Forecast « FFT's Blog O' Fantasy Football

Running Back Rankings – Version 2

By: Dave Stringer — July 10, 2009 @ 1:29 pm

Filed under: Forecast

Prior to the NFL’s rookie draft in April, I provided my running back rankings. The draft provided a number of surprises that have made a profound impact on the rankings. Teams have also made other moves that either directly or indirectly impact the performance of their team’s running backs, not to mention the plethora of news (whether or not much of it is to be believed) that could impact this year’s fantasy football running back rankings.

At the rookie draft, the Colts shocked the league by using their first round pick on running back Donald Brown. The Jets made a stunning move up to the 5th pick in the draft to select QB Mark Sanchez. Despite having signed free agent running backs Lamont Jordan, Correll Buckhalter and J.J. Arrington (since released due to injury), the Broncos used the 12th pick on RB Knowshon Moreno.

The net effect of the draft was that some teams clearly moved to secure the running back position in the future but likely decreased the production of their running backs for 2009. Joseph Addai of the Colts and Brian Westbrook of the Eagles were definitely the best examples of this and to a lesser extent so was Tim Hightower of the Cardinals, although Arizona was expected to take a running back early in the draft due to his lackluster performance as a starter.

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN – No change at the top where the Vikings trade for Sage Rosenfels solidified the quarterback position regardless of whether Brett Favre joins the team as is expected. Over 2,000 total yards shouldn’t be a surprise with an outside shot at that amount in rushing yards.

2. Michael Turner, ATL – He’s good, he’s fast and he wasn’t used much early in his career so his 2008 workload doesn’t figure to impact him in 2009. Nonetheless, with Tony Gonzalez now at tight end and the team expected to increase Jerious Norwood’s workload, expect a reduced number of touches.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC – They waited until the 7th round before selecting a running back (Rashad Jennings) so it’s pretty clear that Jones-Drew will get a heavy workload. With a poor receiving corps, he will get plenty of action in the passing game and figures to post big numbers provided he can stay healthy.

4. Matt Forte, CHI – He gets huge touches and, while not overly talented, he puts up plenty of yards. With Jay Cutler now at quarterback, Forte will get fewer rushing attempts but the hope is that will be offset by a higher yards per carry average and a few more touchdowns.

5. DeAngelo Williams, CAR – The Panthers will run heavily and there is no reason to think the offensive line won’t continue to open up holes. Backup Jonathan Stewart will likely eat some touches but Williams production in 2008 ensures he remains the team’s starter.

6. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD – With a solid cast of skill players on offense and tight end Antonio Gates presumably healthy for a full season, the Chargers will put up plenty of points. Sproles isn’t a threat to take away major rushing touches and the fantasy world has discounted Tomlinson too much despite a very respectable season in 2008 (1,537 total yards and 12 TD’s.

7. Marion Barber, DAL – Would have been in the top 5 without the injuries and the team will rely more heavily on the run with Terrell Owens gone. Even in a time share with Felix Jones, Barber will put up big numbers if he remains healthy.

8. Clinton Portis, WAS – As with Jones-Drew, no effort was made to upgrade in the draft so Portis figures to get plenty of opportunities, and history indicates that he will make the most of them. Only 27, Portis is a player the fantasy world has begun to doubt too early. Expect him to provide great value. Portis was the top fantasy RB in 2008 before injuries struck.

9. Frank Gore, SF – Mike Singletary says they’re going to run and most expect it will happen. The young offensive line should improve and was solidified with the additions of Barry Sims and Marvel Smith. The 9ers picked up Glen Coffee in the 3rd round but Gore should top 1,600 total yards. Touchdowns will determine whether he turns into a true fantasy stud.

10. Brian Westbrook, PHI – It’s worth repeating – still solid but 71% of his production came in just five games which is cause for concern. The Eagles picked up LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round but the fact remains that Westbrook is the team’s go-to guy on offense and continually wracks up a huge percentage of their total yards.

11. Steve Slaton, HOU – The Texans keep saying they want to reduce his workload but the backups are the injury prone Chris Brown and Ryan Moats and the position wasn’t addressed in the draft.

12. Brandon Jacobs, NYG – Likely a top five running back if he could stay healthy and there was a true number one wide receiver. Nonetheless, touches should increase with Derrick Ward’s departure and the offensive line is still solid.

13. Ronnie Brown, MIA – Solid production in 2008 with less than 250 touches. It says here there will be less of a committee approach in 2009. If so, take note of his 991 total yards and five touchdowns in 2007 before being lost for the season in week 7. Plus, he’s in a contract year.

