21) Kyle Orton, DEN
Orton was okay last year but loses Marshall and will likely have to rely on a pair of rookie wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. It will come as no surprise if Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow gets a shot early in 2010.
29. (NR) Sam Bradford, STL
There is no competition in St. Louis but loads of question marks at wide receiver and tight end. There is some upside at receiver but it is difficult to forecast any breakouts in 2010.
30. (29) Matt Moore, CAR
Moore’s prospects got a lot less exciting due to Jimmy Clausen’s presence. Actually, I wasn’t that excited to begin with.
31. (NR) Jake Delhomme, CLE
He’s been horrible for the last season and a half and the Browns depth chart at wide receiver is absolutely scary.
32. (31) Trent Edwards, BUF
Two people in NFL management circles think Edwards is a starting caliber quarterback and they happen to the Bills head coach and general manager. Edwards wins the lottery on that one but he won’t win any fantasy games for you, that’s for sure.
33. (NR) Charlie Whitehurst, SEA
Whitehurst is probably the only player likely to enter the season as a backup but almost certainly guaranteed to be starting by midseason.
The following players dropped off the rankings from last time:
NR. (28) Brady Quinn, DEN
NR. (30) Marc Bulger, FA
NR. (32) Bruce Gradkowski, OAK
NR. (33) JaMarcus Russell, OAK
NR. (34) Seneca Wallace, CLE
NR. (35) A.J. Feeley, STL
By: Dave Stringer — April 21, 2010 @ 11:22 pm
The NFL announced that Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will receive a six game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.
The suspension comes as a result of Roethlisberger being involved in two separate police investigations alleging sexual assaults within a nine month period. The league ordered Roethlisberger to undergo a comprehensive behavioural evaluation and the outcome of that evaluation as well as his conduct prior to the season will determine whether to reduce the suspension to four games.
The suspension is a huge blow to a Steelers team that was expected to compete with the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. Without Roethlisberger available for at least four games, a Steelers squad that came within a game of a playoff berth in 2009 faces tougher odds of qualifying for a 2010 post-season berth.
In addition, reports indicate that the Steelers are willing to listen to trade offers for Roethlisberger provided they receive a top ten pick in the upcoming rookie draft. Of the teams that possess those picks, only the Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars might consider pursuing a trade with the Steelers. The Cleveland Browns would likely have interest but a trade between the AFC North foes is a remote possibility.
Fantasy Impact
Roethlisberger is coming off his best season as a pro and finished as the eighth-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2009. The Steelers moved to a more pass-based offense last year with three solid wide receivers in Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and second year speedster Mike Wallace.
However, Holmes was traded to the Jets and the team is expected to move to more of ground based attack in 2010.
Nonetheless, his fantasy prospects for 2010 were still solid but are now clearly diminished with the suspension. Assuming a four game suspension, drafting Roethlisberger becomes costly considering he offers zero in return to start the season, and risky unless you plan on having three quarterbacks on your roster during the suspension.
The biggest winner from a fantasy perspective is running back Rashard Mendenhall, who figures to see an increased workload early in the season. He moves up a few spots and into the top ten at running back, ranked ninth.
The biggest fantasy loser from the suspension is obviously Roethlisberger but Ward, Wallace and tight end Heath Miller also move down in the rankings with backup quarterback Dennis Dixon the likely replacement.
Dixon doesn’t have Roethlisberger’s accuracy or touch on deep balls. Expect teams to play the Steelers wide receivers tight on short and intermediate routes, at least until Dixon proves capable of hitting his wideouts deep.
Wallace was considered a breakout candidate and still should be but he moves to WR4 status given his bread and butter is big plays. Ward isn’t expected to see much of a drop but fantasy owners should be leery of drafting him as a WR2. With concerns about his age and now the quarterback play for at least four games, he looks much more attractive as a WR3.
Miller is coming off a career year in which he finished with 789 yards and six touchdowns, good enough to be the ninth ranked fantasy tight end. He moves from being a borderline starter to a solid backup for fantasy purposes.
By: Dave Stringer — April 20, 2010 @ 10:06 am
After posting my initial wide receiver rankings for the 2010 fantasy football season, there was a lot of feedback from fellow owners in my fantasy leagues that Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald was ranked far too low at 11th.
Subsequently, my one-man mock draft came out and it had Fitzgerald being selected with the 12th pick in the third round. Since it was only a three round mock, he was the last player chosen.
More negative feedback followed although some of it did admit that at least my reasoning made a little sense, a backhanded compliment to be sure.
Let’s examine the case that was made for moving Fitzgerald down the wide receiver rankings.
The wide receiver ranking article commented that:
Talent wise, he is definitely higher. Rankings wise, you have to move him down based on the departures of Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin.
The mock draft article commented that:
He’s a bargain at this spot but hard to move up given the doubts about Matt Leinart’s ability to produce at quarterback. [Fitz] had the 15th most receiving yards in the league in 2009 but was the fourth ranked fantasy wide receiver courtesy of his 13 touchdowns.
Here are Fitzgerald’s statistics over the last three years with Warner largely at the helm of a potent Cardinals offense:
| Larry Fitzgerald |
| |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
| Season |
Team |
G |
GS |
Target |
Rec |
Yard |
Avg |
TD |
FPts |
FPts/G |
| 2007 |
ARI |
15 |
14 |
167 |
101 |
1,412 |
14.0 |
10 |
201.2 |
13.4 |
| 2008 |
ARI |
16 |
16 |
154 |
96 |
1,434 |
14.9 |
12 |
215.4 |
13.5 |
| 2009 |
ARI |
16 |
16 |
153 |
97 |
1,092 |
11.3 |
13 |
187.2 |
11.7 |
In examining Fitzgerald’s performance in 2009, it’s clear that his fantasy production was largely based on the number of touchdowns he scored. His average yards per reception suffered because defenses played a lot of cover two against the Cardinals. Opponents feared the team’s passing attack, not its ability to run the ball.
