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2013 Fantasy Impact: Reggie Bush Becomes a Lion

By: Dave Stringer — March 13, 2013 @ 10:40 pm

Filed under: Free Agents, Player Analysis

Bush’s PPR value is on the rise.

With the free agent market at running back lacking quality, the Detroit Lions moved quickly to address their need at the position, agreeing to terms with former Dolphin Reggie Bush.

Reports indicate that Bush will sign a four-year deal worth $16 million.

Detroit’s interest in Bush comes as no surprise to league observers, as the team had shown plenty of signs that it had given up on former second-round pick Jahvid Best due to his history of concussions and their need to add playmaking ability at the running back position.

Arguably the most talented running back available in free agency, Bush will assume the starter’s role in Detroit ahead of Mikel Leshoure, who had a disappointing sophomore campaign after missing all of his rookie season due to an Achilles tendon tear.

After five largely disappointing and injury-plagued seasons in New Orleans, Bush joined Miami prior to the 2011 season and topped 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career. In 2012, he played in all 16 games for the first time since 2006, finishing just shy of consecutive 1000-yard seasons with 986 rushing yards.

Fantasy Impact

In Miami, Bush finished 2011 as the 12th-ranked fantasy running back, dropping a couple of notches to 14th this past season as he clearly established himself as a quality lead runner for the first time in his career. Those were impressive feats given his previous production in New Orleans coupled with the lack of playmakers and questionable quarterback play in Miami.

The Lions clearly don’t have the offensive issues that Bush had to deal with in Miami. With Calvin Johnson lining up out wide and strong-armed Matthew Stafford at quarterback, opposing defenses will have to pick their poison, and it is safe to assume they will choose to double cover Johnson rather than Bush.

That should translate into Bush facing fewer eight-man fronts, as well as having plenty of open space in the passing game. It should be noted that he hasn’t topped 45 receptions since the 2009 season and failed to reach 300 receiving yards in each of the last three years.

Expect those trends to change in 2013 given the Lions reliance on their running backs in the passing game. Bush should approach 1,000 rushing yards and 400 receiving yards provided he remains healthy. Throw in seven or eight touchdowns and he would rate as a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 in 2013.

If you’re looking for red flags, there are a couple. First off, Leshoure is a solid short-yardage back and Joique Bell isn’t a slouch in that area either. Their presence will cut down on Bush’s looks inside the 5-yard line. Secondly, Bush’s injury history can’t be ignored (20 missed games during his tenure in New Orleans), although he did miss just one game during his two-year stay with Miami.

Given Bush’s solid upside and recent run of good health, fantasy owners should feel comfortable drafting him as an upper tier RB2 in 2013.

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Free Agent Frenzy – Day 1

By: Mike Krueger — @ 10:11 am

Filed under: Free Agents, Player Analysis

Whew. It was quite a day as the NFL kicked off the calendar year with over 50 players changing teams. Here’s a quick recap of the fantasy highlights…

Quarterbacks

After a very public phone conversation between Buffalo GM Buddy Nix and Tampa Bay GM Mark Dominik, in which Nix was heard longing for a franchise QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick got cut… Hmmm. Expect the Bills to go after a QB early in the draft. They have pick No. 8.

Chase Daniel, backup to Drew Brees in New Orleans, signed in KC. He’ll backup Alex Smith as the trade between the 49ers and Chiefs will be filed with the league today.

Running Backs

All was quiet on the RB front on Tuesday. We’ll be watching Steven Jackson and Reggie Bush closely today. As we speak, Bush is paying a visit to Detroit while it appears the Packers may have cooled on Jackson.

The Pittsburgh Steelers tendered offers Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman allowing them to match any offers they receive in free agency. Dwyer and Redman will likely share duties at running back for the Steelers in 2013 unless the Steelers pursue a free agent running back or address the position in the draft. This is a fantasy situation will have more clarity by the time training camp comes around in late July.

The Giants re-signed Ryan Torain. He’ll provide depth behind David Wilson and Andre Brown.

Wide Receivers

Wallace to Miami. The biggest move of the day was expected.

The Dolphins got their man for 5 years, $60 million with $30 million guaranteed. Mike Wallace will provide a much-needed lift to Miami’s offense but his fantasy value may have taken a hit into the low-end WR2 territory.

Surprisingly, Jerome Simpson was re-signed by the Vikings. They currently have the worst wide receiving corps in the league after trading Percy Harvin to Seattle.

Darrius Heyward-Bey got the axe in Oakland while the Jets retained Santonio Holmes. Holmes battled foot problems last season and didn’t play a snap past Week 4. His guarantee for 2013 ($7.5 million) forced the Jets to keep his services. On a team in rebuilding mode, Holmes will be a very risky WR3 in fantasy drafts this summer.

Tight Ends

Some interesting moves in this category. Jared Cook landed in St. Louis and judging by the contract he got (5 years, $31 million, $19 million guaranteed) he should be a focal point of the offense. His fantasy stock is on the rise.

