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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — July 5, 2013 @ 11:00 am
QB Ben Roethlisberger
(2012 QB Rank – #21, 21.3 FPts/G)
 Roethlisberger: On the decline? With Big Ben, the question is which story do you believe? Is he the 31-year-old entrenched superstar coming off a superb season in which he threw for 3,265 yards with 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions in only 13 games? The one who would have put up even greater numbers if not for three missed games, subpar play along the offensive line, Mike Wallace’s holdout and Antonio Brown’s injury issues? Or is he the declining veteran who has failed to play all 16 games since the 2008 season and who figures to struggle in 2013, given Wallace’s departure and tight end Heath Miller’s questionable health as he returns from a torn ACL suffered late last season? While Roethlisberger figures to benefit from having a year of experience in offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s offense, there is no denying that the team has major issues at wide receiver and tight end, and an improved depth chart at running back. Pittsburgh’s talent level would seem to dictate a more balanced run/pass ratio in 2013, and that doesn’t bode well for Roethlisberger’s fantasy prospects. While he has been rated as a lower-tier QB1 or upper-tier QB2 for several seasons, he enters 2013 as a lower-tier QB2 because of his injury issues and the question marks among his receiving core.
RB Le’Veon Bell
(2012 RB Rank – N/A)
With Rashard Mendenhall having played and talked his way out of Pittsburgh and Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer having failed to prove themselves worthy of handling the lead running back role, the Steelers chose Michigan State’s Le’Veon Bell in the second round of this year’s draft. The 6’1”, 244-pound Bell had a productive collegiate career, excelling both as a rusher and a receiver with the Spartans. Although he has solid size, the knock on Bell in college was that he too often tried to dance his way around defenders rather than just running over them. He will need to correct that to succeed in the NFL given his lack of ideal speed. However, there is no denying that Pittsburgh was an ideal landing spot for Bell because of their propensity for relying on large running backs that can move the pile, and their lack of talent on the depth chart at running back. Bell should land the starting spot on opening day and, given the young talent on the offensive line and the question marks among the receivers, he should be considered an upper-tier RB2 in 2013.
RB Isaac Redman
(2012 RB Rank – #44, 5.5 FPts/G; #44 PPR, 6.9 FPts/G)
Much like Jonathan Dwyer, Redman failed to make the most of a solid opportunity in 2012. After looking like a potential starter while backing up Rashard Mendenhall in 2011, Redman spent 2012 proving that he wasn’t worthy of fulfilling that role. With rookie Le’Veon Bell tabbed to start, Redman will need to fend off Dwyer to earn the backup role. Given his superior pass-catching and blocking ability, look for Redman to earn that job; but his 2012 production makes him one of the league’s lower-rated handcuffs. His yards per carry dropped to 3.7 and he managed just two touchdowns despite his solid size. Consider Redman a RB4 or RB5 in 2013.
RB Jonathan Dwyer
(2012 RB Rank – #40, 6.5 FPts/G; #40 PPR, 7.9 FPts/G)
After earning just 25 carries in his first two seasons, Dwyer, the Steelers sixth-round pick in 2010, opened 2012 in a timeshare with Isaac Redman while Rashard Mendenhall recovered from a torn ACL. That move failed to pay off for the Steelers as Dwyer continued to confound the organization with his inconsistency. While he looked the part at times, he failed to lock down a starting position and the organization used a second-round pick to acquire Le’Veon Bell in the 2013 draft. With reports indicating that the Steelers were looking to trade Dwyer, it’s clear his roster spot is in jeopardy. He will need to beat out former Cardinal LaRod Stephens-Howling—provided he isn’t traded before opening day.
RB LaRod Stephens-Howling
(2012 RB Rank – #46, 6.5 FPts/G; #47 PPR, 6.2 FPts/G)
After they jettisoned scatback Chris Rainey, the Steelers signed Stephens-Howling to provide receiving depth out of the backfield. In his four years in the desert, Stephens-Howling provided a few big plays but failed to earn consistent playing time. He’s not big enough to be a successful inside runner and his 17 receptions in 2012 were a career-high. There’s no upside here, folks.
WR Antonio Brown
(2012 WR Rank – #37, 8.5 FPts/G; #32 PPR, 13.6 FPts/G)
Forced to deal with a tight salary cap situation, the Steelers chose to let Mike Wallace sign with the Dolphins, thereby elevating Antonio Brown to their lead receiving position despite his struggles during the 2012 season. Their decision to sign Brown to a lucrative contract extension when they had not yet done the same for the more talented Wallace could be a decision the team regrets for years to come. In Brown the Steelers have a 5’10”, 186-pound receiver who excels in running intermediate routes and can gain yards after the catch but lacks Wallace’s deep speed. After a breakout season with 1,108 receiving yards in 2011, Brown’s production plunged this past season, as he hauled in just 66 receptions for 787 yards and five touchdowns. That isn’t the type of production most teams expect from their lead receiver, although a high ankle sprain did cause Brown to miss three games and likely hindered his play in several others. Looking forward to 2013, Brown’s production will be impacted by the extra attention he will receive from opposing defenses and his ability to outplay the league’s top cornerbacks. He shapes up as a lower-tier WR2.
WR Emmanuel Sanders
(2012 WR Rank – #64, 4.3 FPts/G; #66 PPR, 7.1 FPts/G)
After three largely lackluster seasons, Sanders will move into the Steelers starting lineup for the first time. The 2010 third-round pick will take over for the departed Mike Wallace, and Pittsburgh is hoping his deep speed can deliver some big plays and keep opposing defenses from stacking the box on early downs. While Sanders has the speed, he lacks ideal size at 5’11” and 180 pounds and has scored just five touchdowns in his career. His best season came in 2012 as he was healthy for all 16 games for the first time and set career highs in receptions (44) and yards (626) while finding the end zone once. The Steelers are hoping he can build on that production as his targets take a leap upward from the 74 he had last season. The opportunity is there for Sanders, but it feels like it found him more than he found it. Consider him a lower-tier WR4 in 2013.