Looking forward to 2010, with Boldin now in Baltimore, defenses will likely commit more to stopping the running back tandem of the emerging Chris Wells and Tim Hightower. However, with Steve Breaston not worthy of as much attention as Boldin, Fitzgerald will likely be double covered on almost every play.
Talented wide receivers are able to beat coverage but it is more difficult for them to get open and they need an accurate passer to get them the ball. With Warner at the controls, Fitzgerald had an accurate passer, but Leinart has not yet proven able to match Warner’s accuracy and is unlikely to develop to that level in 2010.
In his four years in the league, Leinart compiled a completion rate of 57.1%. Last year, in 77 attempts, he completed 66.2% of his passes but his yards per attempt was a lowly 5.6, indicating that he was throwing a high number of short and intermediate passes.
Warner’s career completion percentage was 65.7% and his yards per attempt was 7.8.
Although some fantasy enthusiasts may have taken solace in Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt recently proclaiming that Leinart was the team’s starting quarterback, it’s worth noting that a week prior to this proclamation he had remarked that Leinart would be anointed the starter once he goes to three Pro Bowls and wins the Super Bowl.
More likely than not, Whisenhunt was sending a statement to Leinart, the recently signed Derek Anderson and the team about the anticipated depth chart. Still, the earlier comment by the head coach does give us a lot of confidence in Leinart as the projected starter.
Over the last three years, the Cardinals offense scored 41, 45 and 43 touchdowns. With Leinart at the controls, it’s easy to predict that the Cardinals will score less. With the team now likely to shift to more of a ground based attack, it’s also easy to predict that a higher percentage of their offensive touchdowns will come on the ground.
Fantasy football success is based on drafting for value and the value equation includes a risk component. With Warner at the controls leading a passing based attack, Fitzgerald was a high reward, low risk option.
With Leinart at the controls of a more ground based attack, Fitzgerald will still produce but his upside is less and he is a far riskier option in 2010. For that reason, he’s currently my 11th ranked wide receiver for fantasy purposes, behind receivers with much more established quarterbacks, such as Greg Jennings (ranked 9th) and Marques Colston (10th).
By: Dave Stringer — April 7, 2010 @ 10:08 am
Having jettisoned their top two quarterbacks from last season, Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, in favour of the aging Jake Delhomme and veteran Seneca Wallace, the Cleveland Browns next logical move would seem to be repairing the desperate situation at wide receiver.
Or perhaps not.
With new general manager Mike Holmgren having an offensive background, most observers felt he would focus his attention on that side of the ball in free agency and that has proven to be true.
In addition to addressing the quarterback position, the Browns went the free agency route in acquiring right offensive tackle Tony Pashos and tight end Ben Watson, as well as re-signing guard Billy Yates and tight end Greg Estandia. They also picked up fullback Peyton Hillis from the Broncos as part of the Quinn trade, and he can also fill in at running back.
However, despite having the worst passing offense in the league with a woeful 129.8 yards per game last year, the Browns have not addressed the wide receiver position in free agency. To put this in perspective, the next worst passing offense was the New York Jets with 148.8 yards per game, 19 yards a game better than the Browns. The Browns were really, really bad.
More proof of the anemic passing attack was that the Browns were the only team in the NFL to complete fewer than 50% of their passes. They averaged a league worst 5.1 yards per attempt and had the second lowest number of touchdown passes with 11. The team’s wide receivers caught only five of those touchdown passes.
And yet the current depth chart at wide receiver remains unchanged from the end of last season with second-year players Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie accompanied by former Jet Chansi Stuckey and Josh Cribbs. Combined, they caught 80 passes last year for 1,063 yards which would be considered solid production from a team’s number one receiver, not its top four.
With the remaining free agent wide receivers consisting of aging veterans and journeyman, the Browns will be forced to address the position in the draft, barring a trade. The top wide receiver available is expected to be Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant but his draft stock is sliding due to questions about his character and poor 40-yard time, making it unlikely the Browns will pick him with the seventh selection in the draft.
Fantasy Impact
Massaquoi is the only wide receiver on the roster that has shown the ability to develop into a productive starter. At 6’2” and 207 pounds, he has good size and displayed some big play ability as a rookie with 34 receptions for 624 yards and three touchdowns, averaging an impressive 18.4 yards per catch.
However, he was very inconsistent with a large portion of his production (407 yards and two touchdowns) coming in four games, the only games in which he topped 40 yards receiving. In addition, his average yards per catch as a rookie may be deceiving since he doesn’t possess great deep speed. Nonetheless, he projects as the Browns top wide receiver in 2010 and as a low end fantasy WR4 with limited upside.
Robiskie’s lack of production as a rookie was particularly confusing since he was considered to be the most polished wide receiver coming out of college last year. Despite being the fourth pick in the second round and possessing decent speed, he was active for only 11 games, many of which he barely played, and caught seven passes for 106 yards. He was targeted only 21 times.
Barring major improvement during the offseason together with a solid training camp, he does not currently project as a player worth drafting in all but the deepest of fantasy leagues.
Cribbs has displayed some obvious big play ability but in five years, the most yards he had from scrimmage in a season came last year when he totalled 516. In the previous four years, his combined total was 292 total yards. Although the Browns list him as a wide receiver, there is little doubt that his biggest potential for fantasy purposes lies in his ability as a running back.
With Jerome Harrison having basically a solid half-season out of four years in the league, Hillis a marginal talent and James Davis coming off a wasted rookie season, Cribbs could have surprising production as a runner in Cleveland provided there are no additions to the depth chart prior to opening day.
As for Stuckey, he was reasonably decent for one season as a third wide receiver with the Jets in 2008 as part of an offense that put up solid passing production. Last year, the Jets gave up on him after he started three of four games with minimal impact. He’s a marginal talent at best and isn’t even guaranteed a roster spot in 2010.