14. Steven Jackson, STL – The second most talented back in the league but he’s injury prone, the offensive line is being rebuilt and the Rams might have the worst group of wide receivers in the league.

15. Chris Johnson, TEN – He’s not half as good as he thinks he is and talks twice as much as he should but I’m trying not to let that cloud my judgment. Proved that size wasn’t an issue but unlikely to see more than the 294 touches he had last year.

16. Ryan Grant, GB – Injuries held him back in 2008 but still managed to top 1,200 yards rushing but was hurt by a low TD total. A few more scores could vault him into the top ten but, for the first time in years, the Packers have some question marks on the offensive line.

17. Kevin Smith, DET – 670 yards rushing and four TD over the last eight games, despite having to face the Jags, Panthers and Vikings. Underrated.

18. Pierre Thomas, NO – Apparently he’s put on some weight and muscle to improve his short yardage performance which was horrible in 2008. Playing in a great offense, Thomas figures to benefit but the Saints’ pass first mentality relegates him to RB2 status.

19. Joseph Addai, IND – Before the draft, a bounce back season and plenty of TD playing for one the league’s best offences seemed reasonable. With Brown now breathing down his neck and Addai’s inability to be a true workhorse back after three years in the league, a timeshare is the only reasonable conclusion. Huge upside but clearly a boom-bust pick.

20. Derrick Ward, TB – New regime in Tampa will hand the reins to their guy with Earnest Graham in reserve. Might not see the short yardage work but should produce running behind young, powerful Bucs offensive line.

21. Darren McFadden, OAK – He will be the starter with Michael Bush in a short yardage role. Lack of TD will hurt him.

22. Reggie Bush, NO – Average PPG last three years – 11, 11, 12 – which squarely puts him in RB2 territory. Unfortunately, he’s missed ten games in two years.

23. Jonathan Stewart, CAR – Plan is to split carries but he will bust out if Williams goes down and gets to assume the starter’s role.

24. Marshawn Lynch, BUF – Solid player who suffers from having to face the Pats, Dolphins and Jets six times each season plus he’s going to miss three games

25. Thomas Jones, NYJ – Huge season in 2008 as opposition defences respected team’s passing attack. However, rookie quarterback, loss of Laveranues Coles and the selection of Shonn Greene in the 3rd round cloud the picture. Jones wants more money but the Jets have refused, meaning they might be ready to reduce his role and plan for Greene and Leon Washington in 2010.

26. Willie Parker, PIT – Parker is productive when healthy and not facing top defenses. The big concern is there are signs his breakaway speed might be gone.

27. Larry Johnson, KC – Johnson is still talented but his career is at a crossroads, and he may need a change of scenery to rekindle his motivation.

28. LenDale White, TEN – Gets a lot of slack but has averaged 10 PPG two years in a row and gets the short yardage work.

29. Jamal Lewis, CLE – It is a bit of a surprise they haven’t tried harder to replace him. Touchdowns will be hard to come by from an offense that failed to score in its last five games in 2008.

30. Julius Jones, SEA – Greg Knapp brings his massive run production to Seattle but lack of TD will hold him back.

31. Fred Jackson, BUF – Averaged 11 touches in 2008 and will get at least three starts with Lynch suspended. Maybe there’s even a remote chance he takes over and never looks back.

32. Chris Wells, ARI – Cardinals 1st round pick could make some noise playing in one of the league’s top offenses provided he wins the starting job and/or gets the goal line work. Wells doesn’t figure to contribute as a receiver.

33. Earnest Graham, TB – Graham’s 2008 season was not as effective as 2007. This rank assumes he will get the goal line touches in Tampa. If not, drop him out of the flex starter range.

34. Cedric Benson, CIN – Not much competition from the draft (Cedric Scott in the 6th round) and he was the team’s only productive back last year. There are plenty of naysayers out there but it’s all about opportunity so he figures to be decent in 2009.

35. Knowshon Moreno, DEN – Moreno is a talented back who could have a solid year but is likely to be in a time share for at least the early part of the season.

36. Ray Rice, BAL – He’s got a real shot to be the team’s starter but won’t get goal line work or the chew up the clock work so his upside is limited.

37. Leon Washington, NYJ – Look for the Jets to get him more involved in 2009.

38. Darren Sproles, SD – Sproles is too small to be a starter, and good luck predicting when he’ll go off.

39. Felix Jones, DAL – Absolutely dynamic when healthy last season and the Cowboys are talking about getting him more involved, including having Marion Barber and Jones in the backfield at the same time.

40. Donald Brown, IND – Reports out of Indy are solid but let’s see how he handles the blitz pick up with the pads on. He won’t play until he can protect the franchise (Peyton Manning).