WR Markus Wheaton
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
Having failed to re-sign starting wide receiver Mike Wallace, the Steelers used a third-round pick to acquire Wheaton, the 5’11”, 182-pound Oregon State product who is expected to open the season backing up Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Wheaton has outstanding speed and the ability to make defenders miss, making him an excellent fit in offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s passing attack. To earn playing time as a rookie, Wheaton will need to unseat a pair of veterans in Plaxico Burress and Jerricho Cotchery. While that may not happen by opening day, look for Wheaton to become the team’s top backup by midseason—although Burress will likely fill that role in the red zone, provided he makes the team. While Wheaton isn’t worth owning in redraft formats, he is an excellent dynasty league prospect given that Sanders is working on a one-year contract.
WR Plaxico Burress
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
If there is one thing that Randy Moss’s 2012 comeback with San Francisco taught us, it’s that aging wide receivers that have missed extensive time don’t produce. While Burress may earn some red zone time and snag a few touchdowns, he has very little fantasy value in 2013.
TE Heath Miller
(2012 WR Rank – #4, 8.6 FPts/G; #4 PPR, 13.4 FPts/G)
After a pair of middling seasons in 2010 and 2011, Miller appeared to be a spent force entering 2012. However, at age 29, he proved his doubters wrong by having the best season of his eight-year career. Miller had career highs in yards (816) and touchdowns (8) while hauling in 71 receptions, the second highest total of his career. While that production would generally make for a mid-tier TE1, Miller suffered a torn ACL two days before Christmas and is unlikely to be ready for opening day. A spot on the PUP is possible, perhaps even likely, and it may take him much of 2013 to get back to where he was last season, if it happens at all. The truth is that Miller is only worth owning in larger leagues as a TE2 or TE3. He might be worth stashing on your roster in dynasty formats if the price is right.
By: Dave Stringer — July 3, 2013 @ 10:18 am
QB Andy Dalton
(2012 QB Rank – #12, 20.5 FPts/G)
The truth of the matter is that during his two years in the league, Dalton has proven to be a much better player in real football terms than as a fantasy player. With two straight trips to the postseason under his leadership, the Bengals can’t be disappointed with having used a second-round pick to acquire the Texas Christian product in the 2011 draft. The question is whether he is ready to make a fantasy leap forward in 2013. Comments from the team’s management and coaching staff clearly indicate they want Dalton to take more chances this season in hopes of propelling the team deeper into the postseason (they have lost in the wild card round in each of their playoff appearances). With the superlative A.J. Green at wide receiver, as well as numerous young players that could emerge, a pair of pass-catching tight ends, and a new pass-catching option at running back in rookie second-round pick Giovani Bernard, Dalton has plenty of options to throw to. Include one of the league’s better offensive lines, and it’s clear that Dalton is surrounded by plenty of talent in Cincinnati. We’re just going to have to see it happen before we draft him as a QB1. Consider Dalton a mid-tier QB2 with upside in 2013.
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis
(2012 RB Rank – #19, 10.4 FPts/G; #22 PPR, 11.9 FPts/G)
Having moved on from Cedric Benson, the Bengals signed BenJarvus Green-Ellis prior to the 2012 season and he had a solid first season in Cincinnati. Green-Ellis topped 1,000 rushing yards for the second time in his five-year career, finishing with 1,094 yards and six touchdowns. He doesn’t offer much wiggle as a rusher and also lacks top-end speed, but he gets what is blocked and rarely fumbles (the two fumbles he had in 2012 were the first two of his career). Given Green-Ellis’s limitations, it was no surprise when the Bengals used a second-round pick on Giovani Bernard, but his acquisition didn’t torpedo Green-Ellis’s fantasy value since they are completely different runners. Look for Green-Ellis to retain his starting role but see his touches drop to the 250 range from the 300 he had last year. That should be good enough for him to finish 2013 as a mid-tier RB3.
RB Giovani Bernard
(2012 RB Rank – N/A)
Lacking playmaking speed out of the backfield, the Bengals used the 37th pick in the 2013 draft on Giovani Bernard, making him the first running back taken. The 5’10”, 205-pound North Carolina product is expected to open the season working as a change-of-pace back and as the team’s main receiving weapon out of the backfield. However, BenJarvus Green-Ellis’s limitations are well known, so Bernard figures to have an opportunity to earn an increased role as the season progresses. For that to happen, Bernard will need to avoid turning the ball over and become a more physical runner between the tackles. Look for him to earn a bigger split of the work in the Bengals backfield as the season progresses but to remain in a complimentary role to Green-Ellis for all of 2013. That makes him a great flex option with upside as a low-end RB3.
RB Bernard Scott
(2012 RB Rank – #135, 1.8 FPts/G; #139 PPR, 1.8 FPts/G)
During the 2012 offseason, the Bengals signed free agent running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis from the New England Patriots. During the 2013 offseason, Cincinnati used a second-round pick to acquire North Carolina speedster Giovani Bernard. Do you think the writing is on the wall for Scott? After four largely non-descript seasons in Cincinnati and a 2012 season in which injuries forced him to miss 14 games, Scott was forced to re-sign with the Bengals after failing to receive a decent offer from one of the league’s other 31 teams. He will battle Cedric Peerman and sixth-round pick Rex Burkhead for a roster spot in 2013.
RB Cedric Peerman
(2012 RB Rank – #69, 4.0 FPts/G; #72 PPR, 4.9 FPts/G)
Peerman has kicked around the league for the last four seasons, contributing mostly on special teams. While he has looked good in preseason contests, he failed to earn much playing time until last season when he stepped in for an injured Bernard Scott to back up BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He was surprisingly solid, gaining 258 yards and a touchdown on just 36 carries while averaging 7.2 yards per carry. He also caught all nine of his targets for another 85 yards. While Peerman isn’t worth drafting, there is an outside chance he could emerge as a flex option if starter Green-Ellis were lost to injury.
RB Rex Burkhead
(2012 RB Rank – N/A)
While Burkhead lacks the athleticism to emerge as a starting running back, the Nebraska product has solid chance to earn a position on the Bengals roster as a rookie. The sixth-round pick will battle the disappointing Bernard Scott and veteran journeyman Cedric Peerman for a roster spot. If he wins a spot, he might be worth grabbing in dynasty leagues given BenJarvus Green-Ellis’s limitations as a rusher. If rookie second-round pick Giovani Bernard emerges as a starter, the Bengals may not wish to pay the tab required to keep the Law Firm around as a backup, and Burkhead’s game very much resembles his.