The Raiders, Rams and Buccaneers also possess depth charts at wide receiver that are severely lacking but those teams possess some decent veterans and a speed element, neither of which exist in Cleveland at the moment.
Add it all up and it seems clear that the Browns currently possess the worst group of wide receivers in the league.
By: Dave Stringer — March 15, 2010 @ 7:46 am
1. Antonio Gates, SD—Gates bounced back last year after a subpar year in 2008 to lead all tight ends in receiving yards. The Chargers offense figures to dominate and he had six TD in the last six games of 2009.
2. Brent Celek, PHI—Built on his impressive late season performance in 2008 to become the 4th ranked fantasy TE in 2009 with nearly 1,000 yards receiving and eight TD. No reason why he can’t duplicate that in 2010.
3. Vernon Davis, SF—Huge, unforeseen breakout campaign in 2009 that included 13 TD made him the top fantasy TE. Difficult to imagine that happening again but he should top 900 yards again next year.
4. Dallas Clark, IND—Coming off a career year where he benefited from the absence of a solid threat opposite Reggie Wayne early in 2009. With Anthony Gonzalez back from injury and Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie developing, Clark’s opportunities could be reduced in 2010.
5. Jermichael Finley, GB—Had a coming out party in 2009 with 55 receptions for 676 yards and five TD despite playing in only 13 games with nine starts. Finley averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game over the last five games of the season. Young player with major upside who should be the top ranked TE in dynasty leagues.
6. Owen Daniels, HOU—Daniels was on pace for a career year in 2009 before an ACL injury derailed his season. If he is fully recovered by week one, he will be in the top 5 in 2010 but that is unlikely.
7. Tony Gonzalez, ATL—Another solid campaign but he looked slower than in 2008 and was definitely underutilized by the Falcons.
8. Heath Miller, PIT—Coming off a career year, Miller emerged as a solid check down option for the Steelers as well as a great option in the red zone. Expect similar production in 2010.
9. Jason Witten, DAL—Witten ranked 3rd in yards amongst TE last year with 1,030 but was only the 8th ranked fantasy TE due to his low TD total (two in 2009, scoring six over the last two years). The Cowboys have shown a propensity to throw to their big wide receivers in the end zone and there’s little reason why that would change in 2010.
10. Kellen Winslow, TB—Sneaks into the top 10 despite being hindered by quarterback play and the lack of a dominant wide receiver in what figures to be one of the worst offenses in the league in 2010.
11. Zach Miller, OAK—Miller doesn’t get the credit he deserves, mostly because he has never had the chance to play with a decent quarterback. However, his numbers improved once the team benched JaMarcus Russell and Russell will be on a shorter leash in 2010.
12. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN—A solid fantasy TE for the last two years because he is a TD machine (11 last year and seven in 2008). However, he has yet to top 600 yards so if you grab him, you’re banking on the touchdowns and that makes him a bit of a risk.
13. Greg Olsen, CHI—Olsen is talented but no TE in a Mike Martz offense has ever topped 380 yards. As with Shiancoe, if you grab him, you’re banking on touchdowns.
14. John Carlson, SEA—Carlson wasn’t a bust in 2009 but it’s safe to say that his owners expected him to improve on his rookie season in 2008 and that didn’t happen. He was forced to stay in to pass protect more often and given the team’s questionable offensive line, that likely won’t change much in 2010.
15. Chris Cooley, WAS—Suffered an ankle injury which relegated him to seven games last year. He is a talented player and, at 27, should bounce back but the Redskins offense is in a rebuilding mode and Fred Davis played well in his absence.
16. Brandon Pettigrew, DET—Last year’s top ranked rookie TE was rounding nicely into form with 15 receptions for 165 yards and two TD in the three games before he suffered a season-ending knee injury. Might start slowly in 2010 but expect him to come on by mid-season.
17. Kevin Boss, NYG—Boss has increased his receiving yards every year (118 to 384 to 567) which is encouraging, however the team completely forgot about him in the red zone until week eight last year. He had five TD over his final nine games but may be forgotten once again in 2010 due to the emergence of the team’s wide receivers.
18. Todd Heap, BAL—Provided a surprisingly solid season last year but he’s about to turn 30, he’s injury prone and the Ravens will almost certainly pick up a TE in the draft.
19. Dustin Keller, NYJ—Similar to Carlson in that an improvement in his receiving numbers was expected in his second year, but he was held in to pass block more. Keller got a boost when Leon Washington went down but not as much as expected.
20. Jeremy Shockey, NO—Played well when he was healthy in 2009 but still missed two games and played hurt in a number of others.
21. Tony Scheffler, DEN—Forgotten man in Denver last year figures to have a new team in 2010.
22. Marcedes Lewis, JAC—Has improved his yardage totals in each of his four years in the league but has never topped two TD in a season which severely restricts his fantasy usefulness.
23. Anthony Fasano, MIA—Fasano was a decent option in 2008 courtesy of his seven TD but slumped to just two last season. His receiving skills are mediocre at best.
24. Daniel Fells, STL—The Rams didn’t tender Fells but was re-signed after the Patriots expressed interest. Obviously, they’re not sold on him and you shouldn’t be either.
25. Fred Davis, WAS—Played too well last year to be relegated to a strictly backup role but the Redskins offense figures to be mediocre in 2010 so his upside is limited unless Cooley gets hurt again.
26. Chase Coffman, CIN—The Bengals have big hopes for him, but with the addition of Antonio Bryant and strong running by Cedric Benson, there are already a lot of mouths to feed in this offense.
27. Bo Scaife, TEN—Seemed to be a promising player a couple of years ago but now he is what he is—30-40 yards per game and one or two TD on the season. Why bother.
28. David Thomas, NO—Thomas showed surprising receiving ability last year in limited opportunities, which makes you wonder what he might do if Shockey were to suffer a season-ending injury.
29. Brad Cottam, KC—He’s the starter for the Chiefs but there is not much upside here.
30. Dante Rosario, CAR—Another player who has looked the part at times but never put it together for an extended number of games.