Martellus Bennett left the Giants for Chicago and gives Cutler a legitimate receiving threat at the position.

Anthony Fasano was signed by Kansas City. He will be paired with the oft-inured Tony Moeaki. While Andy Reid likes to use the tight end position, neither will have much fantasy value unless one is thrust into a clear starting role.

The Titans lost Cook but gained Delanie Walker from San Francisco (4 years, $17.5 million, $8.6 guaranteed). He hasn’t had a chance to be a primary target at his position and is better known for his blocking ability. He’ll likely share time with Taylor Thompson.

Day 2

Guys we’re keeping our eye on include Reggie Bush, Steven Jackson, Greg Jennings, Wes Welker and Danny Amendola. The frenzy is under way.

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Percy Harvin Gets His Wish – Fantasy Impact

By: Mike Krueger — March 12, 2013 @ 8:57 am

Filed under: Player Analysis, Transactions

Harvin wanted out of Minnesota. He got his wish on Monday.

The day before free agency proved to be an eventful one, with a number of teams making moves in preparation for the frenzy set to come. No move was bigger than Percy Harvin being dealt by the Vikings to the Seahawks for, reportedly, a trio of draft picks including Seattle’s first-round pick (#25 overall) and seventh-round pick in 2013, plus a mid-round pick next season—rumored to be a third-round selection.

Harvin has had a rocky ride during his four years in Minnesota, often at odds with management about playing time, injuries and his contract. He suffered a sprained ankle in Week 9 and was placed on IR in Week 14, never to return to the team despite the Vikings making it to the playoffs and losing to the Packers during the Wild Card round. Even though head coach Leslie Frazier was saying all the right things, by season’s end it was clear Harvin’s days were numbered in Minnesota.

Harvin’s move to Seattle will reunite him with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, who was with Minnesota when they drafted Harvin in 2009. This move works on a lot of levels for the Seahawks, giving them a smaller, quicker, multi-talented weapon on offense to pair with the bigger Sidney Rice. Harvin will also add game-breaking ability in the return game. Nobody has had more kick-return touchdowns (5) since 2009 than Harvin.

Fantasy Impact

Vikings – Christian Ponder is a QB2 who just lost his best receiver. He’s damaged fantasy goods until further notice.

This move leaves the receiving corps in Minnesota without a leader. With Jerome Simpson testing the free agent market, Jarius Wright and Stephen Burton and their 27 combined catches would be lining up outside if the Vikings were to play today. Expect Minnesota to be active in free agency, pursuing the likes of Greg Jennings, Danny Amendola or even the expensive Victor Cruz, who comes with a hefty first-round pick price tag.

Tight End Kyle Rudolph’s value holds steady but could use the assistance of a proven threat on the outside. If the Vikings choose to address their receiver needs through the draft and fail to get a proven wideout, Rudolph will be a marked man by defenses in 2013.

Seahawks – Russell Wilson gets the biggest fantasy boost from this trade. His stock was already on the rise after averaging 31.3 fantasy points over his last five games (including the playoffs). He now has one of the most explosive weapons in the league at his disposal, giving the Seahawks a very balanced offensive attack. Wilson is shaping up as a low-end QB1 in the 8–12 range.

Harvin was my #4 ranked fantasy wideout last preseason and was on his way to living up to the ranking until injury struck in Week 9. The benefits of a familiar voice on staff and a new contract stroking his ego will serve Harvin well, but posting 110 catches and 1,200+ receiving yards will be a challenge. Those numbers he was on pace for prior to injury last season will be difficult to come by in Seattle with a capable Sidney Rice on the outside and Golden Tate a viable third receiving option. I do expect Harvin to lead the team in receiving and give fantasy owners bonus points in the running game, but a low-end WR1 in the 10–15 range is likely his ceiling unless the Seahawks make a conscious effort to open up their offense, which ranked last in pass attempts with 405 last season.

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Chiefs Revive Niners’ QB Pipeline with Trade for Smith

By: Doug Orth — March 1, 2013 @ 6:04 pm

Filed under: Forecast, NFL Draft, Player Analysis, Transactions

Throughout their history, few teams have shown more disregard to developing quarterbacks through the draft than the Kansas City Chiefs. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, only three quarterbacks drafted by the Chiefs – Mike Livingston (1969-79), Steve Fuller (1979-82) and Todd Blackledge (1983-87) – won a game for the franchise. Put another way, Blackledge – in 1987 – was the last quarterback selected by Kansas City to win a game for the Chiefs.

Another San Francisco QB is headed to Kansas City.

Over that time, one trend has developed: Kansas City typically has a need for a quarterback and the San Francisco 49ers typically have a signal-caller to spare. Even though the transaction cannot be made official until March 12, the teams essentially wrapped up a deal on Wednesday to send Alex Smith to the Chiefs in exchange for a second-round pick in the upcoming draft (the 34th pick) plus a conditional third-rounder in 2014 that can escalate to an additional second-rounder. Smith is the latest Niner-turned-Chief quarterback on a list that includes Steve DeBerg, Joe Montana, Steve Bono and Elvis Grbac. Shockingly, former San Francisco quarterbacks have accounted for 95 of the franchise’s 404 wins – 34 more than the aforementioned trio of KC-drafted field generals.