 A candidate for the second best wideout behind Calvin Johnson. WR A.J. Green
(2012 WR Rank – #4, 12.8 FPts/G; #3 PPR, 18.9 FPts/G)
After putting together a Pro Bowl season as a rookie in 2011 with 65 receptions for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns in 15 games, more was expected of A.J. Green last season, and it’s safe to say the Bengals weren’t disappointed. The 24-year old Georgia product scored ten touchdowns in his first ten games on his way to a 97-reception, 1,350-yard, 11-touchdown season. The sky is the limit for Green and he is in the conversation as the league’s second best wide receiver behind the Lions’ Calvin Johnson. In fact, if not for the other contenders having more proven quarterbacks throwing them the ball, there might not be any conversation as to who is Johnson’s heir apparent as the league’s next top receiver. Unfortunately, Andy Dalton’s arm strength and lack of deep ball accuracy hold Green back a bit. Consider Green a lock to be a top five WR in 2013, and don’t be surprised if he winds up second.
WR Mohamed Sanu
(2012 WR Rank – #94, 6.8 FPts/G; #101 PPR, 9.5 FPts/G)
The book on Sanu coming out of Rutgers as a third-round pick in the 2012 draft was that he was an outstanding possession receiver with good hands. With 16 receptions for 154 yards and four touchdowns in nine games, Sanu proved he was a solid red zone target before a stress fracture in his left foot ended his season. While Sanu hauled in 11 passes for 98 yards and four touchdowns in his final four games as the Bengals made a clear decision to get him more involved, it is hard to get very excited by a possession receiver who is big but not that big (6’2”, 210 pounds), lacks speed and playmaking ability (9.6 yards per receptions) and plays in an offense that added skill position players in the first and second rounds of the draft (tight end Tyler Eifert and running back Giovani Bernard). Did we mention that his starting position isn’t even guaranteed? There are many mouths to feed in Cincinnati, and since one of those mouths is A.J. Green’s, we feel there are better players worth taking a flier on in 2013 than Sanu.
WR Marvin Jones
(2012 WR Rank – #106, 3.9 FPts/G; #110 PPR, 6.1 FPts/G)
Entering the league as a fifth-round pick in the 2012 draft, Jones had a good opportunity to earn significant playing time due to the lack of experienced options to play opposite A.J. Green. Unfortunately, the 6’3”, 200-pound California product was largely disappointing, hauling in just 18 receptions for 201 yards and a score through eleven games, which included five starts. Jones finished the season strongly, however, catching 10 passes for 110 yards and a score in his final two games. He has more upside as a receiver than his main competition, fellow second-year player Mohamed Sanu, but the Bengals seem content to roll with a possession receiver at that No. 2 spot. Monitor Jones’ preseason progress, but at this point he is waiver-wire material in redraft leagues.
WR Andrew Hawkins
(2012 WR Rank – #61, 5.7 FPts/G; #57 PPR, 9.4 FPts/G)
While Hawkins took a circuitous route to the NFL, spending a pair of seasons in the CFL, he has developed into a solid slot receiver during his two years in Cincinnati. After a decent rookie season, Hawkins emerged in 2012, hauling in 51 receptions for 533 yards and four touchdowns, totals good enough to rank second among Cincinnati’s wide receivers. Unfortunately for Hawkins, the odds are stacked against his replicating those numbers in 2013. The team added pass-catching tight end Tyler Eifert in the first round, and they are looking for second-year wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones to take a step forward. Hawkins isn’t worth owning in 2013.
WR Brandon Tate
(2012 WR Rank – #112, 2.3 FPts/G; #119 PPR, 3.3 FPts/G)
Despite flashing his playmaking skills on the practice field and as a returner during his time in Cincinnati, Tate has failed to earn consistent playing time in the team’s offense. With a pile of first- and second-year players to compete against for playing time, look for Tate to once again be relegated to a return-game role in 2013.
TE Jermaine Gresham
(2012 WR Rank – #10, 6.5 FPts/G; #10 PPR, 10.5 FPts/G)
Entering 2012, expectations were high for the Bengals’ 2010 first rounder, with Jay Gruden bringing his version of the West Coast offense to Cincinnati. While Gresham increased his receptions and yardage totals for the third straight season, finishing the year with 64 catches for 737 yards and five touchdowns, there remains a lingering feeling that he is capable of much more. Unfortunately, with the addition of first-round pick Tyler Eifert to bolster the position, Gresham’s outstanding athleticism doesn’t seem likely to translate into solid fantasy production in 2013. While the Bengals lack a proven threat opposite A.J. Green at wide receiver, and while Gresham has the talent to emerge as an upper-tier TE, he is best drafted as a TE2 once again in 2013.
TE Tyler Eifert
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
With Germaine Gresham having failed to elevate his game during his first three years in the league, the Bengals used a first-round pick on pass-catching tight end Tyler Eifert. The Notre Dame product has solid athleticism and the speed to get deep and has excelled in the red zone in college, making him a worthy selection for a team looking to add playmakers on offense. While Eifert is a solid pro prospect and an outstanding addition to your dynasty squad, the fact is that Gresham has played well enough to retain his starting job. In addition, neither player can be considered an upper-tier blocker, which means there are no guarantees they will spent the majority of the time on the field together. Don’t expect Eifert to establish himself as a fantasy option in his rookie season.
By: Dave Stringer — June 27, 2013 @ 8:01 pm
 Can Brady make lemonade out of these lemons? QB Tom Brady
(2012 QB Rank – #3, 25.3 FPts/G)
Father Time catches up to all professional athletes, and in the NFL the process is often expedited at the quarterback position when the team’s skill position players suffer a drop in talent. And that is the scenario unfolding for the 35-year-old Brady in New England. While Brady has often made lemonade out of lemons, he faces perhaps the toughest challenge of his career in 2013 as he attempts to keep the team’s proliferate passing offense operating at peak proficiency without wide receiver Wes Welker, who the team failed to re-sign, and tight end Aaron Hernandez, who was released after an offseason marred with legal troubles. In addition, Rob Gronkowski, arguably the most talented tight end in the league, may open the season on the PUP list after having offseason back surgery, and the current depth chart at wide receiver may be the worst since Brady joined the team in 2000. Although Brady is coming off a season in which he threw for 4,827 yards with 34 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, he is unlikely to reach that level of production this season. He certainly isn’t a lock to finish the season as a top five fantasy quarterback and shouldn’t be drafted as such. Consider him in the tier below the big four of Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Cam Newton but with more risk than ever before.