31. Jared Cook, TEN—Titans are high on him and he could surprise if he can beat out Scaife and assume the role full-time.
32. Ben Watson, CLE—Watson moves from the Patriots, where he continued to tease fantasy owners with short flashes of excellence, to the Browns. Not overly excited here.
33. James Casey, HOU—Casey showed some ability last year and could get some opportunities if Daniels is slow to recover from injury.
34. Leonard Pope, KC—Pope moved from the Cardinals to the Chiefs last year, and got some chances in K.C. but didn’t do much with them.
By: Dave Stringer — March 12, 2010 @ 1:38 am
1. Andre Johnson, HOU—Followed up his 1,575 yard, eight TD season in 2008 with 1,569 yards and nine TD in 2009. Let’s chalk him up for, say, 1,575 yards and, oh, eight or nine TD. Good enough for our top spot.
2. Randy Moss, NE—With Wes Welker coming back from injury, a lack of a proven threat at the other outside receiver position and no tight end who can catch, Moss’ opportunities figure to increase in 2010.
3. Roddy White, ATL—Not quite as explosive as he was in 2008, White still managed 1,153 yards and 11 TD. If Matt Ryan continues to develop, White figures to produce more.
4. Miles Austin, DAL—Huge breakout season in 2009 vaulted him to the top of the Cowboys depth chart and there’s no reason why he can’t duplicate his performance this year.
5. Brandon Marshall, DEN—Despite the turmoil in Denver last year, he was still the 5th ranked fantasy wide receiver. No matter what team he lands on, he’s in the top 10.
6. DeSean Jackson, PHI—Was the most explosive big play receiver in the league last year and is only getting better.
7. Vincent Jackson, SD—Coming off a solid campaign that was marred by a four game slump between weeks 10-13. Jackson will likely be suspended for one or two games due to his off the field troubles.
8. Calvin Johnson, DET—Definitely one of the largest fantasy busts at wide receiver in 2009 with under 1,000 yards and only five TD. However, Matthew Stafford figures to improve significantly in 2010 and hopefully Johnson can avoid the nagging injuries that hindered his performance last year.
9. Greg Jennings, GB—Another fantasy disappointment who posted solid receiving yards but managed just four TD after scoring 21 during the previous two years.
10. Marques Colston, NO—Dynamite talent who suffers fantasy wise from playing on a team with so many solid offensive skill position players.
11. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI—Talent wise, he is definitely higher. Rankings wise, you have to move him down based on the departures of Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin.
12. Reggie Wayne, IND—Was exceptional for the first nine games of 2009 but trailed off badly during the last seven with 385 yards and two TD, which begs the question—is he wearing down at 31. The return of Anthony Gonzalez figures to have a minor negative impact on his numbers.
13. Sidney Rice, MIN—Breakout campaign in 2009 but difficult to bank on another phenomenal season from Brett Favre plus Percy Harvin’s role figures to expand.
14. Santonio Holmes, PIT—Finally delivered on his promise with a solid season in 2009 but still left something to be desired with only five TD, including a nine game stretch when he failed to find the end zone.
15. Hakeem Nicks, NYG—Simply put, he looks like a younger, faster version of Anquan Boldin. Nicks had 115 fantasy points on only 74 targets, ranking him 5th in that category. Look for the Giants to get him more involved in 2010.
16. Anquan Boldin, BAL—The move to Baltimore figures to have little effect on Boldin. If he’s healthy for 14-16 games, expect a little over 1,000 yards and 8-10 TD.
17. Chad Ochocinco, CIN—Comeback season in 2009 but is a year older and with Antonio Bryant an improvement over Laveraneus Coles opposite him, his targets may go down.
18. Michael Crabtree, SF—Solid rookie season and he figures to top 1,000 yards in 2010 but tight end Vernon Davis gobbles up the touchdowns so it’s hard to move Crabtree higher.
19. Mike Sims-Walker, JAC—Talented player coming off a breakout season but disappeared at times. With more consistency, he could hit the top 10. Here’s at 19 but with upside.
20. Steve Smith, NYG—Came out of nowhere to become the 12th ranked fantasy wide receiver in 2009. Here’s the question—do you believe? He’s at 20 so I’m not entirely sold especially with talented youngsters Nicks and Mario Manningham on board in New York.
21. Percy Harvin, MIN—Nice rookie season from Harvin and he has the talent to be a 1,000 yard receiver for years to come. The quarterback situation in Minnesota will impact where he ultimately lands in the projections and rankings.
22. Steve Smith, CAR—Salvaged his fantasy reputation with some nice games at the end of the season. His production in 2010 hinges on the play of new quarterback Matt Moore.
23. Dwayne Bowe, KC—Worked his way into new head coach Todd Haley’s doghouse by being an out of shape diva and then made things worse by getting suspended for four games. I keep wondering why Michael Clayton pops into my mind when I’m talking about Bowe?
24. Donald Driver, GB—Just keeps on producing but worrying signs on the horizon due to his week 14-17 production of 185 yards and no TD.
25. Jeremy Maclin, PHI—Maclin played well as a rookie with 762 yards and four TD. Natural progression should help him top 900 yards with at least six TD in 2010.
26. Hines Ward, PIT—Even though he had to play through some nagging injuries, he managed his most receiving yards since the 2003 season. He’s still Ben Roethlisberger’s security blanket.
27. Wes Welker, NE—Assuming he returns by the fourth week of the season, Welker still figures to land in the top 30.
28. Mike Wallace, PIT—Was the biggest surprise amongst the rookie receivers with 756 yards and six TD, good enough for 34th overall at the position. Look for him to improve on that in 2010.
29. Kenny Britt, TEN—Topped 700 yards as a rookie but only had three TD despite his 6’3”, 220 pound frame. The Titans are a well coached team so expect his red zone targets to increase in 2010.
30. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ—Solid player who produces but doesn’t get enough targets to be a fantasy difference maker.