But that is enough of the historical significance. New HC Andy Reid and GM John Dorsey had little choice but to pursue the most established veteran quarterback on the market in a year where the incoming rookie class doesn’t appear to possess a single must-have talent at the position. Combined with Reid’s history of developing quarterbacks and the fact he holds Smith in high regard, the Chiefs can make the case their new employee is a battle-tested quarterback that is a proven winner. Furthermore, the overall compensation for Smith wasn’t quite what it was for Matt Schaub or Kevin Kolb – other veteran quarterbacks less accomplished than Smith when they were traded.

Reid stated in his opening press conference the Chiefs needed to find the next Len Dawson, who incidentally was another quarterback the franchise did not draft (selected and traded by the Steelers to the Browns, who later released him). Few Kansas City fans will argue that Matt Cassel needed to go and Smith is an upgrade – even if he has earned a reputation as a “game manager”. (Anyone who watched the Chiefs’ offense last season should be able to appreciate a quarterback who can manage a game.) Whether the “game manager” tag is an appropriate one is a discussion for another day, but what Smith does have for the first time in years is a front office that is invested in him and a coach that has publicly stated that he has long been a Smith fan.

Fantasy Impact
So the question becomes: will fantasy owners join Reid aboard the Smith bandwagon? Just as importantly, how does his arrival affect the fantasy fortunes of players such as Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe (if he returns to the team)?

Smith was in the midst of a career year in 2012 before a Week 9 concussion effectively ended his 49er career and gave birth to the rise of second-year stud Colin Kaepernick. How much of his “late development” stemmed from the fact he worked under seven different offensive coordinators and how much of it was the coaching and confidence he received from HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman? It’s a fair question. In fact, I think most people would agree that after seven seasons and 75 NFL starts, we still really don’t know who Alex Smith is or what he could become. If only for that reason, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Smith is about as much of a wild-card as there is entering the 2013 season.

Fortunately, we do know that Reid has admitted on several occasions he can’t help himself when it comes to the passing game. As a result, there is a very good chance Smith will set career highs across the board. Another factor in Smith’s favor is that Reid has consistently received a lot of production from his quarterbacks, even taking a strong-armed option quarterback out of Syracuse in Donovan McNabb and molding him into an efficient West Coast passer. Therefore, I think that while learning yet another system isn’t likely to yield immediate results, most of us can agree Smith is transitioning from one quarterback-friendly offense to another.

In regards to his new supporting cast, it’s hard to believe the biggest beneficiary from the Reid-Smith marriage will not be Charles. While the NFL’s fourth-leading rusher this season is a bit more reliant on speed and a bit less reliant on elusiveness than Brian Westbrook or LeSean McCoy, all of them are accomplished receivers. Given the fact that the 2013 Chiefs would look a lot like Reid’s early teams (without DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin) if Bowe leaves via free agency – and more like the Eagles prior to Maclin’s arrival if Bowe stays – there’s every reason to believe Charles will be a 50-60 catch player either way. Charles’ fantasy outlook was going to be better than in 2012 because of the way Reid utilizes his backs, but a solid Smith can only help his week-to-week consistency.

Bowe makes the most interesting fantasy case. In this whole San Francisco-Philadelphia dynamic, he compares most favorably to Michael Crabtree. When focused and properly motivated, however, Bowe could be the most dominant wide receiver that Smith has thrown to in his career and the second-most dominant one Reid has coached. I can only assume Reid received some kind of assurance from management that Bowe would remain a Chief – be it via a new contract or the franchise tag – before he took the job or else the new coach is open to the idea of seeing his new quarterback start out the same way McNabb did (with the likes of Charles Johnson, Torrance Small, James Thrash and Todd Pinkston serving as the main receivers). Since I doubt the latter is the case, Bowe has a chance to be the first high-volume receiver Reid has coached since Terrell Owens. While that level of production is unlikely, it could happen – Bowe has already flashed that kind of ability.

In closing, the Chiefs either made a savvy move in trading for a “proven” veteran in a year where the rookie quarterback talent pool appears to lack a clear-cut “franchise quarterback” or severely overpaid because need trumped common sense. If Smith’s last two seasons were a sign that he was just a late bloomer that needed someone to believe in him, then Kansas City took a significant step forward with this move. While the price was to acquire was a bit steep in my opinion, I have little doubt that Smith will be at least serviceable in reality and fantasy, pending any improvements the Chiefs make at receiver this offseason. Assuming Bowe returns, Smith should be a viable QB2 in 12-team leagues in 2013 while a happy Bowe could easily return to top 10 WR status.