RB Stevan Ridley
(2012 RB Rank – #10, 12.7 FPts/G; #15 PPR, 13.1 FPts/G)
With BenJarvus Green-Ellis having departed via free agency to Cincinnati, there was little doubt that Ridley was going to get plenty of opportunities in the Patriots backfield, but not many predicted that he would have such a strong breakout season. By season’s end, he had accumulated 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns on 290 carries and was remarkably consistent, chalking up 8 or more fantasy points in 12 of 16 games. With Belichick’s inconsistent usage of his running backs, that was an impressive feat for Ridley. Don’t expect much to change in 2013, as Ridley is expected to share the majority of the backfield work with fellow 2011 draftee Shane Vereen. If there is a knock on Ridley, it is his lack of receiving ability; but given his size advantage over Vereen, his only competition for short-yardage work will come from Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount. Look for Ridley to hold them off and finish 2013 as a low-end RB1 or upper-tier RB2.
RB Shane Vereen
(2012 RB Rank – #49, 5.8 FPts/G; #57 PPR, 6.5 FPts/G)
It took a little over a year and a half, but the Patriots’ second-round pick in the 2011 draft finally carved out a role for himself as the 2012 season came to a close. Nagging injuries hurt his performance in 2011 and the emergence of Stevan Ridley, coupled with the presence of Danny Woodhead, limited his playing time last season. However, he topped 100 total yards in Week 12 against the Jets and again in the Patriots’ divisional playoff win over the Texans—a game in which he scored three touchdowns. With Woodhead in San Diego and Ridley strictly a two-down player, Vereen has flex potential in 2013. He rates as an RB4 with upside, provided you can live with the inconsistent usage of the running backs in New England.
RB Brandon Bolden
(2012 RB Rank – #68, 5.1 FPts/G; #78 PPR, 5.3 FPts/G)
The rookie free agent had a decent rookie season, chalking up 274 and a pair of touchdowns on 56 carries—including a 137-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 4 against Buffalo— before a four-game suspension cost him his spot on the depth chart. With Stevan Ridley having a breakout performance last season and Shane Vereen playing well late in the season, Bolden will need to beat out Leon Washington and LeGarrette Blount to earn a spot on the roster. He has a good chance of doing that but, barring injury, has little fantasy appeal in 2013.
RB Leon Washington
(2012 RB Rank – #105, 1.5 FPts/G; #109 PPR, 1.8 FPts/G)
The expectation was once that Washington would turn into a solid change-of-pace player out of the backfield, but those hopes are pretty much extinct now. In Seattle last season, Washington had just 27 touches, the lowest total of his seven-year career. Don’t expect that to change in New England this year.
RB LeGarrette Blount
(2012 RB Rank – #88, 2.7 FPts/G; #97 PPR, 2.8 FPts/G)
Blount’s career has taken a serious downturn since he was a surprise 1000-yard rusher in Tampa Bay as a rookie in 2010. After a disappointing 2011 season (781 rushing yards), Blount lost his job to Doug Martin last season and this offseason was traded to the Patriots for Jeff Demps and a seventh-round pick, a trade that allowed New England to avoid paying Demps the salary guarantees in his contract. Your fantasy prospects don’t look good when a team has given away a seventh-round pick in order to avoid paying another player guaranteed money.
WR Danny Amendola
(2012 WR Rank – #56, 7.8 FPts/G; #47 PPR, 13.5 FPts/G)
Signed away from the Rams this offseason in an attempt to provide an upgrade over the most successful slot receiver in the history of the NFL (32-year-old Wes Welker), Amendola will enter the season atop the Patriots depth chart at receiver. That is, provided he remains healthy until opening day. I mean, hey, who wouldn’t want to replace a player who has averaged 112 receptions, 1,244 receiving yards, 11.1 yards per reception and 6.2 touchdowns over the past six seasons with one who has averaged 51 receptions, 467 receiving yards, 9.2 yards per reception and 2.0 touchdowns over the past three seasons while missing 20 games over the past two years? I guess that decision was settled when the Pats found out they could sign Amendola to a five-year contract worth up to $31.8-million rather than re-sign Welker for $12-million over two years. Amendola is a fearless slot receiver, but it is foolhardy to think he will replace Welker’s production or remain healthy for 16 games when he has accomplished that feat just once in his four years in the league. Consider him a WR3 with major risk in 2013.
WR Donald Jones
(2012 WR Rank – #67, 5.7 FPts/G; #69 PPR, 9.1 FPts/G)
One man’s trash is another’s man’s treasure, although it seems more than a little odd that the Bills’ trash became the Patriots’ treasure in the form of one Donald Jones, a restricted free agent that Buffalo chose not to tender. Looks like the Patriots were impressed by Jones’ five-reception, 101-yard performance (the only 100-yard receiving game of his career) against them in 2011. While snagging passes from Tom Brady in the Patriots high-powered offense is a marked improvement over playing in Buffalo, the truth is that even if Jones opens the season in the staring lineup, the Patriots are going to rely heavily on Danny Amendola and their tight ends and running backs, with the team’s other wide receivers left to pick up the scraps. You might find lightning in a bottle by grabbing Jones, but he should be waiver wire material in most leagues.
WR Julian Edelman
(2012 WR Rank – #88, 5.8 FPts/G; #88 PPR, 8.4 FPts/G)
Edelman’s first four years in the league were so impressive that neither the Patriots nor any other team bothered to offer him a contract until New England finally re-signed him in mid April to a one-year deal. After an impressive rookie season in which he caught 37 passes for 359 yards and a touchdown, Edelman has floundered over the past three seasons, hauling in just 32 passes. He provides insurance out of the slot for Danny Amendola and might be worth grabbing on the waiver wire if (when?) Amendola goes down.