31. Steve Breaston, ARI—Moves into the starting line-up with Boldin’s departure but questions about Matt Leinart and Breaston’s lack of TD (only six on 140 career receptions) keep his ranking down.
32. Devin Aromashodu, CHI—Look for him to line up outside and be the main benefactor at wide receiver of the team’s decision to install Mike Martz at offensive co-ordinator. Solid dynasty option, provided he can hold off Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox.
33. Robert Meachem, NO—Has all the tools but needs to be more consistent so the coaches have confidence to make him a bigger part of the game plan. Entering his 4th season, maybe the light will stay on more frequently. Big upside.
34. Malcom Floyd, SD—The Chargers dumped Chris Chambers to get him into the starting line-up. Floyd is a tall, physical receiver who has the ability to go up and get jump balls on deep passes. Decent upside considering he plays on a solid offense that passes plenty.
35. Nate Burleson, DET—Burleson moves to the Lions where he figures to get plenty of single coverage opposite Calvin Johnson.
36. Mario Manningham, NYG—Solid second season with 822 yards and five TD but dropped at least 200 yards and two or three TD worth of production. Solid upside if Steve Smith’s career year was a fluke (which is possible).
37. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA—Last year’s most overhyped wide receiver free agent signing was a bust in Seattle. With an aging O-line and quarterback, and Burleson in Detroit, expect similar production in 2010.
38. Braylon Edwards, NYJ—Maddeningly inconsistent on a team that likes to run. He’s their deep threat who averaged six targets a game with the Jets, too low to be even a WR3.
39. Pierre Garcon, IND—Made some big plays in his second year, finishing with 47 receptions for 765 yards and four TD. However, perhaps it is telling that he only caught 51% of the passes thrown his way, exceptionally low considering Peyton Manning’s 68.8% completion rate in 2009.
40. Lee Evans, BUF—Remarkably the Bills seem content with Trent Edwards at quarterback. Realistically, a rookie wouldn’t be much better so in either scenario, Evans ranks as a WR4 in 2010.
41. Derrick Mason, BAL—Back in Baltimore for another season but now playing second fiddle to Boldin.
42. Earl Bennett, CHI—Solid sophomore season after being a bust as a rookie. May not have the speed that Martz requires out wide and he’s not an option as a slot receiver.
43. Anthony Gonzalez, IND—He’s back in Indy after a wasted 2009 campaign. Caught 71.8% of the passes Manning tossed his way during his first two years in the league. While others are clamouring for Garcon and Collie, get Gonzalez on the cheap.
44. Devery Henderson, NO—He’s fast, he plays on one of the best passing offenses in the league but he doesn’t go over the middle so his fantasy upside is dependent on touchdowns. He had two last year.
45. Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE—Productive as a rookie with 624 yards and three TD but was that because they didn’t have anybody else to throw to? Who’s the QB in 2010 and how much are they throwing it? Hard to see the upside here.
46. Chris Chambers, KC—Did some nice things in K.C. in 2009 but now has his shiny new contract and don’t forget that he basically disappeared for a year and a half in San Diego.
47. Antonio Bryant, CIN—Bryant is a talented receiver. Unfortunately in Cincinnati he’s the second most talented receiver and they don’t throw it a whole lot.
48. Donnie Avery, STL—A burner who is maddeningly inconsistent and injury prone. Plus, the Rams have some major questions marks at quarterback. That being said, he has some upside provided they bring in a veteran like Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick.
49. Chaz Schilens, OAK—He’s Oakland’s best receiver. That’s not saying much and the quarterback situation is a mess so not much upside here.
50. Early Doucet, ARI—Looked like a poor man’s version of Anquan Boldin in the playoffs, when he put up 145 yards receiving and two TD. If he beats out Breaston, he could be WR3 material.
51. Santana Moss, WAS—Another player who is his team’s best receiver and another, “so what?”
52. Kevin Walter, HOU—Solid possession receiver coming off a down year, mostly due to injury, he could benefit if Owen Daniels is slow to recover from a torn ACL.
53. Davone Bess, MIA—Was the Dolphins most productive receiver over the last two years but is a small, shifty player who lacks top end speed, averages 10.1 yards per reception and has three TD in two years. Once again, not much upside.
54. Devin Thomas, WAS—Showed some flashes last year but now has to prove it to a new coach and may be catching balls from a rookie quarterback. That being said, there isn’t much talent at wide receiver in Washington so he could come on.
55. Josh Morgan, SF—Looks the part but seems to lack big play ability. Maybe the light goes on in 2010.
56. Roy Williams, DAL—Seven TD salvaged his fantasy season in 2009 when he had just 596 yards receiving. Caught 44.2% of his targets, a clear indication he and Tony Romo have some chemistry building to do.
57. Eddie Royal, DEN—Huge fantasy disappointment with 345 yards receiving and no TD after a rookie season of 91 receptions for 980 yards and five TD. Head coach Josh McDaniels says he’s going to be more involved in 2010 and if Marshall is traded, maybe it happens. There is some upside here.
58. Mike Thomas, JAC—Flashed some playmaking ability as a rookie but will need to beat out fellow second year player Jarrett Dillard to get into the starting line-up.
59. Jacoby Jones, HOU—Texans head coach Gary Kubiak says he loves Jones’ potential. If that’s the case, why did they sign Kevin Walter to a lucrative long-term contract?
60. Jason Avant, PHI—Has improved in each of his four years in the league. If Jackson or Maclin go down, Avant has the talent to produce.
61. Deion Branch, SEA—Hey, the Seahawks are going to be behind plenty and somebody has to catch some balls.
62. Johnny Knox, CHI—Move him up plenty if he works his way into the starting line-up.
63. Bernard Berrian, MIN—Sidney Rice. Percy Harvin. Meet Minnesota’s starting receivers in 2010.
64. Devin Hester, CHI—Mike Martz says Hester’s going to line up in the slot which will keep him fresh to return kicks. One comment like that and his potential drops like a stone.