41. Fred Taylor, NE – Unless the light goes on for Maroney, he’s easily their most talented back. Taylor averaged 5.0 yards per carry in 2006 and 5.4 in 2007 before dropping to 3.9 last year due to Jaguars struggles along the offensive line.

42. Jerious Norwood, ATL – He looks great. Every year we hear about more touches but it never happens.

43. Tim Hightower, ARI – This is a difficult to forecast. Hightower likely won’t start because of his failure in that role last year, but could get goal line looks and will definitely be involved in the passing game. Basically, if he doesn’t get the goal line work, his value is extremely limited.

44. Ricky Williams, MIA – Still has the ability but it says here that Ronnie Brown takes on a more prominent role this year.

45. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT – Boom or bust. Hopefully in 2009, he doesn’t take on Ray Lewis.

46. Le’Ron McClain, BAL – Initially it appeared he would get increased touches in 2009 but the move to fullback, insertion of Ray Rice as the starter and selection of Cedric Peerman figure to reduce his role. Nonetheless, he should get the goal line work.

47. Michael Bush, OAK – His week 17, 177 yard and two TD effort against the Bucs wasn’t a fluke. He produces when given a chance.

48. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG – Bradshaw runs as good or better than Ward but he’s not as good a receiver. The team is high on Danny Ware and rookie 4th round pick Andre Brown, and there is a sneaky suspicion that team doesn’t trust Bradshaw, who is entering the final year of his contract.

49. Glen Coffee, SF – 49ers rookie will get a chance to unseat Michael Robinson as Gore’s backup.

50. Chester Taylor, MIN – Touches decreased from 186 in 2007 to 146 in 2008. Expect another drop in 2009.

51. Sammy Morris, NE – He’ll have a couple of decent games before he gets hurt.

52. Brandon Jackson, GB – Proved in 2008 that he has some ability but is no challenge to Grant as the starter.

53. LeSean McCoy, PHI – It is difficult to tell what his role will be because he’s a very similar back to Westbrook. Presumably he will only play when Westbrook is gassed or injured.

54. Jamaal Charles, KC – A talented, fast back who will be the first option if Johnson is traded, benched, suspended, released, etc. Charles is a decent sleeper candidate.

55. Willis McGahee, BAL – He’s pretty much done in Baltimore unless injuries strike or Ray Rice falters. Let somebody else make this mistake.

56. Maurice Morris, DET – He is what he is. Now he’s the backup in Detroit.

57. Kevin Faulk, NE – Best of luck figuring out when he will have a big game.

58. LaMont Jordan, OAK – Maybe he gets the goal line work, maybe he sits on game day.

59. Mewelde Moore, PIT – Looked better than Willie Parker for much of last year but now he is 3rd on the depth chart.

60. T.J. Duckett, SEA – He’ll get some touchdowns but not much else.

61. Correll Buckhalter, DEN – With Moreno on board, he’s no more than a third down and change of pace back.

62. Greg Jones, JAC – Currently the top backup in Jacksonville. Jones might steal a couple of TD from Jones-Drew.

63. Laurence Maroney, NE – Looks like Tarzan, can play like Tarzan but more brittle than melba toast.

64. Jerome Harrison, CLE – Likely Cleveland’s backup unless 6th round pick James Davis beats him out. Lewis is getting old but there are no indications the Browns are looking to reduce his role.

65. Kolby Smith, KC – Smith could produce if Larry Johnson is traded.

66. Rashad Jennings, JAC – Slid in the draft until the 7th round but reports out of Jacksonville have been positive. Might be 3rd string but is more likely than Greg Jones to assume the lead role if Jones-Drew goes down.

67. Shonn Greene, NYJ – Don’t believe the hype that he’s a threat to steal numerous carries from Jones. More likely, they play him selectively with the best case scenario being him taking the goal line work away from Jones.

Comments (2)

Favre’s Fantasy Impact With The Vikings

By: Dave Stringer — June 17, 2009 @ 11:00 am

Filed under: Forecast

After Brett Favre’s appearance on Joe Buck Live, there can be little doubt of his intentions regarding the 2009 season. During the course of his appearance on the show, Favre told Buck the following:

he plans on playing in 2009 provided his arm is healthy,
the Vikings are the only team he has had discussions with,
he has received advice from Vikings trainers on how to rehabilitate his arm,
he chose not to sign with the Vikings earlier and attend their organized team activities, and
the team is a perfect fit for him.

Based on that, it’s fair to conclude that the only thing that would prevent Favre from suiting up with the Vikings in 2009 would be if his bicep does not recover from his recent surgery.