WR Aaron Dobson
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
The Patriots used a second-round draft pick to acquire Dobson and the 6’3″, 200-pound product out of Marshall will have an opportunity to open the season in the starting lineup. Possessed with solid speed, Dobson has the makeup to be a lead receiver, but the Patriots’ poor track record in developing receivers doesn’t provide much assurance that he will have a productive career. Of course, given the lack of depth the team has at the position, Dobson figures to get a long look at some point in 2013. He is a decent prospect in dynasty leagues but waiver wire fodder in redraft formats, barring a strong showing in the preseason.
WR Josh Boyce
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
Drafted in the fourth-round out of TCU, Boyce enters a crowded yet mediocre depth chart at wide receiver in New England. More a blazer than a polished route runner at this point in his career, Boyce will likely fulfill the deep receiver role as a rookie, making him unlikely to produce big stats in 2013. He is worth taking a flier on in dynasty formats.
WR Michael Jenkins
(2012 WR Rank – #77, 3.6 FPts/G; #74 PPR, 6.1 FPts/G)
After spending a pair of middling seasons in Minnesota, Atlanta’s former first-round pick joins the Patriots in 2013. The fact is that he is likely there to learn the playbook so that he can provide injury insurance later in the season. It will be a surprise if Jenkins is on the roster come opening day.
TE Rob Gronkowski
(2012 WR Rank – #2, 13.2 FPts/G; #5 PPR, 18.2 FPts/G)
We know Gronkowski has plenty of upside, but his growing list of injuries brings along plenty of risk. While his forearm is expected to be fine in 2013, offseason back surgery will almost assuredly keep him from being ready for the opening of training camp, and there is an outside chance of his opening the season on the PUP list. Of course, Gronkowski finished last season as the second-ranked fantasy TE (despite appearing in just 11 games) and has a whopping 39 touchdowns over the last three years. If healthy for 16 games, he will likely be the top-ranked TE in 2013, but the odds aren’t strong that he will be available for the entire season. Despite that, he should come off the board in your league’s draft no later than the third round, and the only tight end that is worthy of being taken ahead of him is the Saints’ Jimmy Graham.
TE Jake Ballard
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
After suffering a torn ACL in the Giants Super Bowl win over the Patriots in 2011, the Giants tried to pass Ballard through waivers only to have the Patriots put in a claim on him, even though they knew he was likely to miss all of the 2012 season. That move may prove to be an astute one given the legal woes of Aaron Hernandez. Ballard was a reliable target for Eli Manning in 2011, hauling in 38 of his 61 targets for 604 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games. If his recovery goes well, Ballard is the favorite to land the Patriots’ second tight end spot behind Rob Gronkowski in an offense that relies heavily on two–tight end sets.
TE Michael Hoomanawanui
(2012 WR Rank – #60, 1.8 FPts/G; #63 PPR, 2.7 FPts/G)
While Hoomanawanui did little in his first season in New England, with just five receptions for 109 yards through six games, he has a chance to earn some playing time in 2013 due to Aaron Hernandez’s legal troubles. Hoomanawanui will battle Jake Ballard and Daniel Fells for a spot in the Patriots two–tight end sets.
TE Daniel Fells
(2012 WR Rank – #67, 1.4 FPts/G; #72 PPR, 2.1 FPts/G)
With Rob Gronkowski unable to remain healthy and Aaron Hernandez now released, Fells has a chance to earn some playing time in 2013. Remember that he is a reasonably talented player that put together a 41-reception season on a middling Rams squad in 2010, so he has some receiving ability. He will battle Jake Ballard and Mike Hoomanawanui for a spot on the depth chart.
By: Dave Stringer — June 17, 2013 @ 10:18 am
QB EJ Manuel
(2012 QB Rank – N/A)
Being a first-round pick means that a quarterback has the talent to play the position. Unfortunately, for close to 15 years, being a Buffalo Bills quarterback has meant not being a productive quarterback. With new coach Doug Marrone, perhaps that will change and Florida State rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel will become the team’s most productive starting quarterback since, well, Doug Flutie. Manuel has the size, arm strength, accuracy and running ability to be a solid starter, but he was a surprise first-round pick who didn’t run a full-scale, pro-style offense at Florida State. The Bills have solid weapons at running back and a wide receiver depth chart loaded with potential, but Manuel is more of a dynasty prospect than a player you will want to own in your redraft league.
QB Kevin Kolb
(2012 QB Rank – #35, 17.8 FPts/G)
Having released incumbent starter Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills signed Kolb to a modest two-year, $6.1-million contract in the offseason with the expectation that they would use the draft to acquire a prospect at quarterback. Sure enough, Buffalo used the 16th pick in the draft to acquire E.J. Manuel. With Manuel considered a raw prospect, Kolb could open the season in the starting lineup, but he would need to be effective in leading the team on a potential playoff run to remain under center for 16 games. Given his history of injuries and ineffectiveness, the odds of that happening are remote.
 A heavier workload is expected for C.J. Spiller this season. RB C.J. Spiller
(2012 RB Rank – #7, 13.6 FPts/G; #6 PPR, 16.3 FPts/G)
After looking mostly like a bust for the first year and a half of his career, Spiller is coming off a run of 22 games through which he has accumulated 2,336 total yards and 11 touchdowns, including 1,703 yards and eight scores in 2012. That is the type of production a mid-tier RB1 puts up and is certainly impressive considering Spiller had six games last year with 13 or fewer touches. With a new coaching staff in Buffalo and Spiller having proven that he deserves to start and get a heavy dose of touches, he has the potential to be a top five fantasy RB in 2013. Considering Spiller averaged 6.0 yards per carry and 10.7 yards per reception last season, look for the Bills to get him far more touches than the 250 he had last season. That bodes well for his fantasy prospects in 2013.
RB Fred Jackson
(2012 RB Rank – #36, 8.9 FPts/G; #34 PPR, 12.3 FPts/G)
After starting 2011 on a pace that had him headed to the Pro Bowl, only to suffer a season-ending fractured fibula in Week 11, it has been all downhill for Jackson. He has appeared in just ten games in each of the last two seasons, with a pair of right knee sprains limiting him in 2012. While still productive when healthy last season (he averaged 65 total yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game), Jackson is headed for more of a pure backup role in 2013 because of C.J. Spiller’s emergence. Still, at 32 years of age, Jackson is one of the most highly rated handcuffs in the league, making him a solid RB3.