65. James Jones, GB—Displayed inconsistent hands, but he’s talented enough to produce if injury strikes Jennings or Driver.
66. Nate Washington, TEN—With Britt needing to start, it makes more sense to have the explosive Washington in the starting line-up ahead of Justin Gage.
67. Brandon Gibson, STL—Showed some potential as a possession receiver and the Rams have a major need in that area.
68. Laurent Robinson, STL—Looked good before getting hurt in the third game of the season.
69. Patrick Crayton, DAL—Not much upside but he has a couple of solid games every year.
70. Malcolm Kelly, WAS—Hasn’t done much in two years and the knock on him is that he doesn’t use his size to his advantage. This is likely his last year to put it together.
By: Dave Stringer — March 11, 2010 @ 8:40 am
It’s never too early to start planning ahead for the 2010 fantasy season. My quarterback rankings came first, and now it is time for the running backs.
These rankings are based on my preliminary—and not yet released—2010 projections, which haven’t been scrubbed for off the field issues and consistency factors, plus some players are still bound to change teams via trade, release or inability to agree on a contract with their current club. The rankings are sure to change many times between now and September.
Still, it is great to be thinking and opining about football, and I’m sure there will be lots of discussion right off the top of most RB rankings this year as there is no clear cut consensus number one selection.
For me, Adrian Peterson of the Vikings gets the nod for top spot, followed by Maurice Jones-Drew ahead of Chris Johnson. Peterson is a more powerful runner. He’s managed to stay healthy during his three seasons in the league, he improved dramatically as a receiver in 2009 and he’s the running back most likely to hit the 16-18 touchdown range. Let the quibbling begin.
I haven’t ranked veteran runners such as LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook because we don’t know where they will be in 2010. Realistically, they are going to be in time shares or backup roles. The same logic applies to rookies so they haven’t been included yet.
Also, with Tomlinson off the roster in San Diego and Darren Sproles not suited for the feature role, these rankings do not include as yet unknown feature back in San Diego next year.
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN—Bit of a disappointment in 2009 but still the best bet to land at the top of the RB rankings in 2010.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC—Big numbers last year despite a lack of talent around him.
3. Chris Johnson, TEN—Most will have him higher but he’s here due to concerns about the dual effects of his overuse in 2009 and his stature.
4. Ray Rice, BAL—No reason why he can’t duplicate his breakout performance from last year.
5. Frank Gore, SF—There’s a lot of young skill position talent in San Francisco. If Alex Smith is decent at quarterback and the O-line is replenished, Gore will be dynamite.
6. Steven Jackson, STL—The Rams O can’t be any worse and SJax was huge last year despite his weak supporting cast and a back injury that slowed him down.
7. Michael Turner, ATL—Injuries are the only thing that are going to slow down
Turner but his lack of receiving ability keeps him out of the top 5.
8. DeAngelo Williams, CAR—Injuries held him back in 2009, otherwise he would have been in the top 10 for the second year in a row.
9. Ryan Grant, GB—Grant isn’t flashy but he’s the undisputed lead back on one of the league’s most explosive offenses.
10. Knowshon Moreno, DEN—Solid but not spectacular as a rookie. Bet on an increased workload propelling him near the top 10 in 2010.
11. Chris Wells, ARI—Kurt Warner is gone, so the Cardinals are going to run more next year and Wells is clearly a more talented back than Tim Hightower. Sometimes it’s that simple.
12. Jonathan Stewart, CAR—There’s no reason why the Panthers won’t have two 1,000 yard backs again in 2010.
13. Cedric Benson, CIN—Undisputed lead back in an offense based heavily on the run. His hard running style makes him susceptible to injury or else he would be in the top 10.
14. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT—Put up solid numbers after taking over for Willie Parker last year but never looked all that impressive.
15. Fred Jackson, BUF—Bills figure to move Jackson ahead of Marshawn Lynch. Finished 17th in the rankings last year so there’s no reason to move him down.
16. Pierre Thomas, NO—Lead back on an offense returning all of its key pieces. Committee backfield keeps him around the 18h position he finished in last year but he has huge upside.
17. Matt Forte, CHI—He’s not overly talented but he has receiving ability, a prerequisite for a back in a Mike Martz offense. Injuries and a poor O-line held him back in 2009. He was just outside my top 10 until the Chester Taylor signing.
18. Shonn Greene, NYJ—Came on strong at the end of last season and in the playoffs. Greene represents major upside with the release of Thomas Jones.
19. Kevin Smith, DET—Bit of a sophomore slump coupled with a knee injury last year that could hold him back early in 2010. Lions have young, talented playmakers on offense.
20. Ricky Williams, MIA—The Dolphins run it a lot, Williams looked fantastic last year and Ronnie Brown is coming off an injury (again). What’s not to like.
21. Joseph Addai, IND—Snuck into the top 10 last year, courtesy of his 13 TD and rookie Donald Brown missing five games. Look for Addai’s role to decrease in 2010.
22. Jamaal Charles, KC—He was a monster for eight games last year, partly because of his receiving ability. Was in the top 10 until the team signed Thomas Jones who will eat into the goal line work and likely get 10-12 carries a game.
23. Ronnie Brown, MIA—He’s missed an average of four games a year over his five-year career and has only one 1,000 yard season. Just giving you the facts.
24. LeSean McCoy, PHI—Brian Westbrook is gone and McCoy takes over full time. McCoy could land higher but Leonard Weaver figures to get the goal line work.
25. Jerome Harrison, CLE—Most will rank him higher but the bottom line is that he did nothing for three years and 89 of his 150 fantasy points came in three games against the Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars.
26. Brandon Jacobs, NYG—Huge letdown in 2009 courtesy of a knee injury that wasn’t disclosed until after the season. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s always out with injuries or having to play through them.