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2013 Early Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends

By: Dave Stringer — January 18, 2013 @ 9:11 pm

Filed under: Forecast, Player Analysis

1. Jimmy Graham, Saints – Graham saw his FPts/G average drop from 12.3 in 2011 to 10.1 this past season but still shapes as the top rated fantasy tight end for 2013 with Sean Payton and Drew Brees leading the charge in New Orleans.

2. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – Here’s what I said last year in assessing Gronk as the number two tight end: “He’s a beast but is he a beast that can stay healthy?” After two broken arms in 2012, that assessment holds.

3. Jason Witten, Cowboys – Witten was a PPR demon in 2012 with a career-high 110 receptions for 1,039 yards (the second-highest total of his career) and three touchdowns. For a player who has had such an illustrious career, it is hard to believe that he has topped six receiving touchdowns just twice ten years and that limits his fantasy upside.

Olsen enters 2013 as a borderline top-five fantasy tight end.

4. Greg Olsen, Panthers – In 2012, Olsen finally fulfilled the promise the Bears saw in him when they used a late 1st round pick to grab him in the 2007 draft, hauling in 69 receptions for 843 yards (both career highs) and five touchdowns. The Panthers will have a new offensive coordinator in 2013 but expect more of the same from Olsen.

5. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – Injuries limited Hernandez to a career-low 10 games in 2012 as he racked up 51 receptions for 483 yards and five touchdowns. His FPts/G averaged dropped 1.7 points to 7.8 but expect more in 2013. However, with Wes Welker likely back in the fold, Hernandez is barely hanging onto top-five status at tight end.

6. Owen Daniels, Texans – Daniels started the season strong with 555 receiving yards and six touchdowns in his first 10 games before slumping badly over in his last five (just 161 receiving yards – he missed one game). At 30 years of age, Daniels isn’t likely to improve on his production in 2013.

7. Dennis Pitta, Ravens – Pitta was the epitome of streaky in his breakout 2012 campaign, totaling 94 of his 109 fantasy points in eight games. Look for more production as he enters his fourth year in the league but expect the inconsistency to remain.

8. Brandon Myers, Raiders – Myers was a waiver wire find in 2012, finishing the season with the 5th most receiving yards amongst tight ends and as the 9th ranked fantasy player at his position. A free agent, Myers is expected back in Oakland and shapes up as a top-10 fantasy tight end in 2013.

9. Fred Davis, Redskins – An Achilles injury ended Davis 2012 season prematurely but he remains a young, talented tight end capable of putting together a breakout season in 2013. If only RGII had stayed healthy.

10.Vernon Davis, 49ers – Mercedes Benz talent, Lada production (am I dating myself there?) Davis has seen his yardage and touchdown total decline every season since his career-year in 2009 (965 yards and 13 touchdowns). With Michael Crabtree emerging as Colin Kaepernick’s favorite target, Davis rates as a low end TE1 in 2013. After a solid first game with Kaepernick under center (83 yards and a score), Davis managed just six receptions for 61 yards over his final six regular season contests.

11.Jermaine Gresham, Bengals – Gresham has improved upon his reception and yardage count in each of his three season but his performance still leaves something to be desired. At some point, a breakout seems likely but I’m not sold it will happen in 2013.

12. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings – With nine touchdowns, Rudolph was tied with Graham for the second most touchdowns amongst tight ends. Unfortunately, his yardage total was a bit of a bust with just 493 receiving yards, the third lowest total amongst the league’s top 25 ranked fantasy tight ends. As you know, relying on touchdown production is generally a recipe for fantasy disaster.

13.Antonio Gates, Chargers – Gates couldn’t blame injuries for his poor performance this season as he put up his lowest FPts/G average since his rookie season way back in 2003. His reception total, total yards and touchdowns were either the lowest of the last nine years or tied for it. He also failed to top 59 receiving yards in 14 out of 15 games. Let the pylon in your pool grab Gates earlier than he should go.

Others to consider are the Steelers Heath Miller (recovering from a late season torn ACL), Jermichael Finley (the Packers perennial tease) and Tony Gonzalez (is he really going to retire?).

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Former Eagles Coach Andy Reid to Join the Chiefs – Fantasy Impact

By: Dave Stringer — January 4, 2013 @ 4:41 pm

Filed under: Forecast, Player Analysis

Reports indicate that former Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid will be joining the Kansas City Chiefs for the 2013 season.

With Reid in tow, the Chiefs jettisoned general manager Scott Pioli, who was unable to build a playoff caliber roster over the past four seasons. Pioli had a strong hand in running the organization and would have had to accept a reduced role with Reid likely to have final say on personnel matters as the Chiefs head coach.

Pioli compiled a 23-41 record with one playoff appearance during his tenure in Kansas City which was marked with a number of questionable personnel decisions, including the decisions to trade for quarterback Matt Cassel and linebacker Mike Vrabel, trade away Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez and use the 3rd pick in the 2009 draft on Tyson Jackson.