RB Tashard Choice
(2012 RB Rank – #91, 3.3 FPts/G; #94 PPR, 3.8 FPts/G)
At 28 years of age, Choice has been relegated to a third-string role in Buffalo. However, with Fred Jackson struggling to remain healthy in each of the last two seasons, Choice has a chance to see the field in 2013. Just don’t expect him to get the ball much, even when he does play. He has hit double-digit touches just twice during his year-and-a-half stay with the Bills.
WR Steve Johnson
(2012 WR Rank – #20, 8.8 FPts/G; #18 PPR, 13.7 FPts/G)
The knock on Johnson is that he isn’t a true No. 1 wide receiver. While that may be the case, he is remarkably consistent, catching between 76 and 82 balls for 1,004 to 1,073 yards and six to ten touchdowns over the last three years while averaging 13.1, 13.2 and 13.2 yards per reception. The easy thing would be to project him for 80 receptions for 1,050 yards and seven touchdowns in 2013, and who could quibble with that? However, the wrinkle in that equation is the quarterback situation in Buffalo, where Kevin Kolb will likely start the season before giving way to rookie first-round pick E.J. Manuel at some point. While Johnson will remain the focal point of the Bills passing attack in 2013, look for his production to dip slightly, making him only a high-end WR3 this season.
WR Robert Woods
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
Unable over the past three seasons to find a consistently productive wide receiver opposite Steve Johnson among a cast of undrafted free agents and low-round picks, the Bills used a high second-round pick to acquire Woods. The USC receiver is a polished product with good size but lacks true deep speed. However, he was consistently productive in college and faces little competition to open the season in the starting lineup. With tight end Scott Chandler coming off a late-season ACL injury, Woods could surprise in 2013. Consider him as a late-round flier in redraft leagues and a solid prospect in dynasty formats.
WR T.J. Graham
(2012 WR Rank – #99, 2.6 FPts/G; #85 PPR, 4.6 FPts/G)
The future looked rosy for Graham after the Bills used a third-round pick to acquire him during the 2012 draft. However, after a marginally productive rookie campaign during which he caught 31 passes for 322 yards and one touchdown, Graham faces a crowded depth chart with the addition of a pair of draft picks in Robert Woods (2nd rnd) and Marquise Goodwin (3rd rnd), as well as undrafted rookie free agent Da’Rick Rogers. Monitor Graham during the preseason and consider him worth a late-round flier, in hopes that he earns a spot in the starting lineup.
WR Marquise Goodwin
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
One year after drafting the smallish T.J. Graham in the third round, the Bills drafted another undersized receiver in Goodwin in the third round. Welcome to drafting science, Buffalo style. Sure, a new coach is in town, but recently retired general manager Buddy Nix was on hand to make both picks. At 5’9” and 179 pounds, Goodwin is destined to play out of the slot, but the speedster will have a hard time carving out a meaningful role during his rookie season. Goodwin is a low rated dynasty prospect.
WR Da’Rick Rogers
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
With solid size and speed, Rogers should have been a Day Two draft pick. His off-the-field activities prevented that, however, and the Bills chose to take a shot at him as an undrafted free agent. The early prognosis is that this was an astute move by Buffalo, but one wrong step will result in Rogers exit from roster. Provided he keeps it together, he is worth gambling on with one of your lower roster spots.
WR Marcus Easley
(2012 WR Rank – N/A)
What can you say about Marcus Easley other than he’s been the victim of some extremely bad luck. He missed his first two seasons with injuries, including a heart ailment, before finally appearing in three games last season but failing to catch a pass. With Steve Johnson and four first- or second-year players ahead of him on the depth chart, Easley’s string of bad luck doesn’t figure to end in 2013.
TE Scott Chandler
(2012 TE Rank – #13, 6.2 FPts/G; #15 PPR, 9.1 FPts/G)
While Chandler solidified the Bills at the tight end position over the past two seasons, his outlook for 2013 is uncertain because of the torn ACL he suffered in Week 16 last year. While Chandler established career highs last season in receptions (43) and yards (571), he was far less effective in a more expanded role than in 2011. His reception-to-target ratio dropped from a very solid 82.6 to just 58.1. Coming off a serious late-season injury and with an uncertain situation at quarterback, Chandler is little more than bye-week filler in 2013.
By: Mike Krueger — June 3, 2013 @ 4:12 am
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 6/3/13
Our initial release for 2013 has over 800 players projected and ranked. Sporadic updates will occur in June with weekly updates kicking off in July through the start of the season. We’ll also do unscheduled updates as needed, typically for significant injuries that occur between scheduled updates.
Quarterbacks
- Robert Griffin III (#15) – I know my inbox will be flooded, but his injury risk is too sizeable for my taste. I’ll slide him up as we get closer to Week 1 assuming his rehab continues to go well, but even healthy, I don’t see him cracking my top ten.
- Tom Brady (#7) – The Pats have lost their lone rock at the receiving position and replaced Welker with an adequate, but injury-prone player. Is this the year the revolving door at the position takes a bite out of Brady’s magic?
- Carson Palmer (#20) – I like his upside in Bruce Arians’ offense and should be a great fantasy QB2 with QB1 upside.
Running Backs
- Arian Foster (#2) – His heavy workload the last three years will shouted at you by many fantasy analysts this summer and an early calf injury only adds fuel to the fire. He’s No. 2 for now, but I wouldn’t hold it against anyone for taking Dougie instead.
- Le’Veon Bell (#12) – Great opportunity for the rookie. We’ll follow his progress closely during camp.
- Reggie Bush (#14) – PPR value is back on the rise.
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
By: Mike Krueger — April 29, 2013 @ 11:44 am
After a scan of the runners taken during the 2013 draft this past weekend, here are my early top ten rookie running backs for re-draft leagues. Keep in mind; a number of rookies had a fantasy impact last year – Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Trent Richardson, Vick Ballard and David Wilson. Martin, Morris and Richardson finished among the top ten fantasy running backs in 2012.