Fantasy Football Impact

There are always two issues with acquiring a player for your fantasy league – production and value. Favre has generally been a solid fantasy performer and that was the case in 2008 with one important caveat. His 2008 production can be broken down into two categories – pre- and post-bicep injury.

Over the first 11 games of the season, Favre was averaging 15.2 points per game. His points per game were reduced dramatically over the season’s final five games of which only one was against a solid defense (Miami), going down to 9.8. In New York, Favre was surrounded by a solid offensive line, career seasons from the team’s two running backs (Thomas Jones and Leon Washington), two solid wide receivers in Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery and a solid rookie tight end in Dustin Keller.

With the Vikings, Favre would benefit from a solid offensive line, albeit one in transition at the centre and right tackle positions. The team also has fantasy football’s number one performer in Adrian Peterson and his solid backup, Chester Taylor. Bernard Berrian is a solid deep threat and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe is coming off a career season. In addition, Bobby Wade is a solid slot receiver plus Sidney Rice and rookie 1st round pick Percy Harvin have intriguing potential.

In summary, the Vikings are quite similar to the Jets on offense with a better pair of running backs and a group of wide receivers without the history of production of Coles and Cotchery but with decent upside.

That being said, the biggest issue with Favre is that he is always drafted before he should be or his auction cost is more than it should be. With one more year on his resume and no solid number two receiver, he ranks as a low end backup fantasy quarterback who has little chance of putting up top ten fantasy stats.

Comments (0)

Cutler’s Fantasy Value Plunges

By: Dave Stringer — April 3, 2009 @ 7:57 am

Filed under: Forecast

The NFL saw its first blockbuster trade in years yesterday when the Broncos dealt quarterback Jay Cutler and a 2009 5th round pick to the Bears for Kyle Orton, 1st round picks in 2009 and 2010 and a 3rd round pick in 2009. The Bears were forced to deal significant assets in order to acquire Cutler due to the demand for his services from teams such as the Jets, Bucs and possibly the Redskins.

Chicago obtains a player who becomes their best quarterback since Erik Kramer in the mid-1990’s and most recognized name at the position since Jim McMahon nearly 25 years ago. His presence immediately ignites a Bears offense that struggled at times in 2008 but still managed to average over 23 points per game. Cutler is a talented quarterback already ranking amongst the league’s best players at the position. However the Bears clearly overpaid to acquire his services. It says here that Bears general manager Jerry Angelo paid the price of a Hall of Famer but only got a potential Hall of Famer in return.

It’s worth noting that the Broncos actually scored fewer points than the Bears in 2008.

The Broncos offense clearly suffers in the short term as a result of this trade but the team likely wins in the long term provided they can turn their draft pick bounty into solid players on the defensive side and perhaps a new franchise quarterback. Embattled rookie head coach Jay McDaniels escapes the wrath of the Broncos faithful only because Angelo’s previous ineptness at acquiring a solid quarterback in many ways forced his hand.

Not to be lost in the days news was the Bears acquisition of former Rams Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Pace. Only a week ago the Bears were in a mess at the tackle position but Pace’s signing and that of Kevin Shaffer solidifies the team’s depth at the position. Pace will remain on the left side while Shaffer will battle with 2008 1st round pick Chris Williams to start at right tackle.

Fantasy Football Impact

Chicago Bears

The biggest winners in this trade from a fantasy perspective are Bears wide receiver Devin Hester and tight end Greg Olsen. Hester is clearly the team’s most talented receiver and is capable of making the big plays that Cutler’s strong throwing arm provides. Olsen also vaults up the rankings at tight end with an outside chance of landing in the top five. Olsen averaged 10 yards per reception last year while Broncos tight end Tony Scheffler averaged over 16 yards per reception.

Whoever ends up winning the battle to start opposite Hester also comes out on top in this deal. The list of candidates includes Earl Bennett and Rashied Davis. Keep in mind that Bennett played with Cutler at Vanderbilt so he may have a head start on winning this battle due to his familiarity with Cutler.

With the team now lacking draft picks, any other wide receiver acquisitions will come through free agency. Bears coach Lovie Smith has a history with former Rams wideout Torry Holt and he would clearly provide a major upgrade at the position.

Cutler’s the big loser in this deal and falls out of the top five in the quarterback rankings, perhaps all the way down to the 10th spot. His weapons are greatly diminished and he moves to an offense that relies far more on the run and short passing game than Denver likely will under McDaniels.

Running back Matt Forte likely benefits due to increased touchdown opportunities and his rushing yardage outlook isn’t affected due to the counterbalancing effects of Cutler and Pace. Overall, his ranking remains in the top 10 but he moves closer to the top five.