Piolo also refused to re-sign the team’s own free agents including cornerback Brandon Carr and failed to reach a long-term contract extension with wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, even though free agent signee Steve Breaston had failed to produce and 2011 1st round pick Jonathan Baldwin had failed to develop.

It is expected that the Chiefs will hire either former Cleveland general manager Tom Heckert or John Dorsey, Green Bay’s director of college scouting, to fulfill the general manager’s role. Reid has ties to both Heckert and Dorsey.

In Reid, the Chiefs acquire a head coach with a long history of success, having compiled a 130-94 record during his 14 seasons in Philadelpia. While Reid’s teams were consistently solid, they failed to win a Super Bowl, losing Super Bowl XXXIX in 2004 and losing in the NFC Championship Game four other times.

Fantasy Impact

Don't worry fantasy owners, there will be plenty of touches for Charles in Andy Reid's offense.

In Kansas City, Reid inherits a team with issues at the quarterback position, a dynamic running back in Jamaal Charles, the makings of a solid offensive line and uncertainty at the wide receiver position with the pending free agency of Bowe.

With Michael Vick unlikely to return to the Eagles and Kevin Kolb not likely back in Arizona, Reid could decide to reunite with one of his former quarterbacks while grooming a replacement taken in this year’s upcoming draft. Cassel is not likely to be retained.

That would solidify the team’s offense and improve the Chiefs chances of re-signing Bowe, the type of big, playmaking receiver that Reid rarely had in Philadelphia outside of Terrell Owens. With a veteran quarterback running Reid’s version of the West Coast offense, Bowe’s production could approach his career year in 2010 when he caught 72 passes for 1,162 yards and 15 touchdowns, which would make him a mid-tier WR1.

Tight end Tony Moeaki could also see his production increase given Reid’s ability to generate passing yardage in the screen game, an area the athletic Moeaki could excel in.

With Baldwin having done little to justify his selection in the first round of the 2011 draft and Breaston having caught just seven passes in 2012, the Chiefs are expected to replenish the wide receiver position in the draft or free agency.

At running back, Reid has generally chosen to go with one player in a workhorse role and that means that Jamaal Charles is likely in line for plenty of touches in 2013. The Eagles LeSean McCoy topped 1,600 total yards in each of the 2010 and 2011 seasons while totaling 29 touchdowns. Even though Reid has shown a propensity to throw the ball more than any other coach, his running backs have generally been solid producers.

Charles’ career-high in touchdowns is eight (during the 2009 and 2010 seasons) and that should increase with Reid calling the Chiefs plays. Consider Charles a mid to low tier RB1 in 2013.

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2013 Early Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs

By: Dave Stringer — @ 12:12 pm

Filed under: Forecast, Player Analysis

Entering the 2012 season, the consensus had evolved that the stud RB draft strategy was essentially dead in the water in re-draft leagues due to the lack of quality options at the position after you got past the top seven or eight players.

That line of reasoning proved correct as the top eight players at the position managed to top 210 fantasy points (Jamaal Charles put up that total) with the Vikings Adrian Peterson putting up an astonishing 309 points despite returning from an ACL injury suffered late in the 2011 season.

After that, there was little reason to reach for a running back as the point differential from the 9th ranked fantasy running back to the 21st player at the position was just 52 points.

In 2012, waiting to grab your low end RB1 all the way down to a low end RB2 likely paid off.

Expect more of the same in 2013 with several question marks at the position as we enter what proves to be another intriguing offseason.

1. Arian Foster, Texans – Despite getting 60 more touches in 2012 (391 vs. 331), Foster’s total yards dropped from 1,841 to 1,628 as his usage (drop in receptions by 13 to 40) and effectiveness as a receiver (11.6 yards per reception in 2011 vs. 5.4 in 2012) both declined. Foster still managed more fantasy points this season courtesy of 17 touchdowns. He remains in consideration as the league’s top all purpose threat at running back and 2013’s top ranked fantasy running back. Sorry, AP fans.

You'll need the first or second pick if you want to land AP in 2013.

2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings – With Percy Harvin on the shelf for much of 2012, the Vikings turned to Peterson and he was lights out, finishing just eight yards shy of matching Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing mark of 2,105. Over his last ten games, AP had 1,598 rushing yards to go along with ten rushing touchdowns as defenses couldn’t stop him even with eight and nine players in the box. He’s likely to be the consensus top rated fantasy running back but not here as his career-high touches in 2012 and unsettled situation at wide receiver keep AP at number two. It’s worth noting that the five previous 2,000-yard rushers combined to average 1,072 rushing yards in the following season.

3. Ray Rice, Ravens – With the Ravens moving to more of a passing attack, Rice was solid in 2012 but not quite as spectacular as he was in 2011. His total yards dropped to 1,621 as well as his touchdowns (10 from 15 in 2011). Rice’s rushing and receiving yardage were his worst since his rookie season in 2008. This is where the second tier of fantasy running backs begins.

4. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – Lynch finished the year with a career-high 1,590 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, one off his previous high set in 2011. Once the Seahawks offensive line started to gel at mid-season, he got on a hot streak, totaling 941 rushing yards and nine touchdowns over Seattle’s final nine games. Don’t expect much to change in 2013, making Lynch a top five fantasy back once again.

5. Doug Martin, Bucs – The Bucs traded back into the 1st round to grab Martin to pound the ball at opposing defenses and he did nothing to disappoint them in his rookie season. The Boise State product totaled 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground to go along with 472 yards and a score as a receiver. Martin relegated LeGarrette Blount to pure backup status and emerged as the top rookie running back in 2012. With Schiano back in 2013, expect Martin to once again approach 400 total touches (368 this year) and his fantasy production to remain steady.

6. LeSean McCoy, Eagles – McCoy was a big disappointment in 2012, finishing the year with 1,213 total yards and just five touchdowns in 12 games. With the Eagles offense unable to get in sync and left tackle Jason Peters out for the year, McCoy wasn’t the same player he was in 2011 when he finished the season with over 1,600 total yards and 20 touchdowns. A concussion caused him to miss four games near the end of the season. With Nick Foles likely taking over at quarterback, there is some risk that the Eagles offense will struggle once again in 2013.

7. Trent Richardson, Browns – Despite playing two-thirds of the season with broken ribs, Richardson put together an impressive rookie campaign despite playing in an inconsistent Browns offense. He totaled nearly 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground while contributing 51 receptions for 372 yards and a score as a receiver. While there will be a new head coach in Cleveland in 2013, one thing is for certain and that is that Richardson will get the ball plenty. With improvement from Brandon Weeden at quarterback and a pair of emerging wide receivers in Josh Gordon and Greg Little, the Browns offense could surprise next season.

8. C.J. Spiller, Bills – If you had to rank the reasons why Chan Gailey was given his walking papers by the Bills, his refusal to hand the starting reigns to Spiller has to rank at or near the top. Despite averaging 6.0 yards per carry and 10.7 yards per reception, Spiller only had 250 touches in 2012, gaining over 1,700 yards. Duh. Spiller finished as the 7th ranked fantasy running back and figures to be in that vicinity once again in 2013.

9. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – His season stat line was impressive (1,513 rushing yards, 236 receiving yards and six touchdowns) but owning Charles was an exercise in fantasy frustration in 2012. His production was wildly inconsistent (six games with less than seven fantasy points and 52.1% of his fantasy production coming in four games) as the Chiefs confounded pundits by limiting him to 16 or fewer touches in seven games. Question marks at quarterback and wide receiver (Dwayne Bowe is an unrestricted free agent) hinder Charles’ fantasy value.

10. Chris Johnson, Titans – After starting the season slowly with 108 total yards in his first three games, CJ2K (does that nickname still fit?) came on, totaling 1,361 total yards and six touchdowns over his final 13 games. The Titans offensive line was a mess and Jake Locker failed to emerge at quarterback but Johnson didn’t help matters by consistently trying for the big run rather than taking what the defense gave him. He has the potential to emerge as the top ranked fantasy rusher but his inconsistency is bound to drive his fantasy owners crazy.

11. Matt Forte, Bears – If it seemed like the Bears weren’t using Forte correctly in 2012, it’s because they weren’t. After the season general manager Phil Emery called out the team’s former coaching staff for Forte’s lack of use and effectiveness as a receiver, as he had career lows in receptions (44) and yards (340) while averaging just 7.7 yards per reception, the 2nd lowest average of his career. Expect Forte to be used more by the Bears new coaching staff and for him to emerge as a low-end RB1 in 2013.

12. Alfred Morris, Redskins – Where or where do you rank Alfred Morris? The rookie 6th round pick had an outstanding season, finishing the year as the 5th ranked fantasy running back with 1,606 rushing yards (2nd in the league) and 13 rushing touchdowns (also 2nd). Unfortunately, Morris was persona non grata as a receiver with just 11 receptions for 77 yards and we are all aware of head coach Mike Shanahan’s penchant for his brief love affairs with his running backs.

13. Stevan Ridley, Patriots – Ridley enjoyed a breakout season in 2012, finishing as the 10th ranked fantasy running back with 1,263 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. The issue with Patriots back over the last few years had been their inconsistent usage but Ridley was surprisingly consistent in 2012, gaining eight or more fantasy points in 12 of 16 games.

14. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars – After years of heavy use, MJD got a break in 2012 as a foot injury limited him to just six games. The limited use should prove to be helpful as he carried the ball more than any running back form 2009 to 2011. However, the Jaguars offense remains a mess with a questionable quarterback situation which limits MJD’s upside,

15. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys – Murray looks great when he’s healthy but that hasn’t been often during his two-year career as he has missed 13 games. A sprained foot suffered in Week 6 caused him to miss six games and his production suffered behind a bad Cowboys offensive line, limiting him to just 66.3 rushing yards per game in the ten games that he was healthy. Murray topped 100 yards in Week 1 but not again and his fantasy upside is limited by his injury issues, the team’s offensive line and the Cowboys propensity for throwing the ball.