 The new workhorse in Pittsburgh. 1. Le’Veon Bell, PIT – With Mendenhall moving on to Arizona the Steelers have a void at the RB position. Bell is projected to be an every-down back and rumors of Jonathan Dwyer being shopped in a potential trade have begun to surface.
2. Eddie Lacy, GB – Lacy was a shoe-in to be top on the list until the Packers selected Johnathan Franklin later in the draft. Lacy’s likely use around the goaline gives him the early leg up over the smaller Franklin.
3. Montee Ball, DEN – The Broncos have a crowded backfield at the moment but with one pick slip handed to Willis McGahee, Ball’s fantasy value will shoot up the charts. He has the potential to be the focus of the Broncos running game.
4. Giovani Bernard, CIN – Bernard is a much better receiver than the LawFirm but is a bit on the smallish side (5-foot-9) to be a workhorse. He’s got a chance to fill the role Bernard Scott has yet to fulfill.
5. Johnathan Franklin, GB – Franklin is a perfect compliment to Lacy and could become a fantasy force if Lacy’s injury concerns become a reality in 2013. He’ll likely compete with DuJuan Harris for carries.
6. Zac Stacy, STL – Stacy lands in St. Louis in a prime situation. Gone is Steven Jackson and left behind are second-year players Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead with Stacy the more likely to receive goaline carries.
7. Stepfan Taylor, ARI – Mendenahll will get his chance this year to be the workhorse in Arizona but he is on a one-year contract and prone to injury. Coaches are typically reluctant to put rookie running backs on the field due to their lack of prowess in pass-blocking but Taylor does have above-average ability in that department. At the very least, he should fill a complementary role to Mendy in 2013.
8. Knile Davis, KC – Davis is known as injury-prone and a fumbler but does have immense talent. He’ll have to shake the former if he wants a steady role as Jamaal Charles’ backup and with Shaun Draughn currently holding down the job, the opportunity is there.
9. Andre Ellington, ARI – Bruce Arians is definitely trying to revamp his running back group. Ellington will likely spend most of time on special teams this season but he’s someone to keep an eye on if the Mendenhall experiment fails.
10. Joseph Randle, DAL – DeMarco Murray is the unquestioned started in Big-D but behind him is a vacancy. Jerry Jones already projects him to be the backup behind Murray making him very fantasy relevant given Murray’s injury history.
By: Doug Orth — April 28, 2013 @ 8:28 pm
 6.03 – Lions: WR Corey Fuller
Nothing wrong with taking a flyer on this speedy, athletic receiver. Fuller is raw and won’t threaten Nate Burleson this season, but could be the deep threat the Lions wanted Titus Young to be. Fuller is worth a third-round rookie pick in dynasty leagues.
6.04 – Raiders: TE Nick Kasa
Not much should be expected from the converted DE early on, but given the lack of talent at TE in Oakland, Kasa will likely play early due to his run-blocking ability. He does a fine job of getting down the field, which could help him land on the dynasty radar at some point down the road.
6.09 – Bills: K Dustin Hopkins
With Rian Lindell turning 36, his time in the NFL is likely coming to an end. Hopkins was one of the country’s top kickers in high school and became the NCAA FBS all-time kick scorer with 459 points. Hopkins will almost certainly be the kicker Week 1, but Buffalo’s offense might hold him back a bit in 2013.
6.14 – Panthers: RB Kenjon Barner
I understand the need to stock up at RB, but Carolina seems to always have a RB surplus while being short at so many other positions. Either way, they get their young speed back to complement the long-term duo of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Barner makes for an interesting chess piece on an offense that has used as much zone-read as it has with Cam Newton. No redraft value here, but he could work himself into the dynasty conversation once Williams moves on.
6.19 Cardinals: RB Andre Ellington
New HC Bruce Arians obviously did not like what he saw at RB when he arrived. A late second-round RB pick puts Ryan Williams on notice and suggests the team will have no problem moving on from Rashard Mendenhall after this year if he doesn’t perform well on his one-year deal. I think Ellington is a bit more exciting for fantasy purposes than Taylor, but both backs are among the best blockers at the position. Like Taylor, Ellington has a decent shot at dynasty league value in 2014, but a committee (w/o Mendy) is possible.
6.22 – Bengals: RB Rex Burkhead
It’s hard not to love Burkhead, who reminds me a lot of Jacob Hester. Burkhead probably isn’t going to push BJGE out of a job in 2013, but he has enough red-zone chops to allow Cincinnati to move on from the Law Firm at the end of the 2014 season and work in tandem with Gio Bernard.
6.29 Bengals: WR Cobi Hamilton
On a field that featured future pros Jarius Wright and Greg Childs (pre-injury), Hamilton stood out the most to me in the games I watched of his in 2011. As I’ve said before with Arkansas, I’m willing to write off a good part of 2012 for all Razorbacks in what was just a chaotic situation. Hamilton struck me as a second- or third-round prospect before 2012, so he should stick with Cincy. He’ll compete with Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu for outside duties. Unless injuries hit the WR corps like they did last season, Hamilton probably is off the redraft radar. However, I like his 2011 tape enough to believe he could be the WR2 in Cincy down the road.
7.24 Colts: RB Kerwynn Williams
Most people are going to write him off due to his size (5-8, 195), but Williams enters Indy as a very good bet to steal a few touches from Vick Ballard. Williams found his way into playing time in 2011 despite the fact that he was sharing time with Robert Turbin and Michael Smith (TB). Williams isn’t a threat to Ballard’s rushing workload in all likelihood, but he is a solid complement that has a great shot to be the third-down back for the next few years. I personally like him more than Donald Brown and wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being Ballard’s best handcuff.
7.30 Bears: WR Marquess Wilson
College fans with good memories might recall Wilson was the player unafraid to tell the world what he thought of coach Mike Leach. At 6-3 and 195 pounds, Wilson has more than enough length to play in the league, but he needs a bit more bulk. Wilson has drawn comparisons to Jonathan Baldwin, but ironically plays a bit like future teammate Alshon Jeffery in the sense that he uses his size (rather than speed) to beat defenses on jump balls. In reality, he shouldn’t push Jeffery anytime soon, but a WR3 in new HC Marc Trestman’s offense could easily have redraft fantasy value (and Wilson will have a shot to do that).