27. Cadillac Williams, TB—Bucs O can’t be as bad as it was last year and young O-line should improve, especially if guard Aaron Sears returns.
28. Felix Jones, DAL—Bank on a bigger role for Jones in 2010 but unless he gets more goal line work, it’s difficult to move him higher.
29. Marion Barber, DAL—Expect fewer yards from Barber, but a similar TD total in 2010.
30. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG—Put up solid numbers with an increased workload in 2009. Key question is whether that workload was the result of Jacobs’ injury or Bradshaw’s effectiveness?
31. Darren Sproles, SD—Coming off a career year with 840 total yards and seven TD. In my opinion, this is pretty much his upside, save for a few more yards.
32. Justin Forsett, SEA—He’s the number one guy in Seattle until the draft. Check back after that.
33. Michael Bush, OAK—He’s been Oakland’s healthiest and most effective back running the football over the past two seasons. Presumably the Raiders will eventually figure that out.
34. Reggie Bush, NO—It looks like the Saints want him back. On the plus side, he equalled a career high in TD last year. On the down side, his touches have declined three straight years, hitting 117 last year.
35. Clinton Portis, WAS—New head coach Mike Shanahan’s teams have a history of running the ball successfully and although Portis wasn’t great last year before being injured, he wasn’t as bad as advertised.
36. Thomas Jones, KC—Coming off two top 10 fantasy seasons, he’s going to eat into Charles’ workload in K.C.
37. Arian Foster, HOU—Let’s assume Foster gets the running downs and goal line carries in Houston next year. The draft may dictate otherwise.
38. Steve Slaton, HOU—He ran it horribly last year but did you know he was the 31st ranked RB playing in only 11 games? Hard to move him lower than this.
39. Donald Brown, IND—Look for an increased role for Brown in his 2nd year. He’s projected here but has major upside.
40. Darren McFadden, OAK—Basically, the Raiders offense is in shambles and in two years, McFadden has done nothing to prove that he’s a feature back.
41. Tim Hightower, ARI—Highly productive first two years in the league but is likely relegated to a backup and pass catching role in 2010. Wells seems too powerful to not get the goal line work.
42. Chester Taylor, CHI—He’s here based on the assumption he backs up Forte but he moves up significantly if he wins the job and is just outside the top 30 if he gets the goal line work.
43. Willis McGahee, BAL—Somewhat surprisingly, the Ravens wanted him back this year. Note that 113 of his 146 fantasy points came in five games.
44. Laurence Maroney, NE—Surprisingly solid season in 2009 but fell into the doghouse at the end of the year. He might not be back in New England.
45. Julius Jones, SEA—What is there to say? He’s never fulfilled the promise he showed as a rookie six long years ago.
46. Sammy Morris, NE—The Pats like him so he’ll be back and score a few fantasy points, almost certainly sitting on someone’s bench. Why bother?
47. Leonard Weaver, PHI—With Westbrook gone, Weaver is likely in line to get the goal line work and some carries as McCoy’s backup.
48. Mike Bell, NO—Great change of pace back for the Saints. Look for another 600 yard, 5-6 TD season if they bring him back.
49. Correll Buckhalter, DEN—Moreno’s in line for more work but Buckhalter has proven to be effective in a backup role.
50. Marshawn Lynch, BUF—No surprise if he’s elsewhere in 2010. Major shocker if he opens the season as Buffalo’s starter.
51. Derrick Ward, TB—Bust in 2009 will be relegated to backup role in Tampa next year.
52. Kevin Faulk, NE—See Sammy Morris above.
53. Leon Washington, NYJ—His injury was a bad one, so expect his upside and touches to be limited for now.
54. Bernard Scott, CIN—Showed some promise as a rookie but workhorse Benson will restrict Scott’s carries unless injuries strike.
55. Jason Snelling, ATL—Looked good last year with Turner and Jerious Norwood suffering injuries but likely earns very limited touches if both are healthy in 2010.
56. Jerious Norwood, ATL—With Snelling’s emergence, he could be attractive trade bait and end up elsewhere next year.
57. Maurice Morris, DET—If Kevin Smith isn’t ready to open the season, Morris may be a useful flex play.
58. Brandon Jackson, GB—Injury prone backup is an effective receiver but has no chance to usurp Grant given his poor running ability.
59. Mewelde Moore, PIT—Surprisingly productive when given an opportunity.
By: Dave Stringer — March 9, 2010 @ 9:48 am
There were plenty of solid fantasy quarterback performances in 2009, and 2010 figures to produce another bountiful crop of studs at the position.
Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers proved his monster 2008 was no fluke, moving from fantasy’s 2nd ranked quarterback into the top spot.
Meanwhile, Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub showed what he was capable of when healthy for 16 games and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger vaulted into the top 10 as the Steelers offense moved further away from being a running team.
Several veterans enjoyed stellar seasons, including Peyton Manning recording his best fantasy stats since 2006, Drew Brees continuing his amazing run in New Orleans, Brett Favre having a renaissance season for the Minnesota Vikings and Tom Brady successfully returning from a knee injury in 2009.
Looking ahead to 2010, there are storm clouds on the horizon for a couple of veteran quarterbacks, some major question marks at the position for a number of teams along with the usual question marks surrounding young players who have been vaulted into the top spot on the depth chart, courtesy of retirements and poor play from last year’s starters.
1. Aaron Rodgers, GB—Fantasy football’s top ranked QB from 2009 returns to the top spot for 2010. What propels him to the top of the projections is his rushing ability (304 yards and five TD last year).
2. Matt Schaub, HOU—Schaub led the NFL in passing yards last year and figures to do so again in 2010 with Kevin Walter re-signed and assuming Owen Daniels returns to health.
3. Peyton Manning, IND—Nice bounceback season for Manning in 2009 after posting the 2nd worst (yet still respectable) fantasy numbers of his career a year earlier. Reggie Wayne is a year older but Anthony Gonzalez returns to add even more firepower at wide receiver.