16. Ryan Mathews, Chargers – There weren’t many bigger busts than Mathews in 2012 as he failed to live up to the Chargers offseason predictions that he would emerge as one of the league’s top talents at running back and remain healthy even with a planned increase in his workload. Mathews broke his right clavicle in the preseason and by midseason, the Chargers had clearly abandoned the heavy workload plan in an attempt to keep him healthy. A broken left clavicle in Week 15 ruined that plan and Mathews finished the year with just 707 yards on the ground to go along with a 3.8 yards per carry average and just a single touchdown.

17. Darren McFadden, Raiders – We’re into the huge talent, huge injury concern portion of the rankings with Run DMC up next. Despite playing in five more games in 2012 than in 2011 (12 vs. 7), he managed to increase his yardage total by just 197 as he was held to a career-low 3.3 yards per carry. McFadden didn’t seem to gel with the Raiders new zone-blocking scheme, whose ineffectiveness caused offensive coordinator Greg Knapp to be sent packing. Look for the Raiders to return to a power rushing attack in 2013 but a breakout season for McFadden seems unlikely given that he has missed 23 games over his five-year career.

18. Frank Gore, 49ers – Gore didn’t fall off the cliff in 2012 as many expected, finishing the season with 1,212 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, nearly identical totals as he put up in 2011. Gore will turn 30 prior to the 2013 season but neither Kendall Hunter nor LaMichael James seems ready to assume starting duties, making Gore a solid RB2 next season.

19. Reggie Bush, Dolphins – Bush will be playing somewhere in 2012 but it’s anybody’s guess as to where. Miami is clearly desperate for playmakers so a return to the Dolphins seems in order but the team has a pair of young backs in Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas that it may wish to develop. Bush fell just 14 yards shy of hitting the 1,000 rushing yard mark for the 2nd consecutive season but he still managed a solid 4.3 yards per carry on the ground while averaging 8.3 yards per catch. At 28 on opening day, Bush has lots of gas left in the tank.

20. Steven Jackson, Rams – Despite ceding touches and playing time to 7th round pick Daryl Richardson, Sjax topped 1,000 rushing yards for the 8th consecutive season, finishing the year as the 17th ranked fantasy running back. He also remained productive in the passing game with 321 receiving yards but managed just four total touchdowns for the season as the Rams struggled on offense. His contract situation is a question mark but expect Jackson to return to St. Louis in 2013 and approach 300 touches once again next season.

21. Darren Sproles, Saints – Coming off a 2011 season in which he set career highs in rushing yards, receiving yards and touchdowns, Sproles was a marginal disappointment in 2012 as a broken hand limited him to just 13 games. His PPG dropped from 11.6 to a still respectable 10.7 but his usage in the running game declined. With Sean Payton likely back in New Orleans in 2013, look for Sproles to put together another solid season.

22. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals – The Law Firm topped 1,000 rushing yards for the second time in 2012, as he finished the season strongly with four 100 yard games and 543 rushing yards between Weeks 11-15. Unfortunately, he remains a plodding runner, averaging under 4.0 yards per carry for the 2nd consecutive season. The Bengals clearly like him but with multiple 1st round picks in tow may decide that an upgrade at running back is in order.

23. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants – Bradshaw looks good and runs hard when he’s healthy but that hasn’t been often enough for the Giants liking. He topped 1,000 rushing yards for the 2nd time this season but both Andre Brown and rookie 1st round pick David Wilson showed flashes of brilliance, clouding Bradshaw’s future with the Giants. His return is likely but not guaranteed.

24. Mikel Leshoure, Lions – Leshoure was merely decent in 2012, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and gaining 798 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. He displayed some ability as a receiver with 34 receptions but ceded playing time to journeyman Joique Bell during the season, a sign the Lions weren’t satisfied with his performance. With Jahvid Best’s return in doubt, Leshoure figures to get one more crack at solidifying his hold on the starting job in 2013.

25. Shonn Greene, Jets – A free agent at season’s end, Greene set career highs in rushing attempts (276), rushing yards (1,063) and rushing touchdowns (eight) in his contract year. Unfortunately, he looked like the same old Shonn Greene plodding his way to a 3.8 yards per carry average. With little behind him on the depth chart, look for him to remain a Jet in 2013.

26. Mark Ingram, Saints – After two seasons in which he averaged 3.9 yards per carry and totaled 1,076 rushing yards, it is safe to say the Saints nabbing Ingram late in the 1st round of the 2011 draft was a mistake. The sunny side up crowd can point to his production over the last four games (250 rushing yards) as hope for 2013 but Ingram no better than a RB3 entering next season.

27. Fred Jackson, Bills – 2013 looks like the year Fjax will cede the starting job to C.J. Spiller. Jackson remains a talented player but the Bills offense sorely needs the playmaking ability which Spiller supplies and that should relinquish Jackson to backup duties. Even then, he should see enough touches to be a solid RB3 or flex option. It’s not like the Bills are loaded with other options at the offensive skill positions.