Denver Broncos

If Cutler’s the big loser then it stands to reason that Kyle Orton is the big fantasy winner albeit with a rather large caveat. Orton picks up outstanding weapons in wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal as well as tight end Tony Scheffler, provided he isn’t traded as has been rumored. Orton ranked as a decent fantasy backup in 2008 but moves into low end starter territory with his move to Denver. Here’s the caveat – how long is he the starter? If the team takes a quarterback in the 1st round, Orton might find himself on the bench midway through 2009.

Marshall is the Broncos biggest fantasy loser with this trade given that a large portion of his production came from Cutler’s long passes and risky throws to him in traffic. Simply put, Orton will make far fewer of those throws than Cutler would have. Royal and Scheffler don’t likely see much of a drop in value given that Orton will frequently check down and both players figure to be featured in the short passing game.

The team’s running backs likely suffer but realistically none of them were going to be relied on from a fantasy perspective, at least until one of them emerged during the season, if that even occurs at all.

Comments (1)

Running Back Rankings

By: Dave Stringer — March 25, 2009 @ 12:38 pm

Filed under: Forecast

Last year was certainly an odd year for running backs in fantasy football. The theme was breakout players and struggling superstars with a number of major surprises amongst the top ten fantasy performers.

Leading the way was DeAngelo Williams of the Panthers, a player who had failed to beat out journeyman DeShaun Foster two years in a row and who hadn’t topped 750 yards rushing. No surprise then that he went off for 1,639 total yards and 20 touchdowns. Michael Turner of the Falcons certainly looked talented as LaDainian Tomlinson’s backup in San Diego but few would have predicted that he could become fantasy football’s second rated running back.

Rookies also surprised with Matt Forte of the Bears and Steve Slaton of the Texans cracking the top ten and Chris Johnson of the Titans just missing at number eleven, despite not playing in week 17. Jets veteran Thomas Jones also enjoyed a career season at age 30 with over 1,500 total yards and 15 touchdowns.

The surprises on the downside included the Cowboys’ Marion Barber, Joseph Addai of the Colts, Steven Jackson of the Rams, Frank Gore of the 49ers and the Chiefs’ Larry Johnson. Injuries explained a major part of the underperformance in each case. Each of these players would have cost an early pick or major auction dollars but handcuffs wouldn’t have helped much except in Dallas where Tashard Choice, the second handcuff behind first handcuff Felix Jones, performed well.