4. Drew Brees, NO—The Super Bowl champions figure to be strong again in 2010 and it looks like all of the skill position weapons will return.
5. Donovan McNabb, PHI—We’re assuming McNabb is back in Philly and gets to enjoy the benefit of perhaps the best young group of offensive skill position players in the league.
6. Philip Rivers, SD—He’s at six but could move higher if the team fails to find a running back in the draft and Malcom Floyd emerges as a big play threat opposite Vincent Jackson.
7. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT—A career year for Big Ben in 2009 and the Steelers have clearly morphed into a passing team. Hines Ward might be a year older but Santonio Holmes is coming off a career year and Mike Wallace offers tantalizing speed as the team’s 3rd wideout.
8. Jay Cutler, CHI—The team’s receivers are suspect but the Mike Martz factor propels Cutler into the top 10. Martz has turned every QB he has worked with into a fantasy stud and Cutler arguably has more natural ability than any of Martz’ previous pupils (Kurt Warner, Trent Green, Marc Bulger, Jon Kitna and J.T. O’Sullivan).
9. Tony Romo, DAL—Coming off a top 5 fantasy season, it’s easy to argue that Romo should be higher but expect the Cowboys to revert to a more ground based attack in 2010.
10. Eli Manning, NYG—Manning creeps into the top 10 and has upside potential based on the team’s three potent wideouts (Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham) and durability concerns at the running back position.
11. Tom Brady, NE—Here’s the first shocker with Brady outside of the top 10. There are red flags everywhere in New England—Randy Moss is whining about this being his last year with the team, Wes Welker is coming off a major knee injury that occurred late in the 2009 season, and tight end Ben Watson doesn’t figure to be back. Buyer beware.
12. Brett Favre, MIN—Coming off a monster season, we’ll lean to Favre returning in 2010, but assuming that prediction is correct it’s still difficult to forecast that he will duplicate his best fantasy performance since 2001.
13. Joe Flacco, BAL—He’s likely to be ranked higher by most due to the addition of Anquan Boldin but the Ravens are a run first team plus Todd Heap is a year older and they haven’t groomed anybody to take his place in the offense.
14. Jason Campbell, WAS—For all the criticism Campbell gets, he has increased his yards and TD passes every year he has been in the league. If new head coach Mike Shanahan can get the offensive line straightened out, Campbell should improve again in 2010.
15. Matt Ryan, ATL—Ryan’s a talented player but the Falcons lean on the run and emphasize avoiding turnovers in the passing game.
16. David Garrard, JAC – In 2008, he passed for 3,620 yards and 15 TD while rushing for 322 yards and two TD. In 2009, it was 3,597 yards passing and 15 TD to go along with 323 yards rushing and three TD. At least he’s consistent.
17. Matthew Stafford, DET—There are some nice young parts in Detroit but running back Kevin Smith might not be ready to start the reason and tight end Brandon Pettigrew is also coming off injury. On the plus side, Nate Burleson adds a nice threat opposite Calvin Johnson.
18. Alex Smith, SF—Smith is at 15 but with some major upside if he can stay healthy and utilize the talented young skill position players that surround him in San Francisco.
19. Vince Young, TEN—Had a nice run of 10 games to end the season and has the makings of a solid, if unspectacular, group of wideouts in Kenny Britt, Justin Gage and Nate Washington, provided they can stay healthy.
20. Carson Palmer, CIN—At one time, Palmer seemed destined to be a top five fantasy quarterback for years to come. Those days are over and the team hasn’t adequately replaced T.J. Houshmandzadeh and doesn’t seem to have anybody to take over for Chad Ochocinco when he slows down.
21. Kyle Orton, DEN—Orton put up decent numbers in his first year in Denver but he’s prone to the checkdown and his numbers will suffer if Brandon Marshall leaves town as expected.
22. Matt Cassel, KC—Cassel can’t possibly be any worse than he was last year. Or can he?
23. Josh Freeman, TB—Makes some plays in the running game which help pad his fantasy stats but the team’s crop of wide receivers are not awe inspiring by any stretch.
24. Matt Leinart, ARI—Kurt Warner would be at least 14 spots higher if he were returning. Leinart looked shaky last year and his upside will cause him to get drafted much higher than 24th, although the upside did take a hit with the trade of Boldin.
25. Chad Henne, MIA—Played well as a starter in 2009 but the team’s wide receivers and tight ends offer no proven playmakers and not much upside.
26. Mark Sanchez, NYJ—Love the physical and mental aspects of his game and having Braylon Edwards for a full season will help some but the bottom line is that this is a run early, run often offense.
27. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA—He’s old, he’s injury prone, and his best receiver Nate Burleson left town and the OL has major question marks. There’s almost no upside to taking Hasselbeck.
28. Brady Quinn, CLE—No guarantee at this point that Quinn is the Browns starter in 2010 since he didn’t do much to distinguish himself in 2009.
29. Matt Moore, CAR—Jake Delhomme’s days in Carolina are over. Unfortunately for Moore, Steve Smith is slowing down, the starting spot opposite him is a black hole and no receiving tight end has emerged.
30. Marc Bulger, STL—There is almost no chance he returns as the Rams starter but that’s where he sits on the depth chart at the moment.
31. Trent Edwards, BUF—Amazingly, the signals indicate that the Bills are planning on going with the checkdown king again in 2010. Remarkable.
32. Bruce Gradkowski, OAK—Hey, I’d have him higher but the Raiders won’t bench JaMarcus Russell until midseason.
33. JaMarcus Russell, OAK—See above.
34. Seneca Wallace, CLE—Former Seahawk head coach Mike Holmgren is now in charge of the Cleveland Browns, and he just traded for backup QB Seneca Wallace from the ‘Hawks. Incumbents Quinn and Derek Anderson (who will more than likely be released) should consider Wallace a legitimate threat to take the starting job.
35. A.J. Feeley, STL—If Bulger returns, Feeley will be in there at some point.
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