28. Vick Ballard, Colts – Ballard isn’t ever going to get in the conversation discussing the league’s top backs but the 2012 5th round pick had a solid rookie season with 814 rushing yards and 152 passing yards as he nudged his way to the starting job throughout the course of the season. He averaged 67.9 rushing yards over the Colts final 11 games and would have been a low end RB2 if not for his paltry touchdown total (two). Donald Brown and Delone Carter both return in 2013 but the starting gig is Ballard’s to lose.

29. Willis McGahee, Broncos – On the plus side, McGahee performed well in 2012, gaining 731 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 4.4 yards per carry during the ten games he played. Unfortunately, a torn MCL ended his season and backup Knowshon Moreno performed just as well in his absence, gaining 668 yards and scoring three times over the Broncos final six games. Expect a timeshare in 2013 with 2012 3rd round pick Ronnie Hillman also getting in on the action.

30. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos – See above. The Broncos backfield looks like it will resemble the Panthers backfield in 2013

31. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers – Ah, the Panthers backfield. Three solid running backs plus the league’s top rushing quarterback. Williams at least stayed healthy in 2011 and was solid down the stretch with 517 total yards and four touchdowns in his last four games.

32. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – See above. Stewart appeared to be the Panthers back to own in 2011 courtesy of his superior pass catching ability but this dude just can’t stay healthy.

33. Michael Turner, Falcons –With little tread left and a $5.5-million salary, Turner may not return to the Falcons in 2013. He averaged a career-low 3.6 yards per carry in 2012 with Atlanta turning into more of a passing team. There were several games where Turner was an afterthought in the game plan and it won’t be a surprise if the Falcons jettison the 30-year old prior to next season.

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2013 Early Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks

By: Dave Stringer — January 2, 2013 @ 11:05 am

Filed under: Forecast, Player Analysis

At this point of the fantasy season, most fantasy owners are pondering the what ifs, could have beens and what was I thinking’s. Since it’s good to only dwell on a lost season for so long (hey, losing can teach all of us something), let’s turn the focus to the endless possibilities that exist in 2013.

As in, 2013 fantasy football domination. Up first are the quarterbacks.

The weapons are endless for Brady.

1. Tom Brady, Patriots – Even if Wes Welker doesn’t return, Brady has more than enough weapons to be the top ranked fantasy quarterback in 2013.

2. Drew Brees, Saints – Most likely gets his buddy and head coach Sean Payton back next year and it’s likely going to be a pass heavy offense in New Orleans given the state of the team’s running backs.

3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Not willing to hand him the number one ranking given that wide receiver Greg Jennings and tight end Jermichael Finley are unlikely to return to Green Bay. With Jennings injured and Finley inconsistent, Rodgers’ fantasy stock took a hit in 2012.

4. Cam Newton, Panthers – Didn’t show a pile of improvement as a passer in 2012 but piled up the fantasy points on the ground and that’s not likely to change next year. Bit of a risk at wide receiver with the aging Steve Smith leading the way for Carolina.

5. Robert Griffin III, Redskins – Injury risk is there but he was dynamite as a rookie in both the passing and rushing departments despite missing leading wide receiver Pierre Garcon for a large portion of the season. Might have hit 1,000 rushing yards had he not suffered a late season knee injury.

6. Andrew Luck, Colts – The hotshot rookie showed he is the real deal in 2012, leading the Colts to a surprising winning record and playoff spot. Luck set the rookie record for passing yards and a long string of 4,000-yard seasons seems certain.

7. Matt Ryan, Falcons – The Falcons will return in 2013 with what is likely the best wide receiver tandem in the league in Roddy White and Julio Jones but tight end Tony Gonzalez has vowed to retire, hurting Ryan’s fantasy prognosis for next season.

8. Peyton Manning, Broncos – Young wide receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas are only going to get better and Manning’s production should benefit from having a year under his belt in Denver.

9. Matthew Stafford, Lions – Immaturity, inexperience and injury hurt the Lions at wide receiver in 2012 and Stafford suffered as his touchdown passes plummeted from the 41 he put up in 2011.

10. Eli Manning, Giants – He has to be in the top 12, right? Right? Look for a bounce back season for Eli in 2013 on the assumption that Hakeem Nicks can maintain better health than he did in 2012.

11. Tony Romo, Cowboys – Romo will likely set a career high in passing yards in 2012 as he benefitted from the emergence of wide receiver Dez Bryant and the continued strong play of tight end Jason Witten. However, his interception total caused his touchdown pass totals to drop as did the team’s poor rushing attack for much of the season. A renaissance season from Miles Austin would go a long way in helping Romo’s fantasy value.

12. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers – With the wide receiver position solidified with the signing of Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams’ comeback season, Freeman figures to set career highs in passing yards and touchdowns in 2013. Those players plus Doug Martin and a solid offensive line figure to give the Bucs plenty of years of solid offensive production.

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