Adrian Peterson – Trade for Sage Rosenfels should make Peterson’s life easier and he figures to top 2,000 total yards in 2009.
Michael Turner – 2008 wasn’t a fluke but team will want to reduce number of touches from 379.
Marion Barber – Would have been top 5 without the injuries and team will rely more heavily on the run with Terrell Owens gone.
DeAngelo Williams – Panthers will run heavily and no reason why offensive line won’t continue to open the holes.
LaDainian Tomlinson – 1,537 total yards and 12 TD’s is an off year? Sproles isn’t a threat to take over as the number one.
Maurice Jones-Drew – Finally gets to be a true number one but value hurt by ridiculously poor receiving core.
Joseph Addai – Look for a bounce back season and plenty of TD’s.
Frank Gore – Mike Singletary says they’re going to run and, if healthy, Gore’s going to top 1,600 total yards.
Matt Forte – Not overly talented but heady player gets huge touches and makes the most of them.
Brian Westbrook – Still solid but 71% of his production came in just five games which is cause for concern.
Clinton Portis – Top fantasy performer before injuries slowed him down. At just 27, stories of his demise are greatly exaggerated.
Steve Slaton – Almost assuredly will see touches reduced as team wants a big back for short yardage work.
Brandon Jacobs – Top five if he could ever stay healthy. Touches should increase with Derrick Ward’s departure.
Steven Jackson – Second most talented back in the league but no help from the offensive line or the passing game.
Chris Johnson – Proved that size wasn’t an issue but unlikely to see more than the 294 touches he had last year.
Ronnie Brown – Solid production in 2008 with less than 250 touches. Says here there will be less of a committee approach in 2009.
Ryan Grant – Struggled with nagging injuries but still managed to top 1,200 yards rushing. Was hurt by low TD total.
Thomas Jones – Wants more money. Jets might want more Leon Washington.
Kevin Smith – 670 yards rushing and four TD’s over the last eight games, despite having to face the Jags, Panthers and Vikings.
Marshawn Lynch – Solid player who suffers from having to face the Pats, Dolphins and Jets six times each season.
Derrick Ward – New regime in Tampa will hand the reins to their guy with Earnest Graham in reserve. Might not see the short yardage work.
Reggie Bush – Average PPG last three years – 11, 11 , 12. He’s missed ten games in two years.
Jonathan Stewart – Plan is to split carries but will bust out if Williams goes down.
Pierre Thomas – He takes over Deuce McAllister’s role full-time and gets increased touches when Reggie Bush is out.
Darren McFadden – He will be the starter with Michael Bush in a short yardage role. Lack of TD’s will hurt him.
Willie Parker – Productive when healthy and not facing top defenses. Breakaway speed might be gone.
Larry Johnson – Still talented but needs a change of scenery to rekindle motivation.
LeRon McClain – He epitomizes what the Ravens want in a back more than Willis McGahee. Expect increased touches in 2009.
LenDale White – Gets a lot of slack but has averaged 10 PPG two years in a row and gets the short yardage work.
Earnest Graham – Not as effective as in 2007 and rank assumes he will get the goal line touches in Tampa.
Tim Hightower – Looked great as a backup but lost as a starter. Not convinced Arizona will commit to the run.
Jamal Lewis – Bit of a surprise they haven’t tried harder to replace him. TD’s will be hard to come by.
Julius Jones – Greg Knapp brings his massive run production to Seattle but lack of TD’s will hold him back.
Cedric Benson – Only productive Bengal back in 2008 but likely gets some competition in the draft.
Leon Washington – Look for the Jets to get him more involved in 2009.
Willis McGahee – What a waste. Expect this to be his last year in Baltimore.
Darren Sproles – Too small to be a starter, good luck predicting when he’ll go off.
Felix Jones – Absolutely dynamic when healthy last season. Dallas has to give him 8-10 touches a game.
Fred Jackson – Averaged 11 touches in 2008 and will get between two and four starts with Lynch suspended.
Fred Taylor – Unless the light goes on for Maroney, he’s easily their most talented back.
Jerious Norwood – He looks great. Every year we hear about more touches but it never happens.
Ricky Williams – Skills are still there if Brown were to go down.
Michael Bush – Week 17, 177 yard, two TD effort against the Bucs wasn’t a fluke. He produces when given a chance.
Chester Taylor – Touches decreased from 186 in 2007 to 146 in 2008. Expect another drop in 2009.
Rashard Mendenhall – Boom or bust. Hopefully in 2009, he doesn’t take on Ray Lewis.
Correll Buckhalter – Least talented starting back in the league and Denver won’t run as much as in prior years.
Sammy Morris – He’ll have a couple of decent games before he gets hurt.
Ray Rice – Looks good but lost in the shuffle in Baltimore.
Ahmad Bradshaw – Runs as good or better than Ward but not as good as a receiver.
Jamaal Charles – Talented back who will be the first option if Johnson is traded.
Mewelde Moore – Looked better than Parker for much of last year but now 3rd on the depth chart.
Maurice Morris – He is what he is. Now he’s the backup in Detroit.
Brandon Jackson – Proved in 2008 that he had some ability but no challenge to Grant as the starter.
Kevin Faulk – Best of luck figuring out when he will have a big game.
Laurence Maroney – Looks like Tarzan, can play like Tarzan but more brittle than melba toast.
Jerome Harrison – Cleveland’s only backup and Lewis is getting old.
T.J. Duckett – He’ll get some TD’s but not much else.
Kolby Smith – Could produce if Johnson is traded.
Greg Jones – Currently the top backup in Jacksonville.
LaMont Jordan – Buckhalter is unlikely to last 16 games.

Comments (3)

Tight End Rankings

By: Dave Stringer — March 24, 2009 @ 12:06 pm

Filed under: Forecast

In 2008, tight ends basically were grouped in five different tiers. In the top tier, there was one player and that was Tony Gonzalez of the Chiefs with over 1,000 yards receiving and ten touchdowns.

The second tier consisted of the Cowboys’ Jason Witten, Dallas Clark of the Colts and Antonio Gates of the Chargers. Each of these players was held back by injury at some point in the season or else they might have joined Gonzalez in the top tier.

That was followed up the threesome of Visanthe Shiancoe (Vikings), Owen Daniels (Texans) and rookie John Carlson of the Seahawks. Shiancoe and Daniels enjoyed career seasons while Carlson benefitted from the injury issues Seattle had at wide receiver.

The next tier included Greg Olsen, Anthony Fasano, Zach Miller, Chris Cooley and Tony Scheffler. Cooley was a bit of a disappointment and Fasano was a revelation although he was very inconsistent. Olsen, Miller and Scheffler were all young players who continued their ascension up the tight end ranks.

After that, it was a cast of disappointments like Kellen Winslow and Heath Miller or players with mediocre skills or who weren’t quite ready for prime time like Kevin Boss.

With the top tight ends significantly outscoring those in the third and fourth tiers, it is position worth using a reasonably high draft pick or auction dollars on. The top four or five tight ends figure to outscore players below them significantly in 2009 so they are worth spending resources on to secure their services in your fantasy starting line-up. Just don’t go overboard in doing so.

Jason Witten – Five total points in games without Tony Romo plus Terrell Owens is gone.
Dallas Clark – Could have huge year if his red zone targets increase.
Tony Gonzalez – Hard to see him duplicating his 2008 performance.
Antonio Gates – Averaged over 120 targets between 2004-2007, only 92 in 2008.
Owen Daniels – 862 yards in 2008 with only two TDs, but that should increase in 2009.
Kellen Winslow – QB issues in Tampa but should rebound from an off year in 2008.
Chris Cooley – Elite status not likely given poor 2nd half performance by the Washington offense.
Greg Olsen – This should be the year he relegates Desmond Clark to the bench.
John Carlson – Targets should be down with T.J. Houshmandzadeh signing, and a healthy Deion Branch and Nate Burleson.
Tony Scheffler – Could be higher but what team will he be on in 2009?
Visanthe Shiancoe – Don’t expect seven TD’s in 2009.
Zach Miller – Bad offense in Oakland holds him back.
Kevin Boss – Giant offense might be without Plaxico Burress but replacement is likely.
Dustin Keller – Expect lots of catches but few TD’s unless the QB situation changes.
Heath Miller – Better prospects in 2009 with Nate Washington gone but still a fantasy backup.
Brent Celek – Could be in for a big year but plenty of options in Philly.
Jeremy Shockey – Just a bit part in the New Orleans offense.
Bo Scaife – Solid receiving tight end but doesn’t get enough targets.
Vernon Davis – Doesn’t taste as good as it looks in the wrapper.
Randy McMichael – Torry Holt is gone and remaining receivers are young.
Anthony Fasano – Boom or bust and unlikely to get seven TDs in 2009.
David Martin – Decent player playing part-time.
Benjamin Watson – See Vernon Davis.
Donald Lee – Solid in 2007 but an afterthought in 2008.
Todd Heap – More of a blocker now and will split time with L.J. Smith.
Jerramy Stevens – Decent option given his skills and Winslow’s injury history.
Martellus Bennett – Talented player could produce with Owens gone and better understanding of the playbook.
L.J. Smith – See Todd Heap.
Marcedes Lewis – The light hasn’t gone on yet, and it is unlikely to now.
Billy Miller – Solid producer when Shockey was out of the lineup in 2008.

Comments (0)

Quarterback Rankings

By: Dave Stringer — March 23, 2009 @ 12:15 pm

Filed under: Forecast

With teams now focused on the owners meetings and draft preparations well underway, free agents signings have slowed to a crawl and there has been little football news to relay, in particular with much of a fantasy football impact. Therefore, lets fill the void with my initial 2009 fantasy football rankings, kicking off with the quarterback position. These are re-draft league rankings, and certainly subject to change by the time July, August and September roll around, but they make for some dandy discussion right now.

In standard scoring leagues last summer, quarterbacks took the top two positions, six of the top eight, seven of the top ten and ten of the top 20 positions. What does this mean? It means that this position is typically going to be overvalued in all leagues but particularly so in ten team leagues. In leagues with twelve or more teams, then you probably don’t want to be the last person holding the bag before drafting your starting QB. Probably.

In general, with so many quarterbacks scoring so well in standard formats, there is no need to draft one too high or overpay for one in your auction.

Drew Brees – With a healthy Reggie Bush and more experience for the teams young receivers, Brees gets the nod at top spot.
Aaron Rodgers – Ryan Grant should be better and the team returns its top four receivers, all talented receivers to boot.
Philip Rivers – A full year of a healthy Antonio Gates will help make Rivers even more prolific.
Tom Brady – He’s back and so are Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The knee remains a concern.
Kurt Warner – The Cards return its offensive nucleus and should add offensive line and running back talent in the draft.
Peyton Manning – A year older and no proven talent at backup wide receiver.
Jay Cutler – Key pieces return on offense but drama with the new head coach could be an issue
Tony Romo – Terrell Owens departure leaves the team thin at receiver but a healthy Marion Barber would nearly even that out.
Matt Schaub – Perfect candidate to vault into the top five if he could ever manage to play 16 games.
Donovan McNabb – Underrated every year, but could suffer this season if a decent left tackle isn’t found in the draft or free agency.
Matt Hasselbeck – Injury issues and age are red flags, but T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and John Carlson form a solid nucleus of receivers.
Chad Pennington – Enjoyed a solid season in 2008 despite lack of talent at wide receiver. Benefits from no late season bad weather in Miami.
Carson Palmer – With no Houshmandzadeh, an offensive line in flux and Cedric Benson as the current starter at running back, Palmer has a lot of forces working against him.
Jason Campbell – This might be Campell’s last chance to put it together. He is going to need contributions from the youngsters Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.
Eli Manning – A perennial fantasy underachiever, who averaged less than 10 points per game without Plaxico Burress.
Ben Roethlisberger – Average, steady production. Doesn’t need to throw a lot of passes with his defense and loses his top deep threat in Nate Washington.
David Garrard – Had surprisingly strong season totals in 2008 thanks to the rushing yards. The team’s current wideouts are a major cause for concern.
Matt Cassel – Could (better) match Tyler Thigpen’s production provided Tony Gonzalez, Larry Johnson and Brian Waters aren’t traded.
Trent Edwards – Finally gets a 2nd option at receiver and one big enough to move the chains (Terrell Owens, in case you missed the memo).
Matt Ryan – A sophomore slump is unlikely but the Falcons are a running team.
Joe Flacco – Ditto Ryan.
Kyle Orton – He is what he is, receivers are what they are. It’s mediocrity everywhere and Frank Omiyale at right tackle.
Jake Delhomme – His receivers are a year older and his running backs are a year better. More ground and pound from the Panthers.
Brady Quinn – Prospects seemed reasonable prior to the Winslow trade. Now, not so much.
JaMarcus Russell – The team’s major strength is at running back. Russell’s wide receivers are just awful.
Shaun Hill – Head coach Mike Singletary made it clear he wants to pound the rock and play defense. Youngster Josh Morgan is not exactly a number one receiver, yet.
Kerry Collins – Unless the running game struggles, which seems doubtful, Collins won’t have an opportunity to produce big numbers.
Sage Rosenfels – His upside is limited with the team’s emphasis on the running game.
Marc Bulger – An offensive line in flux and the youngest group of top three wide receivers in the league spells potential disaster.
Luke McCown – Surrounded by decent talent but his accuracy is an issue.
Daunte Culpepper – One receiver, albeit a potentially great one, a decent running game and below average offensive line. Discount for the Lions factor.
Kellen Clemens – Hello to the worst current starter in terms of fantasy potential. When the rubber hits the road, you’ll be drafting some backup QB with a high upside ahead of Clemens.

Current backups who could produce if given an opportunity include Matt Leinart, Chris Simms, Vince Young, Derek Anderson, Kevin Kolb, Alex Smith and Tarvaris Jackson.

Comments (0)

Broncos A Mess

By: Dave Stringer — March 13, 2009 @ 1:17 pm

Filed under: Forecast

The Denver Broncos have a strong armed quarterback in Jay Cutler and apparently a head strong coach in Josh McDaniels. What remains to be seen is whether the head strong coach will come to the conclusion that he needs to make peace with his quarterback in order to salvage the team’s 2009 season and perhaps his position as head coach.

This whole sordid saga began when McDaniels broached the idea of trading Cutler as part of a three-team trade that would have brought his former pupil Matt Cassel to Denver. In Cutler’s mind, it doesn’t seem to matter whether Denver was approached by another team. What matters to him is that the idea wasn’t rejected at first glance. You can argue whether or not this was the proper reaction but it is what it is.

McDaniels and GM Brian Xanders then apparently made a bad situation worse by pulling a heavy on Cutler and telling him that, although they didn’t plan on trading him, they would if they felt it was good for the franchise. It never dawned on them that perhaps the best way to make peace was to simply say they had no intention of trading him and stopping there. Of course, the new sheriffs in town felt it was important to show off their badges, so rather than putting out the fire, they added fuel to it.

Although Cutler seems to be a bit immature (calling out wide receiver Brandon Marshall last season and overreacting to this situation), what should be clear to McDaniels is that this is a battle that he cannot win for a number of reasons. First off, this team isn’t going anywhere without Cutler at quarterback because of the question marks on defense and at running back. Second, it’s hard to believe that owner Pat Bowlen is going to allow his rookie head coach and general manager to trade the franchise quarterback whose physical and mental attributes mirror those of franchise icon John Elway. Finally, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Bowlen puts some handcuffs on his rookie duo given their lackluster performance thus far, including this situation as well as questionable free agent signings.

It says here that there’s a far greater likelihood of McDaniels and Xanders being one and done in Denver than of Bowlen allowing these neophytes to trade the current face of the franchise. The owner has already shown he will spend when necessary by axeing former coach Mike Shanahan and eating $21-million in the process.

Comments (0)

« Newer Posts

	A Fantasy Football Community!
		Create An Account \| Advertise \| Contact