By: Doug Orth — @ 8:24 pm
4.01 – Eagles: QB Matt Barkley
Hard to argue the value of the pick, although Barkley seems an odd fit in Chip Kelly’s high-speed, read-option offense. With that said, Kelly doesn’t get enough credit for adapting to his talent. Barkley makes sense, however, as a quick decision-maker in an offense that requires it and is as pro-ready as any QB in this draft. Redraft value is minimal, but he needs to be on the radar of dynasty league owners as the likely backup for injury-prone Michael Vick.
4.04 – Jaguars: WR Ace Sanders
Jacksonville is truly doing everything it can to help its QBs. Sanders should have a long career in the slot, but make an instant impact in the return game. Sanders doesn’t have great speed upside, but he is dependable. He’ll go undrafted in redraft leagues and likely warrants only a third-round selection in dynasty rookie drafts.
4.05 – Patriots: WR Josh Boyce
After grabbing their big WR last night, the Pats hope Boyce is the burner they hope will give them the vertical threat they have lacked since Randy Moss‘ departure. Injuries and an unknown training camp status pushed his stock down a bit, but any receiver in the NE offense with Tom Brady under center is on the fantasy radar. He’ll likely go undrafted in redraft leagues, but Boyce has a shot at more dynasty value than we typically expect from a fourth-rounder.
4.09 – Dolphins: TE Dion Sims
Sims rivals Travis Kelce in terms of being the draft’s most complete TE, but lacks Kelce’s upside. Initially, he should be a solid complement to Dustin Keller. He’ll start out as a player who helps the running game more than the passing game, but he has soft-enough hands to be a reliable option in the passing game. Very little redraft appeal here. Keller is on a one-year deal, so there is some dynasty value here down the road.
4.15 – Raiders: QB Tyler Wilson
Entered 2013 as a potential top 10 pick, but the Bobby Petrino fiasco led to a big fallout, which included Wilson getting treated like a punching bag. No one will likely question his toughness anymore. Ideally, Wilson will have a year to lick his wounds while Oakland adds more talent before he takes the field as the starter in 2014. No redraft value here, but Wilson could end up being this draft’s best QB if he returns to the QB he was in 2011.
4.28 – Packers: RB Johnathan Franklin
Eddie Lacy’s stock just took a huge hit. Franklin is perhaps the best all-purpose RB in this draft and fits the Packers’ current offense better than Lacy. With Franklin now on board, the GB backfield likely goes right back to a committee attack. I like Franklin to emerge as the best PPR back from this offense while Lacy get the honors in standard leagues. I believe that will hold up in redraft as well as in dynasty. Both players are still first-round rookie picks in dynasty and probably high-end RB3s in redraft due to the likelihood they will have inconsistent workloads.
4.31 – 49ers:WR Quinton Patton
Patton was insanely productive in the Bulldogs’ uptempo spread attack, but he’s not simply a product of the system. He has a good shot at giving AJ Jenkins a run for his playing time in 2013 and could be the next in line when Anquan Boldin can no longer hold up.
4.34 – 49ers: RB Marcus Lattimore
Lattimore is a luxury pick in the same way “Tank” Carradine and Patton were. The difference here is that despite his devastating knee injuries, Lattimore was the No. 1 talent at his position before he got hurt. SF will likely (hopefully) give him a “redshirt” year and groom him as Frank Gore‘s successor in 2014. No redraft value here barring a miraculous recovery this summer, but his long-term dynasty stock is very high given his supporting cast and talent.
5.07 – Cardinals: RB Stepfan Taylor
New HC Bruce Arians likely had his hand in Indy selecting Vick Ballard last season and Taylor is the same kind of pick. Mendenhall will almost certainly get his 300 touches, but Taylor is a reliable sustainer who could become the RB2 in Arizona if Ryan Williams continues to struggle with injuries. The Cards don’t figure to be a huge source of fantasy points for RBs in 2013 and Taylor won’t likely see enough time to be relevant in redraft. However, Mendy’s one-year contract gives Taylor an opportunity for 2014 production, meaning he could warrant a late-first/early-second pick in dynasty rookie drafts.
5.11 – Saints: WR Kenny Stills
Stills has a bit of Lance Moore in him in the sense that he is a better receiver than what he initially appears. Fantasy receivers (beyond Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham) for the Saints can be a frustrating lot and don’t expect Stills to be any different. Stills will likely have a productive game or two in 2013 that will cause fantasy buzz – because of the offense he’ll be in – but his redraft and dynasty value figures to be a rollercoaster given the number of options in New Orleans.
5.18 – Cowboys: RB Joseph Randle
Randle is about everything you’d expect from a fifth-round RB. He’s a solid, steady producer who doesn’t have a second gear to consistently produce the big play. More importantly, however, is that Randle has shown something that Felix Jones (and DeMarco Murray) have yet to show – durability. There’s a good shot Randle comes across redraft value this year given Murray’s injury history, but he’s not a threat in any way to Murray. Good insurance for Murray in redraft and dynasty leagues, but he doesn’t figure to hold any sustained value.
5.27 – Rams: RB Zac Stacy
This isn’t a high-upside pick by any stretch of the imagination, but neither Daryl Richardson or Isaiah Pead have the kind of size teams like from their short-yardage backs nowadays. It would come as little surprise if Stacy finds himself scoring 4-5 short-yardage scores while Richardson/Pead do their work in between the 20s. Stacy has more value than you’d expect from a player drafted at this spot (No. 160 overall).
5.31 – Dolphins: RB Mike Gillislee
Time to watch some Gillislee game tape. While not a big back (5-11, 208), Gillislee lands in a favorable situation for his fantasy value. Daniel Thomas has failed to improve as a pro runner and Lamar Miller – while talented – is certainly far from proven. Gillislee has an outside shot at stealing about a third of the reps from Miller if comes along a bit more, but he’s more of a fantasy property to keep an eye on for 2014.
5.33 – Dolphins: K Caleb Sturgis
Kickers drafted in the fifth round or higher usually stick on the roster while their veteran counterparts typically do not. In Miami’s vastly improved offense, that will mean something. Sturgis stands a very good shot at being a top 12-15 kicker in redraft leagues this season, assuming he doesn’t fall on his face in training camp